INTERSTA
ATE M
MIGR
RATIO
ON FOR NSW
W
N
NSW Po
opulatiion Pro
ojection Assu
umptio
ons The large n
net gain o
of migran
nts to NSW
W from o
overseas is offset, in part, by the of peoplee from NSW to otther parts of Austtralia. Refflecting aa continued net loss o
on of longgstanding pattern
ns, the 20
014 popu
ulation projection
ns are based continuatio
oss of 20,000. Thee majoritty of inteerstate moves aree on a long‐term annual net lo
he more populous metrop
politan arreas. between th
The most unpredictable and alsso the most crritical dem
mographic process affectingg population ch
hange in NSW
W is migration ‐ not on
nly the movem
ment of overseeas travellers and migrants but also the movement of people between NSW
W and other parts of Australia. FFigure 1: Net interrstate migration eestimates, NSW, 11971/72 to 2010//11
Historic Trendss W has a well‐eestablished patttern of intersstate migration NSW
lossses to other paarts of Australia. Interstate migration estimates publish
hed by the Ausstralian Bureau of Statistics show
w that net interstate migrattion losses fro
om NSW have rangged between aa small net gain of 2,000 (in
n 1977/78, 1979/80) to a peaak migration lo
oss of almost 9) (Figure 1). ‐38,,000 (1988/89
The net result maasks consideraable variation in the flows in
nto and out of NSW. A
Annual variatiions in the number of people leavving the state are the key drriver of the irrregularity in th
he overall level of intterstate migraation loss from
m NSW (Figuree n flows are larggely dominateed 2). TThese in‐ and out‐migration
by m
movements lin
nking NSW witth Queensland
d. NSW DEEPARTMENT OF PLANNING & ENVIRONMENT SSource: Australian
n Bureau of Statisttics (ABS), Australian Demographicc SStatistics 3101.0, vvarious years. TThe Census pro
ovides some indication of th
he level of mo
obility, recording if someone has moved within th
he previous fivve‐year p
period. This is different in naature to annuaal migration eestimates, and
d clearly underrstates the levvel of mobilityy over aan intercensal period. NSW Population
n Projection
n Assumptio
ons – Intersttate Migrattion for NSW
W Figuree 2: Annual intersstate in‐ and out‐‐migration, NSW, 1971/72 to 2010//11
P
Perspectives
s on Future Interstate M
Migration
TThere is no goo
od predictive model of futu
ure levels of neet in
nterstate migrration, given tthat it is highlyy variable. On the assump
O
ption that eco
onomic growth
h will be stronger in the resource‐rich states, and
d incorporatin
ng some possib
ble follow‐on effecct from higherr net overseass migration, neet nterstate migrration is assum
med to shift to
o a more negaative in
lo
ong‐run level during the pro
ojection perio
od. Source: ABS, Australian
n Demographic Sttatistics 3101.0, vvarious years. Dataa for the last siix intercensal periods show that the net interrstate loss from
m NSW duringg 2001‐2006 m
may have been
n a singu
ular extreme. The net loss d
during 2006‐20
011 is more conssistent with “average” intersstate flows seen since the earlyy 1980s. Who
o Moves? Migrration is very aage‐specific. A
A wide range o
of social, econ
nomic, environ
nmental and p
political factorrs both in New
w Soutth Wales and eelsewhere in A
Australia influeence who moves. However ttheir interactio
on in affectingg population nd difficult to p
predict. mobility is under‐rresearched an
ple are more liikely to move at certain agees. In the case of Peop
NSW
W, those leavin
ng the state arre most likely tto be aged in theirr early twentiees, while thosee moving heree from elsew
where in Australia are generally older (Figgure 3). Figuree 3: Age profile off net interstate migration, NSW, 20
006‐2011 Net interstate migration for New South W
N
Wales as a who
ole has thus been set aat ‐20,000 perr year for the duration of th
he p
projection per
iod. In 2012‐1
13, net interstaate migration for N
NSW was estim
mated to be ‐1
15,500. Like neet overseas m
migration, this
s assumption sshould be inteerpreted as a long‐
r
run average ra
ather than a reeliable projecttion for individ
dual y
years. L
Local Governm
ment Areas Migration assu
M
umptions for local government areas are based o
on analysis of f
flows that com
mbine all movvements within
n A
Australia ‐ i.e. both interstatte and intrastaate movements. For m
more details se
ee Internal miigration for loccal governmen
nt a
areas of New S
South Wales. C
Comparison
with ABS P
Projection Assumptionss TThe ABS releassed projection
ns in Novembeer 2013 for Au
ustralia, the states and territories. TThe level of net interstate m
migration loss used by the A
ABS for NSW iss lower than those u
used by Planni
ing and Enviro
onment. Initiallly it is assumeed that N
NSW will have
a net loss of ‐‐18,000 intersstate, then red
ducing to ‐17,000 by 2
2015 and therreafter remain
n constant. The ABS a
assumption is based on an aanalysis of tren
nds over the p
period 2
2007‐2012 and
d constrainingg interstate miigration for alll states a
and territories
s such that theey sum to zero
o. Interstate m
migration losse
es from NSW over that periiod have been
n s
smaller than in
n years prior to that interval (Figure 1). M
More Inform
mation More detail ab
M
bout the assum
mptions and m
methods used in the d
development o
of the final 20
014 NSW popu
ulation, household a
and dwelling p
projections is sset out in otheer technical paapers a
available from
Planning and Environmentt’s website. Source: ABS, 2011 Censsus of Population
n and Housing NSW DEEPARTMENT OF PLANNING & ENVIRONMENT References used
R
d to prepare and
d support the prrojection modells are a
available in the document “Refference Materia
al” ©
© Crown Copy
yright March 2
2014 2