The scramble for Africa's
food security
Food and nutrition trends in the
Sub-Saharan economic powerhouses
Julian May
University of the Western Cape
Trilemmas
Global food security
1200
1000
Billion
800
600
400
200
0
1990-92
2000-2002
2005-07
2010-2012 2014-2016
880 million people undernourished, 2 billion people affected by micronutrient
deficiencies, 1.4 billion adults are overweight. The age-standardised percentage of obese
individuals doubled between 1980 and 2008.
(Committee on World Food Security 1996, 2012; FAO, IFAD and WFP. 2015)
Continental powerhouses
Demographic inflection point?
1 200 000
1 000 000
Population
800 000
Africa
600 000
Africa 14
400 000
200 000
0
Total pop 2015 '000
Under 5 pop
Total Urban Pop
Economic Growth Rate
Nearly three quarters of African countries rely on three commodities for
50% or more of their export earnings (Taylor, 2016).
8 000.0
Uganda
7 000.0
Côte d'Ivoire
Cameroon
6 000.0
Libya
GNI PPP$ (2011) Billion
Ghana
Tunisia
5 000.0
United Republic of Tanzania
Kenya
4 000.0
Ethiopia
Sudan
Morocco
3 000.0
Algeria
2000
2 000.0
South Africa
Egypt
Nigeria
2015
1 000.0
0.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Urbanisation
In Kinshasa, Africa’s
newest mega-city, 81%
of the urban population
lack access to improved
drinking water while up
to 90% of the natural
springs in the city are
thought to be
contaminated
Child Under-nutrition
Rising middle class
About 327-355 million
people earn between $2$20 per day in 2010, or
34% of the population
7 out of 10 of the world’s
most unequal countries
are in Africa
Economic Integration
South Africa’s largest food
chain, Shoprite Holdings had
over 1 100 supermarkets in
June, 2015, 189 of which are
located in 14 countries other
than South Africa
Infrastructure
Water
Of the 6 million ha. presently
equipped for irrigation in SSA
from large scale schemes,
approximately 1 million ha.
were in need of rehabilitation
in 2008
Some 23 million ha. of land
lying within 5hours’ trucking
time from a large city could be
profitably irrigated under
small-scale schemes
Disease
14 million adults aged 2079 have diabetes,
representing a regional
prevalence of 2.1-6.7%.
The region has the highest
proportion of undiagnosed
diabetes with over two
thirds of those living with
diabetes are unaware they
have the disease.
Africa has the highest rate
of diarrhea in the world at
1.29 cases, compared to
the global average of 0.75
Food Deficits
600
Depth of the food deficit 2015
500
Zambia
400
Swaziland
300
200
Cote d’Ivoire
Namibia
100
0
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
GNI per Capita (PPP$, 2011)
10 000
12 000
14 000
Nutrition transition
80
70
60
Prevalence (%)
50
Adult fem. overweight
40
30
20
Under 5 stunting
10
0
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
GNI per Capita (PPP$, 2011)
10 000
12 000
14 000
Imports of staples
30.00
25.00
The value of agricultural imports
to Africa increased by 62%
between 2007 and 2011
20.00
Wheat
15.00
Rice
10.00
5.00
0.00
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Drivers of change
• Population growth & changing demographic
structure
• Climate change/variability
• Urbanisation
• Nutrition & epidemiological transitions
• Economic integration, cross-border trader & regional
direct investment
• Accountability, rights & duty
• Access to information, communication & knowledge
Possible collaborative projects
• Nutrition specific interventions
–
–
–
–
–
Community based management of malnutrition
Fortification & supplementation interventions
Therapeutic feeding of severely malnourished children
Smart agriculture
Smart nutrition
• Nutrition sensitive interventions
–
–
–
–
–
–
Fiscal & other national regulatory management of the food system
Sub-national management of the food system
Improving the reach & impact of the public plate
Social Protection for food security
Post-harvest management
Safe water and sanitation, & hygiene education.
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