1 The Royal Society of Edinburgh
The Arab Spring: Tropes and Discourses
Professor Yasir Suleiman: His Majesty Sultan Qaboos Bin Said
Professor of Modern Arabic Studies and Director of Alwaleed
Centre of Islamic Studies at the University of Cambridge
Thursday 1 December 2011
Report by Jeremy Watson
It may seem strange to invoke the name of the illustrious economist John Maynard Keynes
at the beginning of a lecture on the Arab Spring but, as Professor Suleiman made clear, he
was going to be less than complimentary about economic explanations of the ongoing
phenomenon. Keynes, at least, was smart enough to recognise the limits of predictive
modelling, and another economist, John Kay, has recently reinforced this point, noting that
most predictive models deal with uncertainty by extrapolating from the past. As a result, they
reveal nothing so much as the limits of the imagination of the person who constructs them.
Perhaps this, Suleiman suggested, is why scholars, policy makers and intelligence analysts
have failed to predict the Arab Spring.
But did the Spring emerge out of the void? No, it did not, Suleiman argued, contending that
pre-Spring there were strikes in Tunisia and Egypt and small-scale protests against the
Mubarak regime by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, demanding an end to dynastic rule
and to state corruption in the areas of politics, the economy and the justice system. In
Jordan, teachers had mounted campaigns to form a professional association.
Yet when it happened, no-one could have predicted the speed and intensity with which the
first wave of Arab Spring uprisings unfolded and spread. And, Suleiman suggested, it was
complacency that allowed western intelligence agencies to fail to see it coming. They
believed Arab peoples lacked “agency” or the stamina to bring about fundamental change,
that they were just “letting off steam” and would soon be put in their place by brutal regimes.
The Arab youth, in particular, were considered a “lost generation”, more interested in internet
communications and gadgets than in real politics. Above all, there was a feeling that a love
of autocracy, rather than democracy, was an Arab character trait.
In spite of this, the Arab Spring has taken root and continues to act as a catalyst for real
change. But, Suleiman asked, what are some of the most important features of the emerging
political terrain in the Arab Middle East? Among them is what he calls “a fearless attack on
fear.”
During recent months, he has attended many talks on the Arab Spring and he has been
consistently struck by how the words “freedom, “dignity” and “justice” are never invoked. Yet
trade and economy are not the first things mentioned by Egyptians, Tunisians and other
Arabs when talking about the Arab Spring. Freedom, justice and dignity are the front-line
concepts, which show that the Spring is an attack on fear, a call for freedom, political
participation and free speech.
This even shows up in the names of political parties in Egypt, especially those of an Islamist
orientation. The Muslim Brotherhood have established a new party called the Freedom and
2 Justice Party, because they know the resonance the words have in Egyptian society. One of
the centrist parties is Al Ghad (Tomorrow), which in Arabic means the hope of a bright new
day. This refers to a rosy economic future, but this is unlikely to gain precedence over
freedom, dignity and justice in terms of popular priority.
Although the names of these parties – whether of Islamist, pan-nationalist or liberal leanings
– suggest that values are important marketing tools, they are not just slogans, Suleiman
contended. They are effective political marketing tools because they resonate with the
Egyptian public and the ways in which it seeks to imagine and define the wider public good.
“Public good” has never been absent from Arab societies, even under authoritarian rule. A
visitor from Scotland would never have had to wait long before hearing the claim “fi aman
hon” (there is safety here). This roughly translates as “although we do not have what you
have in the West, our streets are safe to walk in at night.”
Interestingly, Suleiman said, this was the first claim thrown back in the faces of the new
regime in Egypt by a lone man carrying a double-sided placard in Tal’At Harb Square, close
to Tahrir Square in central Cairo in November. Addressed to the Chief of the Supreme
Council of the Armed Forces, it read “Where is the security and safety of Egyptian streets,
Minister of Interior?” It went on to mention other value-laden words such as “freedom” and
“justice” and referred to Egyptians as people of the Nile “whose blood is not cheap.”
It is this type of sentiment that was at the heart of publicity materials for the Egyptian
parliamentary elections that began in November. Income levels, standard of living,
unemployment and other economic factors were not in the front line of the lexicon in local
narrations of the Arab Spring. The words used refer to human universal values, so
materialist explanations that invoke economic factors do not do justice to what is actually
happening.
The second side of the placard talked about freedom and its high price. Interestingly,
Suleiman argued, this is not seen as a gift to be bestowed by external liberators but as
something to be achieved internally through a process of self mastery. Freedom is a moral
achievement, won by overcoming the forces that keep people bound. Only then can it be
valued.
So why, Suleiman asked, do many academic explanations of the Arab Spring avoid valueladen concepts in favour of economic analysis? Is it that the standards of evaluation and
validation applied in academic discourse militate against the use of “soft categories” of
analysis – concepts of dignity, freedom and justice – in explaining social political phenomena
of this type? But ignoring these native narratives is similar to the complacency shown by the
CIA, MI6 and Mossad in ignoring the views of ordinary people prior to the Arab Spring. The
approach to academic analysis must now be re-examined to take account of this.
Suleiman insisted that the Arab Spring was not just an assertion of universal moral values
but also a courageous act in an authoritarian climate and an affirmation of individual and
collective “agency” or moral authority. Agency here was nothing if not an attack on the
political modality of fear. This attack has struck fear into the heart of a political elite which
had thought that agency rested with them and them alone. Traditionally in Arab states, fear
operated from the top down. Now a new situation is emerging in which fear is operating from
the bottom up. If sustained, it could bring a transformation of individuals from “subjects” to
“citizens” and the birth of a genuine emancipation movement.
That Arab blood has been shed suggests that the fight against tyranny is not driven by
economics but by the basic desire for dignity, freedom and justice, Suleiman argued. The
uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt have gone beyond removing the head of state, drilling down
to deeper levels of political order, suggesting an awareness of the power of “agency” and the
readiness to exercise it. The Arabs have a saying: “Don’t put your head above the parapet
because it will be cut off.” That Arabs are now repeatedly ignoring this shows that the
yearning to be a citizen is not a passing phase. What has now also become clear, Suleiman
3 said, is that seemingly impregnable Arab regimes and rulers are in fact brittle and vulnerable
to peaceful mass action, which has proved to be more effective than violence in challenging
the brutality of the established orders.
But what do Arab citizens want in place of the regimes they are toppling? Do they still want
“charismatic” leaders? Opinion polls in Egypt suggest that for the post of President the
people still want a strong and experienced leader but one who has respect for the people,
can take on vested interests, weed out corruption, stand up to the military, dismantle the
coercive element of the security apparatus of the state, and also fight Egypt’s corner on the
regional and international stage. Polls suggest that the urbane Amr Moussa, former general
secretary of the Arab League and Mubarak’s Foreign Minister, is currently ahead of his main
rival, who has Islamist credentials.
This chimes with the broad message of the Arab Spring in that it shows that neither
charismatic leadership nor organised parties or trades unions are essential in this new vision
of political leadership. This is a step change away from the post-colonial worlds in which
Nasser-like “strongmen” were considered essential in nationalist struggles.
And as Arab states move away from charismatic leaderships, Suleiman insisted, issuesbased politics will become more prominent. Previously, there has been a tendency to think of
Middle East politics solely in terms of state-based ideologies, such as pan-Arab nationalism
or pan-Islamism. Now issues such as political freedoms, constitutional reforms, social
justice, equality before the law and public accountability have in the ascendancy. It is this
character that has given the Arab Spring its appeal and resilience, Suleiman said.
But this is not to argue that Arabism – as a political idea – is dead. Rather, Suleiman said,
the affirmations of dignity and justice have given it new life, creating a new form of crossstate Arab solidarity. The Arab League would not have acted in the manner it did towards
Libya and Syria if it had not been for this solidarity.
So, Suleiman argued, Arabism is no longer just a shared history, language and culture, but
also a shared aspiration for future democracy and justice. More evidence is available in the
cadence of slogans reverberating currently through Arab cities, demanding the fall of
regimes. In addition, from the Atlantic coast to the Arabian Gulf, Arabic-speaking audiences
have been glued to their TV sets, watching and debating the same stories, attesting to the
existence of a shared Arab public sphere and diaspora. This shows that it is important not to
conceptualise the Arab Spring in Islamic terms but, first and foremost, as an Arab-inflected
Spring.
It is not an Islamic Spring but a genuinely indigenous movement, Suleiman claimed. In spite
of all kinds of regime-generated conspiracy theories, the Spring was home-grown and
embedded in an Arab solidarity with the potential to modulate and challenge the trenchant
narratives of Islamism. The trick now will be transform this Spring from a seemingly freak but
welcome “weather condition” into an enduring aspect of the Middle East climate. In this
respect, the biggest dangers are cynicism and impatience, leading to nostalgia for previous
regimes, a view which Suleiman said, he had heard expressed as recently as November in
Cairo.
Looking forward, the role of the West is also an important factor, Suleiman suggested. It is
well known that that the Arab Middle East is strategically important to global powers because
of its economic interests. As a result, Western powers have traditionally favoured stability
over democracy. However, the successful functioning of economies is not just about
economics but also about trust. By such political trading in the past, Western powers have –
from the Arab side – run up a deficit of confidence that they now need to eliminate. To do
this, they need to “unlearn” all the thinking that they have previously applied to foreign policy
in relation the Arab world. From now on, actions have to speak louder than words, a reversal
of the previous position.
The NATO intervention in Libya have been, in Suleiman’s opinion, beneficial in addressing
this confidence benefit. Normally, such actions would have been greeted by mass
4 demonstrations and popular condemnation in the Arab world. That this did not happen
suggests that, on this occasion, the West has done the right thing. On the other hand,
Russia and China have lost credibility with their pro-Gaddhafi stance and their support for
Bashar Al Assad in Syria. A further expression of the West’s readiness to tackle the deficit
further would be in dealing with the Israeli–Palestinian conflict.
Another way would be to support the democratic order in the Middle East when and if it
emerges and a key issue will be how to engage with democratically-elected Islamists. As
Suleiman suggested, the Islamists are treated as the West’s biggest “bugbears” when it
comes to framing new policies towards the emerging political order. But, wherever they
surface, Suleiman said, democratically-elected Islamists must be considered an expression
of free political will. Any other stance would be counter-productive, as coercively excluding
Islamists would only give them more legitimacy and the opportunity to recruit disaffected
segments of the population. That is a luxury they should not be given, Suleiman warned. In
essence, however, the West does not know as yet how much support Islamist parties of
different types could command or what types of Islamism might prevail.
What the world has to deal with at present is uncertainty, excitement, volatility and hope,
Suleiman concluded. Scholars need to take the Spring seriously as a locus of human
aspirations and Western governments have to work hard to address the continuing
confidence deficit. In addition, the West needs to think differently about how it thinks about
the Middle East and to recognise that when it acts in accordance with its declared values of
freedom and democracy, as it did in Libya, it gains respect.
Having said that, at this historic moment, the Arab Middle East also has a responsibility to
protect and nurture its hard-won freedoms. Not because it matters to the West but because,
as the man with the placard said, the price of freedom is known only to those who know the
value of their own blood.
Q&A
Q) Islamist as a term is a very broad and blunt catch-all. But what other language could be
used?
A) The language that will emerge will defy any attempt to lump everyone together. ‘Islamist’
is just a label and what we will see in places like Egypt is the development of programmes
that will show the differences between different Islamist parties. In the same way that we
don’t have phrases like Christianists or Judaists, we probably won’t have Islamists either,
eventually. I am not sure what terminology will eventually emerge, but I hope that what
emerges is not blind to the amazing variety within Islamism.
Q) While the West attributes everything to economics, the underlying issue appears to be
dignity. It was the same in some historical examples, such as in France where the phrase
was ‘Liberty, Equality and Fraternity’. But is there agreement among Arabs about what
dignity actually means? And isn’t economics actually more important?
A) Economics is important, but it is not the frontline concept. Does dignity have one
meaning? I doubt it. For me personally, dignity is equal access to opportunity. This comes
home to me at borders, as it can be taken away easily by a soldier or policeman. In Syria, I
was in the “Arabs” queue and was taken into a room where an official examined a big pile of
files and eventually said “it’s not him. But let’s interrogate him anyway.” I was interrogated for
eight hours! My integrity was trampled on.
Q) What will happen if we attack Iran? If that happens there will be no more Arab Spring.
A) Iran is a very different place. There was the “Green Revolution” in Iran in 2009, but there
were no supportive moves by Arab states because of deep antipathies. The Shia/Sunni
5 divide emerged in a major way in the Middle East. So if the West attacks Iran, I am not sure
what will happen.
Q) Were the Israelis as guilty of misreading the situation as everyone else?
A) The Arab Spring has brought great unpredictability and most Israelis do not like this.
There is a lot of support in Israel for Assad in Syria because the regime at least brought 40
years of stability. Israel does not want democracy in the Arab-speaking world because Israel
has made a lot of political capital out of being the only democracy in the region. Emerging
democracies threaten that moral claim. Israelis are their own worst enemies in that they miss
every opportunity.
Q) It was understood that the ruling authorities in Arab states would quell any revolutions.
What brought people to the stage where they thought they could rebel?
A) In Russia, Putin is coming back as President, another example of an almost dynastic setup. But the fact that we live in a globalised world of ideas now has brought a general
realisation that there are many regimes that have become dynastic set-ups. In Egypt there
was going to be another Mubarak, in Syria there is already another Assad. People are
saying enough is enough.
VOTE OF THANKS
The vote of thanks was given by Professor Carole Hillenbrand, who said Professor Suleiman
had given an excellent talk on important world events and answered difficult questions with
real inside knowledge. All present would go away with clear memories of the central themes.
The message was of the bottom-up rather than the top-down nature of the uprisings and that
the West had to rethink its attitude to the Arab World.
Opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent the views of the RSE, nor of its Fellows
The Royal Society of Edinburgh, Scotland’s National Academy, is Scottish Charity No. SC000470