Report: Measure Correlate Predict

Project:
Cronalaght demonstration - Energy calculation
Description:
Licensed user:
This project primarily illustrates how to calculate energy production, based on
either EU-Wind Atlas data, or on local measurements. Also ATLAS contra WASP is
illustrated, and the powerfull VISUAL module for excact positioning of the WTGs,
measuremasts etc. And the Auto optimization of the camera propertied - try the
Air View photo, this would be impossible to find the exact photo point without
this feature.
The data is fully renewed in WindPRO 2.8 - it turned out the coordinate system
was NOT Irish Grid, but Irish Transverse Mercator. And the turbine positions
thereby also some wrong - they was found exact on Google map. These
modifications brought many "not too well fitting" photomontages to an exact fit.
Lesson learned: If things do not fit fully, something is wrong with your data!
Also the ned 2.8 elevation grid object is demonstrated.
EMD International A/S
Niels Jernes Vej 10
DK-9220 Aalborg Ø
+45 9635 4444
Per Madsen / [email protected]
Calculated:
06-08-2015 10:38/3.0.628
MCP - Detailed Statgen
Calculation: Based on Mreea data
Name
Cronalaght met mast (Regression MCP using MERRA_basic_W07.999_N55.000 (6))
Source
USER
Country
Ireland
Site coordinates
ITM East: 584.145 North: 923.908
Comments
From MCP
Mean wind speed [m/s]
Height
[m]
10,0
25,0
50,0
100,0
200,0
Mean wind speed [m/s]
Roughness class: 1; Height: 50 m
Roughness class/Length
0
1
2
3
4
0,00 m 0,03 m 0,10 m 0,40 m 1,50 m
8,88
6,49
5,65
4,44
2,95
9,68
7,64
6,88
5,78
4,43
10,33
8,64
7,91
6,87
5,60
11,05
9,86
9,12
8,10
6,88
11,88 11,45 10,63
9,56
8,33
9,5
0,8
9
0,6
8,5
0,4
8
0
Wind energy [kWh/m2/Year]
Height
[m]
10,0
25,0
50,0
100,0
200,0
(Energy) [MWh/m2/Year]
Roughness class: 1; Height: 50 m
7,5
Roughness class/Length
0
1
2
3
4
0,00 m 0,03 m 0,10 m 0,40 m 1,50 m
6.866 2.886 1.900
916
267
8.762 4.522 3.301 1.955
876
10.424 6.170 4.771 3.145 1.710
12.844 8.578 6.802 4.813 2.986
16.246 13.604 10.867 7.865 5.176
0,2
7,5
0
-100
-200
0
0
0
-200
-100
0
0,2
8
0,4
8,5
0,6
9
0,8
9,5
frequency
Wind speed
(Energy)
WTG energy [kWh/m2/Year]
Normal rated WTG (0.45 kW/m2)
High wind rated WTG (0.55 kW/m2)
Low wind rated WTG (0.35 kW/m2)
Roughness class/Length
Roughness class/Length
Roughness class/Length
Height
0
1
2
3
4
Height
0
1
2
3
4
Height
0
1
2
3
4
[m] 0,00 m 0,03 m 0,10 m 0,40 m 1,50 m [m] 0,00 m 0,03 m 0,10 m 0,40 m 1,50 m [m] 0,00 m 0,03 m 0,10 m 0,40 m 1,50 m
10,0 1.400
846
619
318
30
10,0 1.637
916
655
307
25
10,0 1.840
970
678
307
19
25,0 1.590 1.156
955
652
315
25,0 1.840 1.278 1.040
693
304
25,0 2.083 1.409 1.114
719
303
50,0 1.718 1.358 1.226
953
606
50,0 1.968 1.568 1.361 1.038
641
50,0 2.237 1.760 1.513 1.112
663
956
100,0 2.071 1.884 1.699 1.418 1.041 100,0 2.361 2.136 1.915 1.582 1.115 100,0 1.821 1.634 1.449 1.267
200,0 2.144 2.106 2.013 1.810 1.482 200,0 2.447 2.402 2.291 2.048 1.659 200,0 1.894 1.856 1.763 1.560 1.306
Key numbers
Wind energy is relative to 3300 kWh/m2/year for roughness class 1 and 50 m hub height
WTG energy is relative to 1025 kWh/m2/year for roughness class 1 and 50 m hub height
Name
Distance Wind energy WTG energy
[km]
[%]
[%]
Current wind statistic
187,0
153,0
30,0 m Cronalaght met mast
Cronalaght met mast - A 30,00 m
0,0
0,0
213,0
209,1
164,6
163,2
windPRO 3.0.628 by EMD International A/S, Tel. +45 96 35 44 44, www.emd.dk, [email protected]
06-08-2015 10:38 / 1
windPRO
Project:
Cronalaght demonstration - Energy calculation
Description:
Licensed user:
This project primarily illustrates how to calculate energy production, based on
either EU-Wind Atlas data, or on local measurements. Also ATLAS contra WASP is
illustrated, and the powerfull VISUAL module for excact positioning of the WTGs,
measuremasts etc. And the Auto optimization of the camera propertied - try the
Air View photo, this would be impossible to find the exact photo point without
this feature.
The data is fully renewed in WindPRO 2.8 - it turned out the coordinate system
was NOT Irish Grid, but Irish Transverse Mercator. And the turbine positions
thereby also some wrong - they was found exact on Google map. These
modifications brought many "not too well fitting" photomontages to an exact fit.
Lesson learned: If things do not fit fully, something is wrong with your data!
Also the ned 2.8 elevation grid object is demonstrated.
EMD International A/S
Niels Jernes Vej 10
DK-9220 Aalborg Ø
+45 9635 4444
Per Madsen / [email protected]
Calculated:
06-08-2015 10:38/3.0.628
MCP - Main report Regression MCP
Calculation: Based on Mreea data
1: Local measurements (site data)
Height
Period
Mean wind speed
Filters used
Cronalaght met mast
30,00 m
14-01-1994 to 09-04-1996 2,2 years
9,40 m/s
Not Filtered
2: Long term reference
Height
Period
Mean wind speed
Filters used
MERRA_basic_W07.999_N55.000 (6)
50,00 m
01-01-1982 to 31-03-2012 30,2 years
8,10 m/s
Not Filtered
Calculation setup
Find transfer function for each 1 degree
30,00 [deg]
360,00
2,00
Linear (1st order polynomial)
Constant (0th order polynomial)
Advanced Gaussian: Mean and std.dev. conditioned on wind speed modelled as polynominals (Of order: 1)
No model
Results
Expected long term WTG energy direction distribution AT SITE
30,0 m
9,09 m/s
50,0 m
9,65 m/s
187,0
153,0
0,7755
2,9826 m/s
0,9929
4,1231 %
06-08-2015 10:36
W
16 %
E
N
Hub height: 50,0
NN
Measure height a.g.l.
Mean wind in measure height
Key height a.g.l.
Mean wind in key height
Wind energy
WTG energy
r - wind speed
s - wind speed
r - wind index
s - wind index
Time of calculation
NN
Method
Sector window
Skip angle differences larger than
Skip wind speeds less than
Regression model (wind speed)
Regression model (wind direction)
Wind speed model - use residual resampling
Wind direction model - use residual resampling
14 %
12 %
W
10 %
NW
E
EN
8%
6%
4%
2%
W
E
0%
ES
E
E
SS
S
SS
W
W
WS
Comparing measured and predicted data
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
15-02-1994
16-04-1994
15-06-1994
14-08-1994
13-10-1994
12-12-1994
10-02-1995
11-04-1995
Predicted (Energy)
windPRO 3.0.628 by EMD International A/S, Tel. +45 96 35 44 44, www.emd.dk, [email protected]
10-06-1995
09-08-1995
08-10-1995
07-12-1995
05-02-1996
05-04-1996
Measured (Energy)
06-08-2015 10:38 / 2
windPRO
Project:
Cronalaght demonstration - Energy calculation
Description:
Licensed user:
This project primarily illustrates how to calculate energy production, based on
either EU-Wind Atlas data, or on local measurements. Also ATLAS contra WASP is
illustrated, and the powerfull VISUAL module for excact positioning of the WTGs,
measuremasts etc. And the Auto optimization of the camera propertied - try the
Air View photo, this would be impossible to find the exact photo point without
this feature.
The data is fully renewed in WindPRO 2.8 - it turned out the coordinate system
was NOT Irish Grid, but Irish Transverse Mercator. And the turbine positions
thereby also some wrong - they was found exact on Google map. These
modifications brought many "not too well fitting" photomontages to an exact fit.
Lesson learned: If things do not fit fully, something is wrong with your data!
Also the ned 2.8 elevation grid object is demonstrated.
EMD International A/S
Niels Jernes Vej 10
DK-9220 Aalborg Ø
+45 9635 4444
Per Madsen / [email protected]
Calculated:
06-08-2015 10:38/3.0.628
MCP - Regression MCP report (basic/overview)
Calculation: Based on Mreea data
MCP method used:
Regression MCP
Mean w ind speed in data
Long term reference data:
MERRA_basic_W07.999_N55.000 (6)
Height: 50,00
Long term reference data
Concurrent reference data:
Concurrent reference data
Height: 0,00
Concurrent site data:
Cronalaght met mast
Height: 30,00
Concurrent site data
MCP result (long term site data)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
[m/s]
Timelines of MCP source data and result
Only the overlapping and enabled parts of the concurrent data are used
W
E
10
NN
NN
N
Mean value [m/s]
8
WN
W
Long term reference data
E
EN
6
4
2
Concurrent site data (Only the overlapping part is used)
W
E
0
MCP result (long term site data)
ES
E
SW
MCP result (long term site data)
12-1981
12-1982
12-1983
12-1984
12-1985
12-1986
12-1987
12-1988
12-1989
12-1990
12-1991
12-1992
12-1993
12-1994
12-1995
12-1996
12-1997
12-1998
12-1999
12-2000
12-2001
12-2002
12-2003
12-2004
12-2005
12-2006
12-2007
12-2008
12-2009
12-2010
12-2011
frequency [%]
10
80.000
E
EN
60.000
WN
W
6
4
20.000
2
ES
E
SW
windPRO 3.0.628 by EMD International A/S, Tel. +45 96 35 44 44, www.emd.dk, [email protected]
ES
E
SW
Concurrent site data
E
SS
MCP result (long term site data)
W
E
0
S
E
SS
S
Concurrent site data
W
SS
W
E
0
SS
W
W
E
EN
8
40.000
W
E
12
100.000
WN
W
14
NN
W
W
120.000
NN
E
NN
NN
N
Energy [W/m2]
N
Concurrent site data
E
SS
S
SS
W
W
MCP result (long term site data)
06-08-2015 10:38 / 3
windPRO
Project:
Cronalaght demonstration - Energy calculation
Description:
Licensed user:
This project primarily illustrates how to calculate energy production, based on
either EU-Wind Atlas data, or on local measurements. Also ATLAS contra WASP is
illustrated, and the powerfull VISUAL module for excact positioning of the WTGs,
measuremasts etc. And the Auto optimization of the camera propertied - try the
Air View photo, this would be impossible to find the exact photo point without
this feature.
The data is fully renewed in WindPRO 2.8 - it turned out the coordinate system
was NOT Irish Grid, but Irish Transverse Mercator. And the turbine positions
thereby also some wrong - they was found exact on Google map. These
modifications brought many "not too well fitting" photomontages to an exact fit.
Lesson learned: If things do not fit fully, something is wrong with your data!
Also the ned 2.8 elevation grid object is demonstrated.
EMD International A/S
Niels Jernes Vej 10
DK-9220 Aalborg Ø
+45 9635 4444
Per Madsen / [email protected]
Calculated:
06-08-2015 10:38/3.0.628
MCP - Regression MCP report - details on wind speed fit
Calculation: Based on Mreea data
Winds in sector 0 degrees
Winds in sector 120 degrees
Winds in sector 240 degrees
30
30
30
25
25
25
20
20
20
15
15
15
10
10
10
5
5
5
0
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Winds in sector 30 degrees
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Winds in sector 150 degrees
Winds in sector 270 degrees
30
30
30
25
25
25
20
20
20
15
15
15
10
10
10
5
5
5
0
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Winds in sector 60 degrees
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Winds in sector 180 degrees
Winds in sector 300 degrees
30
30
30
25
25
25
20
20
20
15
15
15
10
10
10
5
5
5
0
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Winds in sector 90 degrees
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Winds in sector 210 degrees
Winds in sector 330 degrees
30
30
30
25
25
25
20
20
20
15
15
15
10
10
10
5
5
5
0
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
windPRO 3.0.628 by EMD International A/S, Tel. +45 96 35 44 44, www.emd.dk, [email protected]
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
06-08-2015 10:38 / 4
windPRO
Project:
Cronalaght demonstration - Energy calculation
Description:
Licensed user:
This project primarily illustrates how to calculate energy production, based on
either EU-Wind Atlas data, or on local measurements. Also ATLAS contra WASP is
illustrated, and the powerfull VISUAL module for excact positioning of the WTGs,
measuremasts etc. And the Auto optimization of the camera propertied - try the
Air View photo, this would be impossible to find the exact photo point without
this feature.
The data is fully renewed in WindPRO 2.8 - it turned out the coordinate system
was NOT Irish Grid, but Irish Transverse Mercator. And the turbine positions
thereby also some wrong - they was found exact on Google map. These
modifications brought many "not too well fitting" photomontages to an exact fit.
Lesson learned: If things do not fit fully, something is wrong with your data!
Also the ned 2.8 elevation grid object is demonstrated.
EMD International A/S
Niels Jernes Vej 10
DK-9220 Aalborg Ø
+45 9635 4444
Per Madsen / [email protected]
Calculated:
06-08-2015 10:38/3.0.628
MCP - Regression MCP report - details on wind veer fit
Calculation: Based on Mreea data
Wind veer in sector 0 degrees
Wind veer in sector 120 degrees
Wind veer in sector 240 degrees
150
150
150
100
100
100
50
50
50
0
0
0
-50
-50
-50
-100
-100
-100
-150
-150
-150
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Wind veer in sector 30 degrees
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Wind veer in sector 150 degrees
Wind veer in sector 270 degrees
150
150
150
100
100
100
50
50
50
0
0
0
-50
-50
-50
-100
-100
-100
-150
-150
-150
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Wind veer in sector 60 degrees
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Wind veer in sector 180 degrees
Wind veer in sector 300 degrees
150
150
150
100
100
100
50
50
50
0
0
0
-50
-50
-50
-100
-100
-100
-150
-150
-150
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Wind veer in sector 90 degrees
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Wind veer in sector 210 degrees
Wind veer in sector 330 degrees
150
150
150
100
100
100
50
50
50
0
0
0
-50
-50
-50
-100
-100
-100
-150
-150
-150
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
windPRO 3.0.628 by EMD International A/S, Tel. +45 96 35 44 44, www.emd.dk, [email protected]
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
06-08-2015 10:38 / 5
windPRO
Project:
Cronalaght demonstration - Energy calculation
Description:
Licensed user:
This project primarily illustrates how to calculate energy production, based on
either EU-Wind Atlas data, or on local measurements. Also ATLAS contra WASP is
illustrated, and the powerfull VISUAL module for excact positioning of the WTGs,
measuremasts etc. And the Auto optimization of the camera propertied - try the
Air View photo, this would be impossible to find the exact photo point without
this feature.
The data is fully renewed in WindPRO 2.8 - it turned out the coordinate system
was NOT Irish Grid, but Irish Transverse Mercator. And the turbine positions
thereby also some wrong - they was found exact on Google map. These
modifications brought many "not too well fitting" photomontages to an exact fit.
Lesson learned: If things do not fit fully, something is wrong with your data!
Also the ned 2.8 elevation grid object is demonstrated.
EMD International A/S
Niels Jernes Vej 10
DK-9220 Aalborg Ø
+45 9635 4444
Per Madsen / [email protected]
Calculated:
06-08-2015 10:38/3.0.628
MCP - Regression MCP report - details on wind speed residuals (Gauss paper)
Calculation: Based on Mreea data
Wind Residuals (Sector 0 deg)
Wind Residuals (Sector 120 deg)
Wind Residuals (Sector 240 deg)
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-5
-5
-5 -4,5-4 -3,5 -3-2,5 -2 -1,5-1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5
-5
-5 -4,5-4 -3,5 -3-2,5 -2 -1,5-1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5
Wind Residuals (Sector 30 deg)
-5 -4,5-4 -3,5 -3-2,5 -2 -1,5-1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5
Wind Residuals (Sector 150 deg)
Wind Residuals (Sector 270 deg)
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-5
-5
-5 -4,5-4 -3,5 -3-2,5 -2 -1,5-1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5
-5
-5 -4,5-4 -3,5 -3-2,5 -2 -1,5-1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5
Wind Residuals (Sector 60 deg)
-5 -4,5-4 -3,5 -3-2,5 -2 -1,5-1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5
Wind Residuals (Sector 180 deg)
Wind Residuals (Sector 300 deg)
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-5
-5
-5 -4,5-4 -3,5 -3-2,5 -2 -1,5-1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5
-5
-5 -4,5-4 -3,5 -3-2,5 -2 -1,5-1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5
Wind Residuals (Sector 90 deg)
-5 -4,5-4 -3,5 -3-2,5 -2 -1,5-1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5
Wind Residuals (Sector 210 deg)
Wind Residuals (Sector 330 deg)
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-5
-5
-5 -4,5-4 -3,5 -3-2,5 -2 -1,5-1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5
-5
-5 -4,5-4 -3,5 -3-2,5 -2 -1,5-1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5
windPRO 3.0.628 by EMD International A/S, Tel. +45 96 35 44 44, www.emd.dk, [email protected]
-5 -4,5-4 -3,5 -3-2,5 -2 -1,5-1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5
06-08-2015 10:38 / 6
windPRO