Preview for
September 2016
The preview for September 2016 of the Industry Survey indicates increase by 1.2 points in the Industry
Confidence Index (ICI) compared to the final figure of the previous month, changing to 87.3 from 86.1
points, compensating the drop of 1.0 points in the previous month.
Industry Confidence Index
(data from sep/08 to sep/16, seasonally adjusted)
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
ICI
ICI - preview
The increase of ICI in the preview for September combines worsening assessments of the current situation
and improved expectations for the coming months, indicating that the sector remains more optimistic
about the future than satisfied with the present. The Present Situation Index (PSI) decreased 0.5 points to
84.7 points, while the Expectations Index (EI) increased 2.7 points to 90.0 points.
The Level of Capacity Utilization (LCU) increased 1.2 percentage points in the preview for September, to
75.0%, the highest level since September of last year.
For the preview of September 2016 were consulted 780 companies between the 5th and the 19th this month.
The final results of the survey will be released on next Wednesday, September 28th.
All information contained in this report are seasonally adjusted, unless otherwise indicated. More detailed information on the Industry Survey is available
on the website at www.fgv.br/ibre.
Manufacturing Industry Survey
Industry Confidence Index
September 2016
Confidence
Index
Period
Present
Situation
Index
Expectations
Index
Confidence
Index
Present
Situation
Index
Expectations
Index
(In points)
(In points
Seasonally – Standardized**
Original – Standardized**
Level of Capacity Utilization (LCU)
(In percentages)
Seasonally
Original
apr/15
77.7
79.3
76.4
80.2
80.3
81.7
77.6%
76.4%
may/15
76.8
78.1
75.9
77.4
78.0
78.5
76.7%
76.0%
jun/15
73.7
74.0
73.9
73.4
73.0
75.9
75.9%
75.4%
jul/15
75.6
75.1
76.5
75.9
72.8
80.9
75.4%
74.6%
aug/15
73.5
71.4
76.2
75.1
70.8
81.5
75.2%
75.3%
sep/15
74.1
74.5
73.9
76.4
75.4
79.3
75.1%
75.8%
oct/15
75.8
74.3
77.6
77.8
75.5
81.9
74.8%
76.5%
nov/15
75.1
74.2
76.4
74.5
76.1
74.8
74.8%
76.8%
dec/15
75.6
74.8
76.8
72.6
75.6
71.5
74.8%
76.4%
jan/16
76.2
77.6
75.4
74.6
77.9
73.2
74.1%
72.4%
feb/16
74.7
77.1
72.6
73.7
76.7
72.3
73.6%
73.4%
mar/16
75.1
78.6
72.0
77.3
79.4
76.7
73.7%
72.6%
apr/16
77.5
79.8
75.6
79.8
80.9
80.0
74.3%
73.2%
may/16
79.2
80.5
78.2
79.3
80.0
80.0
73.8%
73.1%
jun/16
83.4
81.2
85.7
81.9
79.7
85.5
73.9%
73.4%
jul/16
87.1
85.2
89.0
87.3
83.5
92.2
74.3%
73.5%
aug/16
86.1
85.2
87.3
87.7
83.8
92.6
73.8%
73.9%
sep/16*
87.3
84.7
90.0
89.7
85.7
94.8
75.0%
75.7%
* preliminary results
** average of 100 points and standard deviation of 10 points, having as reference the period between July 2010 and June 2015
SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED SERIES
ORIGINAL SERIES
Change over the previous month (in points)
Change on the same period of the previous year (in points)
Period
Confidence
Index
Present Situation
Index
Expectations
Index
Period
Confidence
Index
Present Situation
Index
Expectations
Index
apr/16
2.4
1.2
3.6
apr/16
-0.4
0.6
-1.7
may/16
1.7
0.7
2.6
may/16
1.9
2.0
1.5
jun/16
4.2
0.7
7.5
jun/16
8.5
6.7
9.6
jul/16
3.7
4.0
3.3
jul/16
11.4
10.7
11.3
aug/16
-1.0
0.0
-1.7
aug/16
12.6
13.0
11.1
sep/16*
1.2
-0.5
2.7
sep/16*
13.3
10.3
15.5
* preliminary results
MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY SURVEY Monthly publication by FGV/IBRE –Brazilian Institute of Economics
Director of IBRE: Luiz Guilherme Schymura de Oliveira
Superintendent of Public Statistics: Aloisio Campelo Jr.
Survey Coordinator: Tabi Thuler Santos | Responsible for analysis and disclosure: Aloisio Campelo Jr.
Technical Team: Andressa Monteiro Durão and Fernanda Carvalho Machado Cortes (intern)
Press services: Luciana Parreiras +55 21 3799-6384 / [email protected]
IBRE Call Center: +55 21 3799-6799 / [email protected] / portalibre.fgv.br
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