Cross Asset
Technical Vista
February 26, 2014
Important Disclaimer in page 2
Disclaimer
The information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we make no
representation or warranty, express or implied, with respect to the fairness, correctness, accuracy or completeness of such
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capacity. We therefore strongly suggest that recipients seek their own independent advice in relation to any investment,
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on assumptions that if altered can change the analyses or opinions expressed. Nothing contained herein shall constitute any
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Furthermore, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This communication is provided for information
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In addition, because this communication is a summary only it may not contain all material terms, and therefore this
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2
Risk Sentiment
Eurozone Risk Sentiment Index
US Risk Sentiment Index
0,6
0,6
Risk Appetite
Risk Appetite
0,35
0,35
0,1
0,1
-0,15
-0,15
-0,4
-0,4
-0,65
-0,65
-0,9
-0,9
-1,15
-1,15
Risk Aversion
Risk Aversion
2/14
10/13
6/13
2/13
10/12
6/12
2/12
10/11
6/11
2/11
10/10
6/10
2/10
10/09
6/09
2/09
10/08
2/14
10/13
6/13
2/13
10/12
6/12
2/12
10/11
6/11
2/11
10/10
6/10
2/10
10/09
6/09
2/09
10/08
6/08
6/08
-1,4
-1,4
Source: Bloomberg, International Markets Analysis

Looking into the US & Eurozone markets, no major change of appetite for risk is detected.

Risk sentiment is supported by the expectation that the ECB may take extra monetary easing measures (next
meeting: March 6).

The likelihood that the Fed will continue to reduce the size of the asset buying programme, along with turmoil
in some emerging markets, are considered as the main worries going forward.
3
EUR/USD



Τhe daily MACD points to upside bias for EUR/USD in the short term. Other indicators such as ADX/DMI do not
confirm continuation of the upwards move, as they signal range trading.
Resistance is placed at the area of $1.3820-30 (21 days Bollinger upper bound and 21 weeks Bollinger upper
bound) and at $1.3890 (27/12/13 high).
Support is found at $1.3660 (55 DMA), at $1.3430 (200 DMA) and at the area of $1.3300 (7/11/13 low).
4
USD/JPY



USD/JPY is correcting in the short term.
Support is placed at the area of ¥100.20 (200 days MA) and at ¥98.70 area (76.4% Fibonacci retracement: ¥96.57
– ¥105.41).
Resistance at the area of ¥103.40 (55 days MA) and at the area of ¥105.50 (2/1/14 high & Fibonacci retracement
61.8%: ¥124.10- ¥75.35).
5
EUR/JPY



The upwards mid-term trend for EUR/JPY remains in place as indicated by weekly ADX/DMI. However,
main short term indicators signal range trading for the pair.
Resistance at the area of ¥142.00 (Bollinger Bands 21 days upper bound) and at ¥145.70 (27/12/13 high).
Support levels at the area of ¥138.70 (12/2/14 low) and at ¥136.20 (4/2/14 low).
6
GBP/USD
Weekly, data



GBP/USD remains in strong upwards trend. However, the pair is approaching overbought territory as the 9
weeks RSI is close to 70 area.
Resistance levels are found at $1.6823 (17/2/14 high) and at the area of $1.7040 (5/8/09 high).
Support is placed at the area of $1.6470 (55 DMA) and at the area of $1.6250 (5/2/14 low).
7
EUR/GBP



EUR/GBP is still in range trading in the short term (£0.8160 – £0.8350). In the medium term, the downwards trend
remains in place.
Resistance levels are found at the area of £0.8350 (upper Bollinger band, 6/2/14 high & medium term downwards
trend line) and at £0.8440 (200 DMA).
Support found at the area of £0.8160 (17/2/14 low and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement: £0.7755 – £0.8815) and at
£0.8082 (1/1/13 low).
8
EUR/CHF



EUR/CHF is in downwards trend in the short term, as indicated by DMI and MAs crossovers. The pair remains in
range trading (1.2100 – 1.2450 CHF) in the medium term.
Support at the area of 1.2167 CHF (17/12/13 low) and at 1.2130 CHF (8/4/13 low).
Resistance is found at the area of 1.2260 CHF (12/2/14 high & 55 DMA) and at the area of 1.2395 CHF (8/1/14 high).
9
Light Crude Oil (WTI) – 1st Month Future



WTI is trying to correct downwards, after posting a 4-month high ($103.80/brl) on February 19. Crude oil is
in range trading in the medium term.
Resistance levels are placed at $104.20/brl (61.8% Fibonacci retracement: $112.24 – $91.24) and at $106.46
(20/9/13 high).
Support is found at the area of $99.80/brl (200 DMA) and at the area of $97.70/brl (55 DMA).
10
Spot Gold



Gold spot price is trending upwards, after posting year to date increase of 11%. However, gold price has
reached overbought area (RSI 9-day: 77).
Resistance levels are placed at the area of $1,375/oz (76.4% Fibonacci retracement: $1,433.83 - $1,1182.52 &
19/9/13 high) and at $1,400.16/oz (5/9/13 high).
Support levels are found at the area of $1,300/oz (28/6/13 low) and at $1,255/oz (55 DMA).
11
S&P 500



The S&P 500 posted a new historic high (1,859) on February 24. The daily MACD points to continuation of
the upwards move.
RSI index with daily data (65) and weekly data (62) do not indicate overbought conditions yet.
Support levels at the area of 1,815 (55 days MA) and at 1,724 (200 days MA).
12
DAX



DAX index is in consolidation mode in the short term. Strong upwards trend in the medium term remains
intact.
Resistance level at 9,794.05 (historic high).
Support levels are found at the area of 9,430 (55 DMA) and at 8,980 area (38.2% Fibonacci retracement:
7,655.83 – 9,794.05 & 12/12/13 low).
13
US 10YR Government Bond Yield



US 10-year government bond yield is correcting. Looking at daily trend indicators such as the MACD, it seems
that the upwards move for the US 10-year government bond yield will likely resume.
Support at the area of 2.60% (200 days MA) and at the area of 2.50% (31/10/13 low).
Resistance at the area of 3.05% (2/1/14 high) and at 3.20% area (1/7/11 high & 76.4% Fibonacci retracement:
3.77% - 1.38%).
14
German 10YR Government Bond Yield



The German 10-year government bond is trading in range (1.60% - 1.80%) in the short term, with some bias to
the downside.
Support is placed at 1.60% area (5/2/14 low) and at the area of 1.51% (61.8% Fibonacci retracement: 1.16% –
2.087%).
Resistance levels are found at 1.74% (200 DMA) and at 1.80% area (29/1/14 high).
15
Correlation Matrix
S&P 500
DXY
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
EUR/CHF
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
Bund Fut.
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
C urrent
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
-0,0020
0,0503
0,7139
0,4076
-0,1243
0,5199
-0,2895
0,6887
-0,2710
0,1734
-0,1211
0,5128
0,3980
0,3038
0,4954
-0,4010
0,4212
-0,2811
0,1622
-0,1463
0,4102
0,1972
0,2853
0,4013
-0,2891
0,2765
-0,0720
-0,0432
0,0464
0,5960
0,5214
0,1444
0,4097
-0,3732
0,6082
-0,2223
-0,1482
0,1519
0,5459
0,3789
0,0529
0,4285
-0,1823
0,6009
-0,1412
-0,2146
0,2590
0,0237
0,0069
-0,2416
-0,1147
0,1776
0,1847
0,1185
-0,2642
0,3020
0,0052
0,0720
-0,2606
-0,0276
0,1886
0,2016
0,0263
-0,3601
0,2345
-0,3885
0,0193
-0,3423
-0,3883
0,1513
-0,2332
0,1549
-0,3737
0,3076
-0,3004
0,1119
-0,3287
-0,1866
0,1634
-0,0746
0,2957
-0,0828
0,1724
0,3295
0,2870
-0,0623
0,1532
-0,0998
0,4266
-0,1374
-0,2505
0,2546
0,1576
0,3497
-0,1899
0,0543
-0,0722
0,3094
-0,1179
-0,1514
0,0860
-0,1384
0,0550
-0,1154
-0,1227
0,0237
-0,0793
0,2175
-0,1181
0,0842
-0,0938
-0,0060
-0,0714
-0,0083
0,0783
-0,0299
0,0530
0,0309
-0,1198
-0,4668
-0,4140
-0,0653
-0,3415
0,2399
-0,5258
0,0613
0,2044
-0,2296
-0,2859
-0,3483
0,0784
-0,2606
0,0921
-0,4094
-0,1349
10Y US
2Y GE
Government Bonds (Change)
10Y GE
2Y UK
10Y UK
2Y JN
10Y JN
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
C urrent
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
0,4906
-0,4354
0,5024
0,1811
0,5346
0,4788
-0,4522
0,2212
-0,5118
0,4094
-0,2899
0,4690
-0,0811
0,4267
0,4440
-0,1744
0,2443
-0,5260
0,3617
-0,3516
0,5750
0,3367
0,5164
0,5820
-0,5147
0,3434
-0,6520
0,4969
-0,4497
0,5051
-0,0373
0,5432
0,4116
-0,3460
0,1712
-0,7178
0,0813
0,0033
0,3036
0,1010
0,1047
0,2534
-0,0782
0,2917
-0,7640
-0,0318
0,1757
0,3535
0,0947
0,0016
0,3470
0,0651
0,4422
-0,6442
0,2087
-0,1387
0,3043
0,1780
0,1697
0,1550
-0,2405
0,2066
-0,8810
0,3065
-0,1435
0,4381
-0,0141
0,2279
0,2560
-0,1134
0,3101
-0,9749
0,4806
-0,3479
0,4998
0,3336
0,4311
0,3894
-0,5101
0,2707
-0,6615
0,4210
-0,2744
0,4755
0,1760
0,3800
0,3551
-0,3730
0,2594
-0,6520
0,3949
-0,3140
0,4808
0,3105
0,3785
0,3235
-0,4697
0,2727
-0,8731
0,4724
-0,3707
0,5137
0,1430
0,4131
0,2498
-0,4264
0,2301
-0,8285
-0,2043
0,1302
-0,1886
-0,1984
-0,1992
-0,2239
0,2462
-0,1066
0,1495
-0,0177
-0,0788
-0,1951
-0,2428
-0,0135
-0,1855
0,1263
-0,2351
0,1380
-0,0278
0,0262
0,1873
0,0625
-0,0606
-0,0997
-0,0274
0,1971
-0,1007
-0,0132
-0,0029
0,1860
-0,0094
-0,0137
-0,0305
0,0124
0,1677
-0,1589
Significant negative correlation



Risk Aversion Index
RA EU
RA US
W TI
0,1256
-0,0782
0,7378
0,5280
0,3088
0,5669
-0,4671
0,6685
-0,2577
2Y US
DXY
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
EUR/CHF
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
Bund Fut.
60 Days (Percentage Change) Correlation Matrix
Equity Index
Commodities
Euro Stoxx 50 MSCI AC W orld
CRB
GOLD
Significant positive correlation
EUR/USD correlation with equities has diminished during the last 3 months.
GBP/USD exhibits positive correlation with stock prices.
USD/JPY positive correlation with equity markets & US government bond yield appear stronger.
Source: International Markets Analysis, Bloomberg
16
Trend Mapping
2,5
Reversing Up
Trending Up
2
Gold
1,5
S&P 500
EUR/USD
Dax
GBP/USD
EUR/JPY
1
WTI
Trend this month
0,5
USD/JPY
0
US 10‐Year Yield
EUR/GBP
‐0,5
‐1
German 10‐Year Yield
‐1,5
EUR/CHF
USD/CHF
‐2
Reversing Down
Treding Down
‐2,5
‐2,5
‐2
‐1,5
‐1
‐0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
Trend prior 1‐Month

Standardized divergence from 21-day moving average this month vs prior 1-month.
Source: International Markets Analysis, Bloomberg,
17
Trend Mapping
180
Reversing Up
Trending Up
140
Gold
100
S&P 500
Dax
EUR/JPY
EUR/USD
Trend this month
60
GBP/USD
WTI
USD/JPY
20
EUR/GBP
‐20
US 10‐Year Yield
‐60
USD/CHF
German 10‐Year Yield
EUR/CHF
‐100
‐140
Treding Down
‐180
‐180
‐140
Reversing Down
‐100
‐60
‐20
20
60
100
140
180
Trend prior 1‐Month

Commodity Channel Index level this month vs prior 1-month.
Source: International Markets Analysis, Bloomberg
18
Technical Analysis Synopsis
Fixed Income
Cmdties
Equities
FX
Last_Price
DXY Dollar Index
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF
S&P 500 INDEX
Euro Stoxx 50 Pr
DAX INDEX
CAC 40 INDEX
NIKKEI 225
Crude Oil 1m Future
GOLD SPOT $/OZ
Copper Furture 1M
*10Y GE Govt Yield
*2Y GE Govt Yield
*10Y US Govt Yield
*2Y US Govt Yield
*EUR 5 Yr IRS
*US 5 Yr IRS
80,15
1,3739
1,6685
102,38
0,8882
0,8234
140,65
1,2203
1845,12
3153,95
9689,76
4401,54
14970,97
102,18
1340,45
326,05
1,6550
0,1210
2,7103
0,3363
1,0190
1,6248
* Net Change to Date (b.p.)
Percent Change to Date
W eek
-0,12
-0,05
0,39
-0,14
0,06
-0,37
-0,18
0,04
0,48
0,72
0,34
0,49
0,71
-0,02
1,23
-0,93
-1,2
-0,1
-2,3
2,2
0,6
-2,0
Month
-1,44
1,88
1,47
0,32
-2,06
0,40
2,15
-0,17
3,51
4,66
4,12
5,69
0,38
4,81
7,72
1,99
-0,9
5,1
6,5
0,9
1,2
1,4
Year
0,13
-0,03
0,74
-2,87
-0,53
-0,79
-2,90
-0,59
-0,18
1,46
1,44
2,49
-8,10
3,82
11,19
-4,00
-27,9
-9,4
-32,0
-4,4
-24,6
-16,5
Monthly trend
Range
Upper
Range Trading 81,34
Range Trading 1,3820
Uptrend
Downtrend
Range Trading 0,9077
Range Trading 0,8336
Range Trading 141,91
Downtrend
Range Trading 1864
Range Trading 3200
Range Trading 9877
Uptrend
Range Trading 15355
Uptrend
Uptrend
Range Trading 330,72
Range Trading 1,7265
Range Trading 0,1414
Downtrend
Range Trading 0,3473
Downtrend
Range Trading 1,6767
Lower
79,74
1,3479
0,8829
0,8167
136,99
1739
2941
9068
14003
317,73
1,6235
0,0721
0,2896
1,5651
MA's
crossover
signal
Down
Down
Up
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
Up
Up
Up
Down
Up
Up
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
Overbought/
Oversold
Singal (Daily)
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
Overbought
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
MACD Signal
(Daily)
3 Months
trend
Down Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Down Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Down Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Range Trading
Range Trading
Uptrend
Range Trading
Range Trading
Range Trading
Uptrend
Range Trading
Uptrend
Range Trading
Uptrend
Range Trading
Range Trading
Range Trading
Uptrend
Range Trading
Range Trading
Range Trading
Uptrend
Range Trading
Range Trading
Uptrend
Source: Bloomberg, International Markets Analysis
19
Contact
210-326 8265
Panos Remoundos
Maria Koutouzi
Ioannis Kouravelos, CFA
Konstantinos Anathreptaκis
 [email protected]




[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
20