BC2669
Auckland Civil Defence and
Emergency Management
Hazards quick reference guide
THE RES
T
U
A
BIOLOGICAL
HAZARDS
POSE A MAJOR RISK TO THE
AUCKLAND ECONOMY
EW ZEALAN
D
POPULATION
FN
LAND
K
C
O
NZ’S
50
VOLCANOES
IN THE AUCKLAND REGION
MUCH OF AUCKLAND IS BUILT ON A POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE VOLCANIC FIELD
A DAMAGING TORNADO
HITS AUCKLAND EVERY
2–3
YEARS
OF THE WORLD’S
EARTHQUAKES
OCCUR ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE
600
URBAN FIRES
are reported in our region
each year, potentially requiring
Civil Defence Emergency
Management
2
Contents
Introduction•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••4
Purpose and vision ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 5
Auckland’s risk profile • ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 5
Auckland region overview•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 6
Natural hazards ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••8
Volcanic eruption: Auckland volcanic field or distant source ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 9
Cyclone ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 11
Flood; river/rainfall or storm surge••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 13
Land Instability, Coastal Cliff Erosion or Landslide •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 15
Earthquake ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 17
Tsunami •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 20
Drought • ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 22
Wildfire ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 24
Tornado••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 25
Note: Natural hazards are ordered according to risk rating within Auckland CDEM Group Plan 2011-2016
Man-made hazards •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 28
Infrastructure failure •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 29
Public health crisis ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 36
Biological hazards •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 38
Crash: aircraft ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 40
Hazardous substances spill •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 42
Criminal acts: civil unrest, vandalism or terrorism••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 44
Dam failure •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 46
Marine incidents•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 48
Space hazards ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 50
Note: Man-made hazards are ordered according to risk rating within Auckland CDEM Group Plan 2011-2016
Find out more:
http://www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/EN/environmentwaste/naturalhazardsemergencies/hazards/Pages/home.aspx
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Introduction
4
R
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Y
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The main purpose of this document is to raise
awareness and improve the understanding of hazards,
natural and man-made, in the Auckland region.
O
Purpose:
RE C
A resilient Auckland will be able to quickly
adapt and continue to function at the
highest possible level.
RE A
SS RESPO
NE
DI
A resilient Auckland
ION
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C
E
NS
Vision
Auckland’s risk profile:
overview
As per the Auckland CDEM Group Plan 2011-2016
Social environment:
• Rapidly growing population; 1.42 million people or 33% of New Zealand’s
total population
• Largest urban and economic centre in New Zealand
• Young population: 507,459 people or more than 35 per cent of Auckland’s population is
under 25 years old
• Ethnically diverse population poorly prepared for an emergency
Built environment
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In 2013, Auckland had 432,044 occupied private dwellings
95 per cent of Auckland fuel is supplied from Marsden Point via a single pipeline
Auckland is an isthmus, limiting north/south corridor transport routes
Two main transport terminals: Ports of Auckland and Auckland Airport
Economic environment
• Auckland contributes approximately 38.6 per cent of the national
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
• In February 2013 there were 163,580 businesses in the Auckland region
Natural environment
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Auckland covers 2 per cent of New Zealand’s total land mass
Auckland covers 16,141km2 of both land and sea
Built on a volcanic field with soft terrestrial and marine sediments
Unpredictable weather which changes rapidly
3,000km of coastline
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Auckland region
overview
Geography and Geology
Auckland covers approximately 16,141km2 of both land and sea and is approximately
2 per cent of New Zealand’s total land mass. Auckland is built on an isthmus which
creates a congestion point for utilities and transport networks, and also makes the ability
to forecast severe weather challenging.
Auckland region lies on the Australian tectonic plate, 300-500km northwest of the
active plate boundary of the Australian and Pacific plates. Auckland’s position means
it occupies one of the lowest seismic activity areas in New Zealand; however it is built
on top of the Auckland volcanic field covering 100km2 of the urban area. Periods of
volcanism and other environmental processes formed some of the landforms visible
in Auckland today. The landscape mainly consists of rolling hill country formed upon
weathered sedimentary rock which is loose clay, siltstone and soft sandstones that is
often susceptible to erosion and slope failure.
Weather and climate
Auckland region’s climate is influenced by its topography and location between the
Pacific Ocean and the Tasman Sea (Salinger, 1996[12]; Fowler, 1999 [13]). The region has
a subtropical climate dominated by irregular atmospheric features (sometimes severe)
such as mid-latitude lows and ex-tropical cyclones, bringing with them strong winds
and intense rainfall. Rainfall averages annually between 1200mm and 2200mm, and is
largely controlled by topography as higher volumes occur near the highest elevations in
the Hunua’s and Waitakere Ranges. Low permeability soils and urbanised catchments are
linked to high run-off, resulting in quick and high flood peaks in river catchments. Coastal areas
Auckland has approximately 3,000km of coastline. The coast is a desirable location for
development but exposes communities to a wide range of hazards including storm surge,
coastal instability, high winds and tsunami.
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Figure 1. Landforms in the Auckland region
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Natural Hazards
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Volcanic eruption:
Auckland volcanic field
or distant source
Hazard characteristics
Auckland is built directly on the Auckland volcanic field (AVF), although the volcanoes
are small and their eruptions infrequent, the risk associated with future activity is
significant compared to other natural hazards. The AVF covers an area of 360km2 and
contains at least 50 volcanoes. The earliest volcanic activity dates back 250,000 years
and the youngest eruption, forming Rangitoto Island, occurred around 600 years ago. It
is expected that future eruptions are more likely to occur in a new, unknown location
(recent studies have shown that Rangitoto may have erupted several times and further
research is needed to understand this volcano). Auckland is also at risk from ash fall from
eruptions at several large and frequently active volcanoes in the central North Island and
Taranaki. In contrast to the AVF, eruptions from New Zealand stratovolcanoes (steep
sides and distinguishing cone shape with several vents that erupt lava) such as Mount
Ruapehu and Mount Taranaki/Egmont occur, on average, every 50 to 300 years. Over the
past 80,000 years, eruptions from distant volcanoes have deposited at least 82 different
ash layers, greater than 0.5m thick, in Auckland.
Location, frequency and magnitude
Past eruptions in the AVF have sometimes started with a large explosion because of either
ground or sea water coming in contact with rising magma. An eruption of this type is
more likely to occur in Auckland due to the close proximity of many water sources. These
eruptions can form large craters, which can subsequently fill with water such as Lake
Pupuke, Orakei Basin and Onepoto Reserve. Continued eruptions often create volcanic or
scoria cones such as Mt Wellington, Mount Eden, Browns Island and Three Kings. As the
volcano continues to erupt it may produce extensive lava flows. Many have been mapped
within the city, extending up to 10km from the source. Likely hazards and effects of the
next Auckland eruption depend on what type of eruption occurs and for how long. When
and where future eruptions will occur is unknown. Based on the number and frequency
of past eruptions it is estimated there is about a one in 1000 (0.001 per cent) chance an
eruption could occur in any one year. This means that there is an 8 per cent probability
(one in 12.5 chance) an eruption will occur in the AVF field over any 80 year period.
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Key vulnerabilities and potential impacts
One of the key vulnerabilities associated with a future AVF eruption is the expected short
warning period (days to weeks). However, the first sign of unrest will likely be detected by
a series of earthquakes occurring in the same location as the magma travels through the
upper mantle and crust. The earthquakes will increase in magnitude and frequency leading
up to the eruption, and several hundred may be felt in the hours before an eruption begins.
Whether it is volcanic ash from a distant eruption or fire-fountaining from a local eruption,
the impacts can be severe. Some of the impacts from a volcanic eruption that can occur
include:
• eye and lung irritation increasing health risks
• high economic costs due to clean-up, damage to infrastructure, temporary business
closures and adverse effects on tourism
• economic losses due to damage of horticultural and agricultural industries
• disrupted electricity supply with power outages if the ash is wet
• widespread disruption to transport infrastructure including the closure of roads and
airport facilities
• disruption of fresh and waste water systems
• disrupted communication systems due to interference, overloading or direct damage.
Figure 2. Simulation volcanic eruption in Auckland; Exercise Ruaumoko
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Tropical cyclones
Hazard characteristics
Tropical cyclones are severe low pressure systems that form in the tropics. Tropical and
ex-tropical cyclones have three main meteorological hazards: heavy rainfall, high winds,
and storm surge. Ex-tropical cyclones are often the cause of Auckland’s most extreme
weather, leading to extensive flooding and wind damage. In addition, particularly during
high tides, flooding of low-lying coastal areas is possible because of storm surges and
waves. The severity of a tropical cyclone is described in term of categories ranging from
one to five in relation to zone of maximum winds (one being gusts of less than 125km/h
and five being gusts of more than 280km/h).
Location, frequency and magnitude
In any one season, approximately two to 16 tropical cyclones can form in the Southwest
Pacific per year. During La Nina events (warmer temperatures), atmospheric and oceanic
conditions are more favourable for tropical cyclone formation. In the last 20 years the
worst storms affecting the Auckland region have been: Cyclone Fergus in December
1996; Cyclone Drena in January 1997 and ex-tropical Cyclone Wilma in January 2011.
The average risk over a cyclone season for northern New Zealand is approximately 80%
e.g. one storm comes within 500km of New Zealand coast in four years out of five. Figure 3. World cyclone tracks 1851 – 2006 NASA
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Key vulnerabilities and potential impacts
Ex-tropical cyclones can generally be forecast quite reliably, usually allowing for a
number of days warning before they reach northern New Zealand.
Damage to property and infrastructure will vary depending upon factors such as:
• distance from zone of maximum winds
• exposure of location
• building standards
• vegetation type
• resultant flooding.
General impacts on property and people in Auckland include:
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uprooted trees damaging buildings and utility infrastructure such as power lines
boats blown onto shorelines
disruption to air travel
land movement in the form of landslides, rockfalls and coastal erosion
flood inundation of properties in floodplains and low-lying coastal areas
flying objects that can become flying missiles causing injury and extensive damage
to property.
Figure 4. Cyclone satellite image
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Flooding
Hazard characteristics
Flooding is the most common natural hazard in Auckland in terms of frequency
and losses occuring over a short period and affecting a relatively localised area. The
occurrence of flooding is dependent on several factors including rainfall intensity and
duration, soil moisture conditions, local river levels and the physical characteristics of
catchments (e.g. soil type, slope and vegetation cover) among other local factors. Storm
surge events occur in the Auckland harbours where king tides occur, there is a strong
north-easterly wind, and a reduction in the atmospheric pressure (usually associated
with a low pressure system). These factors all affect extreme sea levels during kind tides.
Areas prone to flooding may include low-lying flood plains with streams or rivers, valley
floors of steep river catchments susceptible to intense rainfall and low-lying areas near
sea-level and the coast.
Figure 5. Synoptic map from January 2011 flooding event
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Location, frequency and magnitude
Auckland’s heaviest localised rainfalls occur during severe thunderstorms. Auckland is
also susceptible to heavy rainfall from warm moist north or north-easterly wind flows,
depressions from the north or northwest and from slow moving anticyclones to the east.
These flows produce about 60 per cent of rainfall totals in any one year. In contrast, southwesterly flow produces showery weather, especially in the winter. Stormy westerlies also
produce rainfall and sometimes tornadoes. Normal annual rainfall in the Auckland area
ranges from just less than 1000mm to about 2000mm. Flood magnitude is usually defined
in terms of the average recurrence interval (ARI) or the annual exceedance probability
(AEP). The ARI is the average period of time between floods of similar magnitude whereas
the AEP is the probability of a specific flood occurring during a specific time period.
In January 2011, two distinctive storms passed over the North Island causing flooding
and storm surge to varying degrees of damage and disruption within six days of each
other. During this time near record-breaking rainfall for the month fell in the north
east of Auckland, reaching over four times the January average in some parts. Several
properties and other forms of critical infrastructure suffered damage, with the total cost
for January 2011 exceeding $20 million for the region.
Key vulnerabilities and potential impacts
As new technology becomes available, the predictability of heavy rainfall and real-time
monitoring of heavy rainfall events helps to reduce the risk of the hazard to people and
property. In summary, flooding is Auckland’s most frequently occurring hazard and its
effects include:
• flooding of residential homes and consequent evacuation of residents
• injury or death by drowning
• roads becoming impassable
• extensive damage to land and buildings from sediment deposition
• contamination of water supply
• medium term health effects e.g. gastrointestinal illnesses, respiratory illness,
dermatitis etc.
Figure 6. January 2011 floods – Portland Rd, Remuera
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Land Instability, Coastal
Cliff Erosion and Landslide
Hazard characteristics
Land shape (geomorphology) and composition (geology) are the main factors that
contribute to land instability. In Auckland, landslides and soil erosion often occur in
soft, weak soils that have been weathered over many thousands of years. The extensive
urbanisation of Auckland, a region with 3,000km of coastline, has resulted in exposure to
hazardous coastal, shoreline and cliff erosion.
Common examples of land instability in Auckland include:
• landsliding (mass movement of material down a slope under the influence of gravity),
including rotational slides, translational slides, slumps, flows, falls
• subsidence (can occur on flat land as well as sloping, usually the result of draining or
overloading weak soils)
• stream, river bank and coastal erosion.
Location, frequency and magnitude
Much of Auckland is at moderate to high risk of land instability, however assessing the
frequency and magnitude of events is problematic. The GNS Science landslide catalogue
contains more than 135 landslide events that have occurred in the Auckland region since
1993, 98 of which occured in the winter of 2008. Prolonged rainfall of 150 per cent above
normal in Auckland triggered 98 landslides across the Auckland region. The majority of
these landslides were triggered by rainfall, however some of the other underlying causes
were:
• building on old landslides
• unstable land
• slope failures
• joint or fault failures within the
underlying rock
• waves undercutting cliffs causing
significant erosion where houses were
built along the edges.
Figure 7. Landslide at Kawakawa Bay 2008
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Key vulnerabilities and potential impacts
Some potential hazards associated with land instability, coastal cliff and landslide in the
Auckland region are:
• danger to life in the case of sudden onset landslide events
• damage or destruction of buildings and structures
• damage or destruction of lifeline infrastructure such as; water, sewage, gas,
electricity, roads or network lines
• loss of land potentially resulting in an active hazard feature and reduction in
property value
• loss of land resulting in coastal cliffs or shorelines retreating closer to properties
• secondary hazards such as leaking gas or water from broken pipes
• costs associated with remedial works and recovery.
Figure 8. Coastal cliff erosion
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Earthquake
Hazard characteristics
Situated across the boundary between the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates, New
Zealand is a seismically active country with more than 15,000 earthquakes detected
each year by GeoNet (geological hazard monitoring tool run by GNS). Movements of
the plates creates faulting at the ground surface, these are zones of weakness in the
earth’s crust. A measure of earthquake energy release is its magnitude which is generally
recorded using the Richter scale. The measure of an earthquake’s shaking that is felt at
the surface is the Modified Mercalli intensity scale (MMI) which ranges from MMI I to
MMI X in New Zealand. To create hazardous effects for people and assets, earthquake
shaking intensities generally need to reach MMI VI, when objects fall, people may have
difficulty walking and minor building damage can occur.
Earthquake hazards may include the following:
• strong ground shaking (dependent on size, depth and near surface materials)
• fault rupture and permanent ground tilt
• liquefaction (where certain soils under strong shaking lose strength and behave like liquids)
• earthquake induced landslides
• tsunami.
Figure 9. Modified Mercalli intensity scale
Location, frequency and magnitude
While earthquakes do occur in Auckland, we are located in one of the lowest
earthquake activity parts of New Zealand. The Wairoa North fault is the only identified
active fault in Auckland although there is no evidence it has been active within the
past 10,000 years. The Kerepehi fault in the Firth of the Thames is a potential source of
damaging earthquake. Auckland’s strongest ever known quake was the 1891 Waikato
Heads earthquake, which had a magnitude of between 5.5 and 6.0. Yet the only
damage was a chimney in Onehunga falling and some broken pottery and crockery. The
estimated probability of the Auckland region experiencing shaking of MMI VI or greater
is approximately once every 170 years, and the probability of a shaking intensity of MMI
VIII or greater is once every 7400 years.
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Key vulnerabilities and potential impacts
More than 80 per cent of all earthquake-related deaths in New Zealand since 1840
have been due to building damage and high shaking intensities (MMI IX-X). The second
greatest cause of deaths is earthquake-induced landslides. Consequences of a large
damaging earthquake affecting the Auckland region could potentially include:
• physical harm and multiple casualties
• damage to building and infrastructure resulting in financial loss and loss of function
• insurance payments including EQC payments
• interruption to businesses, including loss of employment
• clean up costs of debris
• potential pollution of waterways
• downturn in tourists
• psychological effects on population
• increase in building and recovery activity
• loss and damage to lifeline utilities and key transport routes
• earthquake induced landslides.
Figure 10. Earthquake fault
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Figure 11. History of all recorded earthquakes in Auckland (Source GeoNet)
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Tsunami
Hazard characteristics
A tsunami is a series of waves typically created by sudden movement or rupturing of
the ocean floor, from earthquakes, underwater landslides and underwater volcanic
eruptions. Sudden changes to the sea floor cause the water to be displaced, flowing
away from the disturbance.
In deep water, a tsunami can travel at speeds in excess of 500km/h with the potential to
propagate great distances across the ocean in a matter of hours.
At sea, tsunami wave heights are typically small, however as a tsunami enters shallow
water the wave interaction with the seabed causes it to slow down and increase in
height, in some instances reaching heights of 10m or more. Typically, tsunamis have
wave periods of 15 to 60 minutes, which is longer than wind or wave swells, but shorter
than ocean tides. In low-lying coastal areas they can travel a long way inland. In parts of
Thailand, the tsunami travelled 3km inland destroying almost everything in its path. In
New Zealand, local, regional, or distant sources could generate a tsunami.
Sources that could impact Auckland include:
• Local – off shore faults, underwater volcanic eruptions or large underwater landslides
are likely to have travel times of less than one hour to parts of the Auckland region.
• Regional - Tonga-Kermadec Trench, Southern New Hebrides Trench, large
earthquakes near the southwest Pacific islands are likely to have travel times of one
to three hours.
• Distant - any location around the Pacific Rim including South America, Alaska, the
Aluetian Islands, Kamchatka, Japan are likely to have travel times of three to 15 hours.
Figure 12. Tsunami hazard signs
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Location, frequency and magnitude
The size and nature of any tsunami affecting Auckland will vary on the source location and
how it was created. Since 1840, 11 tsunami have been recorded on the Auckland mainland
coasts with wave heights ranging from <0.1 to 2.9m and are understood to be remotely
generated from South America, Alaska, Tonga-Kermadec Trench or east of Japan. The west
coast of South America is recognised as the most frequent source of tsunamis affecting
Auckland, with two of the largest recorded tsunami events to affect Auckland originating
from earthquakes occurring off the Chilean coast. Areas of low-lying land along the region’s
eastern coasts are at the highest risk including Great Barrier and the Gulf islands.
Key vulnerabilities and potential impacts
Some general hazard consequences associated with tsunami impact are:
• injury or drowning of people in low lying coastal areas due to inundation and debris
• inundation of coastal infrastructure such as roads, airport and ports
• damage to moorings and coastal structures
• coastal erosion and potential loss of support to structures in the coast marine area
• short and long term economic losses due to damage, clean-up and repair
• pollution of land and coastal marine areas from rubbish/debris, oil/petrol and sewage
• major social and psychological effects to the population
• disruption to water networks.
Figure 13. Modelled Chile tsunami arrival time in hours
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Drought
Hazard characteristics
Drought is a normal, recurrent feature of climate. Generally speaking, a drought is
defined as a rainfall deficit which restricts or prevents a human activity – for example,
farming or power generation. One way of measuring drought is through the modelling
of soil moisture deficit, measured in millimetres. It measures the amount of soil
moisture available to the roots of pasture plants, and is generally higher in summer,
when evaporation rates are higher. Droughts are typically produced by persistence in
circulation or increased frequency of a weather type interacting with New Zealand’s
topography. Increased frequencies of anticyclones are a common thread for resulting dry
periods and based on the latest climate and impact modelling, New Zealand can expect
more droughts in the future in some locations.
There are two ways of defining droughts: agricultural drought and hydrological drought
(also referred to as water supply drought). Crops, including pasture, rely on moisture
within the soil to survive. During an agricultural drought, soil moisture deficit becomes
so low that plants can no longer grow and start to die. As soil moisture decreases, plants
become stressed and if the drought is prolonged, they will die. An agricultural drought ends
when adequate amounts of rain restore soil moisture levels. The effects of an agricultural
drought in Auckland can include:
• agricultural productivity being reduced because of less breeding sheep and cattle
• significant economic losses for the horticultural sector
• considerable increases in the risk of fire resulting in the loss of crops.
A hydrological drought is when the effects of low rainfall affect hydrological systems
such as rivers and lakes. This generally occurs when rainfall is well below expected levels
in any large catchment’s area for an extended period of time causing water supply
shortages.
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Location, frequency and magnitude
Droughts are typically produced by persistence in circulation or increased frequency of a
weather type interacting with New Zealand’s topography, generally associated with the
high occurrence of anticyclones. Other climatic factors such as high temperature, high
wind and low relative humidity also influence the severity of potential hazards caused by
drought. The most recent examples of drought in New Zealand have been in the years
2013, 2010, 2008, 2007 and 1997-1998.
Key vulnerabilities and potential impacts
The impacts of drought can be economic, environmental and social. Some of the impacts
of a drought include:
• Economic losses in yields in agriculture and related sectors e.g. increased prices for
food, and reduced income for farmers.
• Insect infestations, plant disease, and wind erosion.
• Damage to plants and animals, wildlife habitat, and air and water quality.
• Forest and wildfires leading to a reduced landscape quality.
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Loss of biodiversity and soil erosion.
Public safety and health.
Conflicts between water users.
Inequities in the distribution of impacts and drought relief.
Figure 14. Soil moisture deficit 12/03/13
23
Wildfire
Hazard characteristics
A wildfire is an uncontrolled fire which can destroy infrastructure and devastate agricultural
resources and the environment. Strong winds, high temperatures, low humidity and
seasonal drought can combine to produce dangerous fire weather situations. Assessment of
the effect of fire weather (and other environmental factors of fuels and topography) on the
potential fire occurrence and fire behaviour in New Zealand is assisted by the use of the
New Zealand Fire Danger Rating System and the Wildfire Threat Analysis (WTA).
Location, frequency and magnitude
There is a risk of wildfire in forested areas to the north including the Woodhill, Mahurangi,
and Dome Valley Forests and to the south Whitford Forest, Regional Parks (Waitakere Forests
and Hunua Ranges) and the islands of the Hauraki Gulf. Fires in these areas can be caused
by agricultural burn-off getting out of control, arson, careless activities such as campfires,
or natural causes such as lightning strikes. Weather, over the short and long term, plays a
significant factor to the risk of wildfire, where prolonged drought increases the hazard of forest
and grass fuels. Scrub fuels can dry out with a few days of dry weather and strong winds can
buffet and spread wildfire rapidly. Topography can impact on fire behaviour either indirectly,
by influencing weather conditions, or directly by speeding up the spread of fire by preheating
the fuel in front. Auckland Council undertakes a Regional Wildlife Threat Analysis to assess the
regions vulnerability. The risk of wildfire fluctuates seasonally and from year to year, with the
total number of wildfires occurring annually around Auckland high compared to other parts of
New Zealand, however most fires are contained before they become destructive.
Key vulnerabilities and potential impacts
Although the number of wildfires occurring
annually in the Auckland region is low, the
consequence is extremely high with a growing
population, significant cultural and biodiversity
values, forestry, horticulture and property
exposed to wildfire.
If a wildfire isn’t controlled it could result in:
• evacuations from properties
• buildings destroyed
• loss of life
• physical loss and economic damage to
the biodiversity, horticultural, agricultural
and forestry sectors.
24
Figure 15. Great Barrier Island Wildfires
January 2013
Tornado
Hazard characteristics
A tornado is a rapidly rotating vortex or narrow column of air, extending from the base
of a cumulonimbus cloud (or thunderstorm) to the ground. The origin of tornadoes is
often associated with well-developed thunderstorm cells on cold fronts. Thunderstorms
have very strong updrafts and if these occur in an environment in which the wind
directions rotate as the air rises, the updraft can start to spin and a mesocyclone (a
vortex of air within a convective storm) can form. It is from these mesocylcones, which
can be as little as 1-2km across, that tornadoes are spawned.
Location, frequency and magnitude
Tornadoes in Auckland are very localised with the damage usually confined to where the
tornado tracks. A tornado will typically last for a few minutes, track across the land for
2 to 5km and will have a diameter of 20 to 100m. Wind speeds are in the order of 115
to 180km/h. At the more extreme end, some tornadoes track for over 100km, are more
than 1km wide and have winds up to 480 km/h – such tornadoes are extremely rare,
anywhere in the world. On average, Auckland is hit by a tornado less than once per year,
but there is considerable variability from year to year with some years getting none.
Figure 16. Tornado formation diagram
25
Figure 17. Tornado
Recent tornado episodes that have caused damage in Auckland include:
• 6 December 2012 - Hobsonville down draft
• 3 May 2011 – Albany tornado
• 4 July 2007 – South East Auckland (Botany Downs, Golflands, Somerville)
• 25 June 2005 – Ardmore two mini tornadoes
• 22 December 2004 – Penrose and Mt Wellington tornado
Key vulnerabilities and potential impacts
In Auckland, a tornado’s short life span and their tendency to form offshore means
detecting their formation is almost impossible. The inability to predict events means
people in the path of a tornado are highly vulnerable to injury or death. Most tornado
injuries or deaths relate to airborne debris or building collapse.
In Auckland, tornadoes have historically caused damage to:
• buildings and powerlines
• fences and trees
• vehicles (overturned)
• injuries and lives lost.
26
Stanmore Bay
8 October 1966
d
Albany
3 May 2011
1 May 1991
1 May 1970
Whenuapai/Hobsonville
6 December 2012
Whenuapai
7 December 1967
dd
Rothesay/Browns Bays
1981
dd
d d
d
ddd
Takapuna
8 December 1975
28 August 1967
28 October 1961
Avondale
11 September 2011
1 March 1964
Auckland City
31 October 2001
17 October 1970
15 May 1970
10 April 1969
14 April 1968
4 March 1966
24 March 1961
Remuera
7 February 1968
19 November 1967
8 October 1966
d ddd dd
ddd
dd d
d dd d
d d
Waitemata Harbour x3
27 December 1967
d
Browns Bay
2003
Mt Wellington/Penrose
22 December 2004
d
Botany Downs,
Golflands,
Somerville
4 July 2007
Blockhouse Bay
25 October 2002
Piha
27 December 1975
Onehunga
8 December 1975
8 October 1966
Papatoetoe
29 May 1963
Mangere
11 September 1970
This map/plan is illustrative only and all information
should be independently verified on site before taking
any action.Copyright Auckland Council. Land Parcel
Boundary information from LINZ (Crown Copyright Reserved).
Whilst due care has been taken, Auckland Council gives
no warranty as to the accuracy and completeness of any
information on this map/plan and accepts no liability for
any error, omission or use of the information.
Height datum: Auckland 1946.
Date: 12 December 2012
dd
Ardmore x2
25 June 2005
Auckland Tornado Reports 1961 - 1975 and
Damaging Tornado Reports 2000 - Present
Note: The 1961-1975 data does include some waterspout sightings
Figure 16. Tornado formation diagram
27
Man-made Hazards
28
Infrastructure failure
Infrastructure failure is recognised as an array of causes resulting in critical service
interruption.
Hazard characteristics
Auckland has experienced major infrastructure failures in the past including loss of
power, a water supply restrictions and gas supply disruption. The source of failure can
be local or may originate from outside of the region and can be a result of natural or
technological hazards.
The consequences of infrastructure failure can be significant. Each individual utility
undertakes comprehensive asset management and operational planning to reduce the
possibility of failure and ensure that services are re-established as soon as possible
if failure does occur. Most of these companies have representatives on the Auckland
Engineering Lifelines Group (AELG) which investigates the risk of infrastructure failure
arising from hazards and potential mitigation actions to improve resilience.
Major infrastructure that exists in Auckland include:
• electricity
• water supply
• wastewater services
• natural gas
• fuel
• telecommunications
• transport.
Figure 19. Power lines
29
Electricity
Auckland has experienced large power failures in the past, most notably the 1998
Mercury power crisis, which involved four power cables failing resulting in power supplies
being cut to downtown Auckland for six weeks.
Impacts included:
• severe disruption to services and businesses approximately 400 businesses were
directly affected
• economic loss to those firms affected especially retail, hospitality and industrial sectors
• an estimated long-term economic impact equivalent to 0.1 to 0.3 per cent of New
Zealand’s Gross Domestic Product
• 54 per cent of businesses in the area vacating their premises during the power outage,
affecting 70,000 workers and 7,500 residents.
Water supply
Auckland’s water supply is obtained from three different types of sources; dams, rivers
and from under the ground. Around 80 per cent of Auckland’s water supply originates
from reservoirs in the Hunua and Waitakere Ranges, with the combined reservoir
capacity of Auckland’s dams over 100 billion litres. Aucklands water supply is sourced,
treated and distributed by Watercare Services Limited.
In the summer of 1994 -1995 Auckland experienced a drought caused by well below
average rainfall. As a result, water restrictions were put in place and subsequent
measures implemented to upgrade the capacity of the city’s supplies. Since
then improvements to the water supply system mean that an event with similar
consequences would be expected to occur on average once every 200 years.
Resulting impacts if the water supply was affected in the Auckland region include;
• Major effect on farmers and the rural community
• Significant economic loss
• Major disruption to services and business who rely on water
For more information go to: www.watercare.co.nz
30
Wastewater services
Each day around 350 million litres of wastewater is collected in Auckland and treated
by 20 wastewater plants. Most of Auckland’s water is dependent on two plants - the
Mangere and Rosedale treatment plants.
Wastewater system failure within the Auckland region could result in:
• evacuation and closure of some organisations or businesses within affected areas
depending on the nature of failure
• sanitation and biological hazards including the outbreak of sewage-borne diseases
such as dysentery, typhoid and cholera
• overloading of operational parts of system, resulting in overflows, possible coastal
pollution and human and animal health problems requiring medical attention
or hospitalisation
• a costly cleanup caused by any contamination.
For more information go to: www.watercare.co.nz
Natural gas
High-pressure pipelines from offshore gas fields near Taranaki transport most of Auckland’s
domestic and commercial gas supplies. In October 2011, the largest of these pipelines
ruptured causing a significant reduction to gas supplies to much of the North Island.
In Auckland, the widespread effects included:
• disruption and temporary closures of restaurants, fast food chains and similar
small businesses
• disruption and temporary closure of facilities at hotels, swimming pools and gyms
• disruption to council facilities such as crematoriums, library and art galleries
• temporary closures or a reduction in production at large commercial properties and
industries reliant on gas.
A large network of pipes distributes gas across the Auckland region. Damage to this
network can occur from natural events, poor maintenance or human error, such as
excavations.
Damage may result in:
• possible evacuations of the affected area
• fire as a result of explosions
• inconvenience to businesses or residential properties reliant on gas for cooking
and heating
• gas inhalation impacting health
• spread of gas through underground networks requiring closure and potential
evacuation of large areas.
31
Fuel
Most of Auckland’s fuel comes from the Refining NZ’s Marsden Point refinery and is
transferred via the Marsden-Wiri pipeline to a depot in south Auckland. From there,
aviation fuel is distributed directly to Auckland Airport and commercial fuel is distributed
across the region by tanker. Disruption to the refinery, pipeline or fuel distribution
network could have significant impacts, depending on the length of disruption, including:
• panic buying and congestion at fuel stations which would quickly deplete available
fuel stocks
• social and economic impacts due to loss of petroleum-run transport, including
significant disruption to air traffic disorder
• economic loss to the petroleum industry and associated industries due to loss
of supply
• pipeline failure resulting in fire and then costs associated with clean-up
• adverse environmental effects if fuel is spilt, particularly in or around marine areas.
Although most fuel supply disruptions can and will be managed by the fuel and oil
industry stakeholders, an Auckland Fuel Contingency Plan has been developed in case of
a major or prolonged fuel supply shortage.
Figure 20. Fuel
32
Telecommunications
The telecommunications sector is one of the most complex of the lifeline utility sectors.
This is due to the rapid change of technolog providers and customer preferences.
Another factor is the level of inter-connectedness between the various providers which
share parts of the network and exchange messages between networks.
Failure of telecommunication systems could result in:
• emergency services losing their primary communication network
• short-term economic loss to businesses and industries
• negative impacts on banks and financial systems.
Several situations involving telecommunication failure have occurred in Auckland,
including:
• 2005 - Two separate cable faults paralysed Telecom’s broadband and mobile
networks in the North Island. This led to overloaded landlines and crashed the New
Zealand Stock Exchange (NZX)
• 2010 - Parts of Telecom’s new XT network failed. Calls in and out of the mobile
network failed in different areas of New Zealand throughout the year as did the
broadband service. The national 111 service was affected
• 2011 - A fibre optic cable failure led to a number of police stations without certain
services. Police headquarters, 130 police stations and three communications centres
had to use manual processing for some procedures with efficiency loss.
33
Transport
Airport
The Auckland Airport is the gateway for around three quarters of New Zealand’s
overseas visitors. In the 12 months to March 2013, 14.35 million passengers and 200,000
tonnes of freight passed through the airport. Smaller airports that operate in Auckland
include Hobsonville, Whenuapai, Ardmore, Dairy Flat and some on the Gulf Islands.
Shutdown or disruption of airport operations may result in:
• disruption of travel plans to tens of thousands of passengers each day resulting in
stretched accommodation facilities for prolonged periods of shut-down
• loss of income and opportunities for businesses and industries dependant on
airport facilities
• long-term economic losses to the tourism, export and import industries.
Port
Businesses that depend on Ports of Auckland operations account for about one third of
Auckland’s economic activity. Billions of dollars of exports and imports pass through each
year, mostly the port in the Central Business District (CBD) but also through a smaller
port that operates at Onehunga. Both of these ports are built on reclaimed land (the
process of creating new land from ocean, riverbeds or lakes), which means they could be
damaged during a large earthquake. The ports could cease to operate for a number of
reasons such as ship strike of a major berth, vessels sinking in or around shipping lanes,
union strikes or other natural/technological hazards.
Any of these events could result in:
• disruption to transport industries if cargo could no longer be received or dispatched
• short-term economic loss to businesses and industries associated with port operations
• long-term economic loss, particularly for prolonged events or major disruption
• structural damage and large clean-up costs.
Figure 21. Ports of Auckland
34
Rail
Auckland’s rail network is a single north-south trunk line with minor branches connecting
to the CBD, the Port of Onehunga and Manukau. In many instances, the line consists
of two or three tracks, meaning that if one is damaged by a hazard the others are likely
to be also. Approximately 30,000 passengers commute on the rail network and large
amounts of freight are transported each day.
Disruption to the rail network can include:
• disruption and economic loss related to stranded workers and customers
• traffic congestion as rail users seek alternative forms of transport
• large structural repair and clean-up costs.
The system also relies on a signal system run by KiwiRail in Wellington. In April 2012, an
outage occurred at Wellington’s National Train Control about 4pm after backup systems
failed. This disrupted Auckland’s afternoon and evening peak-time trains for some hours.
If an earthquake occurs in Wellington causing a similar failure, Auckland’s train service
could be severely affected until power could be restored.
Road
Auckland’s strategic arterial roads include all motorways and state highways.
Geographical restrictions of the Auckland isthmus cause a bottleneck effect and the road
network can be susceptible to congestion, particularly during peak commuting times.
The completion of the SH 20 link to SH 16 is strategically important in providing another
north-south route through Auckland. Failure to one or more of the arterial routes may
result from a variety of sources such as a major accident or structural damage from a
natural hazard.
Impacts may include:
• fatalities or injury to drivers, passengers, other road users and pedestrians
• traffic congestion causing disruption to airports, industrial areas and tourist centres
• drivers seeking alternative routes causing traffic congestion along adjacent
arterial roads
• panic buying and supply issues because of disruption to goods delivery
• stretched emergency services potentially leading to social disorder
• economic loss to businesses isolated by road network failure
• disruption and economic loss related to stranded workers and customers
• large structural repair and clean-up costs.
35
Public health crisis
Hazard characteristics
A public health crisis can overwhelm the resources of a society due to the exceptional number
of those affected. Influenza is a major threat to public health worldwide because of its ability
to spread rapidly through populations and across international borders. Influenza pandemics
are characterised by the global spread of a virus and can cause unusually high morbidity and
mortality for an extended period, causing severe social, economic, and political stress. An
influenza pandemic occurs when an animal influenza virus to which most humans have no
immunity acquires the ability to cause sustained chains of human-to-human transmission
leading to community-wide outbreaks. Such a virus has the potential to spread worldwide,
causing a pandemic. The development of an influenza pandemic can be considered the result
of the transformation of an animal influenza virus into a human influenza virus. Since the
16th century, influenza pandemics have been described at intervals ranging between 10 and
50 years with varying severity and impact.
Location, frequency and magnitude
Three major influenza pandemics occurred in the 20th century, reaching New Zealand in
1918, 1957 and 1968. The most recent pandemic was the novel Influenza A (H1N1) or
swine flu, which was thought to have originated from Mexico, and was first detected in
New Zealand on 25 April 2009. As of 7 July 2009, there were 1195 confirmed cases, with
12 critical cases nationwide and 53 people hospitalised, and by October 2009 the total
number of deaths attributed to the swine flu was 19. The surge of patients with H1N1
influenza placed substantial strain on staff and resources, and hospitals were stretched to
the very limit of resources. The Ministry of Health is working with the health sector and
other Government agencies to ensure New Zealand is as prepared as possible for another
potential pandemic.
36
Key vulnerabilities and potential impacts
The actual consequences affecting Auckland depend on the nature of each public health
crisis and our ability to respond.
A public health crisis could occur at any time resulting in:
• loss of life
• medical facilities struggling to cope with a possible large surge in demand
• potentially serious shortages of personnel and products resulting in disruption of key
infrastructure and services, and continuity of all sectors of business and government
• delayed and limited availability of pandemic influenza vaccines, antivirals and
antibiotics as well as common medical supplies for treatment of other illnesses
• negative impact on social and economic activities of communities which could last
long after the end of the pandemic period
• a global emergency limiting the potential for international assistance
• widespread social and psychological disruption and isolation
• loss of international reputation and tourism, with residual effect for some years
following recovery
• restricted access to some international destinations for people and exports.
Figure 22. Public health crisis
37
Biological hazards:
agricultural/
horticultural emergency
Hazard characteristics
There is a large range of biological hazards that if not controlled, avoided or managed
could significantly affect human health or affect New Zealand’s economy. Industry
sectors such as agriculture and fisheries can be adversely affected, as well as human
and animal health and infrastructure such as water supply and treatment networks.
Plagues and biological hazards can cause widespread loss of life and could have serious
consequences such as:
• foot and mouth disease could seriously affect the agriculture industry
• algal blooms can affect water supply
• the fruit fly can affect agricultural and horticultural industries
• the painted apple moth
• kauri dieback disease.
Due to New Zealand’s economic dependence on the horticultural, agricultural and
forestry industries, and limited historical exposure to such hazards, Auckland is
very susceptible.
Location, frequency and magnitude
There have been threats of biological hazards or actual agricultural/horticultural
emergencies in the past. Some these include:
Foot and mouth disease - There has never been a case of foot and mouth disease
in New Zealand, in people nor animals. Hand, foot and mouth disease is an unrelated
human disease.
Queensland fruit fly – The Queensland Fruit Fly (QFF) has the potential to infest a
wide range of horticultural crops, garden plants, native plants and weeds. The main way
QFF spreads is by being carried through infested fruit. In May 2012, a single male fruit fly
was detected in the Auckland suburb of Avondale.
38
Kauri dieback – Kauri dieback is a fungus-like disease specific to New Zealand kauri.
This disease is spread via spores in the soil and can kill seedlings and trees of all ages
Key vulnerabilities and potential impacts
The actual consequences affecting Auckland depend on the nature of each hazard and
our ability to respond.
Some of the consequences may include:
• destruction of and economic losses to Auckland’s dairy and cattle industries, forestry,
fruit and produce, wine or fisheries industries
• loss of exports from these markets
• loss of employment and closure of some businesses
• competition and habitat reduction for some native animal species and potential loss
of these species from Auckland
• spread of disease to other animals
• serious human health risks.
Figure 23. Algal blooms affecting water supply
39
Crash: Aircraft
Hazard characteristics
An aviation incident is defined as an occurrence associated with the operation of an
aircraft, which takes place between the time any person boards the aircraft with the
intention of flight until such time as all such persons have disembarked and the engine
or any propellers or rotors come to rest. No large-scale aircraft accidents requiring
a response from Civil Defence and Emergency Management have ever occurred
in Auckland. Such an event could occur, as the region has the largest and busiest
international airport in New Zealand.
The long term accident rate (accidents versus hours flown) is decreasing – except for
helicopters. Accidents usually occur just before, during or just after landing and take-off.
Causes of aircraft accident occurrences can include:
• pilot error (either weather, mechanical or health related)
• other human error (such as air traffic controllers, miscommunications)
• weather
• mechanical failure
• sabotage.
Figure 24. 23rd November 2011 Helicopter crash
40
Location, frequency and magnitude
Over the three years between 1996 and 1999 there were about 40 aircraft accidents in
Auckland, which equated to 13 per cent of all aircraft accidents in New Zealand. Most
accidents involved small aircraft, less than 2721kg in weight. A series of accidents in
moderate sized aircraft (less than 13,608kg in weight) occurred in Auckland during the
1990s including four in 1990, two in 1991, one in 1993 and one in 1997. The most
recent aircraft occurrences in Auckland have been:
Auckland harbour helicopter crash: 7 May 2013
The first carbon fibre helicopter of its kind was flying over the East Coast Bays along
the water taking aerial photography when the helicopter lost power. Both pilot and
passenger escaped injury.
Auckland waterfront helicopter crash: 23 November 2011
A helicopter pilot was installing a large fibre optic Christmas tree in Auckland’s Viaduct
Basin when his chopper plunged to the ground. The pilot, contractors and onlookers
escaped serious injury.
Auckland city mid-air collision: 1993
In November 1993, a small helicopter and a light aircraft crashed killing all four
occupants and injuring one motorist on the ground. The collision occurred at less than
500m above Queen Street and Karangahape Road causing major disruption to the
Auckland motorway network due to the huge amount of debris.
Key vulnerabilities and potential impacts
Although the aircraft accident occurrence rate is decreasing, there could be significant
impacts if a major incident was to occur, such as:
• significant loss of life and severe injuries, impacts on hospitals and emergency services
• significant structural damage and impact on infrastructure and major lifeline utilities
• economic loss due to reduction in tourism and major utilities
• impacts to international airport.
41
Hazardous substances spill
Hazard characteristics
A variety of hazardous substances are transported, stored or used within Auckland. Many
industrial areas are near residential and environmentally sensitive areas.
A hazardous substance is any substance that has one or more of the following properties
above specified levels:
• an explosive nature (including fireworks)
• flammability
• ability to oxidise (e.g. accelerate a fire)
• corrosiveness
• acute or chronic toxicity (toxic to humans)
• ecotoxicity, with or without bioaccumulation (e.g. can kill living things either directly
or by building up in the environment)
• can generate a hazardous substance on contact with air or water.
Hazardous substances can have more than one hazardous property. For example,
methylated spirits and petrol are flammable and toxic.
Figure 25. ICI Chemical Warehouse fire 1984 42
Other hazardous substances could include:
• fireworks
• industrial gases such as LPG
• industrial solvents
• animal remedies
• cleaning fluids
• cosmetic ingredients
• manufacturing chemicals.
Location, frequency and magnitude
Parnell Fumes Incident: 1973
Residents of the suburb of Parnell woke on 27 February 1973 with stinging eyes and sore
throats, and emergency services were alerted. The source of the problem was a number
of leaking steel drums containing Merphon organophosphate cotton defoliant, which had
been dumped on a section in Parnell after being offloaded from a freighter bound from
Mexico to Australia. Over the next four days, 6000 people were evacuated from their
homes and 643 were treated in hospital, including 41 firefighters who either inhaled
fumes or were burned by the caustic soda used to neutralise the defoliant.
ICI Warehouse Fire: 1984
In December 1984, a serious chemical fire at the ICI warehouse in Mount Wellington
resulted in one death and 26 people being injured. The fire led to an investigation of how
we control and manage pollution and hazardous substances. It concluded that our rules
and regulations had many gaps, overlaps and areas of poor performance and required law
changes. As a result, the Hazardous Substances and New Organisms Act (HSNO) came
into force in 1996. The Act requires the safe use and disposal of hazardous substances.
Key vulnerabilities and potential impacts
If released in sufficient quantities, hazardous substances can potentially harm people’s
health, endanger sensitive species, habitats or ecosystems, and contaminate land and
water resources. Hazardous substance release can be caused by natural events, transport
crashes, criminal activity and lack of care during use, storage or disposal.
The effects of a hazardous substances release increases if two hazardous substances in
close proximity trigger a chemical reaction in the other. A hazardous substance release
can affect a large area through large explosions or toxic gas plumes.
43
Criminal acts, civil unrest,
vandlism or terrorism
Hazard characteristics
Terrorism is the use of violence to achieve ideological, political or religious ends. In New
Zealand the Police Commissioner is accountable for the operational response to threats to
national security, including terrorism, civil unrest and vandalism. Civil unrest is a broad term
used to describe unrest or disorder caused by a group of people. In Auckland this could result
in illegal parades or demonstrations, sit-ins, riots, sabotage and other forms of crime which
could easily escalate into general chaos. The risk and outcomes associated with large-scale
vandalism or terrorism varies, and will depend on the nature and scale of the incident.
Location, frequency and magnitude
The 1951 waterfront dispute
The waterfront dispute of 1951 was the biggest industrial confrontation in New Zealand’s
history. Although it was not as violent as the Great Strike of 1913, it lasted longer – 151 days.
At its peak 22,000 waterside workers (wharfies) and other unionists were off the job. The
1951 confrontation was the culmination of decades of unrest on the water.
The 1981 Springbok rugby tour
For 56 days in July, August and September in 1981, New Zealanders were divided against
each other in the largest civil disturbance seen since the 1951 waterfront dispute. More than
150,000 people took part in more than 200 demonstrations in 28 centres and 1500 were
charged with offences stemming from these protests.
Rainbow Warrior terrorist bomb, 10 July 1985
In 1985, French secret service agents planted two bombs and sank The Greenpeace flagship
the Rainbow Warrior which was moored at Marsden Wharf in Auckland harbour. One crew
member was killed in the explosion. The Rainbow Warrior had been involved in protests over
nuclear testing in the Pacific.
Occupy Auckland; 15th October 2011 to 26th January 2012
Occupy Auckland lasted a total of 104 days where approximately 200 tents and 300 activists
were located in Auckland’s Aotea Square, Albert Park and Victoria Park. The protest was
centered on the economic injustice, the political system and the ideas we have to maintain
that within New Zealand. The ‘Occupy’ movement was a global movement that initially
started with Occupy Wall Street, due to release of the Luxembourg Wealth Study which
identified a huge gap between the rich and poor in developed countries.
44
Key vulnerabilities and potential impacts
If terrorism in Auckland was targeted at significant infrastructure providers or heavily
relied upon systems, terrorism could have significant consequences as described under
infrastructure failure.
Other potential consequences include:
• social and psychological injury
• sickness or illness depending on the nature of the attack
• short-term economic losses to industries and businesses attacked
• man-made disasters.
Residents not directly involved in the civil disorder may have their lives significantly
disrupted, with the ability to work, enjoy recreation and obtain day to day necessities
being restricted. Public utilities such as water, fuel, and electricity may be temporarily
unavailable, as well as public infrastructure for communication.
Long term impacts could include:
• economic stagnation
• severe inflation
• devaluation of currencies
• severe unemployment
• oppression
• political scandal.
Figure 26. Union march in Wellington, waterfront dispute 1951
45
Dam failure
Hazard characteristics
Auckland’s water supply is obtained from three different types of sources; dams, rivers
and from under the ground. The exact proportion of water supply from each source
varies daily depending on the storage levels in the dams and the time of the year. The
Auckland region has a large number of dams for water supply, irrigation, farm waste
treatment, storm water treatment, sediment control, storing contaminated sediments
and sewage treatment. These dams are mainly located in two areas, the Hunua Ranges
and the Waitakere Ranges which together supply around 80 per cent of Auckland’s
drinking water with the combined reservoir capacity of over 100 billion litres. About 50
dams in the Auckland region are large enough to cause significant damage if they fail.
Location, frequency and magnitude
Dam failure can result from:
• natural factors such as earthquake and volcanism
• age (wear and construction techniques at the time of development)
• poor design, construction and operation.
Poor foundation materials, poor dam drainage, and weak construction materials are
three primary factors associated with dam failure in New Zealand. The vulnerability of
downstream features is considered prior to dam construction.
Dams that adhere to the Dam Safety Guidelines are constructed to a standard that will
survive up to a one in 200 year natural hazards event, such as an earthquake. Some dams
are designed to provide protection from events with even lower return periods.
The most recent dam failure in New Zealand was the Opuha Dam, South Canterbury,
which failed during construction in February 1997 due to heavy rain.
46
Key vulnerabilities and potential impacts
If one of the 50 large dams in Auckland were to fail, the flood wave would be characterised
by high velocity, large water depth and flow close to the dam, reducing downstream.
Possible consequences of this are:
• flooding of land and communities located downstream of the dam with a consequent
risk of loss of human life, and damage to structures, economic losses to businesses,
farms and horticultural industries
• erosion and deposition of sediment over an area up to perhaps a kilometre long and
several hundred metres wide
• failure of utility services, including roads, bridges and pipework located in the path
of the flood
• reduced water supply to Auckland if the dam is a water supply dam.
Figure 27. Waitakere Dam
47
Marine incidents
Hazard characteristics
There is a risk of a major shipping accident occuring in the Auckland coastal region,
although none have occurred to date. The Port of Auckland is a large container and
international trade port on the Waitemata Harbour, lying on the central and eastern
Auckland waterfront (north of Auckland CBD). The 55ha of wharves and storage areas
(mostly for containers, cars and other large cargo) are almost exclusively situated
on reclaimed land. The port is visited by around 1,600 commercial vessels a year
accounting for 60% of New Zealand’s imports and 40% of its exports. The port also
caters for approximately 48 cruise ships a season, with more than 100,000 passengers
passing through.
Figure 28. Rena marine grounding October 2011 48
Location, frequency and magnitude
Rena Marine Grounding October 2011
One of the most recent marine incidents to occur in New Zealand was the grounding
of the cargo vessel Rena, which struck Astrolabe Reef 12 nautical miles off Tauranga in
the early morning of 5 October 2011. The 21-year-old 236m Liberian-flagged vessel
was en route from Napier to Tauranga and travelling at 21 knots when it struck. Rena
was carrying 1368 containers and 1733 tonnes of heavy fuel oil on board at the time
of grounding, along with 25 crew members on board. Due to bad weather, equipment
breakdown and hazardous and changeable conditions approximately 830 containers
were lost overboard (however they were intercepted and recovered where possible)
and approximately 350 tonnes of oil was washed up on the coast of the Bay of Plenty,
sparking a large clean up and recovery effort. The Rena sank in early April of 2012.
Key vulnerabilities and potential impacts
A worst-case scenario in Auckland would involve a major ship collision with a structure
that carries a large number of people such as the Auckland Harbour Bridge or a cruise
ship collision and/or grounding.
This could result in:
• those on board or on the structure drowning
• emergency resources including police, rescue services and hospitals being stretched
• damage of infrastructure causing the port to be disabled such as the Auckland
Harbour Bridge access being lost, with consequent traffic congestion in the CBD,
North Shore and Upper Harbour Drive areas
• long-term economic costs due to offshore clean-up and repair or reconstruction
works onshore
• possible long-term environmental consequences, depending on ship cargo and nature
of the incident.
49
Space hazards
Hazard characteristics
Though the sun is located 149 million kilometres from Earth, its never-ending activity
guarantees an impact on earth that could be in the form of solar wind, to the more
unpredictable bombardment of solar flares and coronal mass ejections. The earth is
also at risk from other space hazards/debris such as bolide impact, and impacts from
man-made vehicles such as satellites falling from space. A bolide means any object that
hits the earth and explodes, with no regard to its composition. The increasing use of
space has resulted in a new risk of collisions between man-made objects, or inoperative
spacecraft/hardware entering back into earth’s atmosphere. The heat of reentry generally
detroys the satellite and its components, however sometimes large components may
survive reentry and pose a hazard to people and property on the ground.
Freed plasma from the sun’s surface explodes into space as a coronal mass ejection
(CME). It takes several hours for the CME to detach itself from the sun, but once it
does, it races away at speeds of up to 1000km/h. The cloud of hot plasma and charged
particles may be up to a hundred billion kilograms in size. An example of a CME is the
Northern Lights (Auroras), which normally occur in the polar regions. When the energy
from a solar storm reaches the vicinity of earth, charged particles in our planet’s upper
atmosphere interact with the air molecules to create aurora, displayed in a fantastic
array of colours.
Bolide impact generally refers to the impact of meteorites on the earth surface,
sometimes referring to a ‘fireball’. Around 15,000 tonnes of meteoroids and other
different forms of ‘space dust’ enter the earth’s atmosphere each year; these are small
particles from a comet or asteroid and usually disintegrate in the earth’s atmosphere.
50
Location, frequency and magnitude
The largest CME event to have ever been recorded occurred on 1 September 1859 and
was named the Carrington Event. This geomagnetic storm created auroras visible in
the tropics, telegraph systems worldwide went haywire, major blackouts occurred, and
aurora-induced power surges melted power transformers.
The most recent bolide impact was the Russian Meteor which occurred on 15 February
2013. This brighter than usual meteor or ‘fireball’ exploded above the Russian Ural
Mountains, injuring more than a thousand people, creating a sonic boom and damaging
hundreds of buildings.
Key vulnerabilities and potential impacts
A CME brings an increase in radiation and charged particles when it reaches the earth’s
magnetic sphere, resulting in increased energy (magnetic storm) similar to that found in
a bolt of lightning. Whilst a bolt of lightning lasts a microsecond, these ‘magnetic storms’
can last far longer. Impacts we might see on the earth’s surface include:
• damage to sensitive electronic equipment
• power transformers can overload causing long-lasting blackout
• GPS signals can be disrupted giving inaccurate readings
• long metal structures (like oil and gas pipelines) can carry currents which can lead to
corrosion over time.
Bolide impacts on the earth surface can cause widespread damage, including:
• death and injuries
• significant infrastructure and property damage from either impact or sonic boom
• crater formation.
Figure 29. Northern lights
51
References
National Institute of Water &
Atmospheric Research Ltd
www.niwa.co.nz
• Cyclones
• Tornadoes
• Climate change
• Flooding
• Drought
• Erosion: Coastal cliff
MetService
www.caa.govt.nz
• Aircraft incidents
Watercare
www.watercare.co.nz
• Dam failure
• Water infrastructure
Environment Protection
Authority
www.metservice.com
• Flooding
www.epa.govt.nz
• Hazardous substances
GNS Science
Maritime New Zealand
www.gns.cri.nz
• Earthquake
• Volcanoes
• Land instability
• Tsunami
New Zealand Fire Service
and New Zealand Rural Fire
Authority (NRFA)
www.fire.org.nz and www.nrfa.org.nz
• Wildfire
• Urban fire
Ministry for Primary
Industries
www.mpi.govt.nz
• Drought
• Biological hazards
52
Civil Aviation Authority
www.maritimenz.govt.nz
• Marine incidents
New Zealand Police
www.police.govt.nz
• Criminal acts
Ministry of Health
www.health.govt.nz
• Pandemic
• Biological hazards
Ministry for the Environment
www.mfe.govt.nz
• Hazardous substances
Space and NASA
www.space.com
www.nasa.gov
• Space debris
Image Credits
Figure 3:
Figure 25:
NASA
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/about_legal.php
http://www.goes-r.gov/users/comet/tropical/
textbook_2nd_edition/image_galleries.htm
Historic : Auckland I.C.I Chemical fire and
explosion at Mt Wellington 1984.
Neg 1601/1 (1984)
Filed 5 Feb 1992
NZH 21dec1994
1984 New Zealand Herald Photograph
Figure 6:
Portland road flooding, NZ Herald
Figure 26:
Figure 9:
Modified Mercalli scale, USGS
Figure 13:
Chile tsunami arrival times photo, National
Geophysical Data Center (NGDC)
Figure 23:
Helicopter crash, Firefighters and emergency
services working at the scene of a helicopter
accident in Auckland’s Viaduct Basin this
morning. The Helisika Helicopters aircraft
was operating above Te Wero Island when
it came into trouble and hit the ground with
a detached tail boom. The pilot escaped
relatively unharmed. 23 November 2011.
New Zealand Herald Photograph by
Sarah Ivey
NAD 24Nov11 - SHOCK: The helicopter
crashed to the ground in Auckland’s Viaduct
Harbour. PHOTO/APN
HISTORIC UNIONS
Watersiders dispute 1951
With batons drawn, the police halt the
procession at the intersection of Cuba and
Dixon Street. A minor scuffle is occuring on
the street to the right of the picture.
The watersiders were attempting to march
on Parliament. NZH
Figure 28:
Rena photo: Maritime NZ
Figure 29:
Northern lights, National Geophysical Data
Center (NGDC)
53
978-1-927302-00-2 (print)
978-1-927302-53-8 (online)