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A roundtable discussion on ageing:
International science summit
on healthy ageing
872 U og 872 C
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The aging society can
be a resource
KEY POINTS
• Denmark as well as the rest of the world face radical demographic changes
• Up until now the increase in life duration has been estimated a threat to national economics
• However, the ever more capable group of elderly is also a huge resource
• If to use this capability it will be necessary to present far more reforms than what have been expected till now
So far, the booming number of elderly worldwide has almost exclusively been seen as a threat. Especially in the rich
parts of the world - including Denmark - concerns about
the increased strain on public budgets, increased indebtedness and more, has completely obscured the fact that the
increased life expectancy, which is the main cause of the
aging population, basically should be seen as a victory for
civilization. From an individual perspective a longer life
must be seen as a progress. Especially, if it is a rise in the
high-quality years of life. Therefore, the growing number
of elderly people will not necessarily become the load that
many fear. Rather, a growing number of functional elderly
will become a new resource, both regarding general labor
as well as civil society. In order to fulfill the potential gains,
it is, however, crucial that discussion about the retirement
age is contemplated in connection with changes needed in
for example health-, labor-, and educational politics.
This is the main conclusion of Monday Morning’s analysis of the aging society and its challenges and opportunities,
a conclusion developed in collaboration with the Center for
Healthy Aging at the Copenhagen University. The analysis
includes a wide range of reports and scientific studies and
interviews with both foreign and domestic experts in fields
such as gerontology, demography and economics.
It shows among others:
• That the current developments in the so-called average life expectancy - the estimated average lifetime of
a 0-year - by all accounts will continue to grow. Every
other Danish girl born today can expect to be more
100 years.
• That the elderly today is far from a homogeneous and
weak group. The vast majority is both functional and
very satisfied with their personal prospects.
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Mondaymorning
• That this development has great opportunities to
accelerate in future years, if you organize the National Health Service correctly, and further scientific
progress is made.
• That an exploitation of the potential of the aging society will place heavy demands on our adaptability
- both as individuals and societies.
A new era
The change in the global demographic composition marks
a new chapter in human history. In the rich parts of the
world population is aging rapidly - and the poor countries
are only a few decades behind. According to recent UN
projections of world population composition, World Population Prospects, the share of over 60-year-old will double
over the next 40 years - from the current approximately
11 per cent to approximately 22 per cent in 2050. So great
is the proportion already in the rich world, where it is expected to climb to a third in 2050. Nearly one out of ten
will be over 80-years-old.
In Denmark, the latest population projection projects
that the proportion of over 65-year-olds will increase from
16 per cent today to 25 per cent in 2042, after which it will
decline slightly. See Figure 1.
The largest growth will occur in the first half of the period. Until 2050 the share of over 65-year-old will grow by
approximately 60 per cent, and around 2020, this group for
the first time in history, will be larger than the 0-17 yearolds. The ratio of over 80-year-olds will increase by approximately 140 per cent. Therefore, it will not only be the
case that the Danish population is getting older. The aging
population will also be older than previous generation.
Behind this development two log-term trends and one
short-term trend is hidden.
The aging society increases
Age groups share of the total population
40
35
40-64 years
30
18-39 years
25
65 years+
20
0-17 years
15
10
5
0
2010
2050
Figure 1: Percentage of people over 65 will in 2042 represent
a quarter of the Danish population
Source: DST.
• People have much longer lives. Over the past 100
years, life expectancy in the rich world has increased
by 2-3 a month per year. In Denmark the life expectancy for men is around 77 years of age and for women around 81 years of age.
• People all over the world give birth to fewer children
than before, so the younger generations are having
more and more difficulty in competing in number
with the elderly. This tendency is newer than the increasing life expectancy and struck first through in
the rich countries, where women now have an average of 1.6 children - that is less than required, to sustain the population. Recent years in Denmark shows,
that women’s fertility rate have slightly increased and
now stands at approximately 1.8.
• The really big postwar generations - both in Denmark
and the rest of the rich world - are heading into retirement, while the generations that are entering the
labor market is relatively small.
The age dispersion up side down
In the first half of the 20th century it was especially declining juvenile mortality, which made the average life
expectancy increase. Since, the development has mainly
been through a decline in adult and elderly mortality. The
decrease is primarily due to a lower mortality from cardiovascular diseases, an improved lifestyle and more effective
treatments. It is, however, probably also connected with
the ‘new’ elderly not being as physically worn down than
previous generations and also having experienced fewer
infections. Their immune system is thus less “worn”.
Over the past 50 years the so-called residual-life-span
for 80-year-old women in countries with low mortality
rate is nearly doubled. Denmark is no exception, although
the evolution of the life-span has been uneven and lags behind many other countries, to which we usually compare
ourselves with. Residual life of a 65-year-old today is about
18 years for women and 15 years for men.
How great the revolution has been in reality can be observed by studying the remaking of the so-called population pyramid, which has happened over the last 100 years.
In 1910 the pyramid actually had the 0-29 year olds as the
largest population and the 30-59 year olds as the second
largest, and those over 60 years as a pyramid’s apex. Today
it is initiating a flip to turn up side down. See Figure 2.
The question of course is, whether this development
will continue. According to Professor James Vaupel, Max
Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock,
there is no sign that it is about to stall, “My expectation
is that life expectancy will continue to grow at the same
pace as now, and perhaps moreover accelerate. However,
the uncertainty is substantial - especially when you try to
look 20 years from now,” he says.
Vaupel, who is one of the world’s most renowned demographers has, in collaboration with Cambridge professor Jim Oeppen, demonstrated that virtually all previous predictions of a cap on life duration have proved too
conservative. During the last 100 years there has been an
amazingly constant development if you look at the countries that periodically had the highest life expectancy.
More ‘life’ in the years
So far the discussion of the aging society in the rich countries, have almost exclusively been about the problems,
that the growing number of elderly people can create for
the sustainability of current pension schemes and socialand health costs. One explanation is obviously that we basically think of aging as something negative.
But looking closely at developments behind the figures,
there is basis for optimism. The many economic doomsday
prophecies by the World Bank, OECD, EU etc. published
periodically, focuses mostly on the so-called elderly ratio the ratio between the number of elderly over 65 years and
the number of adults of working age (15-64 years).
The rich countries the elderly-quota typically lies between 1 to 4 and 1 to 5 - ie. 4-5 workers per elderly. And it
is expected that it will grow to 1 to 2 or 1 to 3.
It sounds dramatic. But the problem with the type of
projection is, that it sees the elderly as a homogeneous and
unchanging category, whilst forgetting the changes in the
aging population functional capabilities, underlying this
development, as well as the large individual differences
within the group. Putting it bluntly, for example an American in the 70s can either be sitting in a wheelchair or like
John McCain run for the presidential election.
Not least in light of recent years of research, it must be
noted that the 70-year-olds are not what they have been.
A Danish study from 2008 shows, that the life extension
of the last 15 years will not only have put several years on
top of the life expectancy but also brought more life to the
years lived. It turns out moreover that the active years of
life - without disabilities - is increasing even faster than
life. However it is not a completely rosy picture, as the
same study shows that the extra years of life will also include more years with illnesses.
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According to Professor Bernard Jeune, Danish Aging
Research Center at The University of Southern Denmark
who is one of the makers of this study, it should be neither
surprising nor create concern: “The explanation is that we
have still improved diagnostics and treatment of chronic
diseases like diabetes. Meaning, that more people have
the disease at the age of 65, but on the other hand they
can live with it for several years more than before, without
compromising their functional capablities. The last, being
crucial in relation to for example labor force participation
or dependency on aid.”
If absolutely wanting to think in chronological age
groups, says Jeune, one should change the definition of aging, so it was only the over 80-year-olds, they spoke with.
In that case, the ratio quota would be less than 1 to 10
Even among the oldest of the elderly a positive development is traced. According to a study by the Danish Aging
Research Center, who followed a group of 92-year-olds
in a number of years, it appeared that the few remaining
100-year-olds were just as functional as the 92-year-old,
they had started up with.
Not a homogeneous group
In any case, the image of the over 65-year-old as a homogeneous and weak group, is already very far from reality.
E.g. after all it is only approximately every fifth in this age
group who receives eldercare, and even among the oldest
elderly most of them lives at home.
From various studies we know that especially the 60-69
year olds - but also the 70-79 year-olds - feel they have a
good grip on life. E.g. it is an absolute minority, complaining of lack of money and the vast majority thinks the future bodes well for themselves.
Kirsten Avlund, professor at the Center for Healthy Ag-
ing at Copenhagen University, estimates that the high satisfaction among the elderly generations in particular has to
do with the fact that with age you become better to chose
and to say no: “The general picture is that the elderly people with good functional capacity are more satisfied than
the younger. One explanation is probably that in growing
older it becomes easier to put things in perspective and to
handle possible concerns. In any case several studies indicates that the older they get the better they are able to
prioritize the elements of their social networks that they
enjoy, which has a major impact on their satisfaction.”
Especially when it comes to the “younger elderly” it is
hard to suggest that they are inactive in relation to the
surrounding community, although they have left their
working life. This applies for example immediate family,
where for example caring for grandchildren are high on
the agenda. According to the so-called Elderly Database
by SFI - The National Centre for Social Research, that is
updated with five-year intervals, more than half of 62- and
67-year-olds have taken care of their grandchildren within
the last month - and approximately one third of the 72 and 77-year-olds.
The increased life expectancy means that the generations that currently withdraws from the labor market
differs from previous generation, as they take part in socalled four-generation families in which there can be both
obligations to parents and grandchildren. According to the
Elderly Database these are one in four of the 57-year-olds
and one in five of the 62-year-olds.
According to a 2007 study especially the younger elderly
are also keeping up when it comes to provide volunteering. About a third of 60-69 year olds participate in various
forms of voluntary work, which is completely in line with
the working generations. But the elderly volunteers work
From the population pyramid to –urn
The Danish population by age group and sex in 1910 and 2010, in 1000
1910
Years
2010
8580-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Years
8580-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Men
Women
250 200 150 100 50
0
50 100 150 200 250
250 200 150 100 50
0
50 100 150 200 250
Figure 2: Over the last 100 years, the age distribution of the Danish population has almost been turned upside down.
Source: DST.
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Mondaymorning
more hours a week. 19 per cent of the 60-69-year-old is
working at least 6 hours per week, although it only applies
to 12-13 per cent of 40-59 year olds.
According to Kirsten Avlund there are already many
examples of, that the younger elderly that are functional
capable place themselves in head of projects of social and
cultural character: “It may be a local cinema, a path system
in a municipality or a high school course. Overall, it has
been very difficult to see the over 65-year-old as a weak
group. Of course there are exceptions but in general it is
also a relatively wealthy group. Therefore it can be difficult
to understand why you at certain age are allowed to have a
lot of discounts.”
The starting point is positive
If the continued aging of society shall remain a resource
– and not a burden - it is obviously a condition that the
positive development of the elderly generations durability
will continue. As Professor Kaare Christensen, Danish Aging Research Center at the University of Southern Denmark, puts it, it is the biological reality that is crucial: “An
increase of retirement age will of course only be useful if
biology dictates that the elderly can remain in the labor
market.”
The positive development in functional ability does not
apply to all rich countries. What exactly is it that makes
one country to the other winners and losers are not known
with certainty. But you could for example imagine, that
this could depend on how countries prioritize their health
in terms of prevention, treatment and rehabilitation. For
the oldest elderly the final element at least plays a large role
in their functioning capabilities.
The starting point is positive. The next elderly generations who have grown up in the postwar period, is generally better educated, have better living conditions and a better lifestyle than previous elderly generations. They have
grown up in an era, where children were vaccinated and
the infectious diseases could be treated with antibiotics,
and they have been at work in a period where the working
environments have improved significantly. Therefore they
are not as worn out as previous generations.
As already is the case today, the functional aging in the
future can be characterized by two contradictory trends:
On one hand, we live longer because our health has improved. On the other hand, we live longer because the
doctors among others are better to treat a range of chronic
diseases such as diabetes.
The last costs, after all, money. And when Kaare Christensen asses future opportunities, he also points to the
risks posed by the growing number of chronic patients:
“If imagining that we in Denmark develop an obesity epidemic in the same magnitude as in the U.S., it will be a
huge challenge.”
A future targeted prevention and rehabilitation will
therefore play a central role, and it will obviously also be
crucial to achieve greater understanding of the risk factors that lead to the development of chronic diseases and
premature loss of functionality. We shall among others
become better at identifying early warning signals, so that
prevention and treatment can be started in time.
According to Kaare Christensen, it is equally important,
whether we can find a sensible balance between the natural consequences of aging and unacceptable impairment:
“Cross generations we must reach a reasonable expectation
level, as the treatment potential is almost infinite.”
A new perspective of life
If you ask the next elderly generation to self assess their
ability to work, it is optimism that is paramount. According
SFI Elderly Database they see themselves as highly suitable
employment. In both 1945 - and the 1950-generation, that
in the response time found themselves on opposite sides
of the 60 years, said some eight out of ten that their work
capability was on or about the same level as when it was at
its highest. See Figure 3.
It is, however, not something that society will benefit
from automatically. The same survey shows, that an even
larger part of the two generations, would prefer to leave the
labor market no later than at the age of 65.
One of the reasons why there is so much reluctance to
raise the retirement age is probably that we have yet not
realized how great a revolution this in reality is.
That the structures of society have not kept pace with the
increase in life expectancy and improvement in the functional ability of the elderly is also seen when for example
comparing the development of retirement age with life expectancy. When Denmark’s first old-age-support-law for
the needy was introduced in 1891, the retirement age was
set at 60 years. It is the same as the current limit for early
retirement. The difference is, that the life expectancy back
then was approximately 50 years, while - as mentioned - it
The ones suitable for labor
1945 - and 1950-generation’s assessment of their
present work capability compared to when it was at its
1
highest, per cent.
Completely or almost on par
Not quite on a par
1 0,8
Not at Level
Do not know
1,3 0,3
14,3
19,4
Pct.
Pct.
78,8
1945-generation
84,8
1950-generation
Figure 3: The future pensioner generations are after their own
assessments extremely labor suitable. More than eight out of ten
believe that their work is on the same level - or almost the same
level - as when it was at its highest.
Note 1: In the original question the interviewees was asked to give a character
from 0-10 for their current work compared with how it was when it was at its
highest. Grade 0 indicated that you were totally incapacitated, and 10 that it
was at its highest. The table grade 0-3 = not at all at level, 4-6 = not quite as
high and 7-10 = very or almost on par.
Source: Ældredatabasen.
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have grown quite considerably since. See Figure 4. If this
development continues at the same speed, every second
Danish girl born in these years could expect to be more
than 100 years old.
According to aging scientists like James Vaupel and Bernard Jeune, this present an opportunity to review previous
notions of how the individual will adjust his/her life: “If
you do not die in the 70s, which has previous been anticipated, there is reason to look very critically at the way
we have arranged our lives today. In the 20s you get an
education and in the 30s you work as a beast to build a
family, have children, buy a house and build a career. That
so much has to be achieved in ten years seems completely
crazy, when you think of the many good years that are actually ahead. Therefore, the issue must be raised, whether
it would not be a better idea to distribute the work over a
longer period of years,” said Bernard Jeune.
Where the political agenda in the 20th century for the
most part dealt with the redistribution of the population’s income, James Vaupel predicts, that the agenda for
the 21th century will be about redistribution of work. The
prerequisite is a showdown with the current notion that
our lives fall into a series of predetermined stages, where
the chronological age, without regard to the biological development define our obligations to society: Whether we
should educate ourselves, work or retire.
According to Vaupel, a more even distribution of education, work and leisure, hold many advantages. E.g. a more
variable number of hours of labor would make it easier for
younger generations to have the number of children they
want. Which - as seen from society’s point of view – would
help to reduce the pace of the current aging.
The age-integrated communities
A group of Danish researchers in 2006 were operating in
the same mindset, as they prepared a report on the aging
community’s opportunities and challenges for the Ministry
of Science and the Strategic Research Council. This declaration called for more attention should strive to develop an
“age-integrated society” in which individuals’ social role
was not determined by chronological age but by his physical and psychological functioning.
Professor Jørn Henrik Petersen, Center for Welfare State
Research at the Southern University of Denmark who was
chairman of the committee - and also a member of the Welfare Commission - stresses that it is not the aging of society
itself, that is the problem: “The difficulty rather lies in, that
the structures of society has not kept up with the biological evolution, and therefore neither is linked economically,
socially or humanely.”
If you want to involve the elderly resources, there is, according to Jørn Henrik Petersen, more low hanging fruit
to pick. It could, for example be that the elderly that are
functional capable undertook a series of tasks in the civilian community, possibly in the form of a sort of civilian
service for early retirees and pensioners. It could include
different forms of volunteering, for example in the elderly
section, where there is prospect of labor shortages in the
coming years.
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Mondaymorning
From 60 years to 60 years
Expected life expectancy for men and women in
conjunction with pension and retirement age, 1900-2000
85
80
Women
75
Men
70
65
Retirement age
60
Early
retirement age
55
50
45
40
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Figure 4: The current retirement age is equivalent to the
pensionable age in the first old-age-support-law from 1891. At
that time the life expectancy was substantially lower than the
retirement age.
Source: Det aldrende samfund 2030 og Velfærdskommissionen.
Another possibility is, that the elderly much more serve as
mentors in the labor market: “It could both facilitate the
entry of immigrants to the labor market and ensure that
the knowledge the elderly possess, is disseminated to the
next generation.”
Both would, according to Jørn Henrik Petersen, help settle the generational conflict that might arise when it really
dawns on the younger generations, how much they have to
perform to fund the existing retirement schemes.
Basically, he has no doubt, that it requires a reform of the
retirement age, if the aging society is to become a benefit for
society. When the current aging of society has not already
put Denmark on the verge of bankruptcy, it is due to the
fact that women have represented a welcome labor reserve,
which has increased state tax revenue. This act can only be
performed once. Therefore, it is obvious to Jørn Henrik Petersen that you must look for another labor force reserve,
and the growing number of functional elderly is the logical
choice: “To increase the workforce is by far the best solution
if we are to create coherence in public finances, because at
the same time we get an increase in taxes while reducing
government spending. What more can one want?”
But in order to seriously exploit the opportunities in the
aging society, it will require far greater changes: “Businesses, organizations, politicians, etc. will for years to come
have to review a wide range of political areas, e.g. health,
employment and education. The actors in the labor market must be aware of the challenges involved in the aging
societies, and the players in the commodity market must
be aware of the potential that exist in the form of elderly,
active consumers,” he says.
Unlocking the age code
Denmark and the majority of other countries face a critical choice: Should the growing group of elderly in the future be viewed upon as a social burden or as a resource.
The prospects of this choice is put under microscope,
when 120 of the world’s leading aging researchers meet in
Copenhagen tomorrow, to the International Congress of
‘Ageing, Longevity and Health’. From the 5th -7th October the University of Copenhagen, with the new research
center, Center for Healthy Aging in front, is hosting a
major international congress on ‘healthy aging’. During
the congress, the latest cutting edge research in aging and
aging processes is presented and discussed. See textbox.
This Congress intensifies the debate about the aging
society. Research shows that the elderly people today are
healthier and more fit than previous generations – and offers ever more precise answers to what the elderly population is able to do, and what they need. See Figure 1.
According to Lene Juel Rasmussen, professor of molecular aging and director of the Center for Healthy Aging
at the Copenhagen University Faculty of Health Sciences,
the findings of the researchers, which will be presented
and discussed the following days, will challenge the negative view on the future aging society.
“Already today, research in aging includes new perspectives that challenge the existing ideas of getting older. The
elderly become more and more healthy, and are able to
do more and more. They will increasingly be seen as a
social resource. That does not mean, that all problems
of demographic projections are resolved. However, our
knowledge can assist in pushing for structural transitions
and provide input into new organizing opportunities for
the aging society. This can open the door to a different
future than we imagine now,“ she says.
New frontier research
How do we get a healthier and a longer life? Precisely this
question is pivotal for aging research, as it attempts to
provide new insights to aging codes, processes and stages
in order to be able to gain greater insight into how tomorrow’s elderly may have a healthier aging process.
Globally aging is a popular and growing research field.
Worldwide billions are invested in research in old age
- from diseases that typically affects the elderly, to the
knowledge of how to slow down the aging process. In
recent years, universities in almost all Western countries
have established special institutes, centers, and research
programs on aging. See textbox.
According to Ralf Hemmingsen, Chancellor of Copenhagen University, it is a direct consequence of the demographic trends:
“Globally the huge generation of future elders are
looked upon with concern. It is potentially a big burden
on society. This has contributed to a growing global interest in aging as a research field. It has become popular to
research in healthy aging: How can you prevent disease,
improve quality of life and create a healthier aging process
of the growing group of the elderly? Research on aging is
now something you care about,” he says.
Lene Juel Rasmussen is experiencing age research as an
increasingly prestigious research field: “Today it belongs
in the category frontier research. It has a good reputation
and is considered relevant. Therefore, it also attracts more
and more of the great scientists. In recent years several
of the leading scientists have changed the angle of their
research. Now they focus on aging and the aging process,
rather than for example a particular illness,” she says.
This research area also attains growing political interest. In
the EU, they are working on establishing a European Centre
for research in ageing, and EU Commissioner for Research,
Large sums of money for aging research
Worldwide large sums of money are invested in ageing
research and in the creation of special aging research
centers:
•
•
•
•
The National Institute on Aging in the U.S. spends
around 6 billion DKK a year.
During the next 5 years 150 million DKK is earmarked to the Center for Healthy Aging
In EU’s research program FP7 from 2007 to 2013
6 billion Euro is set aside for health research - including research on ageing as one of the primary
areas of focus.
The British Government has in 2008-2010 earmarked 485 million Pounds for research in aging.
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Center for Healthy Aging
Center for Healthy Aging was established in 2009 and the
next five years funded by the Nordea Fund with a possible
extension for another five years. The center has both Danish
and international researchers employed. There are currently
assigned more than 25 full-time employees, a number that
are expected to increase to around 100 in only a few years.
The Center conducts research into how people can get a
healthy and active life course – throughout their life - and
how to limit the strain of age-related biological changes
and chronic diseases such as dementia, Alzheimer’s, cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. Concurrently, the Center
research in the elderly and their opportunities and position
from a sociological and societal perspective.
Center for Healthy Aging has three primary areas of focus being, healthy living and aging, biology and disease, including own administration of health. The overall research
themes are: 1) Neurobiology, 2) muscle and connective
tissue, 3) Individual aging of the life cycle perspective, 4)
Health policy and preventive medicine for elder’s, and 5)
Health promotion, dissemination and user driven innovation.
Center for Healthy Aging operate with the aging processes
across disciplines. That is, to put both biomedical, psychological and social factors in play. Thus the Centre includes
anthropologists, sociologists, biologists and physicians as
part of the overall research team.
Science and Innovation, Irishman Máire Geoghegan-Quinn
recently said, that aging research is an area of “great social,
political and economic importance for the EU”.
Danish politicians have reached the same realization:
“We have to rethink aging, if we are to solve the massive demographic problems we currently face. We have
to create new knowledge, new solutions and renew our
thoughts in order for us to look at aging in a new perspective. That is why aging research is high on our priority list,
both today and tomorrow,” says the Danish Minister of
Health Bertel Haarder.
Live strong – die healthy
Research in aging can according to Ralf Hemmingsen
provide an invaluable contribution in understanding the
demographic challenges.
“More research and knowledge of how to achieve a
healthy aging can in the long term be expected to save
the government costs in eldercare. Knowledge about aging and the aging processes may open the door to an improvement of individual aging with increased life quality,
better health and more resources“, he says.
The aging experts, which Monday Morning have spoken
with, agree, that the challenge is not the aging population
itself. The challenge is rather keeping the elderly healthy
and to convert the community to utilize their resources.
There is thus an important societal value in knowledge on
how to affect the aging process positively, and an educated
guess at the future model for the aging society.
“Society would benefit greatly from new knowledge
about healthy aging. This is where new research can
contribute. It may partly provide knowledge on how individuals live strong and die healthy and partly on how
authorities should take on the demographic challenge to
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Mondaymorning
Center for Healthy Aging is involved in international research, Ageing, Longevity, and Health. The research project
is part of the international research network IARU, International Alliance of Research Universities where the University will participate with Yale, Oxford, Cambridge, Berkeley
and five other universities from the West and Southeast
Asia. Together with Peking University, the University of Copenhagen is coordinator of research on ageing and health.
Through the international work of research, the center are
in contact with leading international research and have access to valuable, global research data. Center for Healthy
Aging also cooperates with the U.S. National Institutes of
Health (NIH).
This week, the center host the international congress,
”Ageing, Longevity, and Health”. At the Congress the new
international achievements in a number of research areas
will presented:
• The biology behind the aging process
• Cognitive changes in aging - the way we think
• Avoidance and prevention in relation to age-related diseases
like diabetes and Alzheimer’s
• Promotion on health and views on aging
• Health policy - the use of medicine, nursing and therapies
pursue healthy aging. It may be crucial in the process towards a sustainable model for the future older society,“
says Bertel Haarder.
According to Bertel Haarder research in aging can help
solve two of society’s biggest future economic challenges:
MORE RESOURCES:
• A healthier old age will allow the elderly people to
live a richer life and contribute to society for a longer period than today. It could pave the way for new
standards in the labor market, which eliminate the
shrinking workforce, reducing skill shortages and
strengthen productivity. The government has calculated, that the already enacted increase in the early
retirement pension age will improve public finances
by 4 per cent of the GDP in the long term, and increase labor supply significantly. See Figure 2.
LESS COST BURDEN
• Welfare expenditure for the elderly people is today a
large part of public budgets and the ratio rises steadily every year. A healthier aging and an increase in
knowledge about age-related diseases could reduce
the need for treatment and care. It will limit the expected increase in spending on the elderly. Already
today we see the effect of this. The Ministry of Finance and the economic advisors presented in September this year, a significant readjustment of their
estimates of future growth in health spending - and
the reason was healthy aging.
Lene Juel Rasmussen however points out, that the benefits
will not just appear out of thin air: “Today we have lots of
elderly people, who do not ‘cost’ society extra and will be
The elderly becomes more and more healthy
Illustrates great physical mobility amongst
60-year-olds or older, per cent
1987
1994
52,5
55,6
2000
44,5
64,3
2005
100
47,5
35,7
68,3
31,7
Illustrates hard/medium hard physical activity in leisure
time, per cent
1987
1994
2000
2005
16-24
years
25-44
years
45-66
years
1987
1994
2000
2005
67+
years
Figure 1: The elderly becomes more active and more mobile
Source: Statens Institut for Folkesundhed og
http://susy2.si-folkesundhed.dk/susy.aspx.
able to contribute for many years. But it requires that we
become far better to ‘look’ at the elderly - that we recognize that aging does not mean maturity of the individual
and for society in general. Only with that basis, we will
find the right models for how we as a society, can take
advantage of the resources of the elderly.
Denmark as a pioneer
Denmark has unique possibilities of taking global leadership in the efforts to identify, develop and implement solutions of the challenges, that the aging society confronts
us with. We already have a massive research effort in
healthy aging and three universities have centers specifically dedicated to aging research. According to Lene Juel
Rasmussen, Denmark is internationally well positioned
in many of the key research areas:
“Denmark is not a leader in all aspects of aging research
– which is impossible due to our small size. But we are
at the forefront and placed positively in the international
arena within several disciplines,” she underlines.
In particular, Denmark is in front on the approach to
aging research. With Center for Healthy Aging, Copen-
hagen University has created an entirely new inter-disciplinary line in the ageing research.
“We cover the whole spectrum from cell-level to society-level. It is based on the belief that the solution is
not found only by looking at biological and psychological
aging processes. New knowledge is obtained by combining different approaches. We are among the first, to work
with this approach and it is slowly gaining ground in aging research on a global level,” says Lene Juel Rasmussen.
With this week’s congress, the Danish research environment marks, that research on aging is an important
and prioritized area for action during the years to come
and that Denmark intends to play a key role.
“As host of the congress, we have great opportunity to
make our research visible on the international scene. It
should in the long term help to create a strong internationally based research environment which will attract
scientists and students from around the world will come
to Denmark,” Ralf Hemmingsen points out.
He believes that the congress is a unique opportunity
to strengthen international research network and lay the
foundation for a global alliance on aging research:
“The congress opens the door for an international exchange of knowledge with the world’s leading researchers. It can lay the groundwork for a more coordinated
effort in research on aging,” he says.
The pressure facilitates
Change in government finances from 2015 with and
without the welfare agreement, percent of GDP
2
0
With welfare agreement
-2
Without welfare agreement
-4
-6
2015
2060
Hours worked per. capita with and without Welfare
Agreement, hours per years
820
800
With welfare agreement
780
760
740
Without welfare agreement
720
700
680
2000
2060
Figure 2: The government's retirement reform from 2005
illustrate how important it is for both labor and Denmark’s GDP
that the elderly prolong their work period.
Source: Danish Ministry of Finance.
alderbedst
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