ленных работников над численностью принятых на работу; усиливается внутриреспубликанская
мобильность населения, при этом преобладающим направлением миграции является переток населения из сельской местности в городскую; высоким сохраняется уровень вынужденной неполной
занятости, особенно в отраслях промышленности.
Список использованных источников:
1. Занятость населения и безработица в 2014 году [Электронный ресурс] – Режим доступа:
http://belstat.gov.by/bgd/public_bulletin/index_593//Дата доступа: 28.02.2016.
2. Ситуация в сфере занятости и безработицы в Республике Беларусь [Электронный ресурс] – Режим доступа: http://mintrud.gov.by/activity/ sostojanie// Дата доступа: 28.02.2016.
УДК 338.517:330.43
MEASURING STATISTICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OIL PRICE
AND RUSSIAN RUBLE EXCHANGE RATE
A. Bykau, Abbas Ghodsi, Hamid Nezhadhossein
Belarus State Economic University, [email protected]
П
ол
ес
ГУ
Will Russian economy be adapted to lower oil prices, and, if so, in what way? Now Russia applying
market self–regulation tools for adaptation to the new external conditions. As an example, Central Banks
of Russia has switched from the dual currency soft peg to the floating exchange rate in November 2014.
Earlier Russian currency was pegged to dual–currency basket with US dollar and Euro, and the Central
bank propped up the ruble when the exchange rate against these currencies exceeded its boundaries.
Floating exchange rate as a kind of monetary policy allows the Central bank to don’t spend reserves
for maintaining the desired exchange rate of ruble, which is adjusted only on the basis of market supply
and demand. In turn, the supply and demand for foreign currency derives from the changes in the balance
of payments. Market self–regulation reduces the exchange rate of ruble after decrease in exports. That
consequently leads to reduction of imports. Thus, the floating exchange rate prevents possible trade and
budget imbalances in the period of drastic decline in exports. Use of this kind of monetary policy allowed
softening the negative effect of lowering oil prices on the Russian economy.
In the first half of 2014, 68 per cent of commodity exports of Russian Federation were energy
resources, including crude oil (32 per cent), petroleum products (23 per cent) and natural gas (13 per
cent). In the first half of 2015 exports of energy goods, valued in dollars, fell by 37 per cent, including
crude oil – by 41 per cent. Decline in export prices had the main impact on exports decrease, while export
volumes increased by 6 per cent. Non–energy exports decreased by 13 per cent, but the share of non–
energy goods increased from 32 to 40 per cent of total commodity exports. The trade balance of services
reduced from –10 per cent of commodity exports in the first half of 2014 to –7 per cent in the first half of
2015 [1].
Such a drastic decline in exports could be dramatic for the economy if the Central bank applied
pegged exchange–rate regime. In fact, Russian foreign trade surplus has not changed significantly due to
reduction of commodity imports by 39 per cent. This was happened because real incomes of all sectors of
economy were reduced proportionally to drop of exchange rate of ruble, and imports became more
expensive compared with domestic goods and services.
The switch to the floating exchange rate made the Russian economy more predictable relatively to its
response to the oil price changes. Is there correlation between the oil price and exchange rate of ruble to
US dollar?
Russian professor K. Korischenko proposed a simple model: the equilibrium price of oil in 3050
rubles per barrel equals oil price, in USD/Barrel, multiplied by ruble exchange rate, in RUB/USD [2].
Indeed, the predicted oil price of 3050 rubles per barrel is close to the average for the last 5 years.
However, detailed analysis identifies certain changes in the ruble price of oil. From the beginning of 2011
to November 2014 there was no correlation between the oil price in US dollars and the ruble to US dollar
exchange rate. From November 2014, when the Central bank switched to the floating exchange rate, to
January 2016, statistical dependence between these parameters proved to be quite close (See Figure). The
dependence of ruble exchange rate (PER) on the price of oil (OP) can be described by a power function:
17
PER  656, 79 OP
0,6125
0,001
0,001
,
R 2  0,80,
(1)
DW  1, 75
where PER – predicted exchange rate of ruble, RUB/USD;
OP – oil prices, USD/Barrel.
170
4000
Predicted exchange rate
(PER), RUB/USD
3500
Oil price, RUB/Barrel
3000
130
2500
110
2000
90
1500
У
Exchange rate, RUB/USD
150
70
1000
50
30
0
10
20
30
сГ
500
40
50
60
70
0
80
Oil price, USD/Barrel
Actual exchange rate, RUB/USD (left scale)
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Actual oil price, RUB/barrel (right scale)
Predicted oil price, RUB/barrel (right scale)
Figure – Statistical dependence between oil price in US dollars and Ruble to US dollar exchange rate in
the period from November 2014 to January 2016.
Source: built by authors using data from [3] and [4].
П
According to the received power regression model, the oil price below 10–15 USD per barrel could be
critical for the Russian economy and trigger hyperinflation. Full costs of oil production including taxes
for Russian companies vary from 10 to 35 USD per barrel [5] but they can be reduced with the
depreciation of ruble against US dollar. It is also noteworthy that the power index in the given model (–
0.6125) approximately corresponds to the share of energy exports in total commodity exports and reflects
oil price elasticity of the exchange rate of ruble to US dollar.
Comparison of the predicted values of ruble exchange rate to the actual values in January 2016
showed the high accuracy of the model. But the given model is static, like any other regression model. In
the dynamics, the balance of payments always changes after the change in the structure of exports. The
share of energy exports in total merchandise exports declining due to lower oil prices and higher US
dollar to Ruble exchange rate. This reduces the absolute value of the elasticity coefficient, which initially
equals –0.6125. The ruble exchange rate becomes less sensitive to decrease in oil prices; therefore at a
lower oil price forecasts of the exchange rate are overpriced.
On the other hand, the influence of endogenous factors on the exchange rate of Ruble increases with
the rapid decline of oil price. The risk of panic in the market becomes significant and can lead to a sharp
depreciation of Ruble against US dollar. In this case, there is a possibility of the Central bank’s switch
back to pegged exchange–rate regime.
The growth of ruble price of exported oil has a positive effect on profits of mining companies, as the
gap between their dollar revenues and ruble costs increases. Growing profits can then be reinvested to
output extension so the overall increase in the ruble price of oil contributes to the expansion of the mining
sector of Russian economy. The decline in ruble oil prices reduces profits of mining companies, declining
their investments and adversely affecting the mining sector. However, lower oil price evaluated in rubles
means reduction of fossil fuels in Russia’s total exports and GDP.
18
сГ
У
The decline of Russia's GDP in 2015 was 3.6 per cent, and it is too early to say that the peak of the
crisis passed. Flexible monetary policy of the Central bank is necessary but clearly not sufficient
condition to overcome the crisis and resume economic growth. Russian economy needs to develop non–
energy sectors that produce various goods and services. The main objective for the nearest future is
transition from resource–based to technology–based model of economic development.
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References:
П
1. “Платежный баланс, международная инвестиционная позиция и внешний долг Российской Федерации.
Январь – Июнь 2015. – М: ЦБР, 2015”: с 6, 32. http://www.cbr.ru/statistics/credit_statistics/bp.pdf.
2.
“Цена
барреля
нефти
–
3050
рублей”
//
Парламентская
газета,
16.09.2015.
http://www.pnp.ru/news/detail/97699 16 сентября 2015
3.
База
данных
Центрального
банка
России.
05.01.2016,
http://www.cbr.ru/currency_base/dynamics.aspx?VAL_NM_RQ=R01235&date_req1=23.12.2010&date_req2=1.01.
2016&rt=1&mode=1.
4. “Crude Oil Historical Data”, accessed January 5, 2015, http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude–oil–
historical–data
5. Дзядко Т., Подобедова Л. “Конец изобилия: будет ли расти добыча нефти в России в 2016?” –
08.01.2016, http://www.rbc.ru/business/08/01/2016/56796d749a7947023b992b1c
УДК 330.341.44
ИНТЕГРАЦИЯ МАЛЫХ И СРЕДНИХ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЙ КАК ФАКТОР
УСТОЙЧИВОГО РАЗВИТИЯ ЭКОНОМИКИ
В.В. Быстренко
Белорусский государственный университет, [email protected]
Достижение основной цели программы социально–экономического развития Республики Беларусь – роста благосостояния и улучшения условий жизни населения на основе совершенствования
социально–экономических отношений, инновационного развития и повышения конкурентоспособности национальной экономики – осуществляется посредством реализации приоритетных
направлений развития социально–экономической среды нашей страны, в числе которых:
 радикальная модернизация всех секторов экономики, создание новых наукоемких и высокотехнологичных производств;
 стимулирование предпринимательства и деловой инициативы;
 устойчивое развитие регионов;
 развитие импортозамещающих производств;
Помимо этого точкой роста выбрано динамичное развитие малого и среднего предпринимательства, обеспечение их свободного доступа к кредитно–финансовым, материально–
техническим, земельным ресурсам и недвижимости, рост инвестиционной деятельности, сокращение административных барьеров для привлечения иностранных инвестиций.
Учитывая тот факт, что малое предпринимательство рассматривается как точка роста в социально–экономическом развитии, в рамках мер институционального регулирования нам необходимо сориентировать субъектов МСП в том числе и на инновационную деятельность. Помимо этого
нельзя недооценивать колоссальный инновационный потенциал малых предприятий, связанный с
их адаптивностью, мобильностью, а также расширению их доступа к современным технологиям в
связи с общемировыми тенденциями.
Для более точного определения комплекса мер по институциональной поддержке такого рода
субъектов необходимо четко осознавать текущую ситуацию в рамках интересующего нас направления. Для определения степени вовлеченности малых предприятий в инновационные процессы
обратимся к основному экономическому результату такой деятельности, а именно к объему отгруженной инновационной продукции и доле субъектов МСП в этом объеме. В приведенной таблице содержатся данные из ежегодного статистического сборника «Малое и среднее предпринимательство в Республике Беларусь», выпущенного в 2013 году. Обрабатывающая промышленность выбрана в данной таблице не случайно, поскольку на нее в 2012 году приходилось почти
99,5% отгруженной предприятиями промышленности инновационной продукции.
19