Name of Model: Demographic Transition Model
Area of Use: Population
Person who developed the model/ theory: (short bio) Warren Thompson
American geographer, Warren Thompson, developed this model in 1929 in NYC in
the midst of the stock market crash and onset of the Depression.
Premise: (What it is supposed to explain)
The Demographic Transition model explains the transformation of countries from having
high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates using a process of four stages (now
five). [the evolution of FERTILITY and MORALITY over time]
Function: (how it is used)
It is used to understand population policies and changes in developed and less developed
countries around the world over time.
Strengths:
Easy to apply to all countries even though rates vary due to cultural and economic conditions.
Models available for all the countries of the world, although there is much variety in the way in
which it applies.
Weaknesses:
Does not provide guidelines for how long it takes for a country to get from Stage 1 to Stage 3; has
attracted criticism as a general model, doubt about the model’s validity and applicability;
oversimplification
Effectiveness in field in past and today:
In the past, developed countries began transitioning in the 18th century and continue today. Today
the less developed countries began later and are still in the midst of earlier stages. Western
European countries took centuries while rapidly developing countries (ie Asian Tigers) are
transforming in decades.
Population Pyramids - a way of looking at the demographics of a country. Pop. Pyramids
disaggregate the population by gender and age (5 year cohorts). Illustrated as bar graphs of the
number of males and females in each age cohort
Dependency Ratio – the number of young and elderly in a population that are dependent
on the populations workers for support (see connection to population pyramids)
Pro-Natalist v. Anti-Natalist - pro-natalist polices encourage higher birth rates, anti-natalist
policies attempt to restrict birth rates and population growth
- See presentation here
Agricultural Density - the number of farmers per arable acre of land
Malthus / Neo-Malthusians : feared that food production capacity was linear while population
growth was exponential…. Didn’t factor for trade (anti-foreign bia), new technologies,
decrease in desire for large families as people became more urbanized
- Neo’s – fear that modern man is stripping the planet of important resources
which is caused by rapid population growth and industrialization.
LDCs / MDCs - Less Developed v. More Developed countries (different stages of the
demographic transition model)
Ecumene - term used by geographers to mean inhabited land. It generally refers to land where
people have made their permanent home, and to all work areas that are considered occupied and
used for agricultural or any other economic purpose.