Journal of Environmental Management 90 (2009) 3185–3196
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Journal of Environmental Management
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jenvman
Review
China’s water scarcity
Yong Jiang*
Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Michigan State University, 85 Agriculture Hall, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA
a r t i c l e i n f o
a b s t r a c t
Article history:
Received 6 May 2008
Received in revised form
9 March 2009
Accepted 16 April 2009
Available online 17 June 2009
China has been facing increasingly severe water scarcity, especially in the northern part of the country.
China’s water scarcity is characterized by insufficient local water resources as well as reduced water
quality due to increasing pollution, both of which have caused serious impacts on society and the
environment. Three factors contribute to China’s water scarcity: uneven spatial distribution of water
resources; rapid economic development and urbanization with a large and growing population; and poor
water resource management. While it is nearly impossible to adjust the first two factors, improving
water resource management represents a cost-effective option that can alleviate China’s vulnerability to
the issue. Improving water resource management is a long-term task requiring a holistic approach with
constant effort. Water right institutions, market-based approaches, and capacity building should be the
government’s top priority to address the water scarcity issue.
Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Water resources
Scarcity
Pollution
China
Management
1. Introduction
China has been facing increasingly severe water scarcity. With
insufficient water resources to meet rising water consumption,
over-withdrawal of both surface water and groundwater has
occurred in many areas of northern and eastern China. Overexploiting water resources has led to serious environmental
consequences, such as ground subsidence, salinity intrusion, and
ecosystem deterioration (Liu and Yu, 2001; Han, 2003; Foster
et al., 2004; Liu and Xia, 2004; Fan et al., 2006; Cai and Ringler,
2007; Xia et al., 2007). Meanwhile, poor water quality caused by
pollution further exacerbates the lack of water availability in
water-scarce areas (SEPA, 1991–2007; Zhu et al., 2001; Liu and
Diamond, 2005; Li, 2006; CAS, 2007; WB, 2007a). Water shortages and poor water quality are interacting with each other and
threatening China’s food security, economic development, and
quality of life.
The Chinese government is aware of the water scarcity
problem and started reforming its water resource management in
the late 1990s. Yet the problems of water shortages and degraded
water quality are still severe. The complexity of China’s water
scarcity issue and its emerging serious effects on society and the
environment raise many important questions. Is the water
* Tel.: þ1 517 353 2981; fax: þ1 517 432 1800.
E-mail address: [email protected]
0301-4797/$ – see front matter Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2009.04.016
problem well understood? What has caused China’s water scarcity? How could the Chinese government target its efforts to
more effectively improve water resource management and
to better address water resource issues? China is motivated to
address the water problem as part of its policy initiative
to promote ‘‘scientific development’’ consistent with a healthy
environment (SC, 2006; MWR, 2007b). Water resource management is a top priority in the government’s policy agenda (SC,
2006). As China struggles to develop effective approaches to
alleviate water shortages, a clear understanding of the water
scarcity issue is critically important.
China’s water resource issues have attracted extensive
worldwide attention and have been covered by major media
outlets such as the New York Times and the Economist (Wong,
2007; Yardley, 2007; Economist, 2009). China’s water shortage is
of global concern because China and the rest of the world are
increasingly connected, both economically and environmentally
(Liu and Diamond, 2005). The water shortage could have
a worldwide impact if China’s ability to produce sufficient food to
feed a large and growing population is restricted (Brown and
Halweil, 1998; Tso, 2004; Cai and Ringler, 2007). Addressing the
issue will benefit global sustainable development, especially since
water scarcity is threatening China’s economic development and
its sustainability.
This paper is intended to provide an overview and synthesis of
China’s water scarcity by assembling updated, publically available
data. It attempts to develop an understanding of existing water
resource issues that are critical to China’s sustainable development.
3186
Y. Jiang / Journal of Environmental Management 90 (2009) 3185–3196
Fig. 1. Map of major rivers and watersheds in China. The increasing darkness indicates a decreasing annual per capita water availability.
In section 2, the paper introduces and describes China’s water scarcity in terms of water quantity and quality. The first part of Section 2
summarizes the natural characteristics of China’s water resources
and their insufficient quantity indicated by water shortages, overexploitation of water resources, and the emerging environmental
consequences due to water resource overexploitation. The second
part of Section 2 focuses on the reduced quality of available water,
which has intensified the shortage of available water. Section 3
analyzes the causes of the water scarcity, including water resource
management issues that need to be addressed to promote sustainable use of water resources. Section 4 summarizes current policy
initiatives and outlines challenges for future water resource
management. The paper concludes with policy suggestions in
section 5.
2. China’s water resources and scarcity
China’s water resources are spatially distributed with temporal
dynamics. While facing increasing water shortages, China also is
experiencing water resource overexploitation and degraded water
quality, resulting in serious environmental and socio-economic
impacts.
2.1. Water resources and spatio-temporal characteristics
China’s water resources are geographically divided into nine
major river basins, including Yangtze, Yellow (Huang), Hai-Luan,
Huai, Song-Liao, Pearl, Southeast, Southwest, and Northwest
(Fig. 1). Accounting for inter-year variation, the average volume of
internal renewable water resources in China is estimated to be
approximately 2812 billion m3 per year, which includes both
surface water and groundwater. This volume ranks fifth in the
world behind Brazil, Russia, Canada, and Indonesia.1
The temporal dynamics of China’s water resources are determined by precipitation. Approximately 98% of China’s surface water
is recharged by precipitation (MWR, 2004a). While creating the
spatially uneven distribution of water resources, the spatiotemporal pattern of precipitation further reinforces the spatial
distribution of water resources by introducing a spatially heterogeneous temporal variation. Affected by a strong monsoon climate,
the annual average precipitation gradually decreases in a spatial
gradient from more than 2000 mm at the southeastern coastline to
usually less than 200 mm at the northwestern hinterlands (MWR,
2004a). The ratio of maximum to minimum annual precipitation
recorded possibly exceeds 8 in northwestern China, but only ranges
between 2 and 3 or less than 2 in southern and southwestern part
(MWR, 2004a). In most areas of the country, precipitation within
four consecutive months at maximum approximately accounts for
70% of annual precipitation (MWR, 2007b). This spatio-temporal
pattern of precipitation leads to a serious risk of flooding as well as
drought, especially in northern China. Runoffs of the Hai and Huai
rivers fall to 70% of their averages every four years and to 50% every
20 years (Berkoff, 2003).
2.2. Quantity-related water scarcity
Quantity-related water scarcity is attributed to the shortfall in
water resource volume to meet water needs. This relative
1
The total volume of water resources is the amount of a 10th frequency dry year
over multiple years. The data are from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO)
AQUASTAT database, retrieved in November 2007.
Y. Jiang / Journal of Environmental Management 90 (2009) 3185–3196
quantitative insufficiency of water resources is indicated by water
shortages, water resource overexploitation, and the effect of water
resource overexploitation on the environment.
2.2.1. Water shortages
Since the 1980s, China has been facing water shortages of
increasing magnitude and frequency for urban industry, domestic
consumption, and irrigated agriculture (WB, 2002). In normal water
years, among 662 cities, 300 will have insufficient water supplies
and 110 will experience severe water shortages; 30 out of 32
metropolitan areas with populations of more than 1 million people
struggle to meet water demands (Li, 2006). At current water supply
levels, the total water shortage is estimated to be 30–40 billion m3
per year and is even larger in dry years (MWR, 2007b). By 2050,
China’s total water deficit could reach 400 billion m3 (roughly 80% of
the current annual capacity of approximately 500 billion m3) (Tso,
2004). During 2001–2005, water shortages caused industrial losses
of 1.62% of China’s annual GDP (MWR, 2007b). Unless measures are
taken to reduce demand and augment supply, the total water
shortage for the Yellow-Hai-Huai area in northern China was projected to be 56.5 billion m3 by 2050 (WB, 2002).
2.2.2. Water resource use and overexploitation
North China has experienced heavy demand for water, and
groundwater is an important source for water supply in this area.
As demonstrated by Table 1, in 2006, North China got 63.3% of its
water supply from surface water and 36.3% from groundwater. This
accounted for 36.9% of surface water resources and 36.3% of
groundwater resources. The average rate of water resource use
ranged from 31.0% to 91.7% for basins in the north compared to rates
of 1.7–19.5% in the south. In particular, the use rate of water
resources in the Hai River basin reached to 91.7%. Although the
scientific standard is case-specific on the percentage of water
resources that should be reserved for environmental purposes,
some studies indicate that 30–40% of stream flows is a reasonable
rate to maintain a healthy aquatic ecosystem (See Smakhtin et al.,
2004; Tso, 2004). The up to 90% rate of water resource use in North
China could increase the risk of negative environmental effects.
2.2.3. Reduced instream flow and degraded aquatic ecosystems
Excessive water resource division reduces instream flows in
many rivers and has caused negative impacts on aquatic
Table 1
China’s water supply in 2006 and renewable water resources.a
Region
9
Water supply (%), 10 m
Surface
North
Song-Liao
Hai
Huang
Huai
Northwest
South
Yangtz
Pearl
Southeast
Southwest
166.4
32.7
13.4
25.6
42.0
52.7
304.3
179.7
83.2
31.5
9.9
National
470.7 (81.5)
a
3
(63.3)
(54.6)
(34.7)
(65.2)
(71.1)
(84.9)
(95.6)
(95.6)
(95.1)
(96.6)
(96.5)
Water resource use
rate,%
Aquifer
Totalb
92.6
27.2
25.2
13.7
17.1
9.4
14.0
8.3
4.3
1.1
0.4
259.0
59.8
38.6
39.3
59.1
62.1
318.3
187.9
87.5
32.6
10.2
(35.7)
(45.4)
(65.3)
(34.8)
(28.9)
(15.1)
(4.4)
(4.4)
(4.9)
(3.4)
(3.5)
106.6 (18.5)
Surface
Aquifer
Total
(100)
(100)
(100)
(100)
(100)
(100)
(100)
(100)
(100)
(100)
(100)
36.9
19.8
46.5
38.8
56.7
45.3
13.5
18.9
17.8
12.3
1.7
36.3
43.5
95.1
33.7
43.5
10.8
2.4
3.3
3.8
1.8
0.2
48.3
31.0
91.7
52.8
61.5
47.6
14.0
19.5
18.6
12.6
1.7
577.2 (100)
17.4
12.9
20.5
Water supply data are from MWR (2007a) for year 2006. Data on average annual
renewable water resources are from UNESCAP (1997).
b
Total water supply does not include supply from other sources. Surface water
and groundwater are interrelated, and therefore, the total amount of water
resources may be smaller than the sum of surface water and groundwater.
3187
ecosystems. In the Hai River basin, 40%dabout 4000 kmdof water
courses dried up and 194 natural lakes and depressions with a total
area of 6.67 km2 disappeared (Wang et al., 2000). The discharge
from the river to the ocean dwindled from an annual average of
24 billion m3 in the 1950s to 1 billion m3 in 2001 (Xia et al., 2007).
The aquatic ecosystem has deteriorated and many estuarine species
are now extinct (Xia et al., 2004). In the Yellow River, global ENSO
events have caused a 51% decrease in river discharge to the sea
since the 1950s and diverting water for human use further reduces
stream flows and sediment discharge with more frequent flow
cutoffs downstream for longer durations (Wang et al., 2006a; Fan
et al., 2006). In particular, the lower reach of the Yellow River had
no flow for 226 consecutive days from February 7 to December 23,
1997; the length of the main channel with no flow was 700 km
from the downstream, a distance accounting for 90% of the river
course in the lower reach (Liu and Xia, 2004; Fan et al., 2006; Wang
and Jin, 2006). The Yellow River Delta is becoming more fragile and
susceptible to natural hazards (Deng and Jin, 2000; Lin et al., 2001;
Huang and Fan, 2004; Fan et al., 2006; Wang et al., 2006a).
2.2.4. Groundwater depletion
A large volume of literature has recorded increasing groundwater depletion in North China over the last two decades (e.g.,
Chen, 1985; Liu and Wei, 1989; Lou, 1998; Wu et al., 1998; Chen and
Xia, 1999; Liu and Yu, 2001; Xia and Chen, 2001). Since the
beginning of the 1980s, regions that overexploit groundwater have
increased from 56 to 164 and the total area subject to groundwater
overexploitation has increased from 87,000 km2 to 180,000 km2
(MWR, 2007b). Seventy percent (or 90,000 km2) of the North China
Plain has been affected by groundwater overextraction (Liu and Yu,
2001). In the western part of the 3-H basin, the groundwater table
has been declining at an accelerating rate, increasing from 3–4 m in
the 1950s to more than 20 m in the 1980s and to about 30 m in the
1990s (Liu and Xia, 2004). In the Hai River basin, groundwater
withdrawal has exceeded the recharge rate, causing an average
recharge deficit of 40–90 mm per year, which is equivalent to
a continuous water table decline of 0.5 m per year (Foster et al.,
2004). Most rural areas on the piedmont plain stretching onto the
alluvial flood plain on the North China Plain have experienced
water table declines of more than 20 m for shallow groundwater
and more than 40 m for deep aquifers since 1960 (Foster et al.,
2004). Greater declines have also been observed in many urban
centers. In Beijing, groundwater tables have dropped by 100–300 m
(WB, 2001).
2.2.5. Seawater intrusion and ground subsidence
Seawater intrusion and ground subsidence are common in many
areas where groundwater is overexploited (Han, 2003). In coastal
regions, falling groundwater tables can break the balance at the
interface between freshwater and seawater and induce subsurface
migration of seawater toward land. Seawater intrusion has
occurred in 72 locations in Hebei, Shandong, and Liaoning provinces, covering a total area of 142 km2 in 1992 (WB, 2001). Falling
groundwater tables also have caused ground subsidences in
northern and eastern China. Cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, and
Shanghai have been subject to ground subsidences of up to several
meters (Shalizi, 2006). In addition, groundwater overexploitation
has led to aquifer salinization, which is even more significant than
seawater intrusion in some areas (Foster et al., 2004).
2.3. Quality-related water scarcity
Quality-related water scarcity is caused by poor water quality
that does not support any economic use of water rather than
insufficient quantity. China has been experiencing water quality
Y. Jiang / Journal of Environmental Management 90 (2009) 3185–3196
degradation due to wastewater discharge coupled with insufficient
treatment (Wu et al., 1999). Degraded water quality further intensifies the quantitative insufficiency of the naturally available freshwater, affecting China’s socio-economic development.
1
0.9
0.8
0.7 0.71
0.63
0.6
0.24
0.31
0.27
0.21
0.22
0.16
0.19
0.18
07
05
20
03
20
01
0.71
07
3
05
20
20
01
07
05
20
20
03
01
20
99
20
97
19
95
19
93
19
19
91
Year
0.73
0.73
0.6
97
0.51
0.44
0.82
0.76
0.71
0.67
95
0.51
0.65
0.7
0.82
0.75
0.73
19
0.74
93
0.78 0.81
0.92
0.78 0.76
19
0.83
19
0.72 0.74
0.8
91
0.84
0.8
The Song-Liao River Basin
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
19
0.67 0.66
19
Proportion of Monitored Water
Sections with Poor Water Quality
(Grades IV, V, or V+)
The Huai River Basin
0.82
20
97
Year
Year
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.78
0.41 0.41
95
0.44
19
20
07
03
20
05
20
20
01
99
19
19
97
19
95
19
93
0.29
0.75
0.5 0.59
0.5
93
0.5
0.86
0.7
19
0.6
0.78 0.78
0.72
0.74
19
0.64
0.86
0.91
91
0.67
The Hai River Basin
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
19
0.66
0.77
Proportion of Monitored Water
Sections with Poor Water Quality
(Grades IV, V, or V+)
0.77
0.71
0.63
0.65
0.67 0.69
19
91
Proportion of Monitored Water
Sections with Poor Water Quality
(Grades IV, V, or V+)
0.88
0.66
0.18
Year
The Yellow River Basin
0.7
0.18
0.11
Year
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.24
0.21
0.28
07
0.23
0.24
05
0.28
0.37
20
0
97
19
19
99
0.25
0.21
95
93
19
19
91
0.2
0.28
0.25
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
0.29
0.24
0.5
0.47
20
0.48
0.32
0.28
0.3 0.32
The Pearl River Basin
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
03
The Yangtze River Basin
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
19
Proportion of Monitored Water
Sections with Poor Water Quality
(Grades IV, V, or V+)
Fig. 2. Trend of proportion of monitored water sections with poor water quality in
China. Data source: SEPA (1991–2007).
20
2007
01
2005
20
2003
99
2001
99
1999
Year
20
1997
99
1995
20
1993
19
0
1991
20
0.18
19
0.1
97
0.2
19
0.42
95
0.38
19
0.44
93
0.39
19
0.39
0.3
2.3.1. Degrading water quality
In China, water quality is broken into five categories that can be
described as ‘‘good’’ (Grades I, II, and III) or ‘‘poor’’ (Grades IV and V
or Vþ, which cannot support drinking and swimming). As shown by
Fig. 2, China’s general water quality trend is characterized by
extended water sections of poor quality. Fig. 3 demonstrates the
spatial difference in water quality trend across major river basins. In
South China, 20% of the monitored water sections in the Yangtze
and Pearl River basins have poor water quality (Fig. 3). In North
China, all major river basins experience water quality degradation,
and the percentage of monitored water sections ranked poor
ranges from 50% in the Yellow River basin to 78% in the Hai River
basin (Fig. 3). The spatial characteristics of water quality status
reveal a challenging water resource management situation in North
China where water shortages and degraded quality interact and
reinforce the negative effects of each other.
91
0.4
0.58 0.59
19
0.5
0.62
0.48
0.44
19
0.6
Proportion of Monitored Water
Sections with Poor Water Quality
(Grades IV, V, or V+)
0.7
Proportion of Monitored Water
Sections with Poor Water Quality
(Grades IV, V, or V+)
Proportion of Monitored Water
Sections with Poor Water Quality
(Grades IV, V, or V+)
3188
Year
Fig. 3. Trends of proportions of monitored water sections with poor water quality for major river basins in China. Data source: SEPA (1991–2007).
Y. Jiang / Journal of Environmental Management 90 (2009) 3185–3196
3189
China has a large number of lakes and reservoirs with a total
freshwater capacity of about 863 billion m3 (Jin et al., 2005). The
water quality of lakes and reservoirs traditionally is measured by
trophic status and can be classified into oligotrophic, mesotrophic,
eutrophic, and hypertrophic based on increasing levels of nutrients
in the water. A moving from oligotrophic to hypertrophic indicates
a transition from relatively unpolluted to highly polluted water.
China’s lakes and reservoirs are experiencing accelerated eutrophication and degraded water quality. Jin et al. (1995) found that
most of the 34 lakes studied were of mesotrophic status in the
1970s; the percentage of eutrophic lakes increased from 5% to 55%
between 1978 and 1987. Currently, 57.5% of the 40 main freshwater
lakes in China have become eutrophic and hypertrophic (Table 2).
According to the 2006 China Environment Bulletin (SEPA, 2007), of
the 27 lakes of national priority for pollution control, only 8 (or
29%) met the standards for good water quality and 19 (or 70%) were
ranked poor. The three major lakes including Tai, Chao, and Dianchi
are the most polluted with water quality below Grade V.
With a lack of clean, usable water, households, industries, and
agriculture were forced to cut back their water use. At the same
time, the limited available water resources were threatened by
pollution. From 2000 to 2003, as much as 25 billion m3 of water
was not used because of pollution (WB, 2007a). About 47 billion m3
of the water that was used came from degraded supplies that did
not meet the before-treatment quality standard (WB, 2007a),
which was almost 10% of China’s total water supply of 563.3 billion
m3 in 2005 (NBSC, 2006).
Degraded water quality has caused serious impacts on society.
In 2003, economic losses attributed to poor water quality were at
least 158 billion yuan or 1.16% of China’s annual GDP (WB, 2007a).
Fig. 4 shows the cancer mortality rates associated with poor water
quality. The rates of stomach, liver, and bladder cancers are highest
in rural areas and the mortality rates of liver and stomach cancers in
China are well above the world averages (WB, 2007a).
2.3.2. Socio-economic impact
Water scarcity due to poor water quality has occurred in
northern and eastern China. Shanghai, located at the downstream of the Yangtze River and the Lake Tai basin, has its water
polluted from both upstream and the local area. Zhejiang faces
the same problem: water scarcity not because of a lack of water
to use, but because poor quality renders water unusable. In May
2007, a sudden large algae bloom in Lake Tai polluted 70% of the
local water supply in Wuxi in eastern China, affecting 2 million
people.
Poor water quality threatens water availability even in southern
China where water resources are abundant. Zhu et al. (2002) estimated that in the Pearl River basin, pollution degraded water
resources would reach 352 million m3 in 2010 and 537 million m3
in 2020. This amount of water could otherwise support 2.54 million
and 3.68 million people in the basin each year, respectively.
Many factors contribute to China’s water scarcity. Naturally, the
spatio-temporal distribution of water resources is inconsistent with
socio-economic needs for water. This inconsistency could cause
a conflict between water supply and demand, and this conflict is
intensifies by economic development, population growth, and
urbanization. To make the situation worse, water resource
management has been poor, increasing China’s vulnerability with
serious social and environmental consequences.
Table 2
Current trophic level of lakes and reservoirs in China.a
Lakes
Five major lakes
Poyang
Dongting
Tai
Hongze
Chao
Year
2000
2001
2001
2004
1999
Water quality
parameter
TP, mg/L
TN, mg/L
0.102
0.336
0.126
0.103
0.193
0.862
0.89
3.24
1.906
2.96
Trophic state
Mesotrophic–eutrophic
Eutrophic
Eutrophic
Eutrophic
Eutrophic
3. Causes of water scarcity
3.1. Natural characteristics of water resources inconsistent with
water needs
The spatial distribution of China’s water resources is inconsistent with the local socio-economic needs for water. The majority of
China’s water resources are located in the southern part of the
country, whereas the greatest need for water comes from northern
and eastern China. As demonstrated by Table 3, the northern China
accounts for 45.2% of the country’s total population but only has
19.1% of the country’s water resources. This spatially uneven
distribution creates extremely low water availability on a per capita
basis in many local areas to the north of the Yellow River. The
Yellow (Huang)-Huai-Hai river basins (called the ‘‘3-H’’ area)
features major cities, including Beijing and Tianjin, and the volume
of renewable water resources ranges from 314 m3 per capita per
year (860 L per capita per day) in the Hai River basin to 672 m3 per
capita per year (1841 L per capita per day) in the Yellow River basin
35
2003
2003
2001
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
0.016
0.17
0.125
0.478
0.24
0.529
0.22
0.124
0.033
0.39
3.06
2.5
3.5
1.73
5.45
3.04
0.83
0.28
Mesotrophic
Eutrophic
Eutrophic
Eutrophic
Eutrophic
Eutrophic
Eutrophic
Eutrophic
Mesotrophic
Reservoir
Miyun
Dahuofang
Yuqiao
Guanting
Shanzai
1990
1988–1991
1999
2000
2001
0.018
0.06
0.14
0.047
0.05
0.115
1.09
2.5
2.92
0.27
Mesotrophic
Mesotrophic–eutrophic
Eutrophic
Eutrophic
Mesotrophic–eutrophic
a
Mortanity Rate, 1/10 000
Major cities
Urban lakes
Cibi (Dali)
Xi (Hangzhou)
Dong (Wuhan)
Xuanwu (Nanjing)
Gantang (Jiujiang)
Nan (Changchun)
Lu (Guangzhou)
Xi (Huizhou)
Haixihai (Dali)
30
Medium/small cities
25
Rural
World average
20
15
10
5
0
Adapted from Jin et al. (1995), Jin (2003), and Jin et al. (2005).
Oesophagus
cancer
Stomach
cancer
Liver
cancer
Bladder
cancer
Cancer
Fig. 4. Mortality rates for diseases associated with water pollution in China. The world
average mortality rates are for year 2000 and the China mortality rates are for year
2003. Source: WB (2007a).
3190
Y. Jiang / Journal of Environmental Management 90 (2009) 3185–3196
Table 3
Spatial distribution of China’s water resources and other social variables.a
Region
Average annual renewable water
resources, billion m3 (%)
Surface
water
Ground
water
Totalb
North
450.7 (16.6) 255.1 (30.8) 535.8 (19.1)
Song-Liao
165.3 (6.1)
62.5 (7.5)
192.8 (6.9)
Hai-Luan
28.8 (1.1)
26.5 (3.2)
42.1 (1.5)
Huai
74.1 (2.7)
39.3 (4.7)
96.1 (3.4)
Huang
66.1 (2.4)
40.6 (4.9)
74.4 (2.6)
Northwest
116.4 (4.3)
86.2 (10.4) 130.4 (4.6)
South
2260.8 (83.4) 591.7 (69.3) 2276.6 (80.9)
Yangtze
951.3 (35.1) 246.4 (29.7) 961.3 (34.2)
Pearl
468.5 (17.3) 111.6 (13.5) 470.8 (16.7)
Southeastern 255.7 (9.4)
61.3 (7.4)
259.2 (9.2)
Southwestern 585.3 (21.6) 154.4 (18.6) 585.3 (20.8)
National
Populationc,
million (%)
592.4
119.6
133.9
198.8
110.6
29.5
694.7
428.3
171.0
74.5
20.9
Table 4
Standards measuring water scarcity.a
Per capita
water
resources,
m3
(45.2)
904.1
(9.1)
1612.1
(10.2)
314.4
(15.2)
483.4
(8.4)
672.4
(2.3)
4417.2
(53.0) 3279.6
(32.7) 2244.7
(13.0) 2753.3
(5.7)
3481.3
(1.6) 28064.7
2711.5 (100) 828.8 (100) 2812.4 (100) 1311.1 (100)
2145.1
a
Water resource data are from UNESCAP (1997); population data are from MWR
(2007a).
b
The sum of water resources from surface and aquifer may exceed the total water
resources by the amount of overlap between them, since surface water interacts
with groundwater with the river base flow formed by groundwater and part of
groundwater recharge coming from percolation of surface water.
c
The derived population data for watersheds may not sum up to the total population due to estimation error.
Water availability, m3 per
capita per year
Consequences
<1700
<1000
Disruptive water shortage can frequently occur
Severe water shortage can occur threatening food
production and economic development
Absolute water scarcity would result
<500
a
Adopted from Wang and Jin (2006).
1.3 billion (NBSC, 2006), which accounted for 20% of the world’s
total population (UNPD, 2006). Yet China only possesses 6.5% of the
world’s total renewable freshwater resources. With its large population, China’s water availability was estimated at 2151 m3 per
capita per year (5893 L per capita per day), which was approximately 25% of the 8,484 m3 per capita per year (23248 L per capita
per day) world average.2 Moreover, China also has undergone
accelerated urbanization. China’s urban population is more than
doubled in less than 25 years and accounted for 43% of the total
population in 2005 (NBSC, 2006). A large population and rapid
urbanization apply great pressure on infrastructure development
and public services such as drinking water supply and sewage
treatment.
3.3. Poor water resource management
(Table 3). Using common water scarcity measurements (Table 4),
the 3-H area is facing severe or even absolute water shortages. The
low availability of water resources at the local level sets the stage
for conflict between finite water resources and water demand that
can increase without limits.
In recent years, climate change has underscored the problems
that come from the uneven distribution of water resources as areas
where water is scarce become drier. In the Yellow River basin,
average temperatures have increased while precipitation and river
runoff have decreased in the past 50 years (Fu et al., 2004; Liu and
Xia, 2004; Yang et al., 2004). In the past 20 years, climate change
has decreased water resources in northern China, with the annual
flows of the Hai, Yellow, and Huai Rivers reduced 41%, 15%, and 15%,
respectively (MWR, 2007b). In addition, the loss of glaciers and
wetlands upstream from the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has
decreased river runoffs by 917 billion m3 over the past 50 years and
will lead to an annual loss of 143 billion m3 in the future (Wang
et al., 2006b).
3.2. Rapid industrialization and urbanization associated with
a large population
While spatial distribution may cause water shortages in
certain areas, rapid industrialization and urbanization coupled
with a growing, large population further increases the risk of
water scarcity by creating an ever-increasing demand for water.
With its annual GDP growing at an average rate of 9.7% since
1990, China has one of the fastest growing economies in the
world (NBSC, 2006). China’s economic growth, however, is largely
driven by industrialization with extensive but inefficient use of
natural resources. In 2004, China contributed barely 4% of the
global GDP, yet its world natural resource consumption was 15%
for water, 28% for steel, 25% for aluminum, and 50% for cement
(D’Aquino, 2005). Rapid industrialization has dramatically
affected China’s environment and natural resources, including
water.
At the same time, China’s population is large and continues to
grow. In 2005, China’s population was estimated at approximately
As water resources become limited or scarce relative to
dramatically growing human needs, effective management of the
limited available water resources becomes critical. Yet, China’s
water resource management has been poor, which increases the
country’s vulnerability to increasingly severe water shortages.
Economically, water resources are a common-pool resource. This
means that people have no incentive to save or use water efficiently, so effective management to deal with the externality of
water use and market failure is needed. Over the past decades,
China’s water resource management, unfortunately, has been
dominated by engineering projects to satisfy water demands rather
than improving water use efficiency. The institutional system of
water resource management is fragmented and ineffective. Water
policies largely fail to account for the economic nature of water
resources in relation to their natural characteristics.
3.3.1. Fragmented institutional system of water resource
management
China’s institutional system of water resource management
involves multiple government agencies at different levels. Lack of
effective coordination and cooperation among government
agencies has led to fragmented water resource institutions which
impede effective management of water resources. Take water
quality management as an example. Ideally, water pollution control
levels are determined by water quality standards for designated
water uses. Socially-efficient water quality standards depend on the
costs of water pollution control, including pollution treatment costs
and the social costs of residue pollution, for designated water uses.
So socially-efficient, cost-effective water resource management
requires water pollution control integrated with water resource
planning that designates the uses of water bodies. China’s water
2
World water resource data are from EarthTrends Environmental Information,
Water Resources and Freshwater Ecosystems (Freshwater Resources 2005, http://
prelive.earthtrends.org/pdf_library/data_tables/wat2_2005.pdf,
published
by
World Resources Institute, which is from FAO AQUASTAT 2004. World population
data estimated for 2005 is from World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision
(UN Population Division, 2006).
Y. Jiang / Journal of Environmental Management 90 (2009) 3185–3196
3.3.2. Supply-driven water resources management and inefficient
water use
China’s water resource management traditionally has been
dominated by engineering projects to meet socio-economic needs for
water. This supply-driven water resource management style ignores
the economic nature of water resources and the potential conflict
between locally limited water availability and water demand that can
dramatically increase. With economic expansion and population
growth, this passive management with no restrictions on demand
has led to inefficient industrial structure and water use, intensifying
the conflict between water supply and demand. China has developed
an industrial structure that requires a large amount of water;
a different industrial structure with lower water needs would have
developed if measures had been taken to restrict demand.
With no restrictions on demand, it is not surprising that China’s
water use efficiency is low as compared to other industrialized
countries. Indicators measuring water use efficiency include
marginal water consumption per one more unit of economic return,
average economic return per unit of water consumption, or the
3
The SEPA was changed to the Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) in
2008.
120
Volume, 108m3/year
resource administration, however, is divided between these two
sectors and each has separate administrative authorities. The State
Environmental Protection Administration (SEPAP)3 mainly is
responsible for controlling water pollution, while the Ministry of
Water Resources (MWR) oversees water resources planning,
including designating water functional zones for different uses and
establishing corresponding water quality standards. With no
coordination mechanism, this institutional separation not only
impedes efficient water resource management but also increases
the administrative transaction costs.
China’s river basin management, which involves government
agencies at different administrative levels and across political
boundaries, is a second example of fragmented water resource
institutions. Integrated river basin management has been commonly
accepted as an effective approach for managing water resources
(Spulber and Sabbaghi, 1998). Although China has established basin
commissions for major rivers and lakes to promote integrated
management, these basin commissions have limited power to allocate water resources, coordinate water resource exploitation and
conservation, and enforce water resource planning at the basin level.
On the other hand, obscure delineation of authority and responsibilities among those government agencies involved in water
resource management at different levels undermines the ability of
basin commissions to regulate water resource exploitation within
a sustainable framework. This fragmented river basin management
has led directly to a water resource administration largely based on
political boundaries rather than on watersheds, which amplifies the
issue of water resources as a common-pool resource by creating
incentives for local myopic decision-makings on water resource
exploitation.
Fig. 5 details a case in the Yellow River basin where water withdrawals went beyond allocated water quotas. This water management failure eventually can be attributed to fragmented water
resource institutions at the basin level. The river basin commissions
under the MWR are responsible for watershed-wide water allocation
among provinces. Yet, issuing permits for water withdrawal is left to
local governments and their water resources bureaus that have no
representation in the basin commissions. With weak basin
commissions, there is no guarantee that water withdrawals are
regulated within the framework of basin-level allocation of water
resources.
3191
water quota allocation
water abstraction
105
90
75
60
45
30
15
0
Provinces
Fig. 5. Water quota allocation and water abstraction in year 1997 for the Yellow River
basin, China. Source: He and Chen (2001).
ratio of actual water consumption to diverted amount. In 2003,
China’s water use per 10,000 GDP and per 10,000 industry-added
value were 4.5 and 5–10 times the levels in developed countries,
respectively; China’s average recycling rate of industrial water use
was estimated to be 40–50%, compared to 80% in developed
countries (CAS, 2007). In agriculture, while allocating a large
volume of limited water resources to low value-added agriculture is
economically inefficient, low efficiency in agricultural water use
also has occurred. As indicated by CAS (2007) and Zhang et al.
(2007), the ratio of actual irrigation water consumption to the
amount diverted in China is only 0.45, far below the level of 0.7–0.8
in developed countries. Other studies reported that only 50% of
water from canals was delivered to the field (Xu, 2001) and only
about 40% of water withdrawal for agriculture was actually used on
crops (Wang et al., 2005).
The supply-driven water resource management also is responsible for the over-withdrawal of water resources. In recent years,
northern China has seen an increasing exploitation of groundwater
that may be attributed to the failure to regulate groundwater and to
restrict demands (Wang et al., 2007). According to extensive
surveys on rural groundwater use in northern China, Wang et al.
(2007) found that less than 10% of the well owners surveyed
obtained permits before drilling a well and only 5% of the villages
believed their drilling decisions needed to consider spacing decisions. Water extraction was not charged in any village and there
were no physical limits imposed on well owners (Wang et al.,
2007). From 2000 to 2003, the average annual amount of groundwater withdrawn was estimated to be 24 billion m3, with 74% of
that for agricultural use (WB, 2007a).
3.3.3. Underdeveloped water rights system
A water rights system is the foundation of effective water
resource management. Clearly defined, legally enforceable water
rights can provide incentives to improve water use efficiency.
Unfortunately, China’s institutional system of water rights has not
been well developed and is not strictly enforced. Managing water
resources based on water rights has not been successful. Much of
the water use inefficiency and the current water scarcity in China
can be attributed to an underdeveloped system of water rights.
In China, the State owns water resources except where water in
local ponds is owned by the local collectives that constructed the
ponds. On behalf of the State, the MWR manages water resource
exploitation by delegating management to river basin commissions
and local government bureaus. In 1988, China enacted its first water
law and established a permit system to regulate water withdrawal.
Regarded as defining the right to use water, the permit system is
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Y. Jiang / Journal of Environmental Management 90 (2009) 3185–3196
mainly for surface water and is far from being complete. Lack of clear
delineation of jurisdictional control over water impedes the development of a water rights system and its effective administration.
Agriculture is the largest water use sector, accounting for about
70% of China’s annual water consumption. Well defined farmers’
water rights could facilitate government efforts to improve water
use efficiency and mitigate water scarcity. Yet, farmers’ water rights
are largely unclear. For example, an important component of water
rights is the amount of water that one is entitled to use. Lack of
volumetric metering of water use at the farm level makes the water
rights of individual farmers unclear. Moreover, during water
shortages, farmers’ irrigation demands are often forced to yield to
domestic or industrial use without compensation. This implies
unclearly defined water rights, if any water rights at all. In addition,
decisions about irrigation water delivery, including volume and
timing, are largely made by irrigation districts rather than farmers.
With an irrigation water charge tied to the acreage of irrigated land
rather than actual water consumption, farmers have no incentives
to save water and use it efficiently.
Since 2000, China has been moving toward strengthening water
rights development and administration, including revising the
water law and issuing policy guidance. Water rights, however, are
still incomplete by modern standards (FAO, 2001). Systems have
not been established to manage the three components of water
rights: the amounts that can be withdrawn, transferred, and must
be returned with certain quality. Legal delineation is unclear on the
rights and responsibilities associated with a water withdrawal
permit. Rules and methods on water allocation are still incomplete.
Allocating water to establish initial water rights has not been
completed. Not all water uses are measured and managed by
permits. No coordination mechanism exists within basins to ensure
that water withdrawal permits are consistent with water allocation.
Although water rights trading has been proposed to promote efficient water resources allocation, the actual management still
largely depends on administrative command and control. With
underdeveloped water rights, it is difficult to regulate water use
within a sustainable framework.
China recently launched pilot projects in local areas to explore
water rights management. A good example is a MWR project in
Zhangye, Gansu to examine building a water-saving society with
tradable water quotas. This project has exposed barriers to water
rights trading, largely due to insufficient market institutions and
policies (Zhang, 2007). All the pilot projects show that farmers do
respond to incentives, implying that much of the inefficient use of
water can be attributed to the current water resource institutions
and policies failure to consider farmers’ incentives.
3.3.4. Inadequate water pricing
Water pricing is an important policy instrument that can
provide incentives for water saving and enhancing water use efficiency, although it alone may not resolve water resource issues
(Molle and Berkoff, 2008). Theoretically, market-determined prices
can balance water demand and supply by reflecting the value of
scarce water. The balancing process is based on a premise that
prices cover the full cost of water supply. China’s water prices,
however, historically have been set through a political top-down
administration instead of through the market. Prices are purposely
set low and are insufficient to cover the full cost of water supply, so
they do not allow the market to balance demand and supply. It is
estimated that current household expenditures for water only
account for about 1.2% of disposable income. This percentage is
lower than the 2% level that stimulates water-saving behavior and
is much lower than the 4% in developed countries (Zhang et al.,
2007). These low water prices provide little or no incentives to save
water.
The 2002 Water Law introduced a cost recovery policy for water
resource use. In the past few years, progress has been made in
reforming water tariffs in many cities. Nonetheless, raising water
prices has been slow because of concerns that access to water is
a human right. The user charges for urban water supplies and
wastewater treatment still do not fully cover all operating and
investment costs. In Xi’an, for instance, households pay 1.6 yuan/m3
for water, while the full cost is 5 yuan/m3 (OECD, 2007). Charges for
sewage treatment either have not been implemented, or are very
low. Insufficient water tariffs have led to slow infrastructure
development and poor services and maintenance. In urban areas,
the number of water leaks is among the highest in the world.
In agriculture, volumetric pricing of irrigation water use is
underdeveloped although it is China’s policy that water use charges
should be based on the actual amount of water consumption. Since
China’s farms are characterized by small size and fragmentation,
accurately measuring water use at the farm level to implement
volumetric pricing is difficult (Huang et al., 2009). While there may
be areas where irrigation charges reflect actual water consumption
at the village level, irrigation charges for individual farms in many
rural areas still are based on the number of acres irrigated rather
than the actual amount of water used for irrigation (Lohmar et al.,
2007). With the irrigation charges being sunk costs, farmers have
no incentive to save water and improve irrigation efficiency. This
may explain the low adaption rate (<20%) of water-saving technologies such as plastic sheeting, sprinkler system, drip irrigation,
and other efficient, less capital- and energy-intensive techniques in
water strapped northern China (Yang et al., 2003; Deng et al., 2006;
Blanke et al., 2007; Huang et al., 2009). On one hand, it is
economically inefficient to allocate a large amount of scarce water
to low value-added agriculture; on the other hand, irrigation water
use is not sufficiently constrained by water prices to improve efficiency. In addition, since water prices rarely reflect the full cost of
supplying water, including operation and maintenance costs plus
overhaul and replacement costs for water delivery systems, lack of
maintenance is common for irrigation infrastructure, further
increasing insufficient water use.
3.3.5. Insufficient investment in environmental protection and weak
pollution control
Water shortages due to poor water quality can be attributed to
insufficient investment in environmental protection and weak
pollution control. In the past three decades, investments in environmental protection accounted for only 0.68%, 0.81%, and 1.19% of
China’s GDP, respectively, which are insufficient to achieve planned
levels (WB, 2007b). In the next five years (2006–2010), investment
in environmental protection is slated to increase by 85% compared
to previous levels but that is still lower than investments in flood
control, soil conservation, and water resource allocation (Ma et al.,
2006). With insufficient funding, the development of urban sewage
treatment facilities, including sewer networks, has been slow,
especially in small cities and ‘‘established towns.’’ According to
a 2005 survey by the Ministry of Urban Construction, 278 out of 661
major cities did not build sewage treatment plants (CAS, 2007). In
2003, sewage treatment rates ranged from 43% for cities with more
than 2 million people to 16% for cities with populations of less than
200,000 (NBSC, 2004). Lagging sewage system development has
led to large amounts of untreated wastewater being dumped
directly into the environment, which may explain why pollution
control targets, such as reducing COD discharge by 10% by 2005,
have not been met.
Due to a lack of funding and weak regulation, water pollution in
China is increasing and pollution sources are becoming more
diverse. As demonstrated by Fig. 6, after declining form 1995 to
2000, industrial wastewater discharge has been increasing since
Y. Jiang / Journal of Environmental Management 90 (2009) 3185–3196
3.3.6. Other policy failures
In addition to the issues mentioned above, policies are not well
integrated with each other and may exacerbate water resource
issues. Many policies, including urban planning, industrial development policy, agricultural policy, etc., can have indirect effects on
water resources. If these potential effects are not accounted for,
policy outcomes will likely be inconsistent with the carrying
capacities of local water systems. The present discrepancy in the
distribution of socio-economic development and water resources is
a typical example of policy failure to consider water resources.
4. Government actions and challenges in the future
The Chinese government recognizes the water resource issues
and has been taking steps to promote sustainable water use (see
Yang and Pang, 2006). China has set up a series of policy goals and
priorities for water resource management in its 11th Five-Year Plan
(2006–2010) for Social and Economic Development (FYPWRD) that
determines ‘‘scientific development’’ and ‘‘harmonious society’’ as
the general goals and guiding principles (SC, 2006). The State Council
of the Chinese Government has established policy objectives
for water resource management, including strengthening river
basin management, protecting drinking water sources, combating
transboundary water pollution, enhancing water saving in
agriculture, and increasing the treatment rate of urban sewage by
2010 (SC, 2006).
The 11th Five-Year Plan for Water Resources Development
(FYPWRD) includes action plans and methods for implementation
4
China Environmental Statistics Yearbooks (SEPA, 1995–2006) indicate an
increasing rate of industrial wastewater discharge that meets the discharge standard for industrial enterprises at the county level or above for the period of
1995–2000. Since 2001, China Environment Statistical Yearbooks no longer list
industrial wastewater discharges by industrial ownership type, and consequently,
the range of wastewater discharge statistics is unclear.
Wastewater Discharge
(billion m3)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD)
Discharge (million ton)
Year
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
1.6
1.4
NH3-N Discharge
(million ton)
2000. Although the proportion of wastewater that meets discharge
regulation standard increased from 66.7% in 1999 to 91.2% in 2005
(SEPA, 1995–2006), untreated wastewater from town or village
plants still may be dumped directly into the water system.4 After
a steady decline since 2001, the industrial COD discharge increased
again in 2005 despite wastewater treatment rates that increased
from 85.2% in 2001 to 91.2% in 2005 (NBSC, 2006). A 2006 report by
the World Bank provides a detailed analysis of the characteristics of
industrial wastewater pollution (WB, 2006).
Domestic sewage discharge is increasing more rapidly than
industrial wastewater discharge. As demonstrated by Fig. 6,
domestic sewage discharge has surpassed industrial discharge in
terms of volume since 1999. In contrast to the decrease in industrial
COD discharge, domestic COD discharge has been increasing
(Fig. 6). While NH3-N contributions from both industrial and
domestic sources have increased, domestic sources contribute
almost twice as much as industry (Fig. 6).
Agricultural non-point source pollution is considered another
major pollution source that lacks control in China (Ongley, 2004;
Wang, 2006). Increased fertilizer application and livestock waste
have contributed large amounts of nutrients to downstream water
bodies (Liu and Qiu, 2007). Combined with industrial and domestic
wastewater, nutrient loads from agricultural runoffs are a major
reason for the accelerated eutrophication of major lakes in China.
Total nitrogen non-point source contributions for Lake Tai, Dianchi,
and Lake Chao were estimated at 59%, 33%, and 63%, respectively;
and total phosphate non-point source contributions were 30%,
41%, and 73%, respectively (Li et al., 2001).
3193
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Year
Total
Industrial
Industrial (County and Above Industrial Enterprise)
Industrial (Township and Village Industrial Enterprise)
Domestic
Fig. 6. Trend of wastewater, chemical oxygen demand (COD), NH3-N discharges in
China. Data source: SEPA (1991–2007) and SEPA (1995–2006).
(MWR, 2007b) and reflects a strategic shift toward sustainable
water resource development, including expediting water allocation,
developing water rights systems, implementing quota and demandside management, and improving water use efficiency and benefits.
As it reforms traditional water resource administration, China
also is actively investing in projects to augment the water supply
(MWR, 2007c). The most prominent example is the $62 billion
South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Intended to provide water
mainly for domestic and industrial uses in the arid north, this
project will divert up to 45 billion m3 of water per yeardan amount
3194
Y. Jiang / Journal of Environmental Management 90 (2009) 3185–3196
Fig. 7. Sketch map of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project of China. Source: Berkoff (2003) adapted from MWR (1995).
roughly equivalent to the annual volume of the Yellow River in
a normal yeardfrom the lower (eastern route), middle (middle
route), and upper reaches (western route) of the Yangtze River in
southern China by 2050 (Berkoff, 2003; Zhu, 2006) (Fig. 7). Both the
eastern and middle routes are under construction and are expected
to be completed by 2008 and 2014, respectively.
Nonetheless, many management issues still exist. As acknowledged by the 11th NFYPWRD, these issues include: (1) lagging
water resource management reforms; (2) lack of an integrated,
efficient, and effective institutional system; (3) weak water
resource management, including planning, policy design, monitoring, and regulation enforcement; (4) underdeveloped water
rights system; (5) slow establishment of water markets; (6) overemphasis on engineering projects compared to management
approaches, and (7) the lack of a stable financing mechanism for
environmental investment (MWR, 2007b).
Rapid economic development with a large, growing population
and urbanization represents a more serious challenge in the future.
By 2020, China’s population will pass 1.4 billion (UNPD, 2006), which
will reduce available water to less than 2008 m3 per capita per year
(or 5501 L per capita per day). Although still greater than the upper
bound of water stress at 1700 m3 per capita per year (or 4658 L per
capita per day) (Johnson et al., 2001), available water levels can be
extremely low at local areas such as the 3-H basin. Meanwhile,
urbanization will increase urban water use and sewage discharge,
which will create challenges because of reduced water resources.
China also will need to balance expanding agricultural water use
(to support food security and self-sufficiency) with increasing
demands for water in both domestic and industrial sectors, especially in the water-scarce north. As demonstrated by Table 5,
northern China will see a higher increase in total water use than the
south. In northern China, industrial and domestic water use will
increase by 50% and 35%, respectively, compared to a 13% increase
in agriculture. Given that agriculture consumes the largest amount
of water, the projected increase in the agricultural sector is still
remarkable although not as high as in the domestic and industrial
sectors. While northern China will face more serious challenges in
managing water resources, the projection implies that: 1) demandside management is essential to mitigate China’s vulnerability to
water scarcity; 2) improving water use efficiency in agriculture may
reduce water use and offset increasing demands for water in
domestic and industrial sectors; 3) strengthening and enhancing
industrial and domestic wastewater treatment with increasing
water use is critically important to protect scarce clean water.
Table 5
Current and projected water use by sectors and spatial scales.a
Year
Water use by sectors, billion m3 (%)
Total, billion m3
Domestic
Industry
Agriculture
Country level
2005
2030
Percentage increase
76.9 (14)
99.0 (15)
29%
128.6 (23)
159.3 (24)
24%
357.8 (63)
395.2 (61)
10%
563.3 (100)
653.5 (100)
16%
North
2005
2030
Percentage increase
30.0 (12)
40.6 (13)
35%
33.4 (13)
50.1 (17)
50%
185.7 (75)
210.5 (70)
13%
249.1 (100)
301.2 (100)
21%
South
2005
2030
Percentage increase
46.9 (15)
58.4 (17)
25%
95.2 (30)
109.2 (31)
15%
172.1 (55)
184.7 (52)
7%
314.2 (100)
352.3 (100)
12%
a
Data are from CAS (2007).
5. Conclusion and suggestions
China has been facing increasingly severe water scarcity, especially in the arid northern part of the country. China’s water scarcity
is characterized by insufficient quantities of water as well as poor
water quality, both of which have dramatic effects on society and
the environment. While rapid economic development combined
with population growth and urbanization triggers the potential
conflict between water supply and demand, poor water resource
management increases China’s vulnerability and further intensifies
the problem. Even more serious water use challenges will arise in
the future.
Effective water resource management is a promising approach
that can help alleviate China’s vulnerability, especially when water
scarcity tends to be more severe in the future. The natural condition
of water resources represents the physical limit to which China
Y. Jiang / Journal of Environmental Management 90 (2009) 3185–3196
needs to adapt in its development. While it is challenging or even
impossible in the short run to adjust population distribution, the
regional layout of urban systems, and the economic structure to
conform to the physical circumstance of water resources,
improving water resource management seems to be a cost-effective
approach that deserves government efforts and holds promise for
mitigating the effects of water shortages. Indeed, poor management is one of the most important factors responsible for current
water resources issues.
Addressing China’s water scarcity requires a holistic, integrated,
scientific approach with long-term, coordinated efforts. Given the
complexity of the issue and policy challenges (Lasserre, 2003), this
paper makes three recommendations that represent the current
policy priority for China to address the water scarcity issue while
improving water resource management.
First, China needs to improve or establish institutional systems
that register and regulate water withdrawal and use with clearly
defined, legally enforceable water rights. These institutional
systems may be defined by basins consistent with the hydrological
cycle of water resources. The basin commissions, under the
management of MWR, should be the leaders in authorizing and
regulating water use within their basin boundaries. Issuing water
withdrawal permits must be consistent with water resource planning and allocation. Water rights transfer based on initial water
allocation may be allowed as long as it is registered with the basin
commissions and has passed scientific assessment with no significant negative impact. A mechanism is needed to coordinate water
rights administration across government agencies. Until water use
is regulated and controlled by institutional systems, effective water
resource management cannot possibly be achieved.
Second, China needs to pay more attention to market-based
approaches as opposed to passively and solely relying on engineering measures to resolve water shortages. Appropriate engineering projects are necessary to ensure water supplies for
sustainable socio-economic development. Adopting engineering
projects to meet water demands, however, may not be always
socially efficient. The motivation for emphasizing market-based
approaches rather than engineering measures is based on the
economics of demand and supply and the resulting social welfare
effect. Specifically, both water demand and supply can adjust with
water prices. With administratively controlled, often low prices,
water demand is not restricted and may reach a level higher than
that which can be supplied at the full-cost recovery for given water
prices. In this case, pursuing engineering measures to meet the
demand is not only socially inefficient but also maybe expensive or
even impossible. Market-based approaches such as water pricing
and water rights trading can cost-effectively balance the demand
for water with the capacity of the water supply at a socially-efficient level. Market-determined prices not only cover the cost of
water supply but also restrict water demand while providing
incentives to save water. Allocating water rights and allowing water
rights trading provide an economic approach to resolving water
scarcity while mitigating the negative impact of water pricing, if
any, on the poor. To facilitate and regulate the implementation of
market-based approaches, the government needs to create rules
and conditions.
Third, research-based, data-driven decision support systems and
capacity building need to play an important role in government
efforts. Poor policy design and management not only waste limited
resources but also exacerbate water resource issues. Decision
support systems based on scientific research and reliable data is the
foundation of effective water resource management and can inform
good policy design. Currently, basin-level decision support systems
that integrate the biophysical and hydrological processes of water
resources and the socio-economic dynamics of water use are either
3195
unavailable or not well-developed. The capacity to conduct rigorous
policy-relevant analysis is weak. A unified information system with
measurement and quality standards that maintains a record of
water quality and quantity data has not been well developed. Lack of
capacity to conduct scientific research impedes identifying local
issues and the design of targeted policies. With its impressive
economic development, China is able to pursue more sophisticated
research with cutting-edge scientific methods. China can afford to
invest in scientific research and developing and maintaining
complete information systems. Of course, mechanisms are needed
that can effectively and efficiently convert and transfer scientific
information to policy design and water resource management.
Acknowledgments
This paper is written based on consulting work conducted for
the World Bank Analytical Advisory Assistance (AAA) Program,
‘‘Addressing China’s Water Scarcity: From Analysis to Action.’’ Dr.
Jian Xie provided valuable advice and materials for the consulting
work which help organize and prepare the paper. However, this
paper does not necessarily reflect the view of the World Bank.
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