3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH1XWULWLRQ6RFLHW\±
7KH$XWKRUV
'2,316
1XWULWLRQ6RFLHW\
3163HUVSHFWLYHVLQWKHVWXG\RIIRRGLQWDNH-56SHDNPDQHWDO
&$%,QWHUQDWLRQDO3163URFHHGLQJVRI1XWULWLRQ6RFLHW\1XWULWLRQ6RFLHW\
'RHVERG\PDVVSOD\DUROHLQWKHUHJXODWLRQRIIRRGLQWDNH"
-RKQ56SHDNPDQ5-DPHV6WXEEVDQG-XOLDQ*0HUFHU
$EHUGHHQ&HQWUHIRU(QHUJ\5HJXODWLRQDQG2EHVLW\'LYLVLRQRI$SSHWLWHDQG(QHUJ\%DODQFH
5RZHWW5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWH$EHUGHHQ$%6%8.
3URIHVVRU-56SHDNPDQID[HPDLO-6SHDNPDQ#UULVDULDFXN
'HSDUWPHQWRI=RRORJ\8QLYHUVLW\RI$EHUGHHQ$EHUGHHQ$%7=8.
,WLVZLGHO\EHOLHYHGWKDWERG\IDWQHVVDQGKHQFHWRWDOERG\PDVVLVUHJXODWHGE\DOLSRVWDWLF
IHHGEDFNV\VWHP7KLVV\VWHPLVVXJJHVWHGWRLQYROYHDWOHDVWRQHSHULSKHUDOVLJQDOOLQJFRPSRXQG
ZKLFKVLJQDOVWRWKHEUDLQWKHFXUUHQWVL]HRIERG\IDWVWRUHV,QWKHEUDLQWKHOHYHORIWKHVLJQDOLV
FRPSDUHGZLWKDGHVLUDEOHWDUJHWOHYHODQGIRRGLQWDNHDQGHQHUJ\H[SHQGLWXUHDUHWKHQUHJXODWHG
WRHIIHFWFKDQJHVLQWKHVL]HRIERG\IDWVWRUHV7KHUHLVFRQVLGHUDEOHVXSSRUWIRUWKLVWKHRU\DW
VHYHUDO GLIIHUHQW OHYHOV RI LQYHVWLJDWLRQ 3DWWHUQV RI ERG\PDVV FKDQJH LQ VXEMHFWV IRUFHG LQWR
HQHUJ\ LPEDODQFH VHHP WR GHPRQVWUDWH KRPHRVWDVLV DQG ORQJWHUP FKDQJHV LQ ERG\ PDVV DUH
PLQRUFRPSDUHGZLWKWKHSRWHQWLDOFKDQJHVWKDWPLJKWUHVXOWIURPHQHUJ\LPEDODQFH0ROHFXODU
VWXGLHVRIVLJQDOOLQJFRPSRXQGVKDYHVXJJHVWHGDSXWDWLYHOLSRVWDWLFVLJQDOOHSWLQDQGDFRPSOH[
QHWZRUNRIGRZQVWUHDPSURFHVVLQJHYHQWVLQWKHEUDLQSRO\PRUSKLVPVRIZKLFKOHDGWRGLVUXSWLRQ
RI ERG\PDVV UHJXODWLRQ 7KLV QHWZRUN RI QHXURSHSWLGHV SURYLGHV D ULFK VHDP RI SRWHQWLDO
SKDUPDFHXWLFDO WDUJHWV IRU WKH FRQWURO RI REHVLW\ 'HVSLWH WKLV FRQVLVWHQW H[SODQDWLRQ IRU WKH
REVHUYHGSKHQRPHQDDWVHYHUDOGLIIHUHQWOHYHOVRIHQTXLU\WKHUHDUHDOWHUQDWLYHH[SODQDWLRQV,Q
WKH SUHVHQW SDSHU ZH H[SORUH WKH SRVVLELOLW\ WKDW WKH H[LVWHQFH RI OLSRVWDWLF UHJXODWLRQRI ERG\
IDWQHVV LV DQ LOOXVLRQ JHQHUDWHG E\ WKH OLQNV EHWZHHQ ERG\ PDVV DQG HQHUJ\ H[SHQGLWXUH DQG
UHVSRQVHVWRHQHUJ\LPEDODQFHWKDWDUHLQGHSHQGHQWRIERG\PDVV8VLQJFRPSXWHUEDVHGPRGHOV
RIWHPSRUDOSDWWHUQVLQHQHUJ\EDODQFHZHVKRZWKDWFRPPRQSDWWHUQVRIFKDQJHLQERG\PDVV
IROORZLQJSHUWXUEDWLRQFDQEHDGHTXDWHO\H[SODLQHGE\WKLVµQRQOLSRVWDWLF¶PRGHO7KLVPRGHOKDV
VRPHLPSRUWDQWLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUWKHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQVWKDWZHSODFHRQWKHPROHFXODUHYHQWVLQWKH
EUDLQDQGXOWLPDWHO\LQWKHVHDUFKIRUSKDUPDFHXWLFDODJHQWVIRUDOOHYLDWLRQRIREHVLW\
/LSRVWDW(QHUJ\KRPHRVWDVLV6HWSRLQW%RG\IDWQHVV/HSWLQ
$*53DJRXWLUHODWHGSHSWLGH&$57FRFDLQHDQGDPSKHWDPLQHUHJXODWHGWUDQVFULSW13<QHXURSHSWLGH<3$SK\VLFDODFWLYLW\1($7QRQSK\VLFDODFWLYLW\
7KHVLVERG\PDVVLVUHJXODWHGE\DµOLSRVWDWLF¶UHJXODWLRQ
V\VWHP
$ZKROHERG\SHUVSHFWLYH
,W KDV EHHQ REVHUYHG RQ PDQ\ RFFDVLRQV WKDW YHU\ VPDOO
DOWHUDWLRQVLQRXUHQHUJ\EDODQFHDWWKHZKROHERG\OHYHOLI
WKH\ DUH FRQWLQXHG RYHU ORQJ WLPH SHULRGV FDQ SRWHQWLDOO\
OHDG WR HQRUPRXV FKDQJHV LQ ERG\ PDVV IRU H[DPSOH VHH
:HLJOH 6W -HRU )RU H[DPSOH RQ DYHUDJH DQ
DSSOHFRQWDLQVDERXW N- NFDOV ,IRYHU D SHULRG RI
\HDUV D VXEMHFW DWH RQH DSSOH SHU G PRUH WKDQ WKHLU
HQHUJ\ H[SHQGLWXUH LW ZRXOG OHDG WR WKH DFFXPXODWLRQ RI
× × N- 0-HQHUJ\WKDWZRXOGEHVWRUHGDV
IDW 6LQFH NJ DGLSRVH WLVVXH FRQWDLQV DERXW J OLSLG
0-NJDQGWKXVFRQWDLQVDERXWÂ 0-HQHUJ\)RUEHV
WKH 0- H[FHVV DFFXPXODWHG HQHUJ\ ZRXOG EH
HTXLYDOHQWWRDSSUR[LPDWHO\ NJDGLSRVHWLVVXH-XVWHDWLQJ
RQH DSSOH SHU G LQ H[FHVV RI GDLO\ HQHUJ\ UHTXLUHPHQWV
ZRXOG OHDG WR WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI H[FHVVLYH REHVLW\ 7KLV
FDOFXODWLRQ LV HYHQ PRUH UHPDUNDEOH LI ZH FRQVLGHU WKDW D
W\SLFDO FDQG\ EDU FRQWDLQV DERXW N- NFDOV
(DWLQJ MXVW RQH FDQG\ EDU HYHU\ G DERYH H[SHQGLWXUH
ZRXOG OHDG WR WKH VDPH DFFUHWLRQ RI ERG\ IDWQHVV 7KHVH
FDOFXODWLRQV KDYH EHFRPH SDUW RI WKH HVWDEOLVKHG ZLVGRP
DERXW WKH FDXVHV RI REHVLW\ )RU H[DPSOH WKH &HQWHU IRU
'LVHDVH &RQWURO SXEOLF KHDOWK SHUVSHFWLYHV ZHEVLWH LQ WKH
86$ KWWSZZZFGFJRYJHQRPLFVLQIRSHUVSHFWLYHVILOHV
REHVNQRZKWP FRQWDLQV WKH VWDWHPHQW µ2YHUZHLJKW DQG
REHVLW\ FDQ UHVXOW IURP RQO\ D YHU\ VPDOO SRVLWLYH HQHUJ\
LQSXW LPEDODQFH RYHU D ORQJ SHULRG RI WLPH¶ DQG WKH 8.
$EEUHYLDWLRQV $*53DJRXWLUHODWHGSHSWLGH&$57FRFDLQHDQGDPSKHWDPLQHUHJXODWHGWUDQVFULSW13<QHXURSHSWLGH<3$SK\VLFDODFWLYLW\1($7
QRQSK\VLFDODFWLYLW\
&RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU 3URIHVVRU-56SHDNPDQID[HPDLO-6SHDNPDQ#UULVDULDFXN
-56SHDNPDQHWDO
SHULRG RI PRQWKV RI HQHUJ\ UHVWULFWLRQ +RZHYHU LQ DOO
FDVHV ZKHQ WKH SHULRG RI LQWHUYHQWLRQ KDG ILQLVKHG ERG\
PDVV LQFUHDVHG DJDLQ $Q REYLRXV LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI WKHVH
FKDQJHV LV WKDW ERG\ PDVV LV UHJXODWHG DW DERXW D OHYHO RI
NJ,QWHUYHQWLRQVWKDWWDNHWKHVXEMHFWEHORZWKLVFULWLFDO
OLPLW UHVXOW LQ D UHWXUQ WRZDUGV WKLV UHJXODWHG OHYHO RQFH
WKH LQWHUYHQWLRQLVRYHU,WDSSHDUVWKDW NJLVDWDUJHWRU
µVHWSRLQW¶DURXQGZKLFKPDVVLVUHJXODWHGLQWKLVVXEMHFW
7KHSDWWHUQRIFKDQJHVLQERG\PDVVRIWKLVVXEMHFWLVQRW
XQXVXDO2YHUVKRUWSHULRGVHQHUJ\LQWDNHDQGH[SHQGLWXUH
DUHRIWHQRXWRIEDODQFHUHVXOWLQJLQFKDQJHVLQRXUERG\PDVV
(OLDDLQFRQWUDVWZLWKWKHPXFKORQJHUWHUPEDODQFH
EHWZHHQLQWDNH DQG H[SHQGLWXUH )ULHGPDQ 'LHWDU\
LQWHUYHQWLRQVEDVHGRQHQHUJ\UHVWULFWLRQDUHZHOOHVWDEOLVKHG
WR EH HIIHFWLYH PHFKDQLVPV IRU UHGXFLQJ ERG\ PDVV
+RZHYHU RQFH WKH GLHWDU\ LQWHUYHQWLRQ KDV HQGHG D ODUJH
SHUFHQWDJHRIVXEMHFWVRIWHQ±UHWXUQWRWKHLURULJLQDO
ERG\PDVV*DUURZ:HLQWUDXE:DGGHQ
6LPLODU FRPSHQVDWRU\ UHVSRQVHV WR RYHUIHHGLQJ DUH DOVR
ZLGHO\REVHUYHG%RXFKDUGHWDO
7KH DSSDUHQW VWDELOLW\ RI ERG\ PDVV RYHU SURWUDFWHG
SHULRGV DQG LWV UHVLOLHQFH WR FKDQJH LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI WKH
DSSDUHQW HDVH ZLWK ZKLFK PDVVLYH FKDQJHV LQ ERG\ PDVV
FRXOGEHHIIHFWHGOHGWRWKHLGHDWKDWWKHUHLVDµOLSRVWDWLF¶
V\VWHP RI IRRG LQWDNH DQG HQHUJ\ H[SHQGLWXUH UHJXODWLRQ
ZKLFKVXVWDLQVRXUERG\PDVVDWDIL[HGDQGUHJXODWHGOHYHO
.HQQHG\ 7KH OLSRVWDWLF PRGHO VXJJHVWV WKDW RXU
ERG\SURGXFHVDVLJQDOWKDWLQGLFDWHVKRZPXFKIDWZHDUH
FDUU\LQJ7KHVLJQDOLVUHDGE\WKHEUDLQDQGFRPSDUHGZLWK
WKH WDUJHW OHYHO DW ZKLFK WKDW V\VWHP LV UHJXODWLQJ ERG\
IDWQHVV &KDQJHV DUH WKHQ HIIHFWHG LQ WKH OHYHOV RI IRRG
LQWDNH DQG HQHUJ\ H[SHQGLWXUH WR HLWKHU EXUQ RII H[FHVV
HQHUJ\ LI WKH ERG\ LV RYHU WKH WDUJHW RU WR HDW PRUH DQG
H[SHQG OHVV WKHUHE\ DFFXPXODWLQJ IDW LI WKH ERG\ LV EHORZ
WDUJHW2XUERGLHVDUHFOHDUO\QRWRQO\FRPSRVHGRIDGLSRVH
WLVVXH DQG LW ZDV QRW ORQJ EHIRUH RWKHU DXWKRUV VXJJHVWHG
WKDW VLPLODU UHJXODWRU\ V\VWHPV H[LVW FRQWUROOLQJ IRU
H[DPSOHRXUERG\SURWHLQFRQWHQW0HOOLQNRIIHWDO
0HGLFDO 5HVHDUFK &RXQFLO ZHEVLWH KWWSZZZQLPUPUF
DFXN0LOO+LOO(VVD\VREKWPFRQWDLQVDPRUHH[SOLFLW
VWDWHPHQWµ)DWSHRSOHKDYHRYHUDSHULRGRIWLPHHDWHQWRR
PXFKUHODWLYHWRWKHLUQHHGV(YHQDVOLJKWVXVWDLQHGH[FHVV
LQGDLO\HQHUJ\LQWDNHVXFKDVWKHFDORULHFRQWHQWRIDVLQJOH
FKRFRODWHELVFXLWZLOOUHVXOWLQRQHNLORJUDPZHLJKWJDLQLQ
D\HDU¶
,I ZH WDNH DV WKH VWDUWLQJ SRLQW IRU WKLV FDOFXODWLRQ D
VXEMHFW ZHLJKLQJ NJ ZLWK D GDLO\ HQHUJ\ H[SHQGLWXUH RI
DERXW 0- WKHQ WKH H[WHQW RI LPEDODQFH UHIOHFWHG E\ DQ
H[WUD DSSOH HYHU\ GD\ N- LV DERXW <HW LW LV H[WUHPHO\ XQXVXDO IRU D VXEMHFW DW DJH \HDUV
ZHLJKLQJ NJWR ZHLJK LQ DW NJ\HDUV ODWHU ZKHQ
WKH\DUHDJHG\HDUVKDYLQJDFKLHYHGWKHDFFXPXODWLRQRI
NJ DGLSRVH WLVVXH 7KLV VLWXDWLRQ VXJJHVWV WKDW QRUPDOO\
WKHEDODQFHEHWZHHQHQHUJ\H[SHQGLWXUHDQG HQHUJ\LQWDNH
RYHU YHU\ ORQJ WLPH SHULRGV LV H[WUHPHO\ SUHFLVH ZLWK WKH
GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ H[SHQGLWXUH DQG LQWDNH URXWLQHO\
DPRXQWLQJ WR RQO\ Â RI WKH WRWDO RI HLWKHU LQWDNH RU
H[SHQGLWXUHRYHU\HDUV:HLJOH)ULHGPDQ
7KH LPSOLFDWLRQ LV WKDW RXU IRRG LQWDNH PXVW EH XQGHU
UHJXODWHGFRQWUROOLQNHGWRWKHOHYHOVRIHQHUJ\H[SHQGLWXUH
DQGERG\PDVVIRUH[DPSOHVHH)ULHGPDQ+DODDV
)ULHGPDQ
,QIDFWE\ORRNLQJPXFKPRUHFORVHO\DWWKHSDWWHUQVRI
YDULDWLRQ LQ ERG\ PDVV RYHU WLPH DQG WKHLU UHVSRQVHV WR
LQWHUYHQWLRQV WKH LPSUHVVLRQ WKDW HQHUJ\ EDODQFH LV D
UHJXODWHG SKHQRPHQRQ DQG WKDW ERG\ PDVV SOD\V D FOHDU
UROH LQ WKLV UHJXODWLRQ LV FRQVLGHUDEO\ VWUHQJWKHQHG 7DNH
IRUH[DPSOHZHHNO\UHFRUGVRIERG\PDVVRYHUDÂ\HDU
SHULRG )LJ IRU D VLQJOH VXEMHFW 'XULQJ WKLV WLPH WKH
VXEMHFWPDGHVHYHQFRQVFLRXVLQWHUYHQWLRQVWRUHGXFHERG\
PDVV 7KHVH LQWHUYHQWLRQV LQYROYHG ILYH HQHUJ\UHVWULFWHG
GLHWV RQH SHULRG RI H[HUFLVH DQG RQH SHULRG RI FRPELQHG
H[HUFLVH DQG GLHWLQJ 7KH LQWHUYHQWLRQV YDULHG LQ GXUDWLRQ
IURP PRQWKV WR PRQWKV DQG LQ DOO WKHVH FDVHV WKH
LQWHUYHQWLRQVSURGXFHGVXEVWDQWLDOZHLJKWORVV,QWKHPRVW
GUDPDWLFFDVHERG\PDVVZDVUHGXFHGE\DERXWRYHUD
Interventions
CR
CR
1996
1997
E
CRE
CR
CR
CR
2000
2001
76
Body mass (kg)
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
500
19986
1000
1999
1500
2000
2002
2500
Time period (d; Jan 1996 is day 1)
)LJ 3DWWHUQVRIYDULDWLRQLQERG\PDVVRIDVLQJOHPDOHVXEMHFWPHDVXUHGDOPRVWZHHNO\RYHUDSHULRGRIÂ\HDUV'XULQJWKLVWLPHSHULRG
WKHVXEMHFWHQJDJHGLQVHYHQLQWHUYHQWLRQVDLPLQJWRUHGXFHERG\PDVVZKLFKLQFOXGHGILYHSHULRGVRIHQHUJ\UHVWULFWLRQ&5RQHSHULRGRI
H[HUFLVH(DQGRQHSHULRGRIFRPELQHGHQHUJ\UHVWULFWLRQDQGH[HUFLVH&5(,QDOOFDVHVDWWKHFHVVDWLRQRIWKHLQWHUYHQWLRQERG\PDVV
LQFUHDVHGDJDLQWRZDUGVWKHSUHLQWHUYHQWLRQOHYHOV%0, NJPÂÂ%0, NJPÂÂÂÂ%0, NJP
3HUVSHFWLYHVLQWKHVWXG\RIIRRGLQWDNH
:KHWKHU ZH KDYH PXOWLSOH UHJXODWRU\ V\VWHPV RU RQO\ D
VLQJOH V\VWHP WKDW FRQWUROV WKH SULPDU\ OHYHOV RI D VLQJOH
ERG\ FRPSRQHQW DQG SDUWLWLRQLQJ RI UHVRXUFHV EHWZHHQ
FRPSDUWPHQWV LV XQFHUWDLQ 0RVW UHFHQW WUHDWPHQWV RI WKH
UROH RI ERG\ PDVV LQ WKH UHJXODWLRQ RI IRRG LQWDNH KDYH
WHQGHG WR EOXU WKH GLVWLQFWLRQ EHWZHHQ ERG\ IDW DQG WRWDO
ERG\ PDVV IRU H[DPSOH VHH &DPSILHOG HW DO )ULHGPDQ+DODDV)ULHGPDQ
6WXGLHV RI ZKROHDQLPDO HQHUJ\ EDODQFH LQ DQLPDO
PRGHOVKDYHUHLQIRUFHGWKHYLHZWKDWERG\PDVVRUIDWQHVVLV
UHJXODWHGE\DOLSRVWDWLFVLJQDOOLQJPHFKDQLVP,QODERUDWRU\
URGHQWV WKH UHFRYHU\ UHVSRQVH IROORZLQJ H[SHULPHQWDOO\
LQGXFHG FKDQJHV LQ ERG\ PDVV LV UHDGLO\ DSSDUHQW ZLWK
DQLPDOVUHWXUQLQJWRDOHYHOWKDWLVDSSURSULDWHIRUWKHLUDJH
VWDJHRIGHYHORSPHQWDQGRUHQYLURQPHQWDIWHUDQLPSRVHG
SHUWXUEDWLRQ+HQFHUDWVVXEMHFWHGWRDSHULRGRIIRRGGHSUL
YDWLRQ RU UHVWULFWLRQ RU WR LPSRVHG RYHUIHHGLQJ H[SUHVV D
FRPSHQVDWRU\K\SHURUK\SRSKDJLDRQUHWXUQWRDGOLELWXP
IHHGLQJXQWLOWKH\UHWXUQWRDERG\PDVVWKDWLVVLPLODUWRWKDW
RIFRQWUROVIHHGLQJIUHHO\WKURXJKRXW.HHVH\+LUYRQHQ
&OHDUO\WKHVHFRPSHQVDWRU\UHVSRQVHVDUHDFWLYDWHG
WRµGHIHQG¶ERG\PDVVDWLWVH[LVWLQJOHYHORUWRUHVWRUHLWWR
WKDWOHYHORQFHFRQGLWLRQVDOORZ7KLVDELOLW\WRGHIHQGERG\
PDVV RU ERG\ FRPSRVLWLRQ DJDLQVW HQHUJ\ LPEDODQFH E\
LQGXFWLRQRIFRPSHQVDWRU\PHFKDQLVPVLVFOHDUHYLGHQFHRI
UHJXODWRU\FDSDELOLW\7KLVSKHQRPHQRQVXJJHVWVWKDWWKHUH
LVFHQWUDOHQFRGLQJRIDµWDUJHW¶ERG\PDVV
7KHUHLVIXUWKHUH[SHULPHQWDOHYLGHQFHWKDWSURJUDPPHG
DGMXVWPHQWVFDQEHPDGHWRWKHOHYHORIERG\PDVVWKDWZLOO
EH GHIHQGHG 7KH F\FOHV RI ERG\ PDVV DQG FRPSRVLWLRQ
H[KLELWHGE\VHDVRQDOPDPPDOV0HUFHU0RUJDQ
0HUFHU DUH D SDUWLFXODUO\ JRRG H[DPSOH 7KHVH
F\FOHV DUHRIWHQFXHGIURPDVLQJOHHQYLURQPHQWDOYDULDEOH
SKRWRSHULRGDQGKDYHHYROYHGDVSDUWRIDEDWWHU\RIDGDS
WDWLRQVWKDWHQKDQFHVXUYLYDOGXULQJZLQWHULQWHPSHUDWHDQG
DUFWLF ODWLWXGHV 0HUFHU 7KH DELOLW\ WR SURJUDPPH
FKDQJHV LQ ERG\ PDVV DQG FRPSRVLWLRQ DSSHDUV WKHUHIRUH
WREHVXSHULPSRVHGRQWKHFDSDFLW\WRGHIHQGDQDSSURSULDWH
ERG\PDVVDJDLQVWHQHUJ\GHILFLWRUH[FHVV7KHVHGLIIHUHQW
OHYHOV RI UHJXODWLRQ DUH ZHOO LOOXVWUDWHG E\ WKH VHDVRQDO
6LEHULDQ KDPVWHU $GXOW PDOH KDPVWHUV UHGXFH WKHLU ERG\
PDVV E\ DSSUR[LPDWHO\ IROORZLQJ WUDQVIHU IURP D
VXPPHUOLNH ORQJGD\ SKRWRSHULRG WR D ZLQWHUOLNH VKRUW
GD\ SKRWRSHULRG /LPLWLQJ WKH VXSSO\ RI IRRG GXULQJ VKRUW
GD\VDFFHOHUDWHVWKHUDWHDWZKLFKPDVVLVORVW:KHQIRRG
UHVWULFWLRQLVOLIWHGERG\PDVVLQFUHDVHVEXWRQO\WRWKHSRLQW
ZKHUH LW DSSUR[LPDWHV WR WKH GHFOLQLQJ PDVV RI FRQWURO
DQLPDOV SURYLGHG ZLWK XQOLPLWHG IRRG WKURXJKRXW 7KH
UHERXQGLQERG\PDVVLVGULYHQE\DSHULRGRIK\SHUSKDJLD
0HUFHUHWDO'XULQJWKLVSHULRGWKHDQLPDOVDFWXDOO\
LQFUHDVHLQERG\PDVV7KHV\VWHPWKHUHIRUHEHKDYHVLQD
PDQQHUFRQVLVWHQWZLWKDVHDVRQDOWLPHNHHSLQJPHFKDQLVP
FRQWLQXLQJ WR DGMXVW WKH HQFRGHG WDUJHW ERG\ PDVV HYHQ
ZKHQ DQLPDOV DUH SUHYHQWHG IURP PDLQWDLQLQJ WKLV GHVLUHG
ERG\PDVV7KHVHDQLPDOVDUHDSSDUHQWO\DEOHWRFRQWLQXDOO\
DGMXVWWKHERG\PDVVWKDWZLOOEHGHIHQGHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHLU
SKRWRSHULRGLFKLVWRU\)RRGUHVWULFWLRQVXSHULPSRVHGRQWKH
PDVV UHGXFWLRQ LQ VHDVRQDO PDPPDOV ILUVW UHSRUWHG LQ WKH
KDPVWHU DERXW \HDUV DJR 6WHLQOHFKQHU HW DO SURYLGHV VRPH RI WKH EHVW HYLGHQFH WKDW PDPPDOV GLUHFWO\
UHJXODWHWKHLUERG\PDVV
$SK\VLRORJLFDOSHUVSHFWLYH
)ROORZLQJPRGLILFDWLRQRIWKHVWHUHRWDFWLFIUDPHIRUXVHLQ
WKHUDW&ODUNPDQ\VWXGLHVZHUHFDUULHGRXWZKLFK
LQYROYHG OHVLRQLQJ GLIIHUHQW DUHDV RI WKH EUDLQV RI VPDOO
URGHQWVDQGH[DPLQLQJWKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIVXFKOHVLRQVIRU
EHKDYLRXUWRWU\WRSLHFHWRJHWKHUWKHIXQFWLRQDODQDWRP\RI
WKH EUDLQ ,Q D QRZ FODVVLF H[SHULPHQW +HWKULQJWRQ 5DQVRQ IRXQG WKDW GHVWUXFWLRQ RI WKH YHQWUR
PHGLDO K\SRWKDODPXV UHVXOWHG LQ D K\SHUSKDJLF V\QGURPH
ZKHUH WKH UDWV EHFDPH HQRUPRXVO\ REHVH ,Q FRQWUDVW
HOHFWULFDOO\ VWLPXODWLQJ WKH VDPH DUHD UHVXOWHG LQ D
VXSSUHVVLRQ RI IRRG LQWDNH 0DUJXOHV 2OGV 7KLV
ILQGLQJOHGWRWKHQRWLRQWKDWWKHYHQWURPHGLDOK\SRWKDODPXV
PLJKWEHDµVDWLHW\¶FHQWUHUHVSRQVLEOHIRULQKLELWLQJIHHGLQJ
DQG WKDW NQRFNLQJ LW RXW UHVXOWHG LQ WKH DEROLWLRQ RI VXFK
LQKLELWLRQ ,Q FRQWUDVW OHVLRQV LQ WKH ODWHUDO K\SRWKDODPXV
/+KDGWKHRSSRVLWHHIIHFW$QQDQG%UREHFNWR
WKHH[WHQWWKDWVRPHDQLPDOVOHVLRQHGLQWKLVZD\PD\VWDUYH
WRGHDWKLIQRW WXEHIHG0RUHRYHUHOHFWULFDOVWLPXODWLRQRI
WKH /+ JHQHUDOO\ VWLPXODWHV IHHGLQJ $QGHUVVRQ :\UZLFND &RQVHTXHQWO\ IHHGLQJ EHKDYLRXU ZDV
VXJJHVWHG WR UHIOHFW WKH LQWHUSOD\ RI DFWLYLW\ LQ WKH /+
VZLWFKLQJ IHHGLQJ RQ DQG DFWLYLW\ LQ WKH YHQWURPHGLDO
K\SRWKDODPXV VZLWFKLQJ LW RII ,QWHUHVWLQJO\ DQLPDOV ZLWK
/+ OHVLRQV WKDW GR UHFRYHU VRPH IHHGLQJ EHKDYLRXU
IROORZLQJ VXUJHU\ GR QRW DGMXVW WKHLU ERG\ PDVVHV WR WKH
VDPHOHYHOVDVFRQWURODQLPDOVEXWUHJXODWHWKHPDWDORZHU
OHYHO 3RZOH\ .HHVH\ OHDGLQJ WKHVH DXWKRUV WR
VXJJHVW WKDW WKH /+ QRW RQO\ FRQWDLQV WKH IHHGLQJ RQVHW
FHQWUHEXWWKDWLWLVDOVRWKHVHDWRIWKHERG\PDVVVHWSRLQW
$VZRUNGHYHORSHGLQWKLVDUHDDWWHPSWLQJWRWLHGRZQWKH
HIIHFWVWRVPDOOHUDQGVPDOOHUDUHDVRIWKHK\SRWKDODPXVWKH
FUXGH QDWXUH RI WKH RULJLQDO OHVLRQLQJ VWXGLHV EHFDPH
DSSDUHQW ,W ZDV FOHDU WKDW WKH VLPSOH VDWLHW\ IHHGLQJ DQG
ERG\PDVV UHJXODWLRQ FHQWUHV ORFDWHG LQ WKH YHQWURPHGLDO
K\SRWKDODPXV DQG /+ UHVSHFWLYHO\ ZHUH DQ DUWHIDFW RI
OHVLRQLQJ QRW RQO\ WKHVH DUHDV EXW DGMDFHQW UHJLRQV DQG LQ
SDUWLFXODUGDPDJHWRILEUHVSDVVLQJDGMDFHQWWRWKHOHVLRQHG
DUHDV +RHEHO 7HLWHOEDXP +HQFH ZKLOH WKH
K\SRWKDODPXV VHHPHG WR EH LPSRUWDQW IRU UHJXODWLRQ RI
IHHGLQJ EHKDYLRXU WKH SUHFLVH ORFDWLRQV RI WKH NH\ FRQWURO
QXFOHLZDVQRWPDGHDSSDUHQWE\WKHVHVWXGLHV
$OWKRXJK SK\VLFDO OHVLRQLQJ VWXGLHV LQ WKH EUDLQ KDG
SURYHG XQDEOH WR UHVROYH WKH SUHFLVH ORFDWLRQ RI FRQWURO
FHQWUHV IRU IHHGLQJ EHKDYLRXU LQFUHDVLQJ QXPEHUV RI
DQLPDOV ZLWK JHQHWLF OHVLRQV ZHUH EHLQJ SURGXFHG E\ WKH
PDMRU PRXVH DQG UDW EUHHGLQJ FHQWUHV LQ WKH 86$ DQG
(XURSH3HUKDSVWKHPRVWIDPRXVRIWKHVHPXWDQWPLFHZHUH
WKHREHVHREREDQGWKH GLDEHWLF'E'EPLFHSURGXFHG
E\WKH-DFNVRQ/DERUDWRULHV%DU+DUERU0(86$ERWK
RI ZKLFK KDG UHFHVVLYH 0HQGHOLDQ LQKHULWHG PXWDWLRQV
VXJJHVWLYH RI VLQJOH JHQH GHIHFWV &ROHPDQ +RPR]\JRXV UHFHVVLYHV IRU ERWK WKHVH PRXVH VWUDLQV HDW
YRUDFLRXVO\IURPELUWKDQGE\ZHHNVRIDJHZHLJKDERXW
WZLFH WKHLU KHWHUR]\JRXV DQG KRPR]\JRXV GRPLQDQW
OLWWHUPDWHV
,Q WKH ODWH V DQG HDUO\ V D VHULHV RI HOHJDQW
H[SHULPHQWVZHUHFDUULHGRXWRQWKHREREDQG'E'EPLFH
WR WU\ WR HOXFLGDWH WKH QDWXUH RI WKH JHQHWLF GHIHFWV WKH\
KDUERXUHG &ROHPDQ 7KHVH SDUDELRVLV H[SHULPHQWV
-56SHDNPDQHWDO
LQYROYHG VXUJLFDOO\ RSHUDWLQJ RQ SDLUV RI PLFH WR MRLQ
WRJHWKHUWKHLU EORRG V\VWHPV+HQFHDQ\FLUFXODWLQJIDFWRU
LQWKHEORRGRIRQHDQLPDOZRXOGEHSDVVHGWRWKHRWKHUDQG
YLFHYHUVD:KHQWKHIDWREREPRXVHZDVMRLQHGWRJHWKHULQ
SDUDELRVLV ZLWK D OHDQ ZLOGW\SH PRXVH WKH RERE PRXVH
VWDUWHG WR HDW OHVV IRRG DQG WR ORVH ERG\ PDVV +RZHYHU
ZKHQDIDW'E'EPRXVHZDVMRLQHGLQSDUDELRVLVWRDOHDQ
ZLOGW\SH PRXVH VRPHWKLQJ UDGLFDOO\ GLIIHUHQW KDSSHQHG
7KH'E'EPRXVHZDVXQDIIHFWHGEXWWKHZLOGW\SHPRXVH
VWDUWHGWRHDWOHVVIRRGDQGHYHQWXDOO\LWGLHGRIVWDUYDWLRQ
-RLQLQJWRJHWKHUREREDQG'E'EPLFHKDGDVLPLODUUHVXOW
WRMRLQLQJXSREREPLFHWROHDQZLOGW\SHPLFH7KHRERE
PRXVHUHGXFHGLWVIRRGLQWDNHDQGVWDUWHGWRORVHPDVVEXW
WKH 'E'E PRXVH FRQWLQXHG HDWLQJ DQG UHPDLQHG IDW
&ROHPDQ
7KHVH H[SHULPHQWV SURYLGHG VWURQJ VXSSRUW IRU WKH
OLSRVWDWLF ERG\ZHLJKWUHJXODWLRQ PRGHO .HQQHG\ ,WZDVFOHDUWKDWWKHREREPRXVHKDGDGHIHFWLQWKHVLJQDO
WHOOLQJ LW KRZ IDW LW ZDV ,Q WKH DEVHQFH RI WKLV VLJQDO WKH
PLFHµWKLQN¶WKH\DUHGDQJHURXVO\WKLQUHODWLYHWRWKHLUWDUJHW
DQG WKHUHIRUH HOHYDWH WKHLU IRRG LQWDNH DQG VXSSUHVV WKHLU
PHWDEROLVP DQG ERG\ WHPSHUDWXUH 0DIIHLHW DO VR
WKDW WKHLU ERG\ PDVV LQFUHDVHV WR PHHW WKH WDUJHW ,Q
SDUDELRVLVZLWKZLOGW\SHPLFHWKH\VWDUWWRJHWDVLJQDOIURP
WKH IDW LQ WKH ERG\ RI WKH OHDQ PRXVH DQG WKH\ VXSSUHVV
WKHLU IRRG LQWDNH DQG QRUPDOLVH WKHLU ERG\ WHPSHUDWXUHV
6LQFH WKLV UHVSRQVH DOVR RFFXUV ZKHQ RERE PLFH DUH LQ
SDUDELRVLV ZLWK 'E'E PLFH WKH 'E'E PXWDWLRQ FDQQRW
DOVR EH D SUREOHP ZLWK WKH VLJQDO 7KH PXWDWLRQ LQ'E'E
PLFHPXVWDFWXDOO\EHDSUREOHPZLWKUHDGLQJWKHVLJQDOLQ
WKHEUDLQ+HQFHWKH\DOVRµWKLQN¶WKH\DUHGDQJHURXVO\WKLQ
DQG HIIHFW FKDQJHV LQ WKHLU IRRG LQWDNH DQG H[SHQGLWXUH WR
EULQJ WKHLU IDWQHVV XS WR WDUJHW :KHQ WKH\ DUH SODFHG LQ
SDUDELRVLV ZLWK ZLOGW\SH PLFH WKHUH LV QR HIIHFW RQ WKHLU
IRRG LQWDNH EHFDXVH WKH\ DUH DOUHDG\ SURGXFLQJ ORWV RI WKH
VLJQDOOLQJIDFWRUIURPWKHLUDGLSRVHWLVVXHLWMXVWLVQRWEHLQJ
UHDGVRJHWWLQJPRUHVLJQDOIURPWKHZLOGW\SHPRXVHKDV
QR HIIHFW +RZHYHU IRU WKH ZLOGW\SH PRXVH LW LV PRUH
GHYDVWDWLQJ EHFDXVH LQ SDUDELRVLV ZLWK 'E'E LW JHWV D
PDVVLYHVLJQDOIURPWKHIDWVWRUHVRIWKH'E'EDQLPDODQG
WKLQNLQJ LW LV PDVVLYHO\ RYHU WDUJHW LW VKXWV GRZQ LWV IRRG
LQWDNH WR WU\ WR ORVH ZHLJKW $V WKH 'E'E SDUWQHU
NHHSV HDWLQJ KRZHYHU WKHUH LV DOZD\V D VLJQDO WHOOLQJ WKH
ZLOGW\SH PRXVH QRW WR HDW DQG HYHQWXDOO\ LW GLHV RI
VWDUYDWLRQ
$PROHFXODUELRORJ\SHUVSHFWLYH
/DWH LQ WKH PXWDWLRQ FDXVLQJ WKH RERE PRXVH ZDV
IRXQG WR EH D VLQJOH EDVH PXWDWLRQ LQ D JHQH ORFDWHG RQ
FKURPRVRPH RI WKH PRXVH DQG PDSSHG WR FKURPRVRPH
RI PDQ =KDQJ HW DO 7KH FRQVHTXHQFH RI WKLV
PXWDWLRQ ZDV WKDW LQVWHDG RI WKH JHQH VLJQDOOLQJ WKH
SURGXFWLRQ RI D IXOOOHQJWK DPLQR DFLG SURWHLQ WKHUH
ZDV D SUHPDWXUH VWRS FRGRQ DQG D PXFK VKRUWHU QRQ
IXQFWLRQDO SURWHLQ ZDV SURGXFHG 7KH LQWDFW SURWHLQ ZDV
FDOOHGµOHSWLQ¶IURPWKH*UHHNURRWOHSWRVPHDQLQJµWKLQ¶DV
WKHDQLPDOVWKDWKDGIXOOOHQJWKOHSWLQZHUHOHDQ/HSWLQZDV
VKRZQWREHSURGXFHGH[FOXVLYHO\LQDGLSRVHWLVVXH=KDQJ
HW DO DV PLJKW EH DQWLFLSDWHG WR EH WKH FDVH IRU D
FRPSRXQGWKDWDFWHGDVDOLSRVWDWLFVLJQDORIWKHVL]HRIERG\
IDW VWRUHV VXEVHTXHQW ZRUN KDV VKRZQ RWKHU VLWHV RI
SURGXFWLRQ DW PXFK ORZHU OHYHOV LQ GHYHORSLQJ IRHWXVHV
WKH SODFHQWD DQG WKH VWRPDFK 5HFRPELQDQW OHSWLQ ZKHQ
LQMHFWHG LQWR WKH RERE PRXVH FDXVHG WKH DQLPDOV WR
GUDPDWLFDOO\ GHFOLQH LQ ERG\ PDVV +DODDV HW DO 3HOOH\PRXQWHUHWDO:HLJOHHWDO)ULHGPDQ
+DODDV DQG QRUPDOLVHG PDQ\ RWKHU IHDWXUHV RI WKH
JHQHWLF SDWKRORJ\ LQFOXGLQJ WKH DELOLW\ WR VH[XDOO\ PDWXUH
DQG EUHHG &KHKDE HW DO 3HUKDSV RI HYHQ JUHDWHU
LQWHUHVWZDVWKHIDFWWKDWZLOGW\SHPLFHLQMHFWHGZLWKOHSWLQ
DOVRUHGXFHGWKHLUERG\ZHLJKWDVLWPLJKWEHH[SHFWHGWKDW
WKH\ZRXOGLIWKH\ZHUHUHFHLYLQJDQHUURQHRXVVLJQDODERXW
WKHVL]HRIWKHLUERG\IDWVWRUHV+DODDVHWDO
7KH OHSWLQ UHFHSWRU 7DUWDJOLD HW DO LV D FODVV F\WRNLQHUHFHSWRUWKDWH[LVWVDVVHYHUDOVSOLFHYDULDQWV7KH
ORQJIRUPRIWKHUHFHSWRUFRQWDLQVDQLQWUDFHOOXODUVLJQDOOLQJ
GRPDLQ WKDW LV PLVVLQJ IURP WKH VKRUW IRUP 5HFHSWRU
ORFDOLVDWLRQVWXGLHVKDYHUHYHDOHGWKDWWKHORQJIRUPRIWKH
OHSWLQ UHFHSWRU LV IRXQG LQ ODUJH TXDQWLWLHV LQ WKH DUFXDWH
QXFOHXVRIWKHK\SRWKDODPXV0HUFHUHWDOF(QHUJ\
EDODQFHUHODWHG FLUFXLWV ZLWKLQ WKH FHQWUDO QHUYRXV V\VWHP
LQYROYH ERWK ELRDPLQHV DQG QHXURSHSWLGHV DQG WKHLU
UHVSHFWLYH UHFHSWRUV /DWHO\ PRVW DWWHQWLRQ KDV EHHQ
IRFXVHG RQ WKH QHXURSHSWLGH V\VWHPV ZLWK WKHLU IXQFWLRQ
DQG UHJXODWLRQ LQ D QXPEHU RI NH\ K\SRWKDODPLF QXFOHL
EHLQJ D VSHFLILF IRFXV IRU PDQ\ UHVHDUFK JURXSV 7KH
K\SRWKDODPLFQHXURSHSWLGHVWKDWDUHFRQFHUQHGZLWKHQHUJ\
KRPHRVWDVLV FDQ EH GLYLGHG LQWR WZR FDWHJRULHV 6FKZDUW]
HW DO 7KHVH FDWHJRULHV DUH RUH[LJHQLF RU
DQDEROLF SHSWLGHV VXFK DV QHXURSHSWLGH < 13< DQG
DJRXWLUHODWHGSHSWLGH$*532OOPDQQHWDOZKLFK
LQFUHDVH IRRG LQWDNH UHGXFH HQHUJ\ H[SHQGLWXUH DQG JLYH
ULVH WR SRVLWLYH HQHUJ\ EDODQFH DQG ZHLJKW JDLQ ZKHQ
LQMHFWHG LQWR WKH EUDLQ DQRUH[LJHQLF RU FDWDEROLF
SHSWLGHV VXFK DV αPHODQRF\WHVWLPXODWLQJ KRUPRQH
α06+ DQG FRFDLQH DQG DPSKHWDPLQHUHJXODWHG WUDQV
FULSW&$57.ULVWHQVHQHWDOWKDWKDYHWKHRSSRVLWH
HIIHFWRQHDFKVLGHRIWKHHQHUJ\EDODQFHHTXDWLRQOHDGLQJ
WR QHJDWLYH HQHUJ\ EDODQFH 5HSHDWHG DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ RI
13< IRU H[DPSOH OHDGV WR HOHYDWHG IRRG LQWDNH DQG
LQFUHDVHG ERG\ PDVV 6WDQOH\ HW DO ZKHUHDV 13<
DQG $*53 P51$ DUH PDVVLYHO\ XS UHJXODWHG XQGHU
FRQGLWLRQVRILPSRVHGQHJDWLYHHQHUJ\EDODQFHDQGUHGXFHG
ERG\PDVV6FKZDUW]HWDO0L]XQR0REEV
7KHVH FKDQJHV PD\ XQGHUSLQ WKH UHWXUQ WR µQRUPDO¶ ERG\
PDVVZKHQWKHHQHUJ\UHVWULFWLRQLVOLIWHG
6LQFH WKH ODQGPDUN FORQLQJ RI WKH OHSWLQ JHQH QHZ
FDQGLGDWHHQHUJ\EDODQFHUHODWHGJHQHVKDYHEHHQHPHUJLQJ
DW D UDWH RI VHYHUDO SHU \HDU 6RPH RI WKHVH VLJQDOOLQJ
V\VWHPVVXFKDVWKHRUH[LQVGH/HFFDHWDO6DNXUDL
HW DO ZHUH SUHYLRXVO\ XQNQRZQ ,Q RWKHU FDVHV
SHSWLGHVZLWKZHOOHVWDEOLVKHGDFWLYLW\LQRWKHUSK\VLRORJLFDO
V\VWHPVVXFKDVJOXFDJRQOLNHSHSWLGH7XUWRQHWDO
RU PHODQLQFRQFHQWUDWLQJ KRUPRQH 4X HW DO KDYH
DOVR EHHQ GHPRQVWUDWHG WR DIIHFW HQHUJ\ KRPHRVWDVLV ,W LV
QRZDSSDUHQWWKDWDPDMRUWDUJHWIRUOHSWLQIHHGEDFNLQWRWKH
K\SRWKDODPLF HQHUJ\ EDODQFH FLUFXLWU\ LV WKH K\SRWKDODPLF
DUFXDWH QXFOHXV 0HUFHU HW DO D :LWKLQ WKH DUFXDWH
QXFOHXV WKHUH DUH GLVFUHWH SRSXODWLRQV RI QHXURQHV RQH RI
ZKLFKH[SUHVVHVERWKWKHDQDEROLFSHSWLGHV13<DQG$*53
%UREHUJHUHWDO+DKQHWDO&KHQHWDO
3HUVSHFWLYHVLQWKHVWXG\RIIRRGLQWDNH
ZKLOHDQRWKHUH[SUHVVHVWKHFDWDEROLFJHQHV&$57DQGSUR
RSLRPHODQRFRUWLQ(OLDVHWDOWKHODWWHUEHLQJWUDQV
ODWHG LQWR WKH SURRSLRPHODQRFRUWLQ SUHFXUVRU WKDW LV
VXEVHTXHQWO\SURFHVVHGWRIRUPα06+*HQHH[SUHVVLRQRI
13<LQFUHDVHVZKHQERG\IDWGHFOLQHV.DOUDHWDODQG
LV VWLPXODWHG LQ WKH RERE PRXVH ODFNLQJ OHSWLQ :LOGLQJ
HW DO ZKLOH WUDQVJHQLF NQRFNRXW RI 13< UHVXOWV LQ
DWWHQXDWLRQ RI WKH REHVH SKHQRW\SH LQ WKH RERE PRXVH
(ULFNVRQHWDO 7KHLQWHUDFWLRQ RI OHSWLQZLWK 13<
DQG RWKHU QHXURSHSWLGH V\VWHPV LV DOPRVW FHUWDLQO\ GLUHFW
VLQFH ERWK 13<±$*53 DQG SURRSLRPHODQRFRUWLQ±&$57
QHXURQHVLQWKHDUFXDWHQXFOHXVDOVRH[SUHVVWKHORQJIRUP
OHSWLQUHFHSWRUP51$0HUFHUHWDOE&KHXQJHWDO
α06+ DQG $*53 DUH FRPSRQHQWV RI WKH PHODQR
FRUWLQ V\VWHP WKDW FXOPLQDWHV DW WKH K\SRWKDODPLF
PHODQRFRUWLQUHFHSWRUVWKHDFWLYLW\RIα06+DWWKHPHODQR
FRUWLQ UHFHSWRU DQG WKH PHODQRFRUWLQ UHFHSWRU LV
DQWDJRQLVHG E\ $*53 2OOPDQQ HW DO *DQW] HW DO
7KH LPSRUWDQFH RI WKH OHSWLQ±PHODQRFRUWLQ SDWKZD\ LQ
WKHPDLQWHQDQFHRIDQRUPDOERG\ZHLJKWLVHPSKDVLVHGE\
WKHFOXVWHULQJ RIPRUELGO\REHVHURGHQWVWUDLQV DURXQGWKLV
SDWKZD\ %XOWPDQ HW DO 0LOOHU HW DO =KDQJ
HW DO 7DUWDJOLD HW DO <DVZHQ HW DO DV
WKHFRQVHTXHQFHRIHLWKHUVSRQWDQHRXVPXWDWLRQRUWDUJHWHG
WUDQVJHQLFPDQLSXODWLRQ7KDWWKHVHJHQHVDUHDOVRFULWLFDOWR
UHJXODWLRQRIERG\PDVVLQKXPDQVXEMHFWVLVGHPRQVWUDWHG
E\ WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI VLPLODU ORVV RI IXQFWLRQ PXWDWLRQV WR
WKH OHSWLQ 0RQWDJXH HW DO )DURRTL HW DO OHSWLQUHFHSWRU&OHPHQWHWDOSURRSLRPHODQRFRUWLQ
.UXGH HW DO DQG PHODQRFRUWLQ UHFHSWRU JHQHV
+LQQH\HWDO9DLVVHHWDO<HRHWDOLQ
WKHKXPDQSRSXODWLRQWKDWDOOUHVXOWLQVHYHUHREHVLW\
7KHOLSRVWDWLFFRQVHQVXV
7KH OLSRVWDWLF WKHRU\ RI ERG\ IDWQHVV±PDVV UHJXODWLRQ KDV
EHFRPHWKHPRVWZLGHO\DFFHSWHGPRGHOIRUWKHUHJXODWLRQ
RI ERG\ IDWQHVV DQG WKXV ERG\ PDVV =KDQJ HW DO /HLEHO HW DO D &ROOLQV HW DO +DPDQQ 0DWWKDHL&DPSILHOGHWDO.HHVH\+LUYRQHQ
6DWRKHWDO6FKZDUW]:RRGVHWDO
)ULHGPDQ +DODDV /HYLQ .HHVH\ )ULHGPDQ+LUYRQHQ.HHVH\6FKZDUW]HWDO
7KH OLSRVWDWLF PRGHO VXJJHVWV WKDW IDW SURGXFHV
OHSWLQZKLFKWUDYHOVWRWKHEUDLQDVDVLJQDORIKRZIDWZH
DUH ,Q WKH EUDLQ WKLV OHSWLQ VLJQDO LV UHFHLYHG E\ WKH ORQJ
IRUPRIWKHOHSWLQUHFHSWRULQWKHK\SRWKDODPXVZKLFKWKHQ
VLJQDOVDZKROHVHULHVRIGRZQVWUHDPHYHQWVWKDWLQFOXGHVD
V\VWHP SHUPLWWLQJ FRPSDULVRQ RI WKH DFWXDO OHYHO RI ERG\
IDWQHVVZLWKDWDUJHWOHYHODQGWKHQHIIHFWVFKDQJHVLQIRRG
LQWDNHDQGHQHUJ\H[SHQGLWXUHYLDWKH13<&$57PHODQR
FRUWLQ DQG RWKHU V\VWHPV LQ WKH EUDLQ DQG WKH V\PSDWKHWLF
V\VWHPLQWKHSHULSKHU\WREULQJDERXWFKDQJHVWKDWUHJXODWH
ERG\IDWQHVVDQGPDVV
$VORQJDJRDVWKHVLWZDVUHFRJQLVHGWKDWRXUVKRUW
WHUP IHHGLQJ EHKDYLRXU LV UHJXODWHG E\ D GLIIHUHQW VHW RI
VLJQDOVIURPWKRVHVXJJHVWHGWREHLQYROYHGLQORQJHUWHUP
PDVVUHJXODWLRQHJWKHJOXFRVWDWLFWKHRU\RI0D\HU
DQG WKH VDWLHW\ IDFWRUV RI *LEEV HW DO (YHQ ZKHQ
RXU IDW OHYHOV DUH XQGHU WDUJHW DQG RXU OHSWLQ OHYHOV DUH
ORZHUHG ZH GR QRW IHHG FRQWLQXRXVO\ 2XU IHHGLQJ VWLOO
RFFXUV LQ GLVFUHWH PHDOV $ ZKROH GLIIHUHQW VHW RI VLJQDOV
WXUQ RXU IHHGLQJ EHKDYLRXU RQ DQG RII RQ D UHJXODU EDVLV
JHQHUDWLQJ WKLV PHDOEDVHG HDWLQJ SDWWHUQ 6LJQDOV WUDQV
PLWWHG LQ WKLV ZD\ LQFOXGH WKH IDPLOLDU PHDOWHUPLQDWLRQ
VLJQDO RI JDVWULF GLVWHQVLRQ ZKLFK LQYROYHV FKDQJHV LQ WKH
ILULQJ UDWH RI WKH DIIHUHQW YDJXV QHUYH 6FKZDUW] RU
EORRGFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIPHWDEROLWHVVXFKDVJOXFRVHLQVXOLQ
JKUHOLQ+RUYDWKHWDO/HYLQDQGFKROHF\VWR
NLQLQ *LEEV HW DO 0RUDQ 6RPH SHULSKHUDO
VLJQDOVWKDWDUHUHSUHVHQWHGLQWKHV\VWHPLFEORRGVWUHDPDUH
DEOH WR LQWHUDFW GLUHFWO\ ZLWK WKH FHQWUDO QHUYRXV V\VWHP
6FKZDUW] HW DO 7KHVH VLJQDOV LQFOXGH JOXFRVH
LQVXOLQ DQG JOXFRFRUWLFRLGV %DVNLQ HW DO /HYLQ
UHFHSWRUV ZKLFK FRORFDOLVH LQ DUHDV ZKHUH WKH
ORQJ IRUPRIWKHOHSWLQUHFHSWRULVDOVRIRXQGHJWKHEUDLQ
VWHP 0HUFHU HW DO 0RUHRYHU LQVXOLQ KDV EHHQ
VKRZQ WR KDYH GLUHFW SHULSKHUDO HIIHFW RQ OHSWLQ JHQH
H[SUHVVLRQ0XHOOHUHWDO:DQJHWDO7KHUHLV
FRQVHTXHQWO\ D G\QDPLF LQWHUSOD\ EHWZHHQ WKH ORQJWHUP
DQG VKRUWWHUP UHJXODWRU\ V\VWHPV ERWK SHULSKHUDOO\ DQG
FHQWUDOO\ +DYHO HW DO :DQJ HW DO 6FKZDUW]
HW DO 7KH LPPHGLDWH LPSHWXV WR HDW DQG VDWLHW\
DSSHDU WR EH XQGHU WKH FRQWURO RI RQH UHJXODWRU\ V\VWHP
DQG WKH ZKROH ORQJHUWHUP EDODQFH LV RUFKHVWUDWHG E\ WKH
µOLSRVWDWLF¶V\VWHPEDVHGRQOHSWLQ:RRGVHWDO
6FKZDUW]HWDO
$SHUVSHFWLYHRIWKHFDXVHRIREHVLW\XQGHUWKHOLSRVWDWLF
PRGHO
,Q WKH VDPH HQYLURQPHQW GLIIHUHQW LQGLYLGXDOV VXVWDLQ
GLIIHUHQWERG\PDVVHV$FFRUGLQJWRWKHOLSRVWDWLFPRGHORI
IRRGLQWDNHUHJXODWLRQREHVLW\PD\KDYHGHYHORSHGLQVRPH
VXESRSXODWLRQV RI WKH REHVH SULPDULO\ EHFDXVH WKHVH
LQGLYLGXDOVKDYHJHQHWLFGHIHFWVLQWKHLUOLSRVWDWLFUHJXODWLRQ
V\VWHPV7KHUROHRIJHQHWLFVLQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIREHVLW\
KDVEHHQORQJHVWDEOLVKHGIURPWZLQVWXGLHV%RXFKDUGHWDO
3ULFH*RWWHVPDQ9RJOHUHWDO6WXGLHV
RI WKH SDUHQW±RIIVSULQJ FRUUHODWLRQV RI %0, LQ ELRORJLFDO
DQGDGRSWLYHUHODWLRQVKLSVVXJJHVWEHWZHHQDQGRI
WKH YDULDWLRQ LQ %0, LV JHQHWLF 0DHV HW DO %DUVK
HW DO VXSSRUWLQJ WKH µGLVUXSWHG OLSRVWDWLF¶ YLHZ RI
WKHFDXVHRIREHVLW\
)RU H[DPSOH WKH UHJXODWRU\ V\VWHP PD\ EH FRPSOHWHO\
EURNHQ*URVVHUURUVRIWKLVW\SHLQWKHPROHFXODUIUDPHZRUN
RI WKH OLSRVWDW KDYH EHHQ GHVFULEHG LQ VHYHUDO LQGLYLGXDOV
0RQWDJXH HW DO &OHPHQW HW DO .UXGH HW DO
DQGZKLOHWKHVHHYHQWVDUHJHQHUDOO\H[WUHPHO\UDUH
VHYHUDOVFUHHQLQJVWXGLHVKDYHLQGLFDWHGWKDWDERXWRIDOO
PRUELG REHVLW\ FDQ EH WUDFHG WR SRO\PRUSKLF YDULDWLRQV LQ
WKH PHODQRFRUWLQ UHFHSWRU LQ WKH PHODQRFRUWLQ V\VWHP
+LQQH\ HW DO 9DLVVH HW DO <HR HW DO 1HYHUWKHOHVVVXFKVLQJOHJHQHSRO\PRUSKLVPVDUHUDUHDQG
H[SODLQRQO\DPLQRULW\RIWKHREVHUYHGSRSXODWLRQRIREHVH
VXEMHFWV
$Q DOWHUQDWLYH H[SODQDWLRQ IRU WKH GLIIHUHQWLDO GHYHO
RSPHQW RI REHVLW\ DFURVV LQGLYLGXDOV LV WKDW WKH OLSRVWDWLF
V\VWHP PD\ EH ZRUNLQJ FRUUHFWO\ DQG YDULDWLRQ LQ ERG\
-56SHDNPDQHWDO
PDVV EHWZHHQ VXEMHFWV PLJKW UHIOHFW GLIIHUHQW VHWSRLQWV LQ
WKHLUOLSRVWDWLFFRQWUROV\VWHPV6XFKDYDULDQFHLQVHWSRLQWV
PD\ LQWHUDFW ZLWK WKH HQYLURQPHQW LQ ZKLFK GLIIHUHQW
SRSXODWLRQVDUHORFDWHG&RQVHTXHQWO\LQVRPHVLWXDWLRQVLW
PLJKWQRWPDWWHUZKHUHWKHVHWSRLQWWDUJHWLVORFDWHGVLQFH
WKHDYDLODELOLW\RIIRRGDQGWKHHQHUJ\H[SHQGLWXUHUHTXLUHG
WRKDUYHVWLWPD\EHVRJUHDWWKDWWKHV\VWHPLVSHUSHWXDOO\
H[WHUQDOO\FRQVWUDLQHGWRQHYHUUHDFKWKHWDUJHW%DUVKHWDO
,Q FRQWUDVW WKH VDPH SRSXODWLRQ OLYLQJ LQ D VRFLHW\
ZKHUH HQHUJ\ LV UHDGLO\ DYDLODEOH LQ YHU\ SDODWDEOH IRUPV
UHTXLULQJ YLUWXDOO\ QR H[SHQGLWXUH RI HQHUJ\ WR JDWKHU LW
PD\ UHDGLO\ DFKLHYH WKHLU SRWHQWLDO VHWSRLQW ERG\ PDVVHV
9DULDWLRQV RYHU WLPH DQG LQGLYLGXDO VXVFHSWLELOLW\ DUH WKXV
YLHZHG XQGHU WKLV OLSRVWDWLF FRQWURO LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ DV D
FRQVHTXHQFHRIDJHQH±HQYLURQPHQWLQWHUDFWLRQ%DUVKHWDO
7KH HQYLURQPHQWDO FRPSRQHQW RI WKLV LQWHUDFWLRQ
PD\ LQFOXGH D ZKROH KRVW RI VRFLDO DQG HQYLURQPHQWDO
IDFWRUV$OWKRXJKWKLVLQWHUDFWLRQLVWKHRUHWLFDOO\SRVVLEOHLW
GRHV UDLVH WKH TXHVWLRQ RI ZKDW HYROXWLRQDU\ PHFKDQLVP
PLJKW KDYH UHVXOWHG LQ WKH VHWWLQJ RI WKH VHWSRLQWV DW VXFK
KLJKOHYHOV
$QRWKHUSRWHQWLDOH[SODQDWLRQIRULQGLYLGXDOYDULDWLRQVLQ
WKHH[WHQWRIREHVLW\LVWKDWLQREHVHLQGLYLGXDOVWKHV\VWHP
KDV EHFRPH UHIUDFWRU\ WR WKH SHULSKHUDO OHSWLQ VLJQDO VR
FDOOHG OHSWLQ UHVLVWDQFH )UHGHULFK HW DO )ULHGPDQ
6FKZDUW] HW DO 7KH ERG\ IDW SURGXFHV
VXIILFLHQWOHSWLQWRDFWDVDWUXHVLJQDORIERG\PDVVEXWIRU
VRPHUHDVRQSHUKDSVUHODWHGWRWUDQVSRUWDFURVVWKHEORRG±
EUDLQEDUULHU)UHGHULFKHWDO6FKZDUW]HWDORU
DOWHUDWLRQV LQ GRZQVWUHDP VHQVLWLYLW\ WR WKH VLJQDO LQ WKH
EUDLQ WKLV FLUFXODWLQJ OHSWLQ LV QRW SHUFHLYHG E\ WKH EUDLQ
DQG WKH OLSRVWDWLF V\VWHP UHDGV WKH ORZ OHSWLQ OHYHO DV
LQGLFDWLYH RI D ORZ ERG\ PDVV EHORZ WKH WDUJHW 7KLV
FRQGLWLRQGULYHVLQWRDFWLRQFRPSHQVDWRU\LQFUHDVHVLQIRRG
LQWDNHDQGUHGXFWLRQVLQH[SHQGLWXUHOHDGLQJWRREHVLW\7KH
GHYHORSPHQW RI OHSWLQ UHVLVWDQFH PD\ DOVR XQGHUSLQ WKH
ZHOOGRFXPHQWHGFKDQJHVLQSUHYDOHQFHRIREHVLW\ZLWKDJH
$KUHQ HW DO $V ZH JHW ROGHU RQ DYHUDJH ZH JHW
IDWWHUDQGWKLVFKDQJHPD\EHUHODWHGWRSURJUHVVLYHOHSWLQ
UHVLVWDQFHRUDSURJUHVVLYHVKLIWLQWKHOLSRVWDWLFWDUJHWERG\
PDVV
$QWLWKHVLVWKHOLSRVWDWLVDQLOOXVLRQRIDPXFKVLPSOHU
V\VWHPOLQNLQJLQWDNHWRLPPHGLDWHHQHUJ\GHPDQGVDQG
KLVWRULFDOHQHUJ\EDODQFH
$OWKRXJK WKH OLSRVWDWLF PRGHO RI ERG\ IDWQHVV±PDVV UHJX
ODWLRQHQMR\VZLGHVSUHDGFRQWHPSRUDU\VXSSRUWSDUWLFXODUO\
DPRQJPROHFXODUELRORJLVWVVHHHDUOLHUGLVFXVVLRQS
WKH LGHD WKDW WKHUH LV D µVHWSRLQW¶ V\VWHP UHJXODWLQJ
RXU HQHUJ\ EDODQFH KDV ORQJ EHHQ DQ LVVXH RI FRQWHQWLRQ
:LUWVKDIWHU'DYLV*DUURZ+RZHYHUHYHQ
LQWKHVHDUJXPHQWVRSSRQHQWVRIWKHVHWSRLQWWKHRULHVVWLOO
JHQHUDOO\ LQFOXGHG LQ WKHLU DOWHUQDWLYH PRGHOV RI HQHUJ\
KRPHRVWDVLV D IHHGEDFN VLJQDO OLQNLQJ LQWDNH DQG H[SHQG
LWXUH WRERG\PDVV IRU H[DPSOH VHH :LUWVKDIWHU 'DYLV
*DUURZ 7KH DUJXPHQW UHYROYHG DURXQG
ZKHWKHU WKLV IHHGEDFN VLJQDO DFWHG GLUHFWO\ RQ LQWDNH DQG
H[SHQGLWXUHRULQUHIHUHQFHWRDVHWSRLQW7KHDUJXPHQWZH
GHYHORS KHUH LV VRPHZKDW GLIIHUHQW LQ WKDW ZH SURSRVH D
PRGHOIRUHQHUJ\EDODQFHWKDWLQFOXGHVQRVLJQDOIURPPDVV
DW DOO EXW IURP ZKLFK PDVV UHJXODWLRQ DSSHDUV DV DQ
HPHUJHQWSURSHUW\
$ZKROHERG\SHUVSHFWLYH
,QWKHLQWURGXFWLRQWRWKHOLSRVWDWLFPRGHOZHSUHVHQWHGWKH
QRWLRQ WKDW D VXEMHFW LQ SHUIHFW HQHUJ\ EDODQFH ZRXOG EH
VWDEOH LQ ERG\ PDVV RYHU SURWUDFWHG WLPH SHULRGV ,Q
FRQWUDVWDVHFRQGVXEMHFWZKRZDVLQDOOUHVSHFWVLGHQWLFDO
WR WKH ILUVW ZLWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ WKDW WKH VXEMHFW DWH PRUH
HQHUJ\HTXLYDOHQWWRRQHDSSOHHDFKGD\ZRXOGDFFXPXODWH
HQRUPRXVREHVLW\ NJH[WUDERG\IDWWLVVXHRYHU\HDUV
RI WKLV WULYLDO LPEDODQFH 7KLV RIWHQ UHSHDWHG µWULYLDO
LPEDODQFH¶DUJXPHQWKRZHYHULVVSXULRXVEHFDXVHLWPDNHV
VHYHUDOFULWLFDOHUURQHRXVDVVXPSWLRQV
7KH ILUVW HUURQHRXV DVVXPSWLRQ LV WKDW WKH DFFXPXODWLQJ
WLVVXHZLOODOOEHIDW*HQHUDOO\ZHGRQRWFKDQJHRQO\RXU
IDW PDVV XQGHU FRQGLWLRQV RI HQHUJ\ LPEDODQFH EXW UDWKHU
ZH DOWHU ERWK OHDQ DQG IDW WLVVXH FRPSDUWPHQWV )RUEHV
6DOW]PDQ 5REHUWV (YDQV HW DO YDQ
$JJHO/HLMVVHQ HW DO :HLQVLHU HW DO 7KH
UHODWLYH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI WKLV PL[ RI OHDQ DQG IDW WLVVXH
DSSHDUV WR GHSHQG RQ VHYHUDO IDFWRUV EXW DFURVV D ZLGH
UDQJH RI FRQGLWLRQV WKHUH LV DQ DSSUR[LPDWH VSOLW RI
HQHUJ\LQWRDGLSRVHWLVVXHOHDQWLVVXHPDVVZKHQERG\PDVV
LQFUHDVHV RU GHFUHDVHV 7KXV LW ZRXOG DSSHDU WKDW WKLV
SURFHVVH[DFHUEDWHVWKHVLWXDWLRQEHFDXVHOHDQWLVVXHKDVD
PXFK ORZHU HQHUJ\ GHQVLW\ VR WKH DFWXDO ERG\ PDVV
DFFXPXODWLRQ ZRXOG EH JUHDWHU WKDQ LI WKH PDVV LV DOO
DVVXPHG WR EH VWRUHG DV IDW )RU H[DPSOH LQ WKH VFHQDULR
RXWOLQHG HDUOLHU S HDWLQJ DQ H[FHVV N-G ZRXOG
UHVXOWLQ 0-H[FHVVHQHUJ\VSOLWLQWR 0-GHYRWHG
WRDGLSRVHWLVVXH NJDQG 0-GHYRWHGWROHDQWLVVXH
UHVXOWLQJLQDIXUWKHU NJLQFUHDVHLQERG\PDVVDVVXPLQJ
OHDQ WLVVXH KDV DQ HQHUJ\ FRQWHQW RI Â N-J 7KH WRWDO
LQFUHDVHLVQRZ NJLQVWHDGRI NJZKHQDOOWKHHQHUJ\
ZDVVWRUHGDVIDW
7KLV GLIIHUHQWLDO XVH RI WKH HQHUJ\ EHFRPHV LPSRUWDQW
KRZHYHUZKHQZHFRQVLGHUWKHVHFRQGDVVXPSWLRQDQGWKDW
LVWKDWDOOWKHDGGLWLRQDOWLVVXHLVLQHUWDQGFRQWULEXWHVQRWKLQJ
WRGDLO\HQHUJ\GHPDQGV7KLVDVVXPSWLRQLVERXQGXSZLWK
WKHILUVWDVVXPSWLRQEHFDXVHLWLVRIWHQDVVXPHGVRPHWLPHV
H[SOLFLWO\EXWRIWHQRQO\LPSOLFLWO\WKDWDGLSRVHWLVVXHSODFHV
QR HQHUJ\ GHPDQGV RQ D VXEMHFW )RU H[DPSOH H[SUHVVLQJ
HQHUJ\H[SHQGLWXUHRQDOHDQWLVVXHEDVLVHIIHFWLYHO\DVVXPHV
WKDWDOOWKHH[SHQGLWXUHRFFXUVLQWKDWWLVVXHDQGE\LPSOL
FDWLRQ WKH UHPDLQLQJ WLVVXH LV LQHUW ,I DOO WKH DFFXPXODWHG
H[FHVV HQHUJ\ LV GHYRWHG WR IDW WLVVXH JURZWK DVVXPSWLRQ
OLQNLQJ WKLV DVVXPSWLRQ WRD VHFRQG DVVXPSWLRQ WKDWIDW
WLVVXHLVLQHUWOHDGVWRWKHWKLUGDVVXPSWLRQWKDWWKHDFFXPX
ODWLQJ WLVVXH LQFXUV QR LQFUHDVHG FRVWV 5HFRJQLVLQJ WKDW
DVVXPSWLRQLVHUURQHRXVLQHYLWDEO\OHDGVXVWRUHHYDOXDWH
DVVXPSWLRQEHFDXVHWKHDFFXPXODWLQJOHDQWLVVXHZLOOKDYH
LPSOLFDWLRQVIRUHQHUJ\GHPDQGV,QIDFWDVVXPSWLRQLVDOVR
HUURQHRXV EHFDXVH ZKLOH OHDQ WLVVXH H[SHQGV PRUH HQHUJ\
WKDQDGLSRVHWLVVXHDGLSRVHWLVVXHLVQRWFRPSOHWHO\LQHUW
7KH HQHUJ\ GHPDQGV RI DGLSRVH DQG OHDQ WLVVXHV KDYH
EHHQHYDOXDWHGLQVHYHUDOGLIIHUHQWZD\VDQGWKHUHVXOWVRI
WKHVHGLIIHUHQWDSSURDFKHVGRQRWFORVHO\FRUUHVSRQG(DUO\
HVWLPDWHV ZHUH GHULYHG IURP WKH PHWDEROLF GHPDQGV RI
WLVVXHV LQ FXOWXUH )LHOG HW DO .UHEV DQG
3HUVSHFWLYHVLQWKHVWXG\RIIRRGLQWDNH
VXJJHVWHG WKDW WKH HQHUJ\ GHPDQGV RI DGLSRVH WLVVXH ZHUH
VXEVWDQWLDOO\ ORZHU WKDQ WKRVH RI OHDQ WLVVXH 7KLV RSWLRQ
DFFRUGV ZLWK HVWLPDWHV EDVHG RQ WKH DUWHULR±YHQRXV
GLIIHUHQFH LQ 2 FRQWHQW RI EORRG VXSSO\LQJ DGLSRVH WLVVXH
GHSRWV LQ YLYR <HW LQ DQLPDO VWXGLHV ZKHUH DQDO\VHV RI
UHVWLQJPHWDEROLFUDWHKDYHEHHQFRPSDUHGZLWKLQGLYLGXDO
YDULDWLRQ LQ ERG\ FRPSRVLWLRQ D FOHDU GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ
DGLSRVHWLVVXHDQGOHDQWLVVXHGRHVQRWHPHUJHIRUH[DPSOH
VHH-RKQVRQHWDO7KHUHDUHSUREOHPVKRZHYHUZLWK
ERWK DSSURDFKHV )LUVW PHDVXUHPHQWV RI 2 FRQVXPSWLRQ
LQ YLWUR DQG DUWHULR±YHQRXV GLIIHUHQFHV LJQRUH DQ\ HIIHFW
WKDW VHFUHWLRQV IURP DGLSRVH WLVVXH KDYH RQ WKH HQHUJ\
PHWDEROLVP RI RWKHU WLVVXHV DQ REYLRXV H[DPSOH EHLQJ
OHSWLQ+DODDVHWDO+RZHYHUERG\FRPSRQHQWVGR
QRWYDU\LQGHSHQGHQWO\ DQGFRQVHTXHQWO\XVLQJD PXOWLSOH
UHJUHVVLRQ DSSURDFK WR WHDVH DSDUW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI OHDQ
DQGDGLSRVHWLVVXHWRWRWDOUHVWLQJPHWDEROLFUDWHLVSODJXHG
E\WKHSUREOHPVRISUHGLFWRUFRYDULDQFH$IXUWKHUSUREOHP
LVWKDWWKHµOHDQ¶ERG\FRPSDUWPHQWGRHVQRWKDYHDKRPR
JHQRXVFRPSRVLWLRQDQGGLIIHUHQWµOHDQ¶RUJDQVDQGWLVVXHV
H[SHQG HQHUJ\ DW GLIIHUHQW UDWHV 0XVFOH IRU H[DPSOH
H[SHQGVHQHUJ\DWRQO\DERXWÂ ×WKHUDWHRIDGLSRVHWLVVXH
\HW WKH OLYHU H[SHQGV HQHUJ\ DOPRVW × IDVWHU (OLD
DE (OLD HW DO *UHHQEHUJ &RPELQLQJ
W\SLFDO HVWLPDWHV RI WKH VL]HV RI GLIIHUHQW RUJDQV VXJJHVWV
WKDWRQDYHUDJHOHDQWLVVXHH[SHQGVHQHUJ\DW ×WKHUDWHRI
DGLSRVHWLVVXHFDOFXODWHGXVLQJGDWDLQ*UHHQEHUJ
&RQVHTXHQWO\ LI D VXEMHFW HDWV RQH DSSOH HDFK GD\ LQ
H[FHVV RI LQLWLDO GDLO\ HQHUJ\ UHTXLUHPHQWV WKH UHVXOWDQW
FKDQJHLQ ERG\ PDVV ZLOO FDXVHDQ XSZDUG VKLIWLQ HQHUJ\
GHPDQGV$IWHUDVKRUWSHULRGRIWLPHWKHHQHUJ\GHPDQGVRI
WKHLQFUHDVHGWLVVXHPDVVZLOOEDODQFHWKHDPRXQWRIHQHUJ\
LQ RQH DSSOH DQG QR IXUWKHU LQFUHDVH LQ ERG\ PDVV ZLOO
RFFXU EHFDXVH WKH LQWDNH DQG H[SHQGLWXUH DUH EDFN LQ
EDODQFH ,Q IDFW ZH FDQ PRGHO PXFK PRUH SUHFLVHO\ ZKDW
ZRXOG KDSSHQ WR ERG\ PDVV XQGHU WKH µWULYLDO LPEDODQFH¶
VFHQDULR XVLQJ VRPH VLPSOH HPSLULFDO UXOHV DERXW WKH
FRPSRVLWLRQRIERG\PDVVFKDQJHVVSOLWE\HQHUJ\LQ
IDYRXURIDGLSRVHWLVVXHDQGWKHHQHUJ\GHPDQGVRIIDWDQG
OHDQWLVVXHOHDQWLVVXHH[SHQGLQJHQHUJ\ ×JUHDWHUWKDQIDW
WLVVXH 8VLQJ WKLV PRGHO WKH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI HDWLQJ RQH
H[WUDDSSOHHDFKGD\DUHWKDWERG\PDVVZRXOGLQFUHDVHE\
DERXW Â NJ RYHU D SHULRG RI PRQWKV DQG WKHQ UHPDLQ
VWDEOH EHFDXVH WKLV Â NJ ZRXOG EH H[SHQGLQJ WKH HTXLY
DOHQW HQHUJ\ HDFK GD\ WR WKDW FRQWDLQHG LQ RQH DSSOH
([FHVVLYHREHVLW\ZRXOGQRWGHYHORS,QIDFWWRDFFXPXODWH
DQGVXVWDLQ NJH[WUDERG\WLVVXHRYHUDSHULRGRI\HDUV
DVXEMHFWZRXOGQHHGWRHDWQRWMXVWRQHH[WUDDSSOHHDFKGD\
EXW UDWKHU DQ H[WUD Â 0- HQHUJ\ HDFK GD\ UHODWLYH WR WKH
VXEMHFWZKRVWD\VDW NJ
7KHVLPSOHFRQVHTXHQFHRQHQHUJ\GHPDQGVRIDFFXPX
ODWLQJ RU GLVDSSHDULQJ WLVVXH XQGHU FRQGLWLRQV RI HQHUJ\
LPEDODQFH SURYLGHV D PHFKDQLVP WKDW OLPLWV RXU DELOLW\ WR
DFFXPXODWHRUJHWULGRIODUJHDPRXQWVRIERG\PDVV/HLEHO
HW DO E :H JHQHUDOO\ GR QRW JURZ HQRUPRXVO\ IDW
EHFDXVH WKH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI WULYLDO LPEDODQFHV IRU ERG\
PDVV DUH DFWXDOO\ WULYLDO &RQWUDU\ WR ZLGHVSUHDG RSLQLRQ
WKDW WULYLDO LPEDODQFHV ZLOO GR WKH MRE PRUH UHDOLVWLF
PRGHOV WKDW LQFRUSRUDWH PRUH UHDOLVWLF DVVXPSWLRQV DERXW
WKH EDODQFH RI OHDQ DQG IDW DFFXPXODWLRQ LQ DGGLWLRQ WR
UHFRJQLVLQJWKDWWKLVWLVVXHDGGVWRHQHUJ\GHPDQGVUHYHDO
WKDW WR DFFXPXODWH DQG VXVWDLQ HQRUPRXV REHVLW\ HQHUJ\
LQWDNHDQGH[SHQGLWXUHQHHGWREHPXFKPRUHGLYHUJHQWWKDQ
RIWHQSUHVXPHG
$OWKRXJKWKHVLPSOHPRGHOGHYHORSHGSUHYLRXVO\PDNHV
PRUH UHDOLVWLF SUHGLFWLRQV DERXW WKH LPSDFW RI HDWLQJ RQH
H[WUD DSSOH HDFK GD\ LW VWLOO FRQWDLQV VHYHUDO LPSRUWDQW
LPSOLFLWDVVXPSWLRQV LQ LWVFRQVWUXFWLRQ WKDWZHQRZPDNH
H[SOLFLWDQGWKHQPRGLI\WRPDNHWKHPPRUHUHDOLVWLF)LUVW
WKH PRGHO DVVXPHV WKDW DOO HQHUJ\ H[SHQGLWXUH LV D FRQVH
TXHQFHRIFKDQJHVLQERG\PDVVDQGFRPSRVLWLRQ$QHYHQ
PRUH UHDOLVWLF PRGHO KRZHYHU ZRXOG DFNQRZOHGJH WKDW
WKHUH DUH DOVR FRPSRQHQWV RI HQHUJ\ H[SHQGLWXUH WKDW YDU\
ODUJHO\ LQGHSHQGHQWO\ RI ERG\ FRPSRVLWLRQ VXFK DV WKH
H[SHQGLWXUH RQ SK\VLFDO 3$ DQG QRQSK\VLFDO DFWLYLW\
1($7$QLPSRUWDQWVHFRQGDVVXPSWLRQLVWKDWWKHOHYHOV
RI IRRG LQWDNH DQG WKH H[SHQGLWXUH UHVXOWLQJ IURP 3$ DQG
1($7 GR QRW FURVV WDON ZLWK RQH DQRWKHU ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV
HOHYDWLRQ RI 3$ RU 1($7 LV DVVXPHG QRW WR VWLPXODWH
DSSHWLWH DQG UHGXFWLRQV LQ IRRG LQWDNH DUH SUHVXPHG QRW
WR FDXVH FRPSHQVDWRU\ PRGXODWLRQV RI DFWLYLW\ 3$ RU
1($7 7KHUH LV VRPH HYLGHQFH WKDW ERWK VXFK OHYHOV
RI FRPSHQVDWRU\ FKDQJH LQ DSSHWLWH DQG H[SHQGLWXUH GR
RFFXUIRUUHYLHZVHH7DSS\DOWKRXJKWKHH[WHQWRI
FRPSHQVDWLRQ LV D PDWWHU RI GHEDWH -( %OXQGHOO XQSXE
OLVKHGUHVXOWV
:H FRQVWUXFWHG D VHFRQG PRGHO WKDW DGMXVWV IRU WKHVH
ODWWHU WZR DVVXPSWLRQV 7KH PRGHO ZDV SDUDPHWHULVHG
DUELWUDULO\ ZLWK WKH IROORZLQJ DVVXPSWLRQV )LUVW LW ZDV
DVVXPHG WKDW 3$ RFFXUV IRU D IL[HG SHULRG RI PLQ
HDFK GD\ ZKLOH QRQYLJRURXV DFWLYLW\ ZDV DVVXPHG WR
RFFXS\ K HDFK GD\ ([SHQGLWXUH OHYHOV IRU 3$ ZHUH
DVVXPHG WR EH × UHVWLQJ PHWDEROLF UDWH DQG IRU 1($7
ZHUHDVVXPHGWRHTXDOÂ ×UHVWLQJPHWDEROLFUDWHHDFKGD\
(VWLPDWHV RI WKH H[WHQW RI FURVV WDON EHWZHHQ DFWLYLW\ DQG
DSSHWLWH ZHUH LQFOXGHG DVVXPLQJ WKDW GXULQJ SHULRGV RI
HQHUJ\ GHILFLW 3$ DQG 1($7 GHFOLQH LQ SURSRUWLRQ WR WKH
H[WHQWRIWKHGHILFLW
$QDGGLWLRQDODVVXPSWLRQRIERWKWKHSUHFHGLQJPRGHOVLV
WKDWWKHUHLVQRPHPRU\RIHQHUJ\GHILFLWVRUVXUSOXVHVIURP
GD\WRGD\ $QLPDOV DQG PDQ KRZHYHU PD\ UHWDLQ D
PHPRU\RISDVWGHILFLWVLQHQHUJ\LQWDNH$JRRGH[DPSOHLV
WKDW LIDQDQLPDOLVFRPSOHWHO\ VWDUYHG IRU KLWUHWDLQV D
PHPRU\RIWKLVVWDUYDWLRQWKHQH[WGD\DQGLQFUHDVHVLWVIRRG
LQWDNH 6FKZDUW] 7KLV HIIHFW LV HTXLYDOHQW WR
FRPSHQVDWRU\KXQJHUGULYHQE\WKHKLVWRU\RIHQHUJ\GHILFLW
&RQYHUVHO\ LI DQ DQLPDO H[SHULHQFHV SRVLWLYH HQHUJ\
EDODQFH IRU G LW PD\ H[SHULHQFH QHJDWLYH KXQJHU DQG
DSSURSULDWHGRZQUHJXODWLRQRILQWDNHWKHIROORZLQJGD\$
WKLUGPRGHOZDVWKHUHIRUHFRQVWUXFWHGWRLQFOXGHDPHPRU\
RI WKH DYHUDJH HQHUJ\ GHILFLW RYHU D G SHULRG DQG
PRGXODWHIRRGLQWDNHXSZDUGVRUGRZQZDUGVLQDGOLELWXP
FRQGLWLRQV DFFRUGLQJO\ $JDLQ WKH PRGHO ZDV DUELWUDULO\
SDUDPHWHULVHG ZLWK WKH IROORZLQJ DVVXPSWLRQV $FFXPX
ODWHG HQHUJ\ GHILFLWV RYHU WKH SUHYLRXV G ZHUH XVHG WR
PRGXODWHIRRGLQWDNHLQWKHRSSRVLWHGLUHFWLRQE\RQHWHQWK
RIWKHDFFXPXODWHGLPEDODQFH+HQFHLIRYHUWKHSUHYLRXV
GHQHUJ\H[SHQGLWXUHH[FHHGHGLQWDNHE\ 0- 0-G
WKHQRQWKHILUVWGD\IROORZLQJUHOHDVHIURPUHVWULFWLRQIRRG
LQWDNHZRXOGEHHOHYDWHGE\ 0-7KHDFFXPXODWHG
GHILFLWRYHU GZRXOGWKHQEH 0-DQGLQWDNHRQGD\
IROORZLQJUHOHDVHIURPFRQVWUDLQWZRXOGWKHQEHHOHYDWHGE\
-56SHDNPDQHWDO
 0-,WZDVDVVXPHGKRZHYHUWKDWWKHUHZDVDV\PPHWU\
LQ WKH UHVSRQVH WR HQHUJ\ VXUSOXV FRPSDUHG ZLWK HQHUJ\
GHILFLW,QHQHUJ\VXUSOXVWKHFRQWULEXWLRQRIWKHHQHUJ\JDLQ
FRQWULEXWHG RQO\ RQHWHQWK WKH HIIHFW RI HQHUJ\ GHILFLW WR
WKH SHUFHLYHGKXQJHU7KHVHWKUHHPRGHOVGRQRWLQFOXGHD
OLSRVWDWLFUHJXODWRU\FRPSRQHQWDWWKHLUFRUH
:KDWGRWKHVHWKUHHPRGHOVSUHGLFWDERXWRXUUHVSRQVHV
WR GLHWDU\ LQWHUYHQWLRQV" :H XVHG WKH PRGHOV WR SUHGLFW
FKDQJHVLQIRRGLQWDNHHQHUJ\H[SHQGLWXUHDQGERG\PDVV
RYHU D SHULRG RI G LQFOXGLQJ D SHULRG RI G IRRG
UHVWULFWLRQ DW 0-G EHWZHHQ GD\V DQG 7KH
PRGHOOLQJ UHYHDOV WKH IROORZLQJ SDWWHUQV RI ERG\ PDVV
H[SHQGLWXUH DQG IRRG LQWDNH )LJV DQG 2YHU GD\V
± IRU DOO WKUHH PRGHOV IRRG LQWDNH LV VWDEOH DW DERXW
0-GDQGH[SHQGLWXUHLVDOVRVWDEOHDWWKLVOHYHOVRERG\
PDVVLVVWDEOHEHFDXVHWKHVXEMHFWLVLQHQHUJ\EDODQFH2Q
GD\KRZHYHUIRRGLQWDNHGHFOLQHVWR 0-GEHFDXVHRI
DQ LPSRVHG UHVWULFWLRQ 8QGHU DOO WKUHH PRGHO SUHGLFWLRQV
ERG\PDVVVWDUWVWRIDOOEHFDXVHIDWDQGOHDQWLVVXHDUHXVHG
WRIXHOWKHHQHUJ\GHILFLW([SHQGLWXUHIDOOVVOLJKWO\EHFDXVH
RI WKH PDVV ORVV XQGHU PRGHO )LJ DQG EHFDXVH RI
FRPSHQVDWRU\ DGMXVWPHQWV LQ OHYHOV RI 3$ DQG 1($7 LW
IDOOVDWDJUHDWHUUDWHLQERWK PRGHOVDQG)LJVDQG
2YHU GD\V ± WKHUH LV D SURJUHVVLYH GHFOLQH LQ ERG\
PDVVZKLFKVWDUWVWRUHDFKDQDV\PSWRWLFORVVEHFDXVHWKH
GHFOLQH LQ PDVV UHVXOWV LQ IDOOLQJ HQHUJ\ H[SHQGLWXUH ,Q
PRGHOV DQG WKH DV\PSWRWH LV UHDFKHG IDVWHU DQG WKH
H[WHQW RI PDVV ORVV LV ORZHU EHFDXVH WKH GHILFLW LV IXUWKHU
QDUURZHG E\ WKH FRPSHQVDWRU\ FKDQJHV LQ 3$ DQG 1($7
FRPSDUH)LJVDQG
,QWKHWKLUGPRGHOKXQJHULQFUHDVHVWKURXJKRXWWKHSHULRG
RIUHVWULFWLRQDQGHQHUJ\GHILFLWEXWWKHQVWDUWVWRIDOODVWKH
WLPH ZLQGRZ RYHU ZKLFK WKH GHILFLW JHQHUDWLQJ µKXQJHU¶
VWDUWVWRH[FOXGHWKHLQLWLDOSHULRGZKHUHWKHGHILFLWZDVDWLWV
JUHDWHVW $ FULWLFDO SUHGLFWLRQ IURP WKLV PRGHO LV WKDW
XOWLPDWHO\ LI WKH FRPELQHG HIIHFWV RI ZHLJKW ORVV
DQG FRPSHQVDWLRQV LQ 3$ DQG 1($7 PDWFK WKH OHYHO RI
H[WHUQDOO\LPSRVHG HQHUJ\ LQWDNH IRU WKH GXUDWLRQ RI WKH
WLPHZLQGRZWKDWJHQHUDWHVWKHKXQJHUVLJQDOWKHUHZRXOG
EH QR µKXQJHU¶ PRGXODWLQJ LQWDNH RQ UHOHDVH IURP
UHVWULFWLRQ,QRXUH[DPSOHRYHUD GSHULRGWKLVVWDWHLV
QRWUHDFKHG)ROORZLQJUHOHDVHIURPUHVWULFWLRQDWGD\
XQGHU PRGHO µKXQJHU¶ FDXVHV D SRVWUHVWULFWLRQ SHULRG RI
K\SHUSKDJLD )LJ ,Q PRGHOV DQG DIWHU GD\ WKH
VXEMHFW UHWXUQV WR WKH RULJLQDO HQHUJ\ LQWDNH RI 0-G
'XULQJWKLVSKDVHLQ PRGHOV DQG WKH FRPSHQVDWLRQVLQ
3$ DQG 1($7 GULYHQ E\ WKH SUHYLRXV HQHUJ\ GHILFLW
XQZLQG ,Q DOO WKUHH PRGHOV WKHUHIRUH ERG\ PDVV VWDUWV
WR ULVH XQWLO XOWLPDWHO\ WKH ERG\ PDVV EHIRUH UHVWULFWLRQ LV
UHHVWDEOLVKHG DQG D VWHDG\VWDWH FRQGLWLRQ SHUWDLQV WKDW
LV HTXLYDOHQW WR WKH VWDUWLQJ FRQGLWLRQ 7KH WKUHH PRGHOV
GLIIHU LQ WKH VSHHG DW ZKLFK WKH RULJLQDO VWDWH LV DWWDLQHG
IDVWHVW LQ PRGHO ZLWK WKH µKXQJHU¶ GULYHQ K\SHUSKDJLD
HIIHFWDQGVORZHVWLQPRGHOZKLFKODFNVERWKWKHKXQJHU
DQGFRPSHQVDWRU\DFWLYLW\FKDQJHV
(a)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Energy intake or
expenditure (MJ/d)
Energy intake or
expenditure (MJ/d)
(a)
1
201
401
601
Day of iteration
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1
201
401
601
Day of iteration
801
1
201
401
601
Day of iteration
801
801
(b)
80
(b)
70
Body mass (kg)
80
Body mass (kg)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
1
201
401
601
Day of iteration
801
)LJ 3DWWHUQV RI YDULDWLRQ LQ D IRRG LQWDNH ± DQG HQHUJ\
H[SHQGLWXUH DQG E ERG\ PDVV JHQHUDWHG E\ D FRPSXWHU
PRGHOIRXQGHGRQDPRGHOZKLFKDVVXPHVWKDWHQHUJ\GHILFLWVUHVXOW
LQ FKDQJHV LQ ERWK OHDQ DQG IDW WLVVXH ZLWK FRQVHTXHQW HIIHFWV IRU
UHVWLQJHQHUJ\H[SHQGLWXUH
)LJ 3DWWHUQV RI YDULDWLRQ LQ D IRRG LQWDNH ± DQG HQHUJ\
H[SHQGLWXUH DQG E ERG\ PDVV JHQHUDWHG E\ D FRPSXWHU
PRGHOIRXQGHGRQDPRGHOZKLFKDVVXPHVWKDWHQHUJ\GHILFLWVUHVXOW
LQ FKDQJHV LQ ERWK IDW DQG OHDQ WLVVXH ZLWK FRQVHTXHQW HIIHFWV IRU
UHVWLQJHQHUJ\H[SHQGLWXUHDQGLQDGGLWLRQHQHUJ\GHILFLWVPRGXODWH
QHJDWLYHO\ WKH OHYHOV RI SK\VLFDO DFWLYLW\ DQG QRQSK\VLFDO DFWLYLW\
WKHUPRJHQHVLV
3HUVSHFWLYHVLQWKHVWXG\RIIRRGLQWDNH
UHWXUQ WR WKHLU RULJLQDO IRRG LQWDNH DQG DFWLYLW\ KDELWV
8OWLPDWHO\ WKHVH KDELWV DUH FRPSDWLEOH ZLWK RQO\ D VLQJOH
VWHDG\VWDWHERG\PDVV7KHIDFWWKDWWKHPDQLSXODWHGPDVV
LPPHGLDWHO\IROORZLQJUHOHDVHIURPPDQLSXODWLRQUHWXUQVWR
WKHRULJLQDOPDVVGRHVQRWLPSO\WKHH[LVWHQFHRIDOLSRVWDW
RQO\WKHH[LVWHQFHRIDFRPPRQLQWDNHDQGH[SHQGLWXUHVWDWH
EHIRUH DQG IROORZLQJ WKH SHULRG RI UHVWULFWLRQ 7KH PRVW
LPSRUWDQWDVSHFWVRIWKHVHWKUHHPRGHOVIURPDQHSLGHPLR
ORJLFDOYLHZUHODWLQJWRWKHFDXVHVRIREHVLW\DUHWKHIDFWRUV
WKDWVHWRXUKDELWXDOIRRGLQWDNHDQGDFWLYLW\OHYHOV
Energy intake or
expenditure (MJ/d)
(a)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1
201
401
601
Day of iteration
801
(b)
80
70
Body mass (kg)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
201
401
601
Day of iteration
801
)LJ 3DWWHUQVRIYDULDWLRQLQDIRRGLQWDNH±DQGHQHUJ\H[SHQG
LWXUH DQG E ERG\ PDVV JHQHUDWHG E\ D FRPSXWHU PRGHO
ZKLFK DVVXPHV WKH VDPH DV WKDW LQ )LJ DQG LQ DGGLWLRQ HQHUJ\
GHILFLWVDFFXPXODWHGRYHUDPHPRU\WLPHZLQGRZRI GPRGXODWH
IRRGLQWDNHXSZDUGVZKHQQRWH[WHUQDOO\UHVWULFWHG
7KHVHWKUHHPRGHOVLQFOXGHQRFRPSRQHQWWKDWVLJQDOVWKH
VWDWXVRIERG\PDVVDQG\HWWKH\SUHGLFWDOPRVWH[DFWO\WKH
SDWWHUQV RI FKDQJH LQ ERG\ PDVV WKDW DUH REVHUYHG LQ UHDO
VXEMHFWVFRPSDUHFKDQJHVLQERG\PDVVLQ)LJV±DQG
DUH ZLGHO\ EHOLHYHG WR VLJQDO WKH H[LVWHQFH RI µOLSRVWDWLF¶
UHJXODWLRQ LH SRVWUHVWULFWLRQ LQFUHDVHV LQ ERG\ PDVV WR
SUHUHVWULFWLRQOHYHOV,QWKHWKLUGPRGHOWKHVHLQFUHDVHVDUH
DOVR GULYHQ E\ WKH ZLGHO\ REVHUYHG SRVWUHVWULFWLRQ
K\SHUSKDJLD
$OWKRXJK WKH H[DFW SDWWHUQV UHYHDOHG E\ WKHVH PRGHOV
GHSHQGRQWKHH[DFWSDUDPHWHULVDWLRQWKDWLVHPSOR\HGWKH
RYHUDOOQDWXUHRIWKHFKDQJHVUHPDLQVUREXVWWRWKHGHWDLOVRI
WKHSDUDPHWHULVDWLRQ+HQFHFKDQJLQJWKHOHYHORI3$DOWHUV
WKHSRLQWDWZKLFKHQHUJ\EDODQFHLVDFKLHYHGDQGWKXVWKH
HTXLOLEULXPERG\PDVVEXWQRWWKHIDFWWKDWDQHTXLOLEULXP
LQ PDVV RFFXUV 7KH SXUSRVH RI WKLV PRGHOOLQJ LV QRW WR
GLVPLVV WKH OLSRVWDWLF PRGHO RI ERG\PDVV UHJXODWLRQ
5DWKHU RXU DLP LV WR KLJKOLJKW WKH IDFW WKDW REVHUYHG
YDULDWLRQV LQ ERG\ PDVV GXULQJ DQG IROORZLQJ SHULRGV RI
LPEDODQFHLPSRVHGE\UHVWULFWLRQRURYHULQGXOJHQFHFDQEH
H[SODLQHGE\RWKHUPRGHOVWKDWGRQRWLQYRNHWKHH[LVWHQFH
RIDOLSRVWDW:HDUHQRWUHLWHUDWLQJWKHSUHYLRXVDUJXPHQWV
DERXW ZKHWKHU RU QRW WKHUH LV D VHWSRLQW LQ WKH V\VWHP WR
ZKLFKDIHHGEDFNVLJQDOLVFRPSDUHG*DUURZUDWKHU
WKHVHPRGHOVTXHVWLRQWKHH[LVWHQFHRIDQ\IHHGEDFNVLJQDO
DW DOO IURP ERG\ PDVV 7KH NH\ SRLQW WKDW LV RIWHQ PLVVHG
ZKHQ LQWHUSUHWLQJ WKH SDWWHUQ RI PDVV UHJDLQ IROORZLQJ D
SHULRG RI GLHWDU\ UHVWULFWLRQ LV WKDW WKH VXEMHFWV QRUPDOO\
$PROHFXODUELRORJ\SHUVSHFWLYH
7KHFRUHRIWKHPROHFXODUDVSHFWRIWKHOLSRVWDWLFPRGHOLV
WKHQRWLRQWKDWOHSWLQSURYLGHVDOLSRVWDWLFVLJQDOIDLWKIXOO\
UHSRUWLQJ OHYHOV RI ERG\ IDWQHVV WR WKH EUDLQ &DPSILHOG
HW DO :RRGV HW DO )ULHGPDQ +DODDV )ULHGPDQ 6FKZDUW] HW DO 7KH
PDMRU HYLGHQFH VXSSRUWLQJ WKLV VWDQFH LV WKDW OHSWLQ LV
SURGXFHGDOPRVWH[FOXVLYHO\E\ZKLWHDGLSRVHWLVVXH=KDQJ
HW DO DQG KHQFH WKH OHYHOV RI FLUFXODWLQJ OHSWLQ
DUH FRUUHODWHG ZLWK ERG\ IDWQHVV &RQVLGLQH HW DO 2WKHU VRXUFHV RI OHSWLQ LQ QRQUHSURGXFWLYH LQGLYLGXDOV
VXFKDVWKHJDVWULFPXFRVDGRQRWFRQWULEXWHVXEVWDQWLDOO\WR
FLUFXODWLQJ OHSWLQ OHYHOV 7KHUH DUH KRZHYHU D QXPEHU RI
RWKHUIDFWRUVWKDWXQGHUPLQHWKLVUROHDVDOLSRVWDWLFVLJQDO
7KH ILUVW LV WKDW WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ OHSWLQ OHYHOV DQG
ERG\ DGLSRVLW\ LV H[WUHPHO\ ZHDN &RQVLGLQH HW DO +LFNH\HWDO/DKORXHWDO$GDPLHWDO
&DPSRVWDQRHW DO7KLVSRVLWLRQDSSHDUVDWOHDVWLQ
SDUW WR EH D FRQVHTXHQFH RI GLIIHUHQWLDO OHSWLQ SURGXFWLRQ
LQ GLIIHUHQW DGLSRVH WLVVXH GHSRWV %HQQHWW HW DO %HQQHWW&RSSDFNHWDO0RQWDJXHHWDO
5XVVHOO HW DO 6RPH DGLSRVH WLVVXH GHSRWV SURGXFH
FRQVLGHUDEO\PRUHOHSWLQWKDQRWKHUGHSRWVDQGWKHEDODQFH
RI SURGXFWLRQ DSSHDUV WR YDU\ EHWZHHQ VSHFLHV DQG DOVR
EHWZHHQGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDJHV,WLVGLIILFXOWWRLPDJLQHKRZ
DQ RYHUDOOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI ERG\ IDWQHVV FDQEHGHULYHG LI
WKH SURGXFWLRQ UDWHV RI WKH VLJQDOOLQJ FRPSRXQG DUH
GLIIHUHQW LQ GLIIHUHQW GHSRWV 7KLV SUREOHP LV IXUWKHU
H[DFHUEDWHG E\ WKH IDFW WKDW LQ VRPH VSHFLHV VXEVWDQWLDO
SURGXFWLRQRIOHSWLQRFFXUVRXWVLGHWKHZKLWHDGLSRVHWLVVXH
7KH PRVW QRWDEOH H[DPSOH LV WKH FKLFNHQ *DOOXV
GRPHVWLFXVZKHUHWKHUHLVVXEVWDQWLDOOHSWLQSURGXFWLRQLQ
WKH OLYHU &DVV\ HW DO 7DRXLV HW DO ,Q WKLV
VSHFLHV OHSWLQ FDQQRW SURYLGH D IDLWKIXO VLJQDO RI DGLSRVLW\
XQOHVV WKH OLYHU SURGXFWLRQ RI OHSWLQ LV UHJXODWHG LQ VRPH
PDQQHUE\DGLSRVHWLVVXHGHSRWVL]H
$WKLUGDVSHFWRIWKHUROHRIOHSWLQLVLWVHIIHFWVRQHQHUJ\
H[SHQGLWXUH 7KHVH HIIHFWV KDYH EHHQ DQ LVVXH RI VRPH
GHEDWH EHFDXVH VRPH VWXGLHV KDYH LQGLFDWHG WKDW DGPLQLV
WUDWLRQRIH[RJHQRXVOHSWLQVWLPXODWHVDQLQFUHDVHLQHQHUJ\
H[SHQGLWXUH/XKHVKLHWDOVXSSRVHGO\PHGLDWHGYLD
LQWHUOHXNLQ 7KLV UHVSRQVH LV H[DFWO\ ZKDW PLJKW EH
DQWLFLSDWHG IRUD OLSRVWDWLFVLJQDO PRGXODWLQJERWKH[SHQG
LWXUHDQGLQWDNHLQRSSRVLWHGLUHFWLRQVWREULQJDERXWERG\
PDVV KRPHRVWDVLV +RZHYHU VHYHUDO RWKHU VWXGLHV KDYH
IDLOHG WR HOLFLW WKH VDPH HIIHFW +DDODVHW DO 'RULQJ
HW DO6SHDNPDQHWDO
)LQDOO\ OHSWLQ SURGXFWLRQ DSSHDUV WR EH H[WUHPHO\
VHQVLWLYHWRWKHLPPHGLDWHO\SUHFHGLQJIRRGLQWDNHRUHQHUJ\
-56SHDNPDQHWDO
H[SHQGLWXUH.RODF]\QVNLHWDO0L\DZDNLHWDO
/LHWDO7KHUHLVDGLXUQDOF\FOHLQOHSWLQSURGXFWLRQ
WKDW LQ KXPDQ VXEMHFWV SHDNV GXULQJ WKH QLJKW IROORZLQJ
IRRG LQWDNH GXULQJ WKH SUHFHGLQJ GD\ 7KLV SHDN LV GULYHQ
DOPRVW H[FOXVLYHO\ E\ WKH SDWWHUQ RI IRRG LQWDNH 9LQWHQ
HW DO 6FKRHOOHU HW DO 7DVDND HW DO DOWKRXJK VRPH VWXGLHV KDYH LQGLFDWHG WKDW WKHUH LV DOVR
DQ HQGRJHQRXV FRPSRQHQW 7KH PRVW LPSRUWDQW HIIHFW
KRZHYHULVWKDWZKHQWKHUHLVQRIRRGLQWDNHOHSWLQUHPDLQV
GHSUHVVHG 6FKRHOOHU HW DO 7KLV GLUHFW HIIHFW RI WKH
DEVHQFHRIIRRGLQWDNHVXSSUHVVLQJOHSWLQSURGXFWLRQRFFXUV
EHIRUHWKHUHLVDQ\QRWLFHDEOHHIIHFWRQWKHPDJQLWXGHRIWKH
VL]H RI IDW VWRUHV DQG FOHDUO\ LQYROYHV GRZQUHJXODWLRQ RI
RU UDWKHU IDLOXUH WR XS UHJXODWH WKH OHYHOV RI OHSWLQ JHQH
H[SUHVVLRQ 7KHVH ODWWHU FKDQJHV VWURQJO\ VXJJHVW WKDW WKH
GRPLQDQW UROH RI OHSWLQ LV QRW DV D SHULSKHUDO OLSRVWDWLF
VLJQDO EXW UDWKHU DV D VKRUWWHUP VWDUYDWLRQ RU HQHUJHWLF
VWDWXVVLJQDODVVWURQJO\DGYRFDWHGE\)OLHUDQGFROOHDJXHV
$KLPDHWDO7KLVDSSURDFKLVIXUWKHUVXSSRUWHGE\
HYLGHQFH WKDW FKURQLFDOO\IRRGGHSULYHG SDWLHQWV ZLWK
DQRUH[LD QHUYRVD KDYH GLVSURSRUWLRQDWHO\ UHGXFHG OHSWLQ
OHYHOVUHODWLYHWRWKHLUERG\IDWQHVV*ULQVSRRQHWDO
+HEHEUDQGHWDO+HUSHUW]HWDO
$SK\VLRORJLFDOSHUVSHFWLYH
+DYLQJUHYLVHGRXULQWHUSUHWDWLRQVRIWKHH[LVWLQJPROHFXODU
GDWD ZKLFKLQGLFDWHDW OHDVW DVPXFK VXSSRUWIRUWKHDOWHU
QDWLYH PRGHO DV IRU WKH OLSRVWDWLF PRGHO ZH PD\ DOVR
UHLQWHUSUHW ZKDW LV KDSSHQLQJ LQ WKH PXWDQW RERE DQG
'E'E PLFH DQG WKH SDUDELRVLV H[SHULPHQWV &ROHPDQ
,QRXUSUHYLRXVLQWHUSUHWDWLRQZHVXJJHVWHGWKDWWKH
JURVVREHVLW\RIWKHREREDQG'E'EPLFHLVDFRQVHTXHQFH
RIWKHPIDLOLQJWRVHQVHKRZIDWWKH\DUHEHFDXVHWKH\DUH
XQDEOHWRSURGXFHRUUHDGUHVSHFWLYHO\WKHOHSWLQDGLSRVLW\
VLJQDO7KH\FRQVHTXHQWO\µWKLQN¶WKH\DUHGDQJHURXVO\WKLQ
DQGHIIHFWK\SHUSKDJLDDQGUHGXFWLRQVLQHQHUJ\H[SHQGLWXUH
PHFKDQLVPVWRHIIHFWLQFUHDVHVLQERG\IDWQHVVDQGRYHUDOO
PDVV7KHDOWHUQDWLYHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIWKHVHREVHUYDWLRQVLV
WKDW WKH DQLPDOV GR QRW ODFN D VLJQDO WHOOLQJ WKHP KRZ IDW
WKH\DUHEXWUDWKHUWKH\ODFNDVLJQDOWHOOLQJWKHPWKH\KDYH
HDWHQIRRGWKDWGD\7KH\GRQRWWKLQNWKH\DUHGDQJHURXVO\
WKLQ EXW UDWKHU WKH\ WKLQN WKH\ DUH LQ GDQJHURXV QHJDWLYH
HQHUJ\ EDODQFH &RQVHTXHQWO\ WKH\ DFWLYDWH FRPSHQVDWRU\
PHFKDQLVPVLQWKHLUH[SHQGLWXUHWRUHGXFHWKHLPSDFWRIWKH
HQHUJ\LPEDODQFHDQGDOVREHFRPHK\SHUSKDJLFWRUHYHUVH
WKHLPEDODQFH8QIRUWXQDWHO\WKH\QHYHUJHWWKHVLJQDODQG
VXVWDLQ SURWUDFWHGSRVLWLYH HQHUJ\EDODQFH OHDGLQJ WR JURVV
REHVLW\
$QLQWHUHVWLQJREVHUYDWLRQRIREREDQG'E'EPLFHWKDW
VXSSRUWVWKHVWDUYDWLRQVLJQDOUDWKHUWKDQWKHOLSRVWDWLFVLJQDO
LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ LV WKDW WKH\ GR QRW LQFUHDVH LQ ERG\ PDVV
LQGHILQLWHO\EXWLQVWHDGUHDFKDQDV\PSWRWH:K\GRHVWKLV
KDSSHQ"$QLQWHUSUHWDWLRQXQGHUWKHOLSRVWDWLFPRGHOLVWKDW
WKHUH LV DQ DGGLWLRQDO OLSRVWDWLF VLJQDO LQGLFDWLQJ ERG\
IDWQHVVWKDWLVDFWLYDWHGRQO\DWKLJKOHYHOVRIERG\IDWQHVV
7KLV VXJJHVWLRQ LV LQWHUHVWLQJ EXWLW LV GLIILFXOW WR LPDJLQH
KRZ VXFK D µKLJKIDWQHVV¶ VLJQDO V\VWHP PLJKW HYROYH LQ
WKH SUHVHQFH RI WKH ORZIDWQHVV UHJXODWRU\ V\VWHP HYHQ
LJQRULQJ WKH GLIILFXOW\ RI LPDJLQLQJ D IXQFWLRQ IRU VXFK D
µKLJKIDWQHVV¶UHJXODWLRQV\VWHP+RZHYHUXQGHUWKHVLPSOH
QRQOLSRVWDWLF PRGHOV RXWOLQHG HDUOLHU DQ DV\PSWRWH LV
DFWXDOO\ H[SHFWHG EHFDXVH WKH DEVHQFH RI OHSWLQ LV WKH
XOWLPDWH VWDUYDWLRQ VLJQDO WKDW JHQHUDWHV D PD[LPDO IRRG
LQWDNHUHVSRQVH,QHYLWDEO\KRZHYHUWKHUHVXOWDQWLQFUHDVHV
LQERG\PDVVJHQHUDWHGE\WKHHQHUJ\LPEDODQFHZLOOHOHYDWH
H[SHQGLWXUHDQGHYHQWXDOO\DWDOHYHORIPRUELGREHVLW\WKH
DQLPDO ZLOO EH LQ HQHUJ\ EDODQFH UHVXOWLQJ LQ QR IXUWKHU
DFFXPXODWLRQRIERG\WLVVXH
7KHVLPSOHQRQOLSRVWDWLFPRGHOVVXPPDU\
7KH QRQOLSRVWDWLF PRGHOV KLJKOLJKWHG HDUOLHU WDNH DV WKHLU
IXQGDPHQWDO VWDUWLQJ SRLQW WKH IDFW WKDW QR ERG\ WLVVXH LV
LQHUW DQG DQ\ FKDQJHV LQ ERG\ PDVV LQFOXGH DOWHUDWLRQV LQ
ERWK OHDQ DQG IDW WLVVXH FRPSDUWPHQWV $Q\ LPEDODQFH
EHWZHHQLQWDNHDQGH[SHQGLWXUHUHVXOWVLQWLVVXHVWRUDJHWKDW
LWVHOI QDUURZV WKH GLIIHUHQFH LQ WKH LPEDODQFH EHFDXVH RI
HOHYDWHGRUGHFUHDVHGH[SHQGLWXUH,QLWVVLPSOHVWIRUPWKH
PRGHO LQFOXGHV RQO\ WKLV HIIHFW 0RUH UHILQHG YHUVLRQV RI
WKH VLPSOH PRGHO LQFOXGH ILUVW FRPSHQVDWRU\ FKDQJHV LQ
DFWLYLW\ WR LPPHGLDWH HQHUJ\ LPEDODQFH DQG VHFRQG
µKXQJHU¶ GULYHQ E\ D PHPRU\ RI SDVW HQHUJ\ LPEDODQFH
7KHVH WZR DGGLWLRQDO IDFWRUV PRGXODWH WKH VSHHG DW ZKLFK
ERG\ PDVV PRYHV EHWZHHQ VWDWHV DV IRRG LQWDNH LV PRGX
ODWHGE\H[WHUQDOIRUFHVVXFKDVLPSRVHGIRRGUHVWULFWLRQ
7KHPRVWUHILQHGPRGHOSUHGLFWVDOOWKHREVHUYHGSDWWHUQVRI
YDULDWLRQ LQ ERG\ PDVV SRVWUHVWULFWLRQ K\SHUSKDJLD DQG
PRGLILFDWLRQV LQ H[SHQGLWXUH WKDW DFFRPSDQ\ LPSRVHG
HQHUJ\ LPEDODQFHV ZLWKRXW WKH QHHGWR LQYRNH D OLSRVWDWLF
VLJQDOOLQJ V\VWHP DV WKH XQGHUO\LQJ FDXVH RI WKHVH
SKHQRPHQD
2EHVLW\DQGWKHQRQOLSRVWDWLFPRGHO
,Q WKH QRQOLSRVWDWLF PRGHOV ZH KDYH DVVXPHG WKDW WKH
KDELWXDOIRRGLQWDNHRIWKHVXEMHFWDQGWKHKDELWXDOOHYHOVRI
3$DQG1($7DUHIL[HGWUDLWVWKDWFDQEHPRGXODWHGE\WKH
VXEMHFW¶VUHJXODWRU\V\VWHPXQGHUYDULRXVFRQGLWLRQVEXWWR
ZKLFKWKHVXEMHFWUHWXUQVXQGHUH[WHQGHGGHUHVWULFWLRQ7KH
EDODQFH RI WKH PDJQLWXGH RI WKHVH µKDELWXDO¶ WUDLWV LQ DQ\
JLYHQLQGLYLGXDOGHILQHVWKHHYHQWXDOVWHDG\VWDWHERG\PDVV
DQGERG\IDWQHVV7KHNH\TXHVWLRQWKHUHIRUHIRUWKHLQWHU
SUHWDWLRQ RI WKH FDXVHV RI REHVLW\ XQGHU WKLV SDWWHUQ RI
HQHUJ\ UHJXODWLRQ LV ZKDW DUH WKH IDFWRUV WKDW DIIHFW WKHVH
VDOLHQWWUDLWV":HVXJJHVWWKDWWKHVHWUDLWVDUHOLNHO\WREHWKH
SURGXFW RI D ZKROH UDQJH RI IDFWRUV LQFOXGLQJ JHQHWLF
SRO\PRUSKLVPV LQ WKH LPSRUWDQW VLJQDOOLQJ V\VWHPV WKDW
LQGLFDWH FXUUHQW DQG KLVWRULFDO HQHUJHWLF VWDWXV VXFK DV
OHSWLQ DQG WKH PHODQRFRUWLQ V\VWHP DQG WKXV GULYH IRRG
LQWDNH DQG HQHUJ\ H[SHQGLWXUH +RZHYHU LQ DGGLWLRQ WR
JHQHWLF IDFWRUV WKHUH DUH OLNHO\ WR EH D ZKROH KRVW RI QRQ
JHQHWLFIDFWRUVLQFOXGLQJIRHWDOSURJUDPPLQJHIIHFWVHDUO\
OLIH FRQGLWLRQLQJ VRFLDO IDFWRUV SHHU SUHVVXUH HGXFDWLRQ
SRYHUW\VRFLDOVWDWXVDQGWKHLPPHGLDWHµHQYLURQPHQW¶DOO
RI ZKLFK ZLOO LPSDFW RQ RXU µOLIHVW\OHV¶ 7KHVH IDFWRUV DUH
ODUJHO\UHOHJDWHGLQWKHµOLSRVWDWLF¶LQWHUSUHWDWLRQWRDPLQRU
UROH
8QGHUWKHµQRQOLSRVWDWLF¶PRGHOWKHVHRWKHUQRQJHQHWLF
IDFWRUVDVVXPHDPXFKJUHDWHULPSRUWDQFH+HQFHFKDQJHV
LQ WKH SDWWHUQV RI REHVLW\ RYHU WLPH DUH LQWHUSUHWHG DV D
FRQVHTXHQFH RI VRFLDO FKDQJHV LQ RXU OLIHVW\OHV LQFOXGLQJ
3HUVSHFWLYHVLQWKHVWXG\RIIRRGLQWDNH
WKHVSUHDGRIFDURZQHUVKLSVRFLDOGLQLQJDQG79YLHZLQJ
'LIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQLQGLYLGXDOVDUHERXQGXSLQWKHH[WHQW
WRZKLFKLQGLYLGXDOVDVVXPHGLIIHUHQWOLIHVW\OHV7KLVIDFWRU
PD\KDYHDODUJHJHQHWLFFRPSRQHQWDVLVDVVXPHGLQWKH
OLSRVWDWLF PRGHO DQG VXJJHVWHG IURP WKH YDULDQFH LQ %0,
H[SODLQHGE\JHQHWLFV%DUVKHWDOEXWWKHUHLVDOVR
URRP LQ WKH µQRQOLSRVWDWLF¶ PRGHOV IRU D ODUJH LPSDFW RI
RWKHU µVRFLDO¶ IDFWRUV DV ZHOO ,Q WKH FDVH RI DJHUHODWHG
FKDQJHV LQ REHVLW\ IRU H[DPSOH WKH OLSRVWDWLF PRGHO
LQWHUSUHWVWKHVHFKDQJHVDVUHVXOWLQJIURPSURJUHVVLYHVKLIWV
LQ WKH VHWSRLQW RU OHSWLQ UHVLVWDQFH +RZHYHU LQ WKH QRQ
OLSRVWDWLFPRGHOWKHVHFKDQJHVPLJKWEHDUHVXOWRIGHYHORS
PHQWDOFKDQJHVLQWKHV\VWHPVLJQDOOLQJHQHUJHWLFVWDWXVEXW
FRXOG HTXDOO\ UHIOHFW VRFLDO FKDQJHV LQ OLIHVW\OH VXFK DV
JUHDWHUDIIOXHQFHDQGUHGXFHG3$RURWKHUGHYHORSPHQWDO
SK\VLRORJLFDOHYHQWVVXFKDVWKHGHFOLQLQJUHVWLQJPHWDEROLF
UDWHDVDIXQFWLRQRIDJH*UHHQEHUJ0RUHRYHUVRPH
SDWWHUQVLQWKHHSLGHPLRORJ\RIREHVLW\HJWKHH[LVWHQFHRI
VXEVWDQWLDOO\ KLJKHU OHYHOV RI REHVLW\ LQ JURXSV RI ORZHU
HGXFDWLRQDO DFKLHYHPHQW DQG ORZHU VRFLDO FODVV FDQ EH
HDVLO\LQWHUSUHWHGXQGHUWKHQRQOLSRVWDWLFPRGHOEHFDXVHRI
VRFLDODQGHGXFDWLRQDOIDFWRUVWKDWLPSDFWRQHQHUJ\LQWDNH
DQG H[SHQGLWXUH WKDW DUH XQLTXH WR WKHVH JURXSV 7KHVH
SDWWHUQVSRVHGLIILFXOWLHVKRZHYHUIRUWKHSXUHµOLSRVWDWLF¶
PRGHO XQOHVV ZH DOVR SUHVXPH ORZHU VRFLDO VWDWXV DQG
HGXFDWLRQFRUUHODWHVZLWKDKLJKHUVHWSRLQWLQWKHOLSRVWDWRU
LQFUHDVHG OHSWLQ UHVLVWDQFH RU WKDW WKHVH VRFLDO IDFWRUV FDQ
HDVLO\RYHUULGHWKHOLSRVWDWLFFRQWUROV\VWHP
6\QWKHVLV
,PSOLFDWLRQV
,QWHUSUHWDWLRQV RI WKH PROHFXODU ELRORJLFDO LQIRUPDWLRQ
GHSHQG RQ WKH PRGHOV DVVXPHG WR H[LVW IRU UHJXODWLRQ RI
IRRGLQWDNHDQGHQHUJ\EDODQFH,ILWLVDVVXPHGWKDWWKHUHLV
D OLSRVWDWLF UHJXODWRU\ V\VWHP GHYHORSPHQWV LQ RXU XQGHU
VWDQGLQJRIWKHPROHFXODUEDVLVRIIHHGLQJZLOOEHLQWHUSUHWHG
ZLWKLQ WKH OLSRVWDWLF IUDPHZRUN <HW WKLV PRGHO LV QRW WKH
RQO\ H[SODQDWLRQ IRU WKH PDQQHU LQ ZKLFK IRRG LQWDNH DQG
HQHUJ\EDODQFHPLJKWEHUHJXODWHG7KHPROHFXODUSDWWHUQV
SUHVXPHGWRXQGHUSLQWKHOLSRVWDWPD\LQIDFWXQGHUSLQRWKHU
UHJXODWRU\V\VWHPV
7KLV UDWKHU VXEWOH GLIIHUHQFH LQ LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI WKH
PROHFXODUGDWDKRZHYHUKDVVRPHLPSRUWDQWUDPLILFDWLRQV
7KHVXFFHVVRISXWDWLYHSKDUPDFRORJLFDODQGRWKHUPDQLSX
ODWLRQVDLPLQJWRWUHDWREHVLW\GHSHQGFULWLFDOO\RQWKHDFWXDO
IUDPHZRUN E\ ZKLFK IRRG LQWDNH DQG HQHUJ\ EDODQFH DUH
UHJXODWHG 0RVW FXUUHQW DWWHPSWV WR GHYHORS SKDUPDFR
ORJLFDO WUHDWPHQWV IRU REHVLW\ DQG SXEOLF KHDOWK HGXFDWLRQ
LQLWLDWLYHVDUHDLPHGDWPRGXODWLQJWKHUDWHRIIRRGLQWDNH
HLWKHUE\VXSSUHVVLQJDSSHWLWHRUE\DIIHFWLQJWKHDEVRUSWLRQ
SURFHVVHV LQ WKH DOLPHQWDU\ WUDFW VR WKDW OHVV HQHUJ\ LV
DEVRUEHG$OWHUQDWLYHO\PDQ\ VWXGLHVDUHGLUHFWHG WRZDUGV
WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI DJHQWV WKDW ZLOO PDQLSXODWH HQHUJ\
H[SHQGLWXUH/RZHOO6SLHJHOPDQ
%RWK WKH GLIIHUHQW PRGHOV OLSRVWDWLF DQG QRQOLSRVWDWLF
LQGLFDWH ZK\ WKHVH SXEOLF KHDOWK DQG SKDUPDFRORJLFDO
LQLWLDWLYHVJHQHUDOO\IDLOWREHVXFFHVVIXOORQJWHUPVROXWLRQV
8QGHUWKHOLSRVWDWLFPRGHOWKLVIDLOXUHLVEHFDXVHWKHWUHDW
PHQWVRQO\VXFFHHGLQGULYLQJWKHV\VWHPLQWRDVWDWHZKHUH
DFWXDOERG\PDVVLVRXWRIOLQHZLWKWKHOLSRVWDWLFVHWSRLQW
+HQFHDWWKHFRQFOXVLRQRIWUHDWPHQWDUHWXUQWRWKHRULJLQDO
ERG\ PDVV GULYHQ E\ K\SHUSKDJLD GXULQJ WKH SHULRG
LPPHGLDWHO\IROORZLQJUHOHDVHIURPFRQVWUDLQWLVLQHYLWDEOH
,QWKHQRQOLSRVWDWLFPRGHOSURORQJHGGLHWDU\UHVWULFWLRQLQ
HQHUJ\ EDODQFH PLJKW DYRLG UHERXQG K\SHUSKDJLD EXW RQ
UHOHDVHIURPUHVWULFWLRQDUHWXUQWRWKHKDELWXDOIRRGLQWDNH
DQG DFWLYLW\ OHYHOV WKDW ZHUH VXVWDLQHG EHIRUH LQWHUYHQWLRQ
ZLOO UHVXOW LQ D UHWXUQ WR WKH SUHYLRXV ERG\ PDVV DQG
FRPSRVLWLRQ
8QGHU WKH QRQOLSRVWDWLF PRGHO WKH RQO\ VXFFHVVIXO
VROXWLRQVDUHOLNHO\WREHWKRVHWKDWFDXVHSHUPDQHQWFKDQJHV
LQ WKH FULWLFDO OLIHVW\OH YDULDEOHV 7KLV SURFHVV ZLOO UHTXLUH
OLIHORQJ GUXJ WUHDWPHQWV PDMRU VRFLDO HQJLQHHULQJ RU
SRZHUIXOEHKDYLRXUDOWKHUDSLHVWRRYHUFRPHWKHLPSHWXVRI
WKH JHQHWLF IDFWRUV WKDW SUREDEO\ XQGHUSLQ WKHVH YDULDEOHV
OHDGLQJWRWKHKLJKJHQHWLFFRPSRQHQWLQWKHGHWHUPLQDWLRQ
RIREHVLW\%DUVKHWDO+RZHYHULIERG\PDVVDQG
FRQGLWLRQDUHUHJXODWHGE\DOLSRVWDWLFV\VWHPWKHQWKHUHLV
DQDOWHUQDWLYHVROXWLRQZKLFKLVWRGHWHUPLQHDQGPRGLI\WKH
SK\VLRORJLFDOEDVLVRIWKHVHWSRLQWLQWKHV\VWHP3KDUPD
FHXWLFDO PRGXODWLRQ RI WKH VHWSRLQW ZLOO EH FRQVLGHUDEO\
PRUH HIIHFWLYH WKDQ PRGXODWLRQ RI LQWDNH DQG H[SHQGLWXUH
EHFDXVHWKHFKDQJHVLQIRRGLQWDNHDQGH[SHQGLWXUHWREULQJ
WKHDFWXDODQGVHWSRLQWOHYHOVLQWRDOLJQPHQWZLOORFFXUDV
GRZQVWUHDPHYHQWVWRWKHPDQLSXODWLRQDQGDWWKHHQGRIWKH
PDQLSXODWLRQWKHUHZLOOEHQRK\SHUSKDJLFUHERXQGUHVSRQVH
EHFDXVHDFWXDODQGVHWSRLQWERG\PDVVHVZLOOEHLQEDODQFH
,I D PHWKRG RI SHUPDQHQWO\ UHVHWWLQJ WKH OLSRVWDW VHWSRLQW
FRXOG EH GHYLVHG WKHQ D SHUPDQHQW WUHDWPHQW PLJKW DOVR
EH SRVVLEOH &XUUHQWO\ KRZHYHU WKHUH DSSHDUV WR EH D
IXQGDPHQWDOPLVPDWFKLQWKHPRGHUQFRQVHQVXVRIKRZWKH
V\VWHP ZRUNV LH GRPLQDWHG E\ OLSRVWDWLF PRGHOV DQG
WKH VWUDWHJLHV EHLQJ GHYHORSHG WR WU\ WR PDQLSXODWH WKH
V\VWHP GLUHFW PDQLSXODWLRQV RI LQWDNH DQG H[SHQGLWXUH E\
SKDUPDFHXWLFDORUSXEOLFKHDOWKPHDQV
)LQDOO\ LW LV LPSRUWDQW WR UHFRJQLVH WKDW ZH GR QRW
DQWLFLSDWHWKDWDOODQLPDOVZLOOFRQIRUPWRDQ\VLQJOHRQHRI
WKHVH LQWHUSUHWLYH PRGHOV ,W LV OLNHO\ WKDW GLIIHUHQW VSHFLHV
XQGHU GLIIHUHQW HYROXWLRQDU\ VFHQDULRV ZLOO KDYH HYROYHG
V\VWHPV DSSURSULDWH WR WKHLU RZQ FLUFXPVWDQFHV ,Q VRPH
VSHFLHV WKHVH V\VWHPV ZLOO EH OLSRVWDWLF V\VWHPV ZKHUH
ERG\ PDVVSOD\VDUROHLQWKHUHJXODWRU\IUDPHZRUNEXWLQ
RWKHU VSHFLHV WKH V\VWHP PD\ EH UHJXODWHG SULPDULO\ QRQ
OLSRVWDWLFDOO\E\HQHUJ\GHILFLWV$SUHYLRXVUHYLHZ0HUFHU
6SHDNPDQ KLJKOLJKWHG ZK\ VXFK GLIIHUHQFHV LQ
UHJXODWLRQPLJKWEHDQWLFLSDWHGLQSDUWLFXODUEHWZHHQVPDOO
DQGODUJHDQLPDOV,QVPDOODQLPDOVUHJXODWLRQRIERG\PDVV
IDWQHVVPD\EHDNH\LVVXHEHFDXVHWKHVFDOLQJRIHQHUJ\
GHPDQGV WR ERG\ PDVV FRPELQHG ZLWK WKH VFDOLQJ RI
SRWHQWLDOIDWVWRUDJHWRERG\PDVVPHDQVWKDWWKHVHDQLPDOV
KDYHOLWWOHPDUJLQRIHUURUIRUVXUYLYDOGXULQJSHULRGVRIORZ
IRRG VXSSO\ 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH\ ZLOO EH FRPPRQO\
VXVFHSWLEOHWRSUHGDWLRQWKDWPD\DOVREHPDVVGHSHQGHQW,Q
WKLVVLWXDWLRQZHPLJKWDQWLFLSDWHHYROXWLRQZRXOGIDYRXUD
V\VWHP DOORZLQJ WKH UHJXODWLRQ RI ERG\ PDVV ZLWKLQ VWULFW
ERXQGVDLPLQJWRDYRLGVWDUYDWLRQDQGSUHGDWLRQULVNVLHD
OLSRVWDW ,Q FRQWUDVW ODUJH DQLPDOV KDYH PXFK JUHDWHU
VWDUYDWLRQWROHUDQFHDQGDUHDOVROHVVOLNHO\WREHDIIHFWHGE\
PDVVGHSHQGHQWSUHGDWLRQULVNV)RUWKHVHDQLPDOVKDYLQJD
VWURQJ LQSXW IURP ERG\ PDVV UHJXODWLQJ HQHUJ\ EDODQFH
-56SHDNPDQHWDO
VHHPV OHVV OLNHO\ WR HYROYH DQG D V\VWHP EDVHGRQHQHUJ\
GHILFLWPLJKWEHPRUHSUREDEOH
$VZHKDYHSRLQWHGRXWSUHYLRXVO\PDQLVDODUJHDQLPDO
EXW WKH DQLPDO PRGHOV WKDW ZH URXWLQHO\ HPSOR\ WR WHDVH
DSDUW WKH PROHFXODU HYHQWV XQGHUSLQQLQJ WKH UHJXODWLRQ
RI HQHUJ\ EDODQFH JHQHUDOO\ ZHLJK WZR WR WKUHH RUGHUV RI
PDJQLWXGHOHVV*LYHQWKHGLIIHUHQWHYROXWLRQDU\SUHVVXUHVLQ
UHODWLRQWRERG\VL]HWKLVPLVPDWFKPD\EHDVHULRXVSUREOHP
KLQGHULQJWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIDIXOOHUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKH
UHJXODWRU\V\VWHPLQPDQ6LQFHHYROXWLRQKDVKDGWRZRUN
ZLWK D SK\ORJHQHWLFDOO\FRQVWUDLQHG VXEVWUDWH WKH EDVLF
PROHFXODU IUDPHZRUN XQGHUSLQQLQJ WKH FRQWURO RI IRRG
LQWDNHLQGLIIHUHQWVSHFLHVPD\EHODUJHO\WKHVDPHEXWWKH
GHWDLOVRIWKHPDQQHULQZKLFKWKHV\VWHPVRSHUDWHPD\EH
VXEWO\GLIIHUHQW(VWDEOLVKLQJDSSURSULDWHDQLPDOPRGHOVWKDW
DFFXUDWHO\PLPLFZKDWLVJRLQJRQLQPDQPD\WKHUHIRUHEH
FUXFLDOLQWKHSURFHVVRIGHYHORSLQJHIIHFWLYHWKHUDSLHV
5HIHUHQFHV
$GDPL*)&DPSRVWDQR$5DYHUD*&HOOD)/LJDV%
5HODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ ERG\ PDVV LQGH[ DQG VHUXP OHSWLQ
FRQFHQWUDWLRQ'LDEHWHV1XWULWLRQDQG0HWDEROLVP±
$KLPD56&DPSRVWDQR$5DYHUD*&HOOD) /LJDV%
5ROHRIOHSWLQLQWKHQHXURHQGRFULQHUHVSRQVHWRIDVWLQJ1DWXUH
±
$KUHQ%0DQVVRQ6*LQJHULFK5/+DYHO3-5HJXODWLRQ
RI SODVPD OHSWLQ LQ PLFH ,QIOXHQFH RI DJH KLJKIDW GLHW DQG
IDVWLQJ$PHULFDQ-RXUQDORI3K\VLRORJ\5±5
$QGHUVVRQ%:\UZLFND:7KHHOLFLWDWLRQRIDGULQNLQJ
PRWRU FRQGLWLRQHG UHDFWLRQ E\ HOHFWULFDO VWLPXODWLRQ RI WKH
µGULQNLQJDUHD¶LQWKHJRDW$FWD3K\VLRORJLFD6FDQGLQDYLFD
±
$QQDQG%.%UREHFN-5+\SRWKDODPLFFRQWURORIIRRG
LQWDNHLQUDWVDQGFDWV<DOH-RXUQDORI%LRORJ\DQG0HGLFLQH
±
%DUVK *6 )DURRTL 6, 2¶5DKLOO\ 6 *HQHWLFV RI ERG\
ZHLJKWUHJXODWLRQ1DWXUH±
%DVNLQ '* :LOFR[ %- )LJOHZLF '3 'RUVD '0 ,QVXOLQ DQG LQVXOLQOLNH JURZWK IDFWRUV LQ WKH &16 7UHQGV LQ
1HXURVFLHQFH±
%HQQHWW),$UHVHUXPOHSWLQFRUUHODWLRQVLQIOXHQFHGE\IDW
SODFHPHQW" 5HSO\ $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO 1XWULWLRQ ±
%HQQHWW),0F)DUODQH$QGHUVRQ1:LONV5/XNH$&RRSHU56
)RUUHVWHU7(/HSWLQFRQFHQWUDWLRQLQZRPHQLVLQIOXHQFHG
E\UHJLRQDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIDGLSRVHWLVVXH$PHULFDQ-RXUQDORI
&OLQLFDO1XWULWLRQ±
%RXFKDUG & 7UHPEOD\ $ 'HVSUHV -3 1DGHDX $ /XSLHQ 3-
7KHULDXOW * 'XVVDXOW - 0RRUMDQL 6 3LQDXOW 6 )RXUQLHU *
7KHUHVSRQVHWRORQJWHUPRYHUIHHGLQJLQLGHQWLFDOWZLQV
1HZ(QJODQG-RXUQDORI0HGLFLQH±
%UREHUJHU&-RKDQVHQ--RKDQVVRQ&6FKDOOLQJ0+ROLPDQ6
7KHQHXURSHSWLGH<DJRXWLJHQHUHODWHGSURWHLQ$&53
EUDLQFLUFXLWU\LQQRUPDODQRUHFWLFDQGPRQRVRGLXPJOXWDPDWH
WUHDWHGPLFH3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH1DWLRQDO$FDGHP\RI6FLHQFHV
86$±
%XOWPDQ 6- 0LFKDXG (- :R\FKLN 53 0ROHFXODU
FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQRIWKHPRXVHDJRXWLORFXV&HOO
&DPSILHOG/$6PLWK)-%XUQ32%SURWHLQ$KRUPRQDO
FRQWUROOHU RI FHQWUDO QHXUDO QHWZRUNV PHGLDWLQJ EHKDYLRUDO
PHWDEROLF DQG QHXURHQGRFULQH UHVSRQVHV (QGRFULQRORJ\ DQG
0HWDEROLVP±
&DPSILHOG /$ 6PLWK )- *XLVH] < 'HYRV 5 %XUQ 3 5HFRPELQDQW PRXVH RE SURWHLQ HYLGHQFH IRU D SHULSKHUDO
VLJQDO OLQNLQJ DGLSRVLW\ DQG FHQWUDO QHXUDO QHWZRUNV 6FLHQFH
±
&DPSRVWDQR$*ULOOR*%HVVDULRQH''H*UDQGL5$GDPL*)
5HODWLRQVKLSV RI VHUXP OHSWLQ WR ERG\ FRPSRVLWLRQ DQG
UHVWLQJ HQHUJ\ H[SHQGLWXUH +RUPRQH DQG 0HWDEROLF 5HVHDUFK
±
&DVV\6'ULGL63LFDUG07DRXLV0/HSWLQLQFKLFNHQ
3URGXFWLRQV$QLPDOHV±
&KHKDE )( /LP 0( /X 5+ &RUUHFWLRQ RI WKH
VWHULOLW\ GHIHFWLQKRPR]\JRXVREHVHIHPDOHPLFHE\WUHDWPHQW
ZLWK WKH KXPDQ UHFRPELQDQW OHSWLQ 1DWXUH *HQHWLFV ±
&KHQ 3 /L & +DVNHOO/XHYDQR & &RQH 5' 6PLWK 06
$OWHUHG H[SUHVVLRQ RI DJRXWLUHODWHG SURWHLQ DQG LWV
FRORFDOL]DWLRQ ZLWK QHXURSHSWLGH < LQ WKH DUFXDWH QXFOHXV
RI WKH K\SRWKDODPXV GXULQJ ODFWDWLRQ (QGRFULQRORJ\ ±
&KHXQJ&&&OLIWRQ'.6WHLQHU5$3URRSLRPHODQRFRUWLQ
QHXURQV DUH GLUHFW WDUJHWV IRU OHSWLQ LQ WKH K\SRWKDODPXV
(QGRFULQRORJ\±
&ODUN*7KHXVHRIWKH+RUVOH\&ODUNHLQVWUXPHQWRQWKHUDW
6FLHQFH
&OHPHQW.9DLVVH&/DKORX1&DEURO63HOORX[9&DVVDWR'
*RXUPHOHQ0'LQD&&KDPED]-/DFRUWH-0%DVGHYDQW$
%RXJQHUHV 3 /HERXF < )URJXHO 3 *X\*UDQG % $
PXWDWLRQLQWKHKXPDQOHSWLQUHFHSWRUJHQHFDXVHVREHVLW\DQG
SLWXLWDU\G\VIXQFWLRQ1DWXUH±
&ROHPDQ '/ (IIHFWVRI SDUDELRVLV RIREHVH ZLWK GLDEHWHV
DQGQRUPDOPLFH'LDEHWRORJLD±
&ROHPDQ '/ 2EHVH DQG GLDEHWHV 7ZR PXWDQW JHQHV
FDXVLQJ GLDEHWHVREHVLW\ V\QGURPHV LQ PLFH 'LDEHWRORJLD ±
&ROOLQV 6 .XKQ &0 3HWUR $( 6ZLFN $* &KUXQ\N %$ 6XUZLW 565ROHRIOHSWLQLQIDWUHJXODWLRQ1DWXUH
&RQVLGLQH596LQKD0.+HLPDQ0/.ULDXFLXQDV$6WHSKHQV
7:1\FH052KDQQHVLDQ-30DUFR&&0F.HH/-%DXHU7/
&DUR-)6HUXPLPPXQRUHDFWLYHOHSWLQFRQFHQWUDWLRQV
LQ QRUPDOZHLJKW DQG REHVH KXPDQV 1HZ (QJODQG -RXUQDO RI
0HGLFLQH±
&RSSDFN 6: 3LQNQH\ -+ 0RKDPHG$OL 9 /HSWLQ
SURGXFWLRQLQKXPDQDGLSRVHWLVVXH3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH1XWULWLRQ
6RFLHW\±
GH/HFFD/.LOGXII763H\URQ&*DR;%)R\H3('DQLHOVRQ
3( )XNXKDUD & %DWWHQEHUJ (/) *DXWYLN 97 %DUWOHWW )6
)UDQNHO :1 9DQ 'HQ 3RO $1 %ORRP )( *DXWYLN .0 6XWFOLIIH -* 7KH K\SRFUHWLQV K\SRWKDODPXVVSHFLILF
SHSWLGHV ZLWK QHXURH[FLWDWRU\ DFWLYLW\ 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH
1DWLRQDO$FDGHP\RI6FLHQFHV86$±
'RULQJ + HW DO /HSWLQ HIIHFWV LQ IUHHIHHGLQJ DQG
IRRGUHVWULFWHG PLFH 3IOXJHUV $UFKLY ± (XURSHDQ -RXUQDO RI
3K\VLRORJ\
'RULQJ + HW DO /HSWLQ VHOHFWLYHO\ LQFUHDVHV HQHUJ\
H[SHQGLWXUHRIIRRGUHVWULFWHGOHDQPLFH,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDO
RI2EHVLW\±
(OLD0D(QHUJ\H[SHQGLWXUHLQWKHZKROHERG\,Q(QHUJ\
0HWDEROLVP 7LVVXH 'HWHUPLQDQWV DQG &HOOXODU &RUROODULHV
SS ± >-0 .LQQH\ DQG +1 7XFNHU HGLWRUV@ 1HZ <RUN
5DYHQ
(OLD0E2UJDQDQGWLVVXHFRQWULEXWLRQVWRPHWDEROLFUDWH
,Q (QHUJ\ 0HWDEROLVP 7LVVXH 'HWHUPLQDQWV DQG &HOOXODU
&RUROODULHV SS ± >-0 .LQQH\ DQG +1 7XFNHU HGLWRUV@
1HZ<RUN5DYHQ
(OLD 0 6WXEEV 5- +HQU\ &-. 'LIIHUHQFHV LQ IDW
FDUERK\GUDWH DQG SURWHLQ PHWDEROLVP EHWZHHQ OHDQ DQG REHVH
VXEMHFWV XQGHUJRLQJ WRWDO VWDUYDWLRQ 2EHVLW\ 5HVHDUFK ±
3HUVSHFWLYHVLQWKHVWXG\RIIRRGLQWDNH
(OLDV&)/HH&.HOO\-$VFKNHQDVL&$KLPD56&RXFH\UR35
.XKDU 0- 6DSHU &% (OPTXLVW -. /HSWLQ DFWLYDWHV
K\SRWKDODPLF &$57 QHXURQV SURMHFWLQJ WR WKH VSLQDO FRUG
1HXURQ
(ULFNVRQ -& $KLPD 56 +ROORSHWHU * )OLHU -6 3DOPLWHU 5'
(QGRFULQH IXQFWLRQ RI QHXURSHSWLGH < NQRFNRXW PLFH
5HJXODWRU\3HSWLGHV±
(YDQV(06DXQGHUV0-6SDQR0$$UQJULPVVRQ6$/HZLV5'
&XUHWRQ.-%RG\FRPSRVLWLRQFKDQJHVZLWKGLHWDQG
H[HUFLVH LQ REHVH ZRPHQ D FRPSDULVRQ RI HVWLPDWHV IURP
FOLQLFDOPHWKRGVDQGDFRPSDUWPHQWPRGHO$PHULFDQ-RXUQDO
RI&OLQLFDO1XWULWLRQ±
)DURRTL 6 5DX + :KLWHKHDG - 2¶5DKLOO\ 6 RE JHQH
PXWDWLRQV DQG KXPDQ REHVLW\ 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH 1XWULWLRQ
6RFLHW\±
)LHOG - %HOGLQJ +6 0DUWLQ $: $Q DQDO\VLV RI WKH
UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ EDVDO PHWDEROLVP DQG VXPPDWHG WLVVXH
UHVSLURPDWLRQLQWKHUDW,7KHSRVWSXEHUWDODOELQRUDW-RXUQDO
RI&HOOXODUDQG&RPSDUDWLYH3K\VLRORJ\±
)RUEHV*%+XPDQ%RG\&RPSRVLWLRQ1HZ<RUN6SULQJHU
9HUODJ
)UHGHULFK 5& +DPDQQ $ $QGHUVRQ 6 /ROOPDQQ % /RZHOO %%
)OLHU -6 /HSWLQ OHYHOV UHIOHFW ERG\ OLSLG FRQWHQW LQ
PLFH ± HYLGHQFH IRU GLHW LQGXFHG UHVLVWDQFH WR OHSWLQ DFWLRQ
1DWXUH0HGLFLQH±
)ULHGPDQ-02EHVLW\LQWKHQHZPLOOHQQLXP1DWXUH
±
)ULHGPDQ-0+DODDV-//HSWLQDQGWKHUHJXODWLRQRIERG\
ZHLJKWLQPDPPDOV1DWXUH±
*DQW],%DJQRO'/X;<.DHOLQ&%'D\+(2OOPDQ0*DQW]
, $NLO + %DUVK *6 :DWVRQ 6- $QDWRP\ RI DQ
HQGRJHQRXV DQWDJRQLVW UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ $JRXWLUHODWHG
SURWHLQ DQG SURRSLRPHODQRFRUWLQ LQ EUDLQ -RXUQDO RI 1HXUR
VFLHQFH5&
*DUURZ -6 2EHVLW\ DQG 5HODWHG 'LVHDVHV /RQGRQ
&KXUFKLOO/LYLQJVWRQH
*LEEV-<RXQJ5&6PLWK*3&KROHF\VWRNLQLQGHFUHDVHV
IRRG LQWDNH LQ UDWV -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH 3K\VLRORJ\ DQG
3V\FKRORJ\±
*UHHQEHUJ -$ 2UJDQ PHWDEROLF UDWHV DQG DJLQJ WZR
K\SRWKHVHV0HGLFDO+\SRWKHVHV±
*ULQVSRRQ6*XOLFN7 $VNDUL+/DQGW0/HH.$QGHUVRQ(
0D =09LJQDWL/%RZVKHU5+HU]RJ'.OLEDQVNL$
6HUXPOHSWLQOHYHOVLQZRPHQZLWKDQRUH[LDQHUYRVD-RXUQDORI
&OLQLFDO(QGRFULQRORJ\DQG0HWDEROLVP±
+DKQ 70 %UHLQLQJHU -) %DVNLQ '* 6FKZDUW] 0: &RH[SUHVVLRQ RI $JUS DQG 13< LQ IDVWLQJDFWLYDWHG K\SRWKD
ODPLFQHXURQV1DWXUH1HXURVFLHQFH±
+DODDV -& &RDMLZDOD .6 0DIIHL 0 &RKHQ 6/ &KDLW %7
5DELQRZLW]'/DOORQH5/%XUOH\6.)ULHGPDQQ-0
:HLJKWUHGXFLQJ HIIHFWV RI WKH SODVPD SURWHLQ HQFRGHG E\ WKH
REHVHJHQH6FLHQFH±
+DODDV -/ %RR]HU & %ODLU:HVW - )LGDKXVHLQ 1 'HQWRQ '$ )ULHGPDQ -0 3K\VLRORJLFDO UHVSRQVH WR ORQJWHUP
SHULSKHUDO DQG FHQWUDO OHSWLQ LQIXVLRQ LQ OHDQ DQG REHVH
PLFH 3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH1DWLRQDO$FDGHP\RI6FLHQFHV86$
±
+DPDQQ$0DWWKDHL65HJXODWLRQRIHQHUJ\EDODQFHE\
OHSWLQ([SHULPHQWDODQG&OLQLFDO(QGRFULQRORJ\DQG'LDEHWHV
±
+DYHO3-6WHUQ-6.HLP1/&LUFXODWLQJOHSWLQFRQFHQ
WUDWLRQV DUH UHODWHG WR HDWLQJ EHKDYLRU DQG WR DSSHWLWH GXULQJ
HQHUJ\UHVWULFWLRQLQZRPHQ)$6(%-RXUQDO
+HEHEUDQG - %OXP :) %DUWK 1 &RQHUV + (QJODUR 3 -XXO $
=LHJOHU $ :DUQNH $ 5DVFKHU : 5HPVFKPLGW + /HSWLQOHYHOVLQSDWLHQWVZLWKDQRUH[LDQHUYRVDDUHUHGXFHGLQWKH
DFXWH VWDJH DQG HOHYDWHG XSRQ VKRUWWHUP ZHLJKW UHVWRUDWLRQ
0ROHFXODU3V\FKLDWU\±
+HUSHUW]6:DJQHU5$OEHUV1%OXP:)3HO]%/DQJNDIHO0
.RSS:+HQQLQJ$2EHUVWH%HUJKDXV&0DQQ.6HQI:
+HEHEUDQG - &LUFDGLDQ SODVPD OHSWLQ OHYHOV LQ SDWLHQWV
ZLWKDQRUH[LDQHUYRVD5HODWLRQWRLQVXOLQDQGFRUWLVRO+RUPRQH
5HVHDUFK±
+HUSHUW]6:DJQHU53HO]%%OXP:+HEHEUDQG-0DQQ.
6HQI : 'LVSURSRUWLRQDOO\ ORZ VHUXP OHSWLQ OHYHOV DQG
DEROLWLRQ RI QRFWXUQDO ULVH LQ SDWLHQWV ZLWK DQRUH[LD QHUYRVD
'LDEHWHV
+HWKULQJWRQ$:5DQVRQ6:+\SRWKDODPLFOHVLRQVDQG
DGLSRVLW\LQWKHUDW$QDWRPLFDO5HFRUG±
+HWKULQJWRQ$:5DQVRQ6:7KHVSRQWDQHRXVDFWLYLW\
DQG IRRG LQWDNH RI UDWV ZLWK K\SRWKDODPLF OHVLRQV $PHULFDQ
-RXUQDORI3K\VLRORJ\±
+LFNH\06&RQVLGLQH59,VUDHO5*0DKDU7/0F&DPPRQ05
7\QGDOO*/+RXPDUG-$&DUR-)/HSWLQLVUHODWHGWR
ERG\IDWFRQWHQWLQPDOHGLVWDQFHUXQQHUV$PHULFDQ-RXUQDORI
3K\VLRORJ\(±(
+LQQH\$%HFNHU,+HLEXOW21RWWHERP.6FKPLGW$=LHJOHU$
0D\HU+6LHJIULHG:%OXP:)5HPVFKPLGW++HEHEUDQG
-6\VWHPDWLFPXWDWLRQVFUHHQLQJRIWKHSURRSLRPHODQR
FRUWLQJHQH,GHQWLILFDWLRQRIVHYHUDOJHQHWLFYDULDQWVLQFOXGLQJ
WKUHHGLIIHUHQWLQVHUWLRQVRQHQRQVHQVHDQGWZRPLVVHQVHSRLQW
PXWDWLRQVLQSUREDQGVRIGLIIHUHQWZHLJKWH[WUHPHV-RXUQDORI
&OLQLFDO(QGRFULQRORJ\DQG0HWDEROLVP±
+LUYRQHQ 0' .HHVH\ 5( 7KH UHJXODWLRQ RI ERG\
ZHLJKW VHWSRLQWV DQG REHVLW\ +DQGERRN RI ([SHULPHQWDO
3KDUPDFRORJ\±
+RHEHO %* 7HLWHOEDXP 3 :HLJKW UHJXODWLRQ LQ QRUPDO
DQG K\SRWKDODPLF K\SHUSKDJLF UDWV -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH
3K\VLRORJ\DQG3V\FKRORJ\±
+RUYDWK7/'LDQR66RWRQ\L3+HLPDQ07VFKRS0
0LQLUHYLHZ JKUHOLQ DQG WKH UHJXODWLRQ RI HQHUJ\ EDODQFH ± D
K\SRWKDODPLFSHUVSHFWLYH(QGRFULQRORJ\±
-RKQVRQ 06 7KRPVRQ 6& 6SHDNPDQ -5 /LPLWV WR
VXVWDLQHG HQHUJ\ LQWDNH ,, ,QWHUUHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ UHVWLQJ
PHWDEROLF UDWH OLIHKLVWRU\ WUDLWV DQG PRUSKRORJ\ LQ 0XV
PXVFXOXV-RXUQDORI([SHULPHQWDO%LRORJ\±
.DOUD 63 'XEH 0* 6DKX $ 3KHOSV &3 .DOUD 3 1HXURSHSWLGH < VHFUHWLRQ LQFUHDVHV LQ WKH SDUDYHQWULFXODU
QXFOHXV LQ DVVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK LQFUHDVHG DSSHWLWH IRU IRRG
3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH 1DWLRQDO $FDGHP\ RI 6FLHQFHV 86$ ±
.HHVH\ 5( +LUYRQHQ 0' %RG\ ZHLJKW VHWSRLQWV
GHWHUPLQDWLRQ DQG DGMXVWPHQW -RXUQDO RI 1XWULWLRQ 6±6
.HQQHG\ *& 7KH UROH RI GHSRW IDW LQ WKH K\SRWKDODPLF
FRQWURORIIRRGLQWDNHLQWKHUDW3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH5R\DO6RFLHW\
RI/RQGRQ%±
.RODF]\QVNL-:&RQVLGLQH592KDQQHVLDQ-30DUFR&&1\FH
05 2SHQWDQRYD , 6LQKD 0. =KDQJ 3/ &DUR -) 5HVSRQVHVRIOHSWLQWRIDVWLQJDQGUHIHHGLQJLQPDQ(YLGHQFHIRU
GXDO PHFKDQLVP RI UHJXODWLRQ RI FLUFXODWLQJ OHSWLQ OHYHOV
'LDEHWHV
.UHEV+$%RG\VL]HDQGWLVVXHUHVSLUDWLRQ%LRFKLPLFDHW
%LRSK\VLFDDFWD
.ULVWHQVHQ 3 -XGJH 0( 7KLP 8 5LEHO 8 &KULVWMDQVHQ .1
:XOII %6&ODXVHQ-7-HQVH3%0DGVHQ2'9UDQJ1/DUVHQ
3-+DVWUXS6+\SRWKDODPLF&$57LVDQHZDQRUHFWLF
SHSWLGHUHJXODWHGE\OHSWLQ1DWXUH±
.UXGH+%LHEHUPDQQ+/XFN:+RUQ5%UDEDQW**UXWHUV$
6HYHUHHDUO\RQVHWREHVLW\DGUHQDOLQVXIILFLHQF\DQGUHG
KDLU SLJPHQWDWLRQ FDXVHG E\ 320& PXWDWLRQV LQ KXPDQV
1DWXUH*HQHWLFV±
-56SHDNPDQHWDO
/DKORX 1 /DQGDLV 3 'H%RLVVLHX ' %RXJQHUHV 3) &LUFXODWLQJ OHSWLQ LQ QRUPDO FKLOGUHQ DQG GXULQJ WKH G\QDPLF
SKDVH RI MXYHQLOH REHVLW\ ± 5HODWLRQ WR ERG\ IDWQHVV HQHUJ\
PHWDEROLVPFDORULFLQWDNHDQGVH[XDOGLPRUSKLVP'LDEHWHV
±
/HLEHO 5 5RVHQEDXP 0 +LUVFK - D &KDQJHV LQ HQHUJ\
H[SHQGLWXUH UHVXOWLQJ IURP DOWHUHG ERG\ ZHLJKW 1HZ (QJODQG
-RXUQDORI0HGLFLQH
/HLEHO5/5RVHQEDXP0+LUVFK-E&KDQJHVLQHQHUJ\
H[SHQGLWXUH UHVXOWLQJ IURP DOWHUHG ERG\ZHLJKW 1HZ (QJODQG
-RXUQDORI0HGLFLQH±
/HYLQ %( 0HWDEROLF VHQVRUV YLHZLQJ JOXFRVH VHQVLQJ
QHXURQV IURP D EURDGHU SHUVSHFWLYH 3K\VLRORJ\ DQG %HKDYLRU
±
/HYLQ%(.HHVH\5('HIHQVHRIGLIIHULQJERG\ZHLJKW
VHWSRLQWV LQ GLHWLQGXFHG REHVH DQG UHVLVWDQW UDWV $PHULFDQ
-RXUQDORI3K\VLRORJ\5±5
/L+0DWKHQ\07XPHU16FDUSDFH3-(IIHFWVRIDJLQJ
DQG IDVWLQJ RQ WKH UHJXODWLRQ RI OHSWLQ JHQH H[SUHVVLRQ DQG
K\SRWKDODPLFQHXURSHSWLGH<JHQHH[SUHVVLRQ)$6(%-RXUQDO
/RZHOO %% 6SLHJHOPDQ %0 7RZDUGV D PROHFXODU
XQGHUVWDQGLQJRIDGDSWLYHWKHUPRJHQHVLV1DWXUH±
/XKHVKL*1*DUGQHU-'5XVKIRUWK'$/RXGRQ$65RWKZHOO
1-/HSWLQDFWLRQVRQIRRGLQWDNHDQGERG\WHPSHUDWXUH
DUHPHGLDWHGE\,/±3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH1DWLRQDO$FDGHP\RI
6FLHQFHV86$±
0DHV ++ 1HDOH 0& (DYHV /- *HQHWLF DQG HQYLURQ
PHQWDO IDFWRUV LQ UHODWLYH ERG\ ZHLJKW DQG KXPDQ DGLSRVLW\
%HKDYLRU*HQHWLFV±
0DIIHL0 +DODDV-5DYXVVLQ (3UDWOH\5(/HH *+=KDQJ<
)HL +.LP6/DOORQH55DQJDQDWKDQ6.HUQ3$)ULHGPDQ
-0/HSWLQOHYHOVRQKXPDQDQGURGHQW±PHDVXUHPHQWRI
SODVPDOHSWLQDQG2E51$LQREHVHDQGZHLJKWUHGXFHGVXEMHFWV
1DWXUH0HGLFLQH±
0DUJXOHV'/2OGV-,GHQWLFDOµIHHGLQJ¶DQGµUHZDUGLQJ¶
V\VWHPVLQWKHODWHUDOK\SRWKDODPXVRIUDWV6FLHQFH±
0D\HU $ 5HJXODWLRQ RI HQHUJ\ LQWDNH DQG ERG\ ZHLJKW
WKH JOXFRVWDWLF WKHRU\ DQG WKH OLSRVWDWLF K\SRWKHVLV $QQDOV RI
WKH1HZ<RUN$FDGHP\RI6FLHQFH±
0HOOLQNRII 6 )UDQNOLQ 0 %R\OH ' *HLSHOO * 5HOD
WLRQVKLSEHWZHHQVHUXPDPLQRDFLGFRQFHQWUDWLRQDQGIOXFWXDWLRQ
LQDSSHWLWH-RXUQDORI$SSOLHG3K\VLRORJ\±
0HUFHU -* 5HJXODWLRQ RI DSSHWLWH DQG ERG\ ZHLJKW LQ
VHDVRQDO PDPPDOV&RPSDUDWLYH%LRFKHPLVWU\ DQG3K\VLRORJ\
&±
0HUFHU-*+RJJDUG1/DZUHQFH&%5D\QHU'97UD\KXUQ3
D/RFDOL]DWLRQRIOHSWLQUHFHSWRU2%5JHQHH[SUHVVLRQ
LQPRXVHEUDLQE\LQVLWXK\EULGL]DWLRQ-RXUQDORI3K\VLRORJ\
3
0HUFHU-*+RJJDUG1:LOOLDPV/0/DZUHQFH&%+DQQDK/7
0RUJDQ 3- 7UD\KXUQ 3 E &RH[SUHVVLRQ RI OHSWLQ
UHFHSWRU DQG SUHSURQHXURSHSWLGH < P51$ LQ DUFXDWH QXFOHXV
RI PRXVH K\SRWKDODPXV -RXUQDO RI 1HXURHQGRFULQRORJ\ ±
0HUFHU-*+RJJDUG1:LOOLDPV/0/DZUHQFH&%+DQQDK/7
7UD\KXUQ3F/RFDOL]DWLRQRIOHSWLQUHFHSWRUP51$DQG
WKH ORQJ IRUP VSOLFH YDULDQW 2E5E LQ PRXVH K\SRWKDODPXV
DQGDGMDFHQWEUDLQUHJLRQVE\LQVLWXK\EULGL]DWLRQ)(%6/HWWHUV
±
0HUFHU-*0RDU.0+RJJDUG1/RFDOL]DWLRQRIOHSWLQ
UHFHSWRU 2E5 PHVVHQJHU ULERQXFOHLF DFLG LQ WKH URGHQW
KLQGEUDLQ(QGRFULQRORJ\±
0HUFHU-*0RDU.0/RJLH7-)LQGOD\3$$GDP&/0RUJDQ
3-6HDVRQDOO\LQDSSURSULDWHERG\ZHLJKWLQGXFHGE\IRRG
UHVWULFWLRQ HIIHFW RQ K\SRWKDODPLF JHQH H[SUHVVLRQ LQ PDOH
6LEHULDQKDPVWHUV(QGRFULQRORJ\±
0HUFHU -* 6SHDNPDQ -5 +\SRWKDODPLF QHXURSHSWLGH
PHFKDQLVPVIRUUHJXODWLQJHQHUJ\EDODQFHIURPURGHQWPRGHOV
WRKXPDQREHVLW\1HXURVFLHQFHDQG%LREHKDYLRUDO5HYLHZV
±
0LOOHU0'XKO'09ULHOLQJ+&RUGHV632OOPDQQ00:LQNHV
%0 %DUVK *6 &ORQLQJ RI WKH PRXVH DJRXWL JHQH
SUHGLFWV D VHFUHWHG SURWHLQ XELTXLWRXVO\ H[SUHVVHG LQ PLFH
FDUU\LQJWKHOHWKDO\HOORZPXWDWLRQ*HQHVDQG'HYHORSPHQW
±
0L\DZDNL7+RVRGD.0DVX]DNL+1DWVXL.+DQDRND,+LUDRND
-0DWVXRND10DWVXGD-,0XUDWD00DWVXR76XJDZDUD$
1LVKL65HJXODWLRQRISODVPDOHSWLQOHYHOVE\QXWULWLRQDO
VWDWXVLQKXPDQV'LDEHWHV
0L]XQR 70 0REEV &9 +\SRWKDODPLF DJRXWLUHODWHG
SURWHLQ PHVVHQJHU ULERQXFOHLF DFLG LV LQKLELWHG E\ OHSWLQ DQG
VWLPXODWHGE\IHHGLQJ(QGRFULQRORJ\±
0RQWDJXH &7 )DURRTL ,6 :KLWHKHDG -3 6RRV 0$ 5DX +
:DUHKDP1-6HZWHU&3'LJE\-(0RKDPPHG61+XUVW-$
&KHHWKDP&+(DUOH\$5%DUQHWW$+3ULQV-%2¶5DKLOO\6
&RQJHQLWDO OHSWLQ GHILFLHQF\ LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK VHYHUH
HDUO\RQVHWREHVLW\LQKXPDQV1DWXUH±
0RQWDJXH&73ULQV-%6DQGHUV/=KDQJ-/6HZWHU&3'LJE\-
%\UQH&'2¶5DKLOO\6'HSRWUHODWHGJHQHH[SUHVVLRQ
LQ KXPDQ VXEFXWDQHRXV DQG RPHQWDO DGLSRF\WHV 'LDEHWHV ±
0RUDQ7+&KROHF\VWRNLQLQDQGVDWLHW\FXUUHQWSHUVSHFWLYHV
1XWULWLRQ±
0RUJDQ 3- 0HUFHU -* 7KH UHJXODWLRQ RI ERG\ ZHLJKW
OHVVRQVIURPWKHVHDVRQDODQLPDO3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH1XWULWLRQ
6RFLHW\±
0XHOOHU:*UHJRLUH)06WDQKRSH./0REEV&90L]XQR70
:DUGHQ &+ 6WHUQ -6 +DYHO 3- (YLGHQFH WKDW
JOXFRVH PHWDEROLVPUHJXODWHVOHSWLQVHFUHWLRQIURPFXOWXUDOUDW
DGLSRF\WHV(QGRFULQRORJ\±
2OOPDQQ00:LOVRQ%'<DQJ<..HUQV-$&KHQ<5*DQW],
%DUVK *6 $QWDJRQLVP RI FHQWUDO PHODQRFRUWLQ
UHFHSWRUVLQYLWURDQGLQYLYRE\$JRXWLUHODWHGSURWHLQ6FLHQFH
±
3HOOH\PRXQWHU0$&XOOHQ 0- %DNHU0% +HFKW5 :LQWHUV'
%RRQH 7 &ROOLQV ) (IIHFWV RI WKH REHVH JHQH
SURGXFW RQ ERG\ ZHLJKW UHJXODWLRQ LQ RERE PLFH 6FLHQFH
±
3RZOH\7/.HHVH\5(5HODWLRQVKLSRIERG\ZHLJKWWRWKH
ODWHUDOK\SRWKDODPLFIHHGLQJV\QGURPH-RXUQDORI&RPSDUDWLYH
3K\VLRORJ\DQG3V\FKRORJ\±
3ULFH5$*RWWHVPDQ,,%RG\IDWLQLGHQWLFDOWZLQVUHDUHG
DSDUW±UROHVIRUJHQHVDQGHQYLURQPHQW%HKDYLRU*HQHWLFV
±
4X ' /XGZLJ 6 *DPPHOWRIW 6 3LSHU 0 3HOOH\PRXQWHU 0$
&XOOHQ0-0DWKHV:)3U]\SHN-.DQDUHN50DUDWRV)OLHU
($UROHIRUPHODQLQFRQFHQWUDWLQJKRUPRQHLQWKHFHQWUDO
UHJXODWLRQRIIHHGLQJEHKDYLRXU1DWXUH±
5XVVHOO&'3HWHUVHQ515DR635LFFL053UDVDG$=KDQJ<
%UROLQ5()ULHG6./HSWLQH[SUHVVLRQLQDGLSRVHWLVVXH
IURP REHVH KXPDQV GHSRWVSHFLILF UHJXODWLRQ E\ LQVXOLQ DQG
GH[DPHWKDVRQH$PHULFDQ-RXUQDORI3K\VLRORJ\(±(
6DNXUDL 7 $PHPL\D $ ,VKLL 0 0DWVX]DNL , &KHPHOOL 50
7DQDND+HWDO2UH[LQVDQGRUH[LQUHFHSWRUVDIDPLO\RI
K\SRWKDODPLF QHXURSHSWLGHV DQG * SURWHLQFRXSOHG UHFHSWRUV
WKDWUHJXODWHIHHGLQJEHKDYLRXU&HOO±
6DOW]PDQ(5REHUWV6%7KHUROHRIHQHUJ\H[SHQGLWXUHLQ
HQHUJ\UHJXODWLRQ±ILQGLQJVIURPDGHFDGHRIUHVHDUFK1XWULWLRQ
5HYLHZV±
6DWRK1.DWVXXUD*+D\DVH07VXML77DND\D.2JDZD<
'XDOHIIHFWVRIOHSWLQRQERG\ZHLJKWUHJXODWLRQYLDWKH
DUFXDWH QXFOHXV $UF DQG WKH YHQWURPHGLDO K\SRWKDODPXV
90+'LDEHWHV
3HUVSHFWLYHVLQWKHVWXG\RIIRRGLQWDNH
6FKRHOOHU'$&HOOD/.6LQKD0.&DUR-)(QWUDLQPHQW
RIWKHGLXUQDOUK\WKPRISODVPDOHSWLQWRPHDOWLPLQJ-RXUQDORI
&OLQLFDO,QYHVWLJDWLRQ±
6FKZDUW] *- 7KH UROH RI JDVWURLQWHVWLQDO YDJDO DIIHUHQWV
LQ WKH FRQWURO RI IRRG LQWDNH FXUUHQW SURVSHFWV 1XWULWLRQ ±
6FKZDUW] 0: 5HJXODWLRQ RI DSSHWLWH DQG ERG\ ZHLJKW
+RVSLWDO3UDFWLFH±
6FKZDUW]0:%DVNLQ'*%XNRZVNL75 .XLMSHU-/)RVWHU'
/DVVHU * 3UXQNDUG '( 3RUWH ' :RRGV 6& 6HHOH\ 5- :HLJOH '66SHFLILFLW\RIOHSWLQDFWLRQRQHOHYDWHGEORRG
JOXFRVHOHYHOVDQGK\SRWKDODPLFQHXURSHSWLGH<JHQHH[SUHVVLRQ
LQREREPLFH'LDEHWHV±
6FKZDUW] 0: 6LSROV $- *UXELQ &( %DVNLQ '* 'LIIHUHQWLDO HIIHFW RI IDVWLQJ RQ K\SRWKDODPLF H[SUHVVLRQ RI
JHQHV HQFRGLQJ QHXURSHSWLGH < JDODQLQ DQG JOXWDPLF DFLG
GHFDUER[\ODVH%UDLQ5HVHDUFK%XOOHWLQ±
6FKZDUW] 0: :RRGV 6& 3RUWH ' 6HHOH\ 5- %DVNLQ '*
&HQWUDO QHUYRXV V\VWHP FRQWURO RI IRRG LQWDNH 1DWXUH
±
6SHDNPDQ-57UD\KXUQ35D\QHU'9/HSWLQLQKLELWVWKH
VWDUYDWLRQUHVSRQVHVRIPLFH)$6(%-RXUQDO$
6WDQOH\ %* .\UNRXOL 6( /DPSHUW 6 /HLERZLW] 6) 1HXURSHSWLGH < FKURQLFDOO\ LQMHFWHG LQWR WKH K\SRWKDODPXV D
SRZHUIXO QHXURFKHPLFDO LQGXFHU RI K\SHUSKDJLD DQG REHVLW\
3HSWLGHV±
6W-HRU671HZWUHQGVLQZHLJKWPDQDJHPHQW-RXUQDORIWKH
$PHULFDQ'LHWHWLF$VVRFLDWLRQ±
6WHLQOHFKQHU 6 +HOGPDLHU * %HFNHU + 7KH VHDVRQDO
F\FOH RIERG\ZHLJKWLQWKH'MXQJDULDQKDPVWHU3KRWRSHULRGLF
FRQWURODQGLQIOXHQFHRIVWDUYDWLRQDQGPHODWRQLQ2HFRORJLD
±
7DRXLV0'ULGL6&DVV\6%HQRPDU<5DYHU15LGHDX13LFDUG
0:LOOLDPV-*HUWOHU$&KLFNHQOHSWLQSURSHUWLHVDQG
DFWLRQV'RPHVWLF$QLPDO(QGRFULQRORJ\±
7DSS\ / %LQQHUW & 6FKQHLWHU 3K (IIHFWV RI QXWULHQWV
LQWDNH RQ HQHUJ\ H[SHQGLWXUH 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH 1XWULWLRQ
6RFLHW\,QWKH3UHVV
7DUWDJOLD /$ 'HPEVNL 0 :HQJ ; 'HQJ 1+ &XOSHSSHU -
'HYRV 5HWDO,GHQWLILFDWLRQDQGH[SUHVVLRQFORQLQJRID
OHSWLQUHFHSWRU2%5&HOO±
7DVDND<<DQDJLVDZD..DZDKDUD52PRUL<3ODVPD
KXPDQ OHSWLQ LQ REHVH DQG GLDEHWLF VXEMHFWV DQG LWV GLXUQDO
YDULDWLRQ'LDEHWRORJLD
7XUWRQ0'2¶6KHD'*XQQ,%HDN6$(GZDUGV&0%0HHUDQ
.&KRL6-7D\ORU*0+HDWK00/DPEHUW3':LOGLQJ-3+
6PLWK'0*KDWHL0$+HUEHUW-%ORRP65$UROHIRU
JOXFDJRQOLNH SHSWLGH LQ WKH FHQWUDO UHJXODWLRQ RI IHHGLQJ
1DWXUH±
9DLVVH & &OHPHQW . *X\*UDQG % )URJXHO 3 $
IUDPHVKLIW PXWDWLRQ LQ KXPDQ 0&5 LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK D
GRPLQDQWIRUPRIREHVLW\1DWXUH*HQHWLFV±
YDQ$JJHO/HLMVVHQ'3&6DULV:+0+XO*%YDQ%DDN0$
VKRUWWHUP HIIHFWV RI ZHLJKW ORVV ZLWK RU ZLWKRXW ORZ
LQWHQVLW\ H[HUFLVH WUDLQLQJ RQ IDW PHWDEROLVP LQ REHVH PHQ
$PHULFDQ-RXUQDORI&OLQLFDO1XWULWLRQ±
9LQWHQ - 6WRYLQJ 5 +DQGEHUJ $ +DJHQ & 'LXUQDO
YDULDWLRQRIWKHSODVPDOHSWLQFRQFHQWUDWLRQLQDQRUH[LDQHUYRVD
SDWLHQWVDQGFRQWUROVXEMHFWV'LDEHWRORJLD
9RJOHU*36RUHQVHQ7,$6WXQNDUG$-6ULQLYDVDQ055DR'&
,QIOXHQFHV RI JHQHV DQG VKDUHG IDPLO\ HQYLURQPHQW RQ
DGXOW ERG\ PDVV LQGH[ DVVHVVHG RQ DQ DGRSWLRQ VWXG\ E\ D
FRPSUHKHQVLYHSDWKPRGHO,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI2EHVLW\
±
:DGGHQ7$7UHDWPHQWRIREHVLW\E\PRGHUDWHDQGVHYHUH
FDORULILFUHVWULFWLRQ5HVXOWVRIFOLQLFDOUHVHDUFKWULDOV$QQDOVRI
,QWHUQDO0HGLFLQH±
:DQJ7/+DUW]HOO'/)ODWW:3 0DUWLQ5-%DLOH&$
5HVSRQVHVRIOHDQDQGREHVH=XFNHUUDWVWRFHQWUDOO\DGPLQLVWHUHG
OHSWLQ3K\VLRORJ\DQG%HKDYLRU±
:HLJOH'6$SSHWLWHDQGWKHUHJXODWLRQRIERG\FRPSRVLWLRQ
1DWXUH±
:HLJOH'6%XNRZVNL75)RVWHU'&+ROGHUPDQ6.UDPHU-0
/DVVHU*/RIWRQGD\&(3UXQNDUG'(5D\PRQG&*HUWOHU$
5HFRPELQDQW RE SURWHLQ UHGXFHV IHHGLQJ DQG ERG\
ZHLJKWLQWKHREREPRXVH-RXUQDORI&OLQLFDO,QYHVWLJDWLRQ
±
:HLQVLHU 5/ +XQWHU *5 *RZHU %$ 6FKXW] < 'DUQHOO %( =XFNHUPDQ3$%RG\IDWGLVWULEXWLRQLQZKLWHDQGEODFN
ZRPHQGLIIHUHQWSDWWHUQVRILQWUDDEGRPLQDODQGVXEFXWDQHRXV
DGLSRVHWLVVXHXWLOLVDWLRQZLWKZHLJKWORVV$PHULFDQ-RXUQDORI
&OLQLFDO1XWULWLRQ±
:HLQWUDXE0/RQJWHUPZHLJKWFRQWUROVWXG\FRQFOXVLRQV
&OLQLFDO3KDUPDFRORJ\7KHRU\±
:LOGLQJ-3+*LOEH\6*%DLOH\&-%DWW5$:LOOLDPV**KDWHL
0$%ORRP65,QFUHDVHGQHXURSHSWLGH<PHVVHQJHU
ULERQXFOHLFDFLGP51$DQGGHFUHDVHGQHXURWHQVLQP51$LQ
WKH K\SRWKDODPXV RI WKH REHVH RERE PRXVH (QGRFULQRORJ\
±
:LUWVKDIWHU''DYLV-'6HWSRLQWVVHWWOLQJSRLQWVDQGWKH
FRQWURORIERG\ZHLJKW3K\VLRORJ\DQG%HKDYLRU±
:RRGV 6 6HHOH\ 5 3RUWH '- 6FKZDUW] 0 6LJQDOV
WKDW UHJXODWHIRRGLQWDNHDQGHQHUJ\KRPHRVWDVLV6FLHQFH
±
:RRGV 6& 6HHOH\ 5- 6FKZDUW] 0: /HSWLQ DV DQ
DGLSRVLW\VLJQDO(QGRFULQRORJ\DQG0HWDEROLVP±
<DVZHQ/'LHKO1%UHQQDQ0%+RFKJHVFKZHQGHU8
2EHVLW\ LQ WKH PRXVH PRGHO RI SURRSLRPHODQRFRUWLQ GHIL
FLHQF\UHVSRQGVWRSHULSKHUDOPHODQRFRUWLQ1DWXUH0HGLFLQH
±
<HR *6 )DURRTL ,6 $PLQLDQ 6 +DOVDOO '- 6WDQKRSH 5* 2¶5DKLOO\6$IUDPHVKLIWPXWDWLRQLQ0&5DVVRFLDWHG
ZLWKGRPLQDQWO\LQKHULWHGKXPDQREHVLW\ 1DWXUH*HQHWLFV
±
=KDQJ<3URHQFD50DIIHL0%DURQH0/HRSROG/)ULHGPDQ
-0 3RVLWLRQDOFORQLQJ RI WKH PRXVH REHVH JHQH DQG LWV
KXPDQKRPRORJXH1DWXUH±
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz