remote sensing Article Analysis of the Effects of Drought on Vegetation Cover in a Mediterranean Region through the Use of SPOT-VGT and TERRA-MODIS Long Time Series Mehrez Zribi 1, *, Ghofrane Dridi 2 , Rim Amri 1,3 and Zohra Lili-Chabaane 3 1 2 3 * CESBIO-Centre d’Études Spatiales de la BIOsphère, Université de Toulouse, CNES/CNRS/IRD/UPS, 18 avenue, Edouard Belin, bpi 2801, 31401 Toulouse CEDEX 9, France; [email protected] CARTEL, Département de géomatique appliquée, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC J1K 2R1, Canada; [email protected] Université de Carthage/INAT, 43, Avenue Charles Nicolle, 1082 Tunis-Mahrajène, Tunisia; [email protected] Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +33-5-61558525 Academic Editors: Yuei-An Liou, Chyi-Tyi Lee, Yuriy Kuleshov, ean-Pierre Barriot, Chung-Ru Ho, Xiaofeng Li and Prasad S. Thenkabail Received: 20 September 2016; Accepted: 28 November 2016; Published: 2 December 2016 Abstract: The analysis of vegetation dynamics and agricultural production is essential in semi-arid regions, in particular as a consequence of the frequent occurrence of periods of drought. In this paper, a multi-temporal series of the Normalized Difference of Vegetation Index (NDVI), derived from SPOT-VEGETATION (between September 1998 and August 2013) and TERRA-MODIS satellite data (between September 2000 and August 2013), was used to analyze the vegetation dynamics over the central region of Tunisia in North Africa, which is characterized by a semi-arid climate. Products derived from these two satellite sensors are generally found to be coherent. Our analysis of land use and NDVI anomalies, based on the Vegetation Anomaly Index (VAI), reveals a strong level of agreement between estimations made with the two satellites, but also some discrepancies related to the spatial resolution of these two products. The vegetation’s behavior is also analyzed during years affected by drought through the use of the Windowed Fourier Transform (WFT). Discussions of the dynamics of annual agricultural areas show that there is a combined effect between climate and farmers’ behavior, leading to an increase in the prevalence of bare soils during dry years. Keywords: Vegetation Anomaly Index; North Africa; vegetation dynamics; agriculture 1. Introduction In semi-arid regions, drought is a frequent phenomenon leading to serious problems in agriculture and food safety, and increasing attention has been drawn to its high attendant economic and social costs [1]. Although it is essential to quantify the occurrence of droughts, this is generally found to be difficult since they are spatially variable and context-dependent [2]. In general, in situ meteorological data from weather stations is analyzed through the use of drought indices [3,4] such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI; [5]) or the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; [6,7]). The PDSI is based on long-term historical precipitation and mean temperature data. The SPI is based on precipitation data only. In areas with a high density of weather stations, drought conditions can be interpolated with only small associated errors. In the case of regions with sparsely distributed weather stations, statistical techniques such as the Inverse Distance Weighted method or a stochastic model of Ordinary Kriging can be considered. These methods are not completely sufficient to ensure that drought quantification is achieved with high accuracy, in areas where limited ground measurements are made. The problem is more complicated in areas of the globe in which weather stations are Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992; doi:10.3390/rs8120992 www.mdpi.com/journal/remotesensing Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 2 of 16 completely absent. For this reason, in the last two decades scientists have proposed various new approaches for the estimation of drought conditions, based on the use of remotely sensed satellite data [8–11]. A number of different indices based on data recorded by remote optical sensors have been developed to quantify drought [12–14]. In fact, remote sensing allows soil and vegetation dynamics and its variations to be monitored over time [15–17]. Most studies are based on the use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which has demonstrated good accuracies for the quantification of green vegetation cover or vegetation abundance [18]. This index is expressed by: NDVI = (RNIR − RRED)/(RNIR + RRED), where RNIR is the near-infrared (NIR) reflectance and RRED is the red reflectance. A high NDVI indicates a strong level of photosynthetic activity [19,20]. The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) has been tested at different sites, revealing its high potential for the detection and monitoring of drought. Kogan et al. [12], Seiler et al. [21], and Quiring et al. [22] observed a high correlation between the VCI and agricultural production in different regions of the globe (Africa, America, Europe). Gitelsen et al. [23] showed that when tested at six different sites in Kazakhstan, the VCI could explain 76% of the observed variations in crop density. Amri et al. [14] proposed the use of the notion of the Vegetation Anomaly Index (VAI), derived from SPOT-VGT data, and observed a high correlation between this product and precipitation levels measured at the site studied in the present paper. Mu et al. [24] proposed the Drought Severity Index (DSI), combining the Vegetation Anomaly Index and an evapotranspiration anomaly index, which has shown considerable potential for the quantification of drought in different climatic regions. In North Africa, droughts are the cause of major losses in non-irrigated agriculture, and crop yields are severely reduced during dry years [14]. Droughts are also an important factor in environmental degradation, because they limit the development of vegetation cover and make the soil more sensitive to erosion in the case of intense precipitation. The aim of this paper is to propose an analysis of variations in vegetation cover, in particular for the case of annual agricultural land use in a semi-arid region of North Africa, in the context of drought events. It is based on two satellite products having different spatial resolutions, namely SPOT-VGT and TERRA-MODIS. Section 2 presents the studied site and the database used in this study. Section 3 compares the behavior of inter-annual NDVI time series, and provides a discussion of land use mapping and NDVI anomalies from TERRA-MODIS and SPOT-VGT observations. Section 4 describes the specificities of agricultural areas confronted by drought events. Our conclusions are presented in Section 5. 2. Database 2.1. Studied Site The studied site is the Kairouan plain, which is situated in central Tunisia (35◦ –35◦ 450 N; 9◦ 300 –10◦ 150 E) (Figure 1) and is characterized by a semi-arid climate [25]. The average annual rainfall is approximately 300 mm per year, with the rainy seasons lasting from October to May, followed by dry summers. The rainfall patterns in this semi-arid area are highly variable over time and space. As shown in the annual precipitation plot of Figure 2, this site is frequently affected by drought events: during the 15-year period of the present study, from 1998 to 2013, we identify five dry years with an accumulated precipitation of less than 200 mm. The mean daily temperature in Kairouan City ranges between a minimum of 10.7 ◦ C in January and a maximum of 28.6 ◦ C in August, with a mean value equal to 19.2 ◦ C. The mean annual potential evapotranspiration (Penman) is close to 1600 mm. The landscape has no relief, and land use is dominated by agriculture, with two main types of vegetation cover: annual agriculture and olive trees. Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 3 of 16 3 of 16 3 of 16 Annual AnnualPrecipitation Precipitation(mm) (mm) Figure 1. 1. Satellite Satellite view view of of the the Kairouan Kairouan plain. plain. Figure Figure 1. Satellite view of the Kairouan plain. 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 Year Year Figure 2. Annual precipitations over the studied period (1998–2013). Figure 2. Annual precipitations over the studied period (1998–2013). Figure 2. Annual precipitations over the studied period (1998–2013). 2.2. Satellite Data 2.2. Satellite Data 2.2. Satellite Data (a) SPOT-VGT (a) SPOT-VGT (a) SPOT-VGT The 10-day synthesis (S10) products derived from SPOT-VGT data are available at full resolution The 10-day synthesis (S10) products derived from SPOT-VGT data are available at full resolution The and 10-day synthesis (S10) products derived SPOT-VGT data are at full (1 km), include the 10-day NDVI data used from in the present study. For available these products, (1 km), and include the 10-day NDVI data used in the present study. For these products, resolution (1 km), and include the 10-day NDVI data used in the present study. For these products, top-of-atmosphere corrections were applied using the SMAC algorithm, which corrects for molecular top-of-atmosphere corrections were applied using the SMAC algorithm, which corrects for molecular top-of-atmosphere corrections were applied the SMAC algorithm,effects. which The corrects for molecular and aerosol scattering, water vapor, ozone,using and other gas absorption parameters taken and aerosol scattering, water vapor, ozone, and other gas absorption effects. The parameters taken and water vapor, ozone, and gas absorption The parameters takenwater into intoaerosol accountscattering, in the atmospheric corrections areother the aerosol optical effects. depth (AOD), atmospheric into account in the atmospheric corrections are the aerosol optical depth (AOD), atmospheric water account in the atmospheric corrections are the aerosol optical depth (AOD), atmospheric water vapor, vapor, and ozone, and a Digital Elevation Model used for atmospheric pressure estimation. The water vapor, and ozone, and a Digital Elevation Model used for atmospheric pressure estimation. The water and ozone, and a Digital Elevation used for atmospheric pressure estimation. The waterwith vapora vapor parameter is derived fromModel data provided by Météo-France once every six hours, vapor parameter is derived from data provided by Météo-France once every six hours, with a 1.5° × 1.5° grid cell resolution. Although the AOD is currently retrieved from B0 data (blue spectral 1.5° × 1.5° grid cell resolution. Although the AOD is currently retrieved from B0 data (blue spectral Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 4 of 16 parameter is derived from data provided by Météo-France once every six hours, with a 1.5◦ × 1.5◦ grid cell resolution. Although the AOD is currently retrieved from B0 data (blue spectral band of SPOT-VGT, 0.43–0.47 µm), combined with the NDVI, prior to 2001 it was a static dataset, which varied as a function of latitude only. Different systematic errors (misregistration of the different channels, calibration of the linear array detectors for each spectral band) are corrected in the final P product, which is re-sampled to a plate carree geographic projection. The S10 products are available at http://free.vgt.vito.be. In the present study, we make use of this product for the period between September 1998 and August 2013. (b) TERRA-MODIS In this study we used 250-m spatial resolution, 16-day composites of MODIS NDVI data (MOD13Q1, collection 5). This product is retrieved from atmosphere-corrected, daily bidirectional surface reflectance observations, using a compositing technique based on product quality assurance metrics to remove low quality pixels. The 250-m spatial resolution is the finest available from the MODIS NDVI dataset, and the 16-day composite was selected in order to ensure a high probability of having the best quality pixel (reduced cloud effects) representing the NDVI within each 16-day period. Here, we make use of this product in order to analyze the influence of drought, during the period between September 2000 and August 2013. 2.3. Precipitation Precipitation estimations were based on measurements recorded by a network of 30 rain gauges, distributed over the entire site. As our studied site is mainly flat, without mountains, the terrain was assumed to have no influence on the rainfall’s spatial distribution. The Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation algorithm, which computes values at non-sampled points by estimating the weighted average of data observed at nearby points, was used to estimate daily precipitation maps [26]. The precipitation time series and NDVI data set are thus available with similar spatial resolutions. As a consequence of the small number of rain gauges and the assumption of rainfall with no particular spatial distribution, the difference between precipitation products at 1 km and 250 m resolutions is very small. 2.4. NDVI Temporal Series Figure 3 shows the NDVI time series over the last 13 years (2000–2013), for three types of vegetation: pastures, annual agricultural areas, and olive groves, based on data provided by the SPOT-VGT and TERRA-MODIS sensors. For each sensor, the NDVI and precipitation data correspond to an average value, taken over a selected area characterized by homogenous vegetation cover. It is retrieved using high resolution land use maps and direct observations in the site. Among the three types of vegetation cover, the NDVI with the lowest dynamic range is observed for olive groves. These are characterized by a dispersed vegetation cover, with a spacing of approximately 15 m between two successive trees accompanied by a high percentage of bare soil. The highest temporal dynamics are observed in the areas characterized by annual agricultural vegetation, where the NDVI can be seen to vary strongly between wet and dry years. For example, a maximum NDVI equal to 0.6 is observed during 2010–2011, the wettest year (430 mm precipitation), whereas 0.1 is observed during the period 2000–2001 (176 mm precipitation), the driest hydrological year. In all land use cases, a high level of agreement is found between the NDVI dynamics observed with SPOT-VGT and TERRA-MODIS. However, during two different one-year periods (2004–2005 and 2006–2007) some discrepancies were observed in the case of the annual agriculture vegetation cover, for which the maximum value of NDVI derived from TERRA-MODIS data is clearly lower. This behavior could be attributed to differences in the data processing algorithms, in particular for cloudy conditions. It can also be noted that the precipitation recorded between November and January, which is essential for growth of annual agriculture, was relatively low (approximately 105 mm) during these two periods, when compared to that recorded during wet years (170 mm for 2003–2004 and 190 mm for 2005–2006). It is thus Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 5 of 16 likely that the NDVI values retrieved from the TERRA-MODIS data are more suitable for the accurate determination of the vegetation dynamic. (a) (b) Figure 3. Temporal variations of the spatially averaged NDVI for three types of vegetation cover (pasture, annual agriculture and olive groves), from September 1998 to September 2013; (a) SPOT-VGT; (b) MODIS. 3. Analysis of Vegetation Dynamics with SPOT-VGT and TERRA-MODIS NDVI Products 3.1. Temporal Dynamics of Land Use Mapping In order to accurately analyze the vegetation dynamics corresponding to the different types of vegetation cover present at the studied site, it is essential to consider annual land use maps. As a consequence of the lack of high-resolution satellite images, suitable for the retrieval of land-use maps for all of the studied years between 1998 and 2013, we adopt an approach based on the use of low spatial resolution SPOT-VGT and TERRA-MODIS NDVI images. For this, we consider three characteristic classes, labelled: “olive trees and bare soil”, “annual agriculture” and “pastures”. As shown by the NDVI time series, olive groves are affected by quite small variations in NDVI, between dry and wet years, with the NDVI remaining very close to that of bare soil (between 0.15 and 0.2). The similarity of these values 1 is due to the large average spacing between olive trees (between 15 and 20 m), as well as to the continuous use of soil tilling (up to five times per year), a practice that is commonly used to increase infiltration and eliminate the growth of grass and weeds Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 6 of 16 following rainfall events. For this reason, we group olive groves and bare soils together in the same class of land use. A linear mixing theory developed by Settle et al. [27] is considered, in which it is assumed that the reflectance (respectively NDVI) of a mixed pixel is given by the sum of the mean reflectance (respectively NDVI) values of the different land cover classes within the pixel, weighted by their respective fractional covers. The first step in this approach involves the identification of typical NDVI profiles, representative of each of the above land cover classes in the disaggregation methodology. For this step, we consider information related to the class composition of each pixel, retrieved from a high-resolution land-cover map. Disaggregation techniques are designed to estimate the annual proportion (between 0 and 1) of specific classes occurring within each pixel, by considering the NDVI time series acquired for each year. The result is a set of three fractional images, each corresponding to one specific class of land-cover. While this information describes the composition of each pixel, it does not provide any indication as to how the classes are spatially distributed within each pixel. Figure 4 illustrates the results of the three land use mapping using SPOT-VGT and MODIS data for the wettest (2010–2011) and driest (2000–2001) years. A qualitative comparison of the SPOT-VGT and MODIS land use maps shows that they are in good agreement. Approximately the same areas are retrieved, corresponding to a strong presence of “annual agriculture” or “pasture” or “olive groves and bare soil”. During dry years, a clear decrease is observed in the presence of annual agriculture. In order to verify the accuracy of the land use maps produced from low-resolution satellite images, we compared high-resolution SPOT-HRV maps of annual agricultural areas with the proposed low-resolution SPOT-VGT and TERRA-MODIS NDVI maps over a period of eight years, for which high-resolution satellite data exists. Table 1 shows the SPOT-HRV and LANDSAT high-resolution images used to produce the high-resolution land-use maps, for the eight agricultural seasons. Table 1. High resolution optical data (SPOT, LANDSAT) acquisitions. Agricultural Year Date of Acquisition Satellites 1999/2000 5 January 2000 13 March 2000 9 July 200 SPOT 2 2005/2006 16 November 2005 26 March 2006 22 July 2006 SPOT 2 2006/2007 21 December 2006 25 March 2007 27 July 2007 SPOT 2/LANDSAT 2008/2009 21 December 2008 14 April 2009 20 May 2009 17 July 2009 SPOT 5 2009/2010 8 October 2009 30 December 2009 28 March 2010 24 June 2010 SPOT 5 2010/2011 24 December 2010 29 January 2011 17 March 2011 03 July 2011 SPOT 5 2011/2012 6 November 2011 13 January 2012 31 March 2012 6 July 2012 SPOT 5 2012/2013 26 December 2012 21 January 2013 19 March 2013 11 July 2013 SPOT 5 Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 7 of 16 Figure 5 shows the high-resolution land use map of the studied site for the 2012–2013 agricultural season. An approach making use of decision tree learning was applied, based on the use Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 7 of 16 of four multi-temporal data acquisitions for each year [25]. This allowed 11 land use classes to be identified: rivers, dams, sebkhas, reliefs, urban areas, dry olive, summer and winter vegetables, cereals, bare soils, and tree crops. Our land annual derived from and MODIS Figure 5 shows the high-resolution useagriculture map of theclass studied site for theSPOT-VGT 2012–2013 agricultural maps includes several classesuse derived from tree the SPOT-HRV use maps, as use cereals and season. An approach making of decision learning wasland applied, based such on the of four summer and winter vegetables, which were merged in order to compare highand low-resolution multi-temporal data acquisitions for each year [25]. This allowed 11 land use classes to be identified: estimations. The comparison was made the SPOT-HRV scene data only, and bare other rivers, dams, sebkhas, reliefs, urban areas,according dry olive, to summer and winter vegetables, cereals, regions the crops. Kairouan plain wereagriculture masked in class the SPOT-VGT and SPOT-VGT MODIS landand useMODIS maps tomaps allow soils, andoftree Our annual derived from comparisons to classes be made correctly. Asthe shown in Figure 6, use in the casesuch of the estimated area of includes several derived from SPOT-HRV land maps, astotal cereals and summer annual agriculture land use,were a better agreement between and TERRA-MODIS and winter vegetables, which merged in orderistofound compare high-SPOT-HRV and low-resolution estimations. data than between SPOT-HRV and data,scene with data correlation coefficients equal of to the 0.89 The comparison wasthe made according to SPOT-VGT the SPOT-HRV only, and other regions and 0.59,plain respectively. Thisinresult could be and explained differences in allow spatial and temporal Kairouan were masked the SPOT-VGT MODISby land use maps to comparisons to As a result of theinrelatively fields (generally between 1 and beresolutions. made correctly. As shown Figure 6, small in thesize caseofofthe theagricultural total estimated area of annual agriculture 5 ha), theaTERRA-MODIS outputs are between found to SPOT-HRV be in better agreement with the high-resolution reality land use, better agreement is found and TERRA-MODIS data than between of SPOT-HRV land use at the site. data, with correlation coefficients equal to 0.89 and 0.59, respectively. the andstudy SPOT-VGT This result could be explained by differences in spatial and temporal resolutions. As a result of the 3.2. Discussion NDVI Anomalies with TERRA-MODIS SPOT-VGT Data relatively small ofsize of the agricultural fields (generallyand between 1 and 5 ha), the TERRA-MODIS outputs are found to be in better agreement with the high-resolution reality of at the provides study site.a In this section, we propose to use an anomaly index applied inland [14],use which quantitative illustration of vegetation stress and the influence of drought on the vegetation cover. 3.2. Discussion of NDVI Anomalies with TERRA-MODIS and SPOT-VGT Data This index is based on statistics derived from the NDVI time series, and is referred to as the In this section, we propose to use an anomaly “Vegetation Anomaly Index” (VAI), written as: index applied in [14], which provides a quantitative illustration of vegetation stress and the influence of drought on the vegetation cover. This index is NDVIi − and NDVI i mean based on statistics derived from the VAI NDVI=time series, is referred to as the “Vegetation Anomaly (1) i σi Index” (VAI), written as: NDV Ii − ( NDV Ii )mean VAI (1) i =a given month i, (NDVI ) where NDVIi is the NDVI estimate for is the mean value of the NDVI σi i mean ( ) σi during month i, derived from the described 15Ii years NDVI series, where NDV Ii is the NDVI estimate forpreviously a given month i, ( NDV meantime value of theand NDVI )mean isofthe corresponds the standard deviation of described the NDVI15 values for series, monthand i over the same 15 during month i,toderived from the previously yearsestimated of NDVI time σi corresponds period. deviation of the NDVI values estimated for month i over the same 15 year period. toyear the standard (a) (b) Figure 4. Cont. Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 8 of 16 8 of 16 (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) Figure4.4.(a,b) (a,b)“Annual “Annualagriculture” agriculture”maps mapsderived derivedfrom fromSPOT-VGT SPOT-VGTobservations observationsfor forthe thewettest wettest Figure (2010–2011) and driest year (2000–2001); (c,d) “olive trees and bare soil” maps derived from (2010–2011) and driest year (2000–2001); (c,d) “olive trees and bare soil” maps derived from SPOT-VGT SPOT-VGT observations for the wettest (2010–2011) and driest year (2000–2001); (e,f) “Annual observations for the wettest (2010–2011) and driest year (2000–2001); (e,f) “Annual agriculture” maps agriculture” derived from TERRA-MODIS for the wettest (2010–2011) and driest derived from maps TERRA-MODIS observations for theobservations wettest (2010–2011) and driest year (2000–2001); year (2000–2001); (g,h) “olive trees and bare soil” maps derived from TERRA-MODIS observations (g,h) “olive trees and bare soil” maps derived from TERRA-MODIS observations for the wettest for the wettest and driest year (2000–2001). (2010–2011) and (2010–2011) driest year (2000–2001). Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 of 16 9 of916 9 of 16 Figure 5. High resolution land useuse map derived from SPOT/HRV images in 2012–2013. Figure High resolution land map derived from SPOT/HRV images 2012–2013. Figure 5.5.High resolution land use map derived from SPOT/HRV images inin 2012–2013. Annual Agriculture Area (ha) Annual Agriculture Area (ha) 100000 100000 90000 90000 80000 80000 70000 70000 60000 60000 50000 50000 40000 40000 30000 30000 20000 20000 10000 10000 0 0 SPOT HR SPOT HR SPOT-VGT SPOT-VGT MODIS MODIS Figure 6. Variations in the surface area of annual agriculture over a period of eight years. Figure 6. Variations in the surface area of annual agriculture over a period of eight years. Figure 6. Variations in the surface area of annual agriculture over a period of eight years. Figure 7 illustrates thethe mean level of of thisthis index forfor thethe studied site, using data from both Figure illustrates mean level index studied site, using data from both Figure 7 7illustrates the mean level of this index for the studied site, using data from both SPOT-VGT andand TERRA-MODIS forfor thethe period of of interest, between 2000 andand 2013. TheThe VAI is SPOT-VGT TERRA-MODIS period interest, between 2000 2013. VAI SPOT-VGT and TERRA-MODIS for the period of interest, between 2000 and 2013. The VAI isis computed forforthe hydrological years beginning ininSeptember, September, over the studied region. We retrieve first computed the hydrological years beginning over the studied region. We first computed for the hydrological years beginning in September, over the studied region. We first retrieve approximately the same behavior for these products and positive negativelevels levelsfor approximately the same VAI VAI behavior for these twotwo products and positive orornegative retrieve approximately the same VAI behavior for these two products and positive or negative levels forapproximately approximatelythe the same periods. However, various discrepancies are encountered due to the same periods. However, various discrepancies are encountered due to the for approximately the same periods. However, various discrepancies are encountered duedifferent to the different spatial resolutions of these two sensors. The VAI index can be seen to have a positive trend spatial resolutions of theseoftwo sensors. The VAI can be to have a positive trend for different spatial resolutions these two sensors. The index VAI index canseen be seen to have a positive trend forboth bothsatellite satelliteproducts, products,which which can be firstly explained byslightly a slightly positive trend in autumn can be firstly explained by a positive trend in autumn rainfall for both satellite products, which can be firstly explained by a slightly positive trend in autumn rainfall (between November and January) observed 13 years of the studied In (between November and January) observed duringduring the 13the years the studied period.period. In addition, rainfall (between November and January) observed during the 13ofyears of the studied period. In addition, a small increase in the surface of irrigated areas was observed during the last 10 years of a small increase in the surface irrigated areas wasareas observed during theduring last 10the years the studied addition, a small increase in theofsurface of irrigated was observed lastof10 years of theperiod, studied period, maycontributed also have contributed to trend this positive [28].confirms This outcome which maywhich also have this positive Thistrend outcome the trend the studied period, which may also havetocontributed to this[28]. positive trend [28]. This outcome confirms thein trend reported inof a global study of drought by on [24,29], based on the interpretation theDSI reported a global study by [24,29], based the interpretation the NDVI of and confirms the trend reported in adrought global study of drought by [24,29], based on the of interpretation of the NDVI and DSI (Drought Severity Index) indices, showing that the studied (and North Africa is (Drought Severity Index) indices, showing that the studied (andregion North in general) NDVI and DSI (Drought Severity Index) indices, showing thatregion the studied regionAfrica (and North Africa in general) is wetter. becoming wetter. We find a more significant trend for the SPOT-VGT time series, with becoming We find a more significant trend for the SPOT-VGT time series, with a slope equal in general) is becoming wetter. We find a more significant trend for the SPOT-VGT time series, with a slope equal to 0.13, whereas the TERRA-MODIS data leads to a slope of 0.06. This difference is due 0.13,equal whereas the whereas TERRA-MODIS data leads todata a slope of to 0.06. This of difference is difference due mainly the a to slope to 0.13, the TERRA-MODIS leads a slope 0.06. This is to due mainly to the discrepancy between the annual maximum values of NDVI determined for these two mainly to the discrepancy between the annual maximum values of NDVI determined for these two products, during the one-year periods between 2004–2005 and 2006–2007 (see Figure 3). products, during the one-year periods between 2004–2005 and 2006–2007 (see Figure 3). Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 10 of 16 discrepancy between the annual maximum values of NDVI determined for these two products, during the one-year periods between 2004–2005 and 2006–2007 (see Figure 3). Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 10 of 16 September 2 VAI SPOT-VGT 1.5 October 1 0.5 November 0 December -0.5 -1 y = 0.13 x - 0.87 January -1.5 -2 February March Hydrological year (a) September 2 VAI TERRA-MODIS 1.5 October 1 November 0.5 0 December -0.5 -1 y = 0.0671x - 0.4698 January -1.5 February -2 March Hydrological year (b) Figure 7. Temporal dynamics of the VAI over the Kairouan plain: (a) using SPOT-VGT data; (b) using Figure 7. Temporal dynamics of the VAI over the Kairouan plain: (a) using SPOT-VGT data; TERRA-MODIS data (2000–2013). (b) using TERRA-MODIS data (2000–2013). Figure 8 compares the mean annual VAI indices for the two products, for the 13 years considered in this The twothe products are found to be in very good and an linear Figurestudy. 8 compares mean annual VAI indices for the agreement, two products, forapproximately the 13 years considered relationship be products established between twoinindexes: in this study. Thecan two are found the to be very good agreement, and an approximately linear relationship can be established between VAI the two =indexes: α VAI SPOT −VGT MODIS +β (2) Table 2 lists the linear regression parameters for each VAISPOT αVAI MODIS + βmonth of the year, showing that −VGT =retrieved for most months α is close to 1, and α is close to zero. (2) Table 2 lists the linear regression parameters retrieved for each month of the year, showing that for most months α is close to 1, and α is close to zero. Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 11 of 16 Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 11 of 16 2 mean annual VAI from SPOT-VGT 1.5 -2 1 0.5 0 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 mean annual VAI from TERRA-MODIS Figure 8. Relationship between the VAI indices estimated annually from TERRA-MODIS and Figure 8. Relationship between the VAI indices estimated annually from TERRA-MODIS and SPOT-VGT data. SPOT-VGT data. Table 2. Parameters derived linear regression between VAISPOT-VGT and VAIMODIS and over the Table 2. Parameters derivedfrom from linear regression between VAI VAIstudied SPOT-VGT MODIS over the site, site, for the period betweenbetween 2000 and2000 2013. and 2013. studied for the period Month September Month October September November December October January November February December March January April February May June March July April August α 0.78 α 1.05 0.880.78 0.961.05 1.020.88 0.99 0.96 1.08 1.02 1.07 0.870.99 1.041.08 1.071.07 0.96 β 0.0075 β 0.01 0.03 0.0075 0.06 0.01 0.02 0.03 −0.02 0.06 −0.05 0.02 0.0028 0.1 −0.02 0.066 −0.05 0.07 0.0028 0.06 May 0.87 0.1 June 1.04 0.066 4. Dynamics of the Area used forJuly Annual Agriculture 1.07 0.07 0.96 0.06 In the previous sections we August propose a method for the quantification of drought, through the use of satellite time series. The area used for annual agriculture is certainly the most sensitive to drought events, as of shown Figure 3. Itfor is essential gain a clear understanding of the influence of drought 4. Dynamics the in Area Used AnnualtoAgriculture in this area, in order to improve its agricultural productivity. In this section, following the analysis of the temporal variations observed in the NDVI data, we the behavior ofof thedrought, NDVI signals in the use In the previous sections we propose a method fordiscuss the quantification through the spectral domainThe through the use the windowed Fourier transform, of satellite time series. area used forofannual agriculture is certainly the thus mostallowing sensitivethe to drought specificities of in extremely to be analyzed. events, as shown Figure dry 3. Ityears is essential to gain a clear understanding of the influence of drought in this area, in order to Vegetation improve Using its agricultural In this section, following the analysis of the 4.1. Analysis of the a Windowedproductivity. Fourier Transform temporal variations observed in the NDVI data, we discuss the behavior of the NDVI signals in the The Fourier Transform (FT) can be used to analyze the frequency content of a signal in the time spectral domain through the use of the windowed Fourier transform, thus allowing the specificities of domain, by decomposing the original signal into a set of superimposed sine and cosine basis extremely dry years to be analyzed. 4.1. Analysis of the Vegetation Using a Windowed Fourier Transform The Fourier Transform (FT) can be used to analyze the frequency content of a signal in the time domain, by decomposing the original signal into a set of superimposed sine and cosine basis functions. By definition, these basis functions are not local—i.e., they have an infinite span and are globally Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 12 of 16 uniform over time. Thus, the FT does not represent any temporal variability that may be present in the signal, and cannot provide any information about the time of occurrence of any specific frequential event. For such applications, the Windowed Fourier Transform (WFT) allows frequency components present in a time series to be localized in the time domain. This technique applies a fixed-width moving window over the data, and can be used to identify specific frequency components corresponding to Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 12 of 16 dry years. The short-time Fourier transform the NDVI signal, X(t) is defined as:infinite span and are functions. By definition, these basis of functions are not local—i.e., they have an globally uniform over time. Thus, theZFT does not represent any temporal variability that may be ∞ present in the signal, and cannot provide any information about the time of occurrence of any specific X (t, f ) = x (t1 )h∗ (t1 − t) e−i2π f t1 dt1 (3) frequential event. For such applications,−the ∞ Windowed Fourier Transform (WFT) allows frequency components present in a time series to be localized in the time domain. This technique applies a where the functionmoving h(t) is window a Hamming and multiplied the signal X(t) fixed-width over window the data, centred and can at be time used t to identify specificbyfrequency components corresponding to dry years. prior to the Fourier transformation. The window function allows the signal to be viewed close to the Fourier transformprovides of the NDVI signal,estimation X(t) is defined time t only,The andshort-time the Fourier transform a local of as: the spectrum centred around −i 2πft1 to the ordinary Fourier transform and ∞ days. * Similarly time t. The width of this window wasX (set t , f )to = 90 dt1 (3) −∞ x(t1 )h (t1 − t )e spectrum, the spectrogram can be written as: where the function h(t) is a Hamming window centred at time t and multiplied by the signal X(t) prior to the Fourier transformation. The window function allows the signal to be viewed close to the Sx (t, f ) = | X (t, f )|2 time t only, and the Fourier transform provides a local estimation of the spectrum centred around time t. The width of this window was set to 90 days. Similarly to the ordinary Fourier transform and Sx spectrum, can be expressed in decibels as: the spectrogram can be written as: P S=x (t10log Sx(t(, t,f )f )) , f ) = (X 2 (4) (4) (5) be expressed in decibels as: Figure S9x can shows the resulting WFT spectrograms (P values), for the annual agricultural cover P = 10 log(vegetation S x (t , f )) (5)observed produced from TERRA-MODIS time series. For this cover, a clear difference can be between dryFigure and wet seasons, with the spectrogram revealing a greater intensity at high frequencies 9 shows the resulting WFT spectrograms (P values), for the annual agricultural cover during wet years.from Figure 10a shows the spectrograms corresponding to the relatively dry year from 2001 produced TERRA-MODIS time series. For this vegetation cover, a clear difference can be and2010 wet seasons, spectrogram revealingHigher a greaterlevels intensity at high power to 2002,observed and the between wet yeardry from to 2011,with as a the function of frequency. of spectral during wetduring years. Figure 10a shows the(more spectrograms to the relatively dry occur atfrequencies high frequencies, the wettest year than 4 corresponding dB). This observation is confirmed in year from 2001 to 2002, and the wet year from 2010 to 2011, as a function of frequency. Higher levels Figure 10b, which plots the values of the spectrogram at 30 Hz (a high frequency). A similar behavior of spectral power occur at high frequencies, during the wettest year (more than 4 dB). This is observed for the NDVI temporal signal, with higher power occurring during wet seasons, and lower observation is confirmed in Figure 10b, which plots the values of the spectrogram at 30 Hz (a high power occurring dry years, during which the the vegetation cover are low. This leads frequency).inAthe similar behavior is observed for dynamics the NDVI of temporal signal, with higher power to a relatively low intensity in the temporal of theinNDVI signals. the occurring during wet seasons, and lower variations power occurring the dry years, Conversely, during which during the dynamics of the vegetationresulting cover arefrom low. This leads to ain relatively low intensity in and the temporal wet seasons, NDVI variations fluctuations the vegetation cover rainfall events, variations the NDVI signals. Conversely, duringinthe wet seasons, NDVI variations resulting from etc. occur with a of much higher intensity. Although this section we present the results obtained with fluctuations in the vegetation cover and rainfall events, etc. occur with a much higher intensity. TERRA-MODIS products only, it is interesting to note that the results obtained with the SPOT-VGT Although in this section we present the results obtained with TERRA-MODIS products only, it is products are verytosimilar. interesting note that the results obtained with the SPOT-VGT products are very similar. Figure 9. WFT spectrogram for annual agriculture cover derived from TERRA-MODIS data. Figure 9. WFT spectrogram for annual agriculture cover derived from TERRA-MODIS data. Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 13 of 16 Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 13 of 16 (a) (b) Figure 10. (a) Spectrogram dynamics as a function of frequency, for a dry and a wet year; Figure 10. (a) Spectrogram dynamics as a function of frequency, for a dry and a wet year; (b) Spectrogram dynamics at a high frequency (Fr = 30 Hz). (b) Spectrogram dynamics at a high frequency (Fr = 30 Hz). 4.2. Monitoring of Bare Soils in Agricultural Areas 4.2. Monitoring of Bare Soils in Agricultural Areas In the cultivated zones analyzed here, the bare soils represented a greater surface area during drythe years, as a result of theanalyzed farmers’ tendency avoid sowing in the absence of rainfall events, In cultivated zones here, theto bare soils represented a greater surface areaduring during dry between and January. aimsowing of the next section is to illustrate thisevents, behavior, years,the asperiod a result of theNovember farmers’ tendency to The avoid in the absence of rainfall during by analyzing the NDVI time series. the period between November and January. The aim of the next section is to illustrate this behavior, In order to analyze the dynamics of bare soils, together with their relationship with drought by analyzing the NDVI time series. events occurring during the studied period, we studied yearly remotely-sensed land use maps, In order to analyze the dynamics of bare soils, together with their relationship with drought events recorded between 1998 and 2013, and broke them down into three classes (olive groves and bare soil occurring during the studied (class period, we pastures studied(class yearly land use maps, (class 1), annual agriculture 2) and 3)).remotely-sensed In order to evaluate the dynamics of recorded bare between 1998 and 2013, and broke them down into three classes (olive groves and bare soil (class 1), soils selected from class 1, during the course of wet and dry years, it is proposed to accurately annual agriculture (class 2) and pastures (class 3)). In order to evaluate the dynamics of bare determine the surface area covered by the olive groves only, corresponding to that identified during soils selected class during the course of wet and dry years, it is proposed accurately determine the from wettest year1,(2010–2011). Under these climatic conditions, a very small to percentage of bare soils the remain Even in natural can be found As this the olive grove year surface area uncultivated. covered by the olive grovesareas, only, pastures corresponding to thateverywhere. identified during wettest class hasUnder remained approximately constant in recent years, any increase class 1 coverage a (2010–2011). these climatic conditions, a very small percentage of in bare soils remain during uncultivated. dry year can be attributed to an increase in the surface area of bare soil. Even in natural areas, pastures can be found everywhere. As this olive grove class has remained Using this hypothesis, Figure 11 illustrates the temporal variation of surface areas covered by approximately constant in recent years, any increase in class 1 coverage during a dry year can be bare soils, determined from data recorded by the SPOT-VGT and TERRA-MODIS sensors. These two attributed to an increase in the surface area of bare soil. estimations are in good agreement, with the highest surface areas occurring during the driest years. Using this hypothesis, Figure 11 illustrates the temporal variation of surface areas covered by bare soils, determined from data recorded by the SPOT-VGT and TERRA-MODIS sensors. These two estimations are in good agreement, with the highest surface areas occurring during the driest years. As shown in Figure 11, only the TERRA-MODIS sensor was able to detect a strong Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 14 of 16 As shown in Figure Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 11, only the TERRA-MODIS sensor was able to detect a strong increase14inof the 16 surface area of bare soil during the dry years of 2000, 2001 and 2007. This can be explained by comparing the spatial resolutions of the two sensors: since that of SPOT-VGT is equal to 1 km, the increase in the areabare of bare duringathe dry years of 2000, 2001than and 2007. probability of surface retrieving soilsoil covering complete pixel is lower in theThis casecan of be the explained by comparing the spatial resolutions of the two sensors: since that of SPOT-VGT is equal to TERRA-MODIS observations, which have a resolution of 250 m. These results clearly illustrate effects 1that km, are the related probability of retrieving bare soil a completeby pixel lower than in the case of the to drought, but which maycovering also be influenced theisfarmers’ agricultural practices. TERRA-MODIS observations, which have a resolution of 250 m. These results clearly illustrate effects In general, farmers do not sow cereals or vegetables whenever there are no significant rainfall events that are beginning related to drought, but which may also(end be influenced the farmers’ at the of the agricultural season of autumn,bybeginning of agricultural winter). Thispractices. result is Inconfirmed general, farmers do not sow between cereals orprecipitation vegetables whenever there are no covered significant events at by the correlation and the surface area byrainfall bare soil, during the beginning of the agricultural season (end of autumn, beginning of winter). This result is confirmed the period between November and January. The correlations between bare soil surface area and by the correlation between precipitation the0.8, surface covered by bare during the period precipitation levels are equal to 0.36and and for area the SPOT-VGT and soil, TERRA-MODIS data, between November and January. correlations between bare soil surface area and respectively. For this reason, the The influence of drought on vegetation cover could notprecipitation be accurately levels are equal to 0.36 and 0.8, forareas, the SPOT-VGT TERRA-MODIS respectively. Fortaken this identified in these agricultural since the and farmers’ agriculturaldata, practices were not reason, the influence of drought on vegetation cover could not be accurately identified in these into account. agricultural areas, since the farmers’ agricultural practices were not taken into account. Precipitation (november-january) 0.40 0.35 SPOT-VGT MODIS 0 50 0.25 0.20 0.15 100 150 200 Precepitation Bare soil area 0.30 0.10 0.05 0.00 250 300 Figure Figure11. 11.Variations Variationsininbare baresoil soilsurface surfacearea areafrom from1998 1998toto2013, 2013,determined determinedfrom fromSPOT-VGT SPOT-VGTand and TERRA-MODIS data. TERRA-MODIS data. 5.5.Conclusions Conclusions This Thispaper paperproposes proposestotointerpret interpretSPOT-VGT SPOT-VGTand andTERRA-MODIS TERRA-MODISNDVI NDVItime timeseries seriesfor forthe the purposes of analyzing the behavior of vegetation as a consequence of drought. In the first purposes of analyzing the behavior of vegetation as a consequence of drought. In the first step,step, land land mapping is implemented using from both of these satellites. Three agricultural classes use use mapping is implemented using datadata from both of these satellites. Three agricultural classes are are considered: olive groves and bare soil, pastures, and annual agricultural areas. The results obtained considered: olive groves and bare soil, pastures, and annual agricultural areas. The results obtained from TERRA-MODIS observations areare found to be qualitatively coherent in the casecase of fromSPOT-VGT SPOT-VGTand and TERRA-MODIS observations found to be qualitatively coherent in the the class ofclass agricultural land use.land Theseuse. results are validated through the use of high-resolution of latter the latter of agricultural These results are validated through the use of SPOT/HRV land use maps recorded over a period of eight years. For the total surface area covered high-resolution SPOT/HRV land use maps recorded over a period of eight years. For the total surface by annual agricultural fields, a better agreement is found between SPOT-HRV and TERRA-MODIS area covered by annual agricultural fields, a better agreement is found between SPOT-HRV and data than betweendata SPOT-HRV and SPOT-VGT data,and withSPOT-VGT correlation data, coefficients equal to 0.89 and 0.59, TERRA-MODIS than between SPOT-HRV with correlation coefficients respectively. VAI (Vegetation Anomaly Index) estimations are proposed for a period of more equal to 0.89 and 0.59, respectively. VAI (Vegetation Anomaly Index) estimations are proposedthan for a 13period years,of through the use SPOT-VGT NDVI The VAI NDVI estimations are more than 13 of years, throughand theTERRA-MODIS use of SPOT-VGT andproducts. TERRA-MODIS products. found to be coherent, despite differences in spatial resolution between these two sensors,between and a linear The VAI estimations are found to be coherent, despite differences in spatial resolution these relationship is established on a monthly basis, between the two sets of VAI estimations. positive two sensors, and a linear relationship is established on a monthly basis, between the twoA sets of VAI trend is observed for thetrend VAI isindex determined withindex thesedetermined two products. the case of annual estimations. A positive observed for the VAI with For these two products. For agricultural areas, a Windowed Fourier Transform spectrogram is computed from the NDVI time the case of annual agricultural areas, a Windowed Fourier Transform spectrogram is computed from series, to simplify the analysis of thethe temporal of this product, to determine whento the NDVI time series, to simplify analysisvariations of the temporal variationsand of this product, and certain cyclicwhen events occur. cyclic Drought yearsoccur. are qualitatively characterized by spectrograms having determine certain events Drought years are qualitatively characterized by low levels of high frequency spectral power. The dynamics of the VAI and NDVI characterizing of spectrograms having low levels of high frequency spectral power. The dynamics of the VAI and agricultural areas are strongly related toareas variations in bare soil surface was NDVI characterizing of agricultural are strongly related to coverage. variationsThis in relationship bare soil surface derived from the inter-annual dynamics of land use mapping. Using the two satellites, SPOT-VGT and Remote Sens. 2016, 8, 992 15 of 16 TERRA-MODIS, we are able to show that an increase in bare soil coverage occurs during dry years. This outcome is related mainly to the decision, made by most farmers, not to sow new crops during agricultural years that are preceded by an autumn with low levels of precipitation. This aspect is clearly revealed by the TERRA-MODIS data, due to its higher spatial resolution and greater sensitivity for the detection of fields with bare soils. Acknowledgments: This study was funded by the AMETHYST project (ANR-12-TMED-0006-01, ANR TRNSMED program). 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