Trends in Regional Traffic Volumes:
Signs of Change?
East-West Gateway Council of Governments
March 20, 2008
What is VMT and Why Should We Care?
•Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) is an indicator of regional
mobility. It’s a measure of the total number of miles
driven by all vehicles in the region.
•VMT is often an indicator of congestion.
•VMT is useful in deciding when, where and whether new
roads, or additional lanes on existing roads, need to be
built.
•To the extent that gasoline taxes constitute the principal
source of funding for transportation projects, changes in
VMT can significantly affect transportation financing.
VMT Trends
•The long term trend for VMT has generally been characterized
by rapid growth.
•Beginning early in this decade VMT growth started to slow in
the region. At the national level the trend appears to have
begun mid-decade.
•There do remain local "hot spots" where traffic volume does
continue to increase. However, these high volume areas may
not represent the entire region.
Annual Average Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled
EWG Region
Year
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
AADVMT
35,907,078
36,388,830
37,211,706
40,269,224
42,693,821
43,491,733
46,263,500
47,860,288
50,425,590
53,014,608
54,751,026
55,411,345
57,281,606
Source: MODOT, IDOT
Annual
Percent
Growth Rate
--1.3%
2.3%
8.2%
6.0%
1.9%
6.4%
3.5%
5.4%
5.1%
3.3%
1.2%
3.4%
Year
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
AADVMT
59,271,185
61,934,978
63,759,719
64,959,535
66,447,197
67,288,592
67,335,905
67,501,182
68,084,456
69,318,653
70,072,589
70,726,927
69,983,917
Annual
Percent
Growth Rate
3.5%
4.5%
2.9%
1.9%
2.3%
1.3%
0.1%
0.2%
0.9%
1.8%
1.1%
0.9%
-1.1%
Annual Average Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled
EWG Region
2.3% Average Annual
Growth
.7% Average Annual
Growth
70,000,000
.3% Average
Annual
Growth
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Vehicle Miles Traveled
80,000,000
4.3% Average Annual
Growth
Year
Source: MODOT, IDOT
Local Hot Spots
Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled (Millions), US
Year
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
VMT
1,549,466
1,617,340
1,678,363
1,739,350
1,800,933
1,880,862
1,966,572
2,062,893
2,130,634
2,145,074
2,204,858
2,269,835
2,313,543
Annual Percent
Growth Rate
---4.4
3.8
3.6
3.5
4.4
4.6
4.9
3.3
0.7
2.8
2.9
1.9
Year
VMT
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2,400,555
2,433,987
2,517,474
2,581,051
2,638,895
2,727,792
2,762,770
2,823,292
2,858,883
2,933,243
2,979,121
2,997,685
SOURCE: FHWA, TRAFFIC VOLUME TRENDS, MAY 2007
Annual Percent
Growth Rate
3.8
1.4
3.4
2.5
2.2
3.4
1.3
2.2
1.3
2.6
1.6
0.6
Urban Vehicle Miles Traveled, US
4.0% Average Annual
Growth
2.7% Average Annual
Growth
2.7% Average
Annual Growth
VMT (millions)
2,500,000
2,000,000
.1%
Annual
Growth
1,500,000
1,000,000
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
500,000
Years
SOURCE: US Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration
Vehicle Miles Traveled, US
2.4% Average Annual
Growth
4.1% Average Annual
Growth
1.6% Average Annual
Growth
3,100,000
VMT (millions)
2,900,000
.6%
Annual
Growth
2,700,000
2,500,000
2,300,000
2,100,000
1,900,000
Year
SOURCE: FHWA, TRAFFIC VOLUME TRENDS, MAY 2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1,500,000
1982
1,700,000
Tractor Trailer Vehicle Miles Traveled, US
3.2% Average Annual
Growth
160,000
3.7% Average Annual
Growth
1.2% Average
Annual Growth
.9%
Annual
Growth
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
Year
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
0
1981
20,000
1980
VMT (millions)
140,000
Demographic Factors Affecting VMT Growth
ƒ Population Growth
ƒ Age of the Population
ƒ Household Composition
ƒ Labor Force Participation
ƒ Vehicle Availability
Population Growth
Population Growth Rates (Percent)
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
1970-2000
Annual Percent
Growth Rate, 19702000
Source: US Census
EWG Region
-2.5
2.8
3.9
4.2
US
11.4
9.8
13.2
38.4
0.1
0.82
Age of the Population
Annual Miles Driven, US
Age of Driver
0-15
16-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65+
Annual Miles
353
6,638
13,982
15,902
16,265
16,309
15,817
15,674
14,733
13,753
12,124
8,223
Source: National Household Travel Survey, 2001
Household Composition
Annual Miles per Driver by Household Type
Number of Adults
1
1
2
2
Child Present
No
Yes
No
Yes
Source: National Household Travel Survey, 2001
Miles per Driver
11,687
13,848
12,775
15,339
Labor Force Participation
Female Labor Force Participation, US, 1960-2045
Year Participation Rate
1960
37.7
1961
38.1
1962
37.9
1963
38.3
1964
38.7
1965
39.3
1966
40.3
1967
41.1
1968
41.6
1969
42.7
1970
43.3
1971
43.4
1972
43.9
1973
44.7
1974
45.6
1975
46.3
1976
47.3
1977
48.4
1978
50
1979
51
1980
51.6
1981
52.2
1982
52.6
1983
52.9
1984
53.6
Year Participation Rate
1985
54.5
1986
55.3
1987
56
1988
56.6
1989
57.4
1990
57.5
1991
57.3
1992
57.8
1993
57.9
1994
58.8
1995
58.9
1996
59.3
1997
59.8
1998
59.8
1999
60
2000
60.2
2005
60
2010
59.2
2015
57.9
2020
56.3
2025
54.9
2030
54
2035
53.7
2040
53.7
2045
53.7
Source: BLS 2002 Age Adjusted Labor Force Participation Rates, 1960-2045
Labor Force Participation
Female Labor Force Participation Rates – 1960 thru 2045
70
60
Percent
50
40
30
20
10
19
60
19
64
19
68
19
72
19
76
19
80
19
84
19
88
19
92
19
96
20
00
20
04
20
08
20
12
20
16
20
20
20
24
20
28
20
32
20
36
20
40
20
44
0
Years
Source: BLS 2002 Age Adjusted Labor Force Participation Rates, 1960-2045
Vehicle Availability
Percentage of Occupied Housing Units With No
Available Vehicle
Madison
Monroe
St. Clair
Franklin
Jefferson
St. Charles
St. Louis County
St. Louis City
Region
Source: US Census
1980
9.1
7.1
14.9
7.5
4.5
3.7
5.7
31.2
12.4
1990
8.7
5.0
13.2
6.8
4.3
6.0
6.0
29.1
11.0
2000
7.0
3.3
10.4
5.9
4.3
3.6
6.4
25.2
9.2
2006
5.2
--8.2
4.1
4.2
3.5
6.0
21.6
---
Gas Prices Measured in Pennies and VMT Measured in
Billions
0
Year
JAN06
JAN05
100
JAN04
JAN03
JAN02
JAN01
JAN00
JAN99
JAN98
JAN97
JAN96
JAN95
JAN94
JAN93
JAN92
Gas Prices
Monthly Gas Prices and VMT - 1992 thru 2006
350
300
250
200
150
Gas Price, 2007 dollars
50
VMT*1 Billion
Conclusions
Several demographic trends suggest that VMT growth will be
moderate, and we are not likely to ever see a return to the
growth rates of past decades:
•Female labor force participation rates have stabilized.
•The working-age population is likely to decline in absolute
terms over the next decade.
•The number of two-parent households with children is
declining.
•Auto ownership rates are not likely to rise dramatically in the
future.
•Gasoline prices may add a further incentive to reduce
driving.
Trends in Regional Traffic Volumes:
Signs of Change?
East-West Gateway Council of Governments
March 20, 2008