National inferences from regional indicators
Table 6.1 – Central Bank Index of Economic Activity
Brazil and regions1/
%
Itemization
2014
2015
Nov
Feb
Brazil
North
May
Aug
Nov
0.8
-1.1
-1.8
-1.7
-1.8
0.8
-0.2
-1.6
-1.1
-1.6
Northeast
0.9
-1.5
-0.2
-1.1
-1.6
Central-West
0.8
-0.3
-1.5
-0.8
-1.3
Southeast
0.6
-0.3
-1.4
-0.9
-1.3
South
2.4
-1.7
1.7
-5.9
-0.9
1/ Seasonally adjusted 3-month period/previous 3-month period % variation.
National result does not necessarily represent the average of regional results.
6
The maintenance of the Brazilian economic activity
on a downward trajectory is shown by the consecutive
IBC-Br declines during the year: in September-November,
the indicator dropped 1.8% against June-August (Table
6.1), according to seasonally adjusted data. In the period
under analysis, economic activity decelerated in all regions,
with emphasis on the declines of 1.6% in the IBCRs of
the Northeast and North, mainly reflecting the negative
performance of the sector of services and broad retail sales.
The IBCR’s of the Central-West and Southeast regions
dropped more moderately (both 1.3%), partially due to less
significant declines under the service sector and retail sales,
respectively.
Table 6.2 – Sales volume index
Brazil and regions1/
ão percentual
Percentage change
Itemization
2014
2015
Nov
Feb
May
Aug
Nov
Retail sector
Brazil
North
1.9
-1.7
-2.2
-2.6
-0.4
4.9
-4.9
-1.2
-3.6
-0.9
Northeast
2.3
-3.5
-2.3
-3.5
-1.1
Central-West
2.5
-4.6
-2.5
-1.6
-1.8
Southeast
1.0
-0.8
-2.4
-1.6
0.1
South
1.8
-1.3
-1.7
-2.8
-2.1
Broad trade
Brazil
North
2.7
-3.1
-4.0
-2.9
-2.9
5.1
-6.4
-2.8
-4.7
-3.1
Northeast
3.5
-4.8
-3.7
-3.9
-4.1
Central-West
3.0
-6.2
-4.2
-3.1
-5.2
Southeast
1.4
-2.2
-3.5
-1.6
-1.8
South
5.3
-5.3
-4.4
-4.6
-3.2
Sources: IBGE and BCB
1/ Seasonally adjusted 3-month period/previous 3-month period % variation.
Broad retail sales fell by 2.9% in SeptemberNovember over June-August, when they had decreased
at the same rate over March-May, according to seasonally
adjusted data (Table 6.2). This trajectory reflected declines in
all regions, especially in the Central-West (5.2%), Northeast
(4.1%) and South (3.2%). The slowdown in the Central-West
region was partially conditioned by significant falloffs under
the sales of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and spares (14.6%)
and construction materials (7.3%) in the Federal District and
Goiás, the only federation units in the region for which data
are disclosed by activity sector.
Retail sales, excluding sales of automotive vehicles
and civil construction materials, fell by 0.4% in the country
in the period under analysis. The less significant decline
as compared with broad retail sales mostly reflected the
expansion of 0.1% in the Southeast region, driven by an
increase of 2.8% in the sales of furniture and household
appliances.
The volume of services fell by 5.6% in SeptemberNovember as compared with the same period in 2014, with
declines in all regions (Table 6.3), highlighting the Northeast
(8.1%), where the segment of professional, administrative
and complementary services dropped by 14.4%. The
January 2016
|
Boletim Regional do Banco Central do Brasil
| 1
Table 6.3 – Services volume
Brazil and regions1/
%
Itemization
2014
2015
Nov
Feb
Brazil
North
May
Aug
Nov
2.0
-2.0
-1.2
-3.3
-5.6
1.5
-3.7
-2.8
-2.8
-6.3
Northeast
3.4
-0.9
-2.5
-5.9
-8.1
Central-West
3.0
-3.6
-4.3
-1.2
-1.0
Southeast
1.7
-1.9
-0.3
-3.2
-5.7
South
2.3
-2.4
-3.6
-3.2
-5.5
Sources: IBGE and BCB
1/ 3-month period/previous year 3-month period % variation.
Table 6.4 – Financial system credit operations1/
November 2015
R$ billion
Balance
C
% growth
3/
2/
Total
I
3 months
C
Brazil
1 629 1 472 3 101
Central-West
Southeast
South
3/
12 months
Total
I
C
2/
3/
I
Total
1.2 1.5 1.3
6.9
8.3
7.6
47
71
118
0.4 1.6 1.1
0.3 10.1
6.0
169
231
399
-1.1 1.7 0.5
0.8 10.6
6.2
141
186
327
0.9 1.9 1.4
7.6 10.8
9.4
689 1 708
2.1 1.1 1.7
10.1
6.9
8.8
-0.2 1.9 0.9
0.3
7.8
4.2
North
Northeast
2/
1 019
253
296
550
1/ Credit operations over R$1,000.00
2/ Corporations.
3/ Individuals.
Table 6.5 – Financial system default rate1/
November 2015
Default rate
C
2/
3/
I
Growth in p.p.
Total 3 months
C
Brazil
2/
12 months
3/
I
Total
C
2/
I
3/
Total
2.5
3.9
3.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.3
0.5
North
4.1
4.6
4.4
-0.7
0.2
-0.1
1.6
0.1
0.8
Northeast
3.7
4.8
4.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
1.2
0.4
0.8
Central-West
2.8
3.4
3.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.8
0.5
0.6
Southeast
2.0
4.1
2.9
-0.0
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
South
3.2
3.0
3.1
0.4
0.2
0.3
1.0
0.4
0.7
1/ Credit operations over R$1,000.00 with at least one overdue installment
exceeding 90 days.
2/ Corporations.
3/ Individuals.
Table 6.6 – Formal jobs creation1/
Thousand
Itemization
Brazil
2014
2015
Nov
Feb
101.9
May
Aug
Nov
-639.7 -194.1 -355.6 -395.4
North
-3.4
-46.9
-22.5
-12.4
Northeast
82.8
-110.6
-98.4
-42.9
-7.5
Central-West
-18.0
-57.8
3.9
-5.3
-48.5
Southeast
-11.2
-355.6
51.7
-68.9
South
-35.6
-66.1 -191.4 -244.9
-11.0 -103.6
-58.9
Source: MTPS
1/ Refers to the 3-month period ending in the specified month.
2 |
Boletim Regional do Banco Central do Brasil
|
January 2016
lowest decline was observed in the Central-West, partially
reflecting the expansion of 5.0% in the volume of services on
transportation, mailing and touristic activities in the Federal
District and in the state of Goiás.
The balance of credit operations above R$1
thousand added up R$3,101.0 billion in November, rising
1.3% in September-November over June-August and 7.6%
in the 12-month period (Table 6.4). The performance in
the September-November period was partially conditioned
by expansions observed in the Southeast (1.7%) and in
the Central-West (1.4%). In the same comparison basis,
the household portfolio grew by 1.5%, with emphasis on
expansions of 1.9% in the South and in the Central-West,
fueled, in both regions, by rural and house financing credit
modalities. The corporate portfolio increased by 1.2% in
September-November over June-August, highlighting the
growth of 2.1% in the Southeast, propelled by rural and
export financing credit modalities, and the decline of 1.1%
in the Northeast, especially reflecting the decrease of 2.7% in
the balance of credit operations targeted to the manufacturing
industry.
The default rate of credit operations above R$1
thousand came to 3.2% in November (Table 6.5), with
expansions of 0.2 p.p. in the September-November period
and 0.5 p.p. in 12-months. The rise in September-November
over June-August reflected increases of 0.1 p.p. in the
corporate segment (0.4 p.p. in the Northeast and in the
South) and 0.2 p.p. in the household segment (0.3 p.p. in the
Northeast), reaching respective default rates, in the country
as a whole, of 2.5% and 3.9% in the period.
The process of distension in the labor market
continued in the September-November period, with the
loss of 395.4 thousand formal jobs, against net gain of
101.9 thousand jobs in the same period in 2014. Formal job
losses were observed in all Brazilian regions (Table 6.6),
with emphasis on the Southeast region, especially in the
manufacturing industry (88.4 thousand), civil construction
(63.4 thousand) and services (62.3 thousand), which
accounted for 61.9% of the country’s total. It should also be
highlighted the labor market trajectory in the Northeast, with
the loss of 7.5 thousand jobs, as opposed to the opening of
82.8 thousand jobs in September-November 2014.
The adverse labor market scenario is ratified by the
trajectory of the unemployment rate according to the IBGE’s
PME, which closed at 7.7% in September-November, 2.9
p.p. higher than in the same period of 2014 (Table 6.7).
Table 6.7 – Unemployment rate
%
1/
Itemization
2014
2015
Nov
Feb
Brazil
May
Aug
Nov
4.8
5.2
6.4
7.3
7.7
Northeast
8.2
8.1
10.0
10.8
11.6
Southeast
4.1
4.7
5.8
6.8
6.9
South
4.6
4.0
5.2
5.9
6.6
Source: IBGE
1/ Refers to the 3-month period ending in the specified month.
Table 6.8 – States and municipalities
borrowing requirements1/
R$ million
Primary result
Region
2014
2015
Jan-Sep
Jan-Sep
North
- 190
- 592
Northeast
-1 285
-4 060
Central-West
-1 417
-3 396
Southeast
-4 139
-11 665
South
-2 275
-1 477
Total
-9 306
-21 190
1/ Includes information about the states and their major municipalities.
(-) superavit (+) deficit
Table 6.9 – Estimated annual grain production1/
Brazil and regions
Million tons
Itemization
2/
Participation
3/
2014
Brazil
Percentage change
Production
2015
2015/2014
100.0
194.6
209.5
7.7
3.6
6.3
7.7
22.1
Northeast
10.4
15.8
16.6
5.4
Central-West
39.4
83.0
89.9
8.3
8.8
18.4
19.3
5.0
37.8
71.0
76.0
7.0
North
Southeast
South
Unemployment increased in all regions covered by the
survey in the period: Northeast (3.4 p.p.); Southeast (2.8
p.p.) and South (2.0 p.p.).
Source: IBGE
The primary surplus of states, state capitals and
major municipalities of the country added up R$21.2 billion
in the first nine months of the year, up 127.7% from the
same period in 2014 (Table 6.8). It should be highlighted
the 181.8% growth in the surplus of the Southeast region,
reflecting the reversal from a deficit of R$1.1 billion to a
surplus of R$8.1 billion in the sphere of state governments,
and the decline of 35.1% in the South’s surplus, with
emphasis on the reversal from a surplus of R$1.2 billion to a
deficit of R$685 million in the result of other municipalities.
The country’s crop of grains reached 210 million
tons in 2015, according to the IBGE’s LSPA of December
(Table 6.9), expanding 7.7% in the year. Agricultural
production increased in all regions, especially in the North
(22.1%), where the crop of corn grew by 38.2%, and in the
Central-West (8.3%), with expansions in the region’s major
crops. The more modest performance of the Northeast, with
annual expansion of 5.4%, especially reflected the impact of
adverse weather conditions on the crop of corn.
The country’s industrial output fell by 4.2%
in September-November over June-August, the fourth
consecutive decline in this comparison basis, according
to seasonally adjusted data (Table 6.10). Declines were
observed in all regions, except in the North, where the
impact of the expansion of 6.6% in the mining segment
more than offset the decline of 7.5% in the manufacturing
industry, which reflected the sluggish activity in the Manaus
industrial pole.
The negative performance of the industrial sector
was more significant in the Southeast – with declines
under the mining and manufacturing segments, especially
automobiles, tows and bodies (11.9%) – and in the Northeast.
1/ Cereals, leguminous and oil seeds.
2/ Percentage of the national production value of cereals, leguminous and oil
seeds, according to PAM 2014.
3/ Estimated according to LSPA December 2015.
Table 6.10– Industrial production
Brazil and regions1/
%
Itemization
Brazil
2/
Participation 2014
2015
Nov
Feb
May
Aug
Nov
100.0
0.2
-2.8
-2.5
-2.7
North
5.9
0.3
0.5
-2.7
-2.7
0.2
Northeast
9.5
2.8
-4.1
3.3
-0.3
-4.1
Central-West
-4.2
3.5
1.5
-5.2
0.7
3.4
-0.9
Southeast
62.7
-1.2
-3.7
-2.1
-2.7
-4.2
South
18.5
3.2
-6.5
-1.5
-3.2
-3.1
Source: IBGE and BCB
1/ Seasonally adjusted 3-month period/previous 3-month period % variation.
2/ Percentage of the Cost of Industrial Transformation (VTI) in 2010.
The trade balance accumulated a surplus of US$19.7
billion in 2015, against a deficit of US$4 billion in 2014. This
reversal reflected a more significant decline under imports
(20.3%) than exports (16.8%), in line with the exchange
devaluation and the slowdown of the Brazilian economic
activity in the year (Table 6.11), basically reflecting the
trade balance trajectories of the Northeast, Southeast and
South. It should be highlighted the trade balance variation
observed in the South, with emphasis on the 27.3% decline
of exports, spread across all use categories.
January 2016
|
Boletim Regional do Banco Central do Brasil
| 3
Table 6.11 – Regional trade balance – FOB
January-December
US$ million
Region
Exports
2014
Total
225.1
Imports
2015
2014
191.1
229.1
Balance
2015
2014
171.5
-4.0
2015
19.7
North
17.6
13.2
14.9
10.6
2.7
2.6
Northeast
15.9
14.7
28.7
21.4
-12.8
-6.8
Central-West
Southeast
South
27.4
24.0
12.7
9.3
14.7
14.7
116.1
94.4
124.4
94.8
-8.3
-0.4
44.0
40.1
48.3
35.1
-4.2
5.0
4.1
4.8
0.2
0.2
3.9
4.6
1/
Others
Source: MDIC/Secex
1/ Refer to operation not categorized regionally.
Table 6.12 – IPCA
3-month change1/
%
Itemization
Weighting 2014
factor
2015
Dec
Mar
100.0
1.72
4.2
2.06
14.8
1.33
Jun
Sep
Dec
3.83 2.26
1.39
2.82
2.69 2.80
0.38
3.76
3.26 2.75
1.03
2.88
IPCA
Brazil
North
Northeast
Central-West
7.1
2.57
3.53 1.73
1.42
3.34
Southeast
57.6
1.68
4.06 2.01
1.44
2.68
South
16.3
1.76
4.13 2.73
1.78
2.74
Market prices
Brazil
1.77
2.47 1.98
1.06
2.74
North
2.53
1.93 2.33
0.08
3.74
Northeast
1.41
2.68 2.23
0.99
3.04
Central-West
2.55
1.91 1.93
0.75
3.05
Southeast
1.74
2.50 1.75
1.04
2.58
South
1.71
2.62 2.44
1.56
2.64
Regulated prices
Brazil
1.54
8.45 3.15
2.43
3.04
North
0.34
5.59 4.50
1.45
3.81
Northeast
1.02
5.44 4.68
0.29
0.21
Central-West
2.62
8.98 1.09
3.53
4.23
Southeast
1.49
9.11 2.81
2.65
2.97
South
1.93
9.39 3.69
2.49
3.06
Source: IBGE and BCB
1/ Refers to the 3-month period ending in the specified month.
4 |
Boletim Regional do Banco Central do Brasil
|
The variation of the Brazilian IPCA, released by the
IBGE, closed at 2.82% in the fourth quarter of 2015 (1.39%
in the third quarter), consequent upon acceleration of market
and regulated prices. Price variations increased in all regions,
ranging from 2.68% in the Southeast to 3.76% in the North.
January 2016
In short, the Brazilian economic activity slowdown
persisted during the final months of 2015. In this scenario,
strongly conditioned by economic agents’ low confidence
levels, it should be stressed the negative trajectories of
industry, retail sales and services, with significant impacts on
the labor market and consumers’ real income. The recovery
of economic activity basically depends on the reversal of
consumers and entrepreneur’s confidence, a perspective
that should be further enhanced by the macroeconomic
adjustment process underway in the country. Furthermore,
the ongoing exchange devaluation process tends to continue
benefitting those regions more dependent on the foreign
trade.