2015
NISA Policy Paper
series
Critical Overview of NATO’s Role in Afghanistan
Dr. Dhananjay Tripathi
Assistant Professor, IR Department,
South Asian University, New Delhi
NISA Alum, 2014
8.6.2015
1
Critical Overview of NATO’s Role in Afghanistan
Dr. Dhananjay Tripathi
ABSTRACT: In this paper an attempt is made to analyse NATO’s role in Afghanistan. The paper
also focuses on organizational history of NATO while trying to understand its contemporary
relevance, in context of its involvement in Afghanistan. This paper puts forward numerous policy
recommendations on present and future role of NATO in Afghanistan.
KEYWORDS: NATO, Afghanistan, Taliban, Terrorism, Peace
INTRODUCTION
T
he fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989
who for long had been preparing to inflict
changed
in
terror in order to promote their way of
International Relations. Likewise, the second
understanding as opposed to free and liberal
event that was to have such an impact on
values. In addition, ethnic and civil conflicts
International Relations was the 9/11 terrorist
also engulfed different parts of the world
attacks on the US. Between the two, the fall
making some places safe hideouts for rogue
of the Berlin Wall was certainly a positive
elements to live and prosper. First, such
event that opened prospects for closeness of
problems related to ethnic and civil conflict
international community. Fall of Berlin Wall
started in Europe when trouble erupted in the
is also associated with the end of the Cold War
Balkan region. The Balkan crisis was just a
and with this the world came to be described
preview of what started multiplying in other
as more united than ever before, where the
parts of the world (Moodie 1995).
the
discourse
notion of sovereignty and its relevance was
questioned.
In
addition,
revolution
in
Afghanistan was another such region but it
information technology and expansion of
would be wrong to reach any conclusion
global economy both in merchandise and
without contextually and objectively analysing
service sectors were a few of the most
the reasons for the same. The foremost
recognizable phenomena of the post-Cold
question is, what made Afghanistan a
War world order (Gilpin, 2001). These were
preferred
some of the positive episodes of the post-Cold
terrorist organizations like Al-Qaida that
War international system but along with it
planned and executed the 9/11 terrorists
many new problems also started cropping up.
attacks. Some of these issues will be briefly
The interrelated and better-interconnected
dealt with in this paper. While discussing
world benefited not only the progressive but
Afghanistan, the role of the international
also the rogue elements. These include those
community cannot be dismissed because after
destination
for
international
1
Critical Overview of NATO’s Role in Afghanistan
Dr. Dhananjay Tripathi
9/11 many countries became actively involved
NATO that entered the 66th year of its
in Afghanistan. In this paper we will
existence in April 2015. One of the longest
particularly focus on the role of North Atlantic
surviving collective defence organizations of
Treaty Organization (NATO) that took the
the world, NATO was established in 1949 to
responsibility of establishing peace and order
address security concerns of the western
in Afghanistan. From NATO’s perspective,
European countries. After the end of World
Afghanistan is an important country for
War II (WW-II), the Soviet Union emerged
several reasons. Firstly, after the 9/11 terrorist
as one of the superpowers. Confident with the
attacks, NATO, for the first time in its history
success in WW-II, the Soviet Union started
invoked Article 5 related to collective defence.
pursuing aggressive foreign policy to enhance
Article 5 implies that an attack on a member
its influence and domination particularly in
i
country should be treated as an attack on all .
Europe. Soviet threat was abetted by a number
Secondly, Afghanistan is also a country
of crisis and conflicts in and around Europe,
outside the Euro-Atlantic region where
like 1947 Greece civil war, Berlin blockade of
NATO had started its mission. Mission in
1948, Turkey facing threat from Moscow, etc.
Afghanistan can also be termed as one of the
These volatile situations induced the western
longest and difficult missions for NATO.
European countries to seriously consider the
Lastly, even after the long stay in Afghanistan
creation of a strategic alliance.
it was difficult to conclude that NATO’s
Afghan mission was a success because peace
While assessing the overall situation in
and stability are still a distant dream for the
Europe the US President Harry S. Truman
common people in Afghanistan. All these
urged the Congress to help Greece and
points necessitate a thorough analysis of
Turkey.
NATO’s role in Afghanistan. While making
positively with an aid package of $400 million
this analysis we will evaluate the new role of
to counter the growing influence of the Soviet
NATO in Afghanistan since January 2015. In
Union in these two countries. The relief
the light of our analysis we will also make some
package helped Greece and Turkey but
concrete suggestions.
security considerations remained top priority
for
NATO: History and Theoretical Perspective
the
The
US
western
Congress
European
responded
countries.
Consequently, five countries of Europe
(Britain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands
Former
Woodrow
and Luxembourg) formed Western European
Wilson said, “Interest does not tie nations
Union (WEU) by signing Brussels Treaty in
together; it sometimes separates them. But
March 1948. The primary objective of
sympathy and understanding does unite
Brussels Treaty was to develop a common
ii
American
President
them” . Can this statement be applicable on
2
Critical Overview of NATO’s Role in Afghanistan
Dr. Dhananjay Tripathi
defence system and to strengthen ties that
International Relations, nation-states prefer
would help them to resist ideological, political
alliances for balance of power (Morgenthau,
and military threats to their security. After the
2007). This provides a reason for creation of
creation of WEU, negotiations with the
an alliance and its continuation is also
United States of America (USA) and Canada
explained as necessary for balance of threat.
were followed by the creation of North
“Whereas balance of power theory predicts
Atlantic Alliance based on security guarantee
that states will react to imbalances of power,
and mutual agreements between Europe and
balance of threat theory predicts when there is
North
European
an imbalance of threat states will form an
countries – Denmark, Iceland, Italy, Portugal
alliance to increase their internal efforts in
and Norway were invited by the WEU to
order to reduce their vulnerability” (Walt,
participate in the process. Finally, in April
1987). Realist school of thought in this regard
1949, the Treaty of Washington was signed
has its explanation for establishment and
establishing the NATO with consent of twelve
continuation of NATO.
America.
Five
more
countries. In brief, NATO was a Cold War
formation to ensure security of western
NATO officially has its own justification for its
Europe and to strategically balance the Soviet
continuance, relevance and expansion. This
Union.
can be inferred from new strategic concept of
the NATO that was adopted in November
2010 during the Lisbon
“Historically, NATO was founded to provide
security cover to its member states during the
Cold War. This makes us question the
rationale for its continuation in post-Cold
War period.”
Thomas Young, “end of the Cold War has
resulted in a massive sea change in Europe’s
environment
is
a
“The
concept
is
document
strategic
an
official
that
outlines
NATO’s enduring purpose
and
security
its
fundamental
task”
(NATO,
2014). As per the Strategic
According to an American strategic analyst,
security
summit.
fact.
Notwithstanding the dissolution of the Soviet
and the Warsaw Pact, the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO) appears to be
politically active and institutionally viable”
(Young, 1997). According to realist theory of
Concept of 2010 threat to NATO members
includes
conventional
threat
from
proliferation of ballistic missiles, nuclear
weapons and weapons of mass destruction,
terrorism,
trans-illegal
activities
and
extremism, cyber attacks, threat to vital
communication, transit and trade routes,
technology related trends and environmental
3
Critical Overview of NATO’s Role in Afghanistan
Dr. Dhananjay Tripathi
threats. Estimation and recognition of these
NATO in Afghanistan:
threats entail continuance of NATO even
Resolute Support
after the end of Cold War. There is another
institutional perspective on continuance of
NATO and this is well explained by Celeste
Wallander. According to her, ‘alliance cannot
be only viewed as aggregation of national
power but also as security institution creation
of which is costly but affordable to maintain it.
This is a reason why it remains useful despite
changed circumstance’ (Wallander, 2000).
From ISAF to
Taliban was in control of Afghanistan when
the terrorist attacks were launched on the US.
Although there was resistance to Taliban by
the Northern Alliance it was limited to few
areas. In the rise and success of Taliban, AlQaida had played a vital role as it helped in
eliminating many
important leaders of
Northern Alliance like Ahmad Shah Massoud
(9 September 2001). Due to this camaraderie
Taliban rejected Washington’s demand to
Briefly, there are various perspectives and
hand over Osama Bin Laden – the main
approaches to explain continuation of NATO
conspirator of 9/11 terrorist attacks. Failing to
even after end of the Cold War.
have any rational negotiation with Taliban the
US and its allies opted for a
military operation, which was
also supported by the Northern
From
simple
strategic
viewpoint,
NATO
Alliance of Afghanistan. Faced
provides an enhanced security umbrella to all its
with a superior army, Taliban
members and partners. Therefore, it is difficult to
and Al-Qaida fled from Kabul
imagine that NATO’s relevance will decline with
but these warring groups never
time particularly for Euro-Atlantic countries.
accepted defeat. Taliban and its
associates
From functional and practical aspects also it is
that
prominently
proved that Euro-Atlantic nations depend
included Al-Qaida resorted to their old
largely on NATO for attaining security. This
strategy of guerrilla warfare creating enough
was the case with Afghanistan when after 9/11
trouble for the new political setup in
terrorist attacks NATO members agreed to
Afghanistan. Aware of Taliban’s nefarious
start a decisive battle against international
designs the international community decided
terrorism.
to
This
brought
NATO
to
establish
International
Security
and
Afghanistan, which was the base of Osama Bin
Assistance Force (ISAF) at Bonn conference
Laden. In the next part of this paper we will
of December 2001.
discuss NATO’s intervention and role in
responsible
Afghanistan.
Afghanistan and after the UN mandate in
for
The ISAF was
combat
operation
in
August 2003 NATO assumed leadership of
4
Critical Overview of NATO’s Role in Afghanistan
Dr. Dhananjay Tripathi
the ISAF operations. The ISAF mandate was
command
initially limited to providing security in and
military
around Kabul but NATO had taken charge of
Afghanistan from US-led coalition.
of
the
forces
international
in
eastern
the United Nations extended ISAF’s mandate
to cover whole of Afghanistan. This mandate
was provided by the UN Security Council
Source: ISAF Website [Online: Web]
Resolution (UNSCR) 1510 in 2003. NATO
Accessed
had undertaken a daunting task of providing
http://www.isaf.nato.int/history.html
on
19 January
2011.
URL:
security to entire Afghanistan and had to face
stiff resistance from Taliban. Due to this it
Afghanistan is an important case study; in fact
took almost three years for NATO to expand
a testing ground for NATO forces. In words
its operations to the whole of Afghanistan (see
of former secretary general of NATO Jaap de
Table 1).
Hoop Scheffer, “[W]e cannot afford the price
of failure in Afghanistan. Instability in an
Table 1: Phase Wise Expansion of NATO led
already highly unstable region is a safe haven
ISAF in Afghanistan
for international terrorismiii”. Scheffer said
this in 2009 but his statement is still relevant in
Stage Areas of Operation
2015 when NATO has acquired different role
1. To the North: On 31 December
for itself in Afghanistan. NATO took
2003, the military component of the
responsibility of combat operations in 2003,
Kunduz PRT was placed under
but presently the organization is entrusted with
ISAF command as a pilot project.
the duty of training Afghan security personnel
2. To the West: On 10 February 2005
NATO announced that ISAF would
expand
into
the
West
of
Afghanistan.
and of assisting Afghan security forces in some
of its operations. While there has been a
remarkable change in overall role of NATO
from 2003 to 2015 but ground realities remain
more or less the same in Afghanistan. In
3. To the South: On 31 July 2006
reality, the security situation has only
ISAF assumed command of the
deteriorated
Southern region of Afghanistan
uncertainty still looms large in Afghanistan.
from US- led Coalition forces.
While the nature of problems remains almost
since
2006
and
political
4. Expansion towards East and Total
the same in Afghanistan, international forces
Control: On 5 October 2006 ISAF
as per its earlier commitment ceased their
led by NATO implemented final
direct combat operations in December 2014.
stage of its expansion, by taking
In view of overall situation New Afghan
5
Critical Overview of NATO’s Role in Afghanistan
Dr. Dhananjay Tripathi
government that was elected in 2014 signed
situations and it only aggravates troubles for
Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the
NATO in Afghanistan.
US and also NATO Status of Forces
Agreement (SOFA). These two agreements
A number of occurrences have made people
are relevant considering the future of
change their attitude towards their support for
Afghanistan’s security where threat from
NATO’s Afghan mission. According to 47
Taliban has not receded.
Nation Pew Global Attitudes Survey seven out
of the twelve NATO countries that were
With signing of SOFA, NATO has started
mission Resolute Support to train, advice and
assist Afghan security forces and institutions.
For mission Resolute Support approximately
12,000
personnel
from
NATO
and
supporting nations will stay in Afghanistan.
‘The mission is planned to operate with one
central hub (in Kabul/Bagram) and four
spokes in Mazar-e-Sharif, Herat, Kandahar
included in the survey, supported withdrawal
of troops from Afghanistan (Pew Global
Project Attitudes, 2007, 24). One of the prime
reasons for decline in support was the high
number of causalities suffered by the coalition
military in Afghanistan (see Table 2).
Table 2: Coalition Military Fatalities in
Afghanistan (From 2001-2014)
US
UK
2001
12
0
0
12
2002
49
3
18
70
stage inhibiting us to make any concrete
2003
48
0
10
58
evolution at this juncture. Whatever inference
2004
52
1
7
60
we can draw will be based on the earlier
2005
99
1
31
131
mission of NATO that was to support the
2006
98
39
54
191
ISAF.
distinct
2007
117
42
73
232
conclusions that can be drawn from former
2008
155
51
89
295
2009
317
108
96
521
2010
499
103
109
711
2011
418
46
102
566
and Laghmaniv’. This is a formal plan for
mission Resolute Support and it is in initial
Broadly
there
are
two
mission of NATO in Afghanistan. One, after
initial success NATO faced strong resistance
from a regrouped Taliban after 2006. Due to
Year
Other Total
2012
310
44
48
402
longevity of mission, NATO members and
2013
127
9
25
161
contributing nations had a tough time
2014
55
6
14
75
convincing
Total
2356
453
676
3485
their
own
citizens
about
significance of bringing peace and stability in
Afghanistan. In short, there was no popular
public support in Euro-Atlantic nations for
mission in Afghanistan. These are not positive
Source: http://icasualties.org/OEF/index.aspx
6
Critical Overview of NATO’s Role in Afghanistan
Dr. Dhananjay Tripathi
Second was that the last decade was marked as
Thus, while interest of NATO countries in
a struggle for major economies of world and
Afghanistan is on the decline Taliban and its
supporting a war mission in Afghanistan has its
allies see it as an opportunity to come back to
financial
research,
the seat of power. There is also a change in
estimation cost of war (present and future) for
attitude of West towards Taliban and
the US alone is total $1.6 trillion (Brown
diplomatic channels are opened to engage
University, 2013).
Third is related to some
these warring factions in some type of
recent changes in the international relations.
negotiations. Taliban was allowed to open its
With the rise of ISIS, international attention is
office in Doha, Qatar and they are engaged in
presently on political developments in West
dialogue by the Afghan government (Kamrany
Asia. Strategic analysts all over the world are
2014). As of now future of this process is
costs.
According
to
of the opinion
uncertain and it will
that ISIS is a
largely depend on
bigger threat to
success
international
Afghan government
of
elected
community and
Thus, while interest of NATO countries in
to keep political and
that
are
Afghanistan is on the decline Taliban and its
military control of the
better organized
allies see it as an opportunity to come back to
country. In the light
and more lethal
the seat of power. There is also a change in
of
as compared to
attitude of West towards Taliban and
developments
Taliban and Al-
diplomatic channels are opened to engage
suggestions are worth
Qaida. In these
these warring factions in some type of
considering that are
circumstances
negotiations.
discussed in the last
they
domestic
these
few
part of this paper.
politics over Afghanistan in NATO countries
will remain that of opposition. Mission
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS:
Resolute Support is primarily about training
a) Afghanistan is Still an Important
and advice but it includes taking part in
Country for NATO: While there is a
military operations. It, too, involves financial
geographical shift in discourse of
liability. Therefore as per the risk estimation
international terrorism it is clear that
not much has changed except for the number
Afghanistan cannot be ignored. The
of NATO troops that remained stationed in
recent spurt in violence both in
Afghanistan.
Afghanistan and Pakistan is a matter of
concern.
The Af-Pak region even
today is one of the most volatile
7
Critical Overview of NATO’s Role in Afghanistan
Dr. Dhananjay Tripathi
regions of the world and home to
earn the confidence of the Afghans
several
organizations
before it can come to power. Return of
including the Taliban and Al-Qaida.
Taliban in its earlier avatar will have
These elements are motivated and
disastrous consequences.
terrorist
mobilised
to
inflict
terror
on
c)
Mission Resolute Support Should
international community at the first
Achieve its Objective: Foreign troops
available opportunity. They are brutal
can never provide permanent security
as witnessed during the attack on
to a nation. Moreover, no sovereign
schoolchildren in Peshawar, Pakistan
nation wants to remain eternally
in December 2014 and will not
dependent on foreign forces for its
hesitate to target innocent people.
internal and external security. While
Thus, the threat continues as before
considering the above it is worth
and the international community will
mentioning that it is a matter of fact
have to be vigilant. For NATO, failure
that long-term conflict in Afghanistan
in Afghanistan will raise doubts on its
has ruined institutions of law and
ability to successfully complete a
order, police and army. International
mission. In case Afghanistan falls back
community
into the hands of Taliban it will only
Afghanistan not only in reconstructing
make things worse both for the
the infrastructure but should also help
Afghans
in building social capital. This includes
and
for
international
community.
have
to
help
training, advice and mentoring of
b) Negotiate With Taliban that Respect
Human Rights: Negotiation
will
with
police and security personnel of
Afghanistan
so
that
they
can
Taliban and other warring factions is a
independently tackle all eventualities.
positive step. Permanent peace cannot
In brief, mission Resolute Support
be achieved only by confrontational
should ideally achieve its objective.
methods and for sustainable peace
d) Recognizing Role of Regional Actors:
reconciliation is important in conflict-
Afghanistan is at the crossroads of
ridden countries. Afghanistan is no
three different regions: South Asia,
exception but negotiation with Taliban
Central Asia and West Asia. This
can only bring desired result if they
geographical location puts Afghanistan
accede to respect human rights of
in midst of power politics between
others and are willing to lay down their
regional actors of all three regions. In
guns. Taliban should participate in the
this Iran, Pakistan, Russia, India, and
democratic process and will have to
China are major regional powers
8
Critical Overview of NATO’s Role in Afghanistan
having
pertinent
interest
Dr. Dhananjay Tripathi
in
http://watson.brown.edu/news/2013/costs-12-
Afghanistan. These regional actors
years-afghanistan (Accessed on 26 January
have an interest in the political stability
2015)
of Afghanistan and at the same time
they also have their own agendas
particularly Pakistan. It is a notable
fact that Islamabad has sway over
some
sections
of
Taliban
Gilpin, Robert (2001), Global Political
Economy Understanding the International
Economic
Order,
Princeton:
Princeton
University Press.
and
therefore cannot be ignored. In these
Morgenthau, Hans. J (2007) (6th Indian
circumstances
dynamics
edition), Politics Among Nations The Struggle
cannot be overlooked and this is
for Power and Peace, New Delhi: Kalyani
equally applicable for the NATO and
Publisher.
it requires a sensitive and sensible
Kamrany, Nake. M (2014), “How to End
approach.
Afghanistan War: Negotiate with Taliban”,
regional
The
Huffington
Post,
URL:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-
CONCLUSION
kamrany/how-to-end-afghanistanIn this paper we have focused on NATO’s
role in Afghanistan underlining the relevance
wa_b_5469838.html?ir=India (accessed on 25
January 2015).
of peaceful Afghanistan. While making our
arguments we accepted that international
Moodie, Michael (1995). “The Balkan
reality has changed between 2001 and 2015
Tragedy”, Annals of the American Academy
and in between NATO has taken other
of Political Science, 541: 101-115.
responsibilities. Still NATO cannot afford an
NATO (2014), Strategic Concept, URL:
unstable and volatile Afghanistan controlled
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_566
by defying Taliban and supported by Al-
26.htm?selectedLocale=en (Accessed on 25
Qaida. This paper, which offered some
January 2015).
suggestions and provided comprehensive
research on this topic, also gives concrete
answers pertaining to NATO’s future role in
Pew Global Project Attitudes (2007), 47Nation Pew Global Attitude Survey, URL:
http://pewglobal.org/files/pdf/256.pdf
Afghanistan.
(accessed on 26 January 2015).
Young, Thomas. D (1997), Command in
REFERENCES:
Brown University (2013), The Costs of 12
Years
in
Afghanistan,
URL:
NATO after the Cold War: Alliance, National
and
Multinational
Consideration,
Pennsylvania: US Army College
Critical Overview of NATO’s Role in Afghanistan
9
Dr. Dhananjay Tripathi
Wallander, Celeste. A (2000), “Institutional
Walt, Stephen. M (1987), The Origins of
Asset and Adaptability: NATO After the Cold
Alliances, New York:
War, International Organization, 54 (4): 705-
Press
Cornell University
735.
ENDNOTES
i
ii
For details see : http://www.nato.int/terrorism/five.htm
President Woodrow Wilson on the United States and Latin America, address before the Southern
Commercial Congress at mobile, Alabama, October 27, 1913 [Online: web] Accessed on 1 February 2011,
URL: http://www.archive.org/stream/presidentwilsono00wilsrich/presidentwilsono00wilsrich_djvu.txt
iii
for full speech see: http://www.nato.int/cps/bu/natohq/opinions_51362.htm
iv
see NATO website: http://www.nato.int/cps/bu/natohq/topics_113694.htm?
1
Critical Overview of NATO’s Role in Afghanistan
Dr. Dhananjay Tripathi
About NISA
NATO International School of Azerbaijan (NISA) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan information, training
and research institution founded in 2003 in Baku, Azerbaijan.
NISA was established to provide a sound platform for academic discourse and raise awareness
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NISA also commits itself to research and thus encourages young researchers locally and
internationally to involve in research and publication through NISA channels.
Author
Dr. Dhananjay Tripathi is an Assistant Professor at the International Relations Department of South
Asian University. He is also an Associate Research Fellow at United Service Institution of India. Dr.
Tripathi is an Alum of NISA Summer Session of 2014 on “International Economic Security”.
The opinions and conclusion expressed herein are those of the individual author(s) and do not
necessarily reflect the views of NATO International School of Azerbaijan.