AET – October 2004 – session 7 – Air services Do high-speed trains really promote airports? Arnaud CHI, Laboratoire d’Economie des Transports, Lyon, France High-speed train stations in airports? Twenty years ago, this question would be rapidly cut short, for the simple reason that trains were associated as opponents of aeroplanes. The development of a high-speed link was originally associated with the decline of air traffic between the two cities. In 1982, Air France was forced to reduce drastically the number of its flights between Paris and Lyon as the TGV joined the two cities in two hours. At the time, there was no interconnection and the competition was total. The rapidity of aeroplanes was opposed to a better local accessibility of the railway system. Consequently, for a long time, intermodality between air and rail was restricted to local accessibility’s issues. From the end of the 50s till the 70s, the rail interconnection has taken place in local networks. Brussels (1955) and Gatwitck (1958) were the first European airports to have a local rail interconnection. Berlin and Frankfurt airports (1972) have been connected to S-Bahn network. In 1976, Roissy airport has been connected to the RER network in France. In 1977, Heathrow airport was connected to the tube. In the 80s, the movement of infrastructures' interconnection get on extra-regional networks. Amsterdam Shipol, Frankfurt and Zurich airports were crossed over by national trains. But in fact, it is only in the 90s, with the coming out in 1994 of the TGV stations of Roissy Charles de Gaulle and Lyon Satolas in France, that the compatibility with the high-speed network has became a reality. Thus, the last decade has been marked by an increase of infrastructure investments to promote air / rail intermodality. Germany has recently opened ICE stations in Düsseldorf (2001), Frankfurt and Cologne (2002) airports. In the future, Amsterdam will be crossed by Thalys services (2006) and many projects of interconnection with high-speed lines are in study for the main European platforms. Orly in Paris or Brussels have planned an interconnection with high-speed lines for the next years and Milan planned a high-speed branch route to connect Malpensa airport (LOPEZ PITA, 2003). If twenty years ago, relations between the air and the rail system were only regarded through competition, it is no longer the case today. With interconnection projects, airports are investing greatly to develop the rail system. Beyond the competition, airports have taken into consideration the advantages of high-speed train to develop new travel solutions. More over, with the increase of international traffics, the competition becomes more and more severe between the main European plate-forms to keep and to develop their hub. Do high-speed trains really promote airports? If the advantages of high-speed trains are easy to hand over, it is actually more difficult to assert that interconnected airports are comparatively more competitive than non-interconnected ones. The paper tries to give an overview of the question 10 years after the first interconnections between airports and highspeed trains observed in France. 1 1. The interconnection issue At first, it may be important to go back to the basics of the relationship between high-speed trains and aeroplanes. From competition to intermodality, this paper tries to make an overview of the interconnection issue. It begins with some definitions [1.1.]. Part [1.2.] replaces the interconnection issue in the economic background of air and rail transport systems. For conclusion of this first part, the paper will expose the theoretical potential advantages of infrastructures interconnection for all actors [1.3.]. In final, two main advantages are considered for airports. The first deals with the potential gain of traffic and the second deals with the potential gain of time slot capacities. 1.1. Some definitions Before setting out if interconnection with high-speed trains really promote airports, it is necessary to define the different words used in the paper. ¾ Competition According the basic economic theory, there is a competition between two transport systems when they can be substituted each other. The two systems can thus satisfy the same need. The consumer has the choice between two solutions to travel from a point A to a point B. Competition supposes the existence of a rail service between two cities as well as an airline offering a service. Price and time travel are also recognised as keys to explain the consumer’s choice. ¾ Complementarity In the other hand, two modes of transport are complementary when they are used successively for a trip. Thus, the two solutions do not satisfy the same need. This definition of complementarity covers two different dimensions: - When the successive consumption of the two modes is necessary to satisfy the need of the user. The two modes do not satisfy the same need, and the need of travel of the consumer cannot be satisfy by one of the mode alone. It is the case for airplanes with local bus or rail network, or when there are no airlines for a destination covered only by train. The complementarity between the two modes is also obvious, the complementarity exist when the competition do not exist. - When the competition does exist, the complementarity can also be expected for the two modes. In an international flight, the user can have the choice between a single flight, a combination of two flights with a hub transfer or a successive utilisation of a train and a long-haul plane. The two modes will thus be regarded as complementary when their successive utilisation is preferred to the utilisation of a single mode (witch is still possible). 2 ¾ Interconnection In theory, even if where is no interconnection of infrastructures, a consumer can use successively the train and the plane, by using local transport link between the city center (the rail station) and the airport. In practice, if the use of the single air mode is possible, the user will prefer a trip by plane, even if where is a transfer by hub. Interconnection is the condition for a successive utilisation of two transport modes in a situation where the competition exists. It covers technical dimension, as the distance between the two nodes of transport. Interconnection of infrastructures means that terminals are close to the train station. ¾ Intermodality and integrated system Intermodality covers all the projects to encourage the complementarity between the two transport modes. Beyond the interconnection of infrastructure, it deals with the price issue, the timetables compatibility, the services on board, the information, the codes share, … The system is regarded as integrated when the two transport modes propose a common solution combining the two systems. Each transport system is aware of the good proceeding of the travel on the other mode and there is a common response for the price issue or in terms of information. The user can consult both the two networks to buy the same integrated transport service. 1.2. A background in favour of infrastructures interconnection At first sight, the situations of air transport and rail transport in Europe seem to be in favour of a development of air / rail intermodality. ¾ Air traffic growth and congestion in airports In the last few decades, European countries have to face up to a continual increase in long distance travel mobility. Even if recent events have corroborated the sensibility of the air travel activity to the international economic background, the trend is still a continual increase of demand and distance travel. In the last decade (from 1990 to 2000, source ITA), the world traffic as increased by: - +41% in terms of passengers (from 1.165 billions in 1990 to 1.647 billions in 2000) - +59% in terms of PKT (from 1,894 billions to 3,017 billions) After the 11th September in 2001, the air traffic has get down to a depressed situation, with a decrease of 2% passengers from 2000 to 2001 and a decrease of 0,5% in 2002. Analyses of 2003’s figures show a stationary situation. Despite Gulf War II and the SARS have delayed the traffic growth return, main forecasts maintain the same increase for the next decade than the increase observed from 1990 to 2000. The first six months of 2004 confirm that we are in same trends of increase. IATA indicates that in comparison with the first six months of 2003 the international traffic has increased of 20,4% in terms of passenger, and planned an increase 3 of two numbers for the year. The number of people travelling by air can exceed 2.3 billion by 2010 (AEA, yearbook 2003, .III.3.). In fact, the traffic growth of passengers has only accentuated the already grave congestion problem on main airports due to the high concentration of the system. The organisation of the air transport network in hub configurations has increased the needs of capacity of the main platforms as a result of the concentration in time and in space of flights. The 10 largest airports in EU handle the majority of the long-haul traffic. Hubs are thus the critical nodes of the system. In addition to this situation of high concentration, an undeniable rigidity has to be taken in consideration. Airports in the same area cannot be easily substituted for each other. Each major has a principal hub located and the place for new entrants, so new platforms, is actually very limited. The traffic growth has to be considered in a limited airspace. The increase of long distance traffics has creating a demand for new long-haul routes. Or, in Europe, the largest airports are congested or on the way to being so soon. ¾ The difficulties for capacity increase If the capacity of planes can support the increase of passengers, the main European platforms will at least have to find solutions to increase the number of flights. Nowadays, every one is aware of the environmental and urban constraints that make it very difficult for major airports to build news runways and to supply all the terminal space and facilities that aeroplanes need. In addition to it, the capacity of road and rail services to and from airports has to be taken into consideration. Even if airports are in the situation of important land reservation, they have to face up important local oppositions. Roissy Charles de Gaulle in France has for instance air traffic restrictions of 55 millions passengers while ORLY has a restriction of the numbers of flights. For technical solutions, everyone is aware that we are maybe next too the limits. Beyond what has already been accomplished, the marginal capacity increase of new solutions of control may be minor. For runways, we are close to the limit determined by the safety intervals required as a result of turbulence of aeroplanes. Technological changes in aeroplanes (new capacities with airbus A 300 for instance) or air control may also generate new capacities in air but are not real solutions for terminal and runaway’s congestion. ¾ The development of the high speed rail network The background of rail transport is different. Interconnection with airports or not, the high speed rail network is spreading out rapidly. In 2002, 3 260 km of high-speed lines were opened to commercial services in Europe. In 2010, the total length of the European highspeed network will exceed 7,500 km (PITA, 2003). The development of the “Trans-European Network” will also create great opportunities of infrastructure interconnection for airports. Of course, the air transport may have a better life if high-speed rail technology wasn’t developed. But, as the network does exist, airport authorities are aware of the advantages of high-speed train accessibility to enlarge their potential market and to propose more routes. National authorities and major companies are also aware of the potential advantage of high- 4 speed train services to feed their international hub. A report for french government (FAVENNEC, 2003, p.69) highlight the potential role of high-speed train to support the previous increase of air traffic of the Parisian platform. This report estimates that the modal split from airplanes to high-speed trains can be from 15 to 20 millions of air passengers in departure, arrival or transit in Paris. ¾ An economic and environmental issue National authorities may profit of the high-speed network expansion to promote the passenger split from domestic flights to trains. As a result of European liberalisation, each major can now transport passengers from anywhere in Europe to feed its’ hub for a long-haul international flight. Where is thus a competition between the different hub, moreover between the different countries, to maintain their position, in regard with the important economic impacts of air traffic on the airport area. The figures of AEA assert easily this important economic issue for national and local authorities. “The thirty members airlines of the AEA alone employed more 358,000 employees. It is estimated that every airline job generates between 4 and 10 airports jobs, as well as 3 in the neighbourhood of the airport” (AEA, Yearbook 2003, p.III-3). More common rates estimated at 3 to 10 the numbers of jobs locally generated by each million of passengers in an airport. In Roissy Charles de Gaulle, the air transport activity generates more than 60,000 jobs in the platform, and three times more in the hinterland of the airport for activities not directly rely to air transport. The environmental issue has to be taken into consideration too. The train mode is considered as more ecological than planes. High-speed trains on upgraded lines may consume from twice to five times less than a plane. Figure 1, source ITA, 1991, p.83. 5 Despite technological changes can reduce the energy consumption of the air transport activity, the split of passenger from planes to trains have positive effects on the environmental issue. In this background, each actor can also expect benefits of a better complementarity between the two transport systems. 1.3. The basics : competition on point to point and in hub access The trend of infrastructures’ interconnection is thus powerful, according to the different projects in European airports and rail network development. In the future, high-speed trains will transport more and more consumers for airports and air companies. The possibilities of co-operation and substitution between trains and aeroplanes will be increasingly. Does it mean then that the interconnection of infrastructures has definitely put an end to competition? The response to this question is certainly negative. Despite the induction of the travel market due to a better accessibility of the air transport network, the competition does still exist and will have rising consequences on the traffic distribution. As trains carried more and more air travellers, it means also that the volume of air traffics is reduced in the other hand. This is particularly true for the national air traffic market, where the modal split is largely in favour to train solutions when the travel time do not exceed three hours. For this level of time travel, the rapidity advantage of aeroplanes is reduced by the rigidity of the air travel production process. A trip by train is such easier in its process than a trip by plane. Actually, a trip by plane requires many operations, principally for safety reasons. The time travel includes a time on air and a time on “ground”. Passengers have to arrive from 1 to 2 hours prior departure and complete the different check-in and safety modality. This delay can be theoretically reduced to 45 minutes for domestic flights. Despite many solution are developed to reduce this time on ground (e-check or self-service check-in), this delay before departure will still an important part of the travel time for domestic trips. In addition to it, the time travel may include the connection time between airports and cities’ center, both at departure and arrival. With nodes located in cities’ center, the railway system may be more efficient in reducing accessibility times. In last but not least, the analysis of the different times may take into consideration the instability of flights’ timetables. The world’s context has important impacts both on the air travel demand and the punctuality performance of the air transport system. Within Europe1, 19.9% of departure delayed more than 15 minutes in 2002. From 1999 to 2001, more than one flight on four was delayed, due to the different world crisis (30.4% in 1999, 24.2. in 2001). Even if the past few years have seen a reduction of this rate, we are still far from the levels around 13% recently observed in the period1993-1994. In a time / price competition with the high speed trains, this parameter may be important as the rate of long distance trains delayed more than 14 minutes varies from 4 to 8 % (6.3% in 2002 and 6.8% in 2003 in France2) with higher frequencies. 1 2 Source AEA, yearbook 2000-2003 Source SNCF, Memo-stat 2003. 6 An analysis with a time / price approach achieved by ITA on a sample of 1543 European routes in 1991 has defined the respective potential markets of airplanes and high-speed trains (next figure). The distance of 1000 kilometres represents nearly the distance limit covered by a high-speed train in three hours travel. train zone of price/time competition The train is faster than the airplane 0 250 The airplane is at least twice as fast as the train Modal split in favour of the train Modal split in favour of the airplane 600 airplane The airplane is on average three times as fast as the train 1000 1500 Orthodromic distance (km) Figure 2 : the market share, source ITA, 1991, p.39 Thus, in a point to point market, the development of the high speed network will undoubtedly be in favour of a modal split of passengers from plane to train services for short-haul and continental distances. In France, the construction of the new TGV line between Paris and Marseille put the two cities’ center in three hours travel in 2002. More over, this new line has allowed the creation of train services between Marseille city center and Roissy Charles de Gaulle airport in less than four hours time travel. A years after the beginning of the high speed train line, the figure of air traffic between Paris and the south-east of France shows an important loss of consumers (-30% on Paris-Marseille, -59% on Paris-Nîmes). But, moreover than the competition on domestic point to point travel demand, interconnection has bring the competition between aeroplanes and high-speed trains on the market of hub access for long distance travels. Before interconnection, these customers were constrained to take a short-haul flight and reach an international airport to make their correspondence. Now, with interconnection, they have the choice between a travel combining two aeroplanes or a travel combining a high-speed train to reach a hub, and take an international long-haul flight in departure of this hub. The interconnection of airports with the high-speed train network may thus promote the railways system in the national traffic split. In terms of numbers of passengers, an interconnection may have finally more negative impacts for the air transport system than the potential induction due to better long distance accessibility. In these conditions, what are the reasons for the different actors of the air transport system to promote interconnection projects as the success of these projects may reduce the numbers of air transport travellers? It is a non-sense for airports to be aware of having the most possible high-speed trains although where will be a loss of passenger traffic on their domestic flights? 3 61 international routes, 49 domestic routes in France, 44 domestic routes in Germany. 7 The paper will try in the next part to make an overview of the different advantages that an interconnected airport can expect with interconnection. 1.4. What can airports theoretically expect? For customers, interconnection of infrastructure may create new possibilities of long distance travels, by combining trains and planes. An intermodal flight with a long distance train access to the hub has also the advantage of a departure in the train station, which is usually located in a central position with good public transport accessibility. For all transport operators, these new possibilities of travel may have “induction effects” on the global market. In this background, trains can be part of the solution for increasing the number of routes, both for airports and companies. But for airports, the real advantages expected deal with capacities and market shares. ¾ A gain of time slot capacity for airports and companies The split on rail of one part of the air traffic is often put forward as a possible solution for overcrowded airports where land expansion is problematical. Theoretically, airports can expect that the passengers split from air to rail will be able to create new slot capacity, by subsiding some domestic flights by train services. With the loss of passengers on the domestic air routes in competition with train, companies will have to redefine their product on the route. Airports can also expect a reduction of the number of flights between the two cities and then liberation of slot time capacity. “Feeding traffic into a multimodal hub by high-speed train frees time slots at the airports” (ITA, 1991, p.104). However, this potential slot liberation cannot be considered as a direct result of the infrastructure interconnection. In practice, we will see later that many conditions are required. As opponents of train, companies have to maintain their air services to feed their hub for their customers. They can rationalise their lines by using smaller planes or upheld low rental lines in most constraint periods, only for passengers in transit. Thus, the capacity gained may in fact only take place on low congestion period. Interconnection can be part of the congestion problem only in a case of an integrated system, with a total split of passenger on train services. This hub transfer by train has thus the advantage of freeing slot time capacity in the most constraint period of aeroplanes meeting. The slots released can thus be re-affected for new long-haul routes or more profitable flights. At least, the transfer on train services can have positive effects on the terminals’ capacity for passengers in transit. By splitting a part of passengers from air to rail, airports can report supply needs from terminals to train stations. Airports can thus expect that their investments in infrastructure’s interconnection with high-speed train will have positive effects on the congestion issue and therefore reduce the needs of investments on terminals or ground installations. 8 ¾ An increase of market shares The second advantage deals with traffic increases. It seems reasonable to think that the attractiveness of combined train / plane transport solution will generate news traffics for the interconnected airport. This increase can have four main causes. The first is the pure induction of new passenger demands on long distance trip in the provincial areas connected to the airport by high-speed trains. This is particularly true for provincial areas, which doesn’t have a continental or domestic air platform. The train will thus create new solution of travel. For some air routes, the high-speed train services feed the hub in the same way as sort-haul domestic flights do, and there is thus an increased of the frequencies. The second case of traffic increase comes from the modal split from exclusive train or car solutions. The volume of traffic split may also be minor as the market modal share is already in favour of air solutions for such distances. Pure induction Ó Ó Traffic split from trains and roads Ó Regional city centre Ó Regional airport Main city Ó Hub Ó Interconnected Hub High speed train service Flight Other land modes Figure 3: the traffic increase by a modal split from train point to point and road solution The third source comes from the modification of the traffic share between the airport of the city connected by train and the interconnected airport. If the area connected to the hub has a domestic platform, the induction of traffic in the hub can also come from decrease of the international point to point traffic in profit of combined train / plane solution. Interconnection can thus promote interconnected airports to catch point to point passenger from others regional airport. This is the case for instance on the route Nantes–Milano. The traffic on the point to point line will decrease in favour of combined solution transiting by Roissy in the case of an interconnection of the airport with the TGV Atlantique, and then generate additional passengers on the route Roissy Charles de Gaulle – Milano Malpensa. This increase of traffic in the interconnected airport is thus not an induction for the global air system. However, theses additional passengers for airport as to be moderated by the volume of the travel demand. Actually, the volume of travel demand from provincial areas to international capitals is minor in regard with the traffic between international capitals. For smaller airports, the competitive advantage is more territorial by enlarging the potential market for point to point travel. With a high-speed rail interconnection, airports will be at onehour accessibility from cities’ center in a distance of 250 or 300 kilometres. For medium-haul flight, the geographic market share can be modified by high speed train services. A customer located in a city centre interconnected by high speed train can thus reach to the interconnected 9 airport located in another region as fast as the regional airport located closer, or at least more easily from the city centre. Ó Traffic split from regional long haul flights Ó Ó Regional city centre ÓRegional airport Ó Ó Main city Hub Interconnected Hub High speed train service Flight Figure 4: the gain of traffic of interconnected airport by a better land accessibility The last case of traffic increase for an interconnected airport comes from the traffic capture in a continental competition between platforms of the same dimension. This is the case for instance for Brussels. As the THALYS join Brussels City to Roissy Charles de Gaulle, one part of the traffic of the airport can be thus captured by Roissy airport. With a speed train interconnection, a hub can be thus more competitive by proposing a departure from the city center with a train access. It can be for example the case for the route Lille – New York. Without interconnection, this passenger can have the choice between Roissy CDG and London Heathrow for the transit by air. With interconnection, train can thus make the access of the hub with a departure from the city centre, which will promote the hub of Roissy CDG. Ó Ó Ó Traffic split from other hub Ó Point to point traffic capture from other airports Ó Regional city centre ÓRegional airport Main city Hub Interconnected Hub Ó Ó High speed train service Flight Figure 5: traffic capture from other hubs or airports Beyond the traffic increase that interconnected airport can theoretically expect, interconnection may profit main platforms to hold up their dominant position. 10 2. Does interconnection really promote airports? To go further these statements, the paper tries to highlight in witch specific cases airports can really expect gains of a high-speed train interconnection. By examination of the two examples of Roissy and Lyon [2.1.], the paper shows that the infrastructure interconnection is only enough to make certain an intermodal success. Many other conditions have to be taken into consideration, as the size of the airport. In terms of time slots capacity, it is also difficult to observe and quantify real gains for airports. The example of Frankfurt shows that it is difficult to substitute all airplanes by high-speed trains. Air services will be upheld, especially in peak periods [2.3.]. In terms of traffic, if the success of interconnection can be reveal by the use of combined train – aeroplane solutions, it is also difficult to rely the intermodal figures with passenger’s traffic grothw. 2.1. The conditions of success are many The last decade have seen an increase of airport’s investments for rail interconnection. In Europe, this quest of infrastructures concerned the main hubs as well as smaller platforms. Nevertheless, the first part of this paper shows that the success of such investments depend on many conditions beyond the infrastructure issue. ¾ The size condition The examination of the potential gains made in part [1.4.] reveals that the size of the airport is fundamental. The traffic split from other regional airports, which means to substitute a direct flight by a combined train / plane trip, will be effective only for long distance travels, particularly intercontinental flight. It is thus difficult to imagine such split for short or middle haul routes. The traffic split from other hub and the traffic capture from other airports suppose that the interconnected airport can propose the same destinations. This size condition is then obvious. In terms of traffic, intercontinental hubs will benefit more of a high-speed train interconnection comparatively to a continental platform. The case of France is significant. TGV station traffic in 2002 Numbers of train per day Part of intermodality in the TGV station traffic Intermodal passenger Intermodal passenger / per day / per train4 Air traffic (except transit) Part of intermodality in the point to point traffic Data 2002 from SNCF 4 Roissy TGV Lyon Saint Exupery TGV 2,4 millions 0,284 millions ≈ 50 ≈ 18 67% 10% ≈ 1,8 millions ≈ 90 32,6 millions ≈ 0,028 millions <5 5,1 millions 4,9% 0,55% Intermodal traffic / 365 days / numbers of trains 11 In the same year, 1994, the intercontinental hub of Roissy Charles de Gaulle and the airport of Lyon Saint Exupery (named formerly Lyon Satolas) were interconnected to the TGV, the french high speed train network, with contrasted results. If we examine the traffic figures of the two TGV stations, we see that intermodal practices are very low in the case of Lyon Saint Exupery comparatively to the case of Roissy Charles de Gaulle. If the condition of having long haul flights to promote intermodality is evident, many airports consider in the other hand that the infrastructure interconnection will be an advantage to develop such routes. For airports, interconnection with high-speed train services has become a commercial message to interest new companies and news consumers. The interconnection between high-speed trains has put emphasis on the competition between the main platforms in Europe. In practice, the example of Lyon Saint Exupery shows that the infrastructure interconnection cannot really cope up with the size difficulty. Despite the TGV interconnection, the airport wasn’t able to uphold the intercontinental route between Lyon and New York. The airline, opened on the 1st April of 2000, has been closed by DELTA AIRLINES only one year after on the 31 August of 2001. In opposition to it, the noninterconnected airports of Nice or Toulouse proposed many flights per day for the United States. ¾ The necessity of an integrated system Many other causes of the low intermodality observed in Lyon Saint Exupery can be held out. More over than the question of size or the nature of the flights proposed, there is actually no real integration of rail services. To have a real collaboration between trains and planes, the compatibility of timetables are at least required. It supposes to have many trains per day for a destination. The trains have also to be placed in order to minimise the connecting times. More over, a real collaboration supposed that the rail system might be able to propose other travel solutions in case of flight delayed. It means that 3-4 departures (and arrivals) per day located with respect to the connecting times are a minimum to have a system and encourage intermodal practices for one direction. In terms of frequencies and destinations, about 50 TGV per day are available in Roissy Charles de Gaulle airport. Many cities, as Lille or Brussels, have more than 3 relations per day by TGV located in peak period. In addition to it, an intermodal product, named TGV Air, is proposed by SNCF in collaboration with air companies. This product is a commercial collaboration between air companies and SNCF. A company can buy, in advance, many places in the different TGV in departure or arrival at Roissy Charles de Gaulle. The travellers change their air reservation into a train ticket in an exclusive desk in the TGV station. Thus, they travel by train under a number of flights. TGV Air is disposable for 14 national destinations5 from Roissy Charles de Gaulle and concerned 8 companies6. The travel check-in can be done in the TGV station for Air France travellers for many destinations. Travellers can also receive their boarding pass for Roissy Airport before getting in the TGV. They buy their trip as a trip by plane. 5 In 2003 : Lille-Europe, St-Pierre des Corps, Rennes, Nantes, Angers, Le Mans, Poitiers, Bordeaux St Jean, Lyon Part-Dieu, Valence TGV, Avignon TGV, Marseille St Charles, Nîmes and Montpellier. 6 In 2003 : Air France, Lufthansa, United Airlines, American Airlines, Delta Air lines, KLM, Amirates and Continental Airlines. 12 In Lyon, the situation is very different. Less than 20 TGV stop daily in the TGV station but there is no real integration of rail services. Except for Paris City center, the numbers of relations with the other cities are very low. In addition to it, the timetables are not built to maximise the number of possible connections with flights. There is no intermodal product disposable with the infrastructures’ interconnection. Interconnection of infrastructures is then not enough to expect the gains highlighted before. The size of the airport and the nature of the flights in one hand, and the level of rail services integration in the second hand, are also important conditions to expect a real gain for interconnected airports. 2.2. Do interconnection really free capacity for airports? ¾ The transfer on rail do not directly impact the numbers of flights The ITA’s study (ITA, 1991, p.104-105) has point out this advantage as a possible important income for airports. By analysing the potential splits of traffic with the TGV Atlantique achievement, ITA has estimated rapidly that the transfer of passengers on TGV services interconnected with Paris can free: - 400 time slots on the route Nantes – Milano Malpensa if the consequences of the traffic diminution lead to a close of the direct route. All the traffic on the route is thus supposed to be transfer into Paris. The 5,000 additional on the route Paris - Milano represent a marginal part of the traffic between the two cities, and then will not generate new needs of slot capacity than the existing services. - 2,500 time slots on the route Nantes – Paris with 50% of modal split on train services. Then, in this specific case, Roissy Charles de Gaulle can expect to free 2,500 time slots on the domestic route Nantes-Paris and a gain of 5,000 passengers in correspondence to fill the existing flights joining Milan – Malpensa. However, these projections have to be moderated by the many realities. At first, as precise in ITA’s study, these time slots liberation doesn’t really cope up with the congestion problem, as the time slots cut out are not located in peak periods. If the reduction of the number of the flights can be expected on average, it is most difficult to assert that the train services will free capacity in peak period. Moreover, the traffic reduction on a route doesn’t necessary means a reduction of the number of flights. In the specific case of Nantes-Paris7, the development of the TGV network has reduced the air traffic of the air traffic of 30%. Air Inter, to cope up with this decrease, has first restructured its services by using smaller airplanes without reducing the numbers of flights between the two cities (7.5 per day). In spite of a reduction of 15% of the traffic in 92, Air Inter has upheld 12 flights per day between Paris and Bordeaux, as in 1988 before the TGV Altantique has been achieved (in 09/1990). The same situation is observed for several other routes, as Paris-Rennes or Paris-Brest. 7 Source PERRIN, 1995, p.14-16. 13 Even if in 1991, Roissy airport wasn’t interconnected yet, the experience of Nantes shows the transfer on trains do not result directly on time slot liberation, particularly in peak periods. ¾ The necessity of an integrated system Actually, only a real integrated system can allows airports to expect real gains of capacity coming from the infrastructure interconnection. Companies will substitute entirely their air services on rail services only if where is an integration of the air transport process on rail services. Except this last condition and without changes of slot allocation practices, companies will still upheld low rental lines to feed by airplanes their hub especially in peak periods. Further than the geographic continuity of the travels permitted by an infrastructure interconnection, there must be thus an integration of the different aspects of transportation services. At first, there must be a continuity of timetables. Train services have to respect the timetables of other planes. After that, the continuity of the quality of service seems to be important too. If the trains are as comfortable as planes, the lack is essentially on board services, like the presence of a steward, the food distribution or newspapers disposability. At least but not last, it must be continuity in the trip production for airline. The information about the transfer of its customers is important for the company, which requires the possibility of a trip check-in in the train station. More over the luggage transfer has to be taken in charge, which is not the case today in trains. Passenger information continuity seems to be important too. These conditions need an adaptation of train services, which are not design to propose such functions. The security issue has to be elucidated, with respect to the Minimum Connecting Time of the hub. The transfer from a train to a plane has to be at least as fast as a transfer from plane to plane. At least but not last, the pricing question has to be treated, as many air customers may benefit of airlines’ fidelity programs, they will beware of the possibility of accumulating miles on the train integrated services. Thus, if airports can theoretically expect a gain of capacity by investing in interconnection, the real gain will depend on the capacity (or motivation) of both rail operator and air companies to created an integrated travel system. ¾ A example of integrated system in Europe In Europe, one of the most integrated systems combining high-speed train services for hub feeding is running at the moment in Frankfurt airport. With infrastructure interconnection, the airport benefits of a good accessibility by long distance train services. The two ICE lines Hamburg – Bremen – Münster – Dortmund Cologne – Frankfurt Airport– Mannheim – Basel and Berlin – Hanover – Dortmund – Cologne – Frankfurt Airport – Frankfurt City – Nuremberg crossed the airport every hour. The ICE line Hamburg – Hanover – Kassel – Frankfurt City – Frankfurt Airport – Stuttgart crossed the airport every two hours. In addition to it, an IC line between Dresden and Passau crossed the airport every two hours. The airport is already connected with the S-Bahn (commuter trains network), the R-Bahn (regional trains) and bus services. To go further the simple interconnection of transportation services, the integrated product AIRail has been developed on the ICE route Stuttgart city – Frankfurt airport and is a jointventure of Lufthansa, Deutsche Bahn and FRAPORT AG. On the existing ICE from Stuttgart 14 performed by DB, air travellers of Lufthansa can check in and out and pass custom controls at Stuttgart central train station. The check-in has to be made until 20 minutes before train departure. They also receive their airline-boarding pass before reaching the train, where a specific railway wagon is reserved for Lufthansa. Onboard service, comparable to European Lufthansa business class service is proposed. The baggage is transfer automatically. A Lufthansa terminal for flight and baggage check-in is available in the train station. In 2003, the AIRail service has been extended to Cologne. The tickets are available directly from Lufthansa or travel agencies under a flight number. 6.5 trains per day are available with AIRail service from/to Stuttgart and 15 trains from/to Cologne. These trains, running seven days of the week, covered in time the principal needs of peak periods. The advantage for Lufthansa is obvious according to the increase of AIRail services in its timetable. In terms of time slot capacity, the airport timetable of 2004 reveals that, even from Cologne with the 15 daily frequencies of AIRail service, the air traffic between the two airports has not been cut out. Lufthansa have still maintained flights sometimes very close in time departure or arrival to train services in peak period. If the gain of capacity is obvious, by the decrease of the number of flights for the cities interconnected with AIRail, it is difficult to assert that this element is significant for the capacity issue considering peak periods. Example of interconnection with high-speed trains, particularly in Frankfurt, shows that in practice, the substitution cannot be total yet, even with high integration of rail services. Some air travellers will prefer to use airplanes. One reason can be the location of the train station itself. If in average the train station has a better ground accessibility by a more central location than airports, this is not absolute for all passengers. People around the airport are closer to it and the ground congestion of cities’ center has to be taken into consideration too. 2.3. Does interconnection really promote the airport passenger traffic? For a specific interconnected airport, how to estimate easily the number of additional passengers fed by high speed train services? A first, the use of the trains services for intermodal practices can be a good indicator of additional traffics. In this case, the intermodal traffic figures of the train station can be used. But many precautions have to be taken. To illustrate that, we can take a look at the figures of the TGV stations of Roissy Charles de Gaulle. As indicated before, crossed by more than 50 TGV per day Roissy Charles de Gaulle interconnection is one of the most integrated multimodal places in Europe. Passengers can also benefit of an integrated service named TGV Air. In 2002, about 2.4 millions of passengers have transited in the TGV station. The part of intermodal air-rail passengers is close to 2/3, which correspond to 1.6 millions passengers. The intermodal practice allowed by interconnection represents thus 1.6 millions passengers for Roissy airport in 2002. At this stage, a methodological precision must be defined for taking into consideration the traffic feed by train services. The traffic of an airport can be divided into two distinctive parts. The point to point traffic composes the first part and the second is composed by the transit traffic. In the point to point traffic, a majority is local demand. Trains, roads, bus and all ground transport system in competition make the rest of extra-regional demand feed with short-haul flight. As high-speed trains impact directly both on point to point and transit traffics, the figures of intermodal traffic can be taken into consideration in two ways. 15 TRANSIT TRAFFIC Long distance ground access (except trains) Train Access LOCAL TRAFFIC Feed by local networks Figure 6: the traffic structure of an airport In a non-integrated system, high-speed train services must be considered as ground transportation system for airport access in the same way as for roads or buses. Passengers reaching the airport by high-speed trains are thus considered as point to point travellers. In the case of Roissy CDG, the traffic except transit is about 32.8 MPAX in 2002. The 1.6 millions passenger feed by TGV represent thus 5% of the local traffic of the airport. In an integrated system, high-speed train services must be considered as real air services. Passengers, travelling by train under a number of flights, are thus assimilated as transit passengers. In the case of Roissy, the 1.6 millions passengers feed by TGV represent thus 8% of the transit traffic. We can also consider that passengers travelling by trains under a number of flight are air passenger in transit, while the other passenger in correspondence with a train are thus point to point traffic. But considering that the high-speed train interconnection promotes the airport traffic of 5% or 8% is will be a too fast and wrong statement. All the traffic feed by train services cannot be considered as pure additional traffic for airports. A part of this traffic comes from the modal split from road in the hub access, and was already point to point travellers. Another part comes from the split from short-haul flights for the hub access. In an integrated system, the impact of this modal split will be null in the traffic figure. Passengers on trains are in this case with a number of flights, they are thus still passengers in transit. In a non-integrated system, these intermodal passengers will increase the figures of the long-haul point to point traffic and decrease the numbers of passengers in transit. In final, we have to consider only the intermodal passengers coming from the spatial split from other airports or coming from pure induction. Actually, the real impacts of the interconnection on the global traffic figures are difficult to estimate finely. Only a fine analysis of the figures, routes by routes, before and after setting train services, can reveal the gain of traffic. For this paper, we don’t have the figures to make such an analysis. As for the gain of capacity, the gain of passenger due to the interconnection is difficult to estimate. 16 Conclusion Even if the profits of a rail interconnection are actually difficult to quantify, both in terms of slot capacity and passenger traffic, it is evident that the increase of intermodal practices has positive advantages for all actors, from passengers, airports to air and rail companies. At least, the presence of high-speed train station is a major signal used by airports in their business plan. However, the paper shows that the infrastructure achievement is far to be enough for having a successful wedding between the rail and the air system. As important as the infrastructure interconnection itself, many conditions are required to come to the benefits expected. The paper points out the necessity of having an integrated system. It supposes that the train station will be crossed by a real intermodal rail system. To bring the train operator and air companies to operate together in such direction, there is a clear question of size of the airport itself. The creation of an integrated system has to cope up with the financial constrains of the two systems. In main situations, the intermodal traffic alone cannot be sufficient to justify the creation of high-speed train services. If the infrastructure can be a motor for the airport development, it will not be able to resolve alone all the original problems due to the air market. Other questions have to be discussed in the next few years. We have seen that the substitution of short-haul flights by trains cannot be total. In the future, will systems be able to propose a complete integration, and then liberate massive slot capacity? As train stations in airports will become commonplace in Europe, what will be the real impact of rail infrastructures in the market share? 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