Journal of Biogeography (J. Biogeogr.) (2011) 38, 664–680 ORIGINAL ARTICLE Early evolutionary history of the flowering plant family Annonaceae: steady diversification and boreotropical geodispersal Thomas L. P. Couvreur1*, Michael D. Pirie2, Lars W. Chatrou3, Richard M. K. Saunders4, Yvonne C. F. Su4, James E. Richardson5,6 and Roy H. J. Erkens7 1 The New York Botanical Garden, 200th St and Kazimiroff Blvd, Bronx, NY 10458-5126, USA, 2Department of Biochemistry, University of Stellenbosch, Private Bag X1, Matieland 7602, Western Cape, South Africa, 3Nationaal Herbarium Nederland – Wageningen branch, Biosystematics Group, Wageningen University, Generaal Foulkesweg 37, 6703 BL, Wageningen, The Netherlands, 4Division of Ecology & Biodiversity, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, China, 5Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh, 20A Inverleith Row, Edinburgh EH3 5LR, UK, 6Depto de Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad de Los Andes, Cra 1A No. 18A-10, Edificio J – Piso 4, Bogotá, Colombia, 7Institute of Environmental Biology, Ecology and Biodiversity group, Utrecht University, Padualaan 8, 3584 CH Utrecht, The Netherlands ABSTRACT Aim Rain forest-restricted plant families show disjunct distributions between the three major tropical regions: South America, Africa and Asia. Explaining these disjunctions has become an important challenge in biogeography. The pantropical plant family Annonaceae is used to test hypotheses that might explain diversification and distribution patterns in tropical biota: the museum hypothesis (low extinction leading to steady accumulation of species); and dispersal between Africa and Asia via Indian rafting versus boreotropical geodispersal. Location Tropics and boreotropics. Methods Molecular age estimates were calculated using a Bayesian approach based on 83% generic sampling representing all major lineages within the family, seven chloroplast markers and two fossil calibrations. An analysis of diversification was carried out, which included lineage-through-time (LTT) plots and the calculation of diversification rates for genera and major clades. Ancestral areas were reconstructed using a maximum likelihood approach that implements the dispersal–extinction–cladogenesis model. Results The LTT plots indicated a constant overall rate of diversification with low extinction rates for the family during the first 80 Ma of its existence. The highest diversification rates were inferred for several young genera such as Desmopsis, Uvariopsis and Unonopsis. A boreotropical migration route was supported over Indian rafting as the best fitting hypothesis to explain present-day distribution patterns within the family. *Correspondence: Thomas L. P. Couvreur, The New York Botanical Garden, 200th St and Kazimiroff Blvd, Bronx, NY 10458-5126, USA. E-mails: [email protected]; [email protected] 664 Main conclusions Early diversification within Annonaceae fits the hypothesis of a museum model of tropical diversification, with an overall steady increase in lineages possibly due to low extinction rates. The present-day distribution of species within the two largest clades of Annonaceae is the result of two contrasting biogeographic histories. The ‘long-branch clade’ has been diversifying since the beginning of the Cenozoic and underwent numerous geodispersals via the boreotropics and several more recent long-distance dispersal events. In contrast, the ‘short-branch clade’ dispersed once into Asia via the boreotropics during the Early Miocene and further dispersal was limited. Keywords Biogeographic hypothesis testing, boreotropical hypothesis, diversification rates, Indian rafting, K/Pg boundary, LTT plots, molecular dating, museum model. http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/jbi doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2010.02434.x ª 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd Evolutionary history of the Annonaceae INTRODUCTION Tropical rain forests cover c. 7% of all continental land surface and are the most biodiverse terrestrial ecosystems on the planet (Whitmore, 1998; Morley, 2000). The South American rain forests alone hold 30% of the world’s plant diversity (Smith et al., 2004). Rain forests are currently restricted to a belt spanning the equator in Southeast Asia, northern Australasia, Africa, South/Central America, India–Sri Lanka and some Pacific Islands. Plant families whose species are mainly restricted to rain forests are frequently distributed across all three continents, i.e. their distributions are disjunct, separated by large expanses of ocean. A number of hypotheses have been advanced to explain how such intercontinental disjunctions could have originated. These include vicariance resulting from the break up of the Gondwanan supercontinent (Raven & Axelrod, 1974), concerted migrations across land bridges (van Steenis, 1962; Thorne, 1972; Davis et al., 2002) during times when the climate was favourable (geodispersal), continental rafting (Conti et al., 2002), and long-distance dispersal (LDD) (Renner et al., 2001). Providing evidence for any of these hypotheses will give important insights into the evolutionary history of tropical rain forest ecosystems. Analyses of diversification through time on the basis of dated molecular phylogenies have been undertaken in several families within most major clades of angiosperms (asterids, basal eudicots, basal core eudicots, monocots and rosids). However, such studies are lacking within the early diverging Magnoliales (Angiosperm Phylogeny Group, 2009). Annonaceae are a large pantropical family of trees and lianas. Although this family (c. 2440 species; Table 1) is not as diverse in terms of species richness as some core angiosperm families (Rubiaceae, c. 13,000; Asteraceae, c. 25,000 species) it is the most diverse family within the Magnoliales (Keßler, 1993). The family contributes significantly to tree diversity in rain forests around the world (Gentry, 1993; Tchouto et al., 2006; Punyasena et al., 2008) and provides one of the best examples of tropical plant families for which abundance and species richness, and temperature and rainfall, respectively, are positively correlated (see Punyasena et al., 2008). This suggests that the evolution of Annonaceae may be informative on the historical development of tropical rain forests in general. Table 1 Total number of species and genera in Annonaceae and per major clade, and number (percentage) of these sampled for this study. Species Anaxagorea Ambavioids Long-branch clade Short-branch clade Total Genera Total Sampled Total Sampled 26 57 1631 726 2440 1 8 40 51 100 1 8 52 51 112 1 8 39 45 93 Journal of Biogeography 38, 664–680 ª 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd (3.8) (14) (2.5) (7.2) (4.8) (100) (100) (75) (88) (83) Molecular phylogenetic analyses within the family have identified two main sister clades containing the majority of species richness and initially characterized by their molecular attributes (Richardson et al., 2004): the long-branch clade (LBC) and the short-branch clade (SBC). On average, the LBC has twice the level of chloroplast sequence divergence compared with the SBC. In addition, the LBC contains more than twice the species richness when compared with the SBC (Table 1). Based on fossil data and past molecular date estimates within the family, intercontinental disjunctions between genera have been attributed mainly to boreotropical geodispersal during the Late Eocene (Doyle & Le Thomas, 1997; Richardson et al., 2004). In the light of new age estimates for major nodes within the family, geodispersal via Indian rafting (McKenna, 1973; Morley, 2000) was suggested as being an important factor in determining how this clade reached Southeast Asia (Su & Saunders, 2009). The goal of this study is to undertake a detailed analysis of the diversification and general biogeographic history of Annonaceae using DNA sequence data from nearly all genera in the family. It represents the most comprehensive study on diversification-rate patterns in the magnoliids so far. We tested models involving shifts in rates of diversification (as opposed to a more constant rate) and high versus low levels of extinction (the latter corresponding to the ‘museum’ model, in which low levels of extinction have been invoked to explain the richness of tropical biota). Molecular age estimates calibrated using the fossil record were used to discriminate between alternative biogeographic hypotheses: boreotropical geodispersal, LDD and Indian rafting. These explanations are tested explicitly within a maximum likelihood (ML) framework. MATERIALS AND METHODS Taxon and character sampling For this study, we selected all genera with sequence data available. Most genera were represented by one species, although for genera that have been shown to be polyphyletic (e.g. Polyalthia, Oxandra and Orophea; Mols et al., 2004), one species per known monophyletic group was sampled. In total, 100 ingroup taxa were included, representing 93 out of the 112 (Table 1) currently recognized genera (83%). In addition, four outgroup taxa were selected: Eupomatia bennettii (Eupomatiaceae are recovered as sister to Annonaceae; Qiu et al., 2000; Sauquet et al., 2003), Degeneria vitiensis (Degeneriaceae), Galbulimima belgraveana (Himantandraceae) and Magnolia kobus (Magnoliaceae). We adopted a supermatrix approach (de Queiroz & Gatesy, 2007), concatenating all available sequence data for the selected taxa (mostly sourced from our own published work; Mols et al., 2004; Richardson et al., 2004; Pirie et al., 2005, 2006; Scharaschkin & Doyle, 2006; Erkens et al., 2007, 2009; Couvreur et al., 2008a, 2009; Nakkuntod et al., 2009). Data from seven chloroplast markers were available: three coding (rbcL, matK and ndhF) and four non-coding (trnS–trnG, 665 T. L. P. Couvreur et al. trnL–trnF, psbA–trnH and atpB–rbcL). GenBank numbers are given in Appendix S1 in the Supporting Information. The total length of the aligned molecular data matrix was 8823 characters. Gaps were not coded as separate indel characters because binary characters could not be analysed under the combined phylogenetic inference and molecular dating approach (see below). In total, 47% of characters were missing (including gaps; Appendix S2), with 55 taxa having up to 50% of characters missing, and 49 with more than 50% of characters missing. Woodiellantha and Pseudephedranthus had the greatest proportion of missing characters with 83 and 80%, respectively. Sequences of rbcL and trnL–trnF were available for all taxa. In contrast, atpB–rbcL was available for only 40 taxa (Appendix S2). Taxa with a high proportion of missing characters can be included successfully in phylogenetic analyses (Wiens, 2003; Wiens & Moen, 2008), and the supermatrix approach is often used for family-wide phylogenies (Baker et al., 2009; Couvreur et al., 2010) as it allows the inclusion of data from disparate sources. Fossil calibration The present study used two fossils as minimum age constraints for two separate nodes (see Discussion). The first fossil was Endressinia (Mohr & Bernardes-de-Oliveira, 2004) from the Aptian of Brazil of c. 115 Ma (Gradstein et al., 2004). The phylogenetic positions of this and other relevant fossils were evaluated recently by Doyle & Endress (2010) by optimizing morphological characters over a molecular phylogeny of ‘basal’ angiosperms. Doyle & Endress (2010) showed that both Endressinia and the more recent Archaeanthus (100 Ma) (Dilcher & Crane, 1984) provide a minimum age for the crown node of Magnoliineae (the clade comprising Magnoliaceae, Degeneria, Galbulimima, Eupomatia and Annonaceae; Sauquet et al., 2003). Archaeanthus was widely used in previous molecular dating analyses of Annonaceae (Doyle et al., 2004; Richardson et al., 2004; Scharaschkin & Doyle, 2005; Pirie et al., 2006; Couvreur et al., 2008a; Erkens et al., 2009; Su & Saunders, 2009), thus the use of Endressinia results in a considerable increase in the minimum age for the Magnoliineae crown node (Doyle & Endress, 2010; Pirie & Doyle, in press). The second fossil, Futubanthus (Takahashi et al., 2008), found in Japan and dating from 89 Ma, was recognized as the earliest probable fossil of Annonaceae. Futabanthus exhibits characters, such as a trimerous perianth and numerous stamens and carpels, that are not unique in Magnoliineae but that, in combination with the small size of the stamens and their packing into a dome-like structure, may be synapomorphies with Annonaceae as a whole (Pirie & Doyle, in press). As it also lacks inner staminodes, a primitive character found in Anaxagorea (sister to the rest of Annonaceae), Eupomatia, Degeneria and Galbulimima, Futabanthus is associated with the crown rather than the stem node of the family (Takahashi et al., 2008; Su & Saunders, 2009; Pirie & Doyle, in press). Besides Futabanthus, no other fossils are currently known that are both unequivocally associated with 666 nodes within Annonaceae and of an age that is likely to further constrain the ages of those nodes (Pirie & Doyle, in press). To calibrate the molecular tree, we used the older of the two fossils (Endressinia), which is associated with the deepest node, effectively to fix the age of the Magnoliineae crown node (the root node in our analyses) using a uniform prior with minimal bounds (115.1–114.9 Ma). This means that, assuming the molecular method (see below) is accurate, all resulting ages reported here should be interpreted as minima. We applied the second, more recent fossil Futabanthus as a minimum constraint at the crown node of Annonaceae by applying an exponential prior distribution with a mean of 5 and a hard bound offset of 89 (the age of the fossil). The mean value allowed the tail of the distribution (soft bound) to reach 115 Ma (the fixed age of the root node), thus assuming that Annonaceae could have originated at any time between 115 and 89 Ma, but biased towards the younger age. Molecular dating Molecular dating was undertaken using the beast package (Drummond & Rambaut, 2007) version 1.5.3. Seven partitions were created, one for each marker, using BEAUti 1.5.3. The best performing evolutionary model for each partition was determined using the Akaike information criterion (AIC; Akaike, 1973) as implemented in MrModeltest (Nylander, 2004). The GTR+G model was selected for rbcL and ndhF, whereas the GTR model + gamma + invariant sites model was selected for the other five markers. The dataset was run separately using a strict clock model and an uncorrelated relaxed clock model (URC) assuming a lognormal distribution of rates. We used a Bayes Factor (BF) test as implemented in Tracer 1.5 (Rambaut & Drummond, 2003) to compare the two clock models statistically under the smoothed marginal likelihood estimate and with 100 bootstrap replicates (Suchard et al., 2001). The strict clock model was significantly rejected over the relaxed clock model. For each analysis, a total of 30 independent runs of 10 million generations, sampling every 1000th generation, were undertaken on the online cluster of the Computational Biology Service Unit from Cornell University (http://cbsuapps.tc.cornell.edu/beast.aspx). The starting tree for each independent run was derived from an ML tree found using RAxML (Stamatakis, 2006) and rendered ultrametric using the penalized likelihood method implemented in the program r8s (Sanderson, 2003). The RAxML analysis was performed using the web-server program version 7.0.4 (Stamatakis et al., 2008) available at the CIPRES portal in San Diego (http:// www.phylo.org). Tracer 1.5 was used to check for convergence of the model likelihood and parameters between each run. The resulting log files were combined (each independent run with the first 10% samples as burn-in) using LogCombiner 1.5.2 (Rambaut & Drummond, 2003). Results were considered reliable once the effective sampling size (ESS) for all parameters exceeded 200 (see Results for the total number of generations). For the tree files, we resampled from each run to Journal of Biogeography 38, 664–680 ª 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd Evolutionary history of the Annonaceae achieve a reduced sampling density of one in every 5000 generations. The maximum clade credibility topology with a posterior probability limit of 0.85 and mean branch lengths was then summarized from this sample using TreeAnnonator 1.5.2 (Rambaut & Drummond, 2003). Diversification analyses To provide an indication of net diversification rates within the family, we generated a semi-logarithmic lineage-through-time (LTT) plot of the resulting dated trees using the laser package version 2.2 (Rabosky, 2006). A mean LTT plot with 95% confidence intervals was computed from a collection of 1000 posterior trees sampled every 200,000 generations from the beast output file (which contained a total of 270,000,000 trees after burn-in). Our species-level sampling of the family is very incomplete, with 95.2% of all species missing (Table 1). However, our sampling strategy was not random and 83% of genera were represented, covering all the known major lineages of the family. This has important implications for the interpretations of the LTT plots: the older ends of the LTT plots should be accurate, as most of the missing taxa should be attached to the tree after the stem node of each genus. The missing genera are mostly monotypic, representing only a fraction of the total number of species (31). In order to test for a constant rate of diversification under incomplete taxon sampling, null models are generally constructed (Pybus & Harvey, 2000) where a number of phylogenies are generated to a true standing species richness of the group and then pruned randomly to the number of taxa sampled. We argue that this method is not appropriate in our case because of the non-randomness of our taxon sampling (phylogenetically informed sampling; Cusimano & Renner, 2010). Rather, changes in rates of diversification can be interpreted directly from the resulting LTT plot because, under this sampling strategy, the deeper nodes of the phylogeny are well represented. For that, we define a threshold up to which our LTT plot is considered accurate, that is, the point at which our LTT plot will not be significantly influenced by the sampling of extra tips (or species). This threshold is arbitrarily defined to include 85% of all genera stem nodes. This threshold was estimated for the whole family, the LBC and the SBC. In order to test the null hypothesis of no rate change (constant diversification) versus a variable-rate change in diversification, we used an ML approach implemented in the laser package version 2.2 (Rabosky, 2006). The test statistic for diversification rate-constancy is calculated as: DAICRC = AICRC ) AICRV, where AICRC is the AIC score for the best fitting rate-constant diversification model, and AICRV is the AIC for the best fitting variable-rate diversification model. Thus a negative value for DAICRV indicates that the data are best approximated by a rate-constancy model. For each clade (Annonaceae, LBC and SBC), we tested five different models, of which two are rate-constant and three are rate-variable: (1) the constant-rate birth model (the Yule process; Yule, 1924) Journal of Biogeography 38, 664–680 ª 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd with speciation (k) and extinction (l) set to zero; (2) the constant-rate birth–death model with two parameters, speciation (k) and extinction (l); (3) a pure birth rate-variable model where the speciation rate k1 shifts to rate k2 at time ts, with three parameters (k1, k2, ts); (4) an exponential density-dependent speciation rate ‘DDX’ model; and (5) a logistic density-dependent speciation rate ‘DDL’ model. The LTT plot derived from the maximum clade credibility tree was used for this part. In addition, we used the ‘truncateTree’ function to prune terminals of the LTT, corresponding to the nodes found after the threshold age set as explained in the previous paragraph. Absolute net diversification rates (speciation minus extinction) were calculated for all non-monotypic genera by using the stem age under a high level of extinction (b = 0.95) and no extinction (b = 0) following Magallón & Sanderson (2001). These rates were computed using the laser package version 2.2 (Rabosky, 2006). A standard boxplot was generated in order to identify 10th and 90th percentile outliers. Diversification rates calculated from stem and crown nodes (when available) of major clades in Annonaceae as well as for the family were compared with values for angiosperms as a whole and Magnoliales (relaxed values, obtained from Magallón & Castillo, 2009). Genera of uncertain taxonomic status were excluded from these analyses as their species richness estimation could be inaccurate (see Appendix S3). Maximum likelihood ancestral area reconstruction For this analysis, six taxa were pruned from the maximum clade credibility (MCC) tree in line with our generic level sampling (insofar as genera can be considered comparable) as they are known to be nested within broader generic circumscriptions: Enicosanthum fuscum, Friesodielsia sp., Haplostichanthus longirostris, Orophea creaghii, Polyalthia cf. longifolia and Pseudephedranthus fragrans. Seven areas were delimited based on distribution data of genera and continental divisions past and present: A, South America; B, North/Central America; C, Africa; D, Madagascar; E, India; F, Southeast Asia (west of Wallace’s Line); G, Southeast Asia (east of Wallace’s Line), Melanesia and northern Australia (Fig. 1). Distribution data, taken from different taxonomic sources (monographs and revisions), were used to assign each genus to one or more areas (Fig. 2; Appendix S1). When data were available, genera occurring in several areas were coded with the inferred ancestral distribution of the genus (see Fig. 2 for references to these studies) as recommended by Ronquist (1996). For example, Guatteria is distributed in South and Central America and Erkens et al. (2007) inferred that the ancestral distribution of this genus was located in Central America. Thus Guatteria was coded as operational unit B (Central/North American). Ancestral area reconstruction was performed using an ML method under the divergence–extinction–cladogenesis model (DEC; Ree et al., 2005; Ree & Smith, 2008) as implemented in 667 T. L. P. Couvreur et al. Model 0: Unconstrained A B A B C D E F G C 1 0-100 Myr D E F 1 0.01 0.01 1 0.01 0.01 1 1 1 G 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.01 1 B E F C A G D Model 1: Dispersal into India viable A A B C D E F G B 1 C 0.01 0.01 0-5 Myr D E 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.25 0.25 0.25 F 0.01 0.01 0.25 0.25 1 G 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 1 A A B C D E F G B 0.25 5-30 Myr C D E 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.5 0.25 0.25 F 0.01 0.01 0.25 0.25 1 G 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.75 F 0.01 0.01 0.25 0.25 0.01 G 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.75 A A B C D E F G B 0.01 30-45 Myr C D E 0.25 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.5 0.01 F 0.01 0.01 0.25 0.25 0.75 G 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.25 0.25 F 0.01 0.01 0.25 0.25 0.01 G 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.25 A A B C D E F G B 0.25 45-65 Myr C D E 0.5 0.01 0.01 0.75 0.01 0.01 0.5 0.01 0.01 F 0.01 0.75 0.25 0.25 0.25 G 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.25 0.01 F 0.01 0.75 0.25 0.25 0.01 G 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 A B 0.5 A B 0.5 A B C D E F G 65-100 Myr C D E 1 0.01 0.01 0.25 0.01 0.01 1 1 1 F 0.01 0.5 0.01 0.01 0.01 G 0.75 0.01 0.5 0.75 0.75 0.01 F 0.01 0.5 0.01 0.01 0.01 G 0.75 0.01 0.5 0.75 0.01 0.01 Model 2: Dispersal into India not viable A A B C D E F G B 1 C 0.01 0.01 0-5 Myr D E 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.25 0.25 0.25 F 0.01 0.01 0.25 0.25 1 G 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 1 A A B C D E F G B 0.25 5-30 Myr C D E 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.5 0.01 0.01 A A B C D E F G B 0.01 30-45 Myr C D E 0.25 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.5 0.01 0.01 A A B C D E F G B 0.25 45-65 Myr C D E 0.5 0.01 0.01 0.75 0.01 0.01 0.5 0.01 0.01 A B C D E F G 65-100 Myr C D E 1 0.01 0.01 0.25 0.01 0.01 1 0.01 0.01 Figure 1 Delimitation of the seven areas assigned to the genera included and parameters of the three alternative biogeographic models tested in this study. A, South America; B, Central/North America; C, Africa; D, Madagascar; E, Indian plate F, Mainland Asia/Sundaland/ west of Wallace’s Line; G, Sahul/Australia/Pacific/east of Wallace’s Line. Probabilities of dispersal: 0.01, none or low; 0.25, medium-low; 0.5, medium; 0.75, medium-high; 1, high. the software Lagrange build 20091004 (Ree & Smith, 2008). Python scripts were all generated using the online helper (http://www.reelab.net/lagrange). Ancestral areas were limited to two, under the assumption that past distributions were about as wide as current ones and to limit the complexity of the analysis. Given the low dispersal ability of extant Annonaceae, we assume that dispersal was possible only between adjacent areas (i.e. no dispersal allowed between areas A and D or E, and between B and D or E). Ancestral areas were estimated for five nodes relevant to this study (Fig. 2). The goodness of fit of the data to three alternative biogeographic models was evaluated in an ML framework: model 0 was unconstrained with dispersal events between all adjacent areas possible (probability = 1.0) during the whole period considered (100–0 Ma). For models 1 and 2, we incorporated prior information on range evolution as well as dispersal probabilities between areas given discrete periods of time. Both models were formulated based on past climatic data, tectonic history and postulated presence/absence of land bridges (Morley, 2000, 2003, 2007; Tiffney & Manchester, 2001; Zachos et al., 2001). Five time frames were delimited (Fig. 1) and dispersal probabilities were assigned between all adjacent areas. Dispersal probabilities were divided into five categories: low or no dispersal = 0.01; low dispersal = 0.25; medium dispersal = 0.5; high dispersal = 0.75; areas adjacent or very close = 1. For model 1, dispersal into India from the other areas coded was allowed and dispersal probabilities were assigned as shown in Fig. 1. Model 2 was identical to model 1, except that dispersal into India was not allowed from 100 to 5 Ma. We thus forced model 2 to represent the hypothesis that Annonaceae did not successfully raft with India and that India played no role in explaining present-day distribution patterns (see Discussion). Finally, we investigated the influence of the different number of categories of the dispersal probabilities on the outcome of the analysis. We did this by analysing the data under models 2 and 3 using just three probability categories (instead of five) set to 0.01, 0.5 and 1. Differences between models were assessed by directly comparing their respective log-likelihoods. Following Ree et al. (2005), we used the conventional cut-off value of two log-likelihood units to assess statistical significance of likelihood differences. RESULTS Phylogeny Weakly supported nodes (posterior probability, PP < 0.90) are indicated by arrows in Fig. 2 and are mainly concentrated in Figure 2 Maximum clade credibility tree of the Annonaceae with 95% highest probability density bars. Arrows indicate nodes with <0.9 posterior probability support. Numbers represent references to ancestral area coding for genera found in several areas. 1, Scharaschkin & Doyle (2005); 2, L.W. Chatrou, pers. comm.; 3, Erkens et al. (2007); 4, Zhou et al. (2009); 5, Couvreur et al. (2008a); 6, Su & Saunders (2009). Stars represent nodes used for calibrating the tree. Lower-case letters indicate nodes for which the ancestral areas were estimated (Table 3). Letters next to taxon names represent coding of areas. When no box is present, the taxon was deleted from the Lagrange analysis. 668 Journal of Biogeography 38, 664–680 ª 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd Evolutionary history of the Annonaceae d c b e a Lower Cretaceous 120 110 Upper Cretaceous 100 90 80 Journal of Biogeography 38, 664–680 ª 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd Palaeocene 70 60 Eocene 50 Oligocene 40 30 Miocene 20 E F F E G E E F E B B B B F B F E F E F E F F F F F C F A A A A A A A A A A A A A A F C C C C C F F C E C F C C D F C C C C C C C C C C C C C B F A F C C B C C A A C C A A A A C F D C A F F C C A G F G F G F G F G F F G G DF G F D DF G G C A Enicosanthum fuscum Polyalthia cf longifolia Polyalthia xanthopetala Neo uvaria paralellivenia Sageraea lanceolata Miliusa mollis Fitzalania heteropetala Meiogyne virgata Mitrephora alba Phaeanthus ebracteolatus Popowia hirta Tridimeris sp. Sapranthus viridiflorus Stenanona panamensis Desmopsis microcarpa Stelechocarpus burahol Guamia sp. Orophea creaghii Orophea kerrii Woodiellantha sp. Orophea celebica Platymitra macrocarpa Alphonsea kinabaluensis Marsypopetalum pallidum Pseuduvaria pamattonis [6] Haplostichanthus longirostris Polyalthia suberosa Trivalvaria macrophylla Polyalthia stuhlmannii Monocarpia euneura Klarobelia inundata Pseudephedranthus fragrans Oxandra espintana Pseudomalmea diclina Oxandra macrophylla Ephedranthus sp. Ruizodendron ovale Mosannona costaricensis Pseudoxandra lucida Cremastosperma brevipes Malmea dielsiana Bocageopsis canescens Onychopetalum periquino Unonopsis stipitata Maasia sumatrana Piptostigma mortehani Polyceratocarpus pellegrini Mwasumbia alba Greenwayodendron oliveri Annickia affinis Friesodielsia desmoides Desmos elegans Dasymaschalon macrocalyx Friesodielsia sp. Monanthotaxis whytei Melodorum fruticosum Sphaerocoryne gracilis Toussaintia orientalis Mitrella kentii Fissistigma glaucescens Uvaria lucida [4] Dielsiothamnus divaricatus Hexalobus salicifolius Uvariastrum insculptum Asteranthe asterias Monodora myristica Isolona campanulata [5] Uvariopsis vanderystii Monocyclanthus vegnei Uvariodendron molundense Mischogyne michelioides Sanrafaelia rufonammari Ophrypetalum odoratum Asimina triloba Disepalum platypetalum Annona muricata Goniothalamus griffithii Neostenanthera myristicifolia Anonidium manii Guatteria anomala [3] Pseudartabotrys letestui Letestudoxa bella Duguetia staudtii Fusaea peruviana Xylopia peruviana Artabotrys hexapetalus [2] Hornschuchia citriodora Trigynaea lanceipetala Cymbopetalum brasiliense Porcelia steinbachii Mkilua fragrans Mezzettia parviflora Ambavia gerrardii Cleistopholis glauca Tetrameranthus duckei Cananga odorata Cyathocalyx martabanicus Lettowianthus stellatus Meiocarpidium lepidotum Anaxagorea silvatica [1] Eupomatia bennettii Degeneria vitiensis Galbulimima belgraveana Magnolia kobus miliusoid clade Shortbranch clade South/Central American clade African SBC Uvaria clade African LBC Longbranch clade annonoid clade Duguetia clade Bocageeae Ambavioids Anaxagorea Outgroups PL P 10 0 669 T. L. P. Couvreur et al. Table 2 Differences in age (Ma) between recent Annonaceae family-wide molecular dating studies. Penalized likelihood method beast Age (Ma) (SD in parentheses) Mean age (95% HPD in parentheses) Clade Pirie & Doyle (in press) Su & Saunders (2009) This study Annonaceae stem age Annonaceae crown age Ambavioids/LBC/SBC crown Ambavioids crown age LBC/SBC crown LBC crown age SBC crown age SAC/miliusoid clade crown SAC crown age Miliusoid crown age 90.9 75.5 65.3 – 62.8 57.6 55.3 45.5 44.0 40.3 98.0 89.4 74.6 – 67.3 59.6 39.8 29.1 24.3 23.0 106.29 90.44 76.08 69.40 71.71 65.85 32.768 23.60 21.38 19.72 (1.6) (1.7) (1.9) (1.9) (2.1) (2.4) (2.9) (2.5) (3.4) (101.46–94.91) (90.41–89) (cal) (84.4–63.6) (78.1–55.2) (70.5–48.1) (55.1–26.8) (39.2–20.2) (37.7–15.7) (31.1–16) (110.37–102.02) (92.98–89) (cal) (82.5–69) (60.2–78) (78.26–64.77) (72.42–59.16) (40–25.8) (28.79–19.16) (26.09–16.85) (24.04–15.89) HPD, highest posterior density; SD, standard deviation; LBC, long-branch clade of Annonaceae; SBC, short-branch clade of Annonaceae; cal, node used for calibration. the SBC. In general, the topology and support values agree well with previous phylogenetic analyses (Mols et al., 2004; Richardson et al., 2004; Pirie et al., 2006; Couvreur et al., 2008b; Erkens et al., 2009; Su & Saunders, 2009). Molecular dating The maximum clade credibility tree is presented in Fig. 2. A total of 300 million generations (30 runs of 10 million generations each) were necessary to reach sufficient ESS. All parameters between independent runs were equal. For all runs, stationarity was achieved relatively quickly, within 100,000 generations, which was presumably the result of using a nearly optimal starting tree. In general, most parameters and age estimations reached ESS values >200, and all reached ESS values >150. The dataset was strongly non-clock-like according to a BF test (ln BF > 1000 in favour of relaxed clock analysis), thus only the results using the relaxed clock model are presented here. For all five partitions, the rate of covariance was centred on zero, which can be interpreted as a lack of evidence for rate autocorrelation among lineages (Peng et al., 2006; Drummond & Rambaut, 2007; Ho, 2009). The first 200 sampled trees of each run were treated as burn-in and deleted, and the remaining 16,000 in total were combined into a single file. Ages of major clades obtained for this study are given in Table 2. Diversification The thresholds for the LTT plots were calculated as 25 Ma for the whole family, 31 Ma for the long-branch clade and 16 Ma for the short-branch clade (Fig. 3). Following our assumptions, these dates represent the point in time before which our LTTs are assumed to depict a fairly accurate picture of diversification rates. Overall, the family level and LBC LTT plots were fairly linear. At the family and clade level (LBC and 670 SBC), the data better fitted a constant rate model of diversification with the diversification rate-constancy statistic DAICRV being )1.05 (Annonaceae), )1.0 (LBC) and )3.4 (SBC) when compared with the second-best model. In all three cases, the pure birth model was identified as having the lowest AIC value amongst the other models tested. The total number of genera analysed for the diversification rate was 75. Eight genera were outliers with higher rates (>90th percentile; Appendix S3; Fig. 4a) under no extinction (b = 0). When extinction was factored in, eight genera were outliers with higher rates (>90th percentile; Appendix S3; Fig. 4b). In addition, nine genera (under both b = 0 and b = 0.95) were outliers with lower rates (>10th percentile; Appendix S3; Fig. 4a). Diversification rates calculated for the stem and crown nodes within Annonaceae were more or less the same, except in the case of the SBC, where a significant difference was seen (Fig. 5, grey panel). The diversification rate of Annonaceae as a whole (Fig. 5) was higher than that of angiosperms and the Magnoliales (Magallón & Castillo, 2009). At the level of the major clades within the family, the LBC and SBC had the highest diversification rates (Fig. 5), while Anaxagorea and the ambavioids had the lowest. The SBC had a higher diversification rate when the crown node, as opposed to the stem node, was used for the calculation. Biogeographic reconstruction analyses All models returned similar ancestral areas for the five nodes (Table 3). Model 2, in which rafting with India was not allowed, returned a significantly better likelihood score compared with models 0 and 1. Lowering the number of probabilities to three had no major effects on the results under model 2 (Table 3), indicating that our choice of dispersal probability categories did not significantly influence the results. We coded widespread genera according to the ancestral areas inferred in previous studies, with a single exception: in Journal of Biogeography 38, 664–680 ª 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd Evolutionary history of the Annonaceae Ln number of lineages (a) 1000 Clade ages within Annonaceae 10 Ln number of lineages Ln number of lineages 100 80 60 40 20 0 long-branch clade 1000 100 10 1 80 (c) DISCUSSION 100 1 120 (b) Xylopia and, as the overall results for nodes focal to this study were otherwise unaffected (data not shown), we used this coding in all further analyses. Annonaceae 60 1000 40 20 0 20 0 short-branch clade 100 10 1 80 60 40 Millions of years ago (Ma) Figure 3 Semi-logarithmic lineage-through-time (LTT) plots within (a) Annonaceae, (b) long-branch and (c) short-branch clades. Triangles: mean LTT plot from 1000 posterior trees; solid lines represent 95% confidence limits. Squares on the right represent the extant number of taxa for each clade. The grey column in (a) represents the Cretaceous–Palaeogene boundary, that in (b, c) represents the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum event. Vertical bars represent threshold limit of LTT plots indicating where the plot is assumed to be accurate (not influenced by missing taxa). the absence of a detailed phylogeny, this was not possible for the large pantropical genus Xylopia. We thus undertook three analyses in order to test the impact of different plausible ancestral areas for Xylopia: Africa, South America and Southeast Asia. Of the three reconstructions, the best likelihood score was obtained with Africa as the ancestral area for Journal of Biogeography 38, 664–680 ª 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd In general, the minimum ages estimated here using the URC as implemented in beast are slightly older for deeper parts of the chronogram, and significantly younger for shallower parts of the chronogram, than those of Pirie & Doyle (in press), generated using the same calibrations but with the penalized likelihood method of Sanderson (2002), which assumes autocorrelation of rates (Table 2). The discrepancies between some previous estimates (Richardson et al., 2004; Pirie & Doyle, in press) and those presented here could be related to several different factors, such as taxon sampling density (Linder et al., 2005; Pirie et al., 2005), molecular marker sampling (Magallón & Sanderson, 2005), alternative dating methods (Drummond et al., 2006), and the use of different fossils as calibration points (in particular compared with studies of Doyle et al., 2004; Richardson et al., 2004; Pirie et al., 2006 that used the relatively recent fossil Archaeanthus). Su & Saunders (2009) also used the URC model with a comparable age calibration and recovered age estimations similar to those presented here (Table 2) despite having only approximately one-third of the taxon sampling included here. The molecular dating method may thus explain at least some of the inconsistencies, which should therefore be interpreted in terms of the fit of the underlying assumptions to the data (rate autocorrelation versus uncorrelated distribution of rates; Drummond et al., 2006). The URC model is more general: it neither assumes nor excludes rate autocorrelation, and in fact provides a means to test for autocorrelated rates as indicated by the posterior distribution of the covariance parameter (Drummond et al., 2006; although a possible bias against discovering rate autocorrelation in this manner has been suggested, e.g. Moore & Donoghue, 2007). As our results do not indicate significant rate autocorrelation in Annonaceae, we interpret the ages derived under the URC model as being more plausible. Annonaceae originated at least 110–102 Ma [95% highest posterior density (HPD), stem node] and started to diversify by c. 89 Ma. Our mean (minimum) estimates for the three major lineages are c. 69 Ma (crown node ambavioids), c. 66 Ma (crown node LBC) and c. 33 Ma (crown node SBC). Besides the major clades, the age estimations for stem nodes of genera reported here correspond closely with previous analyses under higher levels of infra-generic species sampling (Table 2). Diversification at family and generic levels The Cretaceous–Palaeogene (K/Pg) boundary mass extinction at 65 Ma had profound effects on marine biodiversity and 671 (a) 0.6 Diversification rates rate b=0 T. L. P. Couvreur et al. 0.5 Uvariopsis * Unonopsis * Desmopsis * Stenanona * 0.4 Sphaerocoryne * Desmos*, Friesodielsia* Monanthotaxis * 0.3 Pseuduvaria Uvaria Annona 0.2 Goniothalamus Guatteria Xylopia Duguetia 0.1 Anaxagorea Artabotrys 0 0 Diversification rates with b=0.95 (b) 20 0.16 40 60 80 100 Unonopsis * 0.14 * Monanthotaxis 0.12 Uvariopsis 0.1 0.08 * Uvaria * Desmopsis * Pseuduvaria* Desmos*, Friesodielsia* Fissistigma Stenanona Annona Dasymachalon Guatteria Goniothalamus 0.06 Xylopia Duguetia 0.04 Artabotrys 0.02 Anaxagorea 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Millions of years since origin 0.25 400 SBC 350 250 0.15 LBC 0.10 Annonaceae Magnoliales Anaxagorea b, Diversification rate 300 Angiosperms 200 150 Ambavioids 100 672 Stem Crown Stem Crown Stem Crown Stem Stem Crown Stem Crown Stem 0.00 Crown 50 0 Millions of years ago (Ma) 0.20 0.05 Figure 4 Diversification rates of genera as a function of time for (a) no extinction (b = 0) and (b) high extinction (b = 0.95). Circle size is proportional to species richness within each genus. Asterisks indicate genera for which diversification rates were identified as 90th percentile outliers. Figure 5 Diversification rates for several plant groups as a function of the estimated stem and crown nodes. Left axis, diversification rate: no extinction (b = 0; diamonds); high extinction (b = 0.95; squares). Right axis, mean age of stem and crown nodes in Ma (grey triangles). SBC, short-branch clade of Annonaceae; LBC, long-branch clade of Annonaceae. Journal of Biogeography 38, 664–680 ª 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd Journal of Biogeography 38, 664–680 ª 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 0.0039 0.0167 0.0186 0.01392 )196 )191 )187 )190 0 1 2 Five dispersal probabilities Three dispersal probabilities 0.001546 0.0017 0.0016 0.0020 Extinction [A|AC] 0.72 [A|C] 0.18 [A|AC] 0.6 [A|C] 0.24 [A|AC] 0.65 [A|C] 0.21 [A|C] 0.38 [A|AC] 0.21 [AC|C] 0.12 [C|C] 0.08 [A|A] 0.06 Crown Annonaceae [a] [C|AC] 0.41 [AC|C] 0.3 [C|C] 0.25 [C|AC] 0.37 [C|C] 0.37 [AC|C] 0.23 [C|AC] 0.4 [C|C] 0.31 [C|C] 0.64 [C|AC] 0.21 Crown LBC/SBC/ambavioid [b] [C|C] 0.54 [AC|C] 0.38 [C|C] 0.59 [AC|C] 0.31 [C|C] 0.55 [AC|C] 0.34 [C|C] 0.71 [C|AC] 0.11 Crown LBC/SBC [c] [C|F] 0.9 [C|F] 0.86 [C|F] 0.86 [C|A] 0.53 [C|F] 0.42 Crown SBC [d] [C|C] 0.56 [AC|C] 0.39 [C|C] 0.61 [AC|C] 0.33 [C|C] 0.59 [AC|C] 0.36 [C|C] 0.80 [AC|C] 0.14 Crown LBC [e] Model 0: unconstrained; model 1: dispersal into India possible; model 2: dispersal into India not allowed. Model 2 was further analysed using five and three dispersal probabilities (see text for details). Letters represent alternative ancestral area reconstructions that fall within two log-likelihood units of the optimal scenario. Following Fig. 2, the vertical bar separates the ancestral area reconstructed for the lower branch (left letter) from the one reconstructed for the upper branch (right letter) arising from the node. Single-area letters indicate an ancestor restricted to a single area; two-area letters indicate an ancestor restricted to two areas. Values represent the relative probability of that inference. Bold text represents the model with a significantly better likelihood when compared with the other models tested (more than two log-likelihoods better). ln L, log-likelihood of the tested model; LBC, long-branch clade of Annonaceae; SBC, short-branch clade of Annonaceae. Dispersal ln L Model Table 3 Maximum likelihood reconstruction for major nodes within Annonaceae under three different models of geographic range evolution. Evolutionary history of the Annonaceae 673 T. L. P. Couvreur et al. terrestrial animals, such as the extinction of non-avian dinosaurs. However, the effect of such a mass extinction on plant terrestrial ecosystems has been controversial (McElwain & Punyasena, 2007). Some authors argue that, in comparison with animals or marine ecosystems, plant communities were little affected by such drastic events (Traverse, 1988). Other authors indicate, mainly based on the plant fossil record, that the K/Pg boundary resulted in massive extinction of land plants (Wolfe & Upchurch, 1986; Wilf & Johnson, 2004; Nichols & Johnson, 2008). One major difference noted for plants is that, even though species extinction could have been relatively high, it did not eradicate entire genera or families (McElwain & Punyasena, 2007; Nichols & Johnson, 2008). In our analysis of diversification through time in Annonaceae, the LTT plot reveals a brief pause in diversification (gap) after the K/Pg mass extinction (Fig. 3a). However, after a mass extinction event, LTT plots should reveal a clear anti-sigmoid curve (Harvey et al., 1994; Crisp & Cook, 2009), which is not observed here. Thus our data do not indicate that Annonaceae diversification was severely affected by the events of the K/Pg boundary. It could be that tropical rain forests proved more resilient to such drastic changes, despite the fact that some studies suggested that evergreen taxa were more affected than deciduous taxa during those times (Wolfe & Upchurch, 1986; McElwain & Punyasena, 2007). Our results, however, pertain to the origination of major lineages, and the effects of the K/Pg boundary at the specific level would have to be investigated more closely using the fossil record. Unfortunately, studies of fossil flora diversity in tropical regions across the K/Pg boundary are rare, being more centred in North America (McElwain & Punyasena, 2007; Nichols & Johnson, 2008). The overall shapes of the LTT plots for the whole family, the LBC and the SBC are otherwise fairly linear (Fig. 3). Such patterns are generally associated with a constant rate of diversification (Nee et al., 1994; Nee, 2006; Ricklefs, 2007). This was confirmed by the test statistic for diversification rateconstancy (DAICRC), which was negative at the family and clade (LBC and SBC) levels. Thus the overall picture indicates no major shifts of diversification throughout the family’s evolutionary history (at least up to 25 Ma). Interestingly, equivalent family or higher-order level LTT plots within different plant groups do not show an early diversification scenario consistent with a constant diversification rate. Diversification analyses within clades such as Burmanniaceae (Merckx et al., 2008), Brassicaceae (Couvreur et al., 2010), Proteaceae (Sauquet et al., 2009) and the rosid clade (Wang et al., 2009) all indicate an early and rapid increase in diversification followed by a decrease. In addition, the order Malpighiales was shown to have undergone a rapid increase in diversification shortly after its origin c. 114 Ma (Davis et al., 2005). Such a contrast could be the result of several factors, possibly linked to the strictly tropical ecology of Annonaceae. One hypothesis advanced to explain high levels of diversity in tropical ecosystems is the ‘museum model’, whereby lineages accumulated steadily through time due to low background extinction (Stebbins, 1974). This pattern is supported by the 674 fact that the diversification model that best fitted our data was the pure birth model, where the speciation rate is constant and the extinction rate is fixed to 0. Such a pattern was also recorded for the liverwort family Lejeuneaceae (Wilson et al., 2007), although this family had representatives in more temperate as well as tropical climates. More data should be gathered from other plant families with similar tropical distributions to confirm this. Finally, despite a common origin, it is apparent in Fig. 2 that diversification within the LBC and SBC started at significantly different times. Based on crown node ages, present-day species richness within the SBC appears to be the result of higher diversification rates when compared with the LBC, although diversification rates are similar when the stem node is used (Fig. 5). As we indicated above, the estimation of the minimum stem node age of genera is reliable across the family, even in the absence of dense taxon sampling within each genus. Thus diversification rates taken from stem node ages should not be sensitive to taxon undersampling within genera. Under a zero extinction model, the seven largest genera of Annonaceae (>95 species: Annona, Artabotrys, Duguetia, Goniothalamus, Guatteria, Uvaria, Xylopia) do not have the highest diversification rates within the family (Fig. 4; Appendix S3). This was also the case under a high extinction-rate model, with the exception of Uvaria, for which the rate estimation increased considerably (Fig. 4; Appendix S3). The largest genus associated with the highest levels of diversification with or without extinction was the African liana genus Monanthotaxis (Fig. 4a; Appendix S3), with c. 86 species. The highest diversification rates were instead identified in smaller genera with stem nodes younger than 8 Ma (Fig. 4; Appendix S3). The four fastest-diversifying genera under no extinction are Uvariopsis, Unonopsis, Desmopsis and Stenanona (Fig. 4; Appendix S3), representing 17, 48, 18 and 13 described species, respectively. Net diversification of a clade is a function between species and the age of that clade (Magallón & Sanderson, 2001), and in Annonaceae the larger genera are not associated with the highest diversification rates (large circles concentrated to the right in Fig. 4). Such a pattern was also found at the angiosperm level (Magallón & Sanderson, 2001). Diversification rates of these large genera could, however, be underestimated because they were calculated using stem ages. If their crown ages are estimated to be young, this would lead to higher diversification rates (Magallón & Castillo, 2009). For example, Linder (2008) regarded Guatteria as a recent and rapid radiation (in which recent speciation overwhelmed extinction) based on its age and species richness. In a well sampled species-level molecular phylogeny of the genus, the crown node age was estimated to be 11.4 (±1.4) Ma (Erkens et al., 2007). This would provide a diversification rate of 0.44 under no extinction, placing it amongst the fastest-diversifying genera in Annonaceae (Appendix S3; Fig. 4). Goniothalamus, a Southeast Asian genus with c. 150 species (Nakkuntod et al., 2009), was found to have the most significant rate increase along its stem branch (Erkens, 2007). Based on very restricted sampling of species Journal of Biogeography 38, 664–680 ª 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd Evolutionary history of the Annonaceae within the genus, the crown node was estimated to be fairly young, varying from 4.8 to 3.6 Ma (three species sampled; Richardson et al., 2004) to c. 10 Ma (two species sampled; Su & Saunders, 2009). This could indicate a rapid radiation within Goniothalamus, which we would fail to identify here on the basis of its stem node age alone. Further sampling of taxa is likely to identify more distantly related species, thus increasing the estimated age of the crown node of Goniothalamus. A dated species-level phylogeny is necessary to reconstruct the diversification history of the family during more recent times and beyond our arbitrary threshold. Many geological events have occurred from the Miocene (23 Ma) onwards that could have influenced diversification rates within the family, including major uplifts of the Andes, the New Guinea highlands and the East African rift system; the collision of Sundanian and Papuasian shelves around Wallace’s Line; and closure of the Isthmus of Panama and the Tethys Sea. The combination of these events could have had a profound impact on rates of diversification and extinction in the tropics along with all other parts of the world. For example, diversification in the genus Inga (Fabaceae), which comprises c. 350 species, has been shown to have been concentrated within the past 10 Myr (Richardson et al., 2001), over a similar period to that of Guatteria (if not younger). Substantial diversification of tropical plant lineages has therefore taken place during comparatively recent times and could have been caused by some of the events discussed above. Modern tropical species diversity therefore seems to be the result of gradual accumulation of lineages through time, as suggested by the ‘museum hypothesis’ coupled with rapid and comparatively recent diversification in a few lineages. Similar patterns are evident in studies of tropical lineages of leaf beetles (McKenna & Farrell, 2006). Origins and diversification of the long- and short-branch clades Both the LBC and SBC are inferred to have an African ancestral area. However, our results reveal that these lineages have different patterns of diversification in both space and time (Fig. 2; Fig. 3b,c). During the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), numerous speciation events leading to extant taxa are observed within the LBC, whereas for the SBC there is a period of apparent stasis (Fig. 2). Speciation in the SBC is concentrated at more recent nodes of the miliusoid and Neotropical clades (c. 30 Ma), as is apparent in the SBC LTT plot (Fig. 3c). The SBC has more geographic structure than the LBC. In the former we have four major clades confined to specific regions: the African short-branch clade (Couvreur et al., 2009) restricted to Africa; the South/Central American clade (SAC) restricted to the Neotropics (Pirie et al., 2006); the miliusoid clade restricted mainly to Southeast Asia (Mols et al., 2004); and the weakly supported Central American clade (which also includes the Southeast Asian genus Stelechocarpus) nested within the miliusoid clade. Finally, the genus Maasia is restricted to Asia (Mols et al., 2008). The spatial and temporal Journal of Biogeography 38, 664–680 ª 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd differences between the LBC and SBC could reflect alternative diversification responses to the overall change in ecology and climate that affected rain forest taxa during the Cenozoic. Disjunct distributions between the tropics of South America, Africa and Southeast Asia of clades younger than Gondwanan break-up are currently often assumed to be the result of a migration through Laurasia during the EECO, when climatic conditions supported tropical vegetation at those latitudes (Wolfe, 1975; Lavin & Luckow, 1993). Indeed, the connections and climatic conditions at that time would have facilitated migration between the tropical floras of Africa, Indochina and North America. Molecular dating analyses, for example in Malpighiaceae (Davis et al., 2002), Meliaceae (Muellner et al., 2006), Melastomataceae s. str. (Renner et al., 2001) and Rubiaceae (Antonelli et al., 2009), all indicate that these families have tropical disjunctions with lineages splitting up at a time consistent with the disruption of boreotropical ranges around the Eocene–Oligocene boundary. Such a scenario appears to fit well with the patterns and tempo of diversification found in the LBC (e.g. Erkens et al., 2009), where numerous splitting events occurred during the EECO as well as from 45 Ma until 32 Ma when global temperatures were dropping (Zachos et al., 2001). Such widespread distribution of tropical rain forests in northern latitudes would have allowed migration of lineages amongst Southeast Asia, the New World and Africa, resulting in a lack of strong geographic clustering within the LBC. Most of the intercontinental splits found in the LBC are estimated to have originated during the Eocene (Fig. 2). Based on a prior age estimation of c. 62–53 Ma for the crown node of the SBC (Richardson et al., 2004), it was suggested that distribution patterns within this clade also resulted from boreotropical geodispersal (Richardson et al., 2004; Pirie et al., 2006). Such claims could be supported by the presence of seeds with typical SBC-type spiniform ruminations in the London Clay, at 50 Ma (Reid & Chandler, 1933; Doyle et al., 2004), but the dates recovered here for the crown node of the SBC (32.8 Ma, 95% HPD 40.1–26.1) are more recent. This may suggest that these seeds represent stem SBC lineages, rather than the crown group, and that they are therefore not the direct ancestors of taxa that subsequently dispersed out of Africa. An alternative explanation, suggested by Su & Saunders (2009), is that the SBC dispersed ‘out of India’ into Southeast Asia (McKenna, 1973; Morley, 2000). The out-of-India hypothesis suggests that plants inhabiting the Deccan plate (India) prior to its separation from Gondwana ‘rafted’ across the Indian Ocean during the Cretaceous and then dispersed into the newly contiguous landmass of Southeast Asia when the plates collided. Corroborative evidence has been inferred from frogs (Bossuyt & Milinkovitch, 2001) and plant families such as Crypteroniaceae (Conti et al., 2002; Rutschmann et al., 2004), Dipterocarpaceae (Morley, 2003), Melastomataceae (Morley & Dick, 2003), and Lowiaceae (Kress & Specht, 2006). Evidence potentially supporting this hypothesis with regard to the SBC includes putative Annonaceae fossils found in the Maastrichtian of India (Bonde, 1993), indicating the presence of the family in India before its collision with Asia; and the estimated 675 T. L. P. Couvreur et al. timing of dispersal of the SBC into Southeast Asia (30–19 Ma; Fig. 2), which post-dates the collision of the Indian plate with the Asian continent c. 35 Ma (Ali & Aitchison, 2008). The results of the ML analysis provide significant support for the boreotropical dispersal route over the Indian rafting route. Our model 2, in which India played no role in explaining the present-day distribution of Annonaceae species, fitted the data significantly better than the two other models (M0 and M1), being 4 and 9 log units better, respectively (Table 3). Thus, given the phylogeny and the biogeographic models used here, the boreotropics would have been the main dispersal route of the SBC into Southeast Asia. The fossil taxon found in India during the Maastrichtian could represent a lineage that subsequently went extinct during the rapid movement of India across the Indian Ocean (see below); and because its rumination is lamelliform, rather than the spiniform type restricted to the SBC, it might even represent a different lineage altogether. The split between the African short-branch clade and the rest of the SBC, estimated at 32 Ma, could be explained by the drastic Oligocene global temperature drop, which affected rain forest vegetation worldwide (Morley, 2000; Zachos et al., 2001), effectively breaking up any direct tropical rain forest connection between Africa and Southeast Asia (via Europe). However, during the Late Miocene, changes towards more seasonal climates led to the disappearance of rain forests across much of India, restricting them to western parts of the country and Sri Lanka (Morley, 2000). These changes potentially could have led to numerous extinctions, ultimately weakening the signal in the data (India contains no endemic Annonaceae genera today). Future support for either hypothesis should come from a comparative approach comparing several species-level dated molecular phylogenies of genera in both Southeast Asia and India. Under a boreotropical hypothesis, we would expect most Indian species to be nested within the Southeast Asian ones, whereas under the Indian rafting hypothesis, we would expect the Southeast Asian species to be nested within Indian lineages. The LBC and SBC thus provide contrasting evolutionary scenarios. The LBC diversified from the Early Palaeogene and migrated by geodispersal from Africa through the boreotropics into other major tropical regions, resulting in lower geographic clustering. 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Systematics and Biodiversity, 7, 249–258. SUPPORTING INFORMATION Additional Supporting Information may be found in the online version of this article: Appendix S1 GenBank numbers and area coding for all taxa included in the Lagrange analysis. Appendix S2 Number of missing characters per taxon, per marker and in total. Appendix S3 Diversification rates under no extinction (b = 0) and high extinction (b = 0.95). As a service to our authors and readers, this journal provides supporting information supplied by the authors. Such materials are peer-reviewed and may be reorganized for online delivery, but are not copy-edited or typeset. Technical support issues arising from supporting information (other than missing files) should be addressed to the authors. 679 T. L. P. Couvreur et al. BIOSKETCH Thomas Couvreur completed his doctorate under the auspices of the National Herbarium of the Netherlands in 2008, working on systematics and biogeography of African Annonaceae, and is currently a postdoctoral researcher at the New York Botanical Garden. In December 2010 he will start as a researcher at the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) in Montpellier, France. His main research interests focus on evolution, biogeography and systematics of tropical plant families, mainly Annonaceae and palms. The main research interest of the authors is centred on the systematics, evolution and biogeography of flowering plants, mainly of tropical lineages. Author contributions: T.L.P.C., R.H.J.E. and M.D.P. conceived the ideas; T.L.P.C., R.H.J.E., M.D.P., R.M.K.S., Y.C.F.S and L.W.C. contributed data; T.L.P.C. collected and analysed the data; T.L.P.C., R.H.J.E., J.E.R. and M.D.P. led the writing; all authors made significant comments on and improvements to the manuscript. Editor: Pauline Ladiges 680 Journal of Biogeography 38, 664–680 ª 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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