Sept., 2010
Journal of Resources and Ecology
J. Resour. Ecol. 2010 1(3) 253-258
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-764x.2010.03.009
www.jorae.cn
Vol.1, No.3
Water topic
Integrated Water Resources Carrying Capacity in
Tongzhou District, Beijing City
ZHANG Yongyong*，XIA Jun and WANG Zhonggen
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing
100101, China
Abstract: Tongzhou District has been put forward as the new developing centre of Beijing City. But the
serious water deficiency and pollution restricted the local sustainable development. In this paper, an
integrated water resource carrying capacity (IWRCC) model was developed under the sustainable
development principle and the “natural- social” water cycle to quantify IWRCC of Tongzhou District. Three
scenarios were designed to increase IWRCC and results showed that there was a great gap between
IWRCC and the development plan in Tongzhou District. Water shortage restricted urbanization and
sustainability seriously and transferring water from other regions besides promoting water saving and
controlling pollution in the region would be the most feasible solution for Tongzhou District to mitigate the
water shortage stress.
Key words: integrated water resource carrying capacity (IWRCC); gray association analysis; sustainability;
Tongzhou District
1 Introduction
Water shortage is one of the major factors restraining
social economy development in many areas in China,
especially in the urbanizing areas. With the rapid
economic increase, urban area expanded rapidly since
1980s in China. By the end of 2005, the urbanized level
has reached 43%, and it will be over 50% in 2020 (Wang
et al. 2006). But the Ministry of Water Resources P. R.
China’ s statistical data demonstrated that, in 669 cities
these are 400 cities lack of water, 110 of which are lack of
water seriously at present.
The concept of carrying capacity comes from ecology
(Park et al. 1921). Since 1980s, WRCC has become a hot
topic in China. Two different standpoints have been
developed, i.e., one focuses on the degree that the water
resources
can
carry
the
soc-economy
and
eco-environment (Gao et al. 2006; Fu et al. 1999; Hui et
al. 2001; Cheng 2002; Xia et al. 2004). The degree was
usually a non-dimensional quantity, which could be
obtained by contrasting the complete indices that affect
WRCC with the basic criterion of carrying capacity. The
other puts more emphasis on the soc-economic scale that
the water resources can carry (e.g. Shi et al. 1992;
Kessler 1994; Xia et al. 2002; Wang et al. 2003; del
Monte-Luna et al. 2004). The scale was usually obtained
by analyzing the harmonious development of society,
economy, ecology and environment, and distributing the
production-living-ecological water rationally. Although
the comprehension of WRCC is different, the ultimate
goals are to guide the water resources allocation of the
region, and solve the balance of water supply and demand
and sustainable development of social economy. In this
paper, the water resources carrying capacity prefers to the
second definition.
Beijing is a serious water shortage area. Currently, the
per capita water resource is less than 300 m3, which is
lower than the international safety line, i.e. 1000 m3 (Xu
2000). The contradictory between water supply and
demand is extremely incisive. Groundwater was overdraft
and polluted seriously. The eco-environment is in poor
condition. Along with the rapid development, what’s the
IWRCC in Beijing? It is urgent to be answered for policy
makers and water resources managers. In this paper, the
objectives are: (i) to develop an IWRCC model for
urbanizing areas; (ii) to quantify the current IWRCC for
typical District of Beijing and provide some
countermeasures; and (iii) to supply the significant
Received: 2010-08-26 Accepted: 2010-09-13
Foundation: the Knowledge Innovation Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Kzcx2-yw-126).
* Corresponding author: ZHANG Yongyong. E-mail: [email protected].
254
consultations for some important events happened in
Beijing during“the 12th Five-Year Plan”(2010 – 2015),
such as the constitution of Beijing city development plan,
the implement of agricultural water-saving strategy in the
suburb, and so on.
2 The study area
Tongzhou District (39°36'–40°02' N, 116°32'–116°56' E)
is one satellite town of Beijing, located in the southeast of
Beijing (Fig.1). The total area is 907 km2. There are 13
rivers in the district, which belong to the canal water
system and the Chaobai River water systems, respectively.
This district is the warm temperate zone, the average
annual air temperature is 11.7℃, the annual mean relative
humidity is 56.8% . The annual mean precipitation is
591mm and the evaporation is 1164mm. The precipitation
changes obviously every year and mainly in July to Sept,
normally, which accounts for 83% of the annual
precipitation.
Up to 2004, the total population of Tongzhou District
was 620 000, the urbanization level has reached 41%, and
agricultural areas were 36671 hectare. The gross value of
agricultural output and industrial output were $396
million and $2578 million respectively, the gross
domestic product (GDP) was $1569 million. The sewage
treatment rate was 58%. The current industrial structure is
10:48:42 (primary industry: secondary industry: tertiary
industry).
In the district, most of the surface water is the reusable
water discharged from Beijing and the rivers were
polluted seriously. The groundwater was overdraft
severely. By 2004, it has fallen to 7.61m from 2.80m at
the end of 1980, and serious overdraft area occupies 29%
of the entire area.
Currently, Tongzhou District is put forward as the new
developing centre of Beijing City.“Two axes, two belts,
Fig.1 Location of Tongzhou District in Beijing City.
Journal of Resources and Ecology Vol.1 No.3, 2010
multi-centers”the new development pattern will impel
the suburb’ s urbanization process, and accelerate the
social economy development of the suburb. The water
resource deficiency, water pollution and groundwater
overdraft restricted the sustainable development of this
district, and made the contradiction more prominent
between supply and demand of water resources. Thus the
IWRCC of Tongzhou District was expected to answer
urgently which would be helpful to establish the scientific
development plan and direct the development of
Tongzhou District, as well as Beijing City.
3 IWRCC model of Tongzhou District
IWRCC of Tongzhou District was considered as the
greatest scale of social economy that total water resources
of Tongzhou District could support during urbanization
expediting, under the sustainable development principle,
on the premise of maintaining ecological and
environmental benign development, depending on
temporal technology and economy level of development.
The IWRCC model was introduced in detail in Xia et al.
(2006) and the maximal population was selected as the
bjective function (Zuo et al. 2005). The resolution
process of this model was shown in Fig. 2.
4 Results
4.1 The total water resource quantity of Tongzhou
District
Tongzhou’ s available water resources include runoff,
reusable water and groundwater. The annual mean runoff
is about 73 million m3, and the exploitation rate is only
about 4% . The reusable water exploitation rate is only
about 6% , and is about 50 million m3. Groundwater
resources are about 213 million m3. To sum up, the annual
mean available water resources is 267 million m3.
4.2 The synthetic analysis index system
The development of soc-economy S(T), water resources W
(T) and eco-environment E(T) are assessed by the index
system. The standard is divided to five levels (Table 1).
For example, the world water resources research institute
proposes that there are four grades for the average per
person water resources quantity. <1000 m3 means serious
lack of water; 1000–5000 m3, means lack of water; 5000–
10 000 m3, means no lack of water; > 10 000 m3 means
abundance of water. In the world, there is another
standard which fixes 1700 m3 as the warning line of the
annual average water resources per person (Xu 2000).
According to the standard above, the average water
resources per person in Tongzhou District is that: 10 000
ZHANG Yongyong, et al.: Integrated Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tongzhou District, Beijing City
255
Fig. 2 The resolution process diagram of IWRCC model in Tongzhou District.
m3 is suggested as level I; 5000 m3 as level II; 1700 m3 as
level III; 1000 m3 as level IV and 500 m3 as level V.
4.3 IWRCC in different development scenarios
In this research, the base year, the short-term and
long-term of development period of Tongzhou District
were set as 2005, 2010 and 2020, respectively.
Considering it is no water input in the near future, three
scenarios have been drawn based on the current water
resources.
Scenario one: The water ration is the same as 2005
without regard to saving water.
Scenario two: Reducing water ration of production and
increasing the sewage treatment rate. Referring to the
water ration of developed countries, there are some
potentialities only in water saving irrigation currently.
Supposing: in 2010, water ration of industrial output
holds the line viz. 7800 m3 million dollar-1, and water
ration of agricultural irrigation falls to 3765 m3 ha – 1, the
sewage treatment rate achieves 90% ; In 2020, water
ration of industrial output falls to 4680m3 million dollar – 1,
water ration of agricultural irrigation falls to 3300m3 ha – 1,
water saving agriculture comes into reality in the entire
district, and the sewage treatment rate achieves 100%.
Scenario three: Raising the urbanization level and
promoting the industrial structure. According to “The
Eleventh Five-Year Plan”(2006 – 2010), the industrial
structures will be 7:42:51, and the urbanization level will
be 70%. In 2010, the proportion will be 4:37:59, and the
urbanization level will be 80%.
All the parameters needed in typical years are shown in
Table 2, and IWRCC of Tongzhou District in 2005, 2010
and 2020 are gotten by the model (Table 3).
5 Discussion
5.1 The development of society economy, water
resource and ecological environment
By forecasting, up to 2020, the population will be nearly
twice larger than 2005s and GDP in the District will reach
12.8 billion dollars. S(T) increases from 0.62 to 0.80. It
shows that the soc-economy development of Tongzhou
District will be in a high speed development phase and
the social economy will increase on a large scale during
2010–2020.
The rapid development of soc-economy results in
water shortage, water pollution and the continuous
decline of groundwater table in Tongzhou District
unavoidably. Water demand including water consumption
256
Journal of Resources and Ecology Vol.1 No.3, 2010
Table1 The index system and grades for development quality evaluation of“social economy- water resourceseco-environment”in Tongzhou District.
Subsystem
Index
Water resources
Water resources quantity per person1)
Water resources quantity per hectare2)
Water resources carrying degree
Soc-economy
Average GDP per person3)
Average GDP per cubic meter
Cultivated area per person
Pollutant quantity per GDP
Urbanization level
Sewage treatment rate4)
Eco-environment COD concentration5)
Forest and grass cover
Groundwater exploitation rate
Unit
Ⅰ(1)
Ⅱ(0.8)
Ⅲ(0.6)
Ⅳ(0.4)
Ⅴ(0.2)
m3 person–1
m3 ha–1
–
dollar person–1
dollar m–3
ha person–1
t dollar–1
%
%
mg L–1
%
–
10 000
39 825
0.8
4487
15.4
0.10
0.008
60
85
20
30
0.80
5000
30 000
0.9
2692
12.8
0.083
0.031
50
70
30
25
0.90
1700
1770
1.0
897
7.7
0.067
0.047
40
60
40
20
1.00
1000
26 550
1.1
513
5.1
0.05
0.078
30
50
50
15
1.10
500
3765
1.2
128
1.3
0.033
0.234
15
40
60
10
1.20
Note:1) referring to Xu (2000);
2) according to agricultural area per person in the world and in the Haihe River Basin;
3) referring to Xia et al. (2004);
4) according to“Beijing mayor government work report”in 2005.
http://www.gov.cn/test/2006-02/10/content_184682.htm;
5) according to“Environmental Quality Standard for Surface Water”(GB3838-2002).
Table 2 Values for different parameters in typical years.
Typical years
2005
2010
Exploitation rate of runoff α1 (%)
Exploitation rate of inflow α2 (%)
Exploitation rate of groundwater α3 (%)
Population growth rate Kpop (‰) **
6.4
Rate of total industrial growth Kindustry (%) **
13
2020
4
6
100
5.0
10
Water ration of industrial output ρindustry (m3 million dollar-1)
Water ration of irrigation ρagriculture (m3 ha–1)
Water ration of urban life ρurbanlife (L capita–1)
Water ration of rural life ρrurallife (L capita–1)
Pollutant’s degradation coefficient k
Consumption coefficient of industry χindustry
Consumption coefficient of agriculture χagriculture
Consumption coefficient of urban life χurban
Consumption coefficient of rural life χrural
Sewage treatment ratio β (%)
Specific yield in the region μ
Exploitation goal rate of groundwater resources α3goal (%)
The critical concentration Cgoal（CODCr mg L–1）
7800
4275
320
120
58
7800
3765*
360*
148*
0.30
0.20
0.23
0.20
1.00
90**
0.074
90
40
4680*
3300***
380*
150*
100**
Note: * from the Middle Line of South-to-North Water Transfer Project;
** from“The Eleventh Five-Year Plan”in Tongzhou District;
*** ration of Water Saving Irrigation in Tongzhou District.
of production, living and eco-environment restoration is
far larger than water supply. The water resources
condition is always overloaded. The water resources
carrying degree (I) is larger than 1.0 every year, and W(T)
is only 0.25 in 2005, and will drop to 0.18 in 2020.
Because of all the serious eco-environment problems
mentioned above, the eco-environment development
quality E(T) will be low, only 0.23 in 2005. Furthermore,
all of E(T) are less than 0.6 by far. That is to say, the
eco-environment is very fragile and the social economy
257
ZHANG Yongyong, et al.: Integrated Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tongzhou District, Beijing City
Table 3 The IWRCC in different scenarios in Tongzhou District.
Carrying capacity
Scenario
Scenario one
Typical year
2005
2010
2020
2005
2010
2020
2005
2010
2020
Scenario two
Scenario three
Population
350 000
510 000
630 000
350 000
620 000
790 000
350 000
630 000
690 000
GDP (billion dollar)
1.0
2.2
6.8
1.0
2.7
8.5
1.0
2.7
9.6
development in Tongzhou District will sacrifice the
ecological water use. In order to restore the water
eco-environment, the water requirements will account for
a high percentage of water demand during the Eleventh
Five-Year Plan. In 2005, the ecological water use is
nearly 260 million m3.
In conclusion, DD(T) keeps in an extremely low level,
which is only 0.33 in 2005, 0.35 in 2010, and 0.39 in
2020. Obviously, the development of Tongzhou District is
not harmonious. The soc-economy development keeps in
a high speed while the eco-environment development and
the water resources condition are very week (Table 4).
5.2 WRCC in different development scenarios
In Table 3, the first scenario is the baseline of the IWRCC
in the future. In the near future, there is a large gap
between IWRCC and the plan. Water shortage has
become a bottleneck restricting social economy
development,
urbanization
process
and
the
eco-environment protection in Tongzhou District.
The second scenario searches into the influence of
saving water and increasing the sewage treatment rate
upon IWRCC, and the third scenario considers the
influence of urbanization process and the industrial
structure adjustment upon IWRCC.
Comparing the IWRCC in different scenarios, the
implement of water saving strategy (scenario two),
Table 4“The Eleventh Five-Year Plan”in Tongzhou
District.
GDP
Typical
(billion
year
Population dollar)
2005
2010*
2020*
660 000
900 000
1 190 000
1.9
3.9
12.8
I
W(T)
S(T)
E(T)
DD(T)
2.1
1.8
1.5
0.25
0.22
0.18
0.62
0.79
0.80
0.23
0.26
0.42
0.33
0.35
0.39
Note: * from“The Eleventh Five-Year Plan”in Tongzhou District.
W(T)
0.48
0.47
0.46
0.48
0.46
0.37
0.48
0.46
0.40
S(T)
0.55
0.72
0.81
0.61
0.94
0.98
0.61
0.94
0.98
E(T)
0.62
0.65
0.75
0.63
0.67
0.80
0.63
0.67
0.79
DD(T)
0.55
0.61
0.65
0.57
0.66
0.66
0.57
0.66
0.68
adjusting the urbanization level, the industrial structure
and enhancing the sewage treatment rate (scenario three),
can both relieve the water crisis and raise IWRCC to a
certain extent. Relatively speaking, the increased scale of
WRCC in scenario three is higher and the sustainable
development degree is superior. In other words, the
influence of urbanization process is more remarkable to
IWRCC in Tongzhou District.
Both of the IWRCC in scenario two and three cannot
reach the plan either. To solve water resources shortage
and realize the sustainable development, it is crying for
seeking new water sources or transferring water from
other regions besides water saving, controlling pollution
in the district.
Acknowledgements
This study was supported by The Knowledge Innovation Key
Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Kzcx2-yw-126).
Thanks to Prof. ZUO Qiting from Zhengzhou University for his
valuable comments and suggestions which significantly improve
the quality of the paper.
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北京市通州区水资源综合承载力
张永勇，
夏 军，
王中根
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室，
北京 100101
摘要：目前，通州区已被定为北京市的新的发展中心，但水资源短缺和污染已经严重限制了当地的可持续发展。本文以可持续发
展为原则，基于“自然—社会”水循环，提出了通州区水资源综合承载力量化模型。根据通州区的未来发展规划，设计了 3 种情景来提
高该地区的水资源综合承载力。研究表明水资源短缺严重制约了通州区的城市化进程和可持续发展，外调水、本地区节水和控制污
染是解决通州区水资源短缺的有效途径。
关键词：水资源综合承载力；
灰关联分析；
可持续发展；通州区