TransAlta Corporation
Investor Presentation
December 2016
1
Forward Looking Statements
This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable securities
legislation. All forward-looking statements are based on our beliefs as well as assumptions based on information available at the time the assumptions were made and on
management’s experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, and expected future developments, as well as other factors deemed appropriate in the
circumstances. Forward-looking statements are not facts, but only predictions and generally can be identified by the use of statements that include phrases such as “may”, “will”,
“believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “project”, “forecast”, “foresee”, “potential”, “enable”, “continue”, or other comparable terminology. These statements are not
guarantees of our future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other important factors that could cause our actual performance to be materially different from that
projected. In particular, this presentation contains forward-looking statements pertaining to our business strategy and goals, including our strategy and position to grow gas-fired and
renewable generation; the anticipated benefits of shifting to a capacity market structure; the repositioning of our capital structure by pursuing project-level debt; anticipated future
financial performance, including as it pertains to comparable earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (“EBITDA”), comparable funds from operations (“FFO”);
the timing and the completion and commissioning of projects under development, including the South Hedland power project and its associated costs and benefits; the coal-to-gas
conversions of Sundance 3 to 6 and Keephills 1 and Keephills 2; development of a pump-storage project at Brazeau, including the anticipated benefits, total investment costs, the
increase to capacity and the timing of construction; attributes of coal-to-gas conversions, including the anticipated capital costs, investment life, reduction in emissions and operating
costs; expectations related to future earnings and cash flow from operating and contracting activities, including estimates of comparable EBITDA, comparable funds from operations
FFO, and comparable free cash flow (“FCF”); expectations in respect of financial ratios and targets, including dividend payout ratio; the Corporation’s plans and strategies relating to
repositioning its capital structure and strengthening its balance sheet, including the allocation of debt between the Corporation and TransAlta Renewables Inc. as well as the debt
reductions that are expected to occur; the potential drop-down candidates from TransAlta Corporation to TransAlta Renewables Inc.; and the Corporation’s ownership level of
TransAlta Renewables Inc..
Factors that may adversely impact our forward-looking statements include risks relating to: fluctuations in market prices and the availability of fuel supplies required to generate
electricity; our ability to contract our generation for prices that will provide expected returns; the regulatory and political environments in the jurisdictions in which we operate; adverse
regulatory developments, including unanticipated impacts on existing generation and coal-to-gas conversions; environmental requirements and changes in, or liabilities under, these
requirements; changes in general economic conditions including interest rates; operational risks involving our facilities, including unplanned outages at such facilities; disruptions in
the transmission and distribution of electricity; the effects of weather; disruptions in the source of fuels, water, or wind required to operate our facilities; natural or man-made
disasters; the threat of domestic terrorism and cyberattacks; equipment failure and our ability to carry out, or have completed, repairs in a cost-effective manner or timely manner;
commodity risk management; industry risk and competition; fluctuations in the value of foreign currencies and foreign political risks; the need for additional financing; structural
subordination of securities; counterparty credit risk; insurance coverage; our provision for income taxes; legal, regulatory, and contractual proceedings involving the Corporation;
outcomes of investigations and disputes; reliance on key personnel; labour relations matters; risks associated with development projects and acquisitions, including delays in the
construction of or increased costs associated with the South Hedland power project; and any market disruption, including any actions taken by the Balancing Pool as the buyer under
the power purchase arrangements. The foregoing risk factors, among others, are described in further detail in the Risk Management section of our Management Discussion and
Analysis and under the heading “Risk Factors” in our Annual Information Form. Readers are urged to consider these factors carefully in evaluating the forward-looking statements
and are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements included in this document are made only as of the date hereof
and we do not undertake to publicly update these forward-looking statements to reflect new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable laws. In light of
these risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, the forward-looking events might occur to a different extent or at a different time than we have described, or might not occur. We cannot
assure that projected results or events will be achieved.
Certain financial information contained in this presentation, including comparable FFO and comparable FCF, may not be standard measures defined under International Financial
Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. These measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute
for measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. For further information on non-IFRS financial measures we use, see the section entitled “Non-IFRS Measures” contained in our
Management Discussion and Analysis, filed with Canadian securities regulators on www.sedar.com.
Unless otherwise specified, all dollar amounts are expressed in Canadian dollars.
2
Outline
Overview
4
Industry Changes
6
Strategic Objectives
10
Growth Strategy
13
2016 Outlook
23
Financial Strategy
28
TransAlta Renewables
31
Appendix
35
3
TransAlta’s Platform
Coal: 4,931 MW
6 facilities in Alberta and the Pacific
Northwest
12 facilities in Canada and Australia;
also 270km pipeline
Gas: 1,323 MW
RNW owns an economic interest in all
Australian gas assets (425 MW) and the
506 MW gas facility in Ontario
Wind & Solar:
1,400 MW
27 facilities in Canada and the U.S
RNW owns ~90% of the wind facilities1
27 facilities in Canada and the U.S.
Hydro: 926 MW
(1)
TA owns the majority of the Alberta hydro
facilities
Including TransAlta Renewables economic interest in the 144MW Wyoming wind farm and 98MW Le Nordais wind facility
4
Our Highly Diversified Portfolio
• Highly diversified cash flows from five fuel types with facilities located
in Canada, the United States and Australia
• TransAlta is Canada’s largest generator of wind power and the largest
generator of renewable energy in Alberta
• Gas-fired and renewable assets accounted for more than 65% of total
Free EBITDA in 2015
(1)
2016(2) Free EBITDA
$608M
2015 Free EBITDA
$755M
5%
21%
Net Capacity (MW)
7%
34%
11%
32%
20%
16%
56%
17%
40%
41%
Coal
(1)
(2)
Gas
Wind and Solar
Hydro
Free EBITDA = EBITDA less Sustaining Capital, and excluding Energy Marketing and Corporate segments. 2015 Free EBITDA from Canadian Coal excludes a $59 million
adjustment to provisions relating mostly to prior years
As at Sept. 30, 2016
5
Far-reaching
Industry
Changes
6
Far-Reaching Industry Changes in Alberta
1
Moving to a Capacity Market
2
Off-coal transition payments
•
Total payment of $524 million comprised of annual payments of ~$37
million commencing in 2017 and terminating in 2030.
3
Support for renewables growth
4
Framework and support for transition to coal-to-gas
7
Capacity Market – A Stable Investment Environment
TransAlta has advocated for, and is supportive of, a
Capacity Market structure
1 Consultation and implementation over next 3 years; first auction taking place in
2021 for 2024
2 Allows both existing and new dispatachable generation to compete for capacity
3 Provides price and cash flow certainty, resulting in access to lower cost of
capital
4 Government has committed that non-dispatacheable existing renewables will
not be economically harmed
5 TransAlta is well positioned to compete in the capacity market
8
Transitioning Off Coal to Gas and Renewables
Memorandum of Understanding
Supports cooperation and collaboration with the
Alberta Government to advance initiatives
including:
1
Coal-to-gas Conversions
2
Support for Renewable Electricity
•
•
3
Fair treatment of existing renewable generation
Value of renewable energy credits on existing generation
Opportunities under a Capacity Market
9
Strategic
Objectives
10
Strategic Objectives
A Prudent and Proactive Plan
1
Deliver Operational Excellence
2
Increase Financial Flexibility
3
Strategically Grow our Portfolio of Contracted
Gas-Fired and Renewable Generation
11
Executing Our Strategic Objectives
2015
•
Operational
Excellence
•
•
Increase
Financial
Flexibility
•
•
Strategic
Growth
(1)
•
Reduced costs by ~$50 million
with cost saving initiatives at
Canadian Coal and Corporate
Best ever safety (IFR of 0.75)
Raised approximately $1 billion
of capital through the use of
TransAlta Renewables
Met 2015 guidance for
comparable EBITDA(1) and FFO;
exceeded FCF guidance
Acquired 71 MWs of wind and
solar assets in the U.S.
Received final approval to
construct and operate
Sundance 7
Excluding adjustment to provisions relating mostly to prior years.
2016
•
Continued focus on delivering
strong operational, safety and
financial performance
•
Reposition our capital structure by
pursuing project-level debt
Proactive planning for debt
maturities in 2017 and 2018
Similar guidance ranges to 2015
despite continued challenging
market conditions expected in
2016 in Alberta and PacNW
•
•
•
Longer-term, prepare to capitalize
on opportunities in gas-fired and
renewable generation
12
Growth
Strategy
13
South Hedland Power Station
150 MW Combined Cycle Gas Power Station in Western Australia
• Commissioning expected on schedule and on budget in mid-2017
• Expected to generate ~$80 million of EBITDA on an annualized basis
• Project has been funded without increasing our debt levels (total
investment by completion of ~$585 million)
Total estimated project spend is AUD$570 million. Total estimated project spend is stated in CAD$ and includes estimated capital interest costs and may change
due to fluctuation in foreign exchange rates.
14
Long-Term Investment Opportunities
Alberta
Gas-Fired and Renewables
•
Up to ~3,000MW’s of coal-to-gas conversions; extending life of
coal facilities
•
Alberta’s Renewable Electricity Program – addition of 5,000MW
of renewable energy capacity by 2030
Brazeau Pump Storage
•
600 – 900MW’s expansion; bringing full site capacity to 955MW
1,255MW’s
•
Perpetual assets
Other Markets
•
Expansion & acquisition opportunities in the United States &
Australia
•
Saskatchewan renewable auctions
15
Coal-to-Gas Conversion Attributes vs. Coal Generation
Competitive Capital
Costs
• Utilizes existing capital, sites and transmission
• $125 - $150/KW cost for burner conversion
Lower Operating
Cost
• 40-50% lower operating & sustaining capital
• 65% lower carbon costs
Ease of Conversion
• 60 days required to convert coal burners to gas
• Potential to add 15 years to Alberta coal fleet
&
Life Extension
Flexibility
• Similar ramping and lower minimum stable
requirements
Reduced Emissions
• 40% reduction in CO2 & up to 70% reduction in NOx
• 100% reduction in Mercury and SOx
Critical path items include:
Securing fuel supply and regulatory approval for gas pipeline
16
Coal-to-Gas Conversion vs Sundance 7
Coal-to-Gas
Conversion
New CCGT Facility
Cost
$125 to $150/KW
$1,500/KW
Investment life
15 years
30 years
Carbon Tax
Higher
Lower
Capacity
Backup
Baseload
Ramping
Slower
Faster
Coal-to-Gas conversions provide higher returns over a
shorter project life with less regulatory risk.
17
Brazeau Pumped Storage Opportunity – Expanding Our Alberta Hydro Platform
1 Leader in Alberta with 834 MW across 17 units
2 600 to 900 MW pumped storage expansion
3 Increases Brazeau capacity to 955 to 1,255
MW.
4 Low cost alternative to greenfield build out
Brazeau
5 Investment of ~$1.8 billion to ~$2.5 billion
6 Targeting 2021 commencement of construction,
subject to long-term contract
18
Brazeau Hydro – Looking Forward
1
2
1 New Turbines
2 New Dam
19
Brazeau Hydro – Benefits
Utilizes existing site and
infrastructure
Provides system support
as wind build-out occurs
Fast ramping
Perpetual assets –
existing fleet is 100 yrs.
old
20
Brazeau Hydro – Our Action Plan
Expected to be operational by the mid-2020’s
Key Actions to support execution:
•
Refine engineering and capital costs
•
Initiate stakeholder consultation and permitting
•
Develop and receive a long-term contract from the Alberta Govt
supporting the project
•
Apply for development/construction funding and support from the
Federal government
21
Alberta Renewables – Our Competitive Advantage
1
Wind sites in Alberta that are near existing transmission and in advanced
stages of development
2
300MW of renewable opportunities available for near-term AESO REP
3
Long-standing land owner relationships across Alberta
22
2016 Outlook
23
2016 Goals and Priorities
Secure a mutually beneficial coal transition arrangement
with the Alberta Government
Continue to reposition our capital structure
Continue to grow TransAlta Renewables Inc.
Continued focus on delivering strong operational, safety
and financial performance
24
2016 Outlook
2016 Outlook Ranges ($M)
Comparable EBITDA
$990
$1,100
Comparable Funds from Operations
Sustaining Capital
Pfd Share/Other Distributions
Comparable Free Cash Flow
$755
(330)
(175)
$250
$835
(350)
(185)
$300
Comparable Free Cash Flow Per Share
Annual Dividend
Dividend Payout Ratio
$0.86
$0.16
19%
$1.03
$0.16
15%
Range of Key Assumptions
Power Prices
Alberta Spot ($/MWH)
Alberta Contracted ($/Mwh)
Mid-C Spot (US$/MwH)
Mid-C Contracted (US$/MWh)
Other
Canadian Coal Availability
Hydro / Wind Resource
$
$
$
$
29
44
22
40
87%
-
-
P50
$
$
$
$
33
49
26
45
89%
25
2016 YTD vs 2016 Guidance
Comparable EBITDA
Comparable FFO
Guidance
$1,200
Guidance
$1,000
$1,000
$800
$800
$200
$200
$-
$835
$755
$990
$400
$535
$400
$771
$600
$1,100
$600
$YTD
Low
High
YTD
Comparable FCF
$400
Low
High
CAD Coal Availability
90%
Guidance
Guidance
$200
87%
86%
$300
$250
$206
$100
85%
89%
$300
80%
$YTD
Low
High
YTD
Low
High
26
Contracted Portfolio Supports Stable EBITDA
Total portfolio contractedness1
MW
85%
88%
73%
Merchant exposure in Alberta and the
Pacific NW
70%
2016 Hedge prices
AB ~$45 - $50/MWh
PacNW ~$40/MWh
6,000
5,000
4,000
2017 Hedge prices
AB ~$45 - $50/MWh
PacNW ~$45 - $50/MWh
3,000
Alberta
•
•
2,000
Well hedged through 2016
Market shocks allow opportunity to further
hedge at prices higher than the current
market
1,000
•
0
2016
2017
2018
2019
PPAs
Long-term contract
Short-term contract /
Hedges
Open Merchant
•
Pacific Northwest
Puget Sound Energy and other long-term
contracts provide base of between
~280MW and 380MW
Additional shorter-term hedges managed
dynamically to capture market volatility
Contract and hedging strategy underpin stable cashflows
(1) As of Sept 30, 2016
27
Financial
Strategy
28
Finance & Treasury Overview
Area of Focus
Liquidity
Execution
•
Average liquidity of $1.3B since 2014; liquidity of $1.7B at
September 30, 2016
$2.5
C$ Billion
$2.0
Cash
$1.5
Available
Liquidity
$1.0
Committed
Credit Facilities
$0.5
$0.0
Dec 31/14
Mar 31/15
Jun 30/15
Sep 30/15
Area of Focus
Financial Ratios
Dec 31/15
Mar 31/16 June 30/16 Sep 30/16
Execution
•
Consistently moved the mark on ‘Adjusted FFO to Adjusted Net
Debt’
Ratio
Q4/15
Q1/16
Q2/16
Q3/16
Target
Comparable FFO before Interest to Adjusted Interest
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.9
4 – 5x
Adjusted FFO to Adjusted Net Debt
15.2
16.2
16.5
17.6
20 – 25%
Adjusted Net Debt to Comparable EBITDA
5.0
4.6
4.3
4.1
3 – 3.5x
29
Repositioning our Capital Structure (2016 to 2018)
• Financing plan is expected to result in the appropriate allocation of
debt between TransAlta and TransAlta Renewables
C$B
Recourse Non-Recourse
Current (March 31, 2016)
$3.2
Project Financing
Debt Repayment (2016 - 2018)
Projected
$0.1
Recourse
$0.0
$0.7
$4.0
$0.6
$1.0
($0.2)
($1.2)
$1.1
$3.8
$0.4
1
($1.0)
$2.2
$0.5
TOTAL
NonRecourse
$0.0
Debt attributable to
coal and Alberta hydro facilities
(1) Includes repayment of intercompany credit facility
30
31
Leveraging TransAlta Renewables Inc.
TransAlta
~60-80%
Public
~20-40%
• TransAlta is the largest
shareholder of TransAlta
Renewables Inc. and will
maintain ~60-80% ownership
• Unlocks the value of long-life
contracted assets on attractive
terms
• Provides access to lower cost
funding
TransAlta Renewables
• Strong currency to support
accretive acquisition of third party
assets
TransAlta Corporation and TransAlta Renewables are strategically aligned
32
TransAlta Renewables (TSX:RNW)
•
Provides stable, consistent returns through the ownership of highly
contracted power generation and other infrastructure assets
Enterprise Value¹
$4.5 Billion
Market Cap.2
$3.4 Billion
2016E EBITDA
$365 - $390 Million
2016E CAFD
$210 - $235 Million
Dividend Yield
6.4%
Net Generating Capacity (incl. South Hedland)
2,441 MW
TransAlta Corporation’s Ownership
64%
Wind
Hydro
¹ Does not include capital required to complete South Hedland Project
2 Based on closing price as of November 30, 2016 and including Class B shares
Gas Fired
Gas Pipeline
Transmission
33
Significant Drop-Down Inventory
Potential Drop-Down Candidates from TransAlta Corporation
•
• 244 MW Poplar Creek facility in AB
Gas Fired
Generation
• ~150 MW from 4 facilities through TA Cogen
•
~$140M EBITDA
•
~800 MW from 13 units in Alberta, representing
90% of Alberta’s hydro
Alberta Hydro
Other
Renewables
~400 MW in Alberta & Ontario including:
•
~$60 - $120M EBITDA
•
20 MW wind facility in ON
•
45 MW wind facility in AB
•
50 MW wind facility in Minnesota
•
21 MW solar facilities in
Massachusetts
34
Appendix
35
Financial Performance by Business Segment
Business
Segment
(1)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
(2)
YTD
Canadian Coal
$273
$373
$311
$389
$393
$295
U.S. Coal
$211
$148
$67
$65
$67
$27
Gas
$275
$312
$332
$312
$330
$270
Wind
$163
$151
$181
$179
$176
$129
Hydro
$105
$127
$148
$87
$73
$62
Energy Marketing
$101
($13)
$58
$75
$37
$39
Corporate
($84)
($83)
($74)
($71)
($72)
($51)
$1,044
$1,016
$1,023
$1,036
$1,004
$771
$812
$788
$729
$762
$740
$535
EBITDA ($M)
Comp. EBITDA ($M)
Comp. FFO ($M)
(1)
(2)
Canadian Coal is normalized for provision adjustment included in 2015 EBITDA of $59 million relating to prior years
As at Sept 30, 2016
36
Upcoming Debt Maturities
$800
(1)
$167
$600
$400
$520
$200
(2)
$400
$400
$400
2019
2020
$0
2017
2018
USD
(1)
(2)
Debt related to RNW.
Includes USD$20 million of debt related to RNW.
CAD
37