City & County of Swansea – Information, Research and GIS Team
SWANSEA PROFILE
(DECEMBER 2016)
Introduction
Situated in the middle of the South Wales coast, Swansea is the second largest city in
Wales and the regional centre of South West Wales. Swansea’s two neighbouring local
authorities are Carmarthenshire to the west and Neath Port Talbot to the east.
The City & County, which has a land area of 378 square kilometres, can be broadly
divided into four geographic areas: the open moorlands of the Lliw Uplands in the north;
the rural Gower Peninsula in the west, containing the UK’s first Area of Outstanding
Natural Beauty; the suburban area stretching from the edge of Swansea towards
settlements in the west and around the M4 corridor; and the coastal strip around Swansea
Bay, which includes the city centre and adjacent district centres including Uplands, Sketty
and Mumbles.
Swansea’s population
The latest official estimate of the City and County of Swansea’s population (as at June
2015) is 242,400. Swansea has the second largest local authority population in Wales and
accounts for almost 8% of its total population (3,099,100).
The average population density of the county is 638 people per sq. km (2015 estimate),
the sixth highest of the 22 local authorities in Wales (average: 149 people per sq. km).
The population is not evenly distributed within Swansea, with most people living within the
urban area and the surrounding settlements to the north, including Morriston (the second
highest ward population; around 16,500 in 2015), Clydach, Gorseinon and Pontarddulais.
Ward level estimates of population density (2011 Census) reveal high concentrations of
population in and immediately around the city centre (Castle Ward), the adjacent wards of
Cwmbwrla and Uplands (6,800 people per sq. km, the highest population density in the
county), and also in Townhill and Penderry.
Figure 1: Population density by Ward
Source: Population Estimates (ONS, 2011) and land area (sq. km).
These are in contrast to
the sparsely populated
rural areas of the Gower
and northern Lliw area
(both Mawr and Gower
Wards have a population
density of 32 people per
sq. km, the lowest in the
county).
The adjacent map (figure
1) illustrates the estimated
population density of each
Electoral Division or Ward
in Swansea as at 2011.
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Population structure
The latest ONS estimates of the gender and age structure of Swansea’s population (as at
June 2015) are set out in Table 1 below, along with the equivalent percentage figures for
Wales and the UK.
Table 1: Composition of Swansea’s Population by Gender and Age, mid-2015
Age
0-4 years
5-15
16-24
25-44
45-64
65-74
75+ years
Total
Swansea
Males
Females
Total
7,000
14,700
18,600
30,600
29,200
11,800
8,900
120,900
6,300
13,700
15,400
29,300
30,700
13,300
12,700
121,500
13,200
28,400
34,000
59,900
59,900
25,100
21,700
242,400
%
Wales
%
UK
%
5.5
11.7
14.0
24.7
24.7
10.4
8.9
100
5.7
12.2
11.8
23.8
26.3
11.2
9.0
100
6.2
12.6
11.4
26.4
25.6
9.7
8.1
100
Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates 2015, ONS.
The proportion of Swansea’s population
of working age (i.e. all aged 16-64), at
63.5%, is higher than Wales (61.9%) and
the UK (63.3%). However, Swansea has
a lower proportion of children (aged 015), at 17.2%, than both Wales (17.9%)
and the UK (18.8%).
The
population
pyramid
opposite
illustrates the latest estimates for
Swansea by age and gender.
Figure 2: Swansea’s population, mid-2015
The pyramid highlights in particular the large spike in the population cohorts aged between
19-22 years, in part associated with the presence and intake of students to Swansea’s two
universities, a proportion of whom come from elsewhere in the UK and overseas.
Published statistics for 2013-14 record over 16,500 full-time students in Higher Education
via the two local universities (Swansea University and University of Wales Trinity St.
David), with over 4,500 additional full-time students in Further Education (Gower College
Swansea).
Population change
The long-term published mid-year population estimates (ONS) suggest that Swansea’s
population has steadily grown between 2001 and 2015, reversing the recorded trend of the
1990s (although there have been widespread concerns that the 2001 Census results and
associated population estimates were under-counted). Between 2005 and 2015, the
average rate of population growth in Swansea is approximately +1,300 people (+0.6%) per
year. The overall long-term trend in Swansea’s population since 1991 is shown below,
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and includes both the latest official estimates and those reported prior to the release of the
2011 Census results.
250,000
Swansea's Population, 1991-2015
Figure 3:
Population change,
1991-2015
240,000
230,000
220,000
pre-2011 Census MYE trend
Current Mid Year Estimate series 1991-2015
210,000
Source: Mid-Year
Population
Estimates, ONS.
The official estimates of the key components of population change – namely births, deaths
and migration – suggest that the main driver of population growth in Swansea over the
period 2001-2015 has been migration. In the ten years from 2001, average annual net
inflow from all migration was around 1,000; although during the years 2011-14 this figure
was lower at around 600, until increasing to 1,100 in the year to 2015. In some years, the
majority of growth has come from internal (within UK) migration (mainly for the years 200204 and 2009-10); in other years via international migration (in nine of the last ten years).
In terms of natural change, the recorded number of live births in Swansea has generally
risen since 2001, and over the last few years the number of deaths has slightly fallen
(although the figures do fluctuate). The net result is that from 2005 onwards the number of
births has exceeded deaths and positively contributed to population growth, most
significantly in the years 2007-08 and 2010-12.
Change by age
An overview of recent trends can be provided via analysis of the main changes in the age
structure of Swansea’s population over the ten-year period 2005-2015.
In terms of the key ‘life stage’ groups, the broad trends are as follows:
•
•
•
•
All people: an increase of 13,000 (+5.7%), from 229,300 to 242,400.
Children (aged 0-15): small net change (+400 / 0.9%) to 41,700.
Working age (16-64): an increase of 6,900 (+4.7%) to 153,500, below the
equivalent overall rate of population increase in Swansea.
Older people (aged 65 and over): an increase of 5,800 (+14.1%) to 46,800;
reflecting an ageing population, in line with wider trends.
For specific smaller cohorts, the trends for Swansea over this ten-year period are:
• Aged 0-4: growth of 1,100 (+8.9%), mainly reflecting births in the 2010s
• 5-15: an overall fall of 700 (-2.5%), partly reflecting the impact of fewer births in
the early 2000s, although the rate of decline appears to be slowing
• 20-24: a significant growth of 2,200 (+11.7%), partly linked to levels of student inmigration from elsewhere in the UK and overseas.
• 25-29: an even more significant increase in this cohort by 3,100 (+23.3%), due to
increased in-migration and other local demographic change.
• 35-44: an overall loss of 3,000 (-9.6%) in this ten-year cohort.
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•
•
•
45-54: increase of 2,800 (+9.8%), in part due to the 1960s baby-boom.
60-69: increase of 4,000 (+17.0%), reflecting the post-war baby-boom.
Aged 85+: a significant percentage growth, estimated to have increased by
23.7% (+1,200) over the ten years to 2015, to around 6,300 people.
Life expectancy
Life expectancy in Swansea, as elsewhere in the UK, is increasing. The long-term general
trend of an ageing population is confirmed by the latest ONS figures on average life
expectancy at birth (for 2012-14), which now stands at 78.0 years for males in Swansea
(Wales 78.5) and 82.4 for females (Wales 82.3). Ten years previously, i.e. 2002-2004, life
expectancy in Swansea was 75.7 years for males (Wales 75.8) and 80.5 years for females
(Wales 80.3). This will have significant effects on the provision of health, social care and
other public services in Swansea.
Projected population change
The Welsh Government’s latest trend-based population projections suggest that
Swansea’s population will grow by 9.0% (21,600 people) between 2014 and 2039. In
these projections, Swansea has the third highest projected growth rate of the 22 Welsh
local authorities, behind only Cardiff and Wrexham. In comparison, the projections
suggest a population increase of 5.4% across Wales over the period.
In reality these projections can only provide an indication of future population should
recent demographic trends continue, and only provide one scenario based on a particular
set of assumptions. The 2014-based projections are based on past trends, essentially
using five years of fertility, mortality and migration data (to mid-2014).
The projections suggest that the number of people of pension age (65 and over) will
increase by 18,400 (+39.8%) to 64,700 over the 2014-2039 period – an average annual
increase of 740 (+1.6%). The main reason for this is long-term improvements in mortality
rates (reflected in people living longer) and the ageing on of certain population cohorts.
However, the projections suggest smaller rates of growth in the working age (16-64)
population over the 25-year period, by 3,400 (+2.2%) overall, an average of 140 people or
0.1% per year. Projected change in the 0-15 age group, suggests a very small decrease
of 100 (0.3%) over the full 25 years. Figure 4 shows the broad future trend in Swansea’s
population suggested by these projections.
350,000
Swansea's projected population by key age group (WG, 2014-based)
Figure 4: Swansea’s
projected population
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
Age 65+
Age 16-64
100,000
50,000
Age 0-15
Source: Local
Authority Population
Projections for Wales
(2014-based),
Welsh Government.
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Household composition
The total number of households (with residents) in Swansea in mid-2015 is estimated at
106,300 (rounded), an increase of approximately 700 (or 0.6%) on the 2014 figure. Since
2010, the number of households in Swansea has increased by 3,800 (+3.7%), with
average household size slowly falling to 2.23 people (2015).
In 2015, single-adult households (36,500 / 34.3% of total) and 2-person 0-children
households (31,400 / 29.5%) were the most common household types in Swansea.
Between 2010 and 2015, the number of single-person households increased by 2,600
(+7.7%), with other significant change occurring in 2-adult 0-child households (an increase
of 1,000 or 3.2%) and 4+adult 0-children households (an increase of 300 or 7.7%);
perhaps reflecting in part an increase in student households. By contrast, the number of
2-adult, 1 (or more) child households in Swansea has fallen by 300 (-1.6%) over the fiveyear period.
Population Characteristics:
- by Ethnic Group
2011 Census estimates (the most recent available) suggest that 14,326 people in
Swansea were from a non-white ethnic group, 6.0% of the total population; higher than the
equivalent figure for Wales (4.4%) and the third highest percentage of the 22 local
authorities in Wales, although lower than the equivalent UK figures.
20,368 (8.5%) of Swansea’s population were non-‘White British’ in 2011 (i.e. also including
other white ethnic groups); above the Wales average (6.8%) and again third highest of the
Welsh LAs, but below UK.
Over the period 2001 to 2011, the proportion of people in Swansea from a non-White
ethnic group increased from around 2% of the population to 6%, an increase of 9,500
(+198%). The number of non-‘White British’ people increased by 10,800 (+113%), above
the equivalent increases for Wales (+118% and +78%).
The Census data (2011) suggests that the largest non-white ethnic groups are:
• Chinese – 2,052 people (0.9% of
• Other Asian – 1,739 (0.7%)
Swansea’s population)
• Black African – 1,707 (0.7%)
• Bangladeshi – 1,944 (0.8%)
• Arab – 1,694 (0.7%).
Amongst the non-white ethnic groups, the largest estimated increases in population
between 2001 and 2011 were in the Black African (+1,500 approx.), Bangladeshi and
Indian groups (both +900). The ‘Other-White’ population increased by 1,400, partly
reflecting the arrival of economic migrants from Eastern Europe since 2003.
Growth in the Bangladeshi ethnic group, long regarded as the largest non-white ethnic
group in Swansea, has continued between 2001 and 2011, almost doubling (+94%) over
the period. However the latest Census estimates suggest that the Chinese ethnic group is
now larger than the Bangladeshi population in Swansea.
Amongst children, ONS estimates suggest that the numbers aged 5-15 from non-white
ethnic groups increased from around 1,000 in 2001 to 4,500 in 2011 (Census). Schools’
Census data suggests that the proportion of the school population who are not ’WhiteBritish’ increased from 7.5% in 2004 to 11.9% in 2014 (+4,300 pupils).
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Ward level breakdowns of Swansea’s population by ethnic group are also available from
the 2011 Census. The largest ethnic minority populations were recorded in the urban
wards of Uplands (2,091), Castle (3,202) and Sketty (1,323). In proportionate terms,
Castle and Uplands wards both have ethnic minority populations of above 10%.
- by Religion
The 2011 Census is also the latest definitive source of information on religion. Christianity
remains the predominant religion in Swansea (55%); although 34% held no religious
beliefs and 7% did not answer (the Census question on religion is voluntary). Of the
groups listed, 5,415 people (2%) stated their religion as Muslim, making this the most
common religion in Swansea after Christianity.
Census data on the distribution of non-Christian religion by Ward again sees the greatest
numbers in Castle (2,049), Uplands (1,208) and Sketty (886). As a percentage, the wards
of Castle (13%), Uplands and Landore (both 8%) have the highest rates of population with
a non-Christian religion.
- Welsh language
The proportion of people aged 3 and over able to speak Welsh in Swansea decreased
from 13.4% (28,938) in 2001 to 11.4% in 2011 (26,332 people); a fall of 9.0% despite an
overall increase in the population.
Changes in Welsh language skills between Censuses vary by age. In Swansea, the
proportion of children aged 3-4 who can speak Welsh increased from 10.5% in 2001 to
14.6% in 2011, with a slight increase also in the 5-15 age group, rising from 25.2% in 2001
to 26.0% in 2011.
Within Swansea (2011), Mawr ward has the highest percentage of its population (aged 3+)
able to speak read and write Welsh, at 29.3% (35.8% in 2001), with the Townhill ward
having the lowest (3.7%). Llansamlet had the highest number of residents who could
speak read and write Welsh (1,367). In 2011, Mawr also had the lowest percentage of
residents with no skills in Welsh (47.9%) while Townhill had the highest (89.5%).
- Economic activity
Recent data on the structure of Swansea’s workforce suggests that economic activity and
employment rates in Swansea are relatively close to the Wales average but below
equivalent UK rates. However, the large number and proportion of students resident in
Swansea has some effect on these figures.
Table 2: Swansea’s workforce structure, 2015- 2016
Area
Swansea: Total
Men
Women
Wales
United Kingdom
Economically
Active
(aged 16 & over)
116,600
62,700
53,900
1,495,800
33,011,200
Economic
Activity Rate
(working age)
73.8%
77.4%
70.0%
75.2%
77.7%
Employment
(aged 16 &
over)
110,600
60,300
50,300
1,421,700
31,326,800
Employment
Rate
(working age)
70.0%
74.3%
65.5%
71.3%
73.7%
Source: Annual Population Survey (APS) estimates, period ending June 2016, ONS.
Swansea’s status as a major regional administrative, commercial and leisure centre in
South West Wales is reflected in the higher proportions of employment in the service
sectors, and corresponding lower rates of manufacturing employment.
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Swansea has a relatively high proportion of working age residents with NVQ levels 3 and
above, but also those with no qualifications. 33.8% of Swansea's residents (aged 16-64)
are qualified to NVQ level 4 (degree level) and above, slightly higher than the Wales figure
(33.6%). However, 12.8% of Swansea’s working age population have no qualifications
(Wales 10.4%; UK 8.8%) (Source: APS, 2015).
Labour market statistics also demonstrate Swansea’s status as a sub-regional hub with
strong integration between Swansea and its two neighbouring authorities. The latest data
on commuting patterns points to significant estimated daily inflows to Swansea of 27,700
(net inflow +8,300). The majority of in-commuters come from Neath Port Talbot (13,200)
and Carmarthenshire (8,600) (Source: APS, 2015).
- Health
A very broad assessment of the health of Swansea residents is possible via analysis of a
number of 2011 Census indicators (based on self-assessment). The general health
question indicates general well-being and health-related quality of life. In 2011, 77.9% of
Swansea residents assessed their health as good or very good, close to the Wales
average (77.8%). However, 23.3% of Swansea residents had their day-to-day activities
limited a lot or a little by a long-term health problem or disability, slightly higher than the
Wales average (22.7%). The Census data also reveals considerable variations in this for
wards within Swansea, ranging from 4.4% in Killay North to 16.8% in Townhill.
Deprivation
The latest information on relative deprivation for local areas in Swansea is available from
the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) 2014. The Index brings together data for
the 1,909 Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) in Wales on:
•
•
•
•
Income
Employment
Health
Education
•
•
•
•
Housing
Physical environment
Access to services
Community safety.
The WIMD data generates individual LSOA scores and rankings for each of these eight
domains and an overall index of ‘multiple deprivation’. Levels of deprivation in Swansea
are most significant in respect of the Income, Health and Education domains, with lower
than average levels of deprivation in the Access to services, Housing and Physical
environment domains.
Swansea has an above average share of its LSOAs (18 out of 148, or 12%) featuring in
the most deprived 10 per cent in Wales. Eight of Wales’ 22 local authorities have a higher
proportion of deprived LSOAs.
In terms of the overall index the most deprived LSOAs in Swansea (i.e. those featuring in
the most deprived 10% in Wales) are found in the following wards:
•
•
•
•
Penderry (5 of the 7 LSOAs in the ward - ‘Penderry 1’ is ranked 21 of 1909 in Wales)
Townhill (5 of 6 LSOAs)
• Mynyddbach (1 of 6 LSOAs - Clase area)
Morriston (3 of 11 LSOAs) • St. Thomas (1 of 4 LSOAs - east of ward)
Castle (2 of 10 LSOAs)
• Bonymaen (1 of 4 LSOAs - east of ward).
In contrast, 25 (17%) of Swansea’s LSOAs fall within the 10% least deprived.
7
Figure 5 below indicates the general distribution of deprivation by LSOA in Swansea (with
wards shown for identification) illustrating each area’s relative ranking in Wales with the
darkest shaded areas being the most deprived.
Figure 5: Multiple Deprivation in Swansea by LSOA (WIMD 2014)
Source: Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) 2014 (revised Aug-2015), Welsh Government.
Note: Additional information about the Index is available via: www.swansea.gov.uk/deprivation.
December 2016
For further statistical information about Swansea,
please visit our web pages: www.swansea.gov.uk/statistics
Or contact:
City and County of Swansea - Information, Research and GIS Team
Tel: 01792 63 5710. E-mail: [email protected]
Corporate Services – Information & Business Change, Room 1.3.7, Civic Centre, Swansea, SA1 3SN.
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