1.5 Hour PowerPoint Presentation
Civilization vs. the Oil Age
A MOST CRITICAL SUBJECT
1
Excerpts from the new book
The End of Fossil Energy and Per Capita Oil
(FIFTH EDITION)
This book is available directly from the author,
John Howe by email at: [email protected]
or our websites www.solarcarandtractor.com and
www.PerCapitaOil.com
Oil is a Most Important Natural Resource and
Absolutely Fundamental to Industrialized Civilization
2
Oil is finite and non-renewable.
Oil provides the basic energy source for:
•  food for seven billion people.
•  most of the energy for modern transportation.
•  support of other energy sources.
•  raw materials for plastics and lubricants.
World Per Capita Oil Use
3
China
World Average
Russia
All Western Europe
U.S.
U.S. Gasoline Only*
0
5
10
15
Barrels per person per year
20
25
* In the U.S. we consume more gasoline (to drive three trillion miles each year)
than other countries consume in total combined oil.
World Annual Oil Use
4
World*
U.S.**
Western Europe
China
U.S. (gasoline only)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Billion barrels/year
30
* The world uses one billion barrels of oil every 11 days.
** In the U.S. we use approximately ¼ of the world total oil consumption
and one-half of that for gasoline
35
The World Oil Age
IN TWO
80 YEAR LIFETIMES
5
Oil industry forecasts
Peak extraction rate
(including natural gas liquids)
35
Billion barrels per year
30
25
20
In the last 30 years
we have used onehalf of the total oil
extracted to date.
Typical finite resource
decline rate
(Hubbert’s bell shaped curve)
15
10
5
0
1900
1.2 trillion barrels
already used
in 80 years
1.2 trillion barrels
remaining
80 years
2015
1950
2000
2050
2100
In the span of two lifetimes we will have used
almost all of the oil reserves in the world.
2150
The U.S. Oil Age
IN TWO
80 YEAR LIFETIMES
6
Billion barrels per year
8
Consumption
7
6
5
4
Extraction
3
2
Horizontal “fracking” and
other expensive
non-conventional sources
2015
1
0
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
U.S. consumption rate grew while our extraction rate
(including fracking and nonconventional) declined and recovered.
World Population Growth
IN TWO
80 YEAR LIFETIMES
12
Billions of people
10 100
8
80
6
60
4
40
2
20
0
1900
Millions of barrels of oil per day
7
2 child per female
food gap
1 child per female
0 child per female
and oil extraction rate
2015
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
The present world population growth rate is still over 2 children per female. Even if
we reduce the growth rate to 1 child per female we still have a food gap between the
global availabity of oil and the number of people who need it to survive.
Focus on U.S. Gasoline Consumption
8
Billion barrels per year
4
All China oil
All Western Europe
U.S gasoline
3
2
1
2015
0
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
In the U.S. we consume as much gasoline as China’s total oil consumption.
Time Remaining in the Oil Age
9
Total World Oil Age
1.2 trillion barrels divided by
32 billion barrels per year
U.S. Oil Age
3½ billion barrels from U.S.
and 3½ from the rest of world
U.S. Oil Age
49 billion barrels left in U.S. (optimistic)
divided by 7 billion barrels per year
(all from the U.S.) equals 7 years
(half the oil
from the U.S.
as it is now)
(all oil from
the U.S.)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
7 years left at the present consumption rate
35
40 Years
Percent of All World Energy
10
Oil*
Coal*
Finite
energy
sources
Natural gas*
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewable
energy
sources
Cannot be increased
Biofuels
Wind and solar
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Percent (%)
* Oil, coal, and natural gas are finite and contribute to elevated levels of greenhouse gas.
U.S. Liquid Fuel Consumption
11
Total
Gasoline
Distillate*
Jet fuel
Everything else**
0
1
2
3
4
5
Billion barrels per year
* Diesel and heating oil.
** Including support of other energy sources.
6
7
8
Lower Price Leads Decline in Production
100
80
60
40
20
0
U.S. and World Oil Rig Count (Baker-Hughs)
Average Oil Market Price ($’s/barrel, wti)
12
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
$
World
U.S.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
• Lower price stimulates demand but discourages supply.
• After ten years of increasing oil prices and consumer debt, insufficient U.S. wealth
remains to support sustained recovery and high price.
The Case for 50% Gasoline Rationing
13
All gasoline use
50% reduction in use
Compared to:
All China oil
All Japan oil
All Russia oil
0
1
2
Billion barrels per year
3
4
Other Positives for Gasoline Rationing
14
•  Consumption of 400 million gallons per day.
50% reduction to 200 million gallons per day.
•  200 million gallons per day x $3 per gallon =
$600 million per day or $0.22 trillion per year back into economy.
•  Gasoline rationing would encourage mass transportation,
electric cars, and bicycles.
•  Gasoline rationing would lower the cost of oil for other needs.
•  Gasoline rationing electronic swipe cards could be saved or sold.
Gasoline Rationing vs. all CO2 Sources
15
World total: 36 billion metric tons per year
1/3 from China: 10.5 billion tons
1/7 from U.S.: 5.3 billion tons
U.S. coal: 1.7 billion tons
U.S. natural gas: 1.4 billion tons
U.S. liquid fuels: 2.2 billion tons
(including U.S. gasoline 1.1 billion tons)
50% gas rationing reduction =
0.5 billion metric tons per year
= 5% of all China’s or 10% of all U.S. CO2 emissions
Other Directly Related Issues
16
The following chapters refer to the book The End of Fossil Energy and Per Capita Oil
Chapter 3
•  A call for personal involvement
•  Educate yourself, see Bibliography, websites
•  Join mass movements
•  Get into gardening
•  Have a stand-alone solar survival system
Chapter 5
•  A solar electric future, potential and limitations:
cars, tractors, airplanes?? 18 wheelers??
•  Battery storage, weight, recycling??
•  Cost and hazards of lithium
Other Directly Related Issues (continued)
17
Chapter 6
•  Population and immigration demographics
Chapter 8
•  Food availability on world, national, local, and personal scales
Chapter 9
•  Localization, transition, resilience movements
Chapter 10
•  The end of economic growth
Chapter 11
•  The desparate need for decisive leadership
•  Autocracy vs. democracy? (Plato’s “philosopher king”)
Conclusions
18
•  Our civilization is at the tipping point.
•  Seriously question the future of a child born today.
•  Climate change is a longer-term and therefore less
serious problem.
•  Please help network these thoughts.
John Howe
www.solarcarandtractor.com
www.PerCapitaOil.com
You tube.com/Howe Triple Crisis