Toward a sustainable energy future in Brazil and IIASA’s MESSAGE Model
André F.P. Lucena, Alexandre Szklo and Roberto Schaeffer
April 25th 2017
CENERGIA – COPPE
• Professors
– Roberto Schaeffer
– Alexandre Szklo
– André F P Lucena
• Researchers
– Around ten M.Sc. students, ten D.Sc. students
and four Pos‐Docs (one third of the researchers
are from abroad)
Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) Research
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1999: beginning of collaboration with UN‐IAEA  developing and implementing IAM based on the use of IIASA’s MESSAGE (MSG) platform
Since then, over fifteen versions of the MSG‐Brazil model have been developed by our team
As of November 2016  the first full version of COFFEE (MSB‐Global) is operational (land use and energy)
Recent developments include:
– Land Use
– Water resources
– Local air pollution
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But all of this has only been made possible given the large number of supporting studies done by our group: almost 100 papers recently published (associated with energy modelling + PhD thesis + Master Dissertation + technical reports)  Large support from IIASA
Development of MESSAGE‐Brazil
Development of MESSAGE‐Brazil
• Time Resolution
Base year: 2010
 Kept
Horizon: 2010‐
2050 each 5 years
 Kept
Seasonality: 4 seasons
12 months
Load curve: 5 sections
24 hours
Development of MESSAGE‐Brazil
• Spatial Resolution
3 regions
(only electricity
system)
6 regions
(electricity, gas, oil, oil
products and CO2)
Development of MESSAGE‐Brazil
• Technological representation
Around 300 technologies
Around 8000 Technologies (by macrorregions)
• Including detailed representation of final end‐uses and energy services
MESSAGE‐Brazil: recent applications
• Secretaria de Assuntos Estratégicos da Presidência da República (SAE)
– Energy Mix Scenarios for Brazil under Different Carbon Prices
– Brazil 2040 – Climate Change Adaptation in Brazil: scenarios and alternatives
• Ministério de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (MCTI)
– Project “Mitigation Options of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions in Key Sectors in Brazil”
• A full hybrid integrated model to support Brazil’s NDC
MESSAGE‐Brazil: recent developments
• The BLUES model ‐ Brazil Land‐Use and Energy Systems Model
– Includes a representation of the land‐use system:
• Forests, savannas, low‐ and high‐capacity pastures, integrated systems, cropland, double cropping, planted forests, protected areas
– Land Use transitions matrix:
Cropland
Double Cropping
Forest
Low Cap Pasture
Planted Forest
Savanna
High Cap Pasture
Integrated Systems
Recovered Pastures
Managed Forests
COFFEE – COmputable Framework For Energy and the Environment
• Objective
– To develop a global energy model, with a detailed representation of
Brazil
• Most compreensive effort of this kind outside Europe, Japan and the US
• First step for the development of a full integrated assessment model (IAM) for climate mitigation outside Europe, Japan and the US
– To assess the role of Brazil, the BRICS countries, or any other country in climate stabilization scenarios
COFFEE’s Regional Representation
• RCP
18
Regions
COFFEE – Methodology
• Model structure: energy system
– Supply (production and distribution) and demand
COFFEE – Inovative CCS modelling approach
• Carbon transport and storage
– Original approach for an IAM
– Storage potential by region, with a differentiation by:
• Type of reservoir: oil fields (EOR), gas fields and aquifers (2 types)
– Injection costs
• Distance
– Transport costs
– Literature revision for factors and potential estimates
– Assessment with the use of GIS tools
COFFEE – Methodology
• Model structure: land system
COFFEE – Land‐use and Agriculture
• Land cover
– Biophysical surface cover
– Deployment of 7 distinct categories
• 2 non‐suited: “Not Suited” and “Flooded”
COFFEE – Land‐use and Agriculture
• Productivity
– Simplification of agriculture productivity and land profitability
• Productivity index
• Limitations of this methodology (Ex: assessment of yields)
COFFEE – Land‐use and Agriculture
• Distance
– Associated with profitability (transport cost)
– Indirectly proportional to time of travel
• Information available at level of detail required
• Simplified methodology and similar to other global models
COFFEE – Final Considerations
• Contributions
– A global energy IAM developed with success (less than 10 groups in the
world have this, and this will be key for the IPCC 1.5oC Special Report)
• This is a first step towards a full IAM model
• First effort of this kind outside Europe, Japan and the US
• Capable of providing key elements for experts and policy makers alike on
mitigation strategies and long‐term implications of climate scenarios
– Important tool for Brazil in future climate mitigation negotiations
• Tool and methodology at the state‐of‐the‐art level in the literature
– Also useful when used together with regional and national models, with
a very fine detail for Brazil (Ex: MSG‐Brasil)
Collaboration with IIASA
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IIASA's Young Scientists Summer Program –
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2013: Pedro Rochedo  development of MESSAGE‐Brazil and COFFE
2016: Alex Koberle  SSP representation and migration to GAMS
2016: Eveline Vasquez  water resources modelling
2017: Esperanza Gonzalez  zero energy buildings
Other IIASA researcher exchange – 2015: Joana Portugal‐Pereira  GAINS
– 2017: Mariana Império  climate modeling (MAGICC)
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Joint Research Projects and other initiatives
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MILES
CD‐Links
IAMC
TWI2050
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Obrigado