Eieci:ior~Ccmmlssicn of In,dia
.NAME OF THE NEWSPAPER
THE INDIAN EXPRESS
.9 Ah ZG',~_
1:,
DATE:
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~Atal Modi vs Rajiv Rahul
HE conclusion in last
Saturday's National
Interest ('Still Mandai, Still Mandir', IE,
March 2, http://goo.gl/ONVud)
that India now waits for somebody to pull his forces out of the
trenches and break the twodecade stalemate in politics with
a big new idea, has brought forth
some obvious questions: Who is
that likely to be? What can be
some such ideas? And what if
the same stalemate continues?
The fir t and the third are easier
SHEKHAR GUPTA
to answer. Only two leaders
have the strength, appeal and
political wherewithal to break
men do not care. They would
tion, post-elections. That bethis stalemate: Rahul Gandhi
came possible in the nineties beand Narendra
Modi. And
prefer minimalistic realism to
anything adventurous, risky, gocause Atal Bihari Vajpayee's inof course, it will be a most fun
clusive and non-threatening
But will Rahul
election if they decided to do so for-broke.
leadership won over, at least in
Gandhi set the bar that low?
and locked horns in a big ideas
crucial electoral regions, allies
campaign.
There is also a lesson here for
those in the BJp, particularly the
that would have normally stayed
The third question, well, you
semi-intellectual types who work
away from a leadership of the
ask any Congress leader and he
will answer it with a smugness
Listen to the busybody apparatchiks and mandarins
that comes from two terms in
power and the old TINA (There
who dominate the Congress'stop echelons: We can
Is No Alternative) arrogance. If
afford to lose 50, 60 or even 70 seats from 2009 and
the stalemate continues, the
still retain power. There is merit in their cynical
election will surely be fought on
arithmetic. What is 200 for the BJPis 140 for them,
old issues, or mainly identity,
which suits the Congress. It is a
because they are likely to be acceptable to many more
truism confirmed by the general
allies. But there is one pre-requisite: the election must
pattern of our state and national
be trapped in tired old issues. New ideas must be kept
elections since 1989, and was
out. Retaining power, howsoever diminished, is better
even reaffirmed in Obama's reelection last year, that in a dithan risking losing it. It also follows that sucha weak
verse society, in an election decoalition will preclude a Rahul Gandhi prime
fined by identity, the sum of all
ministership in 2014. The Congressmen do not care. But
insecure and united minorities
will Rahul Gandhi set the bar that low?
is often greater than the power of
a usually divided majority. But ~-----~--.------------'
while such a stale campaign may
again bring some kind of a UPA
to power, it is more likely to resemble 2004.
T
Can each re-invent,
re-Iaunch himself? Only
then will 2014 be the
big ideas campaign
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Electiofl Cemmlssion of India
.NAME Of THE NEWSPAPER
HE Congress has been in
power politics much
longer than any of its rivals, So it is more inclined to be
satisfied with minimalistic possibilities as long as it stays in
power. That is what you would
often hear from the busybody
apparatchiks and mandarins
who dominate its top echelons
(only four of the current 19member CWC are Lok Sabha
members, including Sonia and
Rahul; of the rest, 9 are Rajya
Sabha members,S former MPs,
one ex-MLA): We can afford to
lose 50, 60, or even 70 seats from
2009 and still retain power.
There is merit in their cynical
arithmetic. What is 200 for the
BJP is 140 for them, because
they are likelyto be acceptable to
many more allies. But there is
one pre-requisite here: the election must be trapped in tired old
issues, identity and social justice.
New ideas must be kept out. Retaining power, howsoever diminished, isbetter than risking losing
it. It also follows that such a weak
coalition will totally preclude a
Rahul Gandhi prime ministership in 2014. But the Congress-
T
I .
rt
_1
THE INDIAN EXPRESS
its fringes. They have already declared a Modi victory. Just let
Modi be our prime ministerial
candidate, they say, it will polarise the electorate and we will
win. There may be some merit
in that, given that a Hindu upsurge post-1992 had given the
party Uttar Pradesh and finally
power in Delhi. But 2014 is different. In any case, building a
Hindu right. L.K. Advani and
Vajpayee then complemented
each other: one divided to win,
the other subsequently charmed
to unite. The party no longer has
such talent.
HE onus, therefore, is on
Modi to do something
creative to break the
stalemate or status quo that suits
T
The BJPvoters love Modi. But he knows that won't be
enough. Elections are al not fought on the internet
and Twitter. He will have to widen his message,
consign dated grievances like appeas ment of
Muslims, fear of Pakistan, Christian conversions,
mandir, even terrorism, to cold storage. To put it
simply, to win, he has to change the game and for that,
he needs an entirely new approach from the one that
made him the unchallenged leader of Gujarat. In 2004,
aam aadmi of the Congress did not defeat the NDA's
India Shining. It was a case of Modi defeating
Vajpayee. Now, to get even with the Congress, his
challenge is to become the new Vajpayee.
temple can never have the same
oomph as breaking a mosque. So
this willbe a risky strategy. It will,
most likely, vindicate the Congress party's minimalists. Further, the rhetoric needed to fuel
such polarisation will make it impossible to build a ruling coali-
the Congress. His aggressive
style, lampooning of rivals,
choice of words, inflexion, delivery and sense of timing make
him one of our most impressive
orators in Hindi. But his message, so far, has only enthused
the faithful. The BJP voters love
Rahu1 Gandhi. He can let
things drift. He can presume he
has time, and settle for a derisked, "re-elect a truncated
UPX' approach. He knows n~w
that his original idea of red.1scovering voters where Indira
Gandhi found them has not
worked: those voters have eith~r moved on, or discovered
their own leaders. He has the
gift of youth and modernity and
a party more faithful to the
leader than any in the world,
and that includes the Chinese
communists. So he, too, can
build a new agenda around reformist
economics.
There
aren't many other issues left in
the run-up t02014. Both sides os
have the same view on terr.or, ,(
national security and foreign
policy. A secular versus com-
him. But he knows that won't be
enough. Elections are also n?t
fought on the internet a~d 1W1~ter. He will have to w1den.h1s
message, consign dated gnevances like appeasement of.M~slims fear of Pakistan, Christian
con~ersions, mandir, even terrorism, to cold storage.
.
Does he, then, have the intellectual depth and political sag~city to drop everything about him
that his fans love but the more
numerous others fear? Can he
'-build a fresh new agenda around
. growth, development, entrepreneurship, good governance,
equal opportunity and wealth
creation? Some of his recent
public speeches have sugges~ed
that, usual Congress-bashmg
apart he is trying to smoothen
his ruder edges. To put it simply,
to win, he has to change the
game, and for that, he needs an
entirely new approach from the
one that made him the unchallenged leader of ~ujarat. I have
often said that in 2004, aam
aadmi of the Congress did not
defeat the NDXs India Shining.It
was a case of Modi defeating Vajpayee. Now, to get even ~ith the
Congress, his challenge 1Sto become the new Vajpayee. It may
sound unrealistic, but it seems
now that he will givethis a shot.
Similar choices confront
•
munal approach takes him back
to the doldrums of 2004. But it
may be different if he talks
modern economics and invokes
the globalised confidence of
Rajiv Gandhi and Manmohan
Singh, rather th:m the great ~ut
now outdated ideas of Indira
and Nehru.
A stirring new election will
then have a Modi reinventing
himself as Vajpayee, a Rahul relaunching himself in the image
of Rajiv and Manmohan Singh,
both talking economic reform,
growth, governance, equality
and aspiration. Leave it, then,
. to the voter to decide who she
finds more convincing.