Risk Mapping Sudan
Sector Disaster Risk Reduction & Emergency Aid
January 2012
Evelien Thieme Groen & Carolien Jacobs
Table of Contents
Fast Facts
HAZARDS
Conflicts
Darfur crisis
Unresolved border issues
South Kordofan
Abyei
Blue Nile
Natural Hazards
Droughts and drought-related conflicts
Environmental degradation and climate change
Floods
Epidemics
Locusts
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
VULNERABILITY
5
Indicators
5
CAPACITY
Government
Civil society
Cordaid partners
International cooperation
6
6
6
6
7
SYNTHESIS
8
Resources & contacts
8
Appendix: hazard map Sudan
2
Republic of Sudan
Fast Facts1
Capital: Khartoum
Official languages: Arabic, English
Population: > 30 mln (est., excl. South Sudan)
Climate: arid in north, more tropical towards
Population Density: n.a.
south
Administrative regions: 15 states/wilayat, 133
Main rain: July-Sept, dry winds: Jan-March
districts. Some regional administrative bodies
Pop. Affected by natural disasters
established by peace agreements
(average/year/mln people): 13 909
Major ethnic groups: Sudanese Arabs, Nubians,
World Risk Index: 48 (173)
Coptic
Cordaid sectors: CT, DRR, H&W,
Major religion: Islam
Entrepreneurship
Hazards
Conflicts
Sudan has known a long history of violent civil conflicts. In several parts of the country conflicts continue until
today. Religion, ethnicity, tribal origin, and access to natural resources have been important drivers of
conflicts. Coupled to natural hazards of floods and droughts, the humanitarian situation in many areas
continues to be complex and concerning.2
Darfur crisis
The current humanitarian situation in Darfur is rooted in long-standing conflicts between the predominantly
nomadic Arabs and sedentary farming communities over land access. In times of famines, such conflicts tend
to intensify. In 2003 the fighting turned into a more intense conflict between on the one hand, the
government forces (SAF), supported by Arab Janjaweed militias and on the other side rebels of the Sudan
Liberation Army/Movement (SLA/M), later splitting up in different factions of which SLA/Minni Minawi’s
faction was the most important) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM).3 Despite various rounds of
peace negotiations and tentative peace agreements signed, fighting and insecurity remain. In 2011, this was
so especially in the regions of Khor Abeche, the Jebel Marra area and Shangil Tobay. As a result of the unrest,
about 1,9 million people live displaced in Darfur, the majority in IDP camps such as Zamzam.4
Unresolved border issues
One of the contentious issues in the Common Peace Agreement between North and South Sudan is the
demarcation of the border. Clashes between SAF and SPLA forces continue to constitute a serious threat to
stability, especially in South Kordofan, Abyei, and Blue Nile.5
1
Based on www.cbs.gov.sd, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudan, viewed on 15.11.2011. Most data available on Sudan still include South Sudan.
International Crisis Group, December 2011. ‘Sudan Conflict History’, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/key-issues/research-resources/conflicthistories/sudan.aspx, viewed on 16.11.2011.
3
International Crisis Group, December 2011. ‘Sudan Conflict History’, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/key-issues/research-resources/conflicthistories/sudan.aspx, BBC Q&A: Sudan’s Darfur Conflict, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/3496731.stm, and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Darfur, viewed on 16.11.2011,
4
UN, 2011. ‘Sudan: UN and Partners Work Plan 2011: Mid Year Review’, p.12 http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/fullreport_75.pdf,
viewed on 18.11.2011
5
Ibid.
2
3
South Kordofan
Armed clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Sudan People’s Liberation Army-North broke out
around Kadugli in South Kordofan in June 2011. As this is the lean season, people were especially vulnerable.
About 200 thousand people got displaced or severely affected, many fled to Kadugli.6
Abyei
Abyei, in Southern Kordofan, is a disputed area with serious conflict potential. Abyei’s status was one of the
most contentious topics in the negotiations of the Common Peace Agreement between Sudan and South
Sudan. Under pressure of the US, Sudan agreed on holding a referendum to decide under which regime it
would fall after South Sudan’s independence. By now, the referendum has been withheld indefinitely and the
area has ‘special administrative status’, its population being considered as citizens of Southern Kordofan State
and Northern Bahr-el-Ghazal simultaneously. In May 2011 clashes were report between the armies of North
and South, after which the Armed Forces of Sudan eventually took control, an estimated 200 000 people fled
the area. From July 2011 onwards, a UN peacekeeping mission (United Nations Interim Security Force for
Abyei) is stationed in the area.7
Blue Nile
In September 2011 new fighting broke out between government and different militia. Over 130 000 people got
displaced or severely affected in the regions of Kurmuk and Damazine.8
Natural Hazards
Droughts and drought-related conflicts
Drought is a recurrent hazard in large parts of Sudan (apart from the Greenbelt), especially when occurring
between June and September. North-Kordofan, North Darfur and the Red Sea Hills suffer most chronically
from drought. Major droughts and related periods of food insecurity have occured 1991, 1987 and 1980-’83.9
Tensions between pastoral nomads and sedentary farmers tend to increase in periods of drought as they
compete over limited resources such as water and grazing/farming land.10
Environmental degradation and climate change
Together with rapid population increase, the number of livestock has increased rapidly in Sudan. At the same
time, sedentary farming has become more recurrent, also in areas which are not optimal for agriculture. This
all adds to soil depletion, deforestation, erosion and increased competition over natural resources.11 Climate
change has a further adverse influence and has been depicted as one of the underlying causes of many of the
conflicts in Sudan.12
6
Ibid, p.15.
International Crisis Group, 8.05.2011. ‘Sudan: Abyei at a dangerous tipping point’, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/mediareleases/2011/africa/sudan-abyei-at-a-dangerous-tipping-point.aspx and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abyei, viewed on 16.11.2011.
8
http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/OCHA_sdn_landscape_template_2.pdf, viewed on 15.11.2011.
9
WFP Emergency Preparedness and Response Branch, 2011. Seasonal and hazards calendar, p.86
10
Ali, Ibrahim M.M., 2011. ‘Marginalization of pastoral nomads in Blue Nile State, Sudan’, oral presentation at Anthropological Workshop, Max Planck
Institute for Social Anthropology, Halle, Germany, 22.11.2011.
11
Ibid. See also UNEP, 2007. Sudan: Post-conflict environmental assessment, viewed on http://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/UNEP_Sudan.pdf on
23.11.2011
12
UNEP, 2007.
7
4
Floods
Rain-induced river floods, just like droughts are recurrent events in riverine areas, such as areas along the
Nile and Gash rivers. Khartoum and Kassala are two major cities that have been affected in the past by
floods.13
Epidemics
In the complex humanitarian situation that characterizes many parts of Sudan, an outbreak of a disease can
rapidly turn into an epidemic and affect many people. Over the last years, Sudan has experienced outbreaks
of Rift Valley Fever, cholera, and yellow fever.14
Locusts
Locust plagues incidentally occur in the North, West and East of Sudan. Plagues are more likely when rains are
abundant. A major outbreak occurred in 2007 in the North East and coastal plains along the Red Sea.15
Vulnerability
Indicators16
Human Development Index (out of 187)
169
Adult literacy rate (% aged >15)
70.2
GDP per capita (USD)
2007
Mean years of schooling (of adults)
3.1
Living below 1,25 (USD) a day (% pop)
n.a.
Gender inequality index
0.611
Life expectancy at birth (years)
61.5
Global hunger index (>20 alarming)
21.5
Infant mortality rate (per 1000 live births)
108
Corruption perceptions index (10 = clean)
1.6
Levels of development in Sudan – although variable – are generally low. In regards to the humanitarian
situation, a recent UN report indicatively referred to ‘chronic vulnerabilities that have beset the country over
the last decades’.17 Poverty is most severe in rural areas in Sudan. People who live on rain fed agriculture are
particularly affected due to: unpredictable rainfall patterns; water shortages during the dry season; barriers
on migration routes leading to disputes; cattle raiding. 18 In areas where conflicts are most intense,
vulnerability is generally highest, for both the settled people and for the IDP’s. These regions include Darfur,
South Kordofan, and Blue Nile.19 Often, also the settled population flees its homestead at night to find safety
and shelter in the bush. 20
Until the secession of South Sudan, pastoralists have always freely moved from North to South Sudan.
Negotiations are ongoing about the legal status and the requirement of a passport for these people. This
13
WFP Emergency Preparedness and Response Branch, 2011. Seasonal and hazards calendar, p.86
http://www.who.int/countries/sdn/en/, viewed on 15.11.2011.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=19338, viewed on 15.11.2011. For monitoring of current situation, see
http://hewsweb.org/locust/#
16
Based on UNDP, 2011. Sudan Country Profile: Human Development Indicators, http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/SDN.html, viewed on
15.11.2011 and http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ghi11.pdf and http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2011/results/#CountryResults,
viewed on 20.12.2011.
17
UN, 2011. ‘Sudan: UN and Partners Work Plan 2011: Mid Year Review’, p.16 http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/fullreport_75.pdf,
viewed on 18.11.2011
18
FAO, ‘Rural poverty in the Sudan’, http://www.ruralpovertyportal.org/web/guest/country/home/tags/sudan, viewed on 18.11.2011.
19
http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/OCHA_sdn_landscape_template_2.pdf, viewed on 15.11.2011.
20
IRINNews, 14.10.2011. ‘Zouhal Iead, “I go to Ethiopia to sleep then come back to Kurmuk”, http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=93964, viewed
on 18.11.2011.
14
15
5
might lead to further vulnerability. 21 Yet, as long as borders are not clearly demarcated, transborder
movement will be hindered more by armed forces in the area than by the lack of a passport.22
Christians are also a vulnerable group. At the split-off of South Sudan, Sudan’s president Bashir
announced the new constitution of Northern Sudan would be entirely Islamic; the majority belief in the
North.23 He repeated this claim in October 2011. Future will reveal whether sharia law will prejudice the
Christian minority in North Sudan
Capacity
Government
The Northern Sudanese state has limited capacity and is facing many challenges.24 A major challenge is to
establish and maintain a stable relationship with South Sudan. Since 1991 Sudan has a Council for Civil
Defence which acts as a coordinating body for disasters and natural calamities. Coordination mechanisms at
state and county levels still have to be developed. A National Platform has not been established due to a lack
of financial means. 25 With the secession of South Sudan, financial means might further decrease, as oil
revenues might reduce.26
Civil society
The Sudanese civil society is generally characterized as weak. Despite significant support from donor
countries, not so much has been achieved on a local level in terms of capacity building, also because many
partners prioritise direct relief over capacity building and local empowerment.27
Cordaid partners
Sector: Conflict Transformation
Name and kind of
Geo location
org.
Radio Abyei (FPU)
Abyei, South
NGO
Kordofan and
Blue Nile
Asmaa
Khartoum
IDCS
Khartoum
Salmmah Women’s
Resource Centre
(SWRC)
SuWEP
Khartoum
KACE
Khartoum
Khartoum
Core business
Strategy
turnover
staff
Radio
broadcasting
100.000500.000
10-50
Women
empowerment
Constitution
awareness-raising
Women
empowerment
Service delivery
>500,000
>50
Lobby/advocacy
100.000500.000
100.000500.000
10-50
Women in peace
building
Democracy and
governance
Capacity building, lobby
Lobby/Advocacy
Lobby, advocacy
100.000500.000
>500,000
10-50
10-50
10-50
21
UN, 2011. ‘Sudan: UN and Partners Work Plan 2011: Mid Year Review’, p.21 http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/fullreport_75.pdf,
viewed on 18.11.2011
Ali, Ibrahim M.M., 2011. ‘Marginalization of pastoral nomads in Blue Nile State, Sudan’, oral presentation at Anthropological Workshop, Max Planck
Institute for Social Anthropology, Halle, Germany, 22.11.2011.
23
The Guardian, 19.12.2010. ‘Omar al-Bashir: northern Sudan will adopt sharia law if counry splits’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/19/omarbashir-sharia-sudan-referendum, viewed on 18.11.2011.
24
UNISDR Regional Office for Africa, 2010. Inventory of national coordination mechanisms, legal frameworks and national plans for disaster risk reduction in
Africa.
25
Ibid.
26
IPS, 3.10.2011, ‘Oil conflict threatens to break out’, http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=105322, on 05.10.2011
27
IIRR, 2010. ‘Community managed disaster risk reduction (CMDRR) TOT Training for Cordaid partners in Sudan- Report.
22
6
International cooperation
In 2008, the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for arrest of Sudan’s president al-Bashir for
‘genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes in Darfur’. 28 In a response, the Sudanese Government
ordered the expulsion of a number of iNGOs from the country, affecting the provision of humanitarian
assistance especially in Darfur.29
The cluster approach in place in Sudan is as follows: 30
Sector
Government Lead
Basic Infrastructure and
Settlement Development
(BI)
North: Ministry of Physical Planning and Public
Utilities, Ministry of Transport
South: Ministry of Housing, Lands and Public
Utilities, Ministry of Transport and Roads
North: Federal Ministry of General Education
South: Ministry of Education, Science and
Technology
North: Ministry of Health
South: Ministry of Health
North: Public Water Corporation under the
Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources
South: Ministry of Rural Development and
Cooperatives
North: Federal Ministry of Agriculture and
Forestry
South: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry
North: National Council for Child Welfare, UNGovernment Committee on Children and Armed
Conflict, Humanitarian Affairs Commission,
Commissioner for Refugees
South: SSRRC, Ministry of Gender, Social
Welfare and Religious Affairs, SPLA,
SSDDRC/SPLA
North: National Mine Action Authority
South: Southern Sudan Demining Commission
North: Humanitarian Affairs Commission,
Ministry of International Cooperation
South: Southern Sudan Relief and Rehabilitation
Commission, Ministry of Regional Cooperation
North: Humanitarian Affairs Commission
South: SRRC
North: Humanitarian Affairs Commission
South: SRRC
Education and Culture (E)
Health and Nutrition (HN)
Water and Sanitation (WS)
Food Security and
Livelihoods (FSL)
Protection and Human
Rights (PHR)
Mine Action (MA)
Common Services and
Coordination (CCS)
Non-Food Items and
Emergency Shelter (NS)
Cross-Sector Support for
Return and Reintegration
(RR)
Camp Coordination and
Camp Management
Cluster
28
29
30
Lead Agency
(international actors)
UNOPS
UNOPS
WHO/UNICEF
UNICEF
FAO/WFP
UNMIS POC/ UNHCR
UNMAS
OCHA/RCSO
UNJLC
UNMIS RRR
UNHCR
ICC, 14.07.2008, http://www.icc-cpi.int/menus/icc/press%20and%20media/press%20releases/press%20releases%20%282008%29/a, viewed on 24.11.2011.
Reliefweb, 4.3.2009, ‘Sudan expels aid agencies after ICC warrant’, http://reliefweb.int/node/299886, viewed on 24.11.2011.
http://www.humanitarianreform.org/humanitarianreform/Default.aspx?tabid=589, viewed on 15.11.2011.
7
Synthesis
A number of different conflicts continue to constitute a threat for Sudan. Consequences of climate change
might aggravate conflicts in the future. The following points illustrate the main risks in this country based on
hazards, vulnerability (as population exposed) and history.
-
Major conflicts, causing large-scale displacement (of several millions of people) are in Darfur, Abyei,
South Kordofan, Blue Nile and in the North-South border region in general.
-
Droughts (June-September) and floods are recurrent in Sudan. With increasing numbers of livestock, and
shifts towards sedentary farming, consequences of drought will be more strongly felt. Exposure today is
relatively low.
Resources & contacts
www.hac.gov.sd (in Arabic)
http://reliefweb.int/taxonomy/term/220
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/horn-of-africa/sudan.aspx
http://www.who.int/countries/sdn/en/
http://www.fews.net/pages/country.aspx?gb=sd&l=en
www.sudantribune.com
http://www.radiodabanga.org/ (on Darfur)
Bernadette Hermans (PO ER/EP, Cordaid HQ): [email protected], +31 7031 36 679
Jeroen de Zeeuw (PO CT, Cordaid HQ): [email protected], +31 6 50476550
Ilse Simma (Coordinator, Caritas Coordination Unit): [email protected], +249955736809
John Ashworth (Sudan expert, freelance consultant) : [email protected]; +249919695362
8