MAKING THE INTANGIBLES TANGIBLE: SOFT POWER AND ITS SUBUNITS HENDRIK W. OHNESORGE* Paper Presented at the Emerging Scholars Forum at the ISA West Annual Conference 2014 Pasadena, California, USA September 26, 2014 Soft power, as introduced by Joseph S. Nye, Jr. in 1990, has become one of the most popular catchphrases in the study and practice of international relations alike. However, engagement in the concept of soft power frequently reveals fundamental conceptual inaccuracies. The paper takes these observations as a starting point and with the dissection of soft power into different so-called subunits seeks to offer a remedy for these perceived conceptual shortcomings. To this end, a dissection of the concept of soft power into four “soft power subunits” (i.e., resources, instruments, reception, and outcomes) is proposed. To illustrate the mechanisms and interplay among these subunits, a comprehensive schematic shall be presented. Founded on the theoretical assumptions of soft power and taking into account empirical data for each soft power subunit, the schematic offers a detailed step-by-step elucidation of the mechanisms of a hitherto highly intangible – yet exceedingly valuable – concept. Keywords: International Relations Theory; Soft Power; Soft Power Subunits CENTER FOR GLOBAL STUDIES WORKING PAPER: PLEASE DO NOT CITE WITHOUT AUTHOR’S PERMISSION. COMMENTS ARE MOST WELCOME! * Contact Information: Hendrik W. Ohnesorge, Research Fellow, Center for Global Studies, Chair in International Relations, University of Bonn, Walter-Flex-Straße 3, D53113 Bonn, Germany. Hendrik W. Ohnesorge Introduction In 1990, Joseph S. Nye, Jr. introduced the concept of soft power.1 Originally intended to contribute to the then-prevailing debate on U.S. national decline, Nye elaborated upon the idea of soft power in a number of subsequent writings. 2 Today, “soft power” has become one of the most popular catchphrases in the study and practice of international relations alike and the term can be found in academic publications and political speeches around the globe. Nonetheless, although – or perhaps precisely because – many writers and practitioners have adopted the idea of soft power, the concept frequently reveals fundamental conceptual inaccuracies. These can partly be attributed to the high level of vagueness in Nye’s own formulation of the concept, partly to varying (and frequently defacing) understandings of soft power as put forth by different commentators. The paper at hand takes these observations as a starting point and seeks to offer a remedy for the perceived conceptual shortcomings. In order to do so, the paper – after briefly outlining the fundamental underlying ideas of soft power as put forth by Joseph Nye – introduces four distinct categories to deconstruct the concept of soft power into four so called soft power subunits. These subunits (i.e., resources, instruments, reception, and outcomes) offer theoretical specification and allow for a more precise examination of a hitherto highly intangible – yet exceedingly valuable – concept. Bearing in mind Goethe’s famous verses from Faust that “all theory is grey, and green the golden tree of life” the paper seeks to elucidate each soft power subunit with recourse to an empirical example found in historic or present-day international relations. 1 2 Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power (New York: Basic Books, 1990). Most prominently in Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics (New York: Public Affairs, 2004) and Joseph S. Nye, Jr., The Future of Power (New York: Public Affairs, 2011). 2 Making the Intangibles Tangible Soft Power in International Relations Power constitutes one of the most fundamental concepts in International Relations. At the same time, it remains one of the most contested and controversial.3 It is in this vein that Joseph Nye argues, “Power is like the weather. Everyone depends on it and talks about it, but few understand it.”4 Mindful of this predicament, Nye saw need to elaborate and enhance the traditional understandings of power in international relations, particularly as the world saw the end of the Cold War and a fundamental resetting of the international political landscape took place. 5 Against this backdrop, Nye introduced the concept of soft power. Mindful of the countless definitional approaches to be found in literature, Nye offers his own definition of power as “the ability to influence the behavior of others to get the outcomes one wants.”6 However, Nye argues, “there are several ways to affect the behavior of others. You can coerce them with threats; you can induce them with payments; or you can attract and co-opt them to want what you want.”7 With the recourse to coercion with threats and inducements with payments Nye alludes to measures commonly subsumed under the term of hard power. Joseph Nye refers to the two varieties of hard power, i.e., (military) coercion and (economic) inducement, as “sticks” and “carrots.”8 Nye, however, argues that there exists another form of power and 3 4 5 6 7 8 See, for example, Kenneth N. Waltz, “Reflections on Theory of International Politics: A Response to My Critics,” in Neorealism and its Critics, ed. Robert O. Keohane (New York: Columbia University Press, 1986), 333; Michael Barnett and Raymond Duvall, “Power in International Politics,” International Organization 59, no. 1 (Winter 2005): 66; Steven Lukes, “Power and the Battle for the Hearts and Minds,” Millennium: Journal of International Studies 33, no. 3 (2005): 484. Nye, Soft Power, 1. Joseph S. Nye, Jr., “Foreword,” in Soft Power Superpowers: Cultural and National Assets of Japan and the United States, edited by Watanabe Yasushi and David L. McConnell, ix-xiv (Armonk: M.E. Sharpe, 2008), ix. Nye, Soft Power, 2. Ibid. Ibid., 5. 3 Hendrik W. Ohnesorge holds that a “country may achieve the outcomes it prefers in world politics because other countries want to follow it or have agreed to a system that produces such effects.”9 He elaborates upon this idea and argues that “[t]his aspect of power – that is, getting others to want what you want – might be called indirect or co-optive power behavior.” 10 This definition of a hitherto neglected – yet not unknown – face of power presented in 1990 as “getting others to want what you want” constitutes the integral part of the soft power narrative up to this day.11 Though the concept of soft power has undergone some elaboration since its introduction in 1990, Nye, in his pivotal writing on the issue, takes on his prior definition of soft power almost word-by-word as “getting others to want the outcomes you want.”12 In a nutshell, soft power thus refers to “the ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payments.”13 Instead of relying on hard power “sticks” and “carrots,” soft power behavior, therefore, “is about mobilizing cooperation from others without threats or payments.”14 In Nye’s understanding soft power “rests on the ability to shape the preferences of others” 15 and “[s]imply put, in behavioral terms soft power is attractive power.”16 Soft Power Subunits As has already been argued above, the idea of soft power has meanwhile become a regular feature in academic, public, and political discussions on International Relations and adjacent research areas. However, the concept of 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Nye, Soft Power, 31. Ibid. First predominantly labeled “co-optive power,” the term “soft power” as the power to “getting others to want what you want” stuck in public, political, and academic debate. While in Bound to Lead no index entry exists for “soft power,” the publication of an eponymous article in Foreign Policy heralded the ultimate triumph of the term, see Joseph S. Nye, Jr., “Soft Power,” Foreign Policy 80 (Autumn 1990), 153-71. Nye, Soft Power, 5. Ibid., x. Ibid., 60. Ibid., 5. Ibid., 6. 4 Making the Intangibles Tangible soft power itself is characterized by a high level of inherent vagueness and calls for further specification. This observation is at least in part accounted for by the fact that Nye himself gave ample scope for interpretation and over the years has put forth different understandings of his own concept. 17 Additionally, many works by scholars and commentators on the issue of soft power subsume varying aspects and mechanisms under the overarching term. Some have even put forth understandings of soft powers which bear little resemblance to the original idea as put forth bye Nye. All in all, a highly inclusive approach to the concept of soft power has emerged, encompassing everything and huddling together qualitatively different aspects under one single, fashionable term. Therefore, the analytical capacity of the innovative concept of soft power to a large extent gets lost due to imprecise framing and consequently in-depth analyses of the mechanisms of soft power are often deficient. The introduction of four distinct soft power subunits shall help navigate this observed dilemma and thus help to make the study of soft power more feasible. Hence, I hold that future research and discourse should not be on “culture as soft power” or “public diplomacy as soft power,” but rather (in order to stick to these two arbitrarily chosen examples which shall be picked up in detail below) on “culture as a soft power resource” or “public diplomacy as a soft power instrument.” The following illustration offers an overview of the four soft power subunits put forth in this paper and depicts their distinctions as well as interactions. The illustration shall serve as a guideline and reference point to elucidate the different soft power subunits (i.e., resources, instruments, reception, and outcomes) in the following. By building on the theoretical considerations put forth by Joseph Nye and further elaborating them, each subunit shall be underpinned by taking into account empirical data and examples. 17 Inderjeet Parmar and Michael Cox, “Introduction,” in Soft Power and US Foreign Policy. Theoretical, Historical and Contemporary Perspectives, edited by Inderjeet Parmar and Michael Cox, 1-3, Abingdon: Routledge, 2010, 2. 5 Hendrik W. Ohnesorge 6 Making the Intangibles Tangible Explaining the Illustration Before going into detail regarding the four soft power subunits, Illustration 1 shall be presented in brief. Horizontally, the illustration is divided in what Joseph Nye calls the active and the passive approach to soft power.18 On the one hand, a nation may pursue “active efforts to create attraction and soft power.”19 This may be achieved through actively engaging in (political) programs such as, for example, public diplomacy, cultural and educational exchanges, (international) broadcasting or other media and information campaigns. Such instruments can actively disseminate national soft power resources to an international public. On the other hand, while the active form of wielding soft power draws upon the pursuit of deliberately designed programs and measures, a second variety, i.e., the passive form of soft power, rather feeds on attractive pull. In such cases, the second soft power subunit (soft power instruments) may be leapfrogged and soft power resources themselves develop a high level of inherent attraction and charisma thus obviating the need for the employment of (political) instruments. Referencing the famous biblical trope brought to prominence by John Winthrop, governor of the Massachusetts Bay Colony in the 17th century, Nye labels this variety of soft power the “passive city on the hill effect.”20 Vertically, the illustration is divided into two major columns representing two actors in the process of wielding soft power, Actor A and Actor B: Through the wielding of soft power Actor A seeks to get Actor B to want the outcomes it wants. To achieve this goal, Actor A has three major soft power resources at its disposal: culture, values, and foreign policy. In order to communicate these resources and if possible translate them into desired outcomes, Actor A may resort to such instruments as, for example, public diplomacy, (international) broadcasting or educational exchanges. These instruments do not constitute 18 19 20 Nye, Future of Power, 94. Ibid. Ibid., 98. 7 Hendrik W. Ohnesorge soft power resources in their own right; rather they serve as a transmission belt, communicating resources to an (international) audience. Through these instruments Actor A is able to create either attraction or repulsion on part of Actor B, who is on the reception end of the soft power event chain. Depending on whether attraction or repulsion was created, Actor B is acting either in accord or discord with Actor A. Actor A – in the case attraction was created and Actor B consequently acting in accord with Actor A – thus gets the outcomes it intended. This sequence is a condensed and simplified depiction of the fundamental workings of the active approach to soft power and the interaction of its four subunits, which shall now be looked at in more detail. Soft Power Subunit 1: Resources Turning to the first soft power subunit and following Joseph Nye, three overarching soft power resources can be identified. Nye hence presents a tripartite classification with regard to the sources of soft power, “The soft power of a country rests primarily on three resources: its culture (in places where it is attractive to others), its political values (when it lives up to them at home and abroad), and its foreign policy (when they are 21 seen as legitimate and having moral authority).” Regarding all three sources, Nye points out in his parenthetical insertions that soft power is highly dependent on the respective context and circumstances in which it is set and frequently is subject to changes.22 Whereas hard power rests on such resources as force and sanctions or payments and bribes, the three most central resources on the soft power end of the power spectrum are identified as (1) culture, (2) values, and (3) policies. Culture Nye identifies a country’s culture as the first of the three main sources of soft power. The term of “culture”, of course, calls for further concretization and definition. While definitions of culture are as manifold as those of power, Nye defines culture as “the set of values and practices that create meaning for a 21 22 Nye, Soft Power, 11. Ibid., 68. 8 Making the Intangibles Tangible society.”23 Further elaborating upon the question of culture, Nye, following the accepted convention, distinguishes between high and popular culture. Whereas high culture encompasses art, literature, and education and is predominantly appealing to elites, popular culture comprises mass entertainment such as (pop) music, movies, or even fashion items.24 Being regularly distinctly non-governmental in nature but instead shaped by civil society actors such as universities, companies, or foundations, culture presents a rather inexpensive source of soft power and can be spread by commerce, exchanges, personal contacts, tourism, or visits.25 In the age of globalization and information, the private dimension of spreading culture is likely to further gain in importance and governments should see that their actions reinforce rather than subvert national soft power.26 As mentioned above, movies constitute famous examples of cultural soft power resources that regularly reach a broad audience and develop substantial leverage. A famous example in this regard is the 1957 Hollywood movie 12 Angry Men staring Henry Fonda. The critically acclaimed movie, adapted from Reginald Rose’s eponymous teleplay, is a classic courtroom drama in which a jury is confronted with the task of discussing the guilt or innocence of a young man accused of stabbing his father. The movie depicts the American jury system in a highly critical fashion and on this account the Communist government permitted it to be played in Czechoslovakia. Among intellectuals, however, the movie had the opposite effect as intended by Communist officials as Czech movie director Milos Foreman recalls, “If that country can make this kind of thing, films about itself, oh, that country must have pride and must have an inner strength, and must be strong enough and must be free.”27 This episode exemplifies very well how movies can act as (cultural) soft power sources. 23 24 25 26 27 Nye, Soft Power, 11. Ibid. Ibid., 13, 17. Ibid., 17. Quoted in Nye, Soft Power, 17. 9 Hendrik W. Ohnesorge Values Following the enumeration presented by Joseph Nye, (political) values constitute a second major soft power source and can thus be assigned to the subunit of resources. Hence Nye argues that “[t]he values a government champions in its behavior at home (for example, democracy), in international institutions (working with others), and in foreign policy (promoting peace and human rights) strongly affect 28 the preferences of others.” In his concretization of the influence of (political) values as sources for soft power, Nye distinguishes between three levels: domestic values, values championed in inter-state cooperation, and values advocated in one’s foreign policy. While on a domestic level, democracy is identified as a source of soft power, subscribing to a multilateral approach in dealing with other states rather than consistently pursuing unilateral solo runs constitutes a source of soft power in interstate relations. Finally, espousing values like human rights and democracy in one’s foreign policy represents the third level of soft power deriving from (political) values. However, as Nye argues, merely evoking values like human rights and democracy is not sufficient, rather governments should live up to and bolster them by pursuing a legitimate foreign policy.29 (Foreign) Policies Finally, politics championed by a government both at home and abroad constitutes the third and final source of soft power identified by Joseph Nye.30 He argues that the soft power deriving from this source rests as much on the substance, i.e. the content and goals, as on the tactics and style, i.e. the ways and means in which a nation pursues its policies. 31 Nye argues that “[d]omestic or foreign policies that appear to be hypocritical, arrogant, indifferent to the opinion of others, or based on a narrow approach to national interests can undermine soft power.”32 Therefore, just as government politics can help create soft power, they can just as easily – and perhaps even more 28 29 30 31 32 Nye, Soft Power, 14. Ibid., 55. Ibid., 13. Ibid., 68. Ibid., 14. 10 Making the Intangibles Tangible easily – squander soft power capital through rash, hypocritical actions guided by self-interest. 33 In this regard, domestic and foreign policies are highly interdepended in their effects on national soft power. Soft Power Subunit 2: Instruments As depicted in the illustration, soft power instruments constitute the second soft power subunit. As has briefly been argued above, these instruments include public and cultural diplomacy initiatives, (international) broadcasting, educational and cultural exchanges, and various other instruments. These instruments, frequently actively enhanced by national governments, serve as a transmission belt designed to communicate soft power resources (predominantly but not exclusively culture) to an (international) audience. While on the underlying soft power resources themselves much work has been done, systematically and empirically analyzing instruments applied by nation states in order to translate soft power resources into desired outcomes still remains a wide field for further research. International broadcasting, for example, constitutes a prominent soft power instrument. It can be defined as “a complex combination of state-sponsored news, information and entertainment directed at a population outside the sponsoring state’s boundaries.”34 The roots of international broadcasting can be traced back to World War II, when particularly radio and newsreel were used as propaganda measures. During the Cold War television became the predominant medium and meanwhile – in the digital information age of the 21st century – online communication and broadcasting is on its way to replace 33 34 Nye, Soft Power, 14. Monroe E. Price, Susan Haas, and Drew Margolin, “New Technologies and International Broadcasting: Reflections on Adaptations and Transformations,” The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 616, no. 1 (2008): 152-3. 11 Hendrik W. Ohnesorge traditional media.35 In recent years, as soft power has become a central topic of public and political debate as well as academic research, international broadcasting as a means to enhance national soft power has increasingly gained center stage. Thus, via the soft power instrument of international broadcasting a nation state is capable of spreading its messages throughout the world. International broadcasting and media initiatives therefore serve as a transmission belt in order to turn existing soft power resources into desired outcomes (via attraction, see below). A nation state that recently has stepped up its efforts in this area is the People’s Republic of China. Thus, in recent years, Chinese rhetoric on the importance of boosting national soft power (brought to prominence by thenPresident Hu Jintao who called for an enhancement of national cultural activities in his much-noticed speech at the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China on October 15, 2007) has been turned into practice. Particular emphasis has been put on the soft power instrument of public diplomacy and the associated internationalization of Chinese state media.36 Thus, within the larger framework of China’s “Going Out Policy”, the “Big Four” 37 in Chinese media landscape (Xinhua News Agency, Central China Television, China Radio International, and China Daily) have each undergone extensive restructuring and initiated globally-oriented programs to spread Chinese culture and improve China’s image around the world. With the creation and continual expansion of media outlets such as these, China 35 36 37 Lee Claire Seungeun, “China’s International Broadcasting as a Soft Power Ma(r)ker: Its Market Formation and Audience Making,” ERCCT Online Paper Series, EOPS No. 0027, November 2013, http://www.ercct.unituebingen.de/Files/ERCCT%20Online%20Paper%20Series/Young%20Sc holar%20Workshop%202013/EOPS27,%20Lee%20Claire%20Seungeun, %20China's%20International%20Broadcasting%20as%20a%20Soft%20P ower%20Ma(r)ker%20Its%20Market%20Formation%20and%20Audience %20Making.pdf, (accessed August 1, 2014): 5-6. Sergio Grassi, Changing the Narrative: Chinas mediale Offensive in Afrika, Internationale Politikanalyse (Berlin: Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, 2014), 2. David Shambaugh, China Goes Global: The Partial Power (New York: Oxford University Press, 2013), 227. 12 Making the Intangibles Tangible seeks to provide an alternative to the predominantly Western-dominated media “by presenting China’s own version of issues and events happening inside China, Asia and the world.” 38 These efforts constitute an excellent example of soft power instruments and deserve – like comparable measures taken by other actors in international relations – further scholarly attention. Soft Power Subunit 3: Reception Turning to the second major column of the illustration presented above, Actor B is the receiver or target of the measures undertaken by Actor A in order to enhance its soft power. Compared to the wielding of hard power, soft power is marked by far greater reciprocity between actors involved since both the agent and the target of soft power projection play a crucial role in its creation and success.39 Thus, employing soft power tends to be less unilateral than the recourse to hard power measures and positive reception, therefore, is highly significant for the creation of desired outcomes through soft power.40 (Hence, a two-way arrow is drawn in the illustration.) However, soft power resources may at times not only fail to create attraction but instead may result in the opposite of attraction, i.e., repulsion.41 Nye thus holds (think the parenthetic inversion in Nye’s enumeration of soft power sources cited above: “in places where it is attractive to others”) that soft power resources (and particularly culture as such a resource) may have different and even contradictory effects in different countries or even within a given society. For, as Nye argues, “a given cultural artifact, such as a Hollywood movie that portrays liberated women acting independently, may produce positive attraction in Rio but revulsion in Riyadh.” 42 This observation once again illustrates the great dependency upon the respective context when assessing the effectiveness of soft power instruments. Thus, the resource of culture as an ingredient of soft 38 39 40 41 42 Zhang Xioaling, “Chinese State Media Going Global,” East Asian Policy 2, no. 1 (2010): 43. Nye, Future of Power, 92. Joseph S. Nye, Jr., “The Decline of America’s Soft Power: Why Washington Should Worry,” Foreign Affairs 83, no. 3 (May/June 2004): 20. Nye, Future of Power, 92. Ibid., 92-3, see also Nye, Soft Power, 12-3, 52. 13 Hendrik W. Ohnesorge power being transmitted by soft power instruments is more likely to achieve desired outcomes when the agent’s and the target’s respective cultures bear at least some similarities. 43 Assessments whether a certain soft power instrument evokes attraction on the one end of the spectrum or repulsion on the other may be performed, for example, by the conduction of surveys or opinion polls. Regarding empirical evidence in regard of this soft power subunit, the establishment of the meanwhile approximately 500 Confucius Institutes around the globe over the last decade may serve as a brief illustration. Evocative of comparable establishments like the British Council, the Alliance Française or the German Goethe Institutes, the Chinese cultural institutes are themselves to be classified as soft power instruments. As such, the Chinese government exerts comprehensive influence over the establishment, financing, and curricula of Confucius Institutes since their introduction in 2004. Located at the campuses of universities all around the globe, these institutes teach locals in Chinese language and culture.44 In many cases, the institutes, offering a first hand perspective on Chinese culture and language, are perceived positively as polls and surveys have demonstrated. However, regarding the reception of these institutes the picture is highly diverging as individual case studies on the subject have also demonstrated.45 A recent report from the American Association of University Professors (AAUP), for example, indicates that instead of creating attraction towards China by establishing Confucius Institutes on U.S. university and college campuses, the opposite is evoked in practice. The AAUP report from June 2014 thus concludes, “Confucius Institutes function as an arm of the Chinese state and are allowed to ignore academic freedom. Their academic activities are under the supervision of Hanban, a Chinese state agency which is chaired by a 43 44 45 Nye, Soft Power, 15-6. Joshua Kurlantzick, Charm Offensive: How China’s Soft Power is Transforming the World (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2007), 68. See, for example, Yang Rui, “Soft Power and Higher Education: An Examination of China’s Confucius Institutes,” Globalisation, Societies and Education 8, No. 2, 235-45. 14 Making the Intangibles Tangible member of the Politburo and the vice-premier of the People’s Republic of China. Most agreements establishing Confucius Institutes feature nondisclosure clauses and unacceptable concessions to the political aims and practices of the government of China. Specifically, North American universities permit Confucius Institutes to advance a state agenda in the recruitment and control of academic staff, in the choice of curriculum, and 46 in the restriction of debate.” This brief example demonstrates the importance of taking into consideration the respective circumstances when assessing the perception of soft power instruments in different contexts. Soft Power Subunit 4: Outcomes The final subunit, i.e., soft power outcomes, depicted on the far right column in the illustration, is perhaps most difficult to grasp and examine among the proposed soft power subunits. Following the illustration, soft power resources, transmitted by soft power instruments (or – in the passive variety of soft power – through the inherent charisma of the resources alone) may create either attraction or repulsion. In the next step, this leads (in the case attraction is generated) to desired outcomes, i.e., Actor B acting in accord with Actor A. In the case repulsion is evoked, on the other hand, Actor B may oppose Actor A, who thus would have failed to effectively convert his soft power resources into desired outcomes. However, albeit this process of achieving desired outcomes through soft power may be convincingly illustrated on a theoretical level, it is far more difficult to trace and prove it in practice. Consider, for example, the following case. China, in accord with the plans laid out by President Hu Jintao in 2007, 46 American Association of University Professors, “On Partnerships with Foreign Governments: The Case of Confucius Institutes,” Prepared by the Association’s Committee A on Academic Freedom and Tenure in June 2014, http://www.aaup.org/file/Confucius_Institutes_0.pdf (accessed September 3, 2014). 15 Hendrik W. Ohnesorge seeks to globally “enhance culture as part of [Chinese] soft power.”47 To this purpose, China opens a Confucius Institute in an African city, say Nairobi. Within the first year a given number of students – for the sake of simplicity lets say one hundred – attend classes taught at the Institute. A subsequent survey among those who attended courses reveals that of those 100 students polled, 90 students state that they hold a positive image of China and are attracted by Chinese culture. Does this mean that China successfully wielded soft power? Unfortunately, it is not as simple as that. The first question that arises from this example is whether or not the attendance of classes in the Nairobi Confucius Institutes had any impact on the 90 students who stated that they hold a positive image of China. In other words – since power implies changing behaviors in others – did the attendance of courses change the students’ reception of Chinese culture or are those polled just stating their already previously existent attitude? This difficulty could quite easily be worked out by conducting pre-post comparisons among students before and after having attended classes thus allowing for an examination whether and to what extent attitudes have changed. The second question, however, is much harder to answer: How can we assess whether or not the high level of attested attraction among African attendees of classes at the Nairobi Confucius Institute results in desired outcomes, i.e., outcomes intended by the Chinese officials who initiated the Confucius Institute in Nairobi? Even assuming that the number of students who are culturally attracted to China after having visited the Confucius Institute has risen, do those Kenyan students (not to speak of Kenya as a state) now – to paraphrase Nye – want what China wants (e.g., support its policies regarding disputes in the South China Sea)? 47 Hu Jintao, “Hold High the Great Banner of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics and Strive for New Victories in Building a Moderately Prosperous Society in all,” Report to the Seventeenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China, October 15, 2007, http://www.china.org.cn/english/congress/229611.htm (accessed September 3, 2014). 16 Making the Intangibles Tangible This dilemma presents one of the harshest points of criticism regarding the entire concept of soft power. It becomes particularly glaring in contrast to hard or command power instruments and the outcomes such instruments can bring about: Invading a country and destroying a nuclear reactor by means of physical destruction directly results – if successful – in the desired outcomes, which is bringing to a halt a nation’s nuclear program. Trying to use soft power to influence the minds of said state’s officials and thus attracting them to want to end their nuclear program is far more difficult to achieve, if not impossible at all. Nye himself does not turn a blind eye on this observation. In fact, he argues that “[s]oft power is not the solution to all problems.”48 However, while he holds that “[s]oft power alone rarely solves hard problems” he argues that it “can create an enabling rather than an disabling environment for policy.”49 The creation of “an enabling environment” indicates the long-term character of soft power. Nye explicitly concedes that soft power instruments “sometimes take years to produce desired outcomes.”50 In the case of the nuclear program, for example, a nation may not have as long a time at its disposal and soft power may thus prove to be unsuitable to get the desired outcomes. Returning and applying these observations to the example of the Confucius Institute in Nairobi introduced above, however, one might argue that the probability of achieving desired outcomes in places where a country’s (cultural) attraction has been enhanced is – if anything – potentially increasing. Arguable, the causal chain between visiting a Confucius Institute and supporting Chinese foreign policy is considerably longer than it may regularly be the case in respect of hard power measures. Especially when considering the difference between the private capacities in which of those students attended classes and the governmental sphere in which foreign policy decision are generally made. However, at least – but not exclusively – in democratic governments, chains of legitimacy exist and public support for 48 49 50 Nye, Future of Power, xiii. Joseph S. Nye, Jr. “Good Start, Long Road,” The American Interest V, no. 3 (Winter 2010): 13. Nye, Soft Power, 99. 17 Hendrik W. Ohnesorge the politics pursued by the government does play a role, a role which with the advance of social media and other possibilities of participation is likely to further increase in the future. It may be a considerably protracted process but in some cases the students who had visited the Confucius Institute may find themselves in positions to influence their country’s foreign policy and in doing so, draw on knowledge about China conveyed at the Confucius Institute. In fact, the long-term character of soft power outcomes applies perfectly to the long-term policies regularly championed by the Chinese government. Finally, not least the fact that China as well as countless governments around the world, be they democratic or not, have in recent years stepped up their soft power efforts, indicates the (growing) importance nation states ascribe to this form of power and the positive outcomes they expect to draw from them. An examination of how certain soft power instruments can be turned into desired outcomes can only be conducted on a case-by-case basis, taking into account the respective points of departure and circumstances and requiring long-term analyses. This observation, as is the case with respective soft power instruments themselves, lays out the road for further research to be conducted with regard to this subunit as well. Discussion Soft power is among the most frequently and intensely discussed topics in International Relations today. The concept of soft power is not only deliberated extensively in academic publications but, as the brief empirical examples referred to above demonstrate, it has also become a major catchphrase for political programs as pursued by many countries around the globe. Soft power instruments, for example, applied by nation states to transmit their soft power resources to a global public have become an observable reality today and in today’s information age are likely to rather gain than dwindle in importance. This observation calls for more structured academic assessments and analyses than are hitherto frequently presented. Against this backdrop, the soft power subunits put forth in this paper (i.e., soft power resources, 18 Making the Intangibles Tangible instruments, perception, and outcomes) offer eligible points of departure for two main reasons. Firstly, the subunits help to deconstruct the often (too) broadly conceptualized term of soft power into qualitatively different categories and thus contribute to a sharpening of the concept of soft power from a theoretical perspective. The separation into different subunits thus helps to better understand the basic mechanisms of soft power and the interplay among its subunits as visualized by Illustration 1. Secondly, from a more practical perspective, the deconstruction of soft power into different subunits allows for a step-by-step analysis of empirically observable cases in which actors wield soft power. Thus, the proposed soft power subunits help to outline an agenda for further research in this still insufficiently chartered territory. For example, the proposed subunits can serve as a guideline to assess Chinese efforts to enhance national soft power by analyzing underlying resources, chosen instruments, identifiable perceptions and resulting outcomes of said efforts. By this means, empirical case studies on the success or failure of (national) soft power initiatives do not only become more structured and comparable but also allow for a more precise assessment of potential shifts in the global distribution of soft power. Therefore, by conducting a variety of case studies along the lines of the proposed soft power subunits, the question can be answered whether or to what extent a global soft power shift can be observed in international relations today. 19 Hendrik W. Ohnesorge References American Association of University Professors. “On Partnerships with Foreign Governments: The Case of Confucius Institutes.” Prepared by the Association’s Committee A on Academic Freedom and Tenure in June 2014, http://www.aaup.org/file/Confucius_Institutes_0.pdf (accessed September 3, 2014). Barnett, Michael and Raymond Duvall. “Power in International Politics.” International Organization 59, no. 1 (Winter 2005): 39-75. Grassi, Sergio. 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