the changing correlation of forces in politics in the united states

GU POLITICS FELLOW GROVER NORQUIST
Discussion Group Outline
THE CHANGING CORRELATION OF FORCES IN POLITICS
IN THE UNITED STATES
Week 1 — Bi-partisan compromise and the carrier pigeon
For many years following the Civil War, the Republican and Democrat parties were regional parties. A
Republican was born north of the Mason Dixon Line, full stop. The parties did not present a platform based
on coherent principles. During the lifetime of Ronald Reagan, that changed and the two parties are now
clearly unified entities.
Republicans works for more limited government and the Democrats have a more expansive view of the
legitimate powers of the state. In the 1950s, conservative Democrats and conservative Republicans would
debate liberal Republicans and liberal Democrats. All fights, all legislation, all losses and victories were
“bi-partisan.” Today, more votes are party line as many issues: taxes, spending, guns, divide along party as
well as ideological lines.
Why does it appear there are fewer compromises? Compromise only works if both parties are moving in the
same direction. Otherwise, every policy enacted is a win or loss for the principles of one party or the other.
How has this changed the working of the federal government? Good, Bad, Indifferent, Inevitable? Can,
should this change?
Week 2 — Two Parties each made up of many coalitions
Some nations have many parties and after the election they then form coalitions and one coalition puts
together a majority faction and it becomes the Parliamentary government.
In the United States, for historical and legal reasons, we have two parties capable of winning control of the
government and each is composed of many different coalition members.
Our coalitions are inside our parties. How does that change the nature of American politics? How easily are
new coalition members absorbed into each party? Can a coalition member switch teams? How do new
issues create different alignments.
Week 3 — Rock, Paper, Scissors: Federal, State and Local government
The Democratic party runs most large cities. Republicans run most states. The federal government has seen
power shift between the parties.
The federal government can impose its will on states. States can limit the powers of cities. Yet, ideas can
pass at the city level and move to the states. Or ideas can move from one state to another until the policy
becomes inevitable at the national level. Medical marijuana, term limits, welfare reform, criminal justice
reform have all moved from state to state and then to the national agenda.
American Politics today is three dimensional chess: Federal, State and Local. How has this changed how
policy is made in the US?
Week 4 — The Taxpayer Protection Pledge
A case study in branding one party as the party that will not raise taxes.
How did the Pledge come into being. How the pledge become the “Brand” of the modern Republican party.
Could this work with other issues for Republicans and/or democrats?
Is such branding healthy for politics, for running a country. Spoiler alert: Mr. Norquist created the Taxpayer
Protection Pledge.
Week 5 — Electing a new People: Demographics change through history and looking forward
German writer Berthold Brecht when asked how it was possible for East German worker to revolt against
the Communist (Workers) government explained that (since it could not be the fault of the government) it
would be necessary to “elect a new people.”
The electorate changes with different levels of immigration. Birthrates and longer life expectancy changes
the electorate. But “we” can change the electorate through laws. Today there are two million Americans
homeschooling. Thirty years ago that was a crime. Now Gay Americans self-identify and organize politically.
More or fewer government employees change the political make up of the electorate. What changes in
demographics are “baked into the cake:” such as aging. What changes flow from policy decisions. Today
there are 15 million Americans with concealed carry weapons permits—and how does that affect the politics
of the gun control debate.
Week 6 — Taxation: From the Boston Tea Party, the Tariff, the Sixteenth amendment and Supply Side
How tax issues have divided the nation, first from Britain and then East/West during the Whiskey Rebellion,
North/South over tariffs and now Republican Democrat. The Battle Royale between Obama and the
Republican in 2011 and 2012 and now the Trump Trillion(s) dollar Tax Cut. Who wins, who loses and why.
Week 7 — The Non-negotiables. Where Neither party can budget.
Republicans will NEVER regulate guns. Democrats will NEVER cross the Trial Lawyers or the Unions. Each
party has sacred cows that may turn out to be their key building blocks or White Elephants.​ ​How does an
issue or coalition member become indispensable. When does one parties fearsome weapon become an
anchor. And how to coalitions create or adapt to change.
Week 8 — The Fourth Dimension: The Courts
You can win the House, Senate and Governorship of a state—or the nation—and still lose on central policy
issues if the Courts are against you. What are the politics of winning control of and using the “non-political”
branch of government.