2
Moray Council Area - Demographic Factsheet
Population
Last updated:
27/04/2017
Next update due:
Jun-17
The 2016 population for Moray is 96,070; an increase of 0.6 per cent from 95,510 in 2015. The population of Moray accounts for 1.8 per cent of the total population of Scotland.
In Moray, 16.1 per cent of the population are aged 16 to 29 years. This is smaller than Scotland where 18.2 per cent are aged 16 to 29 years. Persons aged 60 and over make up 26.9 per cent of Moray. This is
larger than Scotland where 24.4 per cent are aged 60 and over.
Since 1989, Moray's total population has risen overall. Scotland's population has also risen over this period.
Estimated population of Moray and Scotland, by age group, 2016
Female pop. Moray Total pop. of Moray
% of total pop. of
Moray
Male pop.
Scotland
Age group
Total pop. of
Scotland
% of total pop.
of Scotland
0-15
8,516
8,011
16,527
17.2%
0-15
468,396
447,521
915,917
16.9%
16-29
8,270
7,178
15,448
16.1%
16-29
492,255
489,057
981,312
18.2%
30-44
8,437
8,629
17,066
17.8%
30-44
498,502
518,802
1,017,304
18.8%
45-59
10,560
10,651
21,211
22.1%
45-59
567,588
602,175
1,169,763
21.6%
60-74
8,167
8,892
17,059
17.8%
60-74
421,742
456,353
878,095
16.2%
75+
3,703
5,056
8,759
9.1%
75+
179,020
263,289
442,309
8.2%
All ages
47,653
48,417
96,070
100.0%
2,627,503
2,777,197
5,404,700
100.0%
Estimated population of Moray by age and sex, 30 June 2016
All ages
Estimated population of Moray and Scotland, 1989-2016
12,000
Persons (1,000s)
Council area
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
120
6,000
100
5,000
80
4,000
60
3,000
40
2,000
20
1,000
Moray
Female
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Scotland
2015
2013
2009
2007
2005
Age group
Male
0
2003
75+
2001
60-74
1999
45-59
1997
30-44
1995
16-29
1993
0-15
1991
0
0
1989
Population
Female pop.
Scotland
Persons (1,000s)
Scotland
Male pop. Moray
2011
Age group
Births (calendar year)
Between 2014 and 2015 Moray experienced a 2.8 per cent decrease in the number of births, dropping from 931 in 2014, to 905 in 2015. The number of births in Scotland fell by 2.9 per cent.
The most popular name given to boys born in Moray in 2016 was Noah and the most popular name given to girls was both Emily and Isla.
Fertility in Moray decreased from 56.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 in 2014, to 54.8 in 2015. For Scotland as a whole, the general feritlity rate decreased from 54.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 in
2014, to 53.2 in 2015.
Births in Moray and Scotland, 2014 and 2015
Births 2014
Moray
Scotland
Births 2015
% change in total no. of births
2014-2015
Male
Female
Male
472
459
467
Female
438
-2.8%
29,056
27,669
28,354
26,744
-2.9%
Live births by sex, Moray, 2005-2015
80
600
70
500
60
No. of births
General Fertility Rate
General Fertility Rate* (GFR) in Moray and Scotland, 2010-2015
50
40
30
400
300
200
20
100
10
0
0
2010
2011
2012
Moray
2013
2014
2015
2005
Scotland
2006
2007
2008
2009
Male
* Live births per 1,000 women aged 15 - 44
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© Crown Copyright 2017
2010
2011
Female
2012
2013
2014
2015
Deaths (calendar year)
The number of deaths in Moray increased from 947 in 2014 to 1,054 in 2015. Over the period 2013 to 2015 the overall death rate was lower for males than for females.
Compared to Scotland over the period 2013 to 2015, Moray had a higher death rate. The main cause of death in Moray was circulatory disease, followed by cancer.
Deaths and age specific death rates by age group, the combined years 2013-2015
Age group
Deaths in Moray
Deaths in Scotland
Age specific death rate per 1,000 people, Moray
Female
Age specific death rate per 1,000 people, Scotland
Male
Female
0
9
568
4.0
2.1
2.9
3.4
3.0
3.2
1-14
2
33
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
15-29
8
22
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.5
30-44
48
10
1.0
1.4
1.3
1.9
1.0
1.4
45-64
1
4
5.5
3.6
5.0
6.5
4.3
5.4
65+
11
58
43.9
47.3
49.2
166,518
56.4
11.6
51.6
2,940
48.8
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.4
All ages
Male
Cause of death in males, Moray, 2015*
All Persons
10.6
Cause of death in females, Moray, 2015*
Cancer
Cancer
19.0%
31.0%
4.7%
24.2%
Circulatory Diseases
24.8%
4.6%
Digestive Diseases
Digestive Diseases
29.4%
6.8%
28.7%
External Causes
Other
Circulatory Diseases
Respiratory Diseases
Respiratory Diseases
3.7%
12.9%
All Persons
External Causes
Other
10.1%
* Due to rounding these figures may differ slightly from those published in Vital Events Reference Tables. See 'Data sources' for link to this data.
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© Crown Copyright 2017
Migration
Migration, in, out, and net, Moray, annual average 2013-15*
1,500
On average in 2013-15 there was a net inflow of 494 people into Moray per year, meaning that more
people entered Moray (3,566 per year) than left (3,072 per year). The 16 to 29 year olds age group
accounted for the largest group of in-migrants into Moray. The largest group of out-migrants was also the
16 to 29 year olds.
1,000
Persons
500
Average migration in and out of Moray,
2013-15*
Age Group
In
0
-500
Out
Net
-1,000
0-15
766
616
150
16-29
953
1,094
-141
30-44
849
630
219
45-64
692
486
206
306
3,566
246
3,072
60
494
65+
All ages
-1,500
0-15
16-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Age group
IN-Migration
OUT-Migration
NET-Migration
*Migration figures are based on a 3-year average and include migration within Scotland, between Scotland and the rest of the UK, and between Scotland and overseas. They do not include asylum seekers and armed forces movements.
Life Expectancy
Female life expectancy at birth (81.7 years) is greater than male life expectancy (78.7 years), and both were greater than the Scottish average. Male life expectancy at birth in Moray is improving more rapidly than
female life expectancy.
In Moray female life expectancy at age 65 (20.4 years) is greater than male life expectancy at age 65 (17.9 years).
Life Expectancy for Moray and Scotland, 2003-2005 and 2013-2015
Life expectancy at birth in Moray and Scotland, 2013-2015
Moray
Life expectancy at birth
85
Life expectancy at 65
Male
Female
Male
Female
2013-2015
78.7
81.7
17.9
20.4
2003-2005
% Change
between 20032005 and 20132015
75.6
80.2
-
-
75
4.2%
1.9%
-
-
70
Years
80
65
Scotland
Life expectancy at birth
Life expectancy at 65
60
Male
Female
Male
Female
2013-2015
77.1
81.1
17.3
19.7
2003-2005
% Change
between 20032005 and 20132015
74.2
79.0
-
-
3.9%
2.7%
-
-
55
50
Moray
Scotland
Male
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© Crown Copyright 2017
Female
Marriages & Civil Partnerships
There were 412 marriages in Moray in 2015; an increase of 9.6 per cent from 2014.
In Moray 42.2 per cent of people marrying in 2015 were aged 25-34. In Scotland as a whole 47.5 per cent of people marrying were in this age group.
Since 2005 the number of marriages in Moray has fallen by 6.4 per cent.
Scotland has seen an increase during the same period of time.
Number of people marrying in Moray and Scotland by 10-year age group, 2015
No. of people
marrying in
Scotland
% of people
marrying in Moray
500
% of people
marrying in
Scotland
16-24
94
3,961
11.4%
6.7%
25-34
348
28,196
42.2%
47.5%
35-44
178
13,154
21.6%
22.2%
45+
204
14,071
24.8%
23.7%
All ages
824
59,382
100.0%
100.0%
35,000
450
30,000
400
350
25,000
300
20,000
250
200
15,000
150
10,000
100
5,000
50
0
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Moray
Civil Partnerships in Moray and Scotland by sex, 2014 and 2015
2014
Male
Moray
Scotland
2015
Female
Male
Female
2
2
-
2
193
243
33
31
5
© Crown Copyright 2017
Scotland
Scotland
No. of people
marrying in Moray
Council Area
Age group
Number of marriages in Moray and Scotland, 2005-2015
Population Projections
By 2039 the population of Moray is projected to be 95,583, an increase of 2.9 per cent compared to the population in 2014. The population of Scotland is projected to increase by 7.5 per cent between 2014 and
2039.
Over the 25 year period, the age group that is projected to increase the most in size in Moray is the 75+ age group. This is the same as for Scotland as a whole.
The population aged under 16 in Moray is projected to decline by 8.1 per cent over the 25 year period.
Projected population, by age group, in Moray, 2014-2039
Base
Projected years
Base year
Age group
2014
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
0-15
16,591
16,141
15,786
15,471
15,442
15,246
16-29
15,472
14,987
14,549
14,100
13,919
13,665
30-49
24,245
22,796
22,325
23,020
22,805
22,528
50-64
19,454
20,705
20,836
19,210
17,622
17,123
65-74
10,563
11,385
11,766
12,908
13,890
13,479
75+
6,566
7,459
9,262
10,645
12,007
13,542
All ages
92,891
93,473
94,524
95,354
95,685
95,583
Components of projected population change for Moray and Scotland, 2014-2039 (2014based projections)
120%
10%
100%
8%
Percentage change
Percentage change
Percentage change in population in Moray and Scotland, 2014-2039 (2014-based
projections)
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-20%
0-15
16-29
30-49
50-64
65-74
-4%
75+
Moray
Scotland
Age group
Moray
Natural Change*
Scotland
* Natural change equals births minus deaths
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Net Migration
Total Change
Households & Dwellings
The 2015 estimate of the number of households in Moray is 41,641. This is a 0.9 per cent increase in the 2014 figure of 41,288, compared to a 0.6 per cent increase in Scotland as a whole. The proportion of these
households receiving a single adult Council Tax discount is 34.1 per cent. For Scotland, this figure is 37.4 per cent.
With regards to the dwellings in Moray, 95 per cent are occupied, 4 per cent are vacant and 2 per cent are second homes. The proportions of dwellings in Scotland which are vacant and second homes are 3.1 per
cent and 1.1 per cent, respectively.
The 2015 estimate of the number of dwellings in Moray is 44,096. This is an increase of 0.7 per cent from 2014 and compares to a 0.7 per cent increase across Scotland as a whole.
Household estimates for Moray and Scotland, 2007-2015
2015
% change
2014-2015
% change
2010-2015
Year
2007
Moray
Scotland
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
38,909
39,274
39,486
39,813
40,155
40,492
40,839
41,288
41,641
0.9%
4.6%
2,318,966
2,337,967
2,351,780
2,364,850
2,376,424
2,387,211
2,401,788
2,418,335
2,433,956
0.6%
2.9%
2012
2013
2014
2015
% change
2014-2015
% change
2010-2015
Number of dwellings in Moray and Scotland, June 2007-2015
Year
2007
Scotland
2009
2010
41,172
41,544
41,981
42,241
42,699
43,139
43,495
43,788
44,096
0.7%
4.4%
2,440,596
2,460,883
2,476,157
2,488,496
2,500,849
2,515,042
2,526,870
2,540,561
2,557,582
0.7%
2.8%
Number of households in Moray and Scotland, 2007-2015
Number of dwellings in Moray and Scotland, 2007-2015
3,000
2,500
35
30
2,000
25
1,500
20
15
1,000
10
500
5
0
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Number of dwellings (1,000s)
Council area
40
Number of households (1,000s)
Scotland
45
Number of households (1,000s)
Council area
2011
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2007
2015
2008
2009
2010
Moray
2015
Scotland
6%
Flat
A-C
Terraced
27%
Semi-detached
66%
Detached
31%
2014
Proportions of dwellings by Council Tax band in Moray, 2015
0%
19%
2013
Moray
Scotland
Types of dwelling in Moray, 2014
13%
2012
Year
Year
37%
2011
Unknown
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© Crown Copyright 2017
F-H
D-E
Number of dwellings (1,000s)
Scotland
Moray
2008
Household Projections
The total number of households in Moray is projected to change from 41,288 in 2014 to 46,832 in 2039, which is an increase of 13 per cent. In Scotland as a whole, the projected number of households is set to
increase by 14 per cent over the same 25 year period.
In Scotland, the number of lone adult households is projected to increase by 31 per cent over the 25 year period. In Moray, the number of lone adult households is projected to increase by 31 per cent, and the
number of larger households in Moray is projected to fall, with the number of households of 2 or more adults with children decreasing by 16 per cent over the 25 year period. The average household size is projected
to decrease from 2.24 in 2014 to 2.04 in 2039.
In Moray, households headed by 60-74 year olds are projected to increase in number by 6 per cent, and those headed by the 75+ age group are projected to increase in number by 90 per cent between the years
2014 and 2039.
Projected number of households in Moray and Scotland,
2014-2039
Projected percentage change in household, by household type, in Moray and Scotland,
2014-2039
3,000
2,500
40
35
2,000
30
25
1,500
20
1,000
15
10
500
5
0
0
2014
2019
2024
2029
2034
80%
60%
Percentage change
45
Number of households (1,000s)
Scotland
Number of households (1,000s)
Council area
50
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
1 adult
2039
1 adult with 1 or
more children
3 or more adults
Year
Moray
Household type
Scotland
Moray
Base-year
Projected number of households
2 or more adults
with 1 or more
children
Scotland
% change in Moray
2014-2039
% change in
Scotland
2014-2039
31%
2014
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
12,894
13,818
14,679
15,471
16,147
16,832
31%
1 adult with 1 or more children
2,017
2,302
2,581
2,886
3,177
3,413
69%
22%
3 or more adults
3,251
3,165
2,985
2,759
2,582
2,507
-23%
-18%
-12%
1 adult
2 or more adults with 1 or more children
Total households - Moray
Total households - Scotland
Household by age of head of household
8,495
8,072
7,738
7,535
7,350
7,157
-16%
41,288
42,840
44,114
45,223
46,070
46,832
13%
2,418,336
2,503,212
2,580,490
2,650,280
2,711,938
2,763,773
Base-year
2014
Projected number of households
% change in Moray
2014-2039
% change in
Scotland
2014-2039
2024
2029
2034
2039
16-29 years
3,857
3,921
3,786
3,604
3,696
3,625
-6%
0%
30-44 years
9,090
8,851
9,405
9,825
9,711
9,602
6%
6%
45-59 years
12,197
12,497
11,688
10,847
10,665
11,367
-7%
1%
60-74 years
10,115
10,748
11,159
11,813
11,792
10,763
6%
11%
79%
75+ years
Total households - Moray
Total households - Scotland
2019
14%
6,029
6,823
8,075
9,135
10,207
11,475
90%
41,288
42,840
44,114
45,223
46,070
46,832
13%
2,418,336
2,503,212
2,580,490
2,650,280
2,711,938
2,763,773
8
© Crown Copyright 2017
14%
Data Sources - 27/04/2017
Population
Data
Current population estimates
Time series population estimates
Births
Data
Fertility rates
Popular names
Births
Deaths
Data
Deaths
Death rates
Cause of death
Migration
Data
Total migration
Life Expectancy
Data
Life exp. at birth
Life exp. at age 65
Update the 'Total population' and 'latest MYE' worksheets
Source
Mid-year Population Estimates Scotland: Table 1
Population Estimates Time Series Data (first table in the list)
Next update due
Apr-18
Apr-18
Link
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year-p
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year-p
Update the 'Fertility', 'Popular names', and 'Births' worksheets
Source
Vital Events Reference Tables: Table 3.8
Vital Events Popular Forenames: Table 3
Births Time Series Data: Table 'Births by Council Area, by sex, 1997 to…..'
Next update due
Aug-17
Mar-17
Aug-17
Link
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/vital-events-reference-tables
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/births/popular-names
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/births/births-time-series-data
Update the 'VE deaths latest', 'combined deaths', 'comb.MYE', 'cause of
death' and 'VE ref table - 6.3 (cause)' worksheets
Source
Vital Events Reference Tables: Table 5.2
Vital Events Reference Tables: Table 5.2
Mid-year Population Estimates Scotland: Table 2
Vital Events Reference Tables: Table 6.3
Next update due
Aug-17
Aug-17
Aug-17
Aug-17
Link
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/vital-events-reference-tables
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/vital-events-reference-tables
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year-p
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/vital-events-reference-tables
Update the 'Migration2', 'Migration 3', and 'total migration' worksheets
Source
Total Net Migration by Council Area by Single Year of Age and Sex
Next update due
Jul-17
Link
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/migration/migration-statistics/total-migratio
update the 'LE' worksheet
Source
Life Expectancy for Administrative Areas within Scotland: Tables 6 and 7
Life Expectancy for Administrative Areas within Scotland: Table 10
Next update due
Nov-17
Nov-17
Link
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottishhttp://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottish-
Source
Vital Events Reference Tables: Table 1.3
Vital Events Reference Tables: Table 1.3
Request from Vital Events branch
Next update due
Aug-17
Aug-17
Aug-17
Link
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/vital-events-reference-tables
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/vital-events-reference-tables
email: [email protected]
Update the 'Population Projections', 'Pop Proj Table2' and 'components of
change' worksheet
Source
Population Projections for Scottish Areas: Table 2
Population Projections for Scottish Areas: Table A
Next update due
Oct-18
Oct-18
Link
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/sub-natio
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/sub-natio
Update 'Household Estimates', 'No. of Dwellings', 'Occupied and Vacant
Dwellings' and 'Characteristics of Dwellings' worksheets
Source
Estimates of Households & Dwellings: Table 4a
Estimates of Households & Dwellings: Table 6
Estimates of Households & Dwellings: Table 1
Estimates of Households & Dwellings: Table 2
Next update due
Jun-17
Jun-17
Jun-17
Jun-17
Link
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/housholds/household-estimates
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/housholds/household-estimates
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/housholds/household-estimates
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/housholds/household-estimates
Update the 'Total Household Projections', 'household Projections by
type', 'Household Proj by age of head' and 'Projected Average household
Source
Household Projections for Scotland: Tables 9, 11, 12, 13
Household Projections for Scotland: Tables 15, 16, 17, 18, 19
Household Projections for Scotland: Table 7
Household Projections for Scotland: Table 7
Next update due
Jan-19
Jan-19
Jan-19
Jan-19
Link
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/housholds/household-projections
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/housholds/household-projections
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/housholds/household-projections
http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/housholds/household-projections
Marriages & Civil Partnerships
Data
Civil Partnerships
Total Marriages
Marriages by 10yr age groups
Pop Projections
Data
Population projections
Components of change
Household & Dwellings
Data
Occupied and Vacant Dwellings
Characteristics of Dwellings
Household Estimates
Number of Dwellings
Household Projections
Data
Projected number of households
Head of household data
Projected household size
% change in household size
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