CSIS Southeast Asia
Volume 1, Issue 16/June 7, 2010
Feel the Plates of Change Shifting?
Inviting new talent,
resources and
perspectives is
simply good
management.
Asia is the most
important reservoir
for new ideas and
growth, so its role in
the new structures
being developed
is vital.
Inside This Issue
The Week That Was
Strike 3 on Indonesia Visit
Myanmar Seeking Nukes?
Webb Passes on Burma
Japanese PM Hatoyama
By Ernest Z. Bower
Ever have the sense you are living
through vital chapters of history? You
should. The tectonic plates of power are
shifting beneath our feet. The longpredicted Asian Century is here. That is
good news for the United States as long
as our policymakers recognize the trends,
adapt, and explain the changing
landscape to Americans in ways that only
politicians can, relating global change to
Main Street: ―What does the new
landscape mean for my job, my children,
my safety and security, and what do I
need to do to prosper in these new
conditions?‖
At first glance, it may seem that embracing change will be harder for Americans
than for others. Adapting means the
United States has to give up its role alone at the top. The post–Cold War honeymoon—or
horror show, depending on your perspective—of being the sole world-superpower is rapidly coming to an end. It was a short-lived position that brought with it a heavy burden of
responsibility – to have the world’s largest economy, dominant military, and arguably the
longest soft-power reach.
Scholars and historians will argue over how the United States performed during this
period. What we can say is that a global structure dominated by one country is inherently
unstable. The world finds you when you are on top, as witnessed by the tragic events of
September 11, 2001, in New York. Trying to enforce world stability is expensive, as is the
headiness of market-makers misreading opportunities for unmitigated growth. The United
States is now saddled with a $13 trillion debt equivalent to more than 90 percent of gross
national product.
Change is welcome and timely. If done well, the United States will preserve its leadership
in the global boardroom. Inviting new talent, resources, and perspectives is simply good
management. Asia is the most important reservoir for new ideas and growth, so its role in
the new structures being developed is vital.
Congress to Confirm Aquino
Barack Obama and Tim Geithner get it. The young but worldly duo grew up in countries
like Indonesia and Thailand. They read trends and provided U.S. leadership for
eviscerating the G-8 in favor of the G-20—significantly broadening Asia’s role by adding
China, Indonesia and Korea to Japan’s voice. This move anchors Asia in decision-making
and strengthens the institution and U.S. leadership.
US-Vietnam Political,
Security and Defense
Dialogue
Bob Zoellick gets it. The brainy president of the World Bank supported much-needed
changes in the voting structure, increasing the equity (both financial contributions and
voting power) of fast-emerging major nations such as China, Brazil, and Indonesia.
Resigns
The Week Ahead
CSIS Roundtable with
Special Envoy of the PM of
Thailand
(Continued on next page)
CSIS Southeast Asia
Page 2
Weekly Update June 7, 2010
Feel the Plates of Change Shifting? (continued)
By Ernest Z. Bower
Robert Gates get it. This weekend, U.S. Defense Secretary Gates
spent nearly 36 hours in the Shangri-la Hotel in Singapore with
defense and security delegations from 27 other countries and spoke
honestly and forthrightly about regional security challenges ranging
from North Korea to concerns about reopening dialogue with his
Chinese counterparts. The outcome is consensus supporting a new
Asian regional security architecture called ASEAN + 8. ASEAN + 8
will include the 10 ASEAN countries (Brunei Darussalam,
Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand,
and Vietnam) plus the United States, China, India, Japan, Korea, Australia, Russia, and
New Zealand. ASEAN + 8 defense ministers will meet in Hanoi in October to begin to lay
out key principles for cooperation and coordination.
While key American
leaders see change
coming and are
working to adapt, they
are doing a poor job of
explaining this
dynamic to Americans.
They have not made
the case that
understanding the
global realignment is
vital for America’s
future economic well
being and security.
The CSIS
Southeast Asia
Program is the
premier forum for
a sustained
high-level policy
dialogue focusing
on Southeast Asia
and U.S. interests
in the region.
Ron Kirk gets it. While the U.S. Trade Representative’s arm heals
from a fluke auto accident in his home state of Texas, his deputy
USTR for Asia, Demetrios Marantis, attended the APEC Trade
Ministers Meeting in Sapporo, Japan, this weekend. Ironically, a
meeting with even more impact was the side meeting Marantis
attended with ministers from the seven other members of the
Transpacific Partnership (TPP). The TPP is the only real trade
game that the United States has in Asia at this point, but it is a good
one. It includes a virtual ―coalition of the willing‖ for trade from the
Pacific Rim—Australia, Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore,
the United States, and Vietnam. It seeks to set a foundation for a Free Trade Area of the
Asia Pacific (FTAAP), essentially an APEC-wide free trade agreement based on a
high-quality but creative template structured by the original eight members.
While key American leaders see change coming and are working to adapt, they are doing
a poor job of explaining this dynamic to Americans. They have not made the case that
understanding the global realignment is vital for America’s future economic well-being
and security.
A central reason for this is that the highly talented folks who are White House political
advisers, while certainly smart enough to understand global trends, don’t want to risk a
potentially politically risky story line. They don’t want President Obama in Indonesia when
BP’s oil well continues to spill into the Gulf of Mexico even though they know that
Indonesia is the fourth-largest country in the world, the third-largest democracy, and a
potential anchor partner for the United States in the G-20 and new Asian structures for
security and trade. They believe they can’t risk the ―picture‖ of the president forward
deployed in Asia even after he has visited Louisiana three times and has the technology
to stay on top of developments minute to minute anywhere in the world and an expert
team managing the crisis. They’ve learned the narrow political lessons from President
Bush’s mishandling of the Hurricane Katrina disaster, but have not transformed campaign
-like instincts to protect their candidate into the strategic requirements of running the
country.
It is time to face history and be strategic. Key U.S. policymakers understand the changes
taking place and know what to do. What is needed now is courage from a transformative
leader to explain and relate the new realities of changing global structures to Americans
so they can embrace change and secure their future.
It is time to face history and be strategic. Key US policy makers understand the changes
taking place and know what to do. What is needed now is courage from a transformative
leader to explain and relate the new realities of changing global structures to Americans
so they can embrace change and secure their future.
Page 3
CSIS Southeast Asia
S
trike Three on Indonesia Visit. On June 4, White House Press
Secretary Gibbs announced that the upcoming trip by President Obama to
Indonesia and Australia has been postponed for the third time. The delay is
due to the calamitous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. In March, Obama
postponed his trip to provide the final push for the health care vote in Congress. President
Obama plans to conduct bilateral meetings with Indonesia’s President Yudhoyono and
Australia’s Prime Minister Rudd on the margins of the G-20 meeting in Canada in late
June. For CSIS analysis of the trip and the implications for postponement, visit http://
csis.org/publication/third-strike-obamas-indonesia-visit.
No Show Down Under
No Show Down Under. The impact of the trip postponement on relations with Australia,
one of five U.S. treaty allies in Asia, and relations with Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is likely
not severe. President Obama called ahead to both PM Rudd and Indonesian President
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and both said they understood and supported the decision.
However, Rudd is facing a tough reelection later in the year and a visit by his friend
Barack Obama, who is extremely popular in Australia, may have helped the campaign.
Australia hopes the United States will ratify its Defense Technology Trade Treaty this
year and welcomes alignment with the United States and other partners on Asia regional
architecture in trade and security. See Ernie Bower’s interview with Australian
Ambassador to the United States the Honorable Kim Beazley.
To see Ernie Bower’s interview with Australian Ambassador to
the US The Hon. Kim Beazley please visit http://csis.org/
multimedia/view-oz-australian-ambassador-kim-beazley-talksabout-president-obamas-visit
ASEAN + 8 Consensus Emerges from Shangri La Dialogue
ASEAN + 8 Consensus Emerges from Shangri La Dialogue. The annual Asian
Security Summit, better known as the Shangri La Dialogue, took place this week in
Singapore. More than 300 defense ministers, government officials, analysts, and scholars
from 28 countries gathered for discussions. South Korean president Lee Myung-bak
delivered the keynote address. He emphasized the need for United Nations sanctions on
North Korea as a response to the sinking of the Cheonan. (Read CSIS Korea Chair Victor
Cha’s analysis of the impact of the sinking of the Cheonan here http://csis.org/publication/
aftermath-cheonan). Bilateral ties between the militaries of the United States and China,
the future of the Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA), and humanitarian and
disaster relief programs, as well as the battle against counterinsurgency, were some of
the key issues discussed. The most important development may have been an emerging
consensus for ASEAN + 8 to be the core regional security architecture. Vietnam’s
defense minister Phung Quang Thanh invited the ASEAN + 8 ministers to meet in Hanoi
in October during the annual ASEAN Defense Minister Meeting (ADMM).
Secretary Gates’ Speech. U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates addressed the
Shangri-La Dialogue for the fourth consecutive year. His message to the Asia-Pacific
region was clear: the United States is a Pacific nation and will remain a power in the
Pacific. Gates was forthright in his views, accusing the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) of
impeding Chinese political leaders from seeking closer ties with the Pentagon. ―Only in
the military-to-military arena has progress on critical mutual security issues been held
hostage over something that is, quite frankly, old news,‖ he said. ―It should be clear to
(Continued on next page)
US Military cooperation in
ASEAN
Cooperation Afloat Readiness
and Training (CARAT), known
as Naval Engagement Activity
(NEA) in Indonesia, concluded
on June 2 and moved on to
Malaysia and Cambodia. In
addition, nearly 300 U.S. Navy
personnel will train with the
Singapore Navy in June, and the
U.S.-Pacific Partnership has
arrived in Vietnam. The
Partnership initiative includes
government officials from
Vietnam and the United States,
as well as members from USNS
Mercy meeting at the Port of
Quy Nhon Fleet Landing.
CSIS Southeast Asia
Page 4
Weekly Update June 7, 2010
ASEAN + 8 Consensus Emerges from Shangri La Dialogue
(Continued)
everyone now—more than 30 years after normalization—that interruptions in our military
relationship with China will not change U.S. policy toward Taiwan.‖ He also noted that
President Obama and President Hu Jintao of China have advocated a positive military-tomilitary relationship between their countries. He said, ―Regrettably, we have not been
able to make progress on this relationship in recent months. Chinese officials have
broken off interactions between our militaries, citing U.S. arms sales to Taiwan as the
rationale,‖ referring to earlier reports that Chinese officials had rebuffed his plans to visit
Beijing, stating that the timing is ―inconvenient.‖ The snub came despite an invitation last
year from China's second-ranking officer, General Xu Caihou, for Gates to visit the
country in 2010.
Secretary Gates also shared his views on South China Sea. He said that South China
Sea is an ―area of growing concern‖ and called for multilateral efforts to solve territorial
disputes. Gates is clearly urging China to make its views on the strategically vital South
China Sea known and enter a dialogue with concerned countries.
Read Secretary Gates’ full comments by visiting:
http://www.defense.gov/speeches/speech.aspx?speechid=1483
WEF Report on ASEAN
The World Economic Forum issued a report titled ―Enabling Trade in the Greater ASEAN
Region‖ on June 3. The report ranks125 countries based on their performance in four
main areas: market access, border administration, transport and communications
infrastructure, and general business environment, Singapore kept the top ranking it held in
last year's study, but the rankings of five other members of the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) fell.
Read the full report by visiting:
http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/gcp/GlobalEnablingTradeReport/
ASEANEnablingTradeReport/index.htm
Dates set for APEC
Leaders Meeting in
Hawaii in 2011
On June 3, USTR Ron Kirk
was injured in car
accident, in his place,
Deputy USTR Demetrios
Marantis led the U.S.
delegation to the APEC
meeting. The White House
announced on June 4 that
the 2011 APEC Leaders’
Meeting will take place in
Honolulu on
November 12–13, 2011.
APEC & TPP—Trade Ministers Meet in Sapporo
APEC trade ministers met in Sapporo on June 5–6. The ministers agreed to seek a swift
conclusion to the Doha Round of global trade liberalization talks and to consider ways to
accelerate regional economic integration, including possible pathways to an Asia-Pacific
Free Trade Area. Taiwan's active promotion of the signing of an economic cooperation
framework agreement (ECFA) with China drew APEC members' attention. Taiwan’s trade
minister, Shih Yen-hsiang stressed the urgency of the signing of the cross-strait trade
pact, as once the proposed Northeast Asian free trade zone is formed among China,
Japan, and Korea, Taiwanese companies will not be able to compete with rival
businesses that enjoy preferential tax treatment in the region. Additionally, the APEC
Business Advisory Council (ABAC) delivered a set of five recommendations.
Read the recommendations by visiting:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO1006/S00013.htm.
CSIS Southeast Asia
Page 5
TPP Ministerial Rump Group
Ministers from the eight countries negotiating the Transpacific Partnership (TPP) met on
the sidelines of the APEC meeting and ahead of the second round of TPP negotiations
due to be held later this month in San Francisco, California. The TPP is widely seen as a
precursor to an APEC-wide free trade agreement. Malaysia publicly encouraged Japan to
consider joining the TPP. Malaysia has expressed interest in becoming a party to the
negotiations, and the business community widely supports the inclusion of larger
economies in the negotiations.
Malaysia Joins Cobra Gold
On June 3, U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) announced Malaysia will
become a full participant in the biennial Cobra Gold joint military
exercises starting in 2011. This is another indication that U.S.-Malaysian
military-to-military ties are continuing to grow stronger. This decision
took place during a four-day visit to Washington, D.C., by Defense
Minister Datuk Seri Dr. Ahmad Zahid Hamidi of Malaysia and was
announced after his meeting with Secretary Robert Gates in the Pentagon. Cobra Gold
has been running for three decades and takes place in Thailand. Other countries
participating include Japan, Singapore, and the Philippines, with more than 20 observer
nations.
U.S.-India Strategic Dialogue
June 3 marked the start of the four-day inaugural U.S.-India
Strategic Dialogue in Washington, D.C. During the dialogue, India’s
external affairs minister, S. M. Krishna, assured the United States
that India has consistently believed in the need for dialogue to seek
a future of peace and cooperation with Pakistan. U.S. Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton stressed that the United States was "definitely
committed" to considering New Delhi for permanent membership on an expanded UN
Security Council, and she encouraged its greater role in meeting challenges in the region
such as securing Afghanistan. This dialogue sets the stage for President Obama’s visit to
India this coming November, making him the first U.S. president in more than 30 years to
visit India during his initial term in office. "I look forward to the history that we will make
together, progress that will be treasured not just by this generation but by generations to
come," Obama said during a reception of the U.S.-India Strategic Dialogue.
View the discussion on the U.S.-India Strategic Dialogue with leading officials and
CSIS South Asia Director Ambassador Teresita Schaffer by visiting:
Cambodian Aid and Reform
Cambodian deputy prime minister Keat Chhon announced at a press briefing after the
completion of the third Cambodia Development Cooperation Forum (CDCF) that
international donors have pledged US$1.1 billion in aid to Cambodia this year, a
substantial increase over the US$951.5 million the country received in 2009. During the
forum, donors criticized Cambodia for failing to implement various reforms. Cambodian
prime minister Hun Sen insisted that his government would use the funds effectively,
calling reform a ―life-or-death issue for Cambodia.‖
The CSIS
Southeast Asia
Program is the
premier forum for
a sustained
high-level policy
dialogue focusing
on Southeast Asia
and U.S. interests
in the region.
CSIS Southeast Asia
Page 6
Weekly Update June 7, 2010
Thailand’s Abhisit Defeats No-Confidence Vote and Changes Cabinet
PM Abhisit and his Democrat Party are winning some important near-term
political battles in Bangkok. On June 2, the prime minister survived a
parliamentary no-confidence vote with 246 votes supporting and 186 against.
The opposition had accused the government of corruption, economic
mismanagement, and violating the human rights, while the foreign minister
faced accusations of disloyalty to the monarch. All ministers challenged
defeated the challenge.
Extradition of Thaksin
Cambodia firmly rejected the
extradition of former Thai
prime minister Thaksin
Shinawatra in advance of
Bangkok’s announcement
that it would send an arrest
warrant to 187 countries.
Cambodia also issued a
statement rejecting an
allegation that Thailand’s
Red Shirt protesters used
Cambodia as a base for their
activities, stating “the
Kingdom of Cambodia shall
not invade any country, nor
interfere in any other
country’s internal affairs,
directly or indirectly.”
The CSIS
Southeast Asia
Program is the
premier forum for
a sustained
high-level policy
dialogue focusing
on Southeast Asia
and U.S. interests
in the region.
Three days later, Prime Minister Abhisit announced changes to his cabinet, the fifth round
of changes since the coalition government came to power on December 23, 2008. At the
time this newsletter was being written, eight new cabinet members (six from the Democrat
Party, one from the coalition Puan Pandin Party, and one from the Matubhum Party) are
approved by the Thai king on June 7. It was also reported that some 11 Puea Pandin MPs
have been removed, including party leader Charnchai Chairungruang.
Myanmar Seeking Nukes?
A new report suggests that Myanmar (Burma) is gathering supplies for nuclear weaponsdevelopment. The claims are based on statements of a senior Burmese defector who left
the country with substantial documents and other evidence. Former International Atomic
Energy Agency director Robert Kelley says the evidence suggested that Burma was
seeking to build weapons rather than power plants. While the evidence demands further
examination, policy makers may be wise to examine lessons from North Korea and step
up enforcement of the Proliferation Security Initiative as well as enhance engagement
efforts to ensure there is traction for diverting Myanmar’s policy direction if the report is
accurate.
Read report by visiting:
http://www.dvb.no/burmas-nuclear-ambitions/burmas-nuclear-ambitions-nuclear/
expert-analysis/9297.
Webb Passes on Burma. Reportedly as a result of these developments,
U.S. Senator Jim Webb (Democrat of Virginia) announced from Bangkok
that he canceled his planned June 3 trip to Myanmar (Burma). "I do not
know the validity of this information, but at the same time I think there's
enough in these two allegations of Burmese involvement with North Korea
and potentially with a nuclear program,‖ he said. ―Until there is further
clarification on these matters, I believe it would be unwise and potentially
counterproductive for me to visit Burma.‖
As Wen Follows Through. In contrast to Webb’s decision, Chinese
premier Wen Jiabao followed through on his visit to Myanmar—the first by
a Chinese premier in 16 years – on June 2–3 and signed a series of
bilateral agreements including pacts on energy development, hydroelectric
projects, and aid. Wen reportedly held talks with General Than Shwe and
other senior officials. The two prime ministers also attended celebrations
marking the 60th anniversary of diplomatic ties.
A chronology of China-Burma relations can be found by visiting:
http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=18606
Page 7
CSIS Southeast Asia
China’s Four-Nation Tour
In addition to Myanmar, Premier Wen also visited Mongolia, South Korea, and Japan as
part of a four-nation Asia trip. The outcome of his visit in Japan included agreement to
start formal talks on the joint development of disputed gas fields in the East China Sea
and agreeing to set up a hotline between the two countries to avert any future tensions.
Korean discussion focused on managing heightened tensions with North Korea after the
alleged March 26, 2010, sinking by North Korea of the South Korean corvette Cheonan.
Japanese PM Hatoyama Resigns
A day after Chinese premier Wen Jiabao concluded his state visit,
Japanese prime minister Yukio Hatoyama announced his resignation on
June 3, just eight months after coming to power. He was the fourth
Japanese prime minister in as many years (there have been 14 prime
ministers in the last 21 years in Japan—and 10 in Thailand in that same
period), underlining the political soul-searching going on in Japan.
Hatoyama’s resignation came after succumbing to pressures from within
his party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), for his repeated political fumbles and the
alleged corruption of close adviser and DPJ Secretary General Ichiro Ozawa (who also
resigned). His successor is Finance Minister Naoto Kan. Kan, 63, will become Japan's
fifth prime minister in the last four years. DPJ popularity doubled in the polls after the
announcement that Kan would succeed Hatoyama.
For CSIS analysis of Hatoyama’s resignation and the impact on U.S.-Japan ties,
please visit http://csis.org/publication/political-turmoil-japan
Israel Infuriates Asian Muslims
Israel’s boarding of the Gaza-bound flotilla ship Mavi Marmara and killing of nine activists
as well as subsequent actions to board and divert additional ships has outraged many
Muslims in Asia and evoked harsh responses from the leaders of ASEAN countries with
large Muslim populations, notably Prime Minister Najib Razak of Malaysia and President
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono of Indonesia. Southeast Asian Muslims identify with the
Palestinians’ situation and are expressing growing frustration and exasperation with the
state of affairs in the Middle East. These feelings are also directed at the United States
because it is perceived as enabling Israel’s actions against the Palestinians. CSIS Burke
Chair in Strategy Anthony Cordesman explores the situation in depth in his analysis
―Israel as a Strategic Liability?‖
To read more please visit:
http://csis.org/publication/israel-strategic-liability
The Week Ahead
New President for Philippines
Congress confirmed Senator Benigno
―Noynoy‖ Aquino III as the country's
fifteenth president and Jejomar Binay as
vice president. They will be proclaimed on
June 9, 2pm. President-elect Aquino will be
inaugurated on July 1 in Manila. In the
meantime, he has been vetting candidates
to join his cabinet.
Joint Military Exercise in Bandung
More than 100 soldiers and airmen from
Hawaii will participate June 10–25 in the
exercise Garuda Shield 10 in Bandung,
Indonesia. Personnel from 24 other countries, including Japan, Russia, and China,
have been invited to observe and to participate in the exercise.
CSIS Southeast Asia
Page 8
Weekly Update June 7, 2010
The Week Ahead (Continued)
The U.S.-Vietnam Political, Security, and
Defense Dialogue will be held on June 8–
10 in Hanoi, Vietnam. Assistant Secretary
of State for Political-Military Affairs Andrew
Shapiro and Deputy Assistant Secretary of
Defense for South and Southeast Asia
Robert Scher will be leading the U.S.
delegation. The Dialogue will focus on
enhancing bilateral cooperation in the areas
of peacekeeping operations and training,
humanitarian assistance and disaster relief,
maritime search and rescue, regional
security, and nonproliferation.
Secretary and Ambassador for ASEAN
Affairs, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific
Affairs, U.S. Department of State, will be a
key witness.
The Asia Pacific Council of American
Chambers of Commerce (APCAC) will
conduct their annual ―Doorknock‖ in
Washington, D.C. during the week of June
14. The Doorknock brings senior executives
of American companies in various Asian
countries to Washington, D.C. for dialogue
with the administration, Congress, business
groups, and policy/thought leaders. The
CSIS Roundtable with HE Kiat Sitthiamorn
AmCham Philippines team will meet at
The CSIS Southeast Asia Program will be
CSIS with a Philippine Experts Group on
hosting a private roundtable discussion with June 17 to discuss the outlook and
the Special Envoy of the Prime Minister of
opportunities under the new administration
Thailand HE Kiat Sitthiamorn on Friday,
of incoming president Benigno ―Noynoy‖
June 11, 2010. The event will be moderated Aquino III. Aquino will take office on July 1,
by Dr. Robert S. Wang, Visiting Fellow,
2010.
CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies. InThe Second Negotiating Round of the
terested parties may send an email to
Transpacific Partnership will take place in
[email protected]
San Francisco, California, June 14–18,
2010.
An open hearing by the U.S. House
Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia
on Thailand: The Path toward
Reconciliation will be held on June 10,
2 p.m., at 2172 Rayburn Bldg. The
Honorable Scot Marciel, Deputy Assistant
The CSIS
Southeast Asia
Program is the
premier forum for
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high-level policy
dialogue focusing
on Southeast Asia
and U.S. interests
in the region.
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