APRIL 1998
1091
NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE
Statistical Analysis of the Characteristics of Severe Typhoons Hitting the
Japanese Main Islands
TAKESHI FUJII
General Education and Research Center, Kyoto Sangyo University, Kyoto, Japan
5 May 1997 and 19 July 1997
ABSTRACT
Characteristics of 51 severe typhoons hitting the Japanese main islands with central pressure equal to or less
than 980 hPa during the period 1955–94 were analyzed by an objective method using hourly station observation
during typhoon passages. Position of a typhoon center, central pressure depth Dp, and radius of the maximum
wind r m , were obtained at hourly intervals after landfall on the main islands of Japan. The pressure profile of
severe typhoons used in this analysis was chosen from formulas presented in previous papers, namely the same
as one used by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for hurricanes hitting Florida.
Coastlines of the main islands were divided into three sections: areas A, B, and C extending from west to
east. Statistical analyses of parameters were made for each area. At time of landfall, the maximum value of Dp
was 83.2 hPa for area A, 85.2 hPa for area B, and 47.8 hPa for area C. The differences in return period of Dp
among areas are considered to be caused by the SST distribution off the Pacific coast. On average, typhoons
making landfall in area C have larger r m and speed, and display a more eastward component of translation than
those in the other two areas. The differences of speed and direction among areas and months can be explained
to be caused by variation of the synoptic-scale air current at the 500-hPa level.
1. Introduction
In most parts of western Japan, severe natural disasters have mainly been caused by typhoons. In 1959,
Typhoon Vera (Isewan) caused a high storm surge and
more than 5000 deaths. Recently, Typhoon Mireille
of 1991 damaged about 680 000 wooden houses, and
losses paid by insurance amounted to 600 billion yen
(about 5 billion U.S.). Statistical images of such severe typhoons hitting Japan are figured out in this
paper.
The author has presented an objective analysis
method of pressure patterns of typhoons fitting a prescribed pressure formula (Fujii 1974). Using this
method, the author and collaborators chose the best
fit formula for tropical cyclones hitting the Japanese
main islands from various formulas presented previously (Mitsuta et al. 1979), to be the one used by the
U.S. Corps of Engineers. (Schloemer 1954) for hurricanes hitting Florida.
In this study, pressure patterns of typhoons making
landfall on the Japanese main islands were reanalyzed
for a 40-yr period from 1955 to 1994 including those
analyzed in previous studies (Mitsuta et al. 1979; Mit-
Corresponding author address: Takeshi Fujii, General Education
and Research Center, Kyoto Sangyo University, Kamigamo, Kita,
Kyoto 603-8555, Japan.
E-mail: [email protected]
q 1998 American Meteorological Society
suta and Fujii 1986). The 51 severe typhoons making
landfall on the Japanese main islands in this period
with the central pressure equal to or less than 980 hPa
were analyzed by fitting to the pressure profile formula by Schloemer.
2. Experimental formula for pressure profile of
a typhoon
Mature stage tropical cyclones are characterized by
their concentric pressure patterns. The pressure distribution can be given by one radial pressure profile.
The formula chosen to represent typhoons hitting the
Japanese islands by a previous study (Mitsuta et al.
1979) is one proposed by Schloemer (1954), namely,
1 x2 ,
p 5 p c 1 Dp exp 2
1
(1)
where p is the sea level pressure at the radial distance
r, p c is the pressure at a typhoon center, Dp 5 p ` 2
p c ( p ` is peripheral pressure) defined as the central
pressure depth, and x 5 r/r m (r m is radius of the maximum wind speed).
Holland (1980) has extended this equation by adding another parameter, B, to represent small-scale
tropical cyclones in Australia:
1 x 2.
p 5 p c 1 Dp exp 2
1
B
(2)
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MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW
This formula was applied to the estimation of the
storm surge in Bangladesh by Hubbert et al. (1991)
and Flather (1994). Hubbert et al. also presented an
experimental relation representing increase of B with
decreasing p c .
Using Eq. (2), Fujii and Mitsuta (1995) analyzed
pressure patterns of three typhoons, Mireille of 1991,
Yancy of 1993, and Orchid of 1994, that made landfall
on the Japanese main islands in recent years with
strong intensity. Their results showed that pressure
patterns can be approximated reasonably with B 5
1.0. This implies that pressure profiles of intense typhoons reaching the Japanese main islands in midlatitudes may be represented by Eq. (1) without any
serious error. So, in this study Eq. (1) is used.
3. Method of the objective analysis
The pressure distribution formula, Eq. (1), was fitted to an hourly sea level atmospheric pressure at
weather stations of the Japanese Meteorological
Agency (JMA) within about 250 km of the typhoon
center by the least square method for each typhoon.
In this process, the following weighting function, w r ,
was applied in order to get a close fitting to the observed sea level pressures near the typhoon center:
100

w r 5  r
10,
,
r . 10 km
(3)
r # 10 km.
The fitting process starts from a given central position
(latitude f and longitude l ) and an initial r m . The first
estimation of Dp was computed by using the method of
least squares. The initial central position, (f, l ), can be
a rough estimate that may be the position of the weather
station showing the minimum pressure, and initial r m
may also be 80 km, which is the average by the previous
study (Mitsuta and Fujii 1986). Root-mean-square error,
s p , was computed from the difference between computed sea level pressures and observed pressures at
weather stations, multiplied by the weighting function
w r shown in Eq. (3) as follows:
O w (p 2 p
s 5
Ow
p



r
comp
r
obs
) 21/2


,
(4)
where pcomp and p obs are computed and measured sea
level pressures at each station.
With successive changes of r m at intervals of 0.5
km, s p is computed. Values of r m and Dp, are chosen
as the set of values showing the minimum s p . Then,
the typhoon center is shifted by 60.018 in latitude or
longitude, and a second estimate of central position
is chosen as the position that gives the minimum value
of s p after adjusting values of r m and Dp by the method shown above. Repeating this procedure, the best
VOLUME 126
estimates of the typhoon center (f, l ), r m , Dp, and
s p , were determined.
In this study, the distance increment was reduced
from 0.028 used in a previous study (Mitsuta and Fujii
1986) to 0.018, and the interval of r m was reduced
from 1 to 0.5 km. The outer boundary of the analysis
region also extended from 200 to 250 km from the
typhoon center. Data from approximately 20–40 stations could be used at each hour. Results of the analysis of 51 severe typhoons over 40 years are summarized in Table 1. Detailed hourly data for each typhoon are compiled in a database, which is available
upon request.
4. Statistical characteristics at time of
landfall
Most severe typhoons approach Japan from the
southwest along the periphery of the Pacific Ocean
over the warm Kuroshio Current. They are in a mature
stage, but some are already weakened after its peak.
While the Japanese main islands extend from southsouthwest to north-northeast, typhoons hitting them
are a little different in nature between the western and
eastern parts of Japan. The Pacific coasts of the main
islands of Japan were divided into three areas—A, B,
and C—as shown in Fig. 1a. These were 20 out of 51
typhoons that made landfall in area A, 19 in area B,
and 12 in area C. The time of landfall is defined as
the first hour after a typhoon pressure center crosses
the smoothed coastline as shown in Fig. 1a. Direction
and speed of the typhoon movement at landfall are
defined as the vector difference between hourly typhoon positions just before landfall and at landfall.
The distribution of sea surface temperature (SST)
in August is also shown in Fig. 1b, in relation to
comparison of typhoon intensities among areas.
a. Central pressure depth, Dp
From the annual maximum values of Dp at time of
landfall, return periods are computed by the method
of Hazen (1930) for annual peak values for each area.
However, these values cannot be compared among
areas due to differences in the length of the coastline.
So, the widths of the areas looking from the averaged
direction of typhoon translations, which is shown by
an arrow in Fig. 1a, are 233 km in area A, 348 km
in area B, and 253 km in area C. Return periods of
Dp are converted into the values per invading width
of 100 km, which are shown in Fig. 2.
Expected values for return periods of 50 years per
100 km are 73 hPa in area A, 60 hPa in area B, and
43 hPa in area C, and those for 25 years are 63, 57,
and 37 hPa, respectively.
Apparent discontinuities are seen from 52 to 64 hPa
for area A and from 37 to 51 hPa for area B. The
reason is not clear but may be caused by the mixing
APRIL 1998
1093
NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE
TABLE 1. List of 51 typhoons that made landfall on the Japanese main islands with central pressure below 980 hPa in the period from
1955 to 1994 with the typical parameters obtained by the analysis of this study.
Year
1955
1956
1957
1958
1958
1959
1959
1960
1961
1961
1963
1964
1964
1965
1965
1965
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1970
1970
1971
1971
1972
1972
1974
1975
1976
1979
1979
1980
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
1982
1983
1985
1985
1987
1989
1990
1991
1991
1992
1993
1994
Typhoon
name
Louise
Harriet
Bess
Helen
Ida
Ellen
Vera
Della
Nancy
Violet
Bess
Kathy
Wilda
Jean
Lucy
Shirley
Trix
Ida
Dinah
Mary
Cora
Olga
Wilda
Anita
Olive
Trix
Tess
Helen
Polly
Rita
Fran
Owen
Tip
Orchid
Ogden
Thad
Cecil
Ellis
Judy
Ken
Abby
Irma
Pat
Kelly
Roger
Flo
Kinna
Mireille
Janis
Yancy
Orchid
Area of
Typhoon landnumber
fall
5522
5615
5710
5821
5822
5906
5915
6016
6118
6124
6309
6414
6420
6515
6517
6523
6524
6626
6734
6804
6909
7002
7009
7010
7119
7123
7209
7220
7416
7506
7617
7916
7920
8013
8110
8115
8210
8213
8218
8219
8305
8506
8513
8719
8917
9019
9117
9119
9210
9313
9426
A
C
A
C
C
B
B
B
B
C
A
A
A
A
C
B
C
C
B
B
A
B
A
B
A
A
A
B
B
B
A
B
B
A
A
C
C
A
C
B
C
C
A
B
B
B
A
A
A
A
B
At landfall
Time change rate
Dp
(hPa)
rm
(km)
C
(km h21)
g
(8)
ap
(1022 h21)
ar
(km h21)
ac
(km h22)
ad
(8 h21)
63.8
30.9
48.2
46.5
42.8
21.6
85.2
29.4
69.0
35.4
31.4
40.0
83.2
50.6
37.9
59.9
41.2
47.8
33.9
27.0
43.1
27.9
47.7
52.0
38.1
33.1
21.2
54.4
31.3
31.6
42.4
56.8
29.0
26.9
32.3
38.6
23.2
40.9
36.2
29.5
20.0
30.4
52.3
36.8
25.4
59.6
42.2
69.0
50.9
77.1
59.5
97.5
67.0
84.5
118.0
44.0
146.0
105.5
68.0
75.0
104.0
105.0
77.5
50.5
50.5
26.0
67.0
106.0
30.0
79.0
267.5
54.0
77.5
56.0
102.5
71.0
123.5
99.5
93.0
88.0
90.0
81.0
40.5
117.5
273.0
36.5
261.0
102.0
82.0
122.5
111.0
88.5
106.0
52.0
110.5
108.0
74.0
72.0
83.5
83.0
56.0
49.5
29
54
35
47
34
26
45
50
39
101
29
13
33
37
31
55
66
50
52
47
40
28
26
21
27
24
15
53
30
23
19
49
64
76
22
48
72
18
34
41
29
81
42
44
38
40
40
67
38
44
28
217
55
44
45
52
40
12
22
31
45
25
24
29
29
27
16
27
23
21
252
64
226
47
230
36
18
263
22
235
24
27
35
38
6
242
26
4
24
29
12
11
51
26
34
24
56
30
61
38
28
39
4.9
—
6.4
3.5
21.2
1.2
11.9
6.4
8.0
—
7.0
2.1
9.7
11.7
18.5
8.9
7.9
—
—
1.6
4.2
9.9
7.2
6.2
6.8
0.9
3.1
7.7
9.3
2.8
7.4
14.8
5.9
1.0
9.2
0.8
1.8
5.0
12.2
9.2
2.9
1.5
7.9
9.6
3.5
10.7
10.8
6.8
7.3
10.0
16.1
4.3
—
5.0
5.3
8.0
4.5
12.3
4.9
4.5
—
9.7
1.5
6.7
10.2
4.3
5.5
20.0
—
—
211.5
3.4
7.2
5.9
3.7
3.5
20.8
23.4
15.0
9.3
3.5
12.7
7.7
17.5
229.4
3.2
24.8
4.4
6.8
18.4
12.3
1.8
11.3
5.0
14.2
15.1
6.7
9.7
14.6
9.8
9.1
12.3
2.9
—
23.9
5.0
5.7
1.9
6.9
0.4
7.9
—
23.9
20.3
0.6
3.6
25.7
6.0
4.6
—
—
23.4
21.8
0.0
2.4
5.0
1.4
22.3
5.7
3.3
3.2
2.0
3.4
3.9
9.4
26.4
2.0
10.2
26.8
3.4
6.4
2.8
23.1
2.3
2.7
2.6
20.3
2.0
2.5
11.0
20.6
1.7
6.3
6.8
—
25.6
2.9
28.0
3.9
2.1
23.2
0.3
—
211.6
3.5
1.7
23.4
4.0
2.3
0.4
—
—
3.7
22.1
20.1
20.9
4.1
29.2
1.9
7.1
0.1
3.2
0.9
2.4
2.5
0.9
1.2
21.7
24.0
22.6
23.8
22.1
24.2
25.7
21.3
0.7
22.2
4.4
24.6
21.7
24.5
21.8
28.5
25.9
of developing and decaying stage typhoons in areas
A and B, where warm seawater with SST above 288C
is distributed at 100 km off the Pacific coast, as shown
in Fig. 1b. On the other hand, almost all of the typhoons making landfall in area C, where SST is lower
than 278C, are in the decaying stage, and thus there
is no apparent discontinuity. These complicated probability curves for each area may also suggest difficulty
in typhoon statistics.
b. Radius of the maximum wind, rm
The radius of the maximum wind speed, r m , is one
index of the horizontal scale of a typhoon as seen in
Eq. (1). The frequency distribution of r m at landfall is
shown in Fig. 3. For 27 out of 51 analyzed severe typhoons, r m is in the range of 50–100 km. The frequency
of typhoons with a large value of r m is larger in the
eastern area than in the western area, and averages of
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VOLUME 126
r m in each area are 84 km in area A, 98 km in area B,
and 98 km in area C.
The relation of r m to Dp at landfall is shown in Fig.
4. As seen in this figure, severe typhoons have small
values of r m . The correlation coefficients between r m
and Dp are 20.40 for typhoons making landfall in area
A and 20.39 for those in area B, and there is a weak
but significant relation. However, for typhoons making
landfall in area C, r m has no significant correlation to
Dp, which may be the result of no typhoons having high
intensity, (Dp exceeding 50 hPa).
After trial with several functions, it is assumed that
r m decreases logarithmically with Dp, and the best-fit
curves for areas A and B are represented in Fig. 4. No
significant differences between these curves is seen. The
best-fit curve for all areas is drawn, and it shows that
r m is 93 km for Dp 5 40 hPa, 72 km for Dp 5 60 hPa,
and 56 km for Dp 5 80 hPa.
c. Speed of translation, C
Occurrence frequencies of typhoon speed, C, at time
of landfall are shown in Fig. 5. As a whole, 32 out of
51 severe typhoons have speeds of 20–50 km h21 . Average speeds in each area are 34 km h21 (59.4 m s21 )
in area A, 41 km h21 (511.3 m s21 ) in area B, and 54
km h21 (515.0 m s21 ) in area C.
The differences among these areas are considered to
be caused by differences of the steering current speeds
in the middle and upper troposphere. Monthly mean
values and standard deviations of wind speed at the 500hPa level averaged over the period of 1961–80 are
shown in Table 2. Kagoshima, Shionomisaki, and Tateno are located near the Pacific coasts in areas A, B,
and C, respectively, as seen in Fig. 1a. The average
wind speeds of the four months from July to October
are 12.3 m s21 at Kagoshima, 14.2 m s21 at Shionomisaki, and 15.7 m s21 at Tateno. The averaged typhoon
speeds correspond to 0.8–1.0 time the mean wind speed
at the 500-hPa level.
As seen in Table 2, the wind at the 500-hPa level has
a significant variation from month to month, and it is
the weakest in August and the highest in October. In
Fig. 5, almost all typhoons in August have slow translation speeds, below 50 km h21 , and three of the four
typhoons in October have fast speeds exceeding 50 km
h21 . Therefore, scattering over a wide range of typhoon
speeds is considered to be caused by variations in
strength of the synoptic-scale steering current.
d. Direction of motion, g
Typhoon direction g is measured clockwise from the
north, and frequency distributions of g at landfall are
shown in Fig. 6. In areas A and B, some typhoons made
landfall with the westward translating components. Almost all of these typhoons made landfall in July or
August. In these months, the west–east component of
FIG. 1. (a) Division of the Pacific coast of the Japanese main islands.
Broken lines represent smoothed coast lines, and a circle indicates a
location of a weather station, where K, S, and T are abbreviations
for Kagoshima, Shionmisaki, and Tateno, respectively. (b) The climatological SST distribution in August in the sea area around the
Japanese main islands. SST is the average value over the period 1961–
94, based on the dataset of SST over the western North Pacific compiled by JMA. An arrow indicates an averaged direction of typhoon
translation, 238 measured clockwise from the north.
air current at the 500-hPa level is weak, as seen in Table
2, and the steering current flows westward occasionally
with northward shifting of the subtropical ridge.
5. Time change after landfall
Of the 51 typhoons analyzed, 47 could be traced for
more than 5 h after landfall with central pressures below
990 hPa. Time changes in typhoon characteristics after
landfall were analyzed for these typhoons.
a. The filling rate of Dp
Generally, intense typhoons have larger filling rates
than weak ones (e.g., Tuleya et al. 1984). So, the filling
rate of Dp with time, t, after landfall can be shown as
the function of Dp after Matano (1956) as follows;
dDp
5 2a pDp,
dt
(5)
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NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE
FIG. 2. Expected values of central pressure depth Dp as a function
of return period. Return periods were estimated by the method of
Hazen (1930). The abscissa is drawn with a double exponential scale.
where a p is a parameter representing a typhoon filling
rate. Therefore, Dp decreases exponentially with t as,
Dp 5 Dp 0 exp(2a p t),
(6)
where Dp 0 is Dp at the time of landfall. Rapid decrease
of a p with increasing r mo has been reported by this author
(Fujii 1987) because lateral mixing is more effective
than bottom or surface friction on typhoon filling when
there is no energy supply from the sea surface. Averages
of a p are 0.065 h21 in area A, 0.080 h21 in area B, and
0.078 h21 in area C. It is noted that typhoons making
landfill in area A had the small filling rate.
In Fig. 7, a p is shown as a function of r m0 , which is
r m at landfall. The values of a p are correlated with those
of r m0 inversely with the correlation coefficients of
20.64 for typhoons in area A, 20.66 in area B, and
20.64 in area C. The best-fit curves are shown in this
figure, on the assumption of exponentially decreasing
a p with r m0 . The regression curves indicate no significant
difference among areas.
For all typhoons, the correlation coefficient between
r m0 and a p is 20.58, and the best-fit curve is also shown
in Fig. 7. This curve gives the filling rates of 0.13 h21
for r m0 5 50 km and 0.05 h21 for r m0 5 100 km.
FIG. 3. Frequency distributions of radii of maximum wind speed,
r m , at landfall.
b. Time changes of other parameters
Other parameters of typhoons, radius of maximum
winds r m , and translation speed C, and direction g are
assumed to be expressed by linear trends as follows:
r m 5 r m0 1 a r t

C 5 C0 1 a c t ,

g 5 g0 1 a d t 
FIG. 4. Relation between Dp and r m at landfall.
(7)
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MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW
VOLUME 126
FIG. 5. Same as Fig. 3 except for translation speed C.
where a r , a c , and a d are new parameters representing a
time change rate and suffix 0 denotes the value at landfall.
Values of a r range from 229 to 20 km h21 . Out of
the 47 typhoons investigated, 29 show time changes of
r m in the range 0–10 km h21 . Averages in each area are
4.9 km h21 in area A, 7.5 km h21 in area B, and 8.1 km
h21 in area C.
Increase of r m with typhoon decay is considered to
be caused by the weakening of the warm core in the
FIG. 6. Same as Fig. 3 except for translation direction g.
upper layer inside of the eyewall with reduction of energy supply in the eyewall and rising of the sea level
pressure at a typhoon center, and, as a result, decreasing
of the pressure gradient force in the vicinity of r m . It
may resemble the expanding of the maximum wind radius after AgI crystal seeding in a hurricane modification experiment (e.g., Anthes 1982).
The rate of change of typhoon translation is equiv-
TABLE 2. Average (avg.) and standard deviation (SD) of wind speeds (m s 21) at the 500-hPa level (1200 UTC) averaged over the period
from 1961 to 1980 (Japan Meteorological Agency 1983).
July
August
September
October
Avg.
SD
Avg.
SD
Avg.
SD
Avg.
SD
4-month
avg.
Kagoshima
W–E component
S–N component
Total speed
5.1
1.0
9.9
1.0
1.6
2.1
1.8
1.4
8.3
3.6
1.8
1.6
8.9
2.7
12.5
3.3
1.7
2.9
16.4
2.5
18.3
3.1
1.6
2.9
12.3
Shionomisaki
W–E component
S–N component
Total speed
7.0
0.4
11.5
4.3
1.7
2.3
3.7
1.5
9.6
3.9
2.0
1.8
11.6
3.6
14.6
3.4
2.2
2.9
18.4
4.7
21.0
3.4
1.9
2.9
14.2
Tateno
W–E component
S–N component
Total speed
8.8
20.4
12.0
3.7
1.8
2.6
6.9
1.0
10.0
3.7
1.7
2.6
14.6
4.5
17.4
3.7
2.8
3.2
20.3
5.6
23.2
3.4
2.3
3.1
15.7
Station
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NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE
SST and synoptic-scale air current at the 500-hPa level.
A study on a relation of typhoon deepening and filling
to SST will be published by this author in the near
future. Wide scattering of typhoon speed and direction
frequency distributions depended on variation of the air
current at the 500-hPa level with month.
Results shown here could be synthesized and used in
constructing a typhoon model in various disaster prevention works.
Acknowledgments. The author would like to express
his thanks to Professor Yasushi Mitsuta of Kyoto University for many helpful comments. He would also like
to thank the Japan Meteorological Agency for providing
the surface meteorological data and the Northwest Pacific SST Data Set.
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FIG. 7. The relation between exponential filling rate, a p , of Dp and
radius of maximum wind speed, r m0 , at landfall.
alent to typhoon acceleration/deceleration. Out of 47
typhoons, 34 are in the range of 0–10 km h22 , with an
average of 1.4 km h22 for typhoons having made landfall
in area A, 3.3 km h22 in area B, and 2.8 km h22 in area
C. Typhoons that made landfall in area A had small
acceleration.
Time changes in typhoon center direction are mostly
within 658 h21 , and they are small for several hours
after landfall.
6. Concluding remarks
Objective analyses were made for 51 severe typhoons
hitting the Japanese main islands with central pressures
below 980 hPa at landfall within the 40-yr period from
1955 to 1994, to obtain typhoon parameters based upon
sea level pressure data. The pressure profile formula
used in this analysis is the exponential type, the same
used by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for analysis
of hurricanes hitting Florida.
These analyses can be made objectively without map
analyses and may be used in real-time monitoring of
typhoon movement.
The statistics of the analyzed parameters indicated
good correspondence to climatological distributions of
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