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5-1-1995
The relevance of NATO's role in the post Cold War
era: a content analysis of NATO's involvement in
aggressive confrontations, 1950-1993
Sergio A. Rozzelle
Clark Atlanta University
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ABSTRACT
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
ROZZELLE,
THE
SERGIO A.
B.S.
AND
DEVELOPMENT
LINCOLN UNIVERSITY,
PA
1991
RELEVANCE OF NATO's ROLE IN THE POST COLD WAR ERA:
A CONTENT ANALYSIS OF AGGRESSIVE CONFRONTATIONS
1950-1993
Advisor:
Dr.
Hashim Gibrill
Thesis dated May,
This thesis
1995
addresses the issue of the relevance of the
North Atlantic Treaty organization (NATO)
era.
the
It has been argued that due to the end of the Cold War,
diminished
communism,
content
NATO's
threat
of
NATO may no
analysis
Yearbook"
from
in the Post Cold War
was
of
a
nuclear
longer be
to
examine
involvement
in
4335
to
the
and
relevant
information
done
1949
a
war,
in
the
fall
of
institution.
A
"Facts
variables
critical
the
on
File
associated with
international
incidents
1993.
The research measures NATO's involvement in international
events during and after the Cold War.
As a content analysis,
this
NATO's
study
aggressive
provides
an
overview
confrontations
from
of
1950
to
involvement
1993.
The
in
research
found that NATO was involved in a substantial amount of nonCold
War,
conflicts,
non-nuclear
thus
leading
threat
us
to
and
non-Communist
conclude
that
threat
NATO will
be
a
relevant institution in the Post Cold War era.
The
examination
of
the
factors
participation in world events,
associated
gives useful
with
NATO's
feedback on its
2
impact, provides a basis for measuring NATO's relevance in the
Post
of
Cold War era and is
international
International
a general
conflict
Affairs.
contribution to the study
management
and
the
field
of
THE RELEVANCE OF NATO'S ROLE
A
CONTENT ANALYSIS
AGGRESSIVE
IN
OF NATO'S
POST
COLD WAR ERA:
INVOLVEMENT
CONFRONTATIONS,
A
SUBMITTED TO THE
IN THE
1950-1993.
THESIS
FACULTY
OF
CLARK ATLANTA UNIVERSITY
PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS
THE
IN
DEGREE OF MASTER OF
FOR
ARTS
BY
SERGIO A.
ROZZELLE
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS AND DEVELOPMENT
ATLANTA,
MAY
v
GEORGIA
1995
PROGRAM
(c) 1995
Sergio A. Rozzelle
All Rights Reserved
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I
first
give praise
acknowledge
Dr.
Kwaku
to
the
Danso,
almighty God.
Chairman,
I
whose
wish
to
patience,
direction and assistance in locating the financial resources
necessary for the completion of this thesis, was instrumental
throughout
guidance
this
and
development
prompt
of
consultation,
study;
this
Dr.
Daniel
Lockwood
response
was
vital
in
thesis;
Dr.
Hashim
whose
the
Gibrill
help,
idea
and
for
his
concern and attention given to this thesis;
Ms. Ellen Hopkins, Ms. Alanna Jackson and Ms. Anna Harris for
their help in coding and continued assistance when the going
was rough; Ms. Ruth Eley, Ms Tejan Muata and to many others in
the International Affairs and Development Program,
Arts
and
Sciences,
who
have
been
of
School of
considerable
help
throughout this endeavor.
My very special thanks goes to Ms. Margaret Rozzelle,
my
loving mother and inspiration,
who has stood behind me with
confidence
Amy
and
support;
Ms.
Auld
for
her
words
and
letters of encouragement; my colleagues and friends,
Mr.
me
Daniel Mushala and Ms.
along
the
way;
friends and family,
and
Linda George,
lastly,
but
who have encouraged
certainly
not
who never doubted my ability.
11
least,
my
TABLE
OF
CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ii
LIST OF TABLES
v
Chapter
1.
INTRODUCTION AND STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
1
2.
LITERATURE REVIEW
5
3.
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF NATO
13
The United States on Alliances
The Importance of the United States to the
Alliance
15
17
The Diminishing Threat of Nuclear War
19
The Cold War
25
Research Question
28
4. METHODOLOGY
30
Quantitative Studies in
Confrontation
International
Quantitative Studies of Confrontation from
Social Psychology
32
35
Sampling
36
Measuring and Coding
39
Definitions of Themes
Data Collection
Data Analysis
(Categories)
41
42
.
42
Findings
43
m
PART
TWO
Chapter
5.
CONCLUSIONS
47
BIBLIOGRAPHY
49
iv
LIST OF
TABLES
Table
1.
2.
Page
Number of Critical
NATO by year
Incidents
Test List of Manifest
Involving
38
Content
Indicators
for Confrontations
3.
4.
Frequency Distribution of NATO's Involvement
in Non-Cold War Confrontations
43
Frequency Distribution of NATO's Involvement
in Confrontations Where Nuclear War was
not a Threat
5.
39
44
Frequency Distribution of NATO's Involvement
in Confrontations Where Communist Control
was a Threat
45
CHAPTER
INTRODUCTION AND
The
purpose
of
this
1
STATEMENT
thesis
is
OF
to
THE
PROBLEM
address
NATO's relevance in the Post Cold War era.
the
issue
of
The researcher set
out to address the issue of NATO's practicality by discussing
its purpose at
to
the
role
its
of
inception,
the
United
States,
analysis of NATO's involvement
1993.
and
by
doing
in confrontations
a
content
from
1950 to
A content analysis of information in the Facts On File
Yearbook
was
examined
associated with NATO's
the
with particular attention paid
study
examines
to
the
variables
involvement in these events.
Finally,
the
measure
question
and
of
relate
NATO's
relevance
in
the
Post Cold War era.
Reviewing the role of NATO during the Cold War and in the
beginning
question
of
of
the
its
Post
Cold War
relevance
in
era
the
will
help
future.
to
answer
Examining
the
NATO's
activity or inactivity during various conditions of the Cold
War and the Post Cold War,
as
to
NATO's
response
allows
and
role
the
researcher to
toward
future
speculate
events,
thus
determining its relevance.
Such an examination of the
participation in world events,
factors associated with NATO
gives useful
feedback on its
2
impact,
provides a basis for measuring NATO's relevance in the
Post Cold War era and
of
international
is a general contribution to the
conflict
management
and
the
study
field
of
international affairs.
The destruction of the Berlin Wall
the Cold War.
The Berlin Wall was the child of the
as were NATO and the Warsaw Pact.
to
pass
as
symbolized the end of
a
result
of the
Cold War,
Since these monuments came
Cold War,
could the crumbling of
the wall be seen as a direct cry for an end to the Cold War,
along with NATO and the Warsaw Pact?
Stanglin and Pete wrote
in reference to the crumbling wall:
East
Germany's
throw open the
forces
desperate
decision
last week to
Berlin Wall has unleashed pent up
for the reunification of Germany,
calling
and an end to NATO and the Warsaw Pact.1
With
the
Cold
War
over,
which
military threat from the East,
meant
the
treaty
August
signed
24,
on
1949.2
April
In this
4,
1949,
and
treaty,
the
nations of Europe,
The United Kingdom,
Norway,
The
Belgium,
of
a
is there a need for NATO?
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization
by
evaporation
Netherlands,
(NATO)
put
was created
into
effect
original
France,
signatory
Italy,
Luxembourg,
on
Denmark,
Iceland
and
Portugal were joined by two North American nations,
the United
States
collective
and
Canada,
to
form
an
agreement
1Douglas Stanglin and Ross Pete,
Order,"
s.v.
U.S.
News and World Report,
for
"The Death of the Old
20 November
2The World Almanac And Book of Facts 1994f
"North Atlantic Treaty Organization
1989,
20.
1993 ed.,
(NATO)."
3
regional self-defense for Western Europe,
the Mediterranean as far as Turkey,
the United States and Canada.3
after
World
democracy
War
II,
in Eastern
the
and - across the Atlantic-
As Western Europe lay in ruin
Soviet
Europe
the northern rim of
and the
Union's
physical
West represented by its blockade of Berlin
as
a
threat
to
signatories.4
the
shared
subversions
threat
in 1948,
democratic
to
of
the
was seen
values
of
the
This atmosphere stimulated the Western European
allies in 1948 to form the Western European Union and to join
the United States and Canada in creating NATO.5
this organization,
In forming
the members agreed to:
settle disputes by peaceful means; to develop their
individual and collective capacity to resist armed
attack; to regard an attack on one as an attack on
all;
and to take necessary action to repel an
attack under Article
51
of the United Nations
Charter.6
Greece and Turkey joined in 1952,
of Germany in 1955,
Atlantic
Treaty
The Federal Republic
and Spain in 1982.7
Organization
was
made
By 1993,
up
of
a
The North
total
of
16
signatory nations.
It
has been
argued that
for the past
forty-five
years,
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has been a peacekeeping
3John A.
at
40,"
Baker,
Social
"The North Atlantic Treaty Organization
Educationr
53
(February
1989):
109.
4Ibid.
5Ibid.
6The World Almanac And Book of Facts 1994,
7Baker,
109.
"NATO."
4
mechanism in the world arena.
Some contend that it has helped
to prevent the "Free World" of capitalism
the
"Iron Curtain"
four
years,
have
challenged
Due
to
the
of communism.
dramatic
end
the
of
changes
role
the
in
of NATO
Cold War,
from
However,
the
as
the
falling behind
in the past
international
a
relevant
diminished
nuclear war and the economic failure of Communism,
longer be needed.
forty
climate
institution.
threat
of
a
NATO may no
The intent of this thesis is to address the
relevance of NATO's role
in the post-Cold War era.
CHAPTER
LITERATURE
After
over
international
issue
of
era.
REVIEW
of
have many
relevance
first
obsolete.
decades
climate
NATO's
At
four
2
glance,
it
and
Cold
in
the
scholars wrestling with
the
its
would
role
seem
War,
changes
in the
that
post
NATO
Cold War
had
become
In "Redefining NATO,"1 Dale wrote:
The end of the cold war has removed NATO's prime
purpose and nobody on either side of the Atlantic
really knows how to provide the alliance with a
fresh sense of mission.2
Its
one
Europe,
reason
for
existing,
rapidly evaporated,
identity crisis.
the
Soviet
threat
to
Western
and NATO started to experience an
Manning wrote:
NATO is a victim of its own success.
The collapse
of the Soviet Union has deprived NATO of an enemy
and undermined its very reason for existence.3
Thus,
from
a
historical
standpoint
of
its
purpose,
NATO
was
largely bereft of a clear aim or discernible function.4
Reginald Dale,
(December
"Redefining NATO,"
1993/January
1994):
Europe,
no.
332
28-29.
2Ibid.
3Steven Manning,
Update
124
(24
4Michael Sutton,
NATO,"
"In Search of a Mission,"
January
1992):
"Commentary:
European Trends,
no.l
Scholastic
12.
NATO is Dead.
(1994):
5-8.
Long Live
6
Finding
are the
a
discernible
challenges that NATO
Chance for NATO?,"
the
function
fall
of
the
and
faces.
redefining
In Karatnyck's
it is expressed that four years
Berlin
Wall,
NATO
has
still
develop a compelling reason to exist.5
with
a
NATO military
that
is
predicated
role
on
the
to
its
replace
role
"Another
following
been
unable
to
It has not come up
the
deterrent
Cold War mentality
of
a
strategy
potential
enemy threatening Europe and the United States from the east.6
This might be attributed to old belief systems.
Plesch
wrote
that
despite
all
of
the
In 1991,
revolutionary
changes
that were taking place in the Soviet Union and the dissolution
of
the Warsaw Pact,
mentality.7
Changing
While
in
Some
the
NATO was
still
say that
NATO
times
calls
shielding Western
for
Europe
clinging to
should
the
the
change
changing
from Soviet
in
Cold War
its
role.
thinking.
aggression,
NATO
simultaneously helped with its rapid recovery from the ruin of
World War II.8
substitute,
Since it is an organization having no real
it should continue but with a different form.9
5Adrian Karatnyck,
Review 46
(7
"Another Chance for NATO?" National
February 1994):
57.
6|INATO is Obsolete," Editorial,
Society 7
(7 January 1994):
7Daniel Plesch,
Atomic Scientist 47
8Malcolm S.
152
(25
October
5.
"Same Tune,
(November
Forbes Jr.
1993):
New Statesman and
Fewer Violins," Bulletin of
1991):
9-10.
"Why We Need NATO Still," Forbes
26.
""Rethinking NATO," Economist 319 no.
18-19.
7708
(May 1991):
7
This form should allow for the incremental adaptation to a new
set of power relations whereby the relative responsibility and
latitude
of
European nations
increase
simultaneously
to
the
include
the
decrease in the United States and Soviet powers.10
The
arguments
for
a
changing
role
welcoming of eastern European nations
10,
1994,
at
Brussels,
It
the
NATO's
provides
North
Partnership
for
the
communist countries
Russia,
that
to
Atlantic
of
NATO
into NATO.
Council
summit
meeting
for Peace proposal was
individual
in Central
countries
of
and Eastern
in
adopted.
mainly
former
Europe
including
form a partnership with NATO under the
condition
the countries are democracies
criteria.11
and meet other political
Many countries that are not members of NATO,
looking at NATO with renewed or new interest.
include
On January
former
members
of
the
Warsaw
neutrals such as Sweden, Austria, and
are
These countries
Pact
and
Finland.12
European
The new role
would put together a security system in Europe that reinforces
trans-Atlantic links and helps the emerging democracies in the
East to share the benefits of the alliance.13
10John A.
Baker,
nSutton,
5-8.
Organization at 40,"
"The North Atlantic Treaty
Social
Education,
53
(February 1989):
112.
12Robert J. Guttman,
Niles,"
336
(May
Europe:
1994):
no.
332
Thomas
(EUP)
9-11.
13Lionel Barber,
(Europe)
"U.S. Ambassador to Greece:
Magazine of the European Community
"NATO: A Changing Mission," Europe
(December
1993/January
1994):
24-25.
no.
8
Although
formed
for a
specific
threat,
developing risks to European security and
still be necessary.14
their
attention
to
given
stability,
newly
NATO may
Military analysts have begun to draw
the
newer
threats
of
ethnic
Eastern Europe and the civil war in Yugoslavia.15
to the new threats of ethnic strife,
to Greece,
the
Thomas Niles,
strife
in
In reference
United States Ambassador
had this to say about Bosnia:
It's a real tragedy.
It's a rerun, if you will, of
what happened in Bosnia from 1941 to 1945, when
during
the
ethnic
German
occupation
communities,
Germans
there,
with
fell
into
the
of
Yugoslavia,
presence
fighting,
and
the
of
the
they
have
resumed it tragically, 50 years later.
It's almost
as if we rewound the tape and found that much of
the
tragedy
that
running again.16
Some
contend
that
to
took place
prevent
from
1941
nationalism
to
and
1945
is
ethnic
strife
from repeating history and again sparking a third world war,
a
new
NATO
security
strategy
to
arrangements
Europe is needed.17
extend
to
those
its
collective
potential
defense
conflict
areas
and
of
NATO is active in the maritime sanctions
enforcement area in the Adriatic and in the implementation of
the no-fly zone in Bosnia.
contributes
to
the
creation
14Kenneth A. Steadman,
Veterans
NATO's involvement in this dilemma
of
greater
stability
in
"Alliance for the Future,"
for Foreign Wars Magazine 80 no.
3
(November 1992)
30-32.
15Manning,
16Guttman,
12.
11.
17Ronald D. Asmus, Richard L. Kugler, and F. Stephen
Larrabee,
"Building a New NATO,"
(September/October
1993):
28.
the
Foreign Affairs 72,
no.4
9
region.18
ethnic
NATO could play a vital role in containing modern
war
political
Europe
by
guaranteeing
frontiers
that
are
in
against
Eastern,
threatened
and
forcible
change
East-Central,
in
some
and
instances
of
the
Balkan
have
been
violated as is the case in Bosnia.19
In light of the changes in Eastern Europe and the Soviet
Union,
assuming
a
Soviet
Union,
States
submitted
former
NATO
economics.20
The
cooperative
President
that
maintaining
States
more
the
for
security
need
of
foremost
important
to
Greece,
NATO
States
has
of
an
with
the
securing
Thomas
its
of
NATO.
Niles
members,
He
is
further
the
United
interest
said
the
in
peace
for securing peace.
and
role
Bush
reasons,
first one is
Ambassador
George
United
two
relationship
and
United
that
the
first
and
suggests
that
even though there is no direct or immediate threat to NATO's
security,
we should not believe that in the near future such
an immediate threat will not exist.
posed by the former Soviet Union,
maintained
United
as
an
States
European
continues
powers
18Guttman,
insurance
no.3
(Summer
21
no.
333
Guttman,
play
a
Furthermore,
leading
develop
role
in
if
the
NATO,
independent nuclear
11.
"Invitation to War," Foreign Affairs
1993):
20Martin Walker,
(Europe)
NATO's structure should be
policy.21
are unlikely to
"William Pfaff,
72,
to
By overcoming the threat
97.
"Financing Russia's Future," Europer
(February
Ibid.
1994):
6-8.
10
weapons.2Z
The
peaceful
and
orderly
transition
from
the
old
centrally planned Soviet economy to the democratic free market
republics,
is the top concern of the main economic actors of
the West,
1989,
in Europe,
the United States
and Japan.23
the Soviet Union and its successor,
Independent States,
Since
the Commonwealth of
has received an estimated grand total
$94.4 billion in aid from the West.24
of
NATO's struggle with the
problem of answering the strategic questions about how far and
how
fast
to
expand,
has
interfered with
the
"Financing Russia's Future," Walker wrote,
aid
from
the
West
may
not
be
the
economics.
$94.4
actual
billion
amount
of
delivered to the New Commonwealth of Independent States.
has led to inquiries from the United States,
Community
(now
International
the
European
Monetary
Fund,
Union),
the
In
in
aid
This
European Economic
the
Organization
World
for
Bank,
Economic
Cooperation and Development about the definite figures.25
Former
essential
President
to
linking
George
the
Bush
United
stated
States
stabilizing a secure environment there.26
to
that
NATO
Europe
and
was
for
Griffiths contends
22Jane Sharp, "Europe's Nuclear Dominoes," Bulletin of
the Atomic Scientist 49,
no.5
(June 1993):
29.
23Walker, 6-8.
24Ibid.
25Ibid.
26Daniel P. Galo,
Europe,"Europe
"Bush and Clinton speak Out on
(Europe),
no.
320
(October
1992):
22-29.
11
that NATO is a necessary component in achieving world peace
and defending the United States economy:
in "The New Europe:
Rival or Partner?", he sees the need for the continuation of
NATO
in
order
economy.27
to
ensure
the
defense
of
the
United
States
Griffiths speaks on NATO's role in the United
States as depending on two things:
First the extent to which Europe remains an open
trading
community,
avoiding
the
temptation
to
remove
internal
trade
barriers
while
creating
higher walls against imports from the outside to
become so-called "Fortress Europe"; second,
the
speed
and
effectiveness
with
which
United
States
firms
respond
to
the
challenge
and
the
opportunities offered by this great new market.28
At
the end of the
Cold War,
NATO
is
a
the
future
product
of
of NATO became
uncertain.
Because
the
questions of
its relevance has begun to arise.
Cold
War,
Now that a
communist nuclear threat from the East no longer exists,
NATO a relevant institution?
Some have begun to argue that
its Cold War deterrent strategy was obsolete.
of
the new NATO was
no
is
longer to
Communist threat from the East.
The challenge
stop the aggression of
a
NATO's role would be to put
more responsibility on the Europeans as the influence of the
United States and the Soviet Union decreased.
Along with the
end of the Cold War came a very familiar problem.
Just as the
direct Soviet military threat diminished, the wake of renewed
ethnic strife erupted in Europe, threatening the stability of
27Eldon Griffiths, "The New Europe: Rival or Partner?,"
Business Forum 14,
28
Ibid.,
9.
no.
4
(Fall 1989):
6-10.
12
the region.
To
get
a
sense
of
the
changing
future of NATO must be considered,
climate
in
which
the
it is necessary to retrace
its history and its involvement in aggressive confrontations
over
the
historical
last
four
decades.
background
and
A
a
brief
content
involvement in aggressive confrontations
review
analysis
of
NATO's
of
its
from 1950 to 1993,
will help us to speculate on NATO's involvement in the future.
CHAPTER
3
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF NATO
From the
world
had
been
end of World War
living
in
a
II
up until
bipolar
world
1990,
with
the
the
constant
threat of a nuclear war between the two "super powers"
United States of America and the Soviet Union.
known as the Cold War.
crush
the
Russian
— the
This period is
Its origin lies in the chaotic end of
World War II and the American,
to
entire
European,
Communist
and Japanese attempts
revolution
of
1917.:
The
failed western attempt at overcoming Lenin and his associates
did
not
favor well
with
the
Soviets.
mutual distrust with the Soviet perception
world
and the Western preoccupation with
festering
throughout
the
interwar
This
resulted
in
a
of the capitalist
the
Soviet designs
period.2
This
mistrust
between the Soviets and the West was not completely suppressed
even when they were fighting a common enemy in World War II.3
United
States
foreign
policy,
for
over
four
decades
sought to build an international order predicated on its
1James A. Nathan and James k. Oliver, United States
Foreign Policy and World Order
and London:
Scott,
(Glenview,
Foresman and Company,
2Ibid.
3Ibid.
13
Illinois;
1989),
4.
Boston;
14
military
and
economic
superiority.4
vast majority of United States
countering
the
growth
and
During
that
time,
foreign policy was
expansion
of
Soviet
the
aimed at
Communism.
Nathan and Oliver put it succinctly with this statement:
In the West, the greatest threat to international
order after World War II was the political and
economic chaos of Western Europe.
The severe
economic dislocations of the war seemed to provide
the opportunity for Soviet expansion beyond their
Central European hegemony gained through the defeat
of Nazi power in 1944 and 1945.5
The United States feared that the Soviets were a totalitarian
power,
thus
a
threat
security interests.
to
United
States
international
and
This fear was brought about by both World
War experiences in which the aggression of totalitarian powers
played
major
roles
in
the
advent
of
those
wars.
Robert
Osgood argues that it was a necessity to "stop the first steps
of
piecemeal
aggression
totalitarian power.
against
the
Free
World"6
by
any
This was to prevent a chain reaction of
aggression resulting in another World War.
Stalin was now seen as the new enemy and with the nuclear
age
at
Efforts
hand,
were
aggression
war
made
on
the
was
the
last
to prevent
United
thing
"this
States.
that
anyone
new Hitler"7
A
security
wanted.
from using
system
4Ibid.
5Ibid.
6Robert E. Osgood, Alliances and American Foreign
Policy
(Baltimore:
7Ibid.
Johns Hopkins Press,
1968),
1.
was
15
established which used military deterrence with the threat of
its nuclear weapons.
In
1946,
George
Kennan
"containment theory."
foreign
policy
proposed
that
for
next
Soviet
forty-four
Union
of
constantly
points."8
memorandum
shifting
years.
could
expanding by the "vigilant application
series
a
of
his
This theory would shape United States
the
the
developed
be
In
it,
deterred
he
from
of counter-force at a
geographical
and
political
This meant that for every move the Soviets made,
the United States would respond wherever it deemed necessary.
This marked the beginning of the "Cold War."
The United States
In
reference
preventing
the
to
alliances
spread
America's
sustained
communist
control,
important
part."9
of
effort
and
their
Communism,
to
alliances
This
on Alliances
prevent
have
statement
effectiveness
Osgood
wrote,
the
extension
played
an
represents
"in
the
general
Many
people characterized the Soviets as natural aggressors.
in
which
alliances
have
left
an
of
especially
consensus held on the view of alliances at that time.
way
at
impression
is
One
by
exhibiting and uplifting the political power and influence of
the
United
8Ibid.
9Ibid.
States.
While
elevating
its
role
in
the
16
international
deterrence.
arena,
it
also
played
a
major
role
in
Secondly, the concept of national alliances is a
display of peaceful,
ordered harmony among separate nation
states within the alliance.
Osgood
explained it best with
this statement:
The
American
ideal
of
regional
alliances
is
enshrined in the United Nations Charter as part of
a compromise between the competing concepts of
regional and universal methods of organizing world
peace and security.10
This concept was appealing to the United States because it was
the
closest
institutions
that
it
against
had
Communism
security to maintain peace.
State,
Dean Rusk,
as
been
to
in
organizing
a
sort
collective
of
collective
Osgood quotes former Secretary of
saying:
The integrity of these alliances, is at the heart
of the maintenance of peace, and if it should be
discovered that the pledge of the United States is
meaningless, the structure of peace would crumble
and we would be well on our way to a terrible
catastrophe.11
This was the consensus of most Americans and Western Europeans
at the beginning of the Cold War.
However,
foreign
policy.
Constitution,
policy.
alliances
were
not
Historically,
always
since
a
the
part
of
adoption
of
the
the United States had a no permanent alliance
The communists in Czechoslovakia in 1948,
the United States that a full,
10Ibid., 3.
nIbid.
American
convinced
formal military commitment to
17
Western
Europe
Atlantic
was
Treaty
needed.12
in
1949
It
that
was
the
not
until
United
the
States
North
embraced
alliances as a deterrent to Soviet expansion.
The basic reason for American participation in the
North Atlantic Treaty was simple enough.
The
treaty was concluded after it became apparent,
during
the
Berlin
Blockade
of
1949
that
efforts
toward
economic
reconstruction
and
political
stability in Western Europe required a framework of
security, if they were to prove effective, and that
in the circumstances this security could only be
provided by an American pledge to defend Western
Europe against a Soviet Attack.13
In other words, the main purpose of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization was to formally commit the United States1 vital
interest
in
defending
Western
Europe's
security
and
independence against Soviet attacks, not to win a war.
The
In
Importance of the United
Europe,
there
already
States to the
existed
the
1948
Treaty
of
Brussels, which was a pledge of the western European allies of
World War II to a joint defense system.
arises
as
explains
to
it
indigenous
why
in
the
this
alliance
12,
Alastair Buchan,
United
manner,
seemed
States
"All
to
be
Hence,
was
the
the question
needed.
determinants
operating
The Future of NATO
1967),
8.
13Osgood, 2.
of
except
finternational
Conciliation, The Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace,
Osgood
an
one-
18
sufficient military capability."14
The military capability
that he was referring to was nuclear capability.
This was
the area for which the United States was needed because of its
tremendous nuclear arsenal.
a deterrent to the Soviets.
given
informal
European
support
allies,
it
was
Its nuclear arsenal was used as
Even though the United States had
and
was
active
not
enough.
with
The
the
allies
Western
wanted
a
formal pledge from the United States to defend Western Europe
against
invasion
reluctant
at
by
the
first,
Soviets.
because
The
it
wanted
commitment than to be labeled an ally.
the
only way
assistance,
alliance,
to
establish
with
the
North
would
Atlantic
a
States
less
was
binding
When concluding that
an American
credibility,
United
pledge
be
of
through
Treaty
military
a
formal
Organization
was
formulated.
The original NATO pact created by treaty (signed April 4,
1949; which came into effect on August 24,
12 members of the alliance: Belgium,
1949)
Canada,
included the
Denmark,
France,
Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal,
the United Kingdom and the United states.15
"if
any
members
were
militarily
it stated that,
attacked,
it
considered an attack on the entire alliance."16
14Ibid.,
42
5Ibid.
15Ibid.,
42.
16Ibid.
would
be
This pact
19
guaranteed assistance from the allied forces in retaliation.17
Greece
and
Germany
Turkey
in 1955,
joined
in
and Spain
1952,
The
in 1982.
Federal
Republic
of
viewed
as
18
The Diminishing Threat of Nuclear War
United
States
particularly
arsenal.
involvement
important
in
NATO
was
of
its
superior
because
nuclear
Since the allied European Conventional forces were
considered
to be
outnumbered
and
inferior to
the
Soviets1,
United States nuclear weapons were the backbone of the Western
European defense.
the Soviet Union
A nuclear attack from the United States on
(or any other country
for that matter)
potentially and significantly destructive.
a
threat
was
enough
to
deter
any
country
United States' to the limit.
In fact,
for
there
the
past
four
decades,
was
The mere hint of
from
pushing
the
some experts argue that
had
been
relative
peace
between the Soviets and the Western European Allies because of
the United States nuclear threat.
The Cuban Missile Crisis,
as is discussed below in the section under the Cold War,
is
also an event in testimony to the its power.
The United States'
strategy to defend NATO was to inflict
massive nuclear air strikes on the Soviet Union in the event
of any Soviet aggression.
17
Ibid.
18Baker,
109.
This was the basis of the United
20
States'
military policy
States
stood
for NATO.
uncontested
in
At that time,
nuclear
introduction of the United States1
brought a new military
policy towards the Soviets
is
superior nuclear arsenal
since
defined
by
for United States Foreign
the beginning of the
Kegley
and
Wittkopf
prevention from action by way of consequence."19
War
II,
its
display
atomic
the United States was
bomb
of
atomic
dropped
The
This policy is deterrence.
Deterrence had been the basis
Deterrence
dominance.
policy to the world arena of politics
that based peace on fear.
War.
the United
destroyed the entire city,
as"the
After World
in a position of power due to
capability
over
Cold
the
on
Japan.
Japanese
The
city
of
American
Hiroshima
as Lackey wrote:
Within seconds, tens of thousands of people were
incinerated by the fireball or crushed by the
atomic blast.
Within hours tens of thousands more
died
from
the
effects
of
ionizing
radiation
produced by nuclear fission.20
After witnessing the horrors of the effects of the atomic bomb
on Hiroshima,
it was not conceivable that the Soviets would
expose themselves to the same horrible
of nuclear deterrence in U.S.
Nuclear
weapons
changed
fate.
(and NATO)
the
Thus,
foreign policy.
validity
considered to be priority number one
the birth
of a
of
what
was
sovereign nation
"Charles W. Kegley, Jr. and Eugene R. Wittkopf, eds.,
The Nuclear Reader: Strategyr Weapons,
York: St. Martin's Press, 1989), 348.
and Warr
2d ed.
20Douglas P. Lackey, The Ethics of War and Peace
(Engelwood Cliffs,
98.
New Jersey:
Prentice Hall Inc.,
(New
1989),
21
state.
That being the protection of itself from any external
threat.
Kegley and Wittkopf wrote on this
issue:
Since the advent of the nuclear age, the ability of
the United States and other countries to provide
for
the
common
defense
has
considerably
compromised.
President John F. Kennedy was not
engaging in hyperbole when he noted that nuclear
weapons have challenged the validity of traditional
approaches
and previous doctrines.
Because
of
them,
world politics takes place
whose very structure terrorizes
diminishes
the
ability
of
its
in a threat system
its
inhabitants
leaders
the national security they seek.21
The monopoly on these awesome weapons made
role
in
NATO
a
vital
one.
The
threat
to
and
provide
the United States'
of
a
United
States
nuclear retaliation on Russian Aggression was considered to be
a major deterrent to Soviet Aggression.
In August
detonating
an
1949,
however,
atomic
explosion.
before the West had anticipated.
in world politics.
the Soviet Union
This
succeeded
happened
Suddenly,
three
in
years
there was a shift
The United States would no longer be the
sole owner of nuclear power and its destructive capabilities.
This would change the political climate of the world for years
to come.
East
A frantic guest for nuclear superiority between the
(Soviet
Union
States and NATO)
and
the
ensued.
Warsaw
Pact)
and
West
(United
Kegley Wittkopf wrote:
But
so
far
as
strategic
implications
were
concerned, most civilians and military leaders who
were in any way alarmed by the Russian Achievement
simply concluded that the United States had to
maintain
her
nuclear
superiority
(which
was
conceived to mean at that time, her ability to win
a nuclear war as well as to deter one) by keeping
21
Kegley and Wittkopf,
11.
22
ahead in the race for nuclear stocks and strategic
bombers and proceeding to develop the hydrogen, or
1 super' bomb.22
This
quest between the two powers
become
known
as
the
strategic
arms
for nuclear dominance had
race.
This,
simply put,
was the continued attempt by the powers to out develop,
and deploy the others nuclear arsenal
with the hopes
obtain
to deter
attack.
To win the arms race,
its own plan of attack.
each super power had come up with
Each plan was designed to reciprocate
the others so as to place itself at an advantage.
States
policy
of
nuclear
"Countervailing Strategy."
Carter
revised
the
policy
In
weapons
1981,
that
was
was
former
The United
called
President Jimmy
originally
former President Gerald Ford in 1974.23
the
adopted
by
The strategy called
for the "use of American nuclear weapons against the Soviets,
even
if they have not used them first."24
called the "first use."
not
any
It meant that the United States had
closed the doors on the possibility of
aggression
on
its
This strategy is
interests.
Lackey
nuclear usage
explains
it
follows:
This technique of the Countervailing Strategy is to
demonstrate to the Soviets that whatever gains they
might obtain from a military attack on the United
22Ibid,
52.
"Douglas P. Lackey, The Ethics of War and Peace
(Engelwood Cliffs,
99.
24
Ibid.
New Jersey:
Prentice Hall
Inc.,
1989),
in
as
23
States or its allies or in the Persian Gulf will be
more
than
offset
from American
by
the
losses
retaliation.25
they
will
sustain
The logic behind this strategy was to use nuclear weapons as
a
deterrent,
sending
a
clear
and
decisive
message
Soviets that aggression against the United States,
to
the
American
allies, or in areas around the Persian Gulf would guarantee a
nuclear war between the United States and the Soviet Union.
Some may hold the view that NATO with its Countervailing
Strategy
was
unnecessary
because
it
had
no
basis
for
its
purpose.
The Countervailing Strategy is based on the supposed
aggressive characteristics of the Soviet Union.
The aggressive characteristics of the Soviet Union
is manifest in its ideology of revolution; its vast
military expenditures;
absorption of reluctant
minorities-Ukrainians,
Latvians,
Estonians,
and
others into the Soviet state; its political and
military dominance of Eastern Europe; its invasions
of Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Afghanistan; and its
meddling in several African states.26
These views were often exaggerated and propaganda.
At other
times, they were one-sided with little attention to history.
A
criticism
of
the
expressed by Lackey,
Countervailing
Strategy
from
the
gives examples of these happenings:
The
Countervailing
Strategy
appropriates
popular view of the Soviets as aggressors.
though Soviet propaganda is revolutionary,
the
But
the
especially
Soviet leaders are old and conservative,
in military. In the historical record, the Russians
are rarely aggressors,
and when they are,
Crimean War, they invariably lose.
"ibid.
26Ibid.
as in the
Since 1945 the
left
24
main thrust of Soviet military action has been not
to
support
aggressive
preserve the
status
change
quo.
The
but
to
restore
and
incorporation of the
Baltic
States,
for
example,
restores
those
countries to the condition they were in 1917.
The
Warsaw Pact invasions of the Hungary,Czechoslovakia
and Afghanistan were in each case undertaken to
restore a pro-Soviet regime to power.27
The basic
its
nuclear
element
of NATO's
deterrence.
Countervailing
However,
in
today's
credibility of the nuclear threat has declined.
earlier,
NATO
(along with
peace in Europe.
its
that
for
relative peace
in
"first
use"
has been the mechanism that has maintained
This presumes that if there had not been a
the
there would not have been peace.
past
Europe.
forty-five
But as
years
there
Lackey points
has
out,
cannot necessarily be attributed to the United States'
arsenal
the
As mentioned
countervailing strategy of
nuclear threat from NATO,
true
world,
is
it has been argued that for the past forty-five years
nuclear deterrence)
is
Strategy
It
been
peace
nuclear
alone:
The Countervailing Strategy makes assumptions that
American
readiness
to
use
nuclear
weapons
has
produced
40
years
of
peace
in
Europe.
presumes there would have been war in Europe
United States had not had nuclear weapons.
This
if the
But it
is impossible to guess what might have happened in
Europe if the United States had deployed only
conventional weapons, and impossible to show that
fear
of nuclear war has produced
40
years
of
European peace.28
The view that it is because of the existence of NATO that
there has been peace for four decades,
27Ibid.,
107.
28Ibid., 106.
ignores
important facts
25
of history.
Before the existence of nuclear weapons,
there
were periods of peace that lasted for at least the same amount
of
time.
This
argument
is
strengthened
by
Lackey
when
makes reference to the period after the Persian War of
He argues that there was peace
even when the
he
1871.
"governments
in
general were more militaristic than they are now."29
The general problem with this view is
visioned."
factors
peace
In other words,
that
in
may
have
Europe.
it
is
a
role
example,
in
this
the
view
maintenance
overlooks
knowledge that people obtain from past experiences.
point,
"tunnel
it totally disregards any other
played
For
that
of
the
A case in
are the effects that both World War I and II as Lackey
expressed,
lessons
"were
help
weapons."30
to
disasters
prevent
in
war,
Europe,
nuclear
and
weapons
those
or
terrible
no
nuclear
The questions of morals may also come into play.
It is conceivable that there is something within the nature of
humans that loathes war and unrest.
it
is
conceivable
that
there
If this is the case,
could
exist
in
each
then
person
a
desire to prevent the very thing that each person loathes-war!
The
The
United
States1
Cold
War
involvement
in
the
North
Atlantic
Treaty Organization sent a clear and unmistakable message to
29Ibid,
107.
30Ibid,
196.
26
the
Soviet
Union
warning
of,
as
Osgood
put
it,
"America's
vital interest in preserving the security and independence of
the
nations
of
wholeheartedly
Western
supported
Europe."31
the
President
theory
of
Truman
"containment,"
as
described by Kennan, which was seen by Stalin as an attempt by
the West to infringe upon the security of the Soviet Union.
Since then,
in
a
Cold
the two superpowers had been "knocking heads"
War.
They
military conflicts,
to "bluff calling"
In the
began between the United States and
Former United States President, John F.
warned the Soviets to remove their nuclear missiles
the Western
hemisphere
(Cuba)
or
They even resorted to name calling,
Reagan
Empire"
indirect
There had been a build up of Soviet nuclear
missiles in Cuba.32
Ronald
from
the most severe direct crisis of the nuclear
the Soviet Union.
from
ranging
like the Cuban Missile Crisis.
age up until that point,
Kennedy,
conflicts
as in the Korean War,
of strategic positions,
spring of 1962,
had
referred
to
in the 1980's.
the
risk World
War
III.
as when former President
Soviet
Union
as
the
"Evil
The most significant symbol of this
situation was the erecting of the Berlin Wall in 1961.
The
Berlin Wall was
a
symbol
that
stood
as
a
constant
reminder of the bipolar world, or in other words, the physical
separator of communist East
and the capitalist West
(Soviet Union and the Warsaw pact)
(United States and NATO).
On June 2nd
31Osgood, Alliances and American Foreign Policyf 42.
32Buchan, The Future of NATOr 8.
27
and
3rd,
1961,
President
Kennedy
Kruschev to establish contact.33
met
with
Soviet
While meeting,
Leader
the differing
views on Berlin between the East and the West were brought to
surface.
Kruschev then gave an ultimatum and a major crisis
began:
The Soviet Union would conclude a separate peace
treaty with East Germany by the end of the year.
This would terminate the West's rights of access to
Berlin.
The crisis built up rapidly.
On July 8,
Mr.
Kruschev
announced Russia
was
abandoning
a
projected
reduction
in
its
armed
forces
and
increasing
its
defence
expenditures
by
over
a
third.
On July 25, President Kennedy called for a
substantial build up of NATO forces.
President
Kennedy was
situation that,
to
quoted
as
saying
in
reference
the
"We can not and will not permit the Communists
drive us out of Berlin,
either gradually or by
Tension mounted between the East and West.
more and more East Germans were
in
to
"NATO Facts and Figures,"
And,
as
fleeing to the West.
reports that
force.1'35
it did,
Manileo
"during the
first
six months of the year over 103,000 had fled to the West."36
The Berlin Wall was built right through the middle of the
city of
Berlin.
attempt
to
Citizenry
to
stop
the
The Soviet government built the wall
the
massive
capitalist
migration
west.
of
East
East
Germans
in an
Germany's
were
33Manileo Brosio, Sec. Gen. of NATO, Nato Facts and
Figures
(Brussels:
34Ibid., 49.
35Ibid., 91.
36Ibid., 49.
Information Services,
1969),
49.
not
28
allowed to travel freely from the East to the West without the
proper authorization of the government.
trying to cross the border,
shot to death.
28
If anyone was caught
they would be
subject
This wall was the symbol of the Cold War for
years.
On November 9,
1989,
the wall
"came
tumbling down"
East and West Germans could once again travel
the
to being
border
peacefully.37
beginning of a new era.
This
historic
and
freely across
event
marked
the
It was a time that showed a change in
the world and a chance for peace,
freedom and development as
expressed by Stanglin and Pete:
For
28
years
the
allowed
to
Berlin Wall
bottled
emerge
the
up
far more
than the frustrations of 17 million East Germans.
It held back the tides of a New Europe that was
never
War II.38
from
rubble
of
World
Is it absurd to allow NATO to continue to exist after such an
historic event?
Let us now turn to the research design that
the writer uses to examine this issue.
Research Question
The research explores the relevance of NATO by examining
the hypothesis that it
is because of the existence of NATO
37,
7Douglas Stanglin and Ross Pete, "The Death of the Old
Order," U.S.
38Ibid.
News and World Reportf
20 November 1989,
20.
29
there has been relative peace for over four decades,
that
reason
controversial
necessary
to
it
should
continue
to
issue.
To
examine
measure
the
extent
exist.
this
of
and for
This
hypothesis,
NATO
is
a
it
is
involvement
in
critical incidents in the world arena.
This thesis attempts to answer the question of NATO's role by
measuring and relating the variables in the questions:
1. How much was NATO involved in non-Cold War conflicts,
from 1950 to
1993?
2. How much was NATO involved in conflicts where nuclear
war was not a threat,
3.
How much
forceful
was
NATO
from
involved
implementation
not a threat,
of
1950
in
to
1993?
conflicts
communist
where
the
control
was
from 1950 to 1993?
Relating NATO's involvement to these research questions gives
a basis upon which a measurement can be made.
This allows us
to speculate on NATO's involvement in future events.
determination of its relevance can be made.
Hence a
Let us now turn
to the research design that the writer uses to examine the
role of NATO from 1950 to 1993.
CHAPTER
4
METHODOLOGY
The purpose of this thesis is to address the relevance of
NATO in the post-Cold War era.
A content analysis of events
summarized in Facts On File Yearbook was used to examine and
measure some indicators of NATO's involvement during the Cold
War
and
the
reference
post
service
national
and
Cold
War
eras.
consists
foreign
of
news
The
a
Facts
20-page
events
and
On
File
weekly
a
news
digest
on
twice-monthly
cumulative index that has summarized, recorded and indexed the
news
for
over
four
decades.1
The
Facts
On
File
Yearbook
consists of all 52 weekly news digests and an annual index,
printed on yellow paper at the back of the volume.2
apparent
after analyzing the summaries of NATO in
It became
1949,
that
because 1949 was its installation year it was not involved in
any confrontations for that year.
The researcher performed a
content analysis of information in the Facts On File Yearbook
indexes
for
the
years
(1950-1993)
to
analyze
NATO's
involvement in confrontations over a forty-three year period.
lnFacts on File Yearbook 1993:
World events,"
facts on File,
The Indexed Record of
Facts on File Yearbook
Inc., 1993).
2Ibid.
30
1993
(New York,
N.Y.
31
Content
analysis
systematic,
and
communication
has
been
quantitative
content."3
defined
as
an
technique
for
the
Holsti
contends
"objective,
analysis
that
analysis is particularly useful when the data of
limited to documentary
of
content
interest are
evidence or when the material
is too
voluminous for one researcher to evaluate systematically.4
The
studies
writer
did
concerned
a
with
literature
disputes
review
between
those variables from humans to nations.
are conflict events
The
writer
involvement
in
from 1950 to
examined
two
confrontations
of
quantitative
persons
and
adapted
The units of analysis
1993.
sets
and
of
variables:
NATO's
military
NATO's
actions.
Con frontat i ons are operationalized as any aggression directly
or indirectly related to one of the NATO members.
Aggression
is
Third
defined
according
International
The
to
Dictionary:
actions
of
Merriam
-
Webster•s,
New
The English Language Unabridged;
when
violating
the
rights,
especially
the
territorial
rights,
of
another
nation as by unprovoked attack, invasion, or other
unfriendly, military action or sometimes by serious
threat of or preparation for such action.
3Harold H. Kassarjian,
Research,"
Journal
of
"Content Analysis in Consumer
Consumer Research
3
(1977):
8-18;
quoted in Darlene Brannigan Smith and Paul N. Bloom, "Using
Content Analysis to Understand the Consumer Movement," The
Journal of Consumer Affairs 23 (Winter 1989): 306.
4O.R. Holsti,
and Humanities,"
in Ibid.,306.
"Content Analysis for the Social Sciences
(Reading,
HA:
Addison-Wesley,
1969),
quoted
—Webster Third New International Dictionary:
The English Language Unabridgedr rev. ed. (1986),
Springfield, MA: Merriam-Webster Inc., 41.
32
NATO military actions are operationalized as any military
exercises
such
deployment
mechanisms
as
of
air
ground
strikes,
troops,
mock
and
(i.e., patriot missiles)
military
maneuvers,
deployment
of
defense
as a NATO executive order
by NATO members.
Quantitative Studies
There
done
are
in the
several
in International
quantitative
international
"African
Foreign
(AFRICA)
Project,
arena.
Relations
and
1964-1966."6
Confrontation
studies
that have
One is Patrick McGowan's
Internal
This
Conflict
study
Analysis
contains
15,000
foreign policy acts for 32 sub-Saharan African nations.
were collected on a daily basis from January 1,
December 31,
toward
1965.
another
been
1964,
Data
through
Acts represent official words or actions
(including
non-African)
state,
international organization, or group of states .
coded for 32 variables,
leader,
Each act is
including actor, date, target, type of
foreign policy instrument used, and person acting.
The
Pearson
Intervention,
and
Bauman
1946-1988,"7
study,
seeks
"International
to
identify
Military
politically
important actions which interpose a state directly into the
6Patrick McGowan, African Foreign Relations and
Internal
Conflict Analysis
(Africa)
Pro-iect.
1964-1Qfifi
(Ann
Arbor, MI: Guide to Resources and Services, 1993-1994 Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social
Research),241.
7Frederic S. Pearson, and Robert A. Bauman,
International Military Intervention.
1946-1QRR
33
conflict
patterns
occurring
in
another
state,
which
conceivably involve a breach of the sovereignty of the target
state
(albeit
by
invitation
in
some
cases) .
The
data
collection documents all cases of military intervention across
international
boundaries
by
regular
armed
independent states in the regions of Europe,
Caribbean),
Asia and the Pacific,
Middle East/North Africa.
in this
forces
the Americas
Sub-Saharan Africa,
of
(and
and the
Military interventions are defined
study as:
The movement of regular troops or forces (airborne,
seaborne, shelling, etc.) of one country into the
territory or territorial waters of another country,
or
forceful
military
action
by
troops
stationed by one country inside another,
already
in the
context of some political issue or dispute.8
In the Charles McClelland study
Survey
a
(WEIS)
report
of
Project,
an
91,240 events
1966-1978,"9 each case in the data is
international
are
between
referred
nations,
force between nations."10
date,
action category,
McGowan
event.
It
includes
data
from January 1966 through November 1977.
(interactions)
communicated
"World Event/Interaction
presents
to
as,"words
such
as
threats
Events
and
of
for
deeds
military
McClelland coded the actor, target,
event code,
data
for
19
and arena for each event.
variables
on
some
13,000
8Ibid.
9Charles McClelland, World Event/Interaction Survey
(WEIS)
Projectf
and Services,
1966-1978
(Ann Arbor,
Political and Social Research),241.
10
Ibid.
MI:
Guide to Resources
1993-1994 Inter-university Consortium for
34
events related to affairs in Southern Africa between 1973
1976,
The
in "Southern African Subsystem Events Data,
actors
core
and targets
states
of
of this
study
Angola,
and
1973-1976."n
include:
Mozambique,
Rhodesia,
Malawi,
South
Africa,
Namibia,
Lesotho,
and
Swaziland;
various
liberation
movements
within
those states;"Bantu" homelands; peripheral African
powers; certain non-African states involved in that
region;
The
and international organizations.12
variables
of
this
study
include
issue
area
coding,
the
date and other event characteristics.
A
study
Interaction
done
in
by
Mogdis
Asia,
and
Tidwell
1956-1968.l|13
called,
presents
"Regional
data
on
21
interaction variables for 272 Asian dyads for 13 time points.
Trade,
diplomatic
international
exchange,
organization
treaties,
membership
are
conflict,
the
and
variables
categorized study.14
There are several content analyses done
of International Affairs.
and Hiroaki Yoshii's
Data.
Susumu Yamakage,
"Content Analysis of Asian Newspapers:
nPatrick McGowan,
1973-1976
Nobuo Sasaki Jo,
in the area
Southern African Subsystem Events
(Ann Arbor,
MI:
Guide to Resources and
Services, 1993-1994 Inter-university Consortium for
Political and Social Research),241.
12Ibid.
13Franz Mogdis and Karen Tidwell, Regional Interaction
in Asiar 1956- 1968 (Ann Arbor, MI: Guide to Resources and
Services, 1993-1994 Inter-university Consortium for
Political and Social Research),241.
14
Ibid.
35
1962,
of
1966,
3,674
1970,
news
countries,
1966,
items
taken
consists of content analyses
from
published during the
1970,
events
and 1972, "15
and
and
Indonesia,
1972.
foreign
newspapers
last
three
Fourteen variables
interactions
involving
of
four
months
describe
Japan,
Asians
of
1962,
domestic
Thailand,
and Singapore.16
Quantitative Studies of Confrontation
from Social
Psychology
Other relevant quantitative studies of confrontation come
from the
field of
social psychology.
"Sibling
Violence
and
Agnostic
Adolescents,"17 for example,
hundred
surveyed
seventy-two
high
regarding
perpetrators
of
Interactions
and Roscoe's
Among
Middle
examines sibling violence.
school
their
sibling
Goodwin
juniors
experiences
violence
with their closest-spaced siblings.
and
Two
and
seniors
were
as
victims
and
agnostic
interactions
Their findings supported
earlier reports that siblings engage in a variety of violent
acts toward one another with little difference between males
15Nobuo Jo, Nobuo Sasaki, Susumu Yamakage, and Hiroaki
Yoshii, Content Analysis of Asian Newspapers: 1962. 1Qfifir
197Q, 1972 (Ann Arbor, MI:
Guide to Resources and Services,
1993-1994 Inter-university Consortium for Political and
Social Research),
241.
16Ibid., 241.
17Megan P. Goodwin and Bruce Roscoe, "Sibling Violence and
Agnostic Interactions Among Middle Adolescents,"
Adolescencef
98
(Summer 1990):
451-467.
36
and
females.18
analyzed
to
studies
A
variety
determine
can
be
of
demographic
patterns
research
in
design
sibling
models
variables
were
violence.
for
Such
International
Affairs.
Smith
and
Bloom,
in
an
article
called
"Using
Content
Analysis to Understand the Consumer Movement,"19 used content
analysis of information in the New York Times Index to examine
and
analyze the
United
States
environment
over a
of the
consumer movement
fourteen-year period.
showing how a news index can be used
This
is
in
the
a model
in Content Analysis.
Sampling
To
do
a
content
confrontations,
analysis
of
NATO's
involvement
the writer needed to utilize a source that not
only listed all of the events that NATO was involved in,
it
also
had
construct
to
a
be
systematic
systematic,
and
reliable.
reliable
index
from
1949
to
1993
was
In
list
international incidents that involved NATO,
Yearbook
in
of
the
but
order
to
critical
Facts on File
searched
to
list
and
count all of the entries of events under the heading of NATO
during this time period.
critical
These events were operationalized as
international incidents.
In Table
1.,
the number of
18Ibid., 451.
19Darlene Brannigan Smith and Paul N. Bloom, "using Content
Analysis to Understand the Consumer Movement,"
of Consumer Affairs 23 (Winter 1989): 301-328.
The Journal
37
critical
international
incidents
involving NATO
by
year
are
illustrated.
The
next
challenge
was
to
determine
which
incidents would be considered confrontations.
an
the
international
events
listed
international.
events
were
organization the writer
The
under
next
to
The
Since NATO is
allowed
be
challenge was
confrontations.
confrontations.
NATO
writer
to
critical
for all
of
considered
as
determine which
took
a
sample
of
These were identified in the index by phrases
containing the indicators of confrontations
(see Table 2).
The writer took from these confrontations a
sample.
The
summaries of the first and last entries of confrontations for
each year were coded and recorded on
a
tally
sheet.
38
Table 1.—Number of Critical
Year
Number
1949
124
1950
115
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
203
202
83
50
53
1956
1957
1958
95
239
155
1959
141
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Total
Incidents Involving NATO by Year
98
87
54
181
61
84
169
65
92
97
1970
110
1971
78
1972
46
1973
42
1974
1975
103
95
1976
90
1977
45
1978
102
1979
85
1980
98
1981
102
1982
1983
81
91
1984
103
1985
52
1986
68
1987
79
1988
83
1989
86
1990
121
1991
46
1992
36
1993
45
1949-1993
4335
39
From this sample,
the writer took a sample of critical
incidents and coded them for confrontations.
Measuring
Care
where
The
an
was
taken
to
achieve
event would be
researcher
had
to
and Coding
consistency
in
those
judged not pertinent to the
determine
which
critical
cases
study.
incidents
involving NATO were confrontations.
I.
the
researcher
coded
latent contents of
II.
for
both
the
manifest
and
"confrontations."
Several critical incidents were coded for variables
adapted from quantitative studies concerned with
disputes
between
persons
and
adapted
those
variables from humans to nations.
These variables
illustrated in table 2, were used as a test list of
manifest content indicators for confrontations.
Table 2.—Test List of Manifest Content Indicators for
Confrontations
•Kidnapping
•Air Strike
•Attack
•Blast (non verbal)
•Block
•Bomb/Shell
•Landings
•Mission
•Peace Keeping
•Peace Treaty
•Clash
•Coup
•Deployment
•Draft
missiles)
(Troops)
•Exercises
•Hijackers (sea,
•Retaliation
•Sorties
air)
and
Variables that
adapted
•Quarrel
•Raids
(Resolve
•Reject
(ignore
•Threat
(Atomic,
(Summer
War,
in Alliance)
•Warnings.
researcher adapted from disputes between persons
from humans to nations.
98
Conflict)
threat)
•Reserves
Megan P.
"Sibling Violence and_Agnostic_J.nteractions
Adolesence.
(Denying/Signing)
•Reject
•Seize
•War
Source:
forces to fight)
•Provoke
d'etat
(Troops,
(Troops,
•Maneuvers
1990):
451-467.
Goodwin and Bruce Roscoe,
Among middle.Adolescents^"
40
111 •
IV.
To pretest the coding scheme two coders used
these indicators located in the Facts On File
Yearbook
index
to
code
several
critical
incidents summarized within.
Each coder independently coded the same set of
observations using the indicators to compare
the extent of agreement between the manifest
(indicators) contents of confrontations to the
latent content of confrontations.
In other
words
the
list
of
indicators
was
used
to
identify confrontations which were then coded
for
the
underlying
content
of
"confrontations" as was defined earlier.
V.
After
establishing
the
attributes
of
confrontations from the agreement between the
list of indicators to the latent content of
confrontations, each coder went through the
Index of the Facts on File Yearbook for every
year
(1950-1993)
and recorded every time that
one of these attributes appeared in the entry
phrases under the heading of NATO.
VI.
The coders then sampled :the summaries of the
first and last entry phrases of each year
containing the attributes of confrontations
and coded them for the manifest content of the
three Research Questions:
1.
2.
How
much
was
War conflicts,
NATO
involved
1950-1993?
in
non-Cold
How much was NATO involved in conflicts
where
nuclear war was not a threat,
1950-1993?
3.
How much was NATO involved in conflicts
where the control of communism was not a
threat,
VII.
1950-1993?
The
researcher
took
a
sample
of
phrases
containing the indicators of confrontations.
The first and last confrontations for every
year were coded for the latent
content of confrontations.
VIII.
(a)
Theme.
theme.
content
(underlying)
Each summary was coded as to the
The theme being the overall
of
the
summary.
The
theme
was
41
the
main
content
of
the
summary
translated
into
one
symbol.
The
following themes were established:
Cold
War,
Nuclear
Threat,
and
Communist
Threat.
(b)
Category
was
one,
two
or
more
issues
appearing
in
a
theme.
Although
an
article could deal mainly with one theme;
for
Cold
War,
another
category,
for
instance Nuclear Threat, could appear in
the
same
Definitions of
theme.
Themes
(Categories)
To determine the categories of the confrontations,
one was
judged by the
An
following criteria:
1.
Cold War:
If the actors in the dispute were
nations under the umbrella of NATO vs. nations
under the umbrella of the Warsaw Pact before
1990,
then it was a Cold War confrontation.
Any event that took place after the year 1990,
was considered non-Cold War.
:
2.
Nuclear Threat:
Any confrontation where the
threat of, or warning of the usage of nuclear
or atomic weapons, was considered as a nuclear
threat.
3.
Communist
Threat:
Wherever
the
summary
contained
a
tone
of
Soviet
military
aggression, the event was coded as a Communist
threat.
important
thing to
note
when coding
that if one incident is being coded,
shows
a
within
each
hint
its
of
another
category.
theme
For
incident
and the theme
(category)
example,
an
if
then
the
is
(category)
it
is
coded
incident
being
discussed is Cold War and there is mention of Nuclear Threat,
then
the
incident
is
coded
under
both
Cold
War
and
Nuclear
Threat.
The basic coding unit
for the purpose
of
this
research
42
was
the
entire
summaries
were
encouraged
entry.
summary.
to
If
difficult
read
further
to
in
fact
the
interpret,
back
to
the
themes
the
of
coders
beginning
the
were
of
that
If after researching from the beginning of a summary
issue, certain themes (categories) were unclear,
it was coded
as having no orientation for that theme.
Data Collection
The Atlanta University Center, Emory University, Decatur
public,
and
Georgia
collection of data.
of
critical
State
libraries
were
utilized
the
incidents
Facts
the
A table was made to illustrate the number
involving
NATO
by
year.
indicators of confrontations was constructed.
used
for
on
File
Weekly
Yearbook
A
list
of
The researcher
index
to
find
the
summaries of the events sampled.
A tally sheet was used to
record
summaries
the
results
of
the
coded
with
a
list
of
variables obtained from the summaries sampled.
Data Analysis
The writer
analyzed the results
associated with NATO
were
designed
confrontations
section,
to
to
involvement
show
the
the
to measure the
in confrontations.
frequency
categories
"Research Questions."
in
distributions
the
above
factors
Tables
of
the
mentioned
43
Findings
From
involving
the
sample
NATO,
substantial
the
number
confrontations.(see
taken
of
writer
the
4335
critical
found
that
from
of
them,
Table
1)
34.4%
From
were
the
incidents
1950-1993,
non-Cold
sample
taken,
a
War
the
research shows that 36.1% of the critical incidents involving
NATO
from
event
1950
from the
to
1993
were
sample had no
Cold
War
apparent
confrontations.
orientation.
One
Table
3
illustrates the frequency distributions of NATO's involvement
in non-Cold War confrontations.
Table 3.—Frequency Distribution of NATO's Involvement in
Non-Cold War Confrontations
Categories
n
Non-Cold War
40
34.4%
Cold War
42
36.1%
l
0.9%
3
2.6%
86
100%
No orientation
Years
no
Percentages
Indicators
Present
Total
Source:
Researcher's content analysis of events found in "Facts on File
Yearbooks 1950-1993:
The Indexed Record of World events," Facts on File
Yearbook
(New York, N.Y.:
Facts on File, Inc., 1950-1993). * Total not
equal
to
100 due to rounding off.
These
questions.
quantitative
findings
The researcher asks,
relate
to
the
research
"How much was NATO involved
44
in non-Cold War conflicts from 1950 to 1993?"
Another question that the researcher asks is,
"How much
was NATO involved in conflicts where nuclear war was not a
threat from 1950 to 1993?"
From the sample taken, there were
55.0% of confrontations where nuclear war was not a threat
from 1950-1993.
This relatively high percentage shows NATO's
relevance beyond its nuclear capability.
that
The research shows
15.5% of the conflicts that NATO was involved in the
sample from 1950 to 1993, nuclear war was a threat.
One event
had no apparent orientation.
For three years, there were no
indicators
4
present.
Table
illustrates
the
frequency
distribution of NATO's involvement in confrontations by threat
of nuclear war.
Table 4.—Frequency Distribution of NATO's Involvement in
Confrontations Where Nuclear War was not a Threat
Percentages
Nuclear War
not
a Threat
64
55 .0%
Nuclear War
a Threat
15 .5%
No orientation
0 .9%
Years no Indicators
Present
Total
2 .6%
86
100%
on
'Inc-
llltl
45
As
can
involvement
be
seen
in
in
Table
confrontations
5,
from
control of Communism was not a threat
55.9%.
taken
The
extent
from the
threat
from
of
sample
1950
to
NATO's
where
1993
extent
of
the
sample
where
from
involvement
the
was
indicators were present.
the
control
15.5%.
Table
5
1950 to
in
of
For
NATO's
the
1993 was
confrontations
Communism was
three
years,
a
no
illustrates the frequency
distribution of NATO's involvement in confrontations by threat
of
communist control.
Table 5.—Frequency Distribution of NATO's Involvement in
Confrontations Where Communist Control
was
a
Threat
Categories
n
Communist Control
not a Threat
65
55.9%
18
15.5%
No orientation
o
0.0%
Years no
Present
3
2.6%
86
100%
Communist
Control
a Threat
Total
Percentages
Indicators
Source:
Researcher's content analysis of events found in "Facts on File
Yearbooks 1950-1993:
The Indexed Record of World events," Facts on File
Yearbook (New York, N.Y.:
Facts on File, Inc., 1950-1993). * Total not
equal to 100 due to rounding off.
This quantitative finding relates to the research question,
"How much was NATO involved in conflicts where
the forceful
46
implementation of communist control was not a threat from 1950
to 1993?"
high
The research illustrates NATO's involvement in a
percentage
of
confrontations
where
the
forceful
implementation of communist control was not a threat.
findings indicate that
the scope
These
of NATO's involvement
in
conflicts has spanned beyond the communist threat and leads us
to believe that it will continue to do so in the future.
As a content analysis, this study provides an overview of
NATO's involvement in aggressive confrontations from 1950 to
1993.
Our
substantial
findings
number of
show
non
that
NATO
Cold War
was
involved
conflicts,
non
threat conflicts and non communist threat conflicts.
in
a
nuclear
CHAPTER
5
CONCLUSIONS
NATO was formulated to fight the spread of communism into
Western Europe.
The bankruptcy of communism has permitted us
to
in the
see
a change
economic
systems of
the
countries
in
the former Soviet Union to one of a twist of Western culture
with a free-market.
Relations between The North Atlantic Treaty Organization
and the Republics of the former Soviet Union today seem to be
changing for the
two
entities
has
better.
Fear of
diminished.
nuclear war between these
Former
Warsaw
Pact
members,
including Russia, are seeking participation in NATO.
needed in the world today?
My quantitative analysis of past
events helps us to answer this question for the
As a content analysis,
Is NATO
future.
this study provides an overview of
NATO involvement in aggressive confrontations from, 1950-1993.
The
research
found that NATO was
involved
in confrontations
whose characteristics were not always in the realm of Cold War
tensions or related to fighting the spread of communism.
The
findings show that NATO was involved in a substantial number
of non Cold War conflicts,
non
communist
threat
non nuclear threat conflicts,
conflicts.
47
This,
coupled
with
and
NATO's
48
involvement in the war in Bosnia and its expansion with its
adoption of its "Partnership for Peace" program,
leads us to
conclude that NATO will be a relevant institution in the Post
Cold War era.
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