Supplementary material Fig. S1
Information content of contact-pattern representations and predictability of epidemic outbreaks
Petter Holme
TEMPORAL NETWORKS
1
1
0.25
A Conference
0.1
0.1
0.001
0.01
0.1
0.01
0.1
D Prostitution
0.001
0
0.1
1
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.01
0.3
0
0.01
Transmission probability
0.1
1
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.01
0.3
0.2
F School
0.1
0.001
0.7
0.1
0.2
E Reality
1
0.9
0.5
0.001
1
0.9
0.7
0.1
0.05
0.1
1
1
Disease duration
0.15
Disease duration
0.2
Final fraction of R
Disease duration
0.1
Transmission probability
0.01
Transmission probability
0.3
0.25
0.1
0
0.001
1
1
0.35
0.2
C Hospital
Final fraction of R
1
0.01
0.3
Transmission probability
Transmission probability
0.001
0.4
0.01
0.001
0
0.001
1
0.6
0.5
0.05
B Gallery
0.1
0
0.01
0.01
0.2
0.001
0.001
0.15
0.7
0.1
Final fraction of R
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.001
0.001
0
0.01
Transmission probability
0.1
1
Final fraction of R
0.4
0.01
0.1
0.8
Disease duration
0.5
Disease duration
0.6
Final fraction of R
Disease duration
0.8
0.7
1
0.9
0.9
0.1
1
0.3
Final fraction of R
1
STATIC NETWORKS
0.5
0.4
0.01
0.2
0
0.001
1
0
0.001
0.01
Transmission probability
0.1
0.01
0.1
D Prostitution
0
0.1
0
0.001
0.01
1
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.01
0.3
E Reality
Transmission probability
0.1
1
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.01
0.3
0.2
F School
0.1
0
0.7
0.1
0.2
0.001
1
0.8
0.7
0.01
1
0.9
0.5
0.001
0.1
1
1
0.1
0.05
0.001
Transmission probability
Disease duration
0.15
Final fraction of R
Disease duration
0.2
0.1
Transmission probability
0.25
0.1
0.2
0.001
1
1
0.3
0.01
0.3
Transmission probability
1
0.001
0.4
0.01
C Hospital
Final fraction of R
0.1
0.6
0.5
0.1
Disease duration
0.01
0.2
B Gallery
0.1
0.001
0.3
0.7
0.1
Final fraction of R
0.3
0.6
0.1
0.001
0.001
0
0.01
Transmission probability
0.1
1
Final fraction of R
0.4
0.1
Final fraction of R
0.8
Disease duration
0.7
Final fraction of R
Disease duration
0.9
0.8
0.5
A Conference
1
0.8
0.6
0.01
1
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.1
0.001
1
1
Disease duration
1
FULLY MIXED
0.5
0.2
0
0.1
0.01
Transmission probability
0.1
0.001
0
0.1
1
0.8
0.4
0.01
0.3
0
Transmission probability
0.1
1
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.01
0.3
0.2
F School
0.1
0.001
0.7
0.1
0.2
E Reality
1
0.9
0.6
0.01
1
0.8
0.5
0.001
0.1
0.9
0.7
0.1
0.005
D Prostitution
Transmission probability
0.01
1
Disease duration
0.01
Disease duration
0.01
Final fraction of R
Disease duration
0.015
0.01
0
0.001
1
0.02
0.1
0.1
Transmission probability
1
0.025
0.2
0.001
1
Transmission probability
1
0.001
0.3
C Hospital
0
0.001
0.4
0.01
0.1
0.001
1
0.6
0.5
0.2
Final fraction of R
0.01
0.3
B Gallery
0.1
0.001
0.4
0.01
0.7
0.1
Final fraction of R
0.3
0.6
0.1
0.001
0.001
0
0.01
Transmission probability
0.1
1
Final fraction of R
0.4
0.7
0.1
Disease duration
0.8
Final fraction of R
0.8
Disease duration
0.9
0.8
0.5
A Conference
1
0.9
0.6
0.01
1
1
0.9
0.7
0.1
0.001
1
1
Final fraction of R
Disease duration
1
Supplementary material Fig. S2
Information content of contact-pattern representations and predictability of epidemic outbreaks
Petter Holme
TEMPORAL NETWORKS
0.3
0.25
0.2
Conference
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.25
0.2
Gallery
0
0.75
0
1
0
0
0.25
Transmission probability
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.1
0
1
0
0
0.25
0.7
0.3
0.25
0.2
Prostitution
0.75
Disease duration
0.4
0
0
0.75
1
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.25
0.2
Reality
1
0.8
0.75
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.25
0
0.25
0.5
Transmission probability
0.75
1
0.2
School
0.1
0
0
1
0.9
0.7
0.1
0.75
1
1
0.8
0.5
0.5
0.5
Transmission probability
0.9
0.6
Transmission probability
0.75
0.8
tp / T
Disease duration
0.75
0.5
0.5
1
0.9
0.25
0.5
Transmission probability
1
0
0.6
Hospital
Disease duration
0.5
0.7
0.1
tp / T
0.25
0.8
0.75
0.5
0.1
0
0
0.6
0.1
0
0
0
0.25
0.5
Transmission probability
0.75
1
tp / T
0.4
0.9
Disease duration
0.5
Disease duration
0.5
tp / T
Disease duration
0.75
0.7
0.6
1
0.7
0.8
0.75
1
0.8
0.9
tp / T
1
1
tp / T
1
STATIC NETWORKS
0.4
0.3
0.25
0.2
Conference
0.3
0.25
0.75
0.2
0
1
0.25
Transmission probability
0.8
0.5
0.75
0.2
0.1
0
0
0
0.25
0.4
0.3
0.25
0.2
Prostitution
0
0.75
1
1
1
0.9
0.8
0.75
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.25
0.2
Reality
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.25
0
0.25
0.5
Transmission probability
0.75
1
0.2
School
0.1
0
0
0.8
0.75
0.7
0.1
0
0.75
1
1
Disease duration
0.5
0.5
0.9
Disease duration
0.5
Transmission probability
0.3
0.25
Transmission probability
1
0.6
tp / T
Disease duration
0.75
0.5
0.4
1
0.7
0.25
0.5
Transmission probability
1
0
0.5
Hospital
0
0
0.6
0.1
tp / T
0.5
0.4
Gallery
0
0.25
0.5
0.1
0
0
0.5
0.7
0.1
0
0
0
0.25
0.5
Transmission probability
0.75
1
tp / T
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.75
0.7
Disease duration
0.5
0.9
0.8
0.75
Disease duration
0.6
tp / T
Disease duration
0.7
1
0.9
0.8
0.75
1
1
0.9
tp / T
1
1
tp / T
1
FULLY MIXED
0.4
0.3
0.25
0.2
Conference
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.25
0
0.75
0
1
0
0
0.25
Transmission probability
0.5
0.75
0.1
0
0
0
0.25
0.5
0.15
0.1
0.25
Disease duration
0.2
0
0
0.75
1
0.75
1
1
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.25
0.2
Reality
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.25
0
0.25
0.5
Transmission probability
0.75
1
0.2
School
0.1
0
0
0.8
0.75
0.7
0.05
Prostitution
0.5
1
1
0.75
tp / T
Disease duration
0.2
0.9
0.75
Transmission probability
0.3
0.25
Transmission probability
0.25
0.5
0.4
1
1
0.3
0.25
0.5
Transmission probability
1
0
0.5
Hospital
Disease duration
0.5
0.6
0.1
tp / T
0.25
0.2
Gallery
0.1
0
0
0.5
0.7
0.1
0
0
0
0.25
0.5
Transmission probability
0.75
1
tp / T
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.75
0.7
Disease duration
0.5
0.9
0.8
0.75
Disease duration
0.6
tp / T
Disease duration
0.7
1
0.9
0.8
0.75
1
1
0.9
tp / T
1
1
tp / T
1