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Metal Expert
Square Billet in Focus
August 2015
Billet imports
to replace foreign scrap in Turkey
Al Jazeera Steel:
“No point in own steel making”
Iron ore surplus not to rise
in 2015
Contents
event
featured
Billet imports
to replace foreign
scrap in Turkey
MENA Billet Import Conference:
In right place
at right time
6
Transformations in the global
iron ore and steel scrap segments
have shifted priorities from own
production of billet to purchases
from the free market
Crude steel production
at Turkish EAF-mills
significantly decreased
since the beginning of
2015, while long steel
production remained
steadily high due
to increased billet imports
facts & figures22
market outlook
interview
Al Jazeera Steel:
KWTSteel:
No point in own
steelmaking8
MENA rolling mills have
no choice rather than
to import semis
GCC members
have been
raising square
billet imports in
the recent years
GCC is among the
world’s fastest
developing
regions. Owing
to a wide variety
of the projects
underway,
finished steel
demand has rallied there
Galloo:
Challenge of today
to find tonnage
with right margins
The BIR World
Recycling
Convention
& Exhibition,
held in the
UAE on May
17‑20, covered
numerous issues
relevant for the
scrap recycling industry
Metal Expert
19
11
Chinese billet invades
Turkey23
14
Prices for CIS billet in Turkey have
decreased to $335-340/t CFR in the
third week of July, by $30/t down
from the second half of June
global trends
Iron ore surplus not
to rise in 2015
26
Despite expectations, iron ore
surplus will not increase too much
this year
news
Turkish mills delay import billet bookings amid uncertainty
in longs segment
28
CIS square billet export market in balance
29
Demand for Chinese square billet declines in SE Asia,
buyers insist on discounts
30
Vietnam keeps ramping up imports of Chinese billet
on lower competitiveness of own production
30
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 2
editorial
Square billet
is coming back
Metal Expert has great pleasure to present its first special review with a focus
on square billet. But why is it billet we want to devote our special attention
to in this publication?
A collapse of iron ore and oil prices
observed last year set an end to the longlasting supercycle in raw materials formerly
caused by the unprecedented, in rate and
scale, transformation of China into the top
industrial economy. The global financial
crisis of 2008 just slowed down the wave
of the price growth, with commodity prices
yet staying at their historical highs. It was
actually China again that reversed the
trend in 2014, when the growth of domestic
steel use in China, the world’s largest
consumer of raw materials, started not only
to decelerate but gave way to a decline for
the first time over many years. This resulted
in more than a threefold over just 18 months
decrease of iron ore prices from a great
high of $144/t CFR China observed
in 2013 (for 62% Fe fines).
absorbing great tonnages of raw materials
and constantly raising steel and pig iron
production. Steel companies all over
the world, facing oversupply and weak
margins, had not enough power to influence
raw materials suppliers even by cutting
production and balancing out their regional
markets, as prices for raw materials
wereactually formed in China.
The end of the boom in raw materials
prices has not only stiffened competition,
but eventually transformed the whole steel
industry, which, in particularly, brought
square billet back into a high-margin
product category.
The CIS producers, mostly oriented on
square billet export, were quite successful
amid growing iron ore prices, as most of
them are vertically integrated companies
with own raw material supply. However,
they earned on raw material assets, not
downstream business. CIS mills benefited
from strong iron ore as square billet pricing
was based on steel scrap quotation, and
scrap sellers, in their turn, were raising
prices referring to upward iron ore trend.
It is hard to overestimate the impact
of the commodity supercycle on the
global metallurgy. Steel production cost
skyrocketed globally, as China was
Metal Expert
The disproportion in commodity prices
gave major steel producers, such as
ArcelorMittal, Nippon Steel & Sumitomo
Metals Corporation, POSCO and others,
a hard time. It, however, also harassed
small companies, particularly the Middle
East-based mini-mills, despite their focus
on the strong local construction sector
in the era of strong oil prices.
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 3
editorial
What was good for some turned pain in
the neck for others. Independent scrap-fed
mini-mills have been facing falling profits
over the last 3-4 years due to rising scrap
prices. The weighted average margin
of Turkish mini-mills, major exporters
of long steel products to the Middle East,
significantly dropped. It fell from $32/t in
2013 to $23/t in 2014 and a mere $14/t
in H1 2015, according to Metal Expert
assessment.
Producers without steel melting facilities
were even deeper in trouble. They
were forced to either halt operations or
urgently install electric-arc furnaces. This
considerably depressed square billet trade
globally. According to ISSB, square billet
Metal Expert
imports in the countries of the Middle East
were falling over the last 3 years: from
12.7 million t in 2012 to 9.8 million t in 2013
and 9.1 million t in 2014.
Iron ore collapse eased cost pressure on
steelworks worldwide, which have been
reporting higher profits, or at least lower
losses, since the second half of 2014. Yet,
positions of mini-mills remained depressed,
as scrap suppliers from Europe and the
USA, who lately heavily invested in their
recycling operations, made their best to
prevent scrap prices from falling. As a
result, scrap price decreased much less
comparing with iron ore.
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 4
editorial
This badly affected performance of minimills, who started to suffer losses. At
the same time, the CIS billet suppliers
benefited again from high scrap prices,
as the billet pricing was still based
on scrap quotation. Moreover, losses
from their raw materials business were
fully compensated by super profits –
sometimes more than $100/t – from
weakening currencies against
the US dollar.
However, this situation – high profits amid
excess rolling and steelmaking capacity –
was too ideal to last long. China did not
miss the opportunity of falling iron ore
prices and increased exports of steel
products, billet in particular, to the global
market, setting ridiculously low prices.
The low price offset the risks related to the
long delivery period and quality issues of
Chinese products.
Significant quantities of Chinese square
billet arrived in Turkey at the end of Q2
2015, and, according to the Metal Expert
MENA Billet Market analytical report, as
early as the beginning of Q3 more than a
half of rebar output at Turkish mini-mills will
be produced from the billet, imported both
from China and the CIS, while traditionally
Metal Expert
around 80% of Turkish long steel was
produced from scrap.
Such a shift in the major scrap importing
market seems very important for the
industry. Square billet suppliers are
regaining the market as it became more
profitable for re-rollers to use imported billet
instead of scrap.
In this publication, which is dedicated
to square billet, Metal Expert is trying
to evaluate the current situation and the
perspectives of the segment, both from
re-rollers and billet suppliers point of view.
The publication contains interviews with Al
Jazeera Steel and Galloo, as well as the
report on MENA Billet Conference held in
May in Dubai, where major billet market
participants gathered to discuss the current
issues. You will also find the latest forecasts
for Turkey’s billet market and other important
and interesting news and data, which,
hopefully, may help you in your business.
Enjoy your reading!
Andrey Pupchenko
Deputy Managing Director
Metal Expert
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 5
featured
Billet imports
to replace foreign
scrap in Turkey
Crude steel production at Turkish
EAF-mills significantly decreased
since the beginning of 2015,
while long steel production
remained steadily high due
to increased billet imports. This
trend first emerged in 2013,
as mills were trying to maintain
competitiveness in the key outlets,
and now it is gaining momentum.
Turkish electrical steel production
decreased by 11,6% over six months
of 2015 y-o-y to 10.79 million t, Turkish
Steel Producers’ Association (Turkiye Celik
Ureticileri Dernegi, TCUD) reports. Such
level of output corresponds to around 55%
of capacity utilization rate. According to the
market players’ estimates, in July separate
mills cut the production down to 45-50%
of the nominal capacity, same rates are
expected to be kept throughout August.
“Average crude steel capacity usage will be
„„ crude steel output at EAF-mills
down to 45-50% of nominal capacity
Metal Expert
maximum 50%, some mills can even go as
low as 45%. A number of mills are already
considering to cut working hours to
12-14 per day,” an Iskenderun mill’s
representative commented to Metal Expert.
Turkish statistical data strongly confirm
the fact of a downturn in local crude steel
output. Turkish billet production figures
show a 4.9% y-o-y decrease in JanuaryJune, to 12 million t, according to TCUD.
A decline in EAF capacity utilization
was largely caused by significant cuts of
imported scrap volumes over the analyzed
period – by 12.9% to 8.47 million t.
Along with strengthening trend to cut own
crude steel and billet output, Turkish mills
manage to keep longs production at quite
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 6
featured
high level of 70-75% capacity utilization,
having increased it in January-June by
1.1% to local longs demand (+9.4% to
8.9 million t), while export shipments continue
to decline gradually (-10% to 5.2 million t).
In current conditions Turkish mills chose to
replace own billet production with rapidly
increasing import volumes – by 38% y-o-y,
to a significant figure of 2.2 million t in five
months. Chinese semis suppliers today put
„„ Chinese imports put significant
pressure on CIS billet suppliers
significant pressure on CIS billet sellers
in terms of pricing. According to different
estimates, in the period of July – the
beginning of September Turkish market will
see the arrival of at least 500,000-600,000 t
of billets ex-China that were booked earlier.
Metal Expert
The main reason for increased interest
towards Chinese material aside from price
difference with CIS (coming up to $30/t
in favor of China) is that the problem of
unacceptably long delivery lead time was
partly solved. “Buyers now tend to combine
bookings into a large vessel for a direct
shipment, thus narrowing down the lead
time to around 25-30 days. In separate
cases provided delivery conditions are even
similar to the ones ex-CIS, sometimes those
don’t differ crucially,” one of Turkey’s longs
suppliers told Metal Expert.
Despite the clear tendency to billet imports
upturn, a number of market players doubt
that Turkey will be able to ramp up purchases
much further. Most foreign semis are subject
to an import duty (around 25%), which has to
be paid in case the finished steel is sold in the
local market. As a result, only if Turkish mills
are able to strengthen presence in overseas
outlets, foreign billet suppliers will get
a chance to increase shipments to Turkey.
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 7
interview
Al Jazeera Steel:
No point in own
steelmaking
GCC members have been raising square billet imports in the recent years.
The trend is expected to continue in Oman, especially taking into account high
scrap prices, a hike in the gas price seen since the beginning of this year, and
a two-fold increase of the electricity price for the summer months of May
to August. In the GCC region on the whole, high scrap prices will lead to more
purchases of billets.
At the MENA Billet Import conference held in Dubai on May 20, Metal Expert met
Dr. Bhaskar Dutta, the head of Oman’s Al Jazeera Steel, who told us about changes
in semis supply geography and the current challenges and perspectives for the
segment. Besides, he kindly informed us of the company’s projects and plans
Your company works as a re-roller, buying the necessary semis volumes from
local and foreign suppliers. How do you cope in a highly volatile market of semifinished products? What countries are your main suppliers?
Two years back, the only producer, who
was selling billets to Oman, was Modern
Steel, and we were regularly buying from
them the required quantities. Sometimes,
we also used the material from Emirates
Steel from Abu Dhabi and another steel
plant, named Gulf Steel, which Emirates
Steel took over about 3 years ago. Of
course, during the recent years, Jindal
„„ Import billets are mainly
coming from China
Metal Expert
Shadded came to the market. We are also
buying from them now.
Previously, most of the imported billets were
coming from the CIS region and maybe a
little bit from Iran.
Today, let’s say in the last 8‑9 months, import
billets are principally coming from China,
basically due to price competitiveness. We
were ordering around 11,000 t of billets per
month. But we are about to commission
our rebar facility, which will be added to our
merchant bar mill. So, in the near future,
in 2016, our billet requirement will reach
17,000‑20,000 t per month.
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 8
interview
Could you please give more details about your rebar mill project?
We have already finished most of the trials
and we have also supplied small quantities
to our costumers. The commercial
production is expected to start in Q3.
The total capacity of the merchant bar mill,
which will have additionally a rebar facility,
is in the range of 20,000 t to 22,000 t
per month. Nowadays, we are doing
10,000‑11,000 t of merchant products, but
since there will be a slow growth and as
we are evaluating the market demand,
we expect to do 60‑65% of merchant bar
and 35‑40% of rebar in our total mix in the
future.
Steel market demand closely depends on end-user demand. What sales
channels does your company use to meet demand from the customers?
We established our pipe mill in 1999
and were selling to traders. Since we
started our merchant mill in 2009, 70%
„„ We are always looking for
new opportunities, but we have
to be content in selling to MENA
of merchant bars have been going to the
same traders.
Our products are mainly used in
construction. Also, we supply steel, like
channels used in airports construction in the
UAE, and also angles for the transmission
line towers (TLT) for electric power
distribution. Our partners in the GCC region
supply Al Jazeera’s steel products to several
projects for infrastructure development.
Despite the strong domestic and regional market focus, Al Jazeera Steel is
developing its international sales strategy, especially in such promising markets
as the USA and the EU. Does the company plan to expand the geography of sales?
Unfortunately, taking into account the
margins of merchant bar products and a
significant transportation cost to the USA, it
is not really feasible to sell there. We have
been selling a reasonable amount of our
pipes (nearly 20‑25% of our sales) to the
USA. But for merchant bar product it is not
possible. We are always looking for new
opportunities, but specially in this context we
have to be content in selling to the MENA
region with our strength mainly in GCC
countries.
Currently, it is difficult for EAF-steel producers and re-rollers to compete with
integrated steel mills who can take an advantage of lower production cost due
to the iron ore price slump. Does Al Jazeera Steel have any plans for setting up
steelmaking and DRI-producing facilities in order to be more competitive?
We have no plans because gas availability
is not enough in Oman. More important is
that gas prices are quite high in comparison
Metal Expert
with other GCC countries. Based on these
reasons, there is no point in captive steel
making. The total steel making capacity
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 9
interview
has increased drastically in Oman. Jindal
Shadeed today has 2 million t of steel
making capacity, of which still about
600,000 t will have to be sold after it
completes the finished steel projects (rebar
and wire rod mill) by the end of 2015.
Sohar Steel doubled its capacity to 50,000 t
per month and will consume it in their own
rebar mills. Also, Modern Steel is the oldest
producer with around 200,000 t capacity.
So, in Oman we will have 800,000 t of billets
from local suppliers in 2016.
What does Al Jazeera Steel expect for 2015 regarding long steel market? What
role will the company play in the market during this period?
Initial 3 months were quite difficult basically
because prices dropped drastically and
influx of the material from Turkey and
China was significantly high. However, the
situation changed. Customers are gradually
becoming sceptical in buying this chromium
added steel from China. Another point is
that prices nearly bottomed, and our buyers
are now keen to build up stocks which they
resisted in Q1 as they were not sure about
how low the price would go.
An important issue is infrastructure
development. Today, all the announced
projects are underway, and the money is
spent on them. But if the oil price remains at
the current level ($60/bbl), it would definitely
be a problem in GCC. The government will
reduce infrastructure expenditures, take
away the subsidies, which will affect the
people in GCC and also the requirement of
steel.
About Al Jazeera Steel:
Al Jazeera is the only steel tube and structural products manufacturer in the Middle East. The company has a production
facility in Sohar (Oman), which offers ERW tubular products in both black and galvanized class with plain end and threaded
and coupled ends, conforming to different international standards.
Al Jazeera diversified its product range by commissioning in 2009 a new production unit at the merchant bar mill capable of
producing hot rolled products like angles, channels, squares, flats
Metal Expert
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 10
interview
Galloo:
Challenge of today
to find tonnage
with right margins
About Galloo
Nowadays, the group has around 55 scrap
yards, of which 2 are in the Netherlands
and the rest are in Belgium and France.
These yards, each with its own yard
manager, are concentrated in clusters,
of which one is a cluster manager.
There are about 8 clusters. These cluster
managers are reporting directly to the
Galloo management. The main yard and
office is in Menen/Halluin (on the border
of Belgium and France), where there is
centralized post shredded treatment with
all necessary equipment, fluff treatment,
fines treatment, plastic separation, WEEE
treatment. Another important yard is the
one in Gent, where bulk vessels are loaded
with steel scrap for export and where
there is also ship dismantling (recently we
received a European recognition).
Metal Expert
The BIR World Recycling Convention & Exhibition, held in the UAE on
May 17‑20, covered numerous issues relevant for the scrap recycling
industry. Participants also discussed the latest trends and the market
prospects.
During the event, Metal Expert met Nico Rosseel, the Chief Commercial
Officer of Galloo, who shared his thoughts on developments in the
steel scrap segment, their causes and consequences, and spoke about
the current situation in the European market.
Galloo entered the market over 75 years ago and is currently among
the largest players in the global ferrous scrap market. Could you
please tell a little about the company structure and operation?
Galloo is a family business, created
by Joseph Galloo in 1939. His sonin-law — Antoine Vandeputte —
continued the business and developed
the company. Galloo is focused on
technical skills and know-how of
separation techniques together with
commercial care of suppliers and
customers, and later on takeovers
of suppliers to guarantee the supply
for our machines: shredders, shears,
presses and heavy media separation
machines.
In 1999, we created a direction
committee, in which Antoine Vande­
putte’s 2 sons became directors. Today
there is a board, in which
Mr. Vandeputte is still active, but on
a daily basis it is our committee of
directors with the third generation of the
family who is running the business.
Last year we sold around 1,750,000 t
of recyclable materials, of which
850,000 t was steel scrap for export,
200,000 t was non-ferrous, 50,000 t
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 11
interview
were plastics and remaining 650,000 t was
steel scrap for the local market.
As you see, our company is driven by the
team of strong people to be advanced in
what we try to do. Recently somebody
said: the best way to predict the future is to
create the future himself. By always trying
new technics of recycling and by trying to
recycle more and more out of the waste
scrap you finally create your own future.
What is your opinion on the current situation in the global scrap recycling
industry? What problems and challenges are scrap collectors facing now?
At the moment, scrap recycling companies
are trying to find the tonnage they need to
cover their overall cost structure. This is the
challenge of today — to find the tonnage you
„„ scrap recycling companies
invested a lot of money in machinery
need with right margins (which are squeezed)
in order to make some profit in the end.
A lot of scrap recycling companies invested a
lot of money in machinery with more capacity
than before; and there is today simply not
enough scrap around to fill this extra capacity.
With machinery I mean bigger shredders,
bigger shears, bigger presses.
One will have to adapt himself to the current
situation. Finally, the balance will come
back: if scrap is not coming, than capacity
will come down.
Have you noticed anything special
about the European ferrous scrap
market performance in 2015? What
can you say on the behaviour of key
regional buyers?
The available quantity of scrap, which came
in the scrap yards in the first 3 months of
2015, was very very low, probably one of
the lowest for many years. This pushed
regional scrap buyers to work without
margin to attract scrap anyway.
What is your priority: shipments to
European consumers or exports?
Is the current euro exchange rate
beneficial for EU scrap collectors in
the global market?
Our priority are shipments to end
customers and to avoid middle men
Metal Expert
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 12
interview
(traders). We do not mind if these are
European consumers or non-European
consumers. Our price ex-works is the most
important, this should be at a competitive
level for the right quality. Indeed, the
weaker euro is making it for the EU scrap
collectors easier to compete on the export
market with US scrap collectors.
In 2014, Turkey, one of the largest scrap consumers, cut imports by 3% y-o-y,
whereas other MENA countries ramped up their purchases by 35%. Do you
consider this region an attractive outlet?
Indeed, the MENA area (other than Turkey)
is becoming an increasingly important
and attractive outlet. It is important for a
scrap exporter to be able to sell to many
consumers, besides those in Turkey.
I also believe there will be a need to invest a
lot in this area in future. If we want to solve
the problem of poverty in the north of Africa,
the only way is to create jobs and wealth for
these people in their countries. This is what
China has been doing during the last
20 years for its own people, and, we can
say, with a big success.
EAF steel has become much less competitive as iron ore and scrap quotes are
still far from parity. As a result, we saw the market collapse in February. Do you
think anything like that is possible in the near future?
„„ The MENA area is becoming
an increasingly important
and attractive outlet
I see steel scrap price going up to more
than $300/t CFR Turkey and $300/t
delivered European steel mills for good
qualities in the near future. The recent
increase in iron ore prices is a start. But the
main reason is the higher demand for steel
scrap because of a better economic climate,
mainly in the automobile sector. Blast
furnaces, which make automobile plate, can
afford to pay a better price for good scrap
if scrap is less available, as this is only a
small percentage of their feed material.
Today scrap is not a lot available. There is
not much scrap in scrap yards, and what is
there has a high buying price. So availability
is low and demand is better. If today iron ore
price goes down again, it will not have a big
impact on the scrap price, as this is already
calculated in the today’s price of scrap.
A potential to go up is higher than to go
down. Of course, we need to follow the
currency of the euro. If euro gets back
stronger, this might have an impact and
drive scrap price in euro back down.
Finally, can you share your forecast for H2 2015 with us?
I am unable to forecast longer than 1 or
2 months, and still this is sometimes a
gamble. But if demand from the industry
grows, the availability of scrap will be
getting better. And more volume is what
Metal Expert
we need to cover our cost and make
some profit. The USA has had good
activity during the last years; and Europe
is mostly coming a step behind. Overall,
I am positive for H2 2015.
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 13
interview
KWTSteel:
MENA rolling mills
have no choice
rather than
to import semis
GCC is among the world’s fastest
developing regions. Owing to a wide
variety of the projects underway,
finished steel demand has rallied there.
Primarily, this is the case for the UAE,
Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Kuwait also
plays an important role and has a vast
potential.
During the BIR World Recycling
Convention & Exhibition held in the UAE
on May 17-20, Metal Expert discussed
the latest trends in the finished steel,
semis and raw material markets in the
GCC region in general, and in Kuwait
specifically, with Mr. Siddig Elhassan,
Commercial Manager at KWTSteel. Metal
Expert also inquired about the current
state of affairs in the company and its
plans for the coming years.
Metal Expert
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 14
interview
KWTSteel is the leading long steel producer in Kuwait. Please, tell us about your
company and its cooperation with Austria’s voestalpine.
„„ Kuwait needs to catch up with
neighbouring countries
The project idea appeared in 1996 and after
two years we started its implementation. We
chose technologies provided by Austrian
voestalpine. Our plants located in the
Shuaiba industrial area started production
in 2001.
Initially, the mill capacity was 500,000 tpy
of rebar. Later we upgraded the mill to reach
the current level of 750,000 tpy.
In 2012, we acquired our second Rolling Mill
also located in the Shuaiba industrial area.
We revamped the mill and the producing
capacity is 450,000 tpy and as such we
became the sole steel manufacturer in Kuwait.
Square billet demand increased in the
Middle East in recent years. What, in
your opinion, is the outlook for square
billet?
The Middle East, predominantly GCC, is
one of the fastest growing markets, which
combines quite rich countries with high
development potential as Saudi Arabia,
Qatar, UAE etc. But Kuwait is far behind
them in expansion of infrastructure projects
and construction activity.
However, there were some changes in the
country. Nowadays, the Kuwaiti government
focuses on infrastructure development,
enabling steel industry to grow at the same
pace. We believe this trend will continue
through the next 10-15 years.
The rise in steel consumption determines
demand for square billets. It comes because
there are many rolling mills in the MENA
region and most of them do not have their
own steelmaking facilities. They have no
Metal Expert
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 15
interview
choice other than to import semis. This
situation will remain for at least 3-5 years.
Even the biggest integrated producers, such
as SABIC, Qatar Steel or Emirates Steel,
import billets from time to time, depending
on the market situation (iron ore, scrap and
billet prices).
In line with billet demand improvement,
scrap needs in the Middle East also
„„ We are pushing to have 100%
market share
Metal Expert
increase as it is better economically to use
this raw material in production. The only
limiting factor is the price.
The main advantage of scrap use is the
material quality. When you melt scrap, you
use less fluxes, less refractory, while with
iron ore the life of refractory is shorter and
you use more energy to melt. On top of that,
you get better yield from scrap than DRI/
HBI. Many of integrated steel companies
realized that, and, to remain competitive,
they started to use more scrap. Initially, their
furnaces were designed to use maximum
5-7% of scrap, now they stretched these
volumes to around 15-20%.
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 16
interview
What do you think about competition in Kuwait’s long steel segment?
Since we are the sole producer in Kuwait
we have no domestic competitors, but
our capacity is not enough to fully feed
the market needs. The main threat for
our business is import. We face small
volumes imported from the neighbouring
countries such as the UAE and Qatar.
These countries were traditional suppliers
to Kuwait long before we started our
production. The significant volumes of
longs were coming from Turkey, as Turkish
suppliers were well-known in our market.
But everything has changed since that time.
During some period of time we imported
billets and worked as a re-roller, facing
tough pressure. Since we launched our
melt shop (1,200,000 tpy) and rolling mills
(1,200,000 tpy with required plant) we
became more competitive, enjoying around
85-90% market share. But we are pushing
to have 100% after all investment we plan
to make.
Please, share you opinion regarding
export potential of KWTSteel.
At the moment, we do not sell abroad due
to government restrictions. Furthermore,
even if there is an opportunity for us to
export, we do not need it as the local
market is very promising and our priority is
to cover the local market.
But in future it can be interesting in view
of our expansion plans and a steady
growth of steel consumption in MENA.
For example, Qatar may be an interesting
destination on the back of the World Cup
projects and common construction activity.
Saudi Arabia also has a good potential
amid population growth and a big amount
of projects to be underway.
In early 2015, Kuwait approved a
five-year development plan worth
$116 billion in investment, mostly in
construction and infrastructure. How
will steel demand change due to this?
Kuwait was one of the most developed
countries in the region before 1989-1990,
but lost this position after the war with Iraq.
Metal Expert
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 17
interview
Today, the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are
ahead of our country.
Kuwait needs to catch up with the neighbouring countries. There are many projects
in the pipeline. Some of them have already
seen the light and spurred the steel demand. We are quiet positive and optimistic
in our forecasts, seeing further steel consumption improvement in the country.
Does the fall in the oil price has an impact on the Kuwait economy in general
and KWTSteel in particular?
This is an interesting question. Let me
explain. Oil is the main source of income
in Kuwait and other GCC countries.
Price downturn definitely influences the
government spending. But huge amount
of projects are underway and their budget
has been already approved. So, if oil
prices fall for the next 5 years, it will not
be an issue for the projects taking place
today. We do not expect a standstill
and have serious doubts about putting
announced projects on hold. Anyway,
everything depends on how long the
current oil market trend will continue.
Do you have plans to build a DRI module?
Yes. As you know, Kuwait has resources of
natural gas, but they are not really explored.
So we are looking to the neighbouring
countries and in the MENA region, where
we can allocate our new production
facilities. We have an idea to build
a 1.6 million tpy DRI plant and a 1.4 million
tpy melt shop.
As soon as we find the place we will start
these projects. We have many options
on the table and we are trying to find
the best. We will start with semis and
after that maybe expand our presence in
sections and rebar.
At the moment, we have rolling mills in
Kuwait and own steelmaking facility. But
our melt shop is not enough to fulfil current
longs production capacity and we are forced
to buy billets to cover the gap. Our priority
is to have a new DRI plant and
a melt shop. Now we are upon the look
for an appropriate place.
At the end of our interview we would like to ask you about your expectations
for the rest of the year.
TThe second half will be almost the same.
Nothing will change in 2015. There will be
some price fluctuation in raw material and
finished steel segments. Scrap prices will
balance out in 2015-2016 as expected.
Metal Expert
Iron ore quotes will go down again due to
the global oversupply. Demand in China
will stabilize a little bit as the Chinese
government is changing their philosophy
from investments to consuming system.
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 18
event
MENA Billet Import Conference:
In right place
at right time
Transformations recently observed
in the global iron ore and steel
scrap segments have shifted
priorities of many mills from
own production of semi-finished
products, billet in particular, to
purchases from the free market.
Higher interest in billet has
promoted cooperation between
sellers and buyers, especially in such
fast-developing long steel market
as the Middle East and North Africa.
All the interested parties gathered
at the MENA Billet Import one-day
conference held by Metal Expert in
Dubai, the UAE, at the end of May.
This event took place for the first time, but
the hot topic made it possible to gather
representatives of more than 40 companies,
including big producers such as Turkey’s
Icdas, UAE’s Emirates Steel Industries,
Qatar Steel, Oman’s Jindal Shadeed Iron
& Steel, Saudi Arabia’s Rajhi Steel, Sulb
National Company and many others on
one platform. According to participants, the
main advantage of the MENA Billet Import
Conference was its club-like character,
when right people gathered in the right
place at the right time.
Metal Expert
The event included three topical sessions
and a round table.
The first session was opened by
a representative of Austria’s F.J.
Elsner Trading, whose report covered
developments in HBI and scrap markets
in the world and in the Middle East in
particular. Further speeches also dealt
with estimations of the current situation in
the raw materials segments and prospects
of growth of demand for steel scrap
and metallics in the region. Participants
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 19
event
„„ Market players’ outlook:
Emirates Steel Industries (UAE)
With the Middle East focusing on HBI consumption, high expenses for pellets and
lower energy subsidies amid falling oil prices force steelmakers to look for alternative
raw materials, including scrap for EAF production. But despite the expected increase
in regional scrap consumption, further semis imports stay possible. Consumers
from the Middle East on the whole and the UAE in particular mostly source CIS and
Chinese feedstock as it is cheaper than local material. That is why representatives of
the steel sector would certainly not plan the capacity expansion projects announced
if they knew about such a severe competition before.
Egyptian Iron & Steel (Egypt)
Today, it is not urgent to become self-sufficient in semis and refrain from billet imports.
The whole situation depends on market conditions, and if it is more profitable to
purchase billet, everyone will seek to be the first to do it.
Al-Yamamah Steel (Saudi Arabia)
Despite sourcing HBI now, we may switch to scrap consumption as soon as in end2015 if oil prices continue falling and consequently cause cancellation or reduction
of the effective energy subsidies. This, in turn, will become the key factor driving up
prices for gas, used in HBI production, which will result in higher costs. Apart from us,
the whole sector suffers from the problem. Thus, the situation forces local producers
to use square billet as an alternative raw material. Middle Eastern buyers import large
tonnages of the semis, which are unlikely to decrease considering rising demand for
long products from large-scale construction and infrastructure projects.
SABIC (Saudi Arabia)
Square billet will remain popular in the Middle East even though many mills,
including those in Saudi Arabia, are operating at reduced capacity on suspension
of a number of construction and infrastructure projects amid poor conditions in the
global oil market.
agreed that consumption of these types
of raw materials will rise as production
capacity scales up in line with the global
trend. According to forecasts made by
the World Steel Association (WSA), scrap
demand will increase by 110 million t
(to 695 million t) by 2019, driven by higher
consumption in China, Turkey and the
ASEAN countries, whereas HBI demand
will go up by 35 million t (to 110 million t)
owing to India, the Middle East and North
Africa.
The second session was devoted to
prospects of the regional billet market,
drawing the highest interest among
participants of the conference as they were
able to get answers from key suppliers
of the material from the CIS and Iran. In
particular, a representative of Metinvest
International S.A. confirmed that the Middle
East and North Africa remained the most
important outlets for CIS exporters, with
sales to these regions accounting for some
65% of the total shipment volume. He
also added that Turkey and Saudi Arabia
were the main drivers for shipments this
year, thereby contributing to optimization
of production costs of finished goods.
Delegates also expressed high interest
in a report made by a representative of
Iran’s Khouzestan Steel Company, which
got more important in the light of removal
of international sanctions, making Iranian
products a potential alternative for Chinese
material. Another popular presentation was
made by commercial director of Spain’s
Celsa Group, who stressed on growing
pressure from China in the billet segment,
which caused a 30% year-to-date drop
in supplies from Europe to the regions
(primarily to North Africa).
The third block of the conference mostly
included issues related to production costs
Metal Expert
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 20
event
„„ Speakers and topics:
Kim Marti
International Commercial
Director
Celsa Group
Europe: Long product market evolution and exports
to MENA region
Alain Eeckman
Senior Trader Raw Materials
F.J. Elsner Trading GmbH
HBI/DRI market development and comparisons to
scrap
Ved Prakash
Commercial Director
Gemini Corporation N.V.
International Scrap market - often beating the
expectation and fundamentals. Flow of scrap trade
market and future market outlook
To what level will the long product consumption in
Sameer Dabbas
MENA countries grow under the conditions of low oil
CEO
Hadeed Emirates Contracting prices?
Mehran Abbas Zadeh
Strategic Planning Manager
Khouzestan Steel
Company
Export of Billet from Iran to MENA market
Andrey Pupchenko
Deputy Managing Director
Metal Expert
Pricing in long product and square billet market of
MENA region. Competitiveness of the main suppliers
Andriy Syedykh
Ph.D., Senior analyst
Metal Expert
Global Markets After the Chinese Miracle: Stagnation
or Shift to New Leaders?
Tetiana Spanchak
Deputy Head of Research
Metal Expert
MENA: long products demand prospects
Viktor Vukusic
Billet Export from CIS to MENA region
General Manager
Metinvest International SA
Gulf Branch
Metal Expert
and consumption of finished
products. The problem of
production costs in the context
of stiffening rivalry drew keen
interest, confirming that mills
will continue replacing own
billet production with purchased
material to stay competitive.
The trend is only gathering
pace and will continue for
several years.
The final chord of the
conference was given by the
round table moderated by
representatives of Oman’s Al
Jazeera Steel, Spain’s Celsa
Group and China’s Hangzhou
CIEC International. The
discussion panel was dedicated
to influence of the political and
military situation in several
countries of the region (Yemen,
Iraq, Syria) on the markets
for finished and semi-finished
products as well as a likelihood
of revisions of capacity
expansion plans in view of the
unfavourable situation in the oil
market. One of the key topics
of the discussion were export
prospects of Iran after removal
of sanctions in the context of
competition with Chinese and
CIS suppliers as well as its
influence on the Turkish market.
Chinese pressure on local and
export pricing in the context of
imbalance between scrap and
iron ore prices also drew high
interest, as usual.
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 21
facts & figures
BILLET IMPORT RATIO
MENA'S BILLET IMPORT
million t
14
100%
90%
12
80%
10
70%
8
60%
6
40%
50%
30%
4
20%
2
10%
0
0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2006
2007
2008
2009
regional billet
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
non-regional billet
BILLET IMPORT
FROM OUTSIDE MENA
MENA’S INTAREGIONAL
BILLET IMPORT
million t
million t
3.5
12
3.0
10
2.5
8
2.0
6
1.5
4
1.0
2
0.5
0
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
TURKEY BILLET IMPORT STRUCTURE
Q1-Q3 2014
Q1-Q3 2015f
1%
4%
9%
28%
68%
90%
Metal Expert
CIS
China
Others
Square CIS
Billet inChina
Focus |Others
August 2015 | 22
market outlook
Chinese billet
invades Turkey
Prices for CIS billet in Turkey have decreased to $335-340/t CFR in the third
week of July, by $30/t down from the second half of June. Moreover, Chinese
billet is even cheaper now – $310/t CFR.
Increasing imports of Chinese semis is
the key factor determining the situation
in the Turkish billet market. The segment’s
pricing is based on Chinese quotes.
Aggressive policy of China defined the
final outcome of the stand-off between
Turkish mini-mills and scrap suppliers
to Turkey, with the latter being forced
to slash offers at last. As a result, the
market offered quite attractive alternative
to traditional steel melting using scrap, so
local mills have partly become re-rollers.
According to Metal Expert’s estimate,
about 55% of June rebar in Turkey was
made from imported billet instead of using
steelmakers’ own EAFs.
„„ Turkish square billet import structure
1800
1600
1400
'000 t
1200
1000
China
800
Others
600
CIS
400
200
0
Q2 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15*
Q3 15*
*- Metal Expert's estimate
Metal Expert
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 23
market outlook
„„ Rebar production costs in Turkey in July 2015
420
410
400
Turkey rebar price, FOB
402
395
$/t
390
380
370
365
360
350
340
330
from USA scrap
(at $229/t)
from CIS billet
(at $338/t)
Square billet has become a complete
alternative to scrap. The segment’s
capacity (in terms of semis imports) has
showed almost 1.5-fold upturn over the
past three quarters. According to Metal
Expert’s estimate, Turkey will import almost
1.65 million t of billet in Q3 2015, against
1.343 million t in Q2 and 1.17 million t in Q1.
In Q1-Q2 the capacity of the billet market
increased mostly thanks to supplies from
the CIS, while in Q3 influx of cheap Chinese
semis will drive purchases from the CIS
down to traditional levels.
After scrap prices plunged, competition
between scrap and billet has tightened
in July. In June steel melting in EAFs
using scrap was economically irrational
(considering nominal prices, since no
actual raw materials purchases were
made). At the beginning of July production
costs for rebar made from CIS billet and
scrap were practically equal in Turkey,
Metal Expert
from Chinese billet
(at $310/t)
but falling billet prices made semis more
attractive later on. Nevertheless, re-rolling
of Chinese billet is the most profitable now,
which will continue to put some pressure
on pricing of both CIS billet exporters
and scrap suppliers given sluggish steel
product market sentiments.
Possibility for further decline in Chinese
offers is limited. Although Chinese
suppliers have been highly active lately in
light of large sales, they are no longer so
competitive as before. Excessive production
capacities observed over the past months in
tandem with further domestic consumption
slowdown in China have predetermined
oversupply of almost all steel products
and a plunge in both domestic and export
prices. Thus, Chinese producers have
practically zero margins in their domestic
longs market, while export margins for billet
have hit an all-time low of some $10/t, as
Metal Expert estimates.
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 24
market outlook
Excessive production will have two main
effects on Chinese companies in the
billet market: (1) output of steel and steel
products in China may plunge till late
summer, which in Q4 can lead to lower
quantities of billet available to Turkey at
cheap prices; (2) further softening of billet
offers from Chinese companies is limited.
The latter will predetermine a price bottom
in the Turkish billet market.
Unlike China, CIS suppliers stand firmer.
According to Metal Expert’s assessment,
in July margins at Russian and Ukrainian
integrated steelworks have been at some
$90/t. Only suppliers like Novorosmetall
and affiliated Abinsk Electric Steel Works
in Russia as well as Ukraine’s Elektrostal
(Kurakhovo) can face some problems
since they run EAFs and consume relative
expensive scrap.
Although CIS suppliers generally aim at
high margins rather than quantities, they
will be able at least to maintain positions in
Metal Expert
Turkey in the next few months. However, the
companies may reduce quotes more due to
substantial gap with Chinese offers.
A nuclear deal between Iran and the
world powers will help Iran to come
back to the global market. After Iran fully
resumes international settlements, local
companies will be among the first to feel
the changes getting broader options in the
export markets, Metal Expert estimates. At
present, only some state-owned companies
like Mobarakeh Steel and Khouzestan
Steel can do business abroad. As Iranian
banks re-join SWIFT international payment
system, positions of Iranian billet exporters
will improve. Turkey is expected to be in the
list of the main sales destinations.
Prices for Chinese billet are close
to the bottom already, according to Metal
Expert’s assessment. Further rollback
will be possible only if iron ore quotes
decrease. CIS billet tags are likely
to show just moderate decline.
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 25
global trends
Iron ore surplus
not to rise in 2015
Despite expectations, iron ore surplus will not increase too much this year as
shutdowns of small Australian, Canadian and many Chinese mines will offset
a major rise in supply from Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. Besides, even such
leaders as Vale will not increase sales significantly in view of price drops.
This year, Australian largest iron ore
producers, mostly Rio Tinto, will push up
the output by approximately 110 million t.
Despite delaying long-term programme for
raising capacities, BHP Billiton, the second
largest group in Australia, has kept its
production target unchanged for this year.
The biggest iron ore supplier in the world,
Brazil' Vale will increase sales this year not
so sharply as it was expected in the end of
last year. The producer earlier informed it
intended to ramp up the output at least by
13 million t in 2015. However, Vale's total
iron ore shipments went up only by
1.1 million t, according to Sinferbase.
It will be possible to partly offset higher
supply from large Australian companies due
to smaller producers leaving the market.
According to Metal Expert’s data, some
87 million t of the material will be withdrawn
from the market till the year’s end mostly
because of shutdowns of Chinese mines.
“This year we have a forecast that
85 million t will leave the market and further
80 million t are at risk,” Sam Walsh, Rio
Tinto’s CEO, said May 7. Among Australian
and Canadian assets, the stoppage of
production has been announced this year
by six companies, capable of producing
Metal Expert
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 26
global trends
27 million t in total. Small mines started
leaving the market back last year as iron ore
prices halved. In Q1 2015, such companies
as Cliffs Natural Resources had to stop
ore extraction because prices continued
declining even despite a slight seasonal
drop in supply.
Although general surplus in the raw
materials market will not increase too much
this year, prices are still not forecast to
firm up. In Q4, the market, to be left by the
majority of small producers by that time, will
see another rise in iron ore supply, mostly
Metal Expert
from Rio Tinto. To fulfil the 2015 target
of 350 million t, Rio Tinto should ship
at least 92 million tpq this year
(72.5 million t in Q1). It means that the
company will have to boost deliveries by
the year’s end. Besides, in September
exports of the material produced at Roy
Hill asset with a capacity of 50 million tpy
will be started by a new player in the iron
ore market – Hancock Prospecting. “Prices
went up for a while [in May-June]. However,
late this year we expect them to fix at $45/t
CFR,” a representative of a top-ten largest
steelmaker in China told Metal Expert.
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 27
news
Turkish mills delay import billet bookings amid
uncertainty in longs segment
345/t CFR, depending on region (September-August
shipment). Market players report thin inquiries.
Turkish mills continue to delay import billet bookings
despite a price increase, detected in separate scrap
contracts. Steelmakers refrain from semis purchases
due to unstable forecast regarding longs segment for
September. Meanwhile, Turkish re-rollers still tend to
cooperate with local billet sellers because of better
pricing.
Billet offers ex-China to Turkey showed a $10-15/t
increase over the week to $315-325/t CFR due to upward
movement in iron ore. Turkish mills lost interest in
purchases from China. “Considering that billet from China
will be delivered in late September – beginning of October,
Turkish mills are not eager to jump on the offers,” a major
Turkish trader told Metal Expert. In addition, rebar demand
in both local and export markets remains quite slow, which
makes the upward trend questionable.
CIS billet offers to Turkey remained unchanged over
the week amid slow buying activity, staying at $335-
„„ Turkey: square billet prices, $/t
At the same time, Turkish re-rollers continue to give
preference to domestic billets due to loyal suppliers’
policy. Steelmakers decided to keep prices largely
unchanged – $350-360/t EXW (without 18% VAT).
Around 20,000 t billets were sold this week at $355/t
EXW Iskenderun. Some Marmara mills attempted to
increase offers up to $360-365/t EXW, with no luck to
sell. The latest contract in this part of the country were
signed at $350/t EXW.
430
415
400
385
370
355
340
325
08.05
22.05
05.06
Local market, EXW, excl. VAT
Metal Expert
19.06
03.07
Import from CIS, CFR
17.07
31.07
Export, FOB
In general, market players find it difficult to forecast
future developments. Local and export demand for
rebar is unlike to strengthen much, thus defining the
trend in billet markets.
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 28
news
CIS square billet export market in balance
By end-July, the CIS square billet export market
stabilized – August billet has been sold at the same
price for several weeks already. Market players
believe the situation will not change much in the
near future.
The pressure from Chinese square billet suppliers
has eased – upward moves have suppressed
demand. Besides, most buyers are reluctant to book
the material to be delivered as late as in the second
half of September. Rising scrap quotes in Turkey are
playing into CIS exporters’ hands too, but still this is
not enough for square billet prices to rise. “Stability
is optimal for [CIS] suppliers now. The market is
not ready to accept much higher prices yet,” one
international trader said.
Deal prices for the CIS semis have stabilized at $315325/t FOB Azov-Black Sea in end-July, against last
week’s $320-325/t FOB Azov-Black Sea. The bottom
„„ Offer prices for CIS billet from
traders, $/t
Destination
Price, СFR
Price, FOB Black Sea
Turkey
335-340
320
Egypt
340*
320
Tunisia
350
320
* – deals
Metal Expert
end of the range corresponds to the level of contracts
for the Ukrainian material shipped from Mariupol,
“where quotes are lower in view of higher buyer risks,”
market players comment.
Most of the material is still sold to Egypt – CIS billet
suppliers are currently focused on this destination.
Turkish buyers are hardly interested in the CIS semis
now. “Turkey is not the best sales outlet now ... most
buyers there bid not higher than $310/t FOB [Black
Sea]. We will see no improvements until the longs
market recovers,” the source told Metal Expert.
„„ CIS: billet export prices,
$/t FOB Azov-Black Sea
380
370
360
350
340
330
320
08.05
22.05
05.06
19.06
03.07
17.07
31.07
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 29
news
Demand for Chinese square billet declines in SE Asia,
buyers insist on discounts
Demand for Chinese square billet has declined in
SE Asia late this month. Most re-rollers who booked
Chinese semis back in mid-July are currently backing
away from deals, waiting for prices to fall further.
Suppliers, however, have been unable to grant
discounts so far – iron ore prices have been stable this
week, while domestic square billet and longs quotes
have gained $7/t and $11-12/t respectively.
FOB quotes of 5 sp square billet have remained
unchanged at $290-293/t.
Philippine buyers are still uninterested in Chinese billet
in view of high inventories. 5 sp square billet is currently
offered at $293/t FOB ($320/t CFR), $5/t above last
week’s deals, while buyers are bidding no higher than
$285/t FOB ($315/t CFR).
Taiwanese buyers are also booking no Chinese billet,
fearing that its prices will keep rolling back. Presently,
Q235 material (similar to 3 sp) is available at $280-284/t
FOB ($304/t CFR), $10-16/t down week-on-week. Q275
semis (similar to 5 sp) is quoted at $290/t FOB ($310/t
CFR), and gr.60 V-added ones made to ASTM A615 –
at $305-307/t FOB ($325-327/t CFR). Local re-rollers
are bidding $10-15/t below though.
Vietnam keeps ramping up imports of Chinese billet
on lower competitiveness of own production
Since the start of this year, Vietnam has significantly
raised imports of steel products, partly due to
higher purchases of semis from China amid falling
competitiveness of Vietnamese steel.
In January-May 2015, Vietnam became the world’s third
largest importer of Chinese products, receiving
3.5 million t from abroad, according to Alacero. A big
rise was seen in square billet deliveries, which more
than doubled to 300,000 t in the first four months
of 2015, while the country has enough capacities
to produce own billet (some 5 million t). This was due
to uncompetitive steel products made of own billet due
to higher cost as compared to consumption of Chinese
material. “Quotes of iron ore used by Chinese producers
as the main feedstock fall, while prices for scrap we
consume do not go that way. As a result, it is getting
unprofitable to produce billet in Vietnam,” a Vietnamese
producer commented to Metal Expert.
Metal Expert
Competitiveness of local steel production was also
depressed by the government’s recent interference in
the import scrap segment. In particular, scrap importers
are obliged to deposit 10-20% of the sum depending on
purchased volumes. Although the government aimed
to reduce inflow of low-quality material to the country,
the payment has become an additional pressure on
steelmakers, who already operate at 50% capacity,
according to the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA). “Many
Vietnamese steel mills are on the verge of bankruptcy, as
scrap expenses for making their own steel billet are much
higher compared to import material,” Director of Hoa Phat
Steel responded to local agency Vietnam News.
In these circumstances, Vietnamese billet producers
have to ask the government to limit cheap imports. Still,
most market participants doubt that restrictive measures
against imports of square billet will be imposed,
considering rising demand for longs in the country.
Square Billet in Focus | August 2015 | 30
Metal Expert
Square Billet in Focus
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