The demographic transition model – an investigation using Gapminder
A simple demographic transition model shows how birth and death rates for a country change
over time. Originally four stages were identified; in recent years a fifth stage has been added to
the model.
If the birth rate is greater than the death rate, the population will increase and if the death rate
is greater than the birth rate, then the population will naturally decline.
Student tasks
Graph used courtesy of AQA
1. Using the demographic transition model below, complete the table below by writing one of
the letters A to D against the correct statement. N.B. One box will be left empty.
Statement
Letter
Contraception becomes more common and the birth rate falls.
People have many children due to high infant mortality rates.
Birth and death rates increase at the same rate.
Medical advances reduce the death rate.
The rate of natural increase is very high.
© www.teachitgeography.co.uk 2015
24074
Page 1 of 3
Graph used courtesy of Charmed88
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition
The demographic transition model – an investigation using Gapminder
The demographic transition
model is usually drawn with a
third line to show the change in
total population
2. What will happen to the population of a country if the birth and death rates are
identical? .................................................................................................
..............................................................................................................
3. How might the population of a country increase even if the birth and death rates were
identical? .................................................................................................
..............................................................................................................
4. Watch the video clip ‘200 countries, 200 years, 4 minutes’ at
http://www.gapminder.org/videos/. Write one sentence to explain the single most
important fact from the video clip.
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
5. Next click the Gapminder World tab to open the graph of ‘Wealth and Health.’
© www.teachitgeography.co.uk 2015
24074
Page 2 of 3
The demographic transition model – an investigation using Gapminder
Graph used courtesy of Gapminder
http://www.gapminder.org/
6. Change the axes of the graph to show Crude birth rates and Crude death rates (use the
arrow buttons on each axis to find the Population category then the Population Growth
category which contains the crude birth and death rates.
N.B. Make sure the Crude birth rate is shown on the horizontal x axis and the Crude death
rate on the y axis. The graph should look like this:
7. Click on the ‘Play’ button to show how countries’ birth and death rates have changed
over time. You may wish to slow the speed.
8. Investigate the demographic changes over time in a selection of different countries using
the list in the column on the right.
Hint - clicking on the ‘trail’ box gives a nice effect!
9. Select three countries to fit stages 2, 3 and 4 of the demographic transition model from
the 2013 graph.
N.B. You are unlikely to find a country to fit Stage 1 for 2013.
10. Using the ‘Print screen’ button, copy and paste this graph into a Word document.
11. Label each country with its stage of the demographic transition model and detail the
evidence you have used to decide why each of the three countries fit the relevant stage.
Extension task
1. Which countries are currently in stage 5 of the demographic transition model? ..............
..............................................................................................................
..............................................................................................................
© www.teachitgeography.co.uk 2015
24074
Page 3 of 3