11/5/2009
Energy Efficiency in Appalachia
How much more is available, at what cost, and by when?
Partners: Alliance to Save Energy Alliance to Save Energy Mission: „
To promote energy efficiency worldwide to achieve a healthier economy, a cleaner environment, and greater energy security.
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Leaders
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Staffed by 50+ professionals
31 years of experience in policy, research, education, communications, technology deployment and market transformation
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Leaders
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Academia
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Partners
The American Council for an Energy‐
Efficient Economy is a nonprofit, 501(c)(3) organization dedicated to advancing energy efficiency as a means of promoting economic prosperity, energy security, and environmental protection. •Conducting in‐depth technical and policy analyses •Advising policymakers and program managers •Working collaboratively with businesses, government officials, public interest groups, and other organizations •Convening conferences and workshops, primarily for energy efficiency professionals •Assisting and encouraging the media to A i ti
d
i th
di t
cover energy efficiency policy and technology issues •Educating businesses and consumers through our reports, books, conference proceedings, and media outreach
Founded on October 13, 1885, the Georgia School of Technology opened its doors in October 1888 to eighty‐four students. The School's creation signaled the beginning of the transformation of the agrarian South to an industrial economy During its first fifty years Tech
economy. During its first fifty years, Tech grew from a narrowly focused trade school to a regionally recognized technological university.
In 1948, the School's name was changed to the Georgia Institute of Technology to reflect a growing focus on advanced technological and scientific research. Women students were admitted in 1952, and in 1961 Georgia Tech became the first university in the Deep South to admit African American students without a court order.
The Appalachian Region
• All of West Virginia and parts of 12 other states
• 410 counties
• Divided into 3 Sub‐
regions and many Local Development Districts
• The Appalachian Regional Commission
Regional Commission (ARC) was created by the Federal Government in 1965
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Organization
• Energy Use in Appalachia
• Methodology
• Energy Efficiency Potential for Appalachia
– Results Overview – Most Impactful Policies
– Transformative Technologies
– Potential By Fuel and By Sector
– Benefit‐Cost Analysis
– Sensitivity of Results
• M
Macroeconomic Impacts: Jobs, Wages, GRP
i I
J b W
GRP
• Summary of Southeast Electric Efficiency Potential Studies
Energy Use in Appalachia vs. the U.S.: More Residential and Less Industrial
35%
32.7%
30.5%
30%
28.4%
27.9%
25%
22.7%
20.9%
20%
18.0%
18.9%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
U.S.
Transportation
Appalachia
Energy Consumption Shares by End‐Use Sectors, 2006 (EIA, 2008)
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Energy Use in Appalachia vs. the U.S.: More Coal & Nuclear, Less Natural Gas & Renewables United States
Appalachia
Nuclear
20.8%
Nuclear
25%
Renewable
9.5%
Coal
51.8%
Renewable
5%
Coal
57%
Electricity Imports
0.2%
Electricity Imports
0%
Fuel Oil
Fuel
Oil
1.6%
Fuel Oil
2%
Natural Gas
16.2%
Natural Gas
11%
Energy Consumption for Electric Power Generation, 2006 (EIA, 2008a)
Energy Efficiency Programs in Appalachia
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
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Of more than 150 policies identified: 91% at the state level and 9% at the local level.
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Methodology
• Baseline forecast ~ population weighted from EIA’s AEO 2008 Reference Case
• Population estimates were generated by county using REMI data and mapped to Census divisions
• Estimates of savings and costs modeled by policy based on previous studies
policy based on previous studies
• Macroeconomic impacts (employment and income effects) modeled using DEEPER Fifteen Policies are Modeled
Residential
Buildings
Commercial
Buildings
Industry
Transportation
Improved Building
Energy Code with Third
Party Verification and
Compliance Incentive
Commercial Building
Energy Codes with Third
Party Verification and
Compliance Incentives
Expanded Industrial
Assessment Centers
Pay-as-You-Drive
Insurance
Expanded Weatherization
Assistance Programs
Support for
Commissioning of
Existing Commercial
Buildings
Increasing Energy
Savings Assessments
Clean Car Standards
Residential Retrofit
Incentive with Resale
Energy Labeling and
I
Incremental
t l Cost
C t
Incentives
Efficient Commercial
HVAC and Lighting
R t fit Incentive
Retrofit
I
ti
Supporting Combined
Heat and Power (CHP)
with
ith Incentive
I
ti
SmartWay Heavy Truck
ff
y Loan Program
g
Efficiency
Tightened Office
Tightened Residential
Equipment Standards
Appliance Standards with
with Efficient Use
Incentive
Incentives
Speed Limit Enforcement
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Results: Cost‐Competitive Energy Efficiency Could Save 2.5 Quads by 2030
11.5
11.0
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
2006
2009
2012
AEO 2007
2015
2018
2021
AEO 2008
2024
2027
2030
With Policy Packages
Energy Efficiency Potential in Appalachia Spans All Sectors
3.0
2.5
Quadrillion Btu
Quadrillion Btu
10.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
05
0.5
0.0
Commercial
Buildings
Residential
Buildings
Transportation
Scenario with Efficiency Policy Packages
Industrial Facilities
EIA Baseline Forecast
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Savings by Sector: Commercial & Industrial Savings Dominate
Transportation
457
18%
Residential
374
15%
Industrial
621
25%
Commercial
1030
42%
Savings by Fuel
Motor Gasoline
432
17%
Diesel
24.8
1%
Fuel Oil
34.5
1%
Natural Gas
282
11%
Electricity
1710
70%
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Energy Efficiency in Appalachia could offset:
• By 2020
20 new coal
new coal‐fired
fired •
• ≈20
electric power plants
AND
• 63 million barrels of oil – about 3% of U.S. •
production in 2007 or
production in 2007 or 2.6 million light‐duty vehicles
• By 2030
≈40 new coal fired
≈40 new coal‐fired electric power plants
AND 182 million barrels of oil – about 10% of U.S. production in 2007 or 6.7 million LDVs
Most Impactful Polices
• Efficient Commercial HVAC and Lighting Retrofit Incentive (447 trillion Btu)
• Expanded Industrial Assessment Centers
E
d dI d
i lA
C
(413 illi
(413 trillion Btu)
• Support for Commissioning of Existing Commercial Buildings (391 trillion Btu)
• Clean Car Standards (338 trillion Btu)
• Residential Retrofit Incentive with Resale Energy Labeling and Incremental Cost Incentives (180 trillion Btu)
* Energy savings reported are annual savings in the year 2030
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Macroeconomic Impacts: >77,000 Net New Jobs in 2030
Macroeconomic Macroeconomic
Impacts
Jobs (Actual)
2010
2020
2030
16,200
37,300
77,300
Wages (Million $2006)
$517
$1,169
$3018
GRP (Million $2006)
$763
$1,197
$3056
Year by Year Jobs from EE Package
80
70
Jobs (thousands)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
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Acknowledgements
• The authors wish to express our appreciation to the project’s Advisory and Stakeholders Committees. Members of the Advisory Committee are: – Carl Bauer (NETL), Ray Boeman (ORNL), Tom Congdon (State of New York), Richard Hirsh (Virginia Tech), Carl Irwin (West Virginia University) , Richard Newell (Duke University), & Tony Wright (ORNL).
• Members of the Stakeholders Committee are: Members of the Stakeholders Committee are:
– John Davies (Kentucky Governor’s Office of Energy Policy), Joe Hoagland (Tennessee Valley Authority), and Joel Yudken (High Road Strategies).
• We also wish to thank Jeff Harris, Steve Capanna, and Nils Petermann (Alliance to Save Energy), Neal Elliott (American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy), Younsun Baek and Frank Southworth (Georgia Tech); Charles Zeh (NETL), and Etan Gumerman (Duke University) for their insights and review comments. Contact
Ben Taube
Executive Director
Southeast Energy Efficiency Alliance
Atlanta, GA
Phone: 404‐931‐1518
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.seealliance.org
www.seealliance.org
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