Flood Forecasting and Warning System
for Cagayan De Oro and Iligan Cities
Project Climate Twin Phoenix
Tropical storm Sendong, which washed out parts
of Cagayan De Oro and Iligan cities in 2011,
demonstrated how extreme climate events
could worsen the impact of flooding on people,
property and communities. During Sendong,
over a thousand lives were lost, 131,618 families
were displaced from their homes, and close to
P2 billion of infrastructure, crops and schools
were damaged by the floodwaters (NDRRMC).
Project Climate Twin Phoenix, a project
implemented by the Climate Change Commission,
and with support and technical assistance from
the United Nations Development Programme
and the Australian government, supports the
long-term recovery of the flood-affected areas
by improving the governance system within a
community. It provides knowledge-based inputs
to local governments that will guide its planning
and decision making and in advancing policies
that will support strategies and actions toward
sustainable development in the area.
Central to this approach is the integration of
flood risks into local planning by ascertaining the
likelihood of flooding and its potential negative
consequences. For this purpose, Project Climate
Twin Phoenix has generated climate-adjusted
flood hazard maps for different rainfall scenarios
which will show the extent of the flooded area, the
depth of flood waters, and the period of flooding
and can give an established calculated lead time
for early warning for different rainfall scenarios.
Data used for the climate-adjusted flood hazard
maps were derived by the project from modeling
the four major river basins of Mandulog, Iponan,
Cagayan De Oro, and Iligan.
As a tool, the climate-adjusted flood hazard maps
are useful for decision makers in the preparation
of their flood contingency plans and for the
installation of early warning systems in strategic
places, among others.
Project Climate Twin Phoenix has assisted Iligan
and Cagayan de Oro in the preparation of their
flood contingency plans using the climateadjusted flood hazard maps as basis for estimates
for possible prepositioning of goods and services
needed for response and early recovery should
a flood disaster happen in the future. Iligan
approved its contingency plan on March 2014
while Cagayan de Oro is already in the process of
getting the approval of the cluster heads prior to
the endorsement of the flood contingency plan to
its Sanggunian.
The information derived from the formulation of
the climate-adjusted flood hazard maps, such
as the river profile or depth and velocity of flood
waters, is also used in the river management
and integrated early warning system program
of PAGASA. Project Climate Twin Phoenix
provided assistance to PAGASA in procuring
and installing the flood forecasting and warning
system.
Flood Forecasting and Warning System
Flood Forecasting and Warning System (FFWS)
is regarded as a critical tool for saving lives,
livelihoods, and property. It provides sufficient lead
time for communities to respond. In partnership
with PAGASA and the local government units
of Cagayan De Oro and Iligan, Project Climate
Twin Phoenix seeks to incorporate early warning
systems as an integral component of its disaster
risk reduction and management strategy. As such,
it will establish a telemetered flood forecasting and
warning system in the river basins of Cagayan de
Oro and Mandulog using data from rainfall and
the rivers’ water level.
PROJECT CLIMATE TWIN PHOENIX |
01
river-basin-wide monitoring network is expected to improve the governments’ and communiThe and
river-basin-wide
monitoring
network
The ahead
FFWS supports
hydromet
stations
monitoring
response capabilities
to be
able to plan
on how existing
to manage
a flood,
to
is
expected
to
improve
the
governments’
installed
by
PAGASA
in
both
rivers.
It
sends
realaccurate warning to the people, and, ultimately, save lives and protect property.
and communities’ monitoring and response
time hydrological data via radio communication
to be able
to plan stations
ahead oninstalled
how
to local
government
authorities.
are
FFWS capabilities
supports existing
hydromet
by
PAGASA
in both
rivers. It These
sendsdata
realto
manage
a
flood,
to
give
accurate
warning
then
fed
into
the
SMS-based
disaster
warning
hydrological data via radio communication to local government authorities. These data are
to the
the people,
and, ultimately,
to save lives
and thatsystem
that
usedflood
to send
flood information
fed into
SMS-based
disaster warning
system
is used
toissend
information
alerts
protect
property.
alerts
to
the
public.
e public.
Fig. 1 Flood Early Warning System of Cagayan De Oro and Mandulog River Basins
1 Flood Early Warning System of Cagayan De Oro and Mandulog
River Basins
vulnerability
assessments, hazard mappings,
Key elements of an FFWS:
and climate projections and trends.
1. Risk knowledge
2. Monitoring & Warning
elements
of an FFWS:
To promote informed decision making, a Climate
3. Information dissemination
sk knowledge
and Disaster Exposure Database (ClimEx.db)
and communication – Flood Warnings
onitoring &
Warning
has been designed by Project Climate Twin
and
bulletin
ormation
dissemination
and
communication
–
Flood
Warnings
and
bulletin
Phoenix as
a tool
that will help communities
4. Response capability – Flood Drills
esponse capability – Flood Drills
and local governments in planning their land
use and development while incorporating
Knowledge
measures to adapt to the effects of climate
Risk Knowledge
ding can
be
managed
when
communities
are
knowledgeable
their flood
risks and
the
change in about
their localities.
ClimEx.db
provides
Flooding can be managed when communirnment’s
preparedness
and
mitigation
strategies
are in
place.
This knowledge
geo-referenced
data
on population,
buildings,
ties emergency
are knowledgeable
about their
flood
risks
infrastructure
andand
economic
activities
in the
be based
on government’s
evidences, which
are systematically
from risk
vulnerability
assessand the
emergency
prepared- drawn
cities
that
are
considered
high-risk
for
floodness
and
mitigation
strategies
are
in
place.
s, hazard mappings, and climate projections and trends.
ing or which are predisposed to the impacts of
This knowledge must be based on evidences,
omotewhich
informed
decision making,
a Climate
Exposure
extreme
weatherDatabase
events. (ClimEx.db) has
are systematically
drawn
from riskand
andDisaster
designed
by CLIMATE
Project
Climate Twin Phoenix as a tool that will help communities and local
TWIN PHOENIX
02 | PROJECT
rnments in planning their land use and development while incorporating measures to adapt to
ffects of climate change in their localities. ClimEx.db provides geo-referenced data on popula-
Monitoring and Warning
stations
within
watershedwater
or river
basin.
Warning
The Monitoring
monitoring and
network
consists of automatic rain
gauges
andtheautomatic
level
measurin
The
rainfall
readings
and
water
level
heights
The
monitoring
network
consists
of
automatic
stations within the watershed or river basin. The rainfall readings and water level heights are auto
are automatically
measuredmeasured
and transmitted
rain gauges and automatic water level measuring
matically
and transmi
via a digital two-way radio relay
ted via a digital two-way radio rela
network first to the River Basin
network
first to the River Basin Floo
Flood Forecasting and Warning
Forecasting
and then,
Warning
Center (RBFFWC);
to the Cente
(RBFFWC);
then,
to theand
PAGAS
PAGASA Flood
Forecasting
Flood
andCity)Warnin
WarningForecasting
Center (Quezon
Center
(Quezon
City)
and PAGAS
and PAGASA Regional Service
RDivisions
e g i o n a(PAGASA-RSD);
l S e r v i c e down
Division
to the concerned government
(PAGASA_RSD);
down to th
agencies
(National
and
Regional
concerned government
agencie
offices
of
DPWH
and
OCD)
(National and Regional offices o
and LGUsand
(Provincial
City LGU
DPWH
OCD)andand
DRRMCs). All
observed
are
(Provincial
and
City data
DRRMCs).
A
stored into a database where
observed data are stored into a data
it can be analyzed, remotely
base
where it can be analyzed
viewed, and used as inputs for
remotely
viewed, models.
and usedThe
as input
flood forecasting
for
flood
forecasting
models.
Th
flood forecast derived from the
flood
from th
modelsforecast
becomes derived
the basis for
Flood Bulletin
for Cagayan
de Oro RiverdeBasin
Fig.Fig.
2 2 Flood
Bulletin
for Cagayan
Oro River Basin
models
becomes information
the basis fo
providing advanced
providing
advanced
when there are
threats of informatio
river
flooding
during
periods
of flood
when there are threats of river
excessive
in of
theexcessive
form of rain
ing
during rainfall
periods
flood
bulletins/advisories
fall in the form of floodand
bulletins
warnings.
advisories and warnings.
REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES
Department of Science and Technology
PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC, GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION (PAGASA)
_____ River Flood Forecasting and Warning Center, Hydro-Meteorology Division/_____PRSD
(Address, Telephone and Fax Nos., Website)
EXPECTED FLOOD:
P - Possible
SITUATION:
O - Occur
T - Threatening
F - PeRSiST
FLOOD BULLETIN NO. ______
CAGAYAN DE ORO RIVER BASIN
ISSUED AT: ______ AM/PM ___________ 20 ______
VALID UNTIL THE NEXT ISSUANCE AT ________ AM/PM TODAY/TOMORROW
UNLESS THERE IS AN INTERMEDIATE BULLETIN
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AS OF_____AM/PM TODAY:
PAST ________-HR/-DAY RAINFALL = ______ MM
FORECAST 24-HR RAINFALL = __________ TO _________ MM
BASIN EXPECTED RESPONSE:
WATER LEVEL
STATION (STN)
RIVER / LAKE / SWAMP
WATER LEVEL (WL)
TREND AT STATION
FLOOD SITUATION
MESSAGE
_____ RIVER ( R ):
. ____________
NOW AT _____ M. /
(SLOW / GRADUAL /
RAPID) RISE TO REACH
ABOVE ____M. (ALERT/
ALARM/CRITICAL) WL
TRIBUTARY RIVER (
R ): __________
________R.
_____________
NOW AT _____ M. /
FLOODING IS EXPECTED
STILL (SLOW / GRADUAL TO PERSIST UNTIL
/ RAPID) RISE / RECES- __________.
SION / FLUCTUATING /
LEVELING OFF ABOVE
____ M. CRITICAL WL
ALLIED RIVER ( R ):
____________ R.
_____________
NOW AT _____ M.
/ (SLOW / GRADUAL/
RAPID) RECESSION TO
REACH BELOW ____M.
(ALERT/ALARM/CRTICAL) WL
PARTICULAR
LOW-LYING AREAS
FLOODING IS (POSSIBLE/ THREATENING
/ EXPECTED TO
OCCUR) STARTING
_____________.
FLOODING IS NO
LONGER (POSSIBLE / THREATENING /
EXPECTED TO OCCUR
/ PERSIST) (A FINAL
MESSAGE)
RIVER / DRAINAGE FLOODING IN THE LOW-LYING URBANIZED AREAS
COASTAL FLOODING IN THE LOW-LYING (SEA-SHORE/LAKE-SHORE) AREAS
THE RESIDENTS AND THE LOCAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND MANAGEMENT COUNCILS
CONCERNED ARE ADVISED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.
Note: The final bulletin doesn’t have validity period and past cumulative rainfall
Division Chief / Center Chief / Center Fcstr.
REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES
Department of Science and Technology
PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC, GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION (PAGASA)
_____ River Flood Forecasting and Warning Center, Hydro-Meteorology Division/_____PRSD
(Address, Telephone and Fax Nos., Website)
EXPECTED FLOOD:
P - Possible
SITUATION:
O - Occur
T - Threatening
F - PeRSiST
FLOOD BULLETIN NO. ______
MANDULOG RIVER BASIN
ISSUED AT: ______ AM/PM ___________ 20 ______
VALID UNTIL THE NEXT ISSUANCE AT ________ AM/PM TODAY/TOMORROW
UNLESS THERE IS AN INTERMEDIATE BULLETIN
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AS OF_____AM/PM TODAY:
PAST ________-HR/-DAY RAINFALL = ______ MM
FORECAST 24-HR RAINFALL = __________ TO _________ MM
BASIN EXPECTED RESPONSE:
WATER LEVEL
STATION (STN)
RIVER / LAKE / SWAMP
WATER LEVEL (WL)
TREND AT STATION
FLOOD SITUATION
MESSAGE
Flood Warnings
Warnings and Bulletin
Flood
PARTICULAR
LOW-LYING AREAS
andefficient
Bulletin flood warning servic
An
An efficient
flood warning
requires
information,
knowledg
service requires information,
sharing, and effective communica
knowledge
sharing,
and
tion.
When
an event is When
imminent o
effective
communication.
already
an accurat
an event isoccurring,
imminent or already
bulletin
prepares
the bulletin
people wh
occurring,
an accurate
receive
it
for
the
responses
prepares the people who receiverequire
ofit them
a certain required
time. of
for theatresponses
FLOODING IS (POSSIBLE/ THREATENING
/ EXPECTED TO
OCCUR) STARTING
_____________.
_____ RIVER ( R ):
. ____________
NOW AT _____ M. /
(SLOW / GRADUAL /
RAPID) RISE TO REACH
ABOVE ____M. (ALERT/
ALARM/CRITICAL) WL
TRIBUTARY RIVER (
R ): __________
________R.
_____________
NOW AT _____ M. /
FLOODING IS EXPECTED
STILL (SLOW / GRADUAL TO PERSIST UNTIL
/ RAPID) RISE / RECES- __________.
SION / FLUCTUATING /
LEVELING OFF ABOVE
____ M. CRITICAL WL
ALLIED RIVER ( R ):
____________ R.
_____________
NOW AT _____ M.
/ (SLOW / GRADUAL/
RAPID) RECESSION TO
REACH BELOW ____M.
(ALERT/ALARM/CRTICAL) WL
FLOODING IS NO
LONGER (POSSIBLE / THREATENING /
EXPECTED TO OCCUR
/ PERSIST) (A FINAL
MESSAGE)
RIVER / DRAINAGE FLOODING IN THE LOW-LYING URBANIZED AREAS
COASTAL FLOODING IN THE LOW-LYING (SEA-SHORE/LAKE-SHORE) AREAS
THE RESIDENTS AND THE LOCAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND MANAGEMENT COUNCILS
CONCERNED ARE ADVISED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.
Note: The final bulletin doesn’t have validity period and past cumulative rainfall
Division Chief / Center Chief / Center Fcstr.
them at a certain time.
Fig. 3 Flood Bulletin for Mandulog River Basin
Fig. 3
Flood Bulletin for Mandulog River Basin
Flood Warning Water Level
Alert Level
(L4)
The water level at the gauging station when the channel reach/lake/swamp where
the station is representing, is estimated to be 40% Full on the average.
Alarm Level (L6)
The water level at the gauging station when the channel reach/lake/swamp where
the station is representing, is estimated to be 60% Full on the average.
Critical Level (L10)
The water level at the gauging station when a certain section of the channel reach/
lake/swamp where the station is representing, is estimated to be 100% Full.
Fig. 4 Flood Warning Water Level
PROJECT CLIMATE TWIN PHOENIX |
03
Pre-Water Level Assesment for Cagayan de Oro and Mandulog River Basins
Fig. 5 Pre-water level assessment for Cagayan de Oro River Basin
Fig. 6 Pre-water level assessment for Mandulog River Basin
Response Capability:
Flood Evacuation Drills
transferring affected people, and securing the
affected population in designated evacuation
centers.
In order to test and evaluate the flood early warning
system and the comFLOOD WARNING AND EVACUATION DRILL
munications
protoFOR Cagayan de Oro River Basin – Cagayan de Oro City
December 9, 2014
cols and evacuation Scenario : Typhoon Pablo
Brgy. Macasandig
procedures contained
RIVER / LAKE / SWAMP WATER
FLOOD SITUATION
PREPARATORY
LEVEL (WL) TREND AT STATION
MESSAGE
PHASE
in the flood contingency
plan of an LGU, a flood
evacuation drill will be
conducted. The drill
will be participated
in by key members
involved in disaster
FLOOD WARNING STAGE
risk reduction and
management
and
communities
considered high risk for
flooding.
1. PAGASA FFW Center
issue an weather
Bulletin in CDRRMO
- Iligan
CDRRMO-CDO relay to BDRRMO’s
Fax No. FFW Center (El Salvador)
Activation Status of DRRMC
-is ACTIVATED
Fax No.CDORRMC
2. FFWS Issue a Flood
Advisory issued to
CDRRMO - Iligan
Flood Advisory from PAGASA relay to
concerned BDRRMC’s … through
Hand-held radio, sms
Fax No. FFW Center (El Salvador)
Required Actions:
•
MONITORING STATUS
for BDRRMO’s
•
ACTIVITIES along /in
the river are Suspended
Fax No. CDORRMO
(Significant amount
of rainfall observed
in Cosina, Tikalaan
and Imbatug and
Kalilangan Stations)
During the drill, different scenarios will be
simulated and concerned
authorities
will
be
expected
to implement their
contingency plan in
terms of establishing
a communication and
prevention
system,
monitoring water level,
issuing
warnings,
YELLOW LEVEL is activated:
inform BDRRMO’s thru handheld
radio, and/or SMS
Water level at
Tumalaong, Tal–uban,
Mambuaya, the
ALERT level
Required Actions:
•
Residents are on “READY”
status.
•
Make people aware of the
situation by SMS and
announcement to local media
•
Heightened awareness.
•
Barangays conduct “recorrida.”
•
PNP and BFP assist in conduct of
“recorrida.”
Fax No. CDORRMO
ORANGE LEVEL is activated
BDRRMO’s thru handheld radio,
and/or SMS
Fax No. CDORRMO
ALARM:
FFWS Issue a
Flood Bulletin No.2
issued to CDORRMO
Water level at
Tumalaong, Tal –uban,
Mambuaya and
TAGUANAO reached the
ALERT Level
| PROJECT CLIMATE TWIN PHOENIX
Actions required:
Residents to be on “GET-SET”
status.
•
Vulnerable Sector to be preemptively evacuated.
•
“Recorrida” continues.
•
CRITICAL:
FFWS Issue a Flood
Bulletin No.3 issued to
CDRRMO - Iligan
RED LEVEL is activated:
BDRRMO’s thru handheld radio,
and/or SMS
Water level at Tumalaong,
Tal–uban, Mambuaya
and Taguanao Stations
reached the CRITICAL
Level
Actions required
• Residents are on “GO” status.
• Implement Forced Evacuation.
• DRRMO turn on the WARNING
alarm
FFWS Issue a FINAL
FLOOD BULLETIN issued
to CDORRMO
(Terminationofflood
Warning )
TERMINATION of Flood Warning
relay to BSRRMO’s for the return of
the evacuees
Water level in all stations
are at below the Alert level
Fig. 8 Flood Warning and Evacuation Drill
for Mandulog River
FLOOD WARNING AND EVACUATION DRILL
FOR Mandulog River Basin – Cagayan de Oro City
December 9, 2014
Scenario : Typhoon Pablo
Brgy. Santiago
PREPARATORY
PHASE
Fax No. CDORRMO
_______________
1.
RIVER / LAKE / SWAMP WATER
LEVEL (WL) TREND AT STATION
FLOOD SITUATION
MESSAGE
1. PAGASA FFW Center
issue an weather
Bulletin in CDRRMO
- Iligan
ICDRRMC ADVISORY NO. 1
(Alert and Monitoring Status)
Fax No. FFW Center (El Salvador)
2. FFWS Issue a Flood
Advisory issued to
CDRRMO - Iligan
Flood Advisory from PAGASA relay to
concerned BDRRMC’s … through
Hand-held radio, sms
Fax No. FFW Center (El Salvador)
(Significant amount
of rainfall observed in
Rogongon, Kapal and
Hindang RR Stations)
Fax No. IDRRMO
Fax No. IDRRMO
FLOOD WARNING STAGE
ALERT:
FFWS Issue a Flood
Bulletin No.1 issued to
CDRRMO - Iligan
ISSUE:
ICDRRMC ADVISORY NO. 2
(Preparedness Status)
through____
Water level at Mandulog,
Upper Digkilaan, Lower
Digkilaan reached the
ALERT level
FB. No. 1 included in
ICDRRMC ADVISORY NO. 2
ALARM:
FFWS Issue a
Flood Bulletin No.2
issued to CDORRMO
ISSUE:
ICDRRMC ADVISORY NO. 5
(Evecuation Status) through____
Water level at Mandulog,
Upper Digkilaan, Lower
Digkilaan reached the
ALARM level
Note:
Theisfinal
bulletin doesn’t have validity period and past cumulative rainfall
or Flood
receding
Copyright 2014
Project Climate Twin Phoenix
04
Fax No. FFW Center (El Salvador)
ALERT:
FFWS Issue a Flood
Bulletin No.1 issued to
CDRRMO - Iligan
Fig. 7 Flood Warning and Evacuation Drill
for Cagayan de Oro River Basin
CRITICAL:
FFWS Issue a Flood
Bulletin No.3 issued to
CDRRMO - Iligan
Water level at Mandulog,
Upper Digkilaan, Lower
Digkilaan reached the
CRITICAL Level
FFWS Issue a FINAL
FLOOD BULLETIN issued
to CDORRMO
(Terminationofflood
Warning )
Water level in all stations
are at below the Alert level
or Flood is receding
Fax No. FFW Center (El Salvador)
Fax No. IDRRMO
FB. No. 2 included in
ICDRRMC ADVISORY NO. 5
ISSUE:
ICDRRMC Relay to BDRRMO
the FB NO. 3
Fax No. IDRRMO
FORCED EVACUATION
ISSUE:
ICDRRMC ADVISORY NO. 8
(Return of the Evacuees to their
Residences) through____
Fax No. CDORRMO
_______________
1.