Metal Expert Square Billet in Focus August 2015 Billet imports to replace foreign scrap in Turkey Al Jazeera Steel: “No point in own steel making” Iron ore surplus not to rise in 2015 Contents event featured Billet imports to replace foreign scrap in Turkey MENA Billet Import Conference: In right place at right time 6 Transformations in the global iron ore and steel scrap segments have shifted priorities from own production of billet to purchases from the free market Crude steel production at Turkish EAF-mills significantly decreased since the beginning of 2015, while long steel production remained steadily high due to increased billet imports facts & figures22 market outlook interview Al Jazeera Steel: KWTSteel: No point in own steelmaking8 MENA rolling mills have no choice rather than to import semis GCC members have been raising square billet imports in the recent years GCC is among the world’s fastest developing regions. Owing to a wide variety of the projects underway, finished steel demand has rallied there Galloo: Challenge of today to find tonnage with right margins The BIR World Recycling Convention & Exhibition, held in the UAE on May 17‑20, covered numerous issues relevant for the scrap recycling industry Metal Expert 19 11 Chinese billet invades Turkey23 14 Prices for CIS billet in Turkey have decreased to $335-340/t CFR in the third week of July, by $30/t down from the second half of June global trends Iron ore surplus not to rise in 2015 26 Despite expectations, iron ore surplus will not increase too much this year news Turkish mills delay import billet bookings amid uncertainty in longs segment 28 CIS square billet export market in balance 29 Demand for Chinese square billet declines in SE Asia, buyers insist on discounts 30 Vietnam keeps ramping up imports of Chinese billet on lower competitiveness of own production 30 Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 2 editorial Square billet is coming back Metal Expert has great pleasure to present its first special review with a focus on square billet. But why is it billet we want to devote our special attention to in this publication? A collapse of iron ore and oil prices observed last year set an end to the longlasting supercycle in raw materials formerly caused by the unprecedented, in rate and scale, transformation of China into the top industrial economy. The global financial crisis of 2008 just slowed down the wave of the price growth, with commodity prices yet staying at their historical highs. It was actually China again that reversed the trend in 2014, when the growth of domestic steel use in China, the world’s largest consumer of raw materials, started not only to decelerate but gave way to a decline for the first time over many years. This resulted in more than a threefold over just 18 months decrease of iron ore prices from a great high of $144/t CFR China observed in 2013 (for 62% Fe fines). absorbing great tonnages of raw materials and constantly raising steel and pig iron production. Steel companies all over the world, facing oversupply and weak margins, had not enough power to influence raw materials suppliers even by cutting production and balancing out their regional markets, as prices for raw materials wereactually formed in China. The end of the boom in raw materials prices has not only stiffened competition, but eventually transformed the whole steel industry, which, in particularly, brought square billet back into a high-margin product category. The CIS producers, mostly oriented on square billet export, were quite successful amid growing iron ore prices, as most of them are vertically integrated companies with own raw material supply. However, they earned on raw material assets, not downstream business. CIS mills benefited from strong iron ore as square billet pricing was based on steel scrap quotation, and scrap sellers, in their turn, were raising prices referring to upward iron ore trend. It is hard to overestimate the impact of the commodity supercycle on the global metallurgy. Steel production cost skyrocketed globally, as China was Metal Expert The disproportion in commodity prices gave major steel producers, such as ArcelorMittal, Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metals Corporation, POSCO and others, a hard time. It, however, also harassed small companies, particularly the Middle East-based mini-mills, despite their focus on the strong local construction sector in the era of strong oil prices. Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 3 editorial What was good for some turned pain in the neck for others. Independent scrap-fed mini-mills have been facing falling profits over the last 3-4 years due to rising scrap prices. The weighted average margin of Turkish mini-mills, major exporters of long steel products to the Middle East, significantly dropped. It fell from $32/t in 2013 to $23/t in 2014 and a mere $14/t in H1 2015, according to Metal Expert assessment. Producers without steel melting facilities were even deeper in trouble. They were forced to either halt operations or urgently install electric-arc furnaces. This considerably depressed square billet trade globally. According to ISSB, square billet Metal Expert imports in the countries of the Middle East were falling over the last 3 years: from 12.7 million t in 2012 to 9.8 million t in 2013 and 9.1 million t in 2014. Iron ore collapse eased cost pressure on steelworks worldwide, which have been reporting higher profits, or at least lower losses, since the second half of 2014. Yet, positions of mini-mills remained depressed, as scrap suppliers from Europe and the USA, who lately heavily invested in their recycling operations, made their best to prevent scrap prices from falling. As a result, scrap price decreased much less comparing with iron ore. Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 4 editorial This badly affected performance of minimills, who started to suffer losses. At the same time, the CIS billet suppliers benefited again from high scrap prices, as the billet pricing was still based on scrap quotation. Moreover, losses from their raw materials business were fully compensated by super profits – sometimes more than $100/t – from weakening currencies against the US dollar. However, this situation – high profits amid excess rolling and steelmaking capacity – was too ideal to last long. China did not miss the opportunity of falling iron ore prices and increased exports of steel products, billet in particular, to the global market, setting ridiculously low prices. The low price offset the risks related to the long delivery period and quality issues of Chinese products. Significant quantities of Chinese square billet arrived in Turkey at the end of Q2 2015, and, according to the Metal Expert MENA Billet Market analytical report, as early as the beginning of Q3 more than a half of rebar output at Turkish mini-mills will be produced from the billet, imported both from China and the CIS, while traditionally Metal Expert around 80% of Turkish long steel was produced from scrap. Such a shift in the major scrap importing market seems very important for the industry. Square billet suppliers are regaining the market as it became more profitable for re-rollers to use imported billet instead of scrap. In this publication, which is dedicated to square billet, Metal Expert is trying to evaluate the current situation and the perspectives of the segment, both from re-rollers and billet suppliers point of view. The publication contains interviews with Al Jazeera Steel and Galloo, as well as the report on MENA Billet Conference held in May in Dubai, where major billet market participants gathered to discuss the current issues. You will also find the latest forecasts for Turkey’s billet market and other important and interesting news and data, which, hopefully, may help you in your business. Enjoy your reading! Andrey Pupchenko Deputy Managing Director Metal Expert Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 5 featured Billet imports to replace foreign scrap in Turkey Crude steel production at Turkish EAF-mills significantly decreased since the beginning of 2015, while long steel production remained steadily high due to increased billet imports. This trend first emerged in 2013, as mills were trying to maintain competitiveness in the key outlets, and now it is gaining momentum. Turkish electrical steel production decreased by 11,6% over six months of 2015 y-o-y to 10.79 million t, Turkish Steel Producers’ Association (Turkiye Celik Ureticileri Dernegi, TCUD) reports. Such level of output corresponds to around 55% of capacity utilization rate. According to the market players’ estimates, in July separate mills cut the production down to 45-50% of the nominal capacity, same rates are expected to be kept throughout August. “Average crude steel capacity usage will be crude steel output at EAF-mills down to 45-50% of nominal capacity Metal Expert maximum 50%, some mills can even go as low as 45%. A number of mills are already considering to cut working hours to 12-14 per day,” an Iskenderun mill’s representative commented to Metal Expert. Turkish statistical data strongly confirm the fact of a downturn in local crude steel output. Turkish billet production figures show a 4.9% y-o-y decrease in JanuaryJune, to 12 million t, according to TCUD. A decline in EAF capacity utilization was largely caused by significant cuts of imported scrap volumes over the analyzed period – by 12.9% to 8.47 million t. Along with strengthening trend to cut own crude steel and billet output, Turkish mills manage to keep longs production at quite Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 6 featured high level of 70-75% capacity utilization, having increased it in January-June by 1.1% to local longs demand (+9.4% to 8.9 million t), while export shipments continue to decline gradually (-10% to 5.2 million t). In current conditions Turkish mills chose to replace own billet production with rapidly increasing import volumes – by 38% y-o-y, to a significant figure of 2.2 million t in five months. Chinese semis suppliers today put Chinese imports put significant pressure on CIS billet suppliers significant pressure on CIS billet sellers in terms of pricing. According to different estimates, in the period of July – the beginning of September Turkish market will see the arrival of at least 500,000-600,000 t of billets ex-China that were booked earlier. Metal Expert The main reason for increased interest towards Chinese material aside from price difference with CIS (coming up to $30/t in favor of China) is that the problem of unacceptably long delivery lead time was partly solved. “Buyers now tend to combine bookings into a large vessel for a direct shipment, thus narrowing down the lead time to around 25-30 days. In separate cases provided delivery conditions are even similar to the ones ex-CIS, sometimes those don’t differ crucially,” one of Turkey’s longs suppliers told Metal Expert. Despite the clear tendency to billet imports upturn, a number of market players doubt that Turkey will be able to ramp up purchases much further. Most foreign semis are subject to an import duty (around 25%), which has to be paid in case the finished steel is sold in the local market. As a result, only if Turkish mills are able to strengthen presence in overseas outlets, foreign billet suppliers will get a chance to increase shipments to Turkey. Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 7 interview Al Jazeera Steel: No point in own steelmaking GCC members have been raising square billet imports in the recent years. The trend is expected to continue in Oman, especially taking into account high scrap prices, a hike in the gas price seen since the beginning of this year, and a two-fold increase of the electricity price for the summer months of May to August. In the GCC region on the whole, high scrap prices will lead to more purchases of billets. At the MENA Billet Import conference held in Dubai on May 20, Metal Expert met Dr. Bhaskar Dutta, the head of Oman’s Al Jazeera Steel, who told us about changes in semis supply geography and the current challenges and perspectives for the segment. Besides, he kindly informed us of the company’s projects and plans Your company works as a re-roller, buying the necessary semis volumes from local and foreign suppliers. How do you cope in a highly volatile market of semifinished products? What countries are your main suppliers? Two years back, the only producer, who was selling billets to Oman, was Modern Steel, and we were regularly buying from them the required quantities. Sometimes, we also used the material from Emirates Steel from Abu Dhabi and another steel plant, named Gulf Steel, which Emirates Steel took over about 3 years ago. Of course, during the recent years, Jindal Import billets are mainly coming from China Metal Expert Shadded came to the market. We are also buying from them now. Previously, most of the imported billets were coming from the CIS region and maybe a little bit from Iran. Today, let’s say in the last 8‑9 months, import billets are principally coming from China, basically due to price competitiveness. We were ordering around 11,000 t of billets per month. But we are about to commission our rebar facility, which will be added to our merchant bar mill. So, in the near future, in 2016, our billet requirement will reach 17,000‑20,000 t per month. Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 8 interview Could you please give more details about your rebar mill project? We have already finished most of the trials and we have also supplied small quantities to our costumers. The commercial production is expected to start in Q3. The total capacity of the merchant bar mill, which will have additionally a rebar facility, is in the range of 20,000 t to 22,000 t per month. Nowadays, we are doing 10,000‑11,000 t of merchant products, but since there will be a slow growth and as we are evaluating the market demand, we expect to do 60‑65% of merchant bar and 35‑40% of rebar in our total mix in the future. Steel market demand closely depends on end-user demand. What sales channels does your company use to meet demand from the customers? We established our pipe mill in 1999 and were selling to traders. Since we started our merchant mill in 2009, 70% We are always looking for new opportunities, but we have to be content in selling to MENA of merchant bars have been going to the same traders. Our products are mainly used in construction. Also, we supply steel, like channels used in airports construction in the UAE, and also angles for the transmission line towers (TLT) for electric power distribution. Our partners in the GCC region supply Al Jazeera’s steel products to several projects for infrastructure development. Despite the strong domestic and regional market focus, Al Jazeera Steel is developing its international sales strategy, especially in such promising markets as the USA and the EU. Does the company plan to expand the geography of sales? Unfortunately, taking into account the margins of merchant bar products and a significant transportation cost to the USA, it is not really feasible to sell there. We have been selling a reasonable amount of our pipes (nearly 20‑25% of our sales) to the USA. But for merchant bar product it is not possible. We are always looking for new opportunities, but specially in this context we have to be content in selling to the MENA region with our strength mainly in GCC countries. Currently, it is difficult for EAF-steel producers and re-rollers to compete with integrated steel mills who can take an advantage of lower production cost due to the iron ore price slump. Does Al Jazeera Steel have any plans for setting up steelmaking and DRI-producing facilities in order to be more competitive? We have no plans because gas availability is not enough in Oman. More important is that gas prices are quite high in comparison Metal Expert with other GCC countries. Based on these reasons, there is no point in captive steel making. The total steel making capacity Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 9 interview has increased drastically in Oman. Jindal Shadeed today has 2 million t of steel making capacity, of which still about 600,000 t will have to be sold after it completes the finished steel projects (rebar and wire rod mill) by the end of 2015. Sohar Steel doubled its capacity to 50,000 t per month and will consume it in their own rebar mills. Also, Modern Steel is the oldest producer with around 200,000 t capacity. So, in Oman we will have 800,000 t of billets from local suppliers in 2016. What does Al Jazeera Steel expect for 2015 regarding long steel market? What role will the company play in the market during this period? Initial 3 months were quite difficult basically because prices dropped drastically and influx of the material from Turkey and China was significantly high. However, the situation changed. Customers are gradually becoming sceptical in buying this chromium added steel from China. Another point is that prices nearly bottomed, and our buyers are now keen to build up stocks which they resisted in Q1 as they were not sure about how low the price would go. An important issue is infrastructure development. Today, all the announced projects are underway, and the money is spent on them. But if the oil price remains at the current level ($60/bbl), it would definitely be a problem in GCC. The government will reduce infrastructure expenditures, take away the subsidies, which will affect the people in GCC and also the requirement of steel. About Al Jazeera Steel: Al Jazeera is the only steel tube and structural products manufacturer in the Middle East. The company has a production facility in Sohar (Oman), which offers ERW tubular products in both black and galvanized class with plain end and threaded and coupled ends, conforming to different international standards. Al Jazeera diversified its product range by commissioning in 2009 a new production unit at the merchant bar mill capable of producing hot rolled products like angles, channels, squares, flats Metal Expert Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 10 interview Galloo: Challenge of today to find tonnage with right margins About Galloo Nowadays, the group has around 55 scrap yards, of which 2 are in the Netherlands and the rest are in Belgium and France. These yards, each with its own yard manager, are concentrated in clusters, of which one is a cluster manager. There are about 8 clusters. These cluster managers are reporting directly to the Galloo management. The main yard and office is in Menen/Halluin (on the border of Belgium and France), where there is centralized post shredded treatment with all necessary equipment, fluff treatment, fines treatment, plastic separation, WEEE treatment. Another important yard is the one in Gent, where bulk vessels are loaded with steel scrap for export and where there is also ship dismantling (recently we received a European recognition). Metal Expert The BIR World Recycling Convention & Exhibition, held in the UAE on May 17‑20, covered numerous issues relevant for the scrap recycling industry. Participants also discussed the latest trends and the market prospects. During the event, Metal Expert met Nico Rosseel, the Chief Commercial Officer of Galloo, who shared his thoughts on developments in the steel scrap segment, their causes and consequences, and spoke about the current situation in the European market. Galloo entered the market over 75 years ago and is currently among the largest players in the global ferrous scrap market. Could you please tell a little about the company structure and operation? Galloo is a family business, created by Joseph Galloo in 1939. His sonin-law — Antoine Vandeputte — continued the business and developed the company. Galloo is focused on technical skills and know-how of separation techniques together with commercial care of suppliers and customers, and later on takeovers of suppliers to guarantee the supply for our machines: shredders, shears, presses and heavy media separation machines. In 1999, we created a direction committee, in which Antoine Vande putte’s 2 sons became directors. Today there is a board, in which Mr. Vandeputte is still active, but on a daily basis it is our committee of directors with the third generation of the family who is running the business. Last year we sold around 1,750,000 t of recyclable materials, of which 850,000 t was steel scrap for export, 200,000 t was non-ferrous, 50,000 t Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 11 interview were plastics and remaining 650,000 t was steel scrap for the local market. As you see, our company is driven by the team of strong people to be advanced in what we try to do. Recently somebody said: the best way to predict the future is to create the future himself. By always trying new technics of recycling and by trying to recycle more and more out of the waste scrap you finally create your own future. What is your opinion on the current situation in the global scrap recycling industry? What problems and challenges are scrap collectors facing now? At the moment, scrap recycling companies are trying to find the tonnage they need to cover their overall cost structure. This is the challenge of today — to find the tonnage you scrap recycling companies invested a lot of money in machinery need with right margins (which are squeezed) in order to make some profit in the end. A lot of scrap recycling companies invested a lot of money in machinery with more capacity than before; and there is today simply not enough scrap around to fill this extra capacity. With machinery I mean bigger shredders, bigger shears, bigger presses. One will have to adapt himself to the current situation. Finally, the balance will come back: if scrap is not coming, than capacity will come down. Have you noticed anything special about the European ferrous scrap market performance in 2015? What can you say on the behaviour of key regional buyers? The available quantity of scrap, which came in the scrap yards in the first 3 months of 2015, was very very low, probably one of the lowest for many years. This pushed regional scrap buyers to work without margin to attract scrap anyway. What is your priority: shipments to European consumers or exports? Is the current euro exchange rate beneficial for EU scrap collectors in the global market? Our priority are shipments to end customers and to avoid middle men Metal Expert Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 12 interview (traders). We do not mind if these are European consumers or non-European consumers. Our price ex-works is the most important, this should be at a competitive level for the right quality. Indeed, the weaker euro is making it for the EU scrap collectors easier to compete on the export market with US scrap collectors. In 2014, Turkey, one of the largest scrap consumers, cut imports by 3% y-o-y, whereas other MENA countries ramped up their purchases by 35%. Do you consider this region an attractive outlet? Indeed, the MENA area (other than Turkey) is becoming an increasingly important and attractive outlet. It is important for a scrap exporter to be able to sell to many consumers, besides those in Turkey. I also believe there will be a need to invest a lot in this area in future. If we want to solve the problem of poverty in the north of Africa, the only way is to create jobs and wealth for these people in their countries. This is what China has been doing during the last 20 years for its own people, and, we can say, with a big success. EAF steel has become much less competitive as iron ore and scrap quotes are still far from parity. As a result, we saw the market collapse in February. Do you think anything like that is possible in the near future? The MENA area is becoming an increasingly important and attractive outlet I see steel scrap price going up to more than $300/t CFR Turkey and $300/t delivered European steel mills for good qualities in the near future. The recent increase in iron ore prices is a start. But the main reason is the higher demand for steel scrap because of a better economic climate, mainly in the automobile sector. Blast furnaces, which make automobile plate, can afford to pay a better price for good scrap if scrap is less available, as this is only a small percentage of their feed material. Today scrap is not a lot available. There is not much scrap in scrap yards, and what is there has a high buying price. So availability is low and demand is better. If today iron ore price goes down again, it will not have a big impact on the scrap price, as this is already calculated in the today’s price of scrap. A potential to go up is higher than to go down. Of course, we need to follow the currency of the euro. If euro gets back stronger, this might have an impact and drive scrap price in euro back down. Finally, can you share your forecast for H2 2015 with us? I am unable to forecast longer than 1 or 2 months, and still this is sometimes a gamble. But if demand from the industry grows, the availability of scrap will be getting better. And more volume is what Metal Expert we need to cover our cost and make some profit. The USA has had good activity during the last years; and Europe is mostly coming a step behind. Overall, I am positive for H2 2015. Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 13 interview KWTSteel: MENA rolling mills have no choice rather than to import semis GCC is among the world’s fastest developing regions. Owing to a wide variety of the projects underway, finished steel demand has rallied there. Primarily, this is the case for the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Kuwait also plays an important role and has a vast potential. During the BIR World Recycling Convention & Exhibition held in the UAE on May 17-20, Metal Expert discussed the latest trends in the finished steel, semis and raw material markets in the GCC region in general, and in Kuwait specifically, with Mr. Siddig Elhassan, Commercial Manager at KWTSteel. Metal Expert also inquired about the current state of affairs in the company and its plans for the coming years. Metal Expert Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 14 interview KWTSteel is the leading long steel producer in Kuwait. Please, tell us about your company and its cooperation with Austria’s voestalpine. Kuwait needs to catch up with neighbouring countries The project idea appeared in 1996 and after two years we started its implementation. We chose technologies provided by Austrian voestalpine. Our plants located in the Shuaiba industrial area started production in 2001. Initially, the mill capacity was 500,000 tpy of rebar. Later we upgraded the mill to reach the current level of 750,000 tpy. In 2012, we acquired our second Rolling Mill also located in the Shuaiba industrial area. We revamped the mill and the producing capacity is 450,000 tpy and as such we became the sole steel manufacturer in Kuwait. Square billet demand increased in the Middle East in recent years. What, in your opinion, is the outlook for square billet? The Middle East, predominantly GCC, is one of the fastest growing markets, which combines quite rich countries with high development potential as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE etc. But Kuwait is far behind them in expansion of infrastructure projects and construction activity. However, there were some changes in the country. Nowadays, the Kuwaiti government focuses on infrastructure development, enabling steel industry to grow at the same pace. We believe this trend will continue through the next 10-15 years. The rise in steel consumption determines demand for square billets. It comes because there are many rolling mills in the MENA region and most of them do not have their own steelmaking facilities. They have no Metal Expert Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 15 interview choice other than to import semis. This situation will remain for at least 3-5 years. Even the biggest integrated producers, such as SABIC, Qatar Steel or Emirates Steel, import billets from time to time, depending on the market situation (iron ore, scrap and billet prices). In line with billet demand improvement, scrap needs in the Middle East also We are pushing to have 100% market share Metal Expert increase as it is better economically to use this raw material in production. The only limiting factor is the price. The main advantage of scrap use is the material quality. When you melt scrap, you use less fluxes, less refractory, while with iron ore the life of refractory is shorter and you use more energy to melt. On top of that, you get better yield from scrap than DRI/ HBI. Many of integrated steel companies realized that, and, to remain competitive, they started to use more scrap. Initially, their furnaces were designed to use maximum 5-7% of scrap, now they stretched these volumes to around 15-20%. Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 16 interview What do you think about competition in Kuwait’s long steel segment? Since we are the sole producer in Kuwait we have no domestic competitors, but our capacity is not enough to fully feed the market needs. The main threat for our business is import. We face small volumes imported from the neighbouring countries such as the UAE and Qatar. These countries were traditional suppliers to Kuwait long before we started our production. The significant volumes of longs were coming from Turkey, as Turkish suppliers were well-known in our market. But everything has changed since that time. During some period of time we imported billets and worked as a re-roller, facing tough pressure. Since we launched our melt shop (1,200,000 tpy) and rolling mills (1,200,000 tpy with required plant) we became more competitive, enjoying around 85-90% market share. But we are pushing to have 100% after all investment we plan to make. Please, share you opinion regarding export potential of KWTSteel. At the moment, we do not sell abroad due to government restrictions. Furthermore, even if there is an opportunity for us to export, we do not need it as the local market is very promising and our priority is to cover the local market. But in future it can be interesting in view of our expansion plans and a steady growth of steel consumption in MENA. For example, Qatar may be an interesting destination on the back of the World Cup projects and common construction activity. Saudi Arabia also has a good potential amid population growth and a big amount of projects to be underway. In early 2015, Kuwait approved a five-year development plan worth $116 billion in investment, mostly in construction and infrastructure. How will steel demand change due to this? Kuwait was one of the most developed countries in the region before 1989-1990, but lost this position after the war with Iraq. Metal Expert Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 17 interview Today, the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are ahead of our country. Kuwait needs to catch up with the neighbouring countries. There are many projects in the pipeline. Some of them have already seen the light and spurred the steel demand. We are quiet positive and optimistic in our forecasts, seeing further steel consumption improvement in the country. Does the fall in the oil price has an impact on the Kuwait economy in general and KWTSteel in particular? This is an interesting question. Let me explain. Oil is the main source of income in Kuwait and other GCC countries. Price downturn definitely influences the government spending. But huge amount of projects are underway and their budget has been already approved. So, if oil prices fall for the next 5 years, it will not be an issue for the projects taking place today. We do not expect a standstill and have serious doubts about putting announced projects on hold. Anyway, everything depends on how long the current oil market trend will continue. Do you have plans to build a DRI module? Yes. As you know, Kuwait has resources of natural gas, but they are not really explored. So we are looking to the neighbouring countries and in the MENA region, where we can allocate our new production facilities. We have an idea to build a 1.6 million tpy DRI plant and a 1.4 million tpy melt shop. As soon as we find the place we will start these projects. We have many options on the table and we are trying to find the best. We will start with semis and after that maybe expand our presence in sections and rebar. At the moment, we have rolling mills in Kuwait and own steelmaking facility. But our melt shop is not enough to fulfil current longs production capacity and we are forced to buy billets to cover the gap. Our priority is to have a new DRI plant and a melt shop. Now we are upon the look for an appropriate place. At the end of our interview we would like to ask you about your expectations for the rest of the year. TThe second half will be almost the same. Nothing will change in 2015. There will be some price fluctuation in raw material and finished steel segments. Scrap prices will balance out in 2015-2016 as expected. Metal Expert Iron ore quotes will go down again due to the global oversupply. Demand in China will stabilize a little bit as the Chinese government is changing their philosophy from investments to consuming system. Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 18 event MENA Billet Import Conference: In right place at right time Transformations recently observed in the global iron ore and steel scrap segments have shifted priorities of many mills from own production of semi-finished products, billet in particular, to purchases from the free market. Higher interest in billet has promoted cooperation between sellers and buyers, especially in such fast-developing long steel market as the Middle East and North Africa. All the interested parties gathered at the MENA Billet Import one-day conference held by Metal Expert in Dubai, the UAE, at the end of May. This event took place for the first time, but the hot topic made it possible to gather representatives of more than 40 companies, including big producers such as Turkey’s Icdas, UAE’s Emirates Steel Industries, Qatar Steel, Oman’s Jindal Shadeed Iron & Steel, Saudi Arabia’s Rajhi Steel, Sulb National Company and many others on one platform. According to participants, the main advantage of the MENA Billet Import Conference was its club-like character, when right people gathered in the right place at the right time. Metal Expert The event included three topical sessions and a round table. The first session was opened by a representative of Austria’s F.J. Elsner Trading, whose report covered developments in HBI and scrap markets in the world and in the Middle East in particular. Further speeches also dealt with estimations of the current situation in the raw materials segments and prospects of growth of demand for steel scrap and metallics in the region. Participants Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 19 event Market players’ outlook: Emirates Steel Industries (UAE) With the Middle East focusing on HBI consumption, high expenses for pellets and lower energy subsidies amid falling oil prices force steelmakers to look for alternative raw materials, including scrap for EAF production. But despite the expected increase in regional scrap consumption, further semis imports stay possible. Consumers from the Middle East on the whole and the UAE in particular mostly source CIS and Chinese feedstock as it is cheaper than local material. That is why representatives of the steel sector would certainly not plan the capacity expansion projects announced if they knew about such a severe competition before. Egyptian Iron & Steel (Egypt) Today, it is not urgent to become self-sufficient in semis and refrain from billet imports. The whole situation depends on market conditions, and if it is more profitable to purchase billet, everyone will seek to be the first to do it. Al-Yamamah Steel (Saudi Arabia) Despite sourcing HBI now, we may switch to scrap consumption as soon as in end2015 if oil prices continue falling and consequently cause cancellation or reduction of the effective energy subsidies. This, in turn, will become the key factor driving up prices for gas, used in HBI production, which will result in higher costs. Apart from us, the whole sector suffers from the problem. Thus, the situation forces local producers to use square billet as an alternative raw material. Middle Eastern buyers import large tonnages of the semis, which are unlikely to decrease considering rising demand for long products from large-scale construction and infrastructure projects. SABIC (Saudi Arabia) Square billet will remain popular in the Middle East even though many mills, including those in Saudi Arabia, are operating at reduced capacity on suspension of a number of construction and infrastructure projects amid poor conditions in the global oil market. agreed that consumption of these types of raw materials will rise as production capacity scales up in line with the global trend. According to forecasts made by the World Steel Association (WSA), scrap demand will increase by 110 million t (to 695 million t) by 2019, driven by higher consumption in China, Turkey and the ASEAN countries, whereas HBI demand will go up by 35 million t (to 110 million t) owing to India, the Middle East and North Africa. The second session was devoted to prospects of the regional billet market, drawing the highest interest among participants of the conference as they were able to get answers from key suppliers of the material from the CIS and Iran. In particular, a representative of Metinvest International S.A. confirmed that the Middle East and North Africa remained the most important outlets for CIS exporters, with sales to these regions accounting for some 65% of the total shipment volume. He also added that Turkey and Saudi Arabia were the main drivers for shipments this year, thereby contributing to optimization of production costs of finished goods. Delegates also expressed high interest in a report made by a representative of Iran’s Khouzestan Steel Company, which got more important in the light of removal of international sanctions, making Iranian products a potential alternative for Chinese material. Another popular presentation was made by commercial director of Spain’s Celsa Group, who stressed on growing pressure from China in the billet segment, which caused a 30% year-to-date drop in supplies from Europe to the regions (primarily to North Africa). The third block of the conference mostly included issues related to production costs Metal Expert Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 20 event Speakers and topics: Kim Marti International Commercial Director Celsa Group Europe: Long product market evolution and exports to MENA region Alain Eeckman Senior Trader Raw Materials F.J. Elsner Trading GmbH HBI/DRI market development and comparisons to scrap Ved Prakash Commercial Director Gemini Corporation N.V. International Scrap market - often beating the expectation and fundamentals. Flow of scrap trade market and future market outlook To what level will the long product consumption in Sameer Dabbas MENA countries grow under the conditions of low oil CEO Hadeed Emirates Contracting prices? Mehran Abbas Zadeh Strategic Planning Manager Khouzestan Steel Company Export of Billet from Iran to MENA market Andrey Pupchenko Deputy Managing Director Metal Expert Pricing in long product and square billet market of MENA region. Competitiveness of the main suppliers Andriy Syedykh Ph.D., Senior analyst Metal Expert Global Markets After the Chinese Miracle: Stagnation or Shift to New Leaders? Tetiana Spanchak Deputy Head of Research Metal Expert MENA: long products demand prospects Viktor Vukusic Billet Export from CIS to MENA region General Manager Metinvest International SA Gulf Branch Metal Expert and consumption of finished products. The problem of production costs in the context of stiffening rivalry drew keen interest, confirming that mills will continue replacing own billet production with purchased material to stay competitive. The trend is only gathering pace and will continue for several years. The final chord of the conference was given by the round table moderated by representatives of Oman’s Al Jazeera Steel, Spain’s Celsa Group and China’s Hangzhou CIEC International. The discussion panel was dedicated to influence of the political and military situation in several countries of the region (Yemen, Iraq, Syria) on the markets for finished and semi-finished products as well as a likelihood of revisions of capacity expansion plans in view of the unfavourable situation in the oil market. One of the key topics of the discussion were export prospects of Iran after removal of sanctions in the context of competition with Chinese and CIS suppliers as well as its influence on the Turkish market. Chinese pressure on local and export pricing in the context of imbalance between scrap and iron ore prices also drew high interest, as usual. Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 21 facts & figures BILLET IMPORT RATIO MENA'S BILLET IMPORT million t 14 100% 90% 12 80% 10 70% 8 60% 6 40% 50% 30% 4 20% 2 10% 0 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2006 2007 2008 2009 regional billet 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 non-regional billet BILLET IMPORT FROM OUTSIDE MENA MENA’S INTAREGIONAL BILLET IMPORT million t million t 3.5 12 3.0 10 2.5 8 2.0 6 1.5 4 1.0 2 0.5 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 TURKEY BILLET IMPORT STRUCTURE Q1-Q3 2014 Q1-Q3 2015f 1% 4% 9% 28% 68% 90% Metal Expert CIS China Others Square CIS Billet inChina Focus |Others August 2015 | 22 market outlook Chinese billet invades Turkey Prices for CIS billet in Turkey have decreased to $335-340/t CFR in the third week of July, by $30/t down from the second half of June. Moreover, Chinese billet is even cheaper now – $310/t CFR. Increasing imports of Chinese semis is the key factor determining the situation in the Turkish billet market. The segment’s pricing is based on Chinese quotes. Aggressive policy of China defined the final outcome of the stand-off between Turkish mini-mills and scrap suppliers to Turkey, with the latter being forced to slash offers at last. As a result, the market offered quite attractive alternative to traditional steel melting using scrap, so local mills have partly become re-rollers. According to Metal Expert’s estimate, about 55% of June rebar in Turkey was made from imported billet instead of using steelmakers’ own EAFs. Turkish square billet import structure 1800 1600 1400 '000 t 1200 1000 China 800 Others 600 CIS 400 200 0 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15* Q3 15* *- Metal Expert's estimate Metal Expert Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 23 market outlook Rebar production costs in Turkey in July 2015 420 410 400 Turkey rebar price, FOB 402 395 $/t 390 380 370 365 360 350 340 330 from USA scrap (at $229/t) from CIS billet (at $338/t) Square billet has become a complete alternative to scrap. The segment’s capacity (in terms of semis imports) has showed almost 1.5-fold upturn over the past three quarters. According to Metal Expert’s estimate, Turkey will import almost 1.65 million t of billet in Q3 2015, against 1.343 million t in Q2 and 1.17 million t in Q1. In Q1-Q2 the capacity of the billet market increased mostly thanks to supplies from the CIS, while in Q3 influx of cheap Chinese semis will drive purchases from the CIS down to traditional levels. After scrap prices plunged, competition between scrap and billet has tightened in July. In June steel melting in EAFs using scrap was economically irrational (considering nominal prices, since no actual raw materials purchases were made). At the beginning of July production costs for rebar made from CIS billet and scrap were practically equal in Turkey, Metal Expert from Chinese billet (at $310/t) but falling billet prices made semis more attractive later on. Nevertheless, re-rolling of Chinese billet is the most profitable now, which will continue to put some pressure on pricing of both CIS billet exporters and scrap suppliers given sluggish steel product market sentiments. Possibility for further decline in Chinese offers is limited. Although Chinese suppliers have been highly active lately in light of large sales, they are no longer so competitive as before. Excessive production capacities observed over the past months in tandem with further domestic consumption slowdown in China have predetermined oversupply of almost all steel products and a plunge in both domestic and export prices. Thus, Chinese producers have practically zero margins in their domestic longs market, while export margins for billet have hit an all-time low of some $10/t, as Metal Expert estimates. Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 24 market outlook Excessive production will have two main effects on Chinese companies in the billet market: (1) output of steel and steel products in China may plunge till late summer, which in Q4 can lead to lower quantities of billet available to Turkey at cheap prices; (2) further softening of billet offers from Chinese companies is limited. The latter will predetermine a price bottom in the Turkish billet market. Unlike China, CIS suppliers stand firmer. According to Metal Expert’s assessment, in July margins at Russian and Ukrainian integrated steelworks have been at some $90/t. Only suppliers like Novorosmetall and affiliated Abinsk Electric Steel Works in Russia as well as Ukraine’s Elektrostal (Kurakhovo) can face some problems since they run EAFs and consume relative expensive scrap. Although CIS suppliers generally aim at high margins rather than quantities, they will be able at least to maintain positions in Metal Expert Turkey in the next few months. However, the companies may reduce quotes more due to substantial gap with Chinese offers. A nuclear deal between Iran and the world powers will help Iran to come back to the global market. After Iran fully resumes international settlements, local companies will be among the first to feel the changes getting broader options in the export markets, Metal Expert estimates. At present, only some state-owned companies like Mobarakeh Steel and Khouzestan Steel can do business abroad. As Iranian banks re-join SWIFT international payment system, positions of Iranian billet exporters will improve. Turkey is expected to be in the list of the main sales destinations. Prices for Chinese billet are close to the bottom already, according to Metal Expert’s assessment. Further rollback will be possible only if iron ore quotes decrease. CIS billet tags are likely to show just moderate decline. Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 25 global trends Iron ore surplus not to rise in 2015 Despite expectations, iron ore surplus will not increase too much this year as shutdowns of small Australian, Canadian and many Chinese mines will offset a major rise in supply from Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. Besides, even such leaders as Vale will not increase sales significantly in view of price drops. This year, Australian largest iron ore producers, mostly Rio Tinto, will push up the output by approximately 110 million t. Despite delaying long-term programme for raising capacities, BHP Billiton, the second largest group in Australia, has kept its production target unchanged for this year. The biggest iron ore supplier in the world, Brazil' Vale will increase sales this year not so sharply as it was expected in the end of last year. The producer earlier informed it intended to ramp up the output at least by 13 million t in 2015. However, Vale's total iron ore shipments went up only by 1.1 million t, according to Sinferbase. It will be possible to partly offset higher supply from large Australian companies due to smaller producers leaving the market. According to Metal Expert’s data, some 87 million t of the material will be withdrawn from the market till the year’s end mostly because of shutdowns of Chinese mines. “This year we have a forecast that 85 million t will leave the market and further 80 million t are at risk,” Sam Walsh, Rio Tinto’s CEO, said May 7. Among Australian and Canadian assets, the stoppage of production has been announced this year by six companies, capable of producing Metal Expert Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 26 global trends 27 million t in total. Small mines started leaving the market back last year as iron ore prices halved. In Q1 2015, such companies as Cliffs Natural Resources had to stop ore extraction because prices continued declining even despite a slight seasonal drop in supply. Although general surplus in the raw materials market will not increase too much this year, prices are still not forecast to firm up. In Q4, the market, to be left by the majority of small producers by that time, will see another rise in iron ore supply, mostly Metal Expert from Rio Tinto. To fulfil the 2015 target of 350 million t, Rio Tinto should ship at least 92 million tpq this year (72.5 million t in Q1). It means that the company will have to boost deliveries by the year’s end. Besides, in September exports of the material produced at Roy Hill asset with a capacity of 50 million tpy will be started by a new player in the iron ore market – Hancock Prospecting. “Prices went up for a while [in May-June]. However, late this year we expect them to fix at $45/t CFR,” a representative of a top-ten largest steelmaker in China told Metal Expert. Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 27 news Turkish mills delay import billet bookings amid uncertainty in longs segment 345/t CFR, depending on region (September-August shipment). Market players report thin inquiries. Turkish mills continue to delay import billet bookings despite a price increase, detected in separate scrap contracts. Steelmakers refrain from semis purchases due to unstable forecast regarding longs segment for September. Meanwhile, Turkish re-rollers still tend to cooperate with local billet sellers because of better pricing. Billet offers ex-China to Turkey showed a $10-15/t increase over the week to $315-325/t CFR due to upward movement in iron ore. Turkish mills lost interest in purchases from China. “Considering that billet from China will be delivered in late September – beginning of October, Turkish mills are not eager to jump on the offers,” a major Turkish trader told Metal Expert. In addition, rebar demand in both local and export markets remains quite slow, which makes the upward trend questionable. CIS billet offers to Turkey remained unchanged over the week amid slow buying activity, staying at $335- Turkey: square billet prices, $/t At the same time, Turkish re-rollers continue to give preference to domestic billets due to loyal suppliers’ policy. Steelmakers decided to keep prices largely unchanged – $350-360/t EXW (without 18% VAT). Around 20,000 t billets were sold this week at $355/t EXW Iskenderun. Some Marmara mills attempted to increase offers up to $360-365/t EXW, with no luck to sell. The latest contract in this part of the country were signed at $350/t EXW. 430 415 400 385 370 355 340 325 08.05 22.05 05.06 Local market, EXW, excl. VAT Metal Expert 19.06 03.07 Import from CIS, CFR 17.07 31.07 Export, FOB In general, market players find it difficult to forecast future developments. Local and export demand for rebar is unlike to strengthen much, thus defining the trend in billet markets. Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 28 news CIS square billet export market in balance By end-July, the CIS square billet export market stabilized – August billet has been sold at the same price for several weeks already. Market players believe the situation will not change much in the near future. The pressure from Chinese square billet suppliers has eased – upward moves have suppressed demand. Besides, most buyers are reluctant to book the material to be delivered as late as in the second half of September. Rising scrap quotes in Turkey are playing into CIS exporters’ hands too, but still this is not enough for square billet prices to rise. “Stability is optimal for [CIS] suppliers now. The market is not ready to accept much higher prices yet,” one international trader said. Deal prices for the CIS semis have stabilized at $315325/t FOB Azov-Black Sea in end-July, against last week’s $320-325/t FOB Azov-Black Sea. The bottom Offer prices for CIS billet from traders, $/t Destination Price, СFR Price, FOB Black Sea Turkey 335-340 320 Egypt 340* 320 Tunisia 350 320 * – deals Metal Expert end of the range corresponds to the level of contracts for the Ukrainian material shipped from Mariupol, “where quotes are lower in view of higher buyer risks,” market players comment. Most of the material is still sold to Egypt – CIS billet suppliers are currently focused on this destination. Turkish buyers are hardly interested in the CIS semis now. “Turkey is not the best sales outlet now ... most buyers there bid not higher than $310/t FOB [Black Sea]. We will see no improvements until the longs market recovers,” the source told Metal Expert. CIS: billet export prices, $/t FOB Azov-Black Sea 380 370 360 350 340 330 320 08.05 22.05 05.06 19.06 03.07 17.07 31.07 Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 29 news Demand for Chinese square billet declines in SE Asia, buyers insist on discounts Demand for Chinese square billet has declined in SE Asia late this month. Most re-rollers who booked Chinese semis back in mid-July are currently backing away from deals, waiting for prices to fall further. Suppliers, however, have been unable to grant discounts so far – iron ore prices have been stable this week, while domestic square billet and longs quotes have gained $7/t and $11-12/t respectively. FOB quotes of 5 sp square billet have remained unchanged at $290-293/t. Philippine buyers are still uninterested in Chinese billet in view of high inventories. 5 sp square billet is currently offered at $293/t FOB ($320/t CFR), $5/t above last week’s deals, while buyers are bidding no higher than $285/t FOB ($315/t CFR). Taiwanese buyers are also booking no Chinese billet, fearing that its prices will keep rolling back. Presently, Q235 material (similar to 3 sp) is available at $280-284/t FOB ($304/t CFR), $10-16/t down week-on-week. Q275 semis (similar to 5 sp) is quoted at $290/t FOB ($310/t CFR), and gr.60 V-added ones made to ASTM A615 – at $305-307/t FOB ($325-327/t CFR). Local re-rollers are bidding $10-15/t below though. Vietnam keeps ramping up imports of Chinese billet on lower competitiveness of own production Since the start of this year, Vietnam has significantly raised imports of steel products, partly due to higher purchases of semis from China amid falling competitiveness of Vietnamese steel. In January-May 2015, Vietnam became the world’s third largest importer of Chinese products, receiving 3.5 million t from abroad, according to Alacero. A big rise was seen in square billet deliveries, which more than doubled to 300,000 t in the first four months of 2015, while the country has enough capacities to produce own billet (some 5 million t). This was due to uncompetitive steel products made of own billet due to higher cost as compared to consumption of Chinese material. “Quotes of iron ore used by Chinese producers as the main feedstock fall, while prices for scrap we consume do not go that way. As a result, it is getting unprofitable to produce billet in Vietnam,” a Vietnamese producer commented to Metal Expert. Metal Expert Competitiveness of local steel production was also depressed by the government’s recent interference in the import scrap segment. In particular, scrap importers are obliged to deposit 10-20% of the sum depending on purchased volumes. Although the government aimed to reduce inflow of low-quality material to the country, the payment has become an additional pressure on steelmakers, who already operate at 50% capacity, according to the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA). “Many Vietnamese steel mills are on the verge of bankruptcy, as scrap expenses for making their own steel billet are much higher compared to import material,” Director of Hoa Phat Steel responded to local agency Vietnam News. In these circumstances, Vietnamese billet producers have to ask the government to limit cheap imports. Still, most market participants doubt that restrictive measures against imports of square billet will be imposed, considering rising demand for longs in the country. Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 30 Metal Expert Square Billet in Focus Comments from readers are welcome. 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