Assessment of global megatrends
Key drivers and uncertainties
The key drivers of intensifying competition for resources are
continuing economic growth and related growth in numbers of
middle-income consumers. Depleting resources and changing
geographical patterns of demand and supply influence access to key
resources. Technological innovation will boost demand for certain
minerals and metals not widely used before (such as lithium and rare
earths metals). Efforts to expand the membership of trade agreements
and other forms of economic integration may be important to alleviate
competition over resources.
Major uncertainties include the continuation and global pattern of
economic growth, the future direction and application of technological
innovations such as the NBIC technology cluster and changing
demand for certain resources. On the supply side, new reserves
may be found. Some reserves may be too costly to exploit, however,
because of environmental considerations (e.g. in the Arctic). Global
progress in environmental agreements (e.g. on strict preservation
of the Arctic environment) could exclude or reduce the availability
of such resources. Geopolitical instability may hamper new trade
agreements and other pacts that smooth international trade and
reduce resource competition.
Decreasing stocks of natural resources
8 Decreasing stocks of natural
resources
A larger and richer global population with expanding consumption
needs will place growing demands on natural systems for food,
water and energy. European resource stocks may likewise face
increasing pressures.
Growing human demand for natural resources, driven by continuous
population growth and increasing individual consumption, has
resulted in large-scale land conversion (deforestation, cultivation and
urbanisation) and loss of biodiversity (MA, 2005). While biodiversity
loss could be regarded as a megatrend in its own right, it is included
here because land conversion and loss of natural ecosystems are
central to changes in biodiversity. Humans have converted about
a quarter of the Earth's potential net primary production (5), either
through direct cropping (53 %), land-use-induced productivity
changes (40 %) or human-induced fires (7 %). As shown in Map 8.l,
the combined impact on natural ecosystems is biggest in North
America, Europe and south-east Asia (Haberl et al., 2007).
Deforestation is occurring on an alarming scale, particularly in
the tropics. The net area lost annually has decreased substantially,
however, from approximately 83 000 km2 per year in the 1990s to just
over 50 000 km2 per year from 2000–2010. The historical large-scale
forest loss in temperate regions has come halted and forest cover there
is slowly increasing again with a net gain of 30 000 km2 in the period
1990–2005. Projections of forest cover by 2050 vary considerably
depending on the underlying assumptions, but most studies indicate
further overall decline (FAO, 2010; Leadley et al., 2010).
The significant growth of the world's population in coming decades
and the shift in diets from cereals to meat as wealth increases may
cause demand for agricultural production to rise steeply. According
(5) Primary production is the production of organic compounds from atmospheric or
aquatic carbon dioxide, mainly through photosynthesis.
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Assessment of global megatrends
Map 8.1
Decreasing stocks of natural resources
to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO),
demand for food, feed and fibres could grow by 70 % by 2050
(FAO, 2009).
Human use of terrestrial ecosystems
This growth in demand for agricultural output would have
considerable implications for land use and natural ecosystems.
A projected population increase of 27 % and a wealth increase of
83 % by 2030 would imply a demand for agricultural production
that is 50 % higher than today's. Even if agricultural productivity
increases at current rates, it would be necessary to expand the global
agricultural area by roughly 10 % to meet demand (PBL, 2008;
OECD, 2008, see also Figure 8.1).
0
2000
4000
Unsustainable management practices, however, may in the long run
jeopardise productivity. Deforestation and improper agricultural
management have already led to large-scale soil degradation.
A common problem is soil erosion by surface water runoff, which
ultimately reduces food production capacity (Map 8.2). Areas with
high water erosion sensitivity are projected to increase by more
than one third to some 27 million km2 in 2030, nearly one fifth of the
world's land area. The most impacted regions are in China, India,
Africa, the USA and South America (OECD, 2008; PBL, 2008).
6000 km
Global human appropriation of potential net primary production (NPP0)
(a)
da
ta
00
0
o
N
80
–1
0
–8
70
0
–6
0
–5
0
–4
–7
60
50
40
0
–3
30
0
20
10
–2
10
0–
0
0
)
–
50
)
50
(–
10
0)
–
(–
10
(–
–
(–
(–
20
0)
<
(–
20
0)
0)
% of NPP0
Note:(a) Primary production is the production of organic compounds from
atmospheric or aquatic carbon dioxide, mainly through photosynthesis.
This maps shows human appropriation of net primary production
(HANPP) as a percentage of potential net primary production (NPP).
HANNP can be calculated in different ways, depending on the reference
value for primary production. For estimating the impact on natural
ecosystems, this can be related to an estimated primary production of
the potential natural vegetation. In this definition, HANPP also takes
changes in primary production resulting from land conversion into
account.
Overexploitation of natural resources and associated land use change
ultimately leads to ecosystem degradation and loss of biodiversity.
Habitat loss and species declines are projected to occur in most
regions, most notably in the tropics (Figures 8.2 and 8.3).
As for the marine environment, a recent study shows that 40 % of the
world's oceans are severely affected by human activities (WWF, 2008).
About 80 % of the world's marine fish stocks for which information is
available are fully exploited or overexploited (CBD, 2010).
Source: Haberl et al., 2007.
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Assessment of global megatrends
Decreasing stocks of natural resources
Figure 8.1 Changing area of farmland
Figure 8.2 Loss of species diversity in the world biomes
Million square kilometres
Mean species abundance
Projections
60
(a)
Baseline
projection
(%)
100
Biofuel crops
80
50
60
Forest
40
40
Food crops
20
30
0
20
Potential
1700
1800
1900
2000
2050
Tropical grassland and savanna
Temperate grassland and steppe
10
Grass and fodder
Tropical rain forest
Tropical dry forest
0
1980
Mediterranean forest, woodland and shrub
2005
2030
Temperate broadleaf and mixed forest
Temperate coniferous forest
Source: OECD, 2008.
Boreal forest
Tundra
Map 8.2
Water erosion risk
Desert
Polar
Note:
Baseline projection to 2030
(a)
Mean species abundance (MSA) is an indicator of biodiversity.
Combining the extent of ecosystems and abundance of selected
species, it reflects the state of impacted ecosystems, compared
with their pristine, unimpacted state. As such it indicates how natural
an ecosystem is.
Source: PBL, 2008.
Low or no risk
Moderate risk
High risk
Source: PBL, 2008.
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Assessment of global megatrends
Decreasing stocks of natural resources
Figure 8.3 Conversion of regional ecosystems (biomes)
Box 8.1 Why is depletion of natural resources important for
Europe?
Fraction of potential area converted
+ 10
0
– 10
– 20
– 30
– 40
– 50
(a)
– 60
– 70
– 80 %
Mediterranean forest,
woodland and scrub
Temperate forest
steppe and woodland
Temperate broadleaf
and mixed forest
Tropical and sub-tropical
dry broadleaf forest
In general, the loss of natural ecosystems and soil degradation damage a
wide range of ecosystem services, including cycling carbon and water, and
providing food and fibres. Food and water security is clearly a key concern
here. The fragility of global food systems has already become apparent
over recent years. Driven by recurring food and economic crises throughout
2006–2009, the number of undernourished people rose to more than one
billion in 2009. The proportion of undernourished in developing countries,
which was previously declining, has also risen in the past few years
(FAO, 2009). Ultimately these trends may lead to regional conflicts and
social instability.
Potential impacts on Europe include changes in the abundance of species,
climate change, increased demand for and depletion of domestic resources
(such as food and timber), and environment-induced immigration from
developing countries.
Flooded grassland
and savanna
Tropical and sub-tropical
grassland and savanna
and shrubland
Tropical and sub-tropical
coniferous forest
Key drivers and uncertainties
Desert
More people, with greater affluence and more meat in their diets,
will increase demand for agricultural production. Expansion of
agricultural land is therefore likely but its extent is uncertain as it
depends on population and economic growth, diet changes and
technological advancement. The responses of species and ecosystems
to further land conversion and intensified land use are still unknown
but soil degradation and ecosystem collapses can significantly and
irreversibly reduce natural production capacity.
Montae grassland
and shrubland
Tropical and sub-tropical
moist broadleaf forest
Temperate
coniferous forest
Boreal forest
Tundra
Loss by 1950
Projected loss (or gain)
between 1990 and 2050
Note:
Loss between 1950 and 1990
(b)
Range of values from
the 4 MA scenarios
(a) The extent of different regional ecosystems (or biomes), prior to
significant human impact, cannot be estimated, but the potential area
of biomes can be determined on the basis of soil and climatic
conditions.
(b) According to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) scenarios.
For the 2050 projections the average value of the projections under the
four scenarios was plotted; the error bars (black lines) represent the
range of values from the various scenarios.
Source: MA, 2005.
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