The Driver Shortage:
Issues and Trends
An independent analysis of professional drivers
in the UK logistics sector
Prepared for FTA by RepGraph Ltd
October 2016
Contents
DriverShortageKeyPerformanceIndicators.........................................................................2
ReportSummary...................................................................................................................3
EmploymentinUKLogistics..................................................................................................4
LGVDrivers:EmploymentandClaimantCount......................................................................5
EmploymentofLGVdriverscomparedtogeneralemployment..................................................5
LGVdriveremploymentbycountryandregion...........................................................................6
LGVdriverclaimantcount............................................................................................................7
DriverShortageNumber.......................................................................................................8
LabourForceSurveystatistics–drivershortagenumber............................................................8
LGVDriverEmploymentStatus.............................................................................................8
Driverjobturnover.......................................................................................................................9
Driverturnovercalculation........................................................................................................10
Churnwithintheindustry..........................................................................................................10
DriverPayandConditions....................................................................................................11
Paymeasures.............................................................................................................................11
Measuresofworkinghours........................................................................................................12
LGVDriverAge:AProfessionDominatedbyOlderMaleDrivers..........................................13
AverageageforLGVdrivers.......................................................................................................13
LGVdriveragecomparedtogeneralpopulation.......................................................................13
Gender........................................................................................................................................14
NewEntrantsandTestPassRate.........................................................................................14
Initialqualification......................................................................................................................14
LGVdriverapprenticeships........................................................................................................15
LGVpassrate..............................................................................................................................15
Age.........................................................................................................................................16
Gender...................................................................................................................................16
ProblemsRecruitingProfessionalDrivers.............................................................................17
DriverShortage:BarriersandSolutions................................................................................17
The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 1 DriverShortageKeyPerformanceIndicators
Indicators
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
35,189
69,551
52,720
43,087
34,567
48.1
47.9
48.0
48.0
47.9
TotalnumberofLGVdriversin
employment
290,000
259,000
285,000
299,217
315,495
NumberofEULGVdriversinemployment
18,247
16,562
19.062
25,109
31,542
6.3%
6.4%
6.7%
8.4%
10.0%
1,817
1,011
1,034
2,735
3,780
Percentageofnon-EULGVdriversin
employment
0.63%
0.39%
0.36%
0.91%
1.20%
LGVdriverchurn
7.7%
7.1%
9.8%
9.7%
5.8%
Workingpopulationchurn
4.2%
4.1%
4.4%
4.9%
4.5%
LGVdriverpaygrossweekly
£471
£484
£494
£505
£519
Numberofdriversclaimingjobseekers
allowance*
6,400
4,885
2,220
1,055
620
Numberofapprentices
7,620
5,510
4,000
4,930
5,470**
NumberofLGVpracticalteststaken
46,549
46,246
48,283
55,161
70,233
Numberofpracticaltestspassed
24,401
24,498
26,224
30,574
39,000
43%
54%
67%
82%
76%
Drivershortagenumber
AverageageofLGVdriver
PercentageofEULGVdriversin
employment
Numberofnon-EULGVdriversin
employment
Levelofdifficultyrecruitingdrivers
(QTAS)***
*FiguresforMayeachyear(i.e.midpointofQ2)
**Provisional
***FromQ2ofeachyearfortheFTAQTASsurvey
2 The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends
2
ReportSummary
1. Thedrivershortageiscurrentlyestimatedat35,000LGVdrivers
2. TheaverageageofanLGVdriveris47.9years(downfrom48.1lastyear).Overthelast
15yearstherehasbeenasteadyincreaseinaveragedriverage,risingfrom45.3years
in2001to48yearsatthepresenttime
3. Around64percentofLGVdriversare45yearsorolder.Only2percentofemployed
driversareunder25whereas10percentofthetotalemployedpopulation(ofworking
age)isunder25
4. ThenumberofLGVdriversinemploymenthasincreasedby5percentcomparedto
lastyear
5. ThenumberofLGVdriversclaimingJobseeker’sAllowanceinQ22016was620.By
August2016,thenumberhadfallenfurtherto530whichdown38.4percentfroma
yearagoand96.5percentlowerthanthepeakof15,255inMarch2009duringthe
economicdownturn
6. 5,470peoplestartedapprenticeshipprogrammeslearningtodrivegoodsvehiclesin
2015/16whichisanincreaseof11percentcomparedto2014/15butis28percent
lowerthan2011/12.
7. 36,615drivers(bothLGVandPCV)acquiredaDCPCthroughtheinitialqualification
fromApril2015toMarch2016–anincreaseof22percentonthepreviousyear
8. ThenumberofpracticalLGVpracticalteststakenintheyeartoendofMarch2016
increasedto70,233whichis27percenthigherthanlastyearandisnowatprerecessionlevels.Althoughthepassratehasgraduallyimprovedsincefinancialyear
2007/2008,onlyjustoverhalfoftesttakerspass
9. IntheyeartotheendofMarch2016,overhalf(58percent)ofalltestsweretakenby
thoseundertheageof35.Theaverageageofapersontakingapracticaltestwas34
10. FTAmembersreportedaroundthesamelevelofdifficultyinrecruitingdriversinthe
secondquarterof2016comparedtothepreviousquarter.InQ22009however,just
over20percentofrespondentshadproblemsrecruitingLGVdrivers,thishasnow
increasedtoaround76percentinQ22016
Note:Inrecentyearsthetruckandcoachlicensingcategorynameshavechanged.HGV(Heavy
GoodsVehicle)isnowLGV(LargeGoodsVehicle).ForconsistencyinthedocumentthetermLGV
isused.
3
The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 3 EmploymentinUKLogistics
Table1providesabreakdownofemploymentinUKlogistics.1Thetotalnumberofpeople
employedinlogisticsoccupationsand/orworkingforcompaniesinthelogisticssectorisnow
around2.5million.
Table1:Broaddefinitionofemploymentinlogistics:numbersandpercentagesemployed
Employment*
Logistics
Allother
Total
sector
sectors
Purchasingmanagersand
8,501
49,587
58,088
directors
(5,181)
(49,870)
(55,051)
Managersanddirectorsin
37,795
42,520
80,315
transportanddistribution
(34,326)
(44,688)
(79,014)
Managersanddirectorsin
34,954
74,371
109,325
storageandwarehousing
(26,554)
(57,641)
(84,195)
5,160
1,935
7,095
Importersandexporters
(5,181)
(5,829)
(11,010)
Transportanddistribution
25,985
42,798
68,783
clerksandassistants
(24,611)
(38,859)
(63,470)
209,861
105,634
315,495
LargeGoodsVehicledrivers
(188,468)
(110,749)
(299,217)
112,637
138,631
251,268
Vandrivers
(88,729)
(107,511)
(196,240)
31,109
65,921
97,030
Fork-Lifttruckdrivers
(30,440)
(55,698)
(86,138)
Postalworkers,mailsorters,
133,372
28,234
161,606
messengersandcouriers
(127,588)
(29,145)
(156,733)
Elementarystorage
176,346
223,074
399,420
occupations
(161,914)
(229,918)
(391,832)
Otheroccupationswithin
996,003
996,003
N/A
theLogisticsSector
(927,443)
(927,443)
1,771,723
772,705
2,544,428
Total
(1,620,435) (729,908) (2,350,343)
*NumbersinroundbracketsareforQ22015,providedforcomparison
**Percentagesinsquarebracketsareproportionoftotal
Logisticsoccupations
%
2%
(2%)
3%
(3%)
4%
(4%)
0%
(0%)
3%
(3%)
13%
(13%)
10%
(8%)
4%
(4%)
6%
(7%)
16%
(17%)
39%
(39%)
100%
UK
Nationality**
EU
Other
52,556
[90%]
71,118
[89%]
102,884
[94%]
5,054
[71%]
66,403
[97%]
280,173
[89%]
223,232
[89%]
74,286
[77%]
146,264
[91%]
296,371
[74%]
861,940
[87%]
2,180,281
[86%]
2,090
[4%]
7,425
[9%]
4,836
[4%]
705
[10%]
2,380
[3%]
31,542
[10%]
22,378
[9%]
20,466
[21%]
12,181
[8%]
92,867
[23%]
94,070
[9%]
290,940
[11%]
IntheyearfromQ22015toQ22016thelogisticssectoraddedover150,000jobstothe
economyandwhen‘allothersectors’areincluded,employmentinlogisticsincreasedbyover
190,000.Thisreflectsthesteadyincreaseinlabourdemandoverthelast2-3years.
TheLGVdriverpopulationhasexpandedby15,000(5percent)thisyear,helpingtoreducethe
driverdeficit.Non-UKnationalsrepresent11percentoftheLGVdriverpopulation:1percent
arenon-EUnationalsand10percentareEUnationals.Ofthe10percentofdriversfromthe
EU,themajoritycomefromEasternEuropeandinparticularPoland,RomaniaandHungary.
Theproportionofthepopulationwhoidentifybeingavandriverastheirmainoccupationhas
risenappreciablyby28percentovertheyear.InQ22015,vandriversaccountedfor8per
centofjobsinlogisticsbutthishasgoneupto10percentthisyear;anincreaseofover
55,000.Around11percentofvandriversarenon-UKnationalsandEUnationalsrepresent9
percentofthelogisticsvandriverpopulation(around22,000drivers).
1
Source:RepgraphanalysisofONSLabourForceSurveyforQ2,2016
4 The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends
4
3,442
[6%]
1,772
[2%]
1,605
[1%]
1,336
[19%]
0
[0%]
3,780
[1%]
5,658
[2%]
2,278
[2%]
3,161
[2%]
10,182
[3%]
39,993
[4%]
73,207
[3%]
Intotal,around365,000non-UKnationals(14percentoflogisticsworkers)areemployedin
logisticsandnearly300,000(11percent)areEUnationals.Byproportion,mostEUnationals
areemployedinwarehousingandstoragerelatedoccupations.EUnationalsrepresent21per
centoftheforkliftdriverpopulation(around20,500drivers)and23percentofelementary
storageoccupations(around93,000jobs).
LGVDrivers:EmploymentandClaimantCount
EmploymentofLGVdriverscomparedtogeneralemployment2
Numberofjobs(normalisedtoQ2-2001)
InQ22016accordingtotheONSLabourForceSurvey,therewere315,495peopleemployed
asLGVdrivers,comparedwith321,455professionaldrivers10yearsearlier(areductionof2
percent).Atthesametimenationalemploymentstatisticsindicatedthattherewereatotalof
over31.66millionjobsinJune2016comparedto29.10million10yearsearlier,whichisan
increaseof9percent.
Whiletotalemploymentnumbershaveincreasedoverthelast15yearstherehasbeena
significantfallintheproportionofLGVdrivers(droppingby15percentfrom2001to2013,
butrecoveringsomewhatsincethen).ThenumberofLGVdriversinemploymentincreased
overtheperiodfromQ22015toQ22016(upby5percent),butthiswasinlinewitha
reductioningeneralunemploymentduetoimprovedeconomicconditionsandisstilljust
below2007pre-recessionlevels(Figure1).
Figure1:LGVdriversinemploymentcomparedtogeneralemployment
1.20
1.15
1.10
1.05
1.00
0.95
Totalnumberof
Jobs
0.90
NumberofLGV
Drivers
0.85
0.80
2
Source:ONSLabourForceSurveyEmploymentstatusbyoccupation,tablesEMP04andEMP16Q22001-Q22015
5
The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 5 LGVdriveremploymentbycountryandregion
NearlyonehalfofdriversareemployedinCentralandNorthernEnglandwiththelargest
proportionworkingintheNorthWestofEngland(Figure2).Theregionthatemploysthe
highestproportionofLGVdriversisNorthWestEngland.Perhapsunsurprisingly,Northern
Irelandhasthesmallestproportionofdrivers(3percent),followedbyWales.
Figure2:PercentageLGVdriveremploymentbycountry/region
6 The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends
6
LGVdriverclaimantcount
ThenumberofLGVdriversclaimingJobseeker’sAllowanceinQ22016was620(takingthe
monthofMayasthemid-pointforQ2).ByAugust2016,thenumberhadfallenfurtherto530
whichis down38.4percentfromayearago.AccordingtotheUKLabourMarketstatistics
publishedbytheONStheUKclaimantcount3wasslightlyhigher(0.3percent)inAugust2016
comparedtoJuly4.Atthesametime,thetrendforLGVdriversclaimingJobseeker’sAllowance
continueditsdownwardtrajectory,fallingby7.0percentinthesameperiod.FortheUKasa
whole,theclaimantcountwas771,000,downbyonly2.7percentfromayearago.
ThisstatisticshowsthatlabourmarkettrendsforLGVdriversintheUKisoutofstepwith
generallabourmarkettrends.Onthesurfacethismayseemlikegoodnews,butinreality
thereisanever-shrinkingpoolofactivejobseekersfromwhichtosourcedrivers.Thecurrent
LGVdrivers’claimantcountis96.5percentlowerthanthepeakof15,255inMarch2009
duringtheeconomicdownturn,almostdoublethatoftheUKasawholeinthesameperiod.
400,000
16,000
350,000
14,000
300,000
12,000
250,000
10,000
200,000
8,000
150,000
6,000
100,000
4,000
50,000
2,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ClaimantCount
LGVdriversclaimantcount
NumberofLGVdrivers
Figure3:EmploymentandunemploymentofLGVdrivers,UnitedKingdom,Q220165
0
Numberinemployment
3
PeopleoutofworkclaimingJobseeker’sAllowanceorUniversalCredit
Sources:Nomis-Claimantcountbyoccupation(Augustfigures)14September2016
5
Sources:Nomis-Claimantcountbyoccupation(Mayfigures)15June2016andONSLabourMarketStatistics-
TableEMP04:AllInEmploymentByStatus,Occupation&Sex(Q2figures)17August2016
4
7
The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 7 DriverShortageNumber
Thedrivershortagenumberisestimatedbycomparingjobgrowthforthegeneralpopulation
withLGVdriversbasedonONSLabourForceSurveystatistics.
LabourForceSurveystatistics–drivershortagenumber
AnanalysisoftheofficialONSLabourForceSurveydataestimatesthatthecurrentdriver
shortagefigureis34,567.
LabourForceSurveyanalysis
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
In2001therewereestimatedtobe305,629LGVdrivers.
AsofJune2016therewere315,495LGVdrivers.
Atthesametime,thetotalUKeconomyhadadded14.5percentmorejobscomparedto2001.
AssumingthattheindustriesemployingLGVdrivershavetrackedtheeconomyasawholein
termsofdemandforjobs,thenthereshouldbea14.5percentincreaseinthedemandforLGV
driverssince2001.
Thisequatesto350,062LGVdriversrequired.Thereforetheshortfallinthenumberofdrivers
isestimatedtobe350,062–315,495=34,567asofmid2016.
Thisislikelytobeaconservativeestimatesincetheriseine-commerceandhomedeliveryin
recentyearsislikelytohaveexacerbateddemandforLGVdriverscomparedtomanyother
vocations.
LGVDriverEmploymentStatus
Figure4showstheemploymentstatusoftheUK’sLGVdrivers.6
Figure4:LGVdriveremploymentstatus
9%
Self-employeddrivers
Driverswhoareemployees
91%
InQ22016,9percentofrespondentsindicatedthattheywereself-employedwhilst91per
centstatedthattheywereemployees.Thiscomparestoonly6percentwhowereselfemployedin2009duringtherecession.7Thisisprobablycausedbytheimprovementinthe
economycreatingmoreopportunitiesfordriverstosetupontheirown.Theincreased
proportionofself-employeddriversmaybecontributingtothedifficultiescurrently
experiencedbyfirmsinrecruitingpermanentLGVdrivers.PerhapsnotsurprisinglymostLGV
driversworkfulltime(Figure5).8
6
Source:LabourForceSurvey,Q22016
Source:LabourForceSurvey,Q22009
8
Source:LabourForceSurvey,Q22016
7
8 The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends
8
Figure5:LGVdriversinfullandparttimework
5%
Fullnme
Partnme
95%
InQ12016,95percentofrespondentsstatedthattheyworkedfulltimeand5percentpart
time.TherewasnochangecomparedtoQ22009attheheightoftherecession,whenthe
sameproportionreportedthattheywereworkingfulltime.Theconsistentlysmallproportion
ofparttimeworkingisprobablyduetojobworkpatternsmakingitverydifficulttoemploy
LGVdriversonaparttimebasis.
NinetysevenpercentofLGVdriverswereinapermanentjobinQ22016,9highlightingthe
largeamountofworkavailableandthelargedemandforLGVdriversatthemoment.Agency
workerscontinuetorepresentasmallproportionofLGVdrivers.InQ22016only3percentof
respondentsstatedthattheywereagencyworkers,10reflectinglowdemandcurrentlyfor
agencystaff,asemployersprefertotakeonpermanentLGVdrivers.
Driverjobturnover
MostLGVdrivershaveremainedwiththesameemployerforarelativelylongperiodoftime.
Figure6showslengthoftimeincurrentjobasofQ22016.
Figure6:LGVdrivers:Timeincurrentjob
Percentageofresponses
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Alargemajorityhavebeeninthesamejobformorethantwoyearsandmorethanhalfhave
beeninthesamejobformorethanfiveyears,whichisinlinewiththetrendacrossthe
generalworkingpopulation.11
9
Source:LabourForceSurvey,Q22016
Source:LabourForceSurvey,Q22016
11
Source:LabourForceSurvey,Q22016
10
9
The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 9 Driverturnovercalculation
Eachyear,theQ2LabourForceSurveyincludessupplementaryquestionsnotcontainedinthe
otherquarters,suchas‘occupationayearpreviously’.Thesedataareusedtoestimatedriver
turnover:
DriverTurnoverCalculations
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
ThenumberofLGVdriversinQ22015was299,217
NumberofLGVdriversinQ22016was315,495
Thisrepresentsa5percentnetincreaseinthenumberofLGVdriversfromQ22015toQ2
2016
ThemeannumberofLGVdriversovertheperiodfromQ22015toQ22016was307,356
InQ220169,155or3percentLGVdrivershadlefttheindustryforanotherjobwithinthe
year(9,155/307,356)
Theresultsshowthatdespitethe3percentattritionovertheperiod,therewasanet5per
centextraLGVdriverjobscomparedtoayearearlier.Thisisindicativeofcontinuedstrength
inthedemandforLGVdriversthathasbeenbuildingsincetheendofthelastrecession.The
challengefortheindustryremainshowtoretainalargernumberofdrivers.
Churnwithintheindustry
IntheQ22016LabourForceSurvey41,550LGVdriversindicatedthattheyhadbeenintheir
currentjobforlessthanoneyear.Atthesametime,around4.5millionpeopleinthenational
workingpopulationwerealsointheirpresentpostforlessthanayear.
ThefollowingchartillustratesthejobchangedetailsforLGVdrivers.
Figure7:LGVdriverchurn
13,380
Movedfromonedrivingjobtoanother
18,310
Wereinanon-driverjobayearago
Unknownwhatjobwasayearago
9,859
EvenaccountingforthelargeproportionofLGVdriverswhoseoccupationayearearlierwas
unknown,18,310ofthosedriverswhohadbeeninpostforlessthanoneyearhadmoved
fromonedrivingjobtoanother.ThisequatestoaconservativeestimateofLGVdriverchurnof
5.8percent(18,310/315,495).Thesamefigureforthegeneralworkingpopulation(i.e.for
same-vocationannualchurn)is4.5percent.
ItishoweververyencouragingthatLGVdriverchurnhasdecreasedtoitslowestlevelinthe
lastfiveyears,havingpeakedin2014whentheeconomicrecoverywasdrivingdemandata
greaterratethanperhapsitisnow.
10 The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends
10
Table2:LGVDriverchurnforthelast5years
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
LGVDriverChurn%
7.7
7.1
9.8
9.7
5.8
Workingpopulationchurn%
4.2
4.1
4.4
4.9
4.5
The2016figurenonethelessdemonstratesthatalthoughchurnofLGVdrivershasdecreased
inrecentyears,professionaldriversarestillmovingjobsatagreaterratethanthenational
averagefortheworkingpopulation(29percentgreaterchurninLGVdriversthanchurnacross
allvocationsthisyear).FindingwaystoretainLGVdriversinthesamejobisthereforeabig
challengeforthelogisticsindustry.12
DriverPayandConditions
TheLabourForceSurveyasksparticipantsaboutvariousaspectsoftheirpayandemployment
conditions,includingaverageweeklyandhourlypayaswellashoursworkedandovertime.
ThissectionpresentstheresultsoftheanalysistothesequestionsforLGVdrivers.
Paymeasures
TheLabourForceSurveyincludesseveralmeasuresofpay.Thefollowingtableprovidesdetails
forthemostinformativepaymeasures:
Table3:LGVdriverpay
Grossweeklypay
Netweeklypay
Grosshourlypay
Basichourlyrate
Responses
110
109
107
50
Q22015
Mean
£505
£402
£10.31
£10.26
Median
£486
£403
£10.00
£10.00
Responses
109
111
106
48
Q22016
Mean
£519
£416
£10.82
£10.22
Median
£538
£415
£10.60
£9.50
%change*
+2.8
+3.5
+4.9
-0.3
*meanpay
GrossandnetweeklypayroseabovetherateofRPIinflationasdidgrosshourlypay,which
wasupbynearly5percentonthepreviousyear.Basichourlyrateswerebroadlyunchanged,
indicatingthatgrosshourlypayincreaseshaveprobablyarisenfromincreasedovertime
remuneration(althoughitshouldbenotedthatbasichourlyrateiscalculatedusingasmaller
samplesize).Overall,theresultsindicatethatdriverpayincreasesarestilloutpacinginflation.
Analysisofaveragegrosshourlyandweeklypayforeachagebandrevealedthatwageswere
significantlyhigherfordriversovertheageof30.Forthe20-29yearoldagebracket,the
averagegrossweeklypaywasaround£480,butthiswasaround£550forthe30-39age
bracket(15percenthigher).Beyondtheageof40,therewasnosignificantchangeingross
weeklypay.
Thelargepaysteparoundtheageof30probablyreflectstheextravalueemployersplaceon
moreexperiencedLGVdrivers.Itshouldhoweveralsoserveasanincentivetoyoungerpeople
joiningtheprofession,whocanexpecttheirearningstorisesignificantlyiftheyremainwithin
theindustryforjustafewyears.
12
Source:LabourForceSurvey,Q22016
11
The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 11 Risingpressureonstartingsalaries
ForQ22016theaverageweeklygrosspayforthosewhoheldtheirjobforlessthanayearwas
£425.17comparedto£403.33ayearearlier,anincreaseof5.4percent.Thisriseiswellabovethe
rateofinflationandnearlydoubletheaverage2.8percentincreaseinaveragegrossweeklypay,
indicatingacurrentupwardpressureonstartingsalaries,possiblycausedbydifficultiesinrecruiting
LGVdrivers.
Measuresofworkinghours
WorkingtimeiscapturedviaanumberofvariablesintheLabourForceSurvey,includingusual
andbasicweeklyhoursofworkaswellasusualweeklyhoursofovertime.
Table4:LGVdriverhours
Usualhours:
Excludingovertime
Includingovertime
Paidovertime
Unpaidovertime
Responses
257
183
181
186
Q22015
Mean
45.3
51.7
8.2
0.75
Median
45
50
7
0
Responses
240
183
184
187
Q22016
Mean
45.4
52.2
8.3
0.52
Median
45
51
8.0
0
%change
0.2%
1.0%
1.2%
-30.7%
Hoursofworkbothincludingandexcludingovertimeincreasedmarginallyhoweverhoursof
unpaidovertimedecreasedinthesameperiod.Amajorityofrespondentsreportedthat
overtimewaspaidatmorethantheirbasicpayrate(78percent)with22percentbeingpaid
overtimeatthesamerateastheirbasichours.Sixtyonepercentreportedthattheywerepaid
atafixedhourlyrateand39percentatavariablerate.
Asmallmajorityreportedthattheirhoursofworkvaryfromweektoweek(198outof352in
Q22016)whilstlessthan5percentstatedthattheywouldliketoworklongerhoursat
currentbasicpay.
12 The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends
12
LGVDriverAge:AProfessionDominatedbyOlderMaleDrivers
AverageageforLGVdrivers
Overthelast15yearstherehasbeenasteadyincreaseinaveragedriverage,risingfrom45.3
in2001to47.9atthepresenttime(Figure8).Itishoweverencouragingtonotethatthe
averagedriveragehaslevelledoff,decreasingveryslightlyfromlastyear.
Figure8:AverageageofLGVdriverpopulationoverthelast15years
49
AverageLGVdriverage
48
47
46
45
44
Source:QuarterlyLabourForceSurveys,2001-2016(Q2foreachyear)
LGVdriveragecomparedtogeneralpopulation
DataonagedemographyfromtheLabourForceSurvey(Q22016)revealedthatover64per
centofLGVdriversare45yearsorolder.13Thisisvastlydifferenttotheeconomy-wide
demographics,wherethepopulationaged45yearsorolderinemploymentwasfoundtobe
aroundhalf(Figure9).Only2percentofemployeddriversareunder25(thisisupfrom1per
centlastyear),whereasover10percentofthetotalemployedpopulationisunder25.The
largenumberofLGVdriversovertheageof65(around21,000)alsopointstocontinued
pressuresondriverrecruitmentinordertobackfillpositionsvacatedduetorecent
retirements.
Source:QuarterlyLabourForceSurvey,Q22016
13
13
The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 13 Figure9:Agedemographicsforprofessionaldriverscomparedtothegeneralpopulation
60
Percentageoftotal(%)
50
16-24
40
25-34
30
35-44
45-59
20
60-64
65+
10
0
LGVdriver
Generalpopulanon
Source:QuarterlyLabourForceSurvey,Q22016
Gender
LabourForceSurveydataindicatesthattheLGVdriverprofessioncontinuestobedominated
bymen.Theapproximateestimateisconsistentlyaround1percentforfemaledriversinthe
populationhowever,thesmallnumberoffemaledriverrespondentspreventsamoreaccurate
measure.InthesampleofLabourForceSurveyrespondentsinQ22016,only3(0.7percent)
werefemale.
NewEntrantsandTestPassRate
Initialqualification
ThefiguresfordriversacquiringDCPCthroughtheinitialqualification(whichrepresentsnew
entrantstotheindustrywhodidnotholdacategoryClicencepriorto10September2009)are
providedinTable5.Therewasa22percentincreaseinnewentrantsfortheyearending
March2016comparedtothepreviousyear.
Table5:Initialqualification
Financialyear
April08–March09
April09–March10
April10–March11
April11–March12
April12–March13
April13–March14
April14–March15
April15–March16
14
DCPCinitialqualification 3,948
7,524
12,104
14,003
16,511
21,054
30,025
36,615
14
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/driver-certificate-of-professional-competence-cpc-statistics
14 The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends
14
LGVdriverapprenticeships
LatestfigurespublishedinApril2016bytheSkillsFundingAgencyandtheDepartmentfor
Business,InnovationandSkillsprovisionallyindicatedthatforthe12monthsfromAugust
2015toAugust2016,5,470peoplestartedapprenticeshipprogrammeslearningtodrivegoods
vehicles.15whichisanincreaseof11percentcomparedto2014/15butis28percentlower
than2011/12.
Table6:LGVdriverapprenticeshipnumbers
Year
Count
2011/12
7,620
2012/13
5,510
2013/14
4,000
2014/15
4,930
2015/16
5,470*
*provisional
LGVpassrate
ThepassrateforLGVdriversimpactsonthenumberofdriversinemployment.Thenumberof
practicalteststakenintheyeartotheendofMarch2016increasedby27percentcompared
tolastyearandisnowbacktopre-recessionlevels.Overallthenumberofteststakenhas
increasedby60percentsincethelowof2010/11.Althoughthepassratehasgradually
improvedsincefinancialyear2007/2008,onlyjustoverhalfoftesttakerspass(Table7).16
Table7:Practicallargegoodsvehicle(LGV)test,17GreatBritain:2007/08to2015/16
Year
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
Tests
70,766
65,852
46,426
43,894
46,549
46,246
48,283
55,161
70,233
Passes
32,779
32,298
23,876
22,664
24,401
24,498
26,224
30,574
39,000
18
%passrate 46.3%
49.0%
51.4%
51.6%
52.4%
53.0%
54.3%
55.4%
55.5%
15
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/fe-data-library-apprenticeships
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/drt05-practical-large-goods-vehicles-LGV-test-pass-rates
17
IncludestestcategoriesC,C1,C+E,C1+E
18
Source:DfT2016Practicallargegoodsvehicles(LGV)testpassrates(DRT0501)
16
15
The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 15 Age
IntheyeartotheendofMarch2016,overhalf(58percent)ofalltestsweretakenbythose
undertheageof35.Inadditiontheaverageageofapersontakingapracticaltestwas34.
Figure10:AgebreakdownforthenumberofpracticalLGVtestsconducted19
Gender
ThenumberofwomentakingthepracticalLGVtesthasremainedbetween6and7percentof
alltesttakerssince2008.Thepassrateforwomenishoweverconsistentlyhigherthantheir
malecounterparts.
Table8:Passratesformenandwomen
Year
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
Malepassrate
46%
49%
51%
52%
52%
53%
54%
55%
55%
Femalepassrate
48%
52%
55%
53%
54%
53%
59%
59%
58%
19
Source:DfT2016Practicallargegoodsvehicles(LGV)testpassrates(DRT0503)
16 The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends
16
ProblemsRecruitingProfessionalDrivers
Percentageofrespondentsreporgng
problemsinrecruigngdrivers
AccordingtoFTA’sQuarterlyTransportActivitySurvey(QTAS)July2016,FTAmembers
reportedaroundthesamelevelofdifficultyinrecruitingdriversinthesecondquarterof2016
comparedtothepreviousquarter.InQ22009however,justover20percentofrespondents
hadproblemsrecruitingLGVdrivers;thishasincreasedtoaround75percent(Figure11).
Figure11:Problemsinrecruitingprofessionaldrivers
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
DriverShortage:BarriersandSolutions
InJune2016,FTAconducteditsannualTransportManagerSurveyandfoundthatover46per
centofrespondentsreportedthatinrecentmonthstheywereeitherunabletofillLGVdriver
vacanciesorhadexperiencedlongdelaysindoingso.Only24percentoftransportmanagers
reportedthattheyhadexperiencednoissuesatall.
AmajorityoftransportmanagersanticipatedashortageofLGVdriversinthenearfuturewith
mostblamingretirementasthegreatestcontributingfactor(Figure12).
Figure12:ReasonsforanticipatedshortageofLGVdriversinthecomingmonths
Driversrenring
Lackofapprennces/trainees
DriverCPC
Upturnintheeconomy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Percentageofresponses
17
The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 17 ‘Financialcostofacquiringalicence’wasrankedasthegreatestbarriertodriverrecruitment,
followedbypoorindustryimageandlackofapprenticeshipschemes(Figure13).
Figure13:Barrierstodriverrecruitment
Financialcostofacquiringalicence
Poorindustryimage
Lackofapprennceshipschemes
PassingtheLGVpracncaldrivingtest
Youngdriverinsurancepremiums
Lackofcareersadvice
DriverCPC
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1=smallestbarrier7=greatestbarrier
Respondentsindicatedthatincreasingtheavailabilityandfundingforapprenticeshipswasthe
mostimportantmeasuretoaddresstheproblemofrecruitmentanddeployment(Figure14).
Figure14:Measurestoaddressdriverrecruitmentanddeployment
Increasetheavailabilityandfundingfor
apprennceships
Guidanceonskills,fundingandsupport
Staffdevelopment
Improveindustryimage
Accesstostudenttypeloans
Incennvestorecruitlong-termunemployed
Driverroadsidefacilines
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1=leastimportant7=mostimportant
18 The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends
18
For‘othermeasures’thatwouldhelpaddressrecruitment,‘improvingdriverpay,hoursand
conditions’wasagainthemostpopularresponse,asitwasforotherreasonswhydriver
shortageswereanticipated(Figure15).
Figure15:Othermeasurestoaddresstheproblemofdriverrecruitmentanddeployment
Improvedriverpay,
hoursandcondinons
Reducedriver
regulatoryburden
Increaseapprennceshipsupport
andreducequalificanoncost
Improvepublicimage
ofdrivers
0%
5%
10%
19
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 19 www.repgraph.co.uk
Tel: 01892 526171*
Fax:01892 534989
www.fta.co.uk
Freight Transport Association Limited
Hermes House, St John’s Road, Tunbridge Wells, Kent TN4 9UZ • Registered in England Number 391957
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