Effects of Compact City Characteristics
on Transport Energy Efficiency
Roy Kong
1 May 2013
Topics
– Introduction
• Transport Energy Efficiency
• Compact City
– 1. Is the Compact City idea valid?
– 2. What are the best indicators of the Transport Energy
Efficiency?
– 3. How do we compare between schemes?
Effects of Compact City Characteristics on
Transport Energy Efficiency
September 1, 2013
Page 2
Topics
– Introduction
• Transport Energy Efficiency
• Compact City
– 1. Is the Compact City idea valid?
– 2. What are the best indicators of the Transport Energy
Efficiency?
– 3. How do we compare between schemes?
Effects of Compact City Characteristics on
Transport Energy Efficiency
September 1, 2013
Page 3
Transport Energy Consumption
• 27% of Global Energy Consumption
• Personal Travel as the primary factor of the projected
increase (EIA, 2011)
– Take UK as an example
• 20%
40% of Total Energy
Consumption
• Share Doubled in 40 years
Effects of Compact City Characteristics
on Transport Energy Efficiency
September 1, 2013
Page 4
Compact City
More
Energy
Efficient
More Dense
Effects of Compact City Characteristics
on Transport Energy Efficiency
September 1, 2013
Page 5
Compact City
– “meets the needs of the present without compromising
the ability of future generations to meet their needs”
(WECD,1987)
Sustainability
– Five main Compact City Transport Characteristics
• Low trip lengths
• Low number of trips
• Modal shift from Private Car Use to Public transport, Walking and
Cycling
• High motorised-vehicle occupancy level
• Low Car ownership
Effects of Compact City Characteristics
on Transport Energy Efficiency
September 1, 2013
Page 6
Topics
– Introduction
• Transport Energy Efficiency
• Compact City
– 1. Is the Compact City idea valid?
– 2. What are the best indicators of the Transport Energy
Efficiency?
– 3. How do we compare between schemes?
Effects of Compact City Characteristics on
Transport Energy Efficiency
September 1, 2013
Page 7
Data
– Millennium Cities Database for Sustainable Transport (2001) by UITP
Transport Energy Efficiency
Var0 Annual energy consumption for passenger transport per inhabitant (at source)
Urban Density
Var1 Urban Population Density
Five Compact City Characteristics:
1. Low trip length
Var2 Average distance of a mechanised trip
2. Low number of trips
Var3 Daily trips per inhabitant
3. Modal shift from private car use to public transport and non motorised modes such as walking and cycling
Var4 Percentage of daily trips on foot and bicycle
Var5 Percentage of daily trips by private motorised modes
Var6 Percentage of daily trips by public transport
4. High motorised-vehicle occupancy level
Var7 Average public transport place occupancy rate
5. Low car ownership;
Var8 Passenger vehicles per thousand inhabitants
(For the use of energy forecast model)
Var9 GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per habitant
Effects of Compact City Characteristics
on Transport Energy Efficiency
September 1, 2013
Page 8
Data Verification
Effects of Compact City Characteristics
on Transport Energy Efficiency
September 1, 2013
Page 9
Do they all valid? Yes, as expected.
Correlation with Transport Energy Efficiency:
Var0: Annual energy consumption for passenger transport per inhabitant (at source)
Correlation Coefficient
Significant Level
-0.389
0.007
+0.505
0.001
+0.373
0.010
Var4: Percentage of daily trips on foot and by bicycle
-0.393
0.006
Var5: Percentage of daily trips by private motorised modes
+0.618
0.000
Var6: Percentage of daily trips by public transport
-0.395
0.006
-0.307
0.036
+0.317
0.030
+0.522
0.000
Urban Density:
Var1: Urban population density (persons/ha)
Trip Length:
Var2: Average distance of a daily mechanised trip (Km)
Number of Trips:
Var3: Daily trips per inhabitant
Modal Shift:
Public Transport Efficiency:
Var7: Average public transport place occupancy rate
(passenger kilometres / place kilometres)
Car Ownership
Var8: Passenger cars per thousand inhabitants
(For the use of energy forecast model)
Var9: GDP per inhabitant *
Effects of Compact City Characteristics
on Transport Energy Efficiency
September 1, 2013
Page 10
Topics
– Introduction
• Transport Energy Efficiency
• Compact City
– 1. Is the Compact City idea valid?
– 2. What are the best indicators of the Transport Energy
Efficiency?
– 3. How do we compare between schemes?
Effects of Compact City Characteristics on
Transport Energy Efficiency
September 1, 2013
Page 11
Construct a forecast model
with
Y:
Xi:
Var0
Var1-Var9
– Start by inputting all the variables
• Urban Population Density
• Five Compact City Transport Characteristics
• GDP per inhabitant
– Criteria of eliminating the unnecessary factors
• Significance
• Collinearity, VIF
Effects of Compact City Characteristics
on Transport Energy Efficiency
5%
4
September 1, 2013
Page 12
Elimination of variables
Private
Car Modal
Share
Effects of Compact City Characteristics
on Transport Energy Efficiency
September 1, 2013
GDP per
inhabitant
Page 13
Urban
Population
Density
Potential Explanation
• The AVERAGE value does not explain the entire
Compact City concept
Effects of Compact City Characteristics
on Transport Energy Efficiency
September 1, 2013
Page 14
Final Equation (By SPSS)
Variables
Var2: Average Distance of a daily mechanised trip (km)
Var3: Daily trips per inhabitant
Var4: Percentage of daily trips on foot and by bicycle
Var6: Percentage of daily trips by public transport
Var7: Average public transport place occupancy rate (passenger kilometres / place kilometres)
Var8: Passenger cars per thousand inhabitants
– The Five main Compact City Transport Characteristics
are the best indicators of transport energy efficiency
Effects of Compact City Characteristics
on Transport Energy Efficiency
September 1, 2013
Page 15
Topics
– Introduction
• Transport Energy Efficiency
• Compact City
– 1. Is the Compact City idea valid?
– 2. Which characteristics are the best indicators of the
Transport Energy Efficiency?
– 3. How do we compare between schemes?
Effects of Compact City Characteristics on
Transport Energy Efficiency
September 1, 2013
Page 16
Elasticities
Variables
Elasticities
Var2: Average Distance of a daily mechanised trip (km)
+0.980
Var3: Daily trips per inhabitant
+0.899
Var4: Percentage of daily trips on foot and by bicycle
-0.326
Var6: Percentage of daily trips by public transport
-0.086
Var7: Average public transport place occupancy rate (passenger kilometres / place kilometres)
-0.200
Var8: Passenger cars per thousand inhabitants
+0.186
1%
in Daily trips per inhabitant
0.899%
in transport energy consumption per inhabitant
Effects of Compact City Characteristics
on Transport Energy Efficiency
September 1, 2013
Page 17
Choice
– Compare Scheme A & Scheme B
A
Construction of
cycle lane
B
+1%
on cycling modal
share
Subsidisation on
public transport
+3%
on public transport
modal share
Elasticities
Impact on Transport Energy Consumption
Var4: Percentage of daily trips on foot and by bicycle
-0.326
Var6: Percentage of daily trips by public transport
-0.086
Policy A: -0.326*1%=-0.326%
Policy B: -0.086*3%=-0.258%
Variables
– Policy A would be more favourable on the transport
energy efficiency aspect
Effects of Compact City Characteristics
on Transport Energy Efficiency
September 1, 2013
Page 18
Summary
– 1. Is the Compact City idea valid?
Yes
– 2. Which characteristics are the best indicators of the
Transport Energy Efficiency?
The five main Compact City Characteristics
•
•
•
•
•
Low trip lengths
Low number of trips
Modal shift from Private Car Use to Public transport, Walking and Cycling
High motorised-vehicle occupancy level
Low Car ownership
– 3. How do we rank between schemes?
Comparison using Elasticities
Effects of Compact City Characteristics on
Transport Energy Efficiency
September 1, 2013
Page 19
Thank You
[email protected]
September 1, 2013