>AKFUTURE.ORG 1 Alaska’s Future WE ARE: A statewide coali.on of Alaskans joined together to promote a solu.on to the budget deficit that threatens Alaska’s future. WE AGREE: Every conceivable solu.on to Alaska’s budget deficit requires using Permanent Fund earnings to support essen.al public services. OUR MISSION: during the Cul.vate the broad based public support necessary to convince the Legislature 2016 legisla2ve session to use Permanent Fund earnings to significantly reduce the deficit, support essen.al public services and maintain a sustainable dividend and a healthy Permanent Fund. This is the first step toward a stable economic founda2on for Alaska. >AKFUTURE.ORG 2 Alaska’s Future Co-­‐Chairs • 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
Eleanor Andrews (Andrews Group) Vince Beltrami (AK AFL-­‐CIO) Ron Duncan (GCI) Governor Tony Knowles Sophie Minich (CIRI) Steve Frank (Former State Senator) Helvi Sandvik (NANA) >AKFUTURE.ORG 3 Alaska Oil Revenues Dependence = Vulnerability •  In 1978 60% of Alaska Revenues came from oil. •  From 2005 to 2014, oil revenues averaged 90% of General Fund revenues. >AKFUTURE.ORG 4 Status Quo Is Not Sustainable Even at $50/Barrel •  ConsRtuRonal Budget Reserve runs out by September 2018. •  Will then have to use the Permanent Fund Earnings Reserve and the Permanent Fund Dividend will cease. •  Shortly thereaXer the money will be gone! This will not only jeopardize our jobs, economy, educa.on, and healthcare system, it will jeopardize the Permanent Fund itself, and, with it, the prosperity of our children and grandchildren. •  Before we run out of savings, the state will be in a recession, We will have lower credit ra.ngs, reduced investment, job losses, limited lending, and a depressed housing market. •  We won’t be able to fund the gas line. Source: UAA Ins.tute of Social & Economic Research, State of Alaska Department of Revenue, Analysis North >AKFUTURE.ORG 5 Rising Oil Prices Won’t Save Us Price would have to rise to $109/barrel for Alaska to break even. >AKFUTURE.ORG “We must stop pretending that oil can pay for everything.” – Fran Ulmer, Alaska Business Monthly, June 2015 6 Spending Vastly Exceeds Revenues Source: UAA Ins.tute of Social & Economic Research, State of Alaska Department of Revenue, Analysis North >AKFUTURE.ORG 7 Deficits Will Quickly Consume Savings Source: UAA Ins.tute of Social & Economic Research, State of Alaska Department of Revenue, Analysis North >AKFUTURE.ORG 8 Deficit Exceeds Two Largest State Expenditures Source: UAA Ins.tute of Social & Economic Research, State of Alaska Department of Revenue, Analysis North >AKFUTURE.ORG 9 New Revenues Are Hard to Come By Source: UAA Ins.tute of Social & Economic Research, State of Alaska Department of Revenue, Analysis North >AKFUTURE.ORG 10 If we do nothing: Savings are gone in less than 30 months Source: UAA Ins.tute of Social & Economic Research, State of Alaska Department of Revenue, Analysis North >AKFUTURE.ORG 11 Budget Cuts Alone Don’t Move the Needle Source: UAA Ins.tute of Social & Economic Research, State of Alaska Department of Revenue, Analysis North >AKFUTURE.ORG 12 Cuts & Revenues of $500M each in 2016... Don’t Do Much $500 Million Each in Cuts and New Revenues Adopted in 2016 Session Source: UAA Ins.tute of Social & Economic Research, State of Alaska Department of Revenue, Analysis North >AKFUTURE.ORG 13 Earnings from the Permanent Fund… Make a Difference Source: UAA Ins.tute of Social & Economic Research, State of Alaska Department of Revenue, Analysis North >AKFUTURE.ORG 14 Earnings Plus Cuts and Revenues of $500M... Go a Long Way Source: UAA Ins.tute of Social & Economic Research, State of Alaska Department of Revenue, Analysis North >AKFUTURE.ORG 15 Governor’s Plan Closes the Gap Source: UAA Ins.tute of Social & Economic Research, State of Alaska Department of Revenue, Analysis North >AKFUTURE.ORG 16 When Do Savings Reach Zero? Source: UAA Ins.tute of Social & Economic Research, State of Alaska Department of Revenue, Analysis North >AKFUTURE.ORG 17 We Can Keep a Sustainable Dividend Keeping the current dividend formula is choosing to end the dividend in three years Source: UAA Ins.tute of Social & Economic Research, State of Alaska Department of Revenue, Analysis North >AKFUTURE.ORG 18 The Price of Inaction in 2016 is Huge
•  Burning another $3-­‐4 billion of savings limits op.ons we have today to: –  Preserve the Permanent Fund
–  Preserve PFD checks
–  Fund essential state services going forward
•  No combina.on of cuts/taxes alone will fill the budget hole •  Currently outspending revenues by more than $300 million per month •  Wai.ng to act squanders our best opportunity to ensure Alaska’s future and protect Alaska jobs Source: UAA Ins.tute of Social & Economic Research, State of Alaska Department of Revenue, Analysis North >AKFUTURE.ORG 19 What can you do? >AKFUTURE.ORG 20 Join Alaska’s Future • 
• 
• 
• 
Register at www.akfuture.org Share informa.on Speak up Submit a Permission Slip •  ACT NOW! >AKFUTURE.ORG 21