JOURNAL OF PLANKTON RESEARCH j VOLUME 32 j NUMBER 12 j PAGES 1649 – 1660 j 2010 Monitoring changes in phytoplankton abundance and composition in the Northwest Atlantic: a comparison of results obtained by continuous plankton recorder sampling and colour satellite imagery ERICA J. H. HEAD1* AND PIERRE PEPIN2 1 1006, DARTMOUTH, NS, 5667, ST JOHN’S, NL, CANADA A1C 5X1 FISHERIES AND OCEANS CANADA, BEDFORD INSTITUTE OF OCEANOGRAPHY, PO BOX CANADA, NORTHWEST ATLANTIC FISHERIES CENTRE, PO BOX CANADA B2Y 4A2 2 AND FISHERIES AND OCEANS *CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: [email protected] Received May 14, 2010; accepted in principle July 13, 2010; accepted for publication August 14, 2010 Corresponding editor: Roger Harris Phytoplankton abundance in the NW Atlantic was measured by continuous plankton recorder (CPR) sampling along tracks between Iceland and the western Scotian Shelf from 1998 to 2006, when sea-surface chlorophyll (SSChl) measurements were also being made by ocean colour satellite imagery using the SeaWiFS sensor. Seasonal and inter-annual changes in phytoplankton abundance were examined using data collected by both techniques, averaged over each of four shelf regions and four deep ocean regions. CPR sampling had gaps (missing months) in all regions and in the four deep ocean regions satellite observations were too sparse between November and February to be of use. Average seasonal cycles of SSChl were similar to those of total diatom abundance in seven regions, to those of the phytoplankton colour index in six regions, but were not similar to those of total dinoflagellate abundance anywhere. Large inter-annual changes in spring bloom dynamics were captured by both samplers in shelf regions. Changes in annual (or 8 months) averages of SSChl did not generally follow those of the CPR indices within regions and multi-year averages of SSChl, and the three CPR indices were generally higher in shelf than in deep ocean regions. Remote sensing and CPR sampling provide complementary ways of monitoring phytoplankton in the ocean: the former has superior temporal and spatial coverage and temporal resolution, and the latter provides better taxonomic information. KEYWORDS: CPR phytoplankton indices; sea-surface chlorophyll; seasonal cycles; inter-annual trends doi:10.1093/plankt/fbq120, available online at www.plankt.oxfordjournals.org. Advance Access publication September 24, 2010 Published by Oxford University Press 2010 JOURNAL OF PLANKTON RESEARCH j VOLUME I N T RO D U C T I O N The earth is warming as a result of the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and this is causing temperatures to rise in many regions of the world’s oceans (IPCC, 2007). As well, as the oceans absorb more carbon dioxide, they are becoming more acidic (Orr et al., 2005). Carbon dioxide is converted into organic carbon by plants, both on land and in the ocean. Approximately 45% of the earth’s primary production has been attributed to oceanic phytoplankton (Falkowski et al., 2004), and some of this photosynthetically fixed carbon ultimately falls to the ocean floor, where it can remain sequestered for centuries. Changes in temperature and acidity and other indirect effects of global warming have the potential to affect phytoplankton composition, productivity and abundance in the ocean. These changes can in turn influence the fate of phytoplankton carbon: how much is transferred up the food chain, how much is respired (re-cycled) and how much sinks out. In our changing climate, it is important to monitor and document changes that are occurring in the phytoplankton and to increase our understanding of the interactions between climate and phytoplankton by investigating events occurring on inter-annual and inter-decadal time scales, in order to help in forecasting how marine ecosystems will respond to predicted climate change scenarios in the future. Two methods are currently being used to monitor phytoplankton at ocean basin scales: satellite remote sensing and in situ sampling by means of continuous plankton recorders (CPRs). Both methods have their strengths and weaknesses. The strengths of remote sensing are the ability to obtain nearly synoptic measurements over broad spatial scales with relatively frequent sampling, and the capacity for near real-time data retrieval. Weaknesses include a dependence on fair weather (i.e. clear skies), a limited capacity to retrieve taxonomic information (Sathyendranath et al., 2004; Raitsos et al., 2008), a reliance on the general applicability of algorithms for CASE I oceanic waters and a lack of algorithms for CASE II coastal waters, and the relatively short life-times of individual satellites. In contrast, CPR sampling is not weather dependent, has used a consistent sampling methodology since 1948 (Reid et al., 2003), and because organisms are collected, and identified and enumerated under the microscope, it can give taxonomic information to the genus and species level, with results that are equally valid in both oceanic and coastal waters. On the other hand, sampling is done only once a month, and is restricted to the trade routes of the commercial vessels that tow the CPRs, with date and route variations determined by the shipping companies. In addition, the data are semi-quantitative and only 32 j NUMBER 12 j PAGES 1649 – 1660 j 2010 available after sample analysis and data archiving, which is generally at least 1 year after sampling. Since 1998, Canadian scientists have been operating the Atlantic Zone Monitoring Programme (AZMP) to observe, document and investigate climatic and ecosystem changes in the Northwest Atlantic (Therriault et al., 1998). Satellite imagery and CPR sampling are components of the programme, and both include making observations in shelf and deep oceans regions: ocean colour data are routinely compiled from satellites surveying the entire Northwest Atlantic and CPR sampling is along the Z and E lines between Reykjavik, Iceland and St John’s Newfoundland, and between St John’s and the New England coast, respectively. Both types of sampling used consistent methodologies during the first 9 years (1998– 2006) of the AZMP, with the satellite mounted SeaWiFS sensor on the one hand, and the standard CPR sampling on the other. CPR sampling was deficient in 2007 and 2008, however, and from 2008 onwards there are missing months in the SeaWiFS data, as the satellite nears the end of its lifetime. Thus, sampling between 1998 and 2006 provides a 9-year period over which to compare results obtained in the Northwest Atlantic using the two methods. There have been previous studies comparing the results of satellite imagery and CPR sampling elsewhere, but these were calibration exercises aimed at making direct quantitative comparisons of results of CPR sampling over small portions of their tracks with results from satellite passes that were made along those tracks within a few days (Batten et al., 2003; Raitsos et al., 2005). Here, the question is not whether the CPR and ocean colour satellite imagery provide quantitatively comparable data for small areas of the ocean over short periods of time, but rather whether the two techniques, applied over relatively broad time and space scales, give the same patterns of change, either temporally in the same region (e.g. monthly and from year-to-year) or spatially over the longterm (e.g. shelf versus open ocean). The temporal resolution for the comparison is that set by the CPR sampling, which is monthly. The spatial (regional) divisions that were used were made on the basis of the distribution of the CPR sampling tracks, hydrography and bathymetry. The overall objectives of this study are to see whether CPR sampling and ocean colour satellite observations give similar changes in phytoplankton abundance for a series of regions in the NW Atlantic (1) for seasonal cycles averaged over the entire sampling period; (2) for seasonal cycles within individual years, and hence whether both methods capture inter-annual changes in spring bloom dynamics; (3) for inter-annual changes over the 9-year sampling period, and hence whether sea-surface chlorophyll (SSChl) concentrations can be estimated for decades prior to the 1990s and 2000s, 1650 E. HEAD AND P. PEPIN j COMPARISON OF CPR AND SATELLITE COLOUR IMAGERY when CPR data were available, but satellite data were not. The final objective is to see whether both sampling methodologies give the same spatial differences in longterm average values across regions, with consistent relationships between SSChl and the CPR phytoplankton indices in all regions. METHOD CPR plankton data The CPR is a mechanical sampler that is towed behind commercial vessels at a depth of 7 m. A complete description of CPR, its origin, history and operating procedures are given elsewhere (Reid et al., 2003). The essential elements that follow are as reported by Batten et al. (Batten et al., 2003). A square 1.2 cm aperture at the front allows water to enter and plankton are filtered onto a continuously moving band of silk gauze of mesh size 270 mm. Another roll of gauze is continuously drawn over the filtering gauze, once it has passed the entrance to the tunnel through which the water exits. The resulting sandwich is rolled on to a spool in a storage tank that contains formalin as a preservative. Once the tow and the ship’s voyage are complete, the roll is returned to the laboratory of the Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science (SAHFOS), the organization that operates the CPR survey in the North Atlantic, where the gauzes are laid out and cut into sections that are equivalent to 18 km of towing. Every second sample was analysed for this study. Data on the phytoplankton colour index (PCI) and the abundance of diatoms and dinoflagellates were provided by SAHFOS under a Joint Project Agreement with Fisheries and Oceans Canada. The PCI gives a semi-quantitative estimate of total phytoplankton biomass. It is determined by laying the CPR silk against a white background and by assigning each 18 km sample a colour category, by reference to a standard colour chart (Colebrook, 1960), with four categories having nominal intensities of 0, 1, 2 and 6.5 (Hays and Lindley, 1994). Although the nominal size of the mesh is 270 mm, the gauze is made of silk which therefore retains particles that are much smaller so that PCI is considered to be an index of overall phytoplankton biomass. Diatoms and dinoflagellates are identified to as high a taxonomic level as is practicable, on 20 fields of view of diameter 295 mm, at 450 magnification, but a “binning” procedure is used so that not all cells are examined individually and abundance estimates are, such as the PCI, semi-quantitative. In this study, the abundance of all species of diatom or dinoflagellate taxa were summed for each sample, which represents 3 m3. Total diatom and total dinoflagellate abundances per sample were log (N þ 1) transformed, and values within each sampling region (Fig. 1) were averaged for each month of each year. Values for the PCI were averaged in the same way but without the log (N þ 1) transformation. CPR sampling did not occur in all months in every region and in order to calculate annual averages for the phytoplankton indices, we needed to fill in for the missing months. To do this, when there were data in the preceding and subsequent months, the average of these was used to fill in the missing value. In some instances, there were two consecutive missing months and in these cases, linear interpolation between the preceding and subsequent months’ values was used to estimate missing observations. The two procedures are essentially the same, with the degree of interpolation depending on the length of the gap. This linear interpolation procedure would have smoothed out extreme events and would have led to conservative values for annual averages: this was judged to being preferable to using a fixed seasonal cycle (e.g. Richardson et al., 2006). In three cases where three consecutive months were missing, we used the monthly average from all sampled years between 1998 and 2006 to fill in the values for the missing months. SeaWiFS-derived chlorophyll concentrations SeaWiFS data were acquired from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center’s Ocean Colour Data Processing System (OCDPS) and are the result of a reprocessing that took place in 2004. Data used were Level 3, monthly average products (99 km resolution) of near sea-surface chlorophyll a concentration (SSChl, mg m23), estimated using the Ocean Chlorophyll 4—version 4 (OC4-v4) algorithm (O’Reilly et al., 1998), with corrections for atmospheric influences, such as cloud cover, sun-glint and water vapour. SSChl concentrations were computed as monthly averages over each region, which were defined by rectangles that included all sampling positions along the CPR tracks between 1957 and 2006, but omitting those to the north of 508N between 45 and 538W (Table I). In some regions for some months, satellite data were scarce because of cloud cover. In our comparison, we used data only for months when there were observations covering more than 10% of the pixels in a given region in every year. The latitudinal limits of the regions were based primarily on the areas covered by the CPR tracks in all sampling years since 1957, but the ranges in the deep ocean regions were quite large, and we recognized that phytoplankton dynamics might vary with latitude within these regions. We therefore tested the effect of using SSChl concentrations calculated for the entire 1651 JOURNAL OF PLANKTON RESEARCH j VOLUME 32 j NUMBER 12 j PAGES 1649 – 1660 j 2010 Fig. 1. Positions where individual CPR samples were collected between 1957 and 2006 and boxes over which satellite measurements of sea-surface chlorophyll were averaged. Black symbols are the sample positions between 1998 and 2006; grey symbols are from earlier sampling years (1957–1997). The bathymetry is represented by the 200, 1000, 2000 and 3000 m contours. The shelf regions are the western Scotian Shelf (WSS), the eastern Scotian Shelf (ESS), the South Newfoundland Shelf (SNL), the Newfoundland Shelf (NLS). The regions east of the shelf are defined by their longitudinal limits (e.g. 40–458W is bounded by 408W and 458W). Table I: Longitudinal and latitudinal limits Analysis of the regions over which satellite derived SSChl concentrations were treated as the dependent varivalues of sea-surface chlorophyll were averaged able and contrasted with CPR indices of abundance Region Southern limit (88 N) Northern limit (88 N) Western limit (88 W) Eastern limit (88 W) WSS ESS SNL NLS 40 –458W 35 –408W 30 –358W 25 –308W 41.70 43.34 44.58 44.28 45.55 48.53 53.32 56.45 44.82 46.43 47.30 50.00 60.47 61.58 62.76 64.39 66.00 62.00 57.00 53.00 45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 62.00 57.00 53.06 45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 WSS, western Scotian Shelf; ESS, eastern Scotian Shelf; SNL, South Newfoundland Shelf; NLS, Newfoundland Shelf. regions versus those calculated using values for a series of sub-regions, which had the same longitudinal limits, but with latitudinal limits reduced such that they still covered most of the CPR tracks run in 1998 – 2006. These sub-regions corresponded to the middle thirds of the 40– 458W and 35– 408W regions, having latitudinal limits of 50.52 – 55.508N and 57.23 – 61.588N, respectively, and to the northern halves of the 30– 358W and 25– 308W regions, having latitudinal limits of 58.04 – 62.768N and 60.42 –64.398N, respectively. using univariate regression analysis for each region separately to compare temporal patterns of change (comparing regional monthly and annual averages) and over all regions to compare spatial patterns (comparing multi-year averages). Multivariate analyses were also performed, but found to give no better results than univariate analysis. Thus, the results are not presented here. R E S U LT S Comparisons for overall data sets Satellite data were inadequate or unavailable in December for the Newfoundland Shelf (NLS) region, and in January, February, November and December for all regions east of 458W. Gaps in the CPR data occurred at random in all regions and there was no year in which every region was sampled in every month. In general, however, CPR samples were collected in at least 8 months of the year in every year in all regions. Exceptions were in 2002 in the South Newfoundland Shelf (SNL) region 1652 E. HEAD AND P. PEPIN j COMPARISON OF CPR AND SATELLITE COLOUR IMAGERY (7 months sampled) and the 25–308W region (6 months sampled). There were two consecutive missing months on the eastern Scotian Shelf (ESS) in 2000 and 2002, on the SNL in 2000 and on the NLS in 2005. There were three consecutive months missing on the SNL and in the 40– 458W and 25–308W regions in 2002. When all of the monthly average values from all regions were included (excluding months and regions for which there was either no satellite data or no CPR data) CPR estimates of PCI, diatoms and dinoflagellates increased with increasing SSChl (Fig. 2) and all three CPR indices were significantly positively correlated with SSChl (P , 0.001), although there was considerable scatter in the data. Seasonal cycles of SSChl concentration and CPR indices of phytoplankton abundance Average seasonal cycles for the 9 years of data were calculated from the monthly averages for all four indices, using only the months for which there were data, i.e. omitting missing CPR sampling months and the months for which satellite data were unreliable (Fig. 3). For the shelf regions, peaks in monthly averages for diatom abundance, PCI and SSChl were more-or-less co-incident, with maximal values in April. All shelf regions also showed low values for these three variables in summer, and increases in fall. For dinoflagellates, abundances on the Scotian Shelf were low in spring and higher in summer and fall, whereas those in the Newfoundland Shelf regions (SNL and NLS) were high in spring, but with no obvious spring peak, low in summer and high in fall. In the 40– 458W region, all variables had a late spring peak (May or June) of lower intensity than for shelf regions, and a prolonged period of intermediate abundance during summer and fall. East of 408W, all of the CPR indices had low values in winter (December– March) and SSChl values were low in March. Increases in phytoplankton abundance in spring occurred later in deep water regions than in shelf regions and spring peaks were of lower maximum value. In the deep ocean regions, phytoplankton levels generally did not decrease much during summer, remaining relatively high throughout summer and fall. For the monthly averages shown in Fig. 3, there were significant positive correlations (P , 0.05) between diatom abundance and SSChl in all regions except the 30– 358W region and between PCI and SSChl in the six regions west of 358W (Table II). There were no significant relationships between dinoflagellates and SSChl anywhere. It should be noted that these regressions included 12 months in each of the three most westerly regions, but because of the lack of satellite data during Fig. 2. Relationships between individual monthly regional averages of sea-surface chlorophyll and the phytoplankton colour index (top panel), diatom abundance (middle panel) or dinoflagellate abundance (bottom panel). winter months at high latitudes, the regressions included only 11 months in the NLS region (January – November) and only 8 months in the four most easterly regions (March –October). The average seasonal cycle of SSChl over the entire 40–458W region was similar to that over the sub-region covering the middle third of the latitudinal range (Fig. 4), which was the area through which most of the CPR tracks ran in 1998–2006 (Fig. 1). For the 35–408W region, the sub-region covering the middle third of the latitudinal range, which also covered most of the CPR tracks, had higher monthly values than were found for the entire region. Average seasonal cycles in the northern sub-regions of the 30–358W and 25–308W regions were very similar to those for the entire regions, and again 1653 JOURNAL OF PLANKTON RESEARCH j VOLUME 32 j NUMBER 12 j PAGES 1649 – 1660 j 2010 Fig. 3. Average (1998–2006) seasonal cycles of diatom abundance (DIATS), dinoflagellate abundance (DINOS), the phytoplankton colour index (PCI) and satellite derived chlorophyll (SSCHL) concentration for regions in the Northwest Atlantic. Table II: Results of regression analyses between monthly average (1998– 2006) values for the phytoplankton colour index (PCI) and satellite-based measurements of sea-surface chlorophyll (SSChl) concentration, and between diatom or dinoflagellate abundance and SSChl concentration in eight regions in the Northwest Atlantic Region PCI, r 2 Diatom abundance, r 2 Dinoflagellate abundance, r 2 WSS ESS SNL NLS 40 –458W 35 –408W 30 –358W 25 –308W 0.69** 0.73** 0.83** 0.89** 0.59* 0.64* NS NS 0.88** 0.49* 0.39* 0.55** 0.75** 0.68* NS 0.51* NS NS NS NS NS NS NS NS Note that the comparison is made over 12 months for the WSS, ESS and SNL, for 11 months for the NLS and for 8 months for regions between 45 and 258W (*denotes relationships significant at the P , 0.05 level; **, at the P , 0.01) and that there was no interpolation for missing months in the CPR data. these sub-regions covered most of the CPR tracks between 1998 and 2006. For all four deep ocean regions, the same significant correlations were found for the average seasonal cycles between PCI and sub-regional SSChl concentrations as were found for the entire regions (Table II). In contrast, diatom abundance was significantly correlated with sub-regional SSChl concentration in the 30–358W region (r 2 ¼ 0.70, P , 0.01) and not in the 25–308W region; the opposite pattern to that seen for the entire regions. In addition, dinoflagellate abundance was significantly correlated with sub-regional SSChl concentration in the 35–408W region (r 2 ¼ 0.55, P , 0.05) and the 30–358W region (r 2 ¼ 0.65, P , 0.05). For individual years, monthly values for SSChl were significantly correlated (P , 0.05) with PCI in 7 years out of 9 in the NLS region, in 5 years on the ESS, in 4 years in the SNL region, in 3 years on the WSS and in 0 – 2 years elsewhere. Monthly SSChl values were correlated with diatom abundance values in 7 years in the NLS region, in 5 years on the WSS, in 3 years in the 30– 358W region and in 0 – 2 years elsewhere. Monthly values for SSChl were correlated with dinoflagellate abundance values in 0 – 1 years everywhere. Using the sub-regional values of SSChl for the deep ocean regions, instead of the regional values, gave similar results. Inter-annual trends in SSChl concentration and CPR indices of phytoplankton abundance Annual or “year-round” averages of the CPR phytoplankton indices were estimated by including interpolated values for missing months (Fig. 5). Annual (12 months) averages were calculated for the Scotian (WSS, ESS) and South Newfoundland (SNL) shelves, while “year-round” (using only the months for which reliable satellite data were available) averages were calculated for the other regions (January – November, in the NLS region and March– October, in regions east of 458W). These were compared with annual or year-round averages for SSChl. There were only two significant correlations between any of the CPR phytoplankton indices and SSChl in any of the regions over the 9 years of sampling. One was between PCI and SSChl on the 1654 E. HEAD AND P. PEPIN j COMPARISON OF CPR AND SATELLITE COLOUR IMAGERY Fig. 4. Comparison of average monthly (upper row) and year-round (lower row) estimates of sea-surface chlorophyll for regions between 45 and 258W in the NW Atlantic over the entire latitudinal ranges shown in Fig. 1 (regional SSChl) or in the middle one-third (40– 45 and 35–408W) or northern half (30– 35 and 25–308N) (sub-regional SSChl). Fig. 5. Annual or year-round averages for diatom abundance (DIATS), dinoflagellate abundance (DINOS), the phytoplankton colour index (PCI) and satellite derived chlorophyll (SSCHL) concentration for regions in the Northwest Atlantic. NLS (r 2 ¼ 0.45, P , 0.05) and was negative; the other was diatom abundance and SSChl in the 35– 408W region (r 2 ¼ 0.51, P , 0.05) and was positive. Using the sub-regional SSChl values for the deep ocean regions, rather than the regional values, gave the same results. Regional differences in multi-year average SSChl concentrations and CPR indices of phytoplankton abundance Multi-year (1998 – 2006) average PCI values and diatom and dinoflagellate abundances were calculated from the annual or year-round averages as calculated above, i.e. including interpolated values for missing months (Fig. 6). For the CPR data, these were higher for shelf regions than for open ocean regions when all months of the year were included, while for the SSChl data annual averages were higher on the Scotian Shelf than was the annual average on the SNL or the January – November average on the NLS. When the March– October averages were used to compare across all regions, the regional differences in diatom abundance more-or-less disappeared, while the patterns did not change much for the other two CPR indices or for 1655 JOURNAL OF PLANKTON RESEARCH j VOLUME 32 j NUMBER 12 j PAGES 1649 – 1660 j 2010 Fig. 6. Regional multi-year (1998– 2006) annual average abundances for diatoms, dinoflagellates and the phytoplankton colour index, and regional annual or year-round averages for sea-surface chlorophyll concentration, including 12 months of data for the CPR indices in all regions and 12 (WSS, ESS, SNL), 11 (NLS) or 8 (45– 258W) of data per year for sea-surface chlorophyll concentration (left-hand column). Regional 1998– 2006 average March– October abundances for all regions for diatoms, dinoflagellates, the PCI and satellite derived chlorophyll concentrations (right-hand column). SSChl. The multi-year year-round (March– October) averages for the PCI and dinoflagellate abundance were significantly correlated with SSChl across regions (r 2 ¼ 0.52, P , 0.05 and r 2 ¼ 0.58, P , 0.05, respectively, data as in right hand column of Fig. 5). When all months that had satellite data were used to calculate regional annual or year-round averages, diatom and dinoflagellate abundance were significantly correlated with SSChl across regions (r 2 ¼ 0.61, P , 0.05 and r 2 ¼ 0.52, P , 0.05, respectively, data as in left hand column of Fig. 5). DISCUSSION Regional hydrography and remarks concerning inter- and intra-regional and temporal variability In this study, we have compared the results of two methods of measuring phytoplankton abundance at ocean basin scales, either of which can be used to monitor ecosystem change. Because CPR sampling is monthly, this is the highest temporal resolution that 1656 E. HEAD AND P. PEPIN j COMPARISON OF CPR AND SATELLITE COLOUR IMAGERY could be used in this comparison. In terms of spatial resolution, when CPR data are being used there is always a trade-off between how much segmentation can be applied before losing too much data and the statistical power of the results. In this study, we have used the same divisions as were used elsewhere in a study of the inter-decadal variability of CPR phytoplankton and zooplankton abundance in the NW Atlantic since 1957 (Head and Pepin, this volume). The choice as to how to divide the study area here and there was based mainly on where the CPR tracks have been run since 1957, and on the regional hydrography and bathymetry, bearing in mind the problems associated with excessive segmentation. The Scotian Shelf is strongly influenced by the outflow from the Gulf of St Lawrence (Loder et al., 1998), through Cabot Strait, although the influx of slope water into central regions, and subsequent westward advection, means that the WSS is generally warmer than the ESS and that distributions of some plankton species are somewhat different (e.g. Calanus species, Head et al., 1999). For this reason, the Scotian Shelf was divided into western and eastern regions. On the Newfoundland Shelf, the inshore branch of the Labrador Current has a strong influence in both the NLS and SNL regions, but while the NLS region is also influenced by the offshore branch of the Labrador Current beyond the shelf-break, the SNL is not, which is why these two regions were separated. Farther east, the deep ocean regions were divided at 58 longitudinal intervals, although all four regions were more or less within the sub-polar gyre. The 40– 458W region covers the central gyre, but includes a small area over Flemish Cap in the west and the Greenland Shelf in the north. The 35– 408W region covers the western Irminger Sea, with water depths of .2000 m, the 30– 358W region covers the central Irminger Sea and the portion of the Reykjanes Ridge .1000 m in depth, and the 25– 308W region covers the eastern Irminger Sea and the portion of the Reykjanes Ridge ,1000 m in depth. The three regions between 30 and 458W have had very similar average temperatures over the decades since the 1960s (Head and Pepin, this volume), whereas the 25 –308W region has been a little warmer than the others, since it covers an area where a portion of the North Atlantic Current turns north to form the Irminger Current (Bersch, 1995). East of 458W, the latitudinal ranges covered by the CPR tracks were large, especially during the sampling years prior to the 1990s. Here, however, we have shown that between 1998 and 2006, satellite determinations of SSChl over the entire latitudinal range of each deep ocean region were generally very similar to those in sub-regions that were more restricted, but that still covered most of the CPR tracks between 1998 and 2006 (Fig. 4), and we have also shown that the use of the regional (rather than sub-regional) SSChl values did not affect our findings. Nevertheless, it is probable that the spatial and temporal differences in the methods of data collection did influence the results of our methodological comparison. Variability is characteristic of the distributions of phytoplankton in the ocean and it occurs over wide ranges of spatial and temporal scales (Mann and Lazier, 1996). The strongest and most widespread signal in temperate regions, such as those included in this study, is the seasonal cycle, with low phytoplankton levels occurring in winter and high levels in blooms in spring and/or fall. In addition, however, phytoplankton blooms can occur locally at any time during the growth season in areas where surface nutrient levels are enhanced, such as at fronts or associated with meso-scale eddies in the open ocean, or as the result of tidal mixing or coastal upwelling in shelf regions. All of these processes occur within one or more of our study regions, and sub-regional spatial (,100 km) and temporal (, monthly) variability is evident in satellite images of SSChl and temperature (e.g. see http://www.mar.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/science/ocean/ ias/seawifs/). Satellite observations made over relatively large areas, such as those used in this study, will tend to “average out” spatially localized blooms. In addition, as blooms are often ephemeral, lasting only 1 or 2 weeks, monthly averaging will further reduce values obtained for satellite derived SSChl concentrations for a given region, compared with the maximum value that might actually have occurred somewhere within that region over a few days. In contrast, CPR sampling is spatially restricted along the ships’ tracks and occurs over the course of a day or less for each of our regions. Hence, CPR sampling could sometimes capture local, shortlived bloom events within a region, or could miss them altogether. Thus, close relationships between SSChl and CPR phytoplankton indices were not to be expected, although with enough data we had hoped to be able to see large signals reflected in the data sets collected by either method, which, to a large extent, we did. When we compared CPR and satellite data for all regions and all months (Fig. 2) there was a considerable amount of scatter, but overall, and for the PCI and diatom abundance especially, the CPR indices did increase with increasing SSChl. The distributions of the CPR data, however, also highlighted another factor that could further confound methodological comparisons. The CPR indices, and especially those for diatom abundance and PCI, tended towards upper limits, which correspond to the maximum values that can be recorded according to the CPR analytical protocols used at SAHFOS. No individual phytoplankton species can 1657 JOURNAL OF PLANKTON RESEARCH j VOLUME exceed a count of 750 000 cells per sample, and no sample can have a value greater than 6.5 for the PCI (Batten et al., 2003). Thus, if phytoplankton levels are very high, CPR methods will underestimate phytoplankton abundance, relatively to values that could be observed by satellite. Inspection of the data suggested that in this study, this occurred only in shelf regions and always in ,12% and generally ,5% of the original samples, and so this was probably not a problem here, but elsewhere it could be more important. Average regional seasonal cycles and observations in years with unusual spring bloom dynamics Average seasonal cycles of diatom abundance and the PCI were similar to those of SSChl in all of the study regions (Fig. 3), despite the differences that could have been generated by the different sampling methods. In other work comparing SeaWiFS-derived chlorophyll and CPR data, the PCI was used as the main CPR index of phytoplankton biomass (Batten et al., 2003; Raitsos et al., 2005). In this study, however, average monthly values of the PCI were correlated with SSChl in six out of eight regions, while diatom abundance was correlated with SSChl in these six plus one more (Table II). This suggests that diatoms dominate the phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll) over most of the NW Atlantic study area. Regression parameters (slopes and intercepts) for the SSChl versus diatom abundance and SSChl versus PCI varied among regions (data not shown), however, suggesting that the relationship between the CPR indices and total phytoplankton biomass is not uniform over all study regions. CPR indices were not correlated with SSChl in most regions in most individual years, even when they were over the average seasonal cycle, and this could be related to several factors. One is that sometimes critical (i.e. bloom) months were missing from the CPR data sets, which would have greatly diminished the magnitude of the seasonal signal. As well, however, the differences in spatial and temporal resolution of the data collection methods would have been accentuated when data from single months and years were used. These same factors, together with an imperfect method for interpolating missing CPR data, could also have contributed to the lack of correlation between the CPR indices and SSChl on an inter-annual basis (see below). The occurrence of missing months in the CPR data set sometimes made it difficult to distinguish when the spring bloom started or when it peaked in individual years. This is an important question because changes in the timing of the spring bloom influence the timing of 32 j NUMBER 12 j PAGES 1649 – 1660 j 2010 zooplankton reproduction and the recruitment success of several commercially important finfish and invertebrates (Ellertsen et al., 1989; Head et al., 2005; Koeller et al., 2009). Between 1998 and 2006, there were only a few years when we could look for these changes because of missing months in the CPR data and even when the data were adequate, in most years seasonal cycles were similar. Nevertheless, for one sampling year (1999), on the Scotian Shelf (WSS and ESS) diatom abundance and the PCI were much higher in January – March than they were on average (cf. Figures 3 and 7) and the SSChl peak was a month earlier than usual. Also, in 2003 in the SNL and NLS regions, the same three indices suggested the bloom was later, or lasted longer, than average. The details of the dynamics of the CPR and SSChl signals were not entirely consistent in either year, however. For the deep water regions, neither the SSChl nor the CPR indices showed any obvious year-to-year differences in seasonal cycles. Thus, on the basis of our limited observations, our assessment is that in regions where spring bloom peaks are well-defined and large, major changes in timing (by 1 month or more) are probably captured by both sampling methods. Inter-decadal changes in spring bloom dynamics have been observed by means of CPR sampling on the Scotian Shelf between the 1970s and 1990s (Head and Sameoto, 2007), but overall we suggest that satellite measurements are preferable for defining the timing of spring blooms, firstly because the superior temporal resolution of the data and secondly because the time series are usually complete. Inter-annual variations in phytoplankton biomass Inter-annual changes in CPR indices rarely matched those in SSChl in any region, despite the relatively large year-to-year changes in diatom abundance in WSS, ESS and NLS regions and the relatively large and consistent positive trends in diatom and dinoflagellate abundance between 2002 or 2003 and 2006 in regions east of 458W. As suggested above, gaps in the CPR data sets, and spatial and temporal variability within regions may have had some influence on these results, but this could perhaps be reduced including more “pseudo-replicates”, for example, by comparing multi-year periods. This is how Head and Sameoto (Head and Sameoto, 2007) and Head and Pepin (this volume) investigated time series trends in CPR-derived plankton abundances in the NW Atlantic; by comparing annual averages calculated over years within decadal, or near decadal, periods. Head and Pepin (this volume) found significant increases in the decadal annual 1658 E. HEAD AND P. PEPIN j COMPARISON OF CPR AND SATELLITE COLOUR IMAGERY Fig. 7. Seasonal cycles of diatom abundance (DIATS), dinoflagellate abundance (DINOS), the phytoplankton colour index (PCI) and satellite derived chlorophyll (SSCHL) concentration for shelf regions, for years where the bloom was early (WSS, ESS, 1999, upper row) or late (SNL, NLS, 2003, bottom row). averages for the PCI in all shelf regions used here between the 1970s and the 1990s, for diatom abundance in all shelf regions except the NLS and for dinoflagellates in all shelf regions except the WSS. In all cases, however, there were no significant differences in decadal averages between the 1990s (1992 – 1999) and the 2000s (2000 – 2006). Thus, for shelf regions, the changes within the sampling period used here were not as large as they have been in the past, suggesting that if satellites with ocean colour sensors flying had been flying in the decades prior to the 1990s, then they perhaps would have recorded lower decadal average annual phytoplankton levels. Head and Pepin (this volume) found small increases in diatom and dinoflagellate abundances in the 2000s over the 1990s in all deep ocean regions, and very slight increases in the PCI in the 1990s compared with the 1980s. The variability associated with these decadal averages was such, however, that these changes were not significant. The fact that the pronounced increases in diatom abundance in the early 2000s did not show up in the SSChl data is disappointing (Fig. 5), although in one region there was a positive correlation (35 – 408W). SSChl levels on the SNL and NLS were lower than might have been expected from the observations of PCI and diatom abundance, which is another manifestation of the fact that the relationships between these CPR indices and total phytoplankton biomass varied among regions. This variability would also have influenced relationships across regions between the multi-year annual or year-round averages of CPR indices and those of SSChl, which were, nevertheless, significant in four out of six cases. A variety of factors might contribute to the inter-regional differences in relationships between individual CPR indices and SSChl, including, for example, differences in the composition of the phytoplankton community, in terms of size structure and optical properties, which probably vary both regionally and seasonally. Whatever the explanation, however, our observations provide a cautionary note for those using data of different types from different sources over different time scales. We suggest that more comparative studies, such as this one, need to be carried out for more different regions, so that we can have a better understanding of how to inter-weave the different data types in long-term basin scale studies. Inter-regional differences in phytoplankton biomass CONCLUDING REMARKS Multi-year (1998 – 2006) annual averages of phytoplankton levels derived from CPR measurements were higher in shelf regions than in the open ocean (Fig. 6), although when the winter months were omitted, diatom abundance was more or less the same everywhere. Remote sensing and CPR sampling provide useful and complementary ways of monitoring phytoplankton in the open ocean. Both contribute something different: remote sensing has superior temporal and spatial coverage and temporal resolution (except in winter at high 1659 JOURNAL OF PLANKTON RESEARCH j VOLUME latitudes), while CPR sampling allows species identification, so that it can be used to examine questions related to phytoplankton composition and diversity. In addition, CPR sampling has been carried out in the NW Atlantic since the late 1950s, so that it allows us a view of the past, when there was no monitoring by satellite. 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