Population
in the City of North Vancouver
A Discussion Paper Prepared to Inform the Direction
of a New Official Community Plan 2012
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. 1
Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 2
Total Population ................................................................................................................................... 2
Historic and Regional Comparisons in Population Growth .................................................................... 2
Graph 1: Averaged Annual Population Growth Rates, 1986 - 2006................................................... 3
Age Distribution .................................................................................................................................... 3
Graph 2: Age Distribution as a Percentage of Population, 2006 ........................................................ 4
Table 1: North Vancouver Age Specific Total Fertility Rates by LHA (per 1000 women in age group)5
Graph 3: North Vancouver (City & District) Total Fertility Rates by Age Group, 1987 – 2010 ............ 6
Neighbourhood-Based Data ................................................................................................................. 6
Map 1: Census Neighbourhood Boundaries ...................................................................................... 7
Population Distribution.......................................................................................................................... 7
Table 2: City of North Vancouver Population Change by Neighbourhood, 1986 - 2006..................... 8
Graph 4: Population by Neighbourhood, 1986 - 2006 ....................................................................... 9
Children ................................................................................................................................................ 9
Graph 5: Number of Children Aged 9 and Under, 1986 - 2006 ........................................................ 10
Graph 6: Number of Children Aged 9 and Under, as a Percentage of Neighbourhood, 1986 - 2006 10
Youth.................................................................................................................................................. 11
Graph 7: Number of Youth Aged 10-24, 1986 - 2006 ...................................................................... 11
Graph 8: Number of Youth Aged 10-24, as a Percentage of Neighbourhood, 1986 - 2006 ............. 12
Graph 9: Number of Young Adults Aged 20-24, in Lower Lonsdale, 1986 - 2006 ............................ 13
Seniors ............................................................................................................................................... 13
Graph 10: Number of Seniors Aged 55-74, 1986 - 2006 ................................................................. 14
Graph 11: Number of Seniors Aged 55-74, as a Percentage of Neighbourhood, 1986 - 2006........ 15
Older Seniors ..................................................................................................................................... 15
Graph 12: Number of Older Seniors Aged 75+, 1986 - 2006 ........................................................... 16
Graph 13: Number of Older Seniors Aged 75+, as a Percentage of Neighbourhood, 1986 - 2006 .. 16
Immigration ............................................................................................................................................ 17
Graph 14: Immigrants as a percentage of the population, Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area,
British Columbia, and Canada , 1996, 2001 and 2006 .................................................................... 17
Graph 15: Total Number of Immigrants and Non-immigrants in the City of North Vancouver, 19862006 ............................................................................................................................................... 18
Graph 16: Percentage Immigrant Population of the City of North Vancouver Pre-1961 through 2006
....................................................................................................................................................... 19
Graph 17: Immigrant age at time of immigration, British Columbia, 2001 and 2006 ........................ 20
Implications for OCP 2021 ..................................................................................................................... 21
Resources.............................................................................................................................................. 23
Appendices ............................................................................................................................................ 25
Executive Summary
This report presents an analysis of population growth trends for the City of North Vancouver, and its
nine neighbourhoods. The principal data source is the national Census conducted by Statistics
Canada in 2006, and annual population estimates from BC Stats.
Overall, the rate of population growth in the City of North Vancouver has outpaced the two other
North Shore municipalities. According to BC Stats, between 2006 and 2010, the City grew at an
average annual rate of 1.97%, compared to West Vancouver’s 0.69% and District of North
Vancouver’s 0.84%. It almost exactly mirrors Metro Vancouver’s annual growth rate of 1.94%.
The age distribution of City residents is fairly balanced when compared with the region or province as
a whole, with similar proportions of children, youth and seniors, and a large percentage of working
age adults. Highlights of this report’s findings include:
•
•
•
•
•
•
The City’s median age of 40.1 years is exactly between the provincial median age of 40.8 and
the national median age of 39.5, and is the lowest median age on the North Shore.
Fifty percent of the population is between 25 and 54, compared to 46% for the Metro
Vancouver region.
On the North Shore, the City of North Vancouver has the lowest proportion of seniors over the
age of 55, and the lowest proportion of children (0-9) and youth (10-24).
The vast majority of children, youth and seniors are located in the Lower Lonsdale and Central
Lonsdale neighbourhoods that are characterized by multi-family dwellings. This is not
surprising as 61% of the City’s total population live in these two neighbourhoods.
While the proportion of children remains stable in the City, women in North Vancouver are
waiting until much later in life before starting a family. According to BC Stats, from 1987 to
2010, birth rates in women aged 25-29 dropped by half to 48 births per 1,000 women, while
rates in women aged 35-39 doubled to 84 births per 1,000 women.
Over the course of the next Official Community Plan, approximately 2013 through 2022, the
City’s population is expected to grow. The recently adopted Metro Vancouver Regional Growth
Strategy assigns a 1% per year growth rate to the City as its share of the region’s growth over
the coming years. This rate is in keeping with the City’s growth over the past 15 years. Similar
numbers have been used to help estimate what the community might look like in the future
through the 100 Year Sustainability Vision.
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Introduction
Incorporated in 1907, the City of North Vancouver (hereafter referred to as “the City” or “CNV”) has a
total land area of 11.85 square km. It is located on the north shore of Burrard Inlet and is bordered
on the other three sides by the District of North Vancouver (DNV). The City surrounds the Squamish
Nation’s Mission Reserve (Mission I.R. #1). Data for the Mission Reserve is excluded from this paper
except where noted.
The following report provides an overview of population trends in the City. More detailed information
on these topics is available through the Community Development Department at City Hall. The
primary data source is the national Census, which is conducted every five years, and annual
population estimates from BC Stats.
Total Population
The City of North Vancouver had a 2006 Census population of 44,860 people living in 21,350
dwellings. The 2006 Census population had an estimated net undercount rate of approximately
2.67% (i.e. people who are missed minus duplicate counts by the Census). BC Stats, the statistical
agency for the provincial government, uses the census population as a base to produce population
estimates on an annual basis using other statistical techniques without the benefit of an
enumeration.
BC Stats municipal population estimates for North Vancouver for 2007 and subsequent years are:
2007 – 47,282
2008 – 47,780
2009 – 48,944
2010 – 50,725
The 2002 Official Community Plan includes land use designations that provide the potential for a
residential population of approximately 62,000. It also includes an objective of an ultimate
population of 55,400 with dwelling unit growth not to exceed 3% annually.
Historic and Regional Comparisons in Population Growth
The population growth rate of the North Shore and Metro Vancouver has fluctuated over the years,
from a period of rapid growth associated with post-war family formation, sustained immigration, and
urbanization of the 1950s and 1960s, to comparatively slower rates in the decades that followed.
Slower population growth is associated with an aging population and a decline in natural population
growth (fewer births and more deaths in the community), combined with relatively small net inmigration (number of people moving into a community less those moving out).
From 1986 – 2006 the overall average annual population growth rate for the City has consistently
been between 0.60% and 1.92% (see Graph 1). Based on BC Stats data, between 2006 and 2010
the City’s population growth rate of 1.97% was higher than neighbouring North Shore communities:
the District of North Vancouver (0.84%) and the District of West Vancouver (0.69%). The City’s
2|Page
annual growth rate ranks 8th out of the 22 municipalities and matches Metro Vancouver’s rate of
1.94% for the same period.
Graph 1: Averaged Annual Population Growth Rates, 1986 - 2006
6.5%
6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
1.86%
1.92%
1.54%
1.26%
0.60%
1986
1991
1996
2001
Metro Vancouver
District of North Vancouver
City of North Vancouver
District of West Vancouver
2006
Age Distribution
According to the 2006 Census the median age of the City of North Vancouver’s population was 40.1,
an increase of 1.9 years, from 38.2 in 2001. Metro Vancouver’s median age increased more slowly
over the same period from 37.4 to 39.1, a difference of 1.7 years. The District of North Vancouver
had a 2006 median age of 41.7, while the District of West Vancouver (DWV) had a median age of
48.5 well above the median age for British Columbia (40.8) and Canada (39.5). The City’s proportion
of school age children and youth under the age of 24 is 26% of the total population, compared with
30% in the region (see Graph 2). Between 1996 and 2006, the number of children and youth grew
by 8.5% in the City, slightly faster than the overall population, which increased by 8.2%. This increase
is mostly in Lower Lonsdale (+30.1%) and Central Lonsdale (+29.3%). This trend correlates with the
higher percentage of multi-unit dwellings in the two neighbourhoods. In fact, all neighbourhoods
without multi-unit dwellings experienced decreases in the percentage of children and youth (ranging
from -5.4% to -18.8%), with the exception of Moodyville (+7.5%). Residents aged 25 to 54 account
for half of the City’s population in comparison to the 46% regional average. Statistics Canada refers
to this group as core working age adults. The proportion of adults over the age of 55 is comparable
to the District of North Vancouver and Metro Vancouver at approximately one quarter of the
population, while the District of West Vancouver is considerably higher at 38%. Older seniors over the
age of 75 represent 6.6% of the City of North Vancouver’s population, almost on par with the regional
average of 6%.
3|Page
From 1986 to 2006, the relative proportion of seniors in the City fluctuated between 20% and 25%
of the population. Since 1986 the 55-74 age group experienced a minor decline of 0.2% as a
proportion of the population, while those over the age of 75 increased by 1.18%. Between 1986 and
2006, the greatest population growth in the City occurred with adults aged 35-54 (+12%).
Graph 2: Age Distribution as a Percentage of Population, 2006
60%
50%
50%
46%
42%
40%
34%
30%
26%
20%
20%
21%
18%
17%
10%
9%
10%
6%
18%
20%
20%
12%
11%
7%
6%
8%
0%
Metro Vancouver
City of North Vancouver
District of North Vancouver
District of West Vancouver
-10%
Children (0-9)
Youth (10-24)
Adult (25-54)
Senior (55-74)
Older Senior (75+)
While cohort change has mainly occurred in the core working age adults, minor changes have been
taking place in the pre-school and elementary school age groups. Between 1986 and 2006, the 0-9
age groups increased by 0.7% relative to the population as a whole. Similarly, the City experienced a
1.2% increase in school age youth aged 10-19 over the same period. The increase in these two
cohorts is what has come to be known internationally as the “echo boom”, children of the “baby
boom” generation born between the late 1970s and early 2000s. It is important to note that almost
all of this increase occurred in Lower and Central Lonsdale. The other neighbourhoods within the City
have retained a consistent percentage of youths under 19, or experienced decreases. Young families
with children are increasingly choosing to live in multi-family dwellings. Whether for convenience or
financial reasons, this trend suggests that more access to open space and activities should be
provided for youths in these denser areas. The proportion of young adults (20-24) living in the CNV
declined by 4.5% from 1986 to 2006. During this same time period, the 25-34 age group, which
typically represents the predominant child-bearing years, steeply declined by 8.2%, just under the
average regional decline of 10%.
Over time, the population has shifted towards the adult age group 35-54. Within this group there is a
trend toward older parents, a trend that has been seen internationally in industrialized nations. Table
1 displays the fertility rates of women in the North Vancouver Local Health Area (LHA) which also
4|Page
includes the District of North Vancouver. The Age Specific Fertility Rates (ASFR) represents the
average number of births to 1,000 women of a specific age group and is calculated by dividing the
number of births to women in that age group by the total number of women in the age group,
multiplied by 1,000. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) represents the average number of children 1,000
women would have if their lifetime fertility was the same as the ASFRs in a given year (see Graph 3).
From 1987 to 2010, the fertility rates of 20-29 year olds declined by 55%. During the same period,
the fertility rates for women aged 30-34 were fairly level, while the rates for 35-44 year olds
increased by almost 45%. Cultural norms, financial constraints, or the pursuit of higher education
and career goals are possible causes of the parental age shift. Despite increased parental age, the
percentage of children and youth in the City’s population has remained relatively stable since 1986.
It is interesting to note that after the bottoming out in 2001, the total fertility rate in North Vancouver
appears to be increasing.
Table 1: North Vancouver Age Specific Total Fertility Rates by LHA (per 1000 women in
age group)
Year
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
TFR
1986
9.3
33.6
105.6
102.2
37.5
5.5
0.3
1470
1991
10.6
31.3
90.5
110.1
44
5.1
0
1458
1996
3.6
25.5
69.2
105.5
57.1
8.2
0.6
1348
2001
6.8
16.5
60
100.3
51.9
8.2
0.3
1220
2006
2
15
47.1
121
66
11.8
0.5
1317
2009
2
14.2
52.7
108.6
77.4
14.9
0.6
1352
5|Page
Graph 3: North Vancouver (City & District) Total Fertility Rates by Age Group, 1987 – 2010
140
Births per 1000 women
120
100
80
60
40
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
0
1987
20
45-49
Neighbourhood-Based Data
The City’s neighbourhood boundaries (Map 1) were developed to reflect areas with unique
characteristics. Customized data for each neighbourhood is purchased from Statistics Canada after
each Census. The following section examines neighbourhood-based data from 1986 through to
2006, so it is important to remember that some trends may be changing as a result of development
from 2006 to the present.
6|Page
Map 1: Census Neighbourhood Boundaries
Population Distribution
The Lower Lonsdale and Central Lonsdale neighbourhoods represent 31% of the land base in the
City of North Vancouver; however, the two neighbourhoods combined are home to 61% of the City’s
total population. The majority of the City’s multi-family dwellings and rental units are found in these
two neighbourhoods. They continue to be the main source of population growth in the City as
development has intensified over the last twenty years along Lonsdale Avenue, the spine of the City.
7|Page
Table 2: City of North Vancouver Population Change by Neighbourhood, 1986 - 2006
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
%
Change
86-91
%
Change
91-96
%
Change
96-01
%
Change
01-06
Lower Lonsdale
11,360
11,375
12,430
14,005
14,620
0.1
9.3
12.7
4.4
Central Lonsdale
9,920
10,520
11,105
12,440
12,740
6.0
5.6
12.0
2.4
Grand Boulevard
3,695
3,905
4,435
4,105
4,250
5.7
13.6
-7.4
3.5
Moodyville
2,545
2,655
2,875
2,805
2,920
4.3
8.3
-2.4
4.1
835
870
865
875
865
4.2
-0.6
1.2
-1.1
Mahon
2,485
2,550
2,695
2,635
2,690
2.6
5.7
-2.2
2.1
Marine-Hamilton
1,525
2,275
2,500
2,580
2,640
49.2
9.9
3.2
2.3
Westview
1,985
1,905
2,030
2,115
2,020
-4.0
6.6
4.2
-4.5
Tempe
1,165
2,180
2,010
2,155
2,115
87.1
-7.8
7.2
-1.9
Cedar Village
In accordance with the OCP, most growth has occurred in the Lonsdale Regional City Centre (Lower
Lonsdale and Central Lonsdale – see Table 2). Providing the community with appropriate housing
choices, now and into the future, is an important goal for the City. Further information on housing
policy can be found in the Official Community Plan (OCP) available at City Hall and at www.cnv.org.
Graph 4 reflects the population growth and contraction in the nine City neighbourhoods. MarineHamilton and Tempe experienced the greatest positive population change in relative terms.
However, since the early 1990s the population growth in both neighbourhoods has stabilized. The
2002 OCP allowed for an increase in residential development along Marine Drive, and it is
anticipated that this area will continue to grow into the future, although the total land area available
for redevelopment is limited.
8|Page
14000
12000
9920
10520
11105
12440
12740
16000
11360
11375
12430
14005
14620
Graph 4: Population by Neighbourhood, 1986 - 2006
10000
1525
2275
2500
2580
2640
1985
1905
2030
2115
2020
1165
2180
2010
2155
2115
Mahon
Marine-Hamilton
Westview
Tempe
835
870
865
875
865
4000
2485
2550
2695
2635
2690
3695
3905
4435
4105
4250
6000
2545
2655
2875
2805
2920
8000
2000
0
Lower Lonsdale Central Lonsdale
Grand Blvd
Moodyville
1986
1991
Cedar Village
1996
2001
2006
Children
Over the last two census periods (1996 to 2001, and 2001 to 2006), the City’s number of children and
youth (children 19 and under) have grown by 8.5%, compared to the District of North Vancouver’s 1.4%
decrease and the District of West Vancouver’s 3.7% increase (see Graphs 5 & 6). Despite the growth,
the City is experiencing falling enrolment numbers and school closures. Upon closer inspection, it is
evident that this growth is highly concentrated. Lower and Central Lonsdale experienced growth of
30.1% and 29.3% in those of age 19 and under between 1996 and 2006. All other neighbourhoods have
held steady, or experienced decreases in this time period, with the most notable being Tempe (-18.8%),
a single family residential neighbourhood that was more or less fully developed by 1991. In 2006, Lower
and Central Lonsdale, almost exclusively multiple family areas, were home to 44% of all children in the
City nine years of age and under (see Appendix 5), and 46% of those 19 years and under. This suggests
that special consideration should continue to be given to the needs of families with children residing in
multi-family housing. From a municipal perspective, accessible child care for working parents, safe
streets, and public spaces designed with children in mind are just a few of the issues that need to be
considered. An affordable supply of housing, attractive to parents with children in a variety of types and
tenures, will continue to attract a diversity of families to the City over time.
9|Page
Graph 5: Number of Children Aged 9 and Under, 1986 - 2006
3000
2500
2000
Marine-Hamilton
70
175
155
95
130
140
175
165
220
175
Mahon
135
135
110
90
80
150
155
215
200
145
85
90
90
95
70
140
150
185
185
220
500
235
290
255
275
220
330
355
430
535
520
1000
815
730
870
1115
1130
1500
Westview
Tempe
0
Lower Lonsdale
Central Lonsdale
Grand Blvd
Moodyville
1986
1991
Cedar Village
1996
2001
2006
Graph 6: Number of Children Aged 9 and Under, as a Percentage of Neighbourhood, 1986
- 2006
30%
25%
6.01%
8.03%
7.71%
4.41%
6.15%
6.80%
7.09%
5.42%
4.26%
3.96%
Moodyville
9.18%
7.69%
6.60%
8.53%
6.63%
5.50%
5.65%
6.43%
6.60%
7.53%
Grand Blvd
6.04%
6.08%
7.98%
7.59%
5.39%
6.36%
7.43%
5.75%
6.70%
5.18%
5%
3.33%
3.37%
3.87%
4.30%
4.08%
10%
7.17%
6.42%
7.00%
7.96%
7.73%
15%
10.18%
10.34%
10.40%
10.86%
8.09%
20%
0%
Lower Lonsdale
Central Lonsdale
1986
1991
Cedar Village
1996
Mahon
2001
Marine-Hamilton
Westview
Tempe
2006
10 | P a g e
Youth
In this report youth are defined as older children, teens, and young adults ages 10-24. As of 2006,
half of all youth in the City of North Vancouver reside in areas other than Lower and Central
Lonsdale. This suggests that Central and Lower Lonsdale are on average disproportionately older
than other City neighbourhoods (see Graph 7). Please see the Appendices for a more detailed
breakdown. Much of the City has maintained an average youth population of 20% of the total
neighbourhood population (Graph 8).
Graph 7: Number of Youth Aged 10-24, 1986 - 2006
1805
1480
1645
1825
1935
2000
1860
1795
1910
1785
2500
2455
3000
Lower Lonsdale
Central Lonsdale
395
355
460
585
505
Marine-Hamilton
Westview
455
465
500
490
305
455
445
510
605
Mahon
195
510
445
505
370
550
500
215
205
175
220
225
1000
520
405
425
445
450
745
670
710
785
840
1500
0
Grand Blvd
Moodyville
1986
1991
Cedar Village
1996
2001
Tempe
2006
11 | P a g e
16.74%
20.87%
23.13%
23.20%
23.17%
27.66%
25.00%
19.90%
18.64%
22.66%
20.00%
20.00%
17.80%
19.77%
22.92%
20.45%
20.52%
17.45%
18.74%
25.75%
23.56%
20.23%
20.43%
15.25%
14.78%
15.86%
15.41%
20.16%
17.16%
16.01%
19.12%
19.76%
14.04%
15%
18.20%
14.07%
14.81%
14.67%
15.19%
20%
16.35%
14.44%
13.64%
12.21%
25%
21.61%
30%
25.14%
26.01%
Graph 8: Number of Youth Aged 10-24, as a Percentage of Neighbourhood, 1986 - 2006
10%
5%
0%
Lower Lonsdale
Central Lonsdale
Grand Blvd
Moodyville
1986
1991
Cedar Village
1996
Mahon
2001
Marine-Hamilton
Westview
Tempe
2006
Lower Lonsdale has experienced a steady decline of youth in the 20-24 year old age cohort in both
relative and absolute terms. From 1986 to 2006, the population of young adults (20-24) dropped
from 1,700 to 990 despite overall population growth (Graphs 4 and 7). This translates to a 42%
absolute decline (or a 4.5% relative decline) of young adults in Lower Lonsdale over the same 20
year period in the densest neighbourhood in North Vancouver and the North Shore (see Graph 9).
This shift suggests that the household formation age in Lower Lonsdale is increasing and that the
City’s young adults may be less inclined, or financially able to set up their own households. This trend
is prevalent across the country.
12 | P a g e
Graph 9: Number of Young Adults Aged 20
20-24, in Lower Lonsdale,
nsdale, 1986 - 2006
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Seniors
The age at which an individual is defined as a senior varies widely. It is usually associated with an
age at which federal government pensions or medical benefits become available (age 65). This term
is becoming more ambiguouss with the abolition of a mandatory retirement age, increases in life
expectancy, and a healthier and more active older population. For the purposes of this report, the
threshold of 55-74
74 years old was chosen to delimit the City’s population of “seniors”, while those
aged over 75 years are considered “older seniors”.
Because the seniors’ cohort incorporates such a broad age range, needs and priorities may differ
significantly between the two age groups. Older seniors may value greater levels of accessibility to
services, mobility and affordability, whereas younger seniors may be less impacted by these issues.
13 | P a g e
3000
2000
1820
1885
1910
2040
2500
2090
2105
1920
2160
2320
2755
Graph 10: Number of Seniors Aged 55-74, 1986 - 2006
1500
210
245
265
305
360
385
305
260
240
285
210
250
220
295
345
45
50
60
60
115
500
460
445
355
420
495
510
455
440
465
485
710
725
750
735
770
1000
Marine-Hamilton
Westview
Tempe
0
Lower Lonsdale
Central Lonsdale
Grand Blvd
Moodyville
1986
1991
Cedar Village
1996
Mahon
2001
2006
Lower Lonsdale has the highest number of seniors currently, both in relative and absolute terms,
closely followed by Central Lonsdale. These two neighbourhoods contain the majority (64%) of the
City’s growing senior population as compared to 61% of the population as a whole (see Graph 10). It
is interesting to note that in 1986, the youth population in Lower Lonsdale was 21.6%, and the
seniors’ population was 28.3%. By 2006, seniors accounted for just over 34% of the population,
almost triple that of youth (12.2%).
Since 1986, Lower Lonsdale has experienced a steady increase in seniors age 55-74 as a proportion
of the neighbourhood population. Surprisingly, Central Lonsdale’s senior population has in fact
declined by 3.5% as a proportion of the neighbourhood population (see Graph 11). As Central
Lonsdale has experienced overall population growth, more children, youth and working age adults
are keeping the population age distribution balanced. This has not been the trend however in Lower
Lonsdale, where the proportion of seniors (55-74) has increased from 28.3% to 34.4% from 1986 –
2006.
14 | P a g e
Graph 11: Number of Seniors Aged 55-74, as a Percentage of Neighbourhood, 1986 2006
19.40%
16.01%
12.81%
11.35%
14.11%
18.03%
11.47%
10.95%
13.69%
16.31%
13.77%
10.77%
10.60%
11.82%
13.64%
Moodyville
18.51%
17.45%
13.17%
15.94%
18.40%
Grand Blvd
13.29%
Central Lonsdale
Westview
Tempe
5.39%
5.75%
6.94%
6.86%
20.04%
17.14%
15.30%
16.58%
16.61%
15%
19.22%
18.57%
16.91%
17.90%
18.12%
20%
16.02%
16.57%
15.37%
14.57%
18.84%
25%
21.07%
20.01%
17.29%
17.36%
18.21%
30%
10%
5%
0%
Lower Lonsdale
1986
1991
Cedar Village
1996
Mahon
2001
Marine-Hamilton
2006
Older Seniors
Residents over the age of 75 are a distinct group in the community and account for 7% of the City’s
population (almost 3,000 individuals). Services and facilities must be provided that will cater to the
senior population, as a growing number of older adults and seniors in the community are maintaining
active lives, and are likely to live well into their 80s and beyond. The senior female population is a
consistently larger sub-group (25-40% greater) than males of the same cohort, particularly for those
over the age of 75 (see Appendices 1 - 5). Issues such as financial need, housing, health, family
support, and social relationships are important considerations for this group.
The largest group of older seniors are located in Central Lonsdale, followed by Lower Lonsdale (see
Graph 12). In 1986, 51% of the City’s older senior population resided in Central Lonsdale, but this
declined to 42% by 2006 (see Graph 13). Lower Lonsdale has maintained a stable proportion of
older seniors at approximately 28% of the neighbourhood population.
15 | P a g e
Graph 12: Number of Older Seniors Aged 75+, 1986 - 2006
775
790
1000
935
995
1200
1035
1165
1255
1400
Marine-Hamilton
Westview
35
45
25
55
85
65
80
100
85
100
0
5
0
20
10
75
105
95
165
135
75
105
145
175
220
200
230
220
115
145
400
55
65
75
70
95
335
600
520
625
635
800
0
Lower Lonsdale
Central Lonsdale
Grand Blvd
Moodyville
1986
1991
Cedar Village
1996
Mahon
2001
Tempe
2006
The mobility and accessibility needs of seniors are important to consider in the City given the terrain
of the North Shore. The role of conventional and specialized public transportation must be factored
into transportation planning and policy, particularly as this age group is expected to grow over time.
7.88%
3.00%
2.06%
1.24%
2.55%
4.02%
3.61%
2.86%
3.00%
2.71%
3.60%
3.27%
4.20%
4.93%
4.02%
4.95%
6.26%
0.00%
0.57%
0.00%
5.02%
6.24%
2%
3.02%
4.12%
3.53%
4%
2.95%
3.95%
5.04%
5.19%
5.36%
3.11%
3.71%
6%
4.58%
5.49%
5.11%
5.53%
5.40%
8%
2.29%
1.16%
8.42%
8.32%
10%
7.53%
12%
9.85%
10.03%
11.07%
Graph 13: Number of Older Seniors Aged 75+, as a Percentage of Neighbourhood, 1986 2006
0%
Lower Lonsdale
Central Lonsdale
Grand Blvd
Moodyville
1986
1991
Cedar Village
1996
Mahon
2001
Marine-Hamilton
Westview
Tempe
2006
16 | P a g e
The growth of the seniors’ population will have profound implications for neighbourhoods,
communities, governments, service providers and for seniors themselves. The effects of North
Vancouver’s aging population will impact housing markets, social services, health care, and
recreation systems. Increases in life expectancies and seniors’ health will mean an even greater
increase in the seniors population through increased longevity and reduced migration.
Immigration
Graph 14: Immigrants as a percentage of the population, Vancouver Census Metropolitan
Area, British Columbia, and Canada , 1996, 2001 and 2006
45.00%
40.00%
38%39.30%
35%
35.00%
30.00%
26%27.20%
24.20%
25.00%
19.80%
18.40%
16.10%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
Vancouver
British Columbia
1996
2001
Canada
2006
Birth rates in all industrialized nations, including Canada, have remained below replacement level
since the 1970s, and are predicted to continue this way for some time. Future population growth will
be fuelled by immigration.
Statistics Canada reports that in British Columbia in 2010-2011 international and inter-provincial
immigration resulted in a net new population of 41,600. By 2035-36, it is estimated this number will
be as high as 65,400 people. Over this time period, 77.4% of overall growth is predicted to be a
result of international immigration, 17.3% of growth will come from inter-provincial migration, and
5.3% will be attributable to natural increase (births minus deaths). In 2006, 90% of British
Columbia’s recent immigrant population (2001-2006) settled in the Southwest region of the
province.
17 | P a g e
In the City of North Vancouver immigration has, and continues to be, a major source of population
growth. In 2006, 36.5% of the population of North Vancouver were immigrants, much higher than
the national average of 19.6%. The percentage of immigrants by period of arrival was also higher
than British Columbia as a whole, as well as the District of North Vancouver and the City of West
Vancouver. Graph 15 highlights the low native born growth rate, and the increase in immigrants as a
percentage of the population of the City of North Vancouver from 1986-2006. The last census period
is the first census period which records a native-born population decline with growth only through
immigration.
Graph 15: Total Number of Immigrants and Non-immigrants in the City of North
Vancouver, 1986-2006
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1986
1991
Immigrant population
1996
2001
2006
Non-immigrant population
18 | P a g e
Graph 16: Percentage Immigrant Population of the City of North Vancouver Pre-1961
through 2006
35.00%
30.00%
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
Before
1961
1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2006
North Vancouver
British Columbia
The median age of immigrants is generally lower than the median age of the general population, so it
is predicted that the increase in percent of recent immigrants will have a slight mediating effect on
the aging of the City’s population, as well as bolster a declining labour force. According to Citizenship
and Immigration Canada, from 1996-2001 over 40% of immigrants were in their prime working-age
years, defined as ages 25-44. Graph 17 shows that the majority of immigrants to British Columbia in
both the 2001 and 2006 census periods were of prime working age. Between 2002 and 2006 the
Lower Mainland received 20% of immigrants to British Columbia under the age of 15, higher than
any other region in the province.
19 | P a g e
Graph 17: Immigrant age at time of immigration, British Columbia, 2001 and 2006
500000
400000
300000
200000
Immigrants 2001
100000
0
0-4 years
5-19 years
20-39 years
40 years
and over
500000
400000
300000
200000
Immigrants 2006
100000
0
Under 5
years
5 to 14
years
15 to 24
years
25 to 44 45 years
years
and over
The area of origin of the immigrant population, both nationally and provincially, has changed
dramatically in the last forty years. In 1968, approximately 65 per cent of all Canadian immigration
originated in Europe, followed by 12 percent from Asia and 11 per cent from the United States.
However by 2008, only 16 percent of all Canadian immigration originated from Europe, with 5 per
cent from the United States and 57 per cent from Asia. The comparable figures for British Columbia
in 2010 were 12.7 percent from Europe, 3.8 per cent from the United States and 74.1 per cent from
Asia.
In the City of North Vancouver the largest recent immigrant group is from Iran, who comprised 25% of
the total immigrants in the City in 2006. Although immigrants from Iran remain the largest recent
immigrant group, there are also a significant number of recent immigrants from the Philippines and
South Korea.
20 | P a g e
Implications for OCP 2021
Effective community planning anticipates growth, and uses existing and planned resources to
provide for change. Over the course of the next Official Community Plan the City’s population is
expected to grow, and along with this growth will come the need for additional services. The 2002
Official Community Plan includes land use designations that provide the potential for a residential
population of approximately 62,000. It also includes an objective of an ultimate population of
55,400, with dwelling unit growth not to exceed 3% annually. The recently adopted Metro Vancouver
Regional Growth Strategy assigns a 1% per year growth rate to the City as its share of the region’s
growth over the coming years, in keeping with the City’s growth over the past 15 years. The challenge
for the next Official Community Plan will be to accommodate this growth while maintaining the high
standard of living and community services residents of the City of North Vancouver have come to
expect. It will also be important to consider how best to allocate resources for the City’s shifting
population.
BC Stats projections indicate that the aging trend across the province and generally within the region
will continue, with fewer young children and youth, and more older people than today. These trends
reflect broader trends across Canada as the “baby boomers”, which constitute 30% of Canada’s
population, continue to age. As improvements in health care lead to longer life expectancies and
birth rates remains below replacement level, this trend is expected to continue.
This demographic change will have dramatic implications for the labour force and economic
productivity. Recent figures from Statistics Canada indicate that due to retiring “baby boomers” the
size of the labour force is expected to decrease. At the same time a larger proportion of the labour
force will be foreign-born. The Lower Mainland currently attracts 44% of inter-provincial migration
and 92% of international immigration to British Columbia, as well as 80% of permanent residents.
Although, migration is subject to a myriad of factors from unemployment rates to political instability,
it is expected that it will continue to contribute more to population growth rates than natural
increase.
There are also significant implications on the type and level of services that will be required,
particularly in the areas of health, recreation, transportation, housing, and community design. An
increasingly older population, with a declining percentage of school age children, may influence the
type of resources valued by the community, and shifts in population from single-family residences to
multi-family housing may affect the distribution of these resources.
21 | P a g e
Potentially, a larger influx of immigrants and the continued provision of diverse, affordable housing
could retain and attract younger families to the City, reducing the effects of an aging population. The
proximity to downtown Vancouver and access to jobs, services and transportation are all attractive
features that have drawn new residents and families to the City of North Vancouver for many years,
and it is anticipated that this will continue into the future. As energy and transportation costs
continue to rise, more people are likely to appreciate the compact development and efficient location
of the City of North Vancouver. Planning for a healthy population, representing all age ranges, will
help to meet the needs of the community, and foster greater social resilience in the face of
challenges such as climate change.
22 | P a g e
Resources
City of North Vancouver
http://www.cnv.org
Statistics Canada:
http://www.statcan.ca
BC Stats:
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca
Metro Vancouver:
http://metrovancouver.org
Welcome BC:
http://www.welcomebc.ca
Citizenship and Immigration Canada:
http://www.cic.gc.ca
The Law Foundation of British Columbia
www.lawfoundationbc.org
Urban Futures
http://urbanfutures.com
23 | P a g e
For more information on statistical data for the City of North Vancouver please email [email protected]
24 | P a g e
Appendices
1. 1986 Population by Age Cohorts and Gender
City
Total
Lower
Lonsdale
Central
Lonsdale
Grand
Blvd
Moodyville
Cedar
Village
Mahon
MarineHamilton
Westview
Tempe
Population,
1986
35960
11360
9920
3695
2545
835
2485
1525
1985
1165
Male, Total
16790
5455
4305
1840
1305
430
1250
740
910
555
00-04
990
270
195
120
95
40
90
75
70
35
05-09
715
150
135
115
45
45
60
65
65
35
10-14
615
135
120
95
65
30
60
35
45
30
15-19
915
210
210
125
100
40
80
45
80
25
20-24
1870
755
490
145
130
55
120
65
70
40
25-34
4240
1670
1155
335
275
80
260
175
165
125
35-44
2455
820
550
285
190
80
180
120
125
105
45-54
1605
475
370
230
130
50
140
60
90
60
55-64
1640
465
425
220
145
20
140
55
110
60
65-74
1125
335
355
130
100
0
80
35
55
35
650
170
305
40
35
0
40
15
30
15
18715
5905
5610
1850
1240
405
1235
785
1075
610
00-04
935
250
180
115
95
35
80
55
75
50
05-09
665
145
140
100
60
25
50
40
70
35
10-14
615
125
120
90
50
35
55
55
60
25
15-19
950
285
205
130
80
35
75
45
65
30
20-24
2180
945
660
160
95
20
120
60
75
45
25-34
4175
1520
1225
325
270
80
265
160
200
130
35-44
2415
715
600
270
160
115
160
140
155
100
45-54
1825
555
485
240
135
30
150
65
110
55
55-64
1890
525
575
230
145
20
135
60
130
70
65-74
1785
495
735
130
120
5
105
60
90
45
75 years and
over
1285
350
690
75
40
0
35
40
35
20
75 years and
over
Female,
Total
25 | P a g e
2. 1991 Population by Age Cohorts and Gender
City
Total
Lower
Lonsdale
Central
Lonsdale
Grand
Blvd
Moodyville
Cedar
Village
Mahon
MarineHamilton
Westview
Tempe
Population,
1991
38715
11375
10520
3905
2655
870
2550
2275
1905
2180
Male, Total
18390
5515
4660
1915
1335
425
1225
1070
930
1075
00-04
1085
235
220
155
90
45
90
85
65
80
05-09
880
155
135
135
60
45
65
90
70
95
10-14
755
115
125
125
40
30
60
75
65
85
15-19
815
180
145
100
70
30
55
60
70
80
20-24
1470
530
400
110
95
35
85
80
55
65
25-34
3495
1005
890
435
250
70
255
165
190
210
35-44
3235
985
720
345
265
75
205
220
160
210
45-54
1895
535
460
210
135
50
130
90
120
135
55-64
1600
470
430
225
115
20
125
75
70
75
65-74
75 years and
over
1235
380
405
125
100
5
80
40
65
35
770
210
330
65
50
0
50
20
35
20
Female, Total
20330
5860
5860
1995
1320
445
1325
1210
980
1110
00-04
1035
210
190
155
95
35
100
85
60
75
05-09
860
130
155
125
85
40
60
90
60
85
10-14
775
125
135
110
55
45
70
85
70
75
15-19
870
210
180
90
50
30
85
85
50
75
20-24
1765
700
495
135
95
35
90
70
45
75
25-34
4450
1535
1230
365
275
80
285
255
180
200
35-44
3200
845
785
345
220
100
205
230
170
250
45-54
2155
655
585
210
140
55
125
140
120
115
55-64
1830
490
590
200
130
20
135
75
85
75
65-74
75 years and
over
1830
545
680
175
110
5
105
55
85
65
1565
415
835
80
55
5
55
45
45
25
26 | P a g e
3. 1996 Population by Age Cohorts and Gender
City
Total
Lower
Lonsdale
Central
Lonsdale
Population,
1996
41475
12430
11105
4435
2875
865
Male, Total
19800
6070
5055
2155
1405
375
00-04
1195
290
285
100
110
45
05-09
930
170
145
155
75
10-14
990
110
200
150
70
15-19
955
200
195
120
20-24
1420
585
350
130
25-34
4345
1625
1230
365
295
55
225
220
150
120
35-44
3985
1285
970
420
345
65
270
210
175
195
45-54
2475
715
640
270
165
50
150
170
120
170
55-64
1490
460
370
170
130
20
100
75
70
60
65-74
75 years
and over
1290
420
395
170
80
0
90
40
50
40
705
215
265
100
45
0
30
10
25
15
Female,
Total
Grand
Blvd
MarineHamilton
Westview
Tempe
2695
2500
2030
2010
1375
1130
940
1010
115
90
45
90
45
100
75
65
65
50
110
80
110
80
55
15
75
80
85
115
40
20
95
75
50
60
Moodyville
Cedar
Village
Mahon
21675
6360
6050
2275
1470
490
1320
1370
1090
1005
00-04
1110
210
205
195
115
55
90
105
60
50
05-09
960
200
140
145
70
40
65
80
95
90
10-14
905
130
205
90
105
55
45
70
90
80
15-19
990
170
210
145
65
35
120
85
75
55
20-24
1515
600
485
75
90
0
60
55
50
75
25-34
4605
1715
1370
360
270
75
240
285
115
135
35-44
3960
1085
930
470
240
120
310
295
255
205
45-54
2620
790
665
250
180
70
145
175
135
170
55-64
1850
575
595
240
110
20
90
75
65
65
65-74
75 years
and over
1610
455
560
170
120
20
75
75
75
55
1550
420
670
130
100
0
65
65
75
10
27 | P a g e
4. 2001 Population by Age Cohorts and Gender
City
Total
Lower
Lonsdale
Central
Lonsdale
Grand
Blvd
Moodyville
Cedar
Village
Mahon
MarineHamilton
Westview
Tempe
Population,
2001
43925
14005
12440
4105
2805
875
2635
2580
2115
2155
Male, Total
20980
6760
5670
2020
1345
415
1325
1225
1015
1080
00-04
1175
300
320
120
85
40
105
120
40
40
05-09
1100
260
215
155
100
55
95
100
50
55
10-14
950
200
210
95
65
50
30
100
100
85
15-19
1255
270
245
155
80
40
95
85
130
140
20-24
1345
515
375
110
65
0
60
65
70
80
25-34
3695
1545
1020
275
210
40
195
150
135
105
35-44
4220
1510
1185
345
260
105
275
225
170
135
45-54
3205
960
805
330
215
50
170
185
200
290
55-64
1845
550
570
210
100
25
150
90
45
80
65-74
75 years and
over
1350
420
395
150
130
10
75
75
60
50
840
225
330
80
40
10
85
20
25
25
Female,
Total
22950
7240
6765
2085
1455
465
1310
1360
1105
1075
00-04
1075
330
290
100
75
10
75
65
60
70
05-09
1010
225
205
105
95
40
85
115
60
90
10-14
1025
130
225
190
90
45
75
80
110
65
15-19
1140
255
315
105
100
65
45
95
90
60
20-24
1495
540
455
130
45
20
65
85
85
70
25-34
4010
1645
1245
220
225
45
185
190
110
115
35-44
4415
1335
1235
400
270
125
305
320
200
200
45-54
3460
1160
905
315
190
70
180
225
205
205
55-64
2055
700
660
210
135
25
100
85
65
70
65-74
75 years and
over
1510
370
535
165
100
0
95
55
70
95
1755
550
705
140
135
10
80
50
60
30
28 | P a g e
5. 2006 Population by Age Cohorts and Gender
City
Total
Lower
Lonsdale
Central
Lonsdale
Population,
2006
44860
14620
12740
4250
2920
865
Male, Total
21245
6985
5755
2040
1435
430
00-04
1040
345
290
75
70
15
05-09
1070
205
230
145
150
55
10-14
1155
200
230
165
75
15-19
1155
255
265
165
35
20-24
1560
440
500
120
25-34
3235
1505
810
200
35-44
3870
1410
1120
345
245
65
170
215
150
140
45-54
3490
1055
935
340
285
45
265
165
200
200
55-64
2255
780
560
240
135
50
115
130
110
145
65-74
75 years and
over
1375
460
425
145
100
20
105
50
50
30
1055
315
390
180
100
10
55
20
40
30
23615
7640
6985
2210
1490
435
1275
1400
1105
1070
00-04
1100
350
255
150
105
30
70
65
15
60
05-09
945
230
215
125
55
50
45
95
80
45
10-14
990
180
180
175
80
55
55
105
85
70
15-19
1100
160
360
135
95
25
60
80
115
60
20-24
1445
550
400
80
65
10
80
85
100
70
25-34
3565
1485
1035
225
220
45
155
155
115
135
35-44
4255
1355
1235
385
290
105
215
275
215
195
45-54
4025
1335
1090
400
210
60
250
285
190
205
55-64
2725
1000
835
180
160
45
195
95
95
110
65-74
75 years and
over
1575
515
500
205
90
0
80
85
30
60
1890
475
865
155
120
0
80
75
60
55
Female,
Total
Grand
Blvd
MarineHamilton
Westview
Tempe
2690
2640
2020
2115
1410
1240
920
1045
80
65
40
55
65
110
40
75
60
140
100
85
85
40
105
130
70
95
100
35
110
105
50
110
155
30
195
165
90
85
Moodyville
Cedar
Village
Mahon
29 | P a g e