02 England (jr/d) 5/7/00 11:40 am Page 225 A dynamic analysis of windthrow of trees A.H. ENGLAND1, C.J. BAKER2 AND S.E.T. SAUNDERSON1 1 Division 2 School of Theoretical Mechanics, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England of Civil Engineering, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, England Summary This paper considers the dynamics of the tipping of a tree due to a gust of wind superimposed on a steady wind. The resistance of the root system to the rotational motion of the tree is known from tree-pulling experiments. A gust of wind generates an impulsive load on the system and hence the dynamics of the tree may be modelled. An empirical formula which relates the speed of a gust of wind and its duration to the mean wind speed is used to determine the mean wind speed necessary to overturn a tree. Realistic mean wind speeds are found for trees such as Sitka spruce. Notation cD E Fm(u0) – Fm GV g h I0 – I0 mT() mR() M0 Mm – Mm Mg u0 û vn Wm r Non-dimensional drag coefficient Young’s modulus for the tree Moment generated at the base by wind of speed u0 Non-dimensional moment Fm(u0)/M0 Gust factor û/u0 Acceleration due to gravity Height of the tree Moment of inertia of the tree about its base Non-dimensional moment of inertia I0m/M02 Tipping moment at the base Resisting moment at the base Resisting moment at = 0 Maximum resisting moment Non-dimensional moment Mm/M0 Tipping moment due to a gust Constant horizontal wind speed Extreme wind speed Wind speed normal to the tree Moment at the base due to the weight of the tree when = 90° Scaled angle of inclination ( = /m) Scaling parameter defined by equation (29) Density of the trunk © Institute of Chartered Foresters, 2000 Forestry, Vol. 73, No. 3, 2000 02 England (jr/d) 5/7/00 11:40 am 226 a /u f m 0 Page 226 F O R E S T RY Density of the air Turbulence intensity of the wind Short time interval Time interval for filtering the time series Angle of inclination of the tree to the vertical Angle at which the maximum resistance occurs Angular velocity of the tree Initial angular velocity Introduction The understanding of the phenomenon of tree fall in high winds is a problem of some considerable practical importance that has been investigated extensively in the past from a number of different viewpoints – field experiments of both tree behaviour in high winds and tree rooting behaviour, wind tunnel experiments of model canopies, laboratory testing to obtain the mechanical properties of trees and parts of trees and so on. The interested reader is referred to Coutts and Grace (1995) for details of work in this field. One area of work that has not been considered in any great detail to date has been the mathematical modelling of tree behaviour in high winds. Such work is potentially of some use in providing a coherent framework for the consideration of field and laboratory results, and for the deeper understanding of the problem. Peltola (1995) modelled Scots pines as single beams in the ground and considered their stability in steady wind conditions, making calculations of the wind speeds necessary for trees to blow over. Gardiner (1992) developed a model of plantation conifers that represented them as tapered cantilever beams, with a lumped mass at 70 per cent of the tree height to allow for the presence of the canopy. He carried out a dynamic analysis of the system to obtain the natural frequencies, and the mean and fluctuating displacements. Very recently Kerzenmacher and Gardiner (1998) examined the dynamic response of a spruce tree to the wind. Baker (1995) developed a model of trees and crops based on a lumped mass on top of a weightless elastic stem, and through a frequency domain approach was able to calculate tree and crop failure wind speeds for different ground and meteorological conditions. Finnegan and Mulhearn (1978) used a similar approach to develop scaling criteria for the wind tunnel testing of model crops. Blackwell et al. (1990) developed a model of the root system of Picea sitchensis, by modelling the various components of root plate resistance as simple mechanical systems, and investigating the behaviour of this model to a dynamic input. Papesch (1974) gave a simplified theoretical analysis of the factors that influence the windthrow of trees. These contributions being noted, however, it would seem that there is a need for a model of tree behaviour in high winds that integrates the below and above ground components in a logical way, and more adequately models the dynamic behaviour of the complex system. Saunderson (1997), in the course of his doctoral study, has developed detailed mathematical models of a number of aspects of the aerodynamic loading of trees. The dynamic behaviour of a Sitka spruce in high winds has been considered by Saunderson et al. (1999). The present paper considers the windthrow of an isolated tree due to a steady wind and also due to a gusting wind. Realistic wind speeds are predicted by regarding the tree as a rigid body which rotates by the tilting of its root plate. Some implications of this idealization are discussed in the last section. Other papers concerning the vibrations of a branched tree and the modelling of the root plate of a tree are in preparation (see Saunderson et al., 1999). Dynamic analysis When the wind acts on a tree the aerodynamic forces on its trunk and branches generate a tipping moment at its base which is resisted by the moments generated by the root base. If we denote the tipping moment by mT () and the resisting moment by mR () and we suppose the tree can be modelled as a rigid body, then the equation of motion of the tree is I0(t) = mT () – mR () (1) 02 England (jr/d) 5/7/00 11:40 am Page 227 A D Y N A M I C A N A LY S I S O F W I N D T H R O W O F T R E E S where I0 is the moment of inertia of the tree about its base and is the angle of inclination of the tree to the vertical. Coutts (1986) has measured the resisting moment of the root base for Picea sitchensis and found that it depends on the resistance of the hinge at the base of the trunk, the soil tension, the soil shear, the strength of the windward roots, the weight of the root–soil plate and so on, giving rise to a graph of the form shown in Figure 1 (see also Blackwell et al., 1990). This 227 experiments. Note that the resistance grows rapidly for very small values of , reaches a maximum between 2° and 5° and drops to about 50 per cent of its maximum value at about 10° . For the purpose of this paper we shall model the resisting moment by a quadratic curve which has its maximum value of Mm at the point = m and has the intercept mR(0) = M0 at = 0 (see Figure 2). Hence the model for mR() is mR() = Mm – (Mm – M0)( – m)2/m2 (2) Note that the very rapidly rising part of the resisting moment curve over the range between 0° and 0.5° on Figure 1 has been replaced by a curve which intersects the axes at the point (0, M0). Steady wind case Figure 1. Total resisting moment as a function of the angle of deflection. shows the combined resisting moment as a function of the angle of inclination to the vertical. This curve is typical of many found in tree-pulling The aerodynamic drag on an element of the tree is proportional to vn2dA where vn is the component of the velocity of the wind normal to the element and dA is the area of the exposed crosssection. Let us suppose the wind has a constant horizontal velocity u0. If we denote by Fm(u0) the moment generated at the base of the tree by the drag due to this particular wind when the tree is vertical, then this moment will be reduced to Fm(u0) cos2 when the tree is inclined at angle to the vertical. This is because the normal component of the wind to the inclined tree depends on cos . In addition, there will be a tipping moment proportional to the weight of the tree Figure 2. The model for the resisting moment mR(). 02 England (jr/d) 5/7/00 11:40 am Page 228 228 F O R E S T RY due to the displacement of its centre of gravity. The moment at the base of the tree due to the rotation of the tree has the form Wm sin , where Wm may be thought of as the moment generated at the base when the tree is rotated to a horizontal position. However, since the tree bends under the wind loading, there is an additional contribution to the moment Fm(u0) due to the displaced mass of the tree. This contribution is evaluated later. Hence the equation of motion has the form I0(t) = Fm(u0) cos2 + Wm sin – Mm + (Mm – M0) (1 – /m)2 (3) where is measured in radians. As the resistance of the roots is small when is greater than about 10° (or 0.17 radians), we can make the small angle approximations that sin , cos 1 – 2 and reduce the equation of motion to (4) for small values of . The angular acceleration (t) can be expressed in terms of the angular velocity = (t) in the form (t) = (t) = d/d. Hence equation (4) becomes 2(Mm – M0) d I0—– = Fm(u0) – M0 + Wm – ————— d m Mm – M0 + ————– – Fm(u0) 2 2m (5) This equation may be integrated to yield the kinetic energy of rotation of the tree, and hence the angular velocity of the tree, as a function of = m (8) I02 = m[Fm(u0) – M0 – (Mm – M0) + (Mm – M0)2] (9) which yields on neglecting terms of order m2. Now, if the right-hand side of equation (9) remains positive for positive values of and does not drop to zero, the angular velocity will stay positive and the tree will continue to tip as increases. As the signs of the coefficients in equation (9) are known, it can be shown that the cubic (9) has the shape of the curves shown on Figure 3. The condition that (9) has no positive roots reduces to (Mm – M0)2 < (Fm(u0) – M0)(Mm – M0) I0(t) = Fm(u0)(1 – 2) + Wm – Mm + (Mm – M0)(1 – /m)2 equation (7) only holds when is of the same order as m, so we put or Fm(u0) > (3Mm + M0) (10) Windthrow will occur when the wind speed u0 is sufficiently large for the bending moment Fm(u0) to satisfy the inequality (10). Let us model the trunk of the tree as a uniform circular cylinder of radius r0 and height h. Then the drag on an element of height dy is acDr0u02 dy where a is the density of air, cD is the nondimensional drag coefficient (related to the trunk Mm – M0 I02 = (Fm(u0) – M0) + Wm – ————– 2 m Mm – M0 + ————– – Fm(u0) 3 + C 2m (6) for small angles . The condition that the tree starts tipping with a zero angular velocity when is zero gives C = 0. Hence Mm – M0 I02 = (Fm(u) – M0) + Wm – ————– m Mm – M0 + ————– – Fm(u) 2 2m (7) The angle m is small (m < 0.1 radians) and Figure 3. Graph of equation (9); (i) when condition (10) is not satisfied, (ii) when condition (10) is satisfied. 02 England (jr/d) 5/7/00 11:40 am Page 229 A D Y N A M I C A N A LY S I S O F W I N D T H R O W O F T R E E S radius of the tree) and u0 is the constant (mean) wind speed acting on the tree. Hence the moment at the base due to the drag over an isolated tree is Fm(u0) = h acDr0 u02y dy = acDr0h2u02 (11) 0 Dr B.A. Gardiner has pointed out that, since the tree bends under the wind loading, there is an additional contribution to the moment Fm(u0) due to the displaced mass of the tree. The extra contribution has the effect of multiplying the righthand side of equation (11) by 1 + where = 0.4gh3/(Er02), where the tree has a density , a Young’s modulus E and the tree is bent by a uniform wind. We can either take this term into account explicitly or regard the drag coefficient cD in equation (11) as the actual drag coefficient enhanced by the factor 1 + . We adopt the latter approach and discuss the effect of this enhanced moment when examining the sensitivity of the solution in the sensitivity analysis section. Note that the model assumes a trunk of constant radius with a constant drag coefficient. The effect of the canopy is taken into account by an enhanced drag coefficient. Gardiner (1989) has shown for his standard tree (with h = 15 and r0 = 0.0825) in a plantation that the drag is 161 kg in a wind at 20 m s–1. This corresponds to an equivalent drag coefficient cD of 0.27. However, the drag on an isolated tree will be greater than that on a plantation tree and it seems reasonable to take the equivalent drag coefficient to be 0.6 for the purposes of this calculation. Mayhead (1973) in a series of wind tunnel tests on a range of isolated trees has calculated the true drag coefficients and found them to decrease from about 0.7 with increasing wind speed. He proposed a drag coefficient of 0.35 for use in critical height determinations for Sitka spruce. This coefficient has, of course, to be multiplied by the exposed cross-sectional area of the canopy and the height of the centre of pressure to evaluate the actual moment acting at the base. As the crosssectional area for the present model is based on the dimensions of the trunk and the centre of pressure is at h, it seems sensible to select a larger drag coefficient than that proposed by Mayhead. The sensitivity of results to the value of the turning moment is examined in the sensitivity analysis section. Coutts (1986) has performed winching tests on 229 a range of Sitka spruce trees and Blackwell et al. (1990) have modelled the root anchorage of a shallow-rooted tree of this type and calibrated it with Coutts’ results. Figure 4 is taken from their paper. The values for the resisting moment may be estimated to be M0 = 8 kNm, Mm = 12.8 kNm, m = 2.5° = 0.044 rads (12) and these correspond to trees with the following (approximate) dimensions h = 19 m, r0 = 0.1 m, = 900 kgm–3, (13) a = 1.2 kgm–3, cD = 0.6. Coutts (1986) has commented on the variability of the root-strength of trees indicating that the uprooting moments for trees of this size and type can vary from 10 to 50 kNm. The numbers selected correspond to the lower end of this scale. If we model the tree as a uniform cylinder of density then its moment of inertia about its base is I0 = r02h3. (14) It should be noted that this does not take into account the moment of inertia of the root plate or the branches of the tree. These considerations indicate that the estimates we make of the wind speed to induce windthrow will yield underestimates of the critical wind speed for failure, assuming the turning moment is broadly correct. The sensitivity analysis section considers the effect of increasing I0 from the value given in equation (14). The minimum constant wind speed to cause windthrow is given by acDr0h2u02 = (3Mm + M0) (15) which yields, for this model u0 = 29.9 m s–1 (16) or approximately 66 m.p.h., which agrees well with the suggestion by Mayhead (1973) that windthrow is likely to occur at about this speed. It is convenient at this stage to estimate the length of time it will take for a tree to start to topple. The angular velocity = d/dt is given by equation (9), and hence the length of time it takes the tree to fall from the vertical to the angle = m (at which the root resistance is greatest) is 02 England (jr/d) 5/7/00 11:40 am Page 230 230 F O R E S T RY Figure 4. Blackwell, Rennolls and Coutts’ model of root resistance: a, net total resistive turning moment; b, tension in roots; c, weight of root–soil plate; d, bending of leeside roots; e, tension in soil; f, weight of stem and crown. I0m ————— 2(M – M ) m 1 0 3 more likely to be thrown by strong gusts of wind superimposed on a wind of constant velocity. This will be considered in the next section. 0 Fm(u0) – M0 – 2 + ————— Mm – M0 – d (17) This integral can be evaluated numerically for wind speeds greater than the critical wind speed of 29.9 m s–1. At the critical wind speed it will take less than 2 s for the tree to reach the angle m (for the numerical values given in equations (13) and (14)) and about 4.5 s for the tree to reach the angle where the angular velocity takes its minimum value. Hence, in summary, if the tree is subject to a constant wind which generates a moment Fm(u0) at the base of the tree which satisfies the condition (10), then the tree will be overturned due to this constant wind. Obviously this is a rather artificial situation and trees are much Impulsive loading Suppose the tree receives a strong gust of wind which lasts for a very short time and thereafter a wind of constant velocity u0 acts on the tree generating the constant moment Fm(u0) at the base of the tree. Suppose that the impulsive moment generated at the base of the tree by the gust of wind is Mg and the reaction of the root base generates the impulsive moment M0 . Then the tree experiences the overall impulsive moment (Mg – M0) over a very short time interval . If we model the effect of the gust as an impulsive moment of this magnitude that acts at the time 02 England (jr/d) 5/7/00 11:40 am Page 231 A D Y N A M I C A N A LY S I S O F W I N D T H R O W O F T R E E S t = 0, then the jump in the angular momentum of the tree is [I0]0+ 0– = (Mg – M0) so that the tree acquires the angular velocity 0 = (Mg – M0)/I0 (18) at the time t = 0+. The subsequent motion of the tree is governed by the constant velocity case, so that the equation of motion (4) has the solution (6), namely Mm – M0 I02 = (Fm(u0) – M0) + Wm – ————– 2 m Mm – M0 + ————– – Fm(u0) 3 + C 2m (19) where C is a constant of integration. As the tree has gained the angular velocity 0 at the time t = 0+ due to the gust, C must be chosen to have the value I002 and hence the kinetic energy is Mm – M0 I02 = (Fm(u0) – M0) + Wm – ————– 2 m Mm – M0 2 3+ (M – M )2 — (20) + ————– – F (u ) m 0 g 0 2m I0 Now, as the impulse that the tree receives is due to a gust, then the moment Mg on the tree that this gust generates will depend on the square of the extreme -second wind speed. If we denote the ratio of the extreme wind speed û to the steady wind speed u0 by the gust factor GV = û/u0 (21) 231 cubic in has the general form shown in Figure 5. The stationary points are found by setting the gradient of (23) to zero, which yields a quadratic equation for . The position of the local minimum (at = r) corresponds to the highest root of [(Mm – M0)2 – 2(Mm – M0) + Fm(u0) – M0 = 0] which is at the position = r where Mm – Fm(u0) r = 1 + —————— Mm – M0 (24) Hence the angular velocity will remain non-zero if the right-hand side of equation (23) is positive at the minimum point = r, i.e. if 2I0 (Mm – M0)m M0 GV2 > ——— + ———————— (2r – 3)2r 2 3 Fm (u0) Fm(u0) (25) The square-root term (in (25)) remains real provided the position of the minimum r is greater than . From (24) this corresponds to the condition Fm(u0) < (3Mm + M0) (26) which is the complement of the condition (10). Condition (10) implied that if the wind velocity was large enough, then the tree would be blown over by the constant wind. Condition (26) indicates that if the constant wind alone is not sufficient to uproot the tree, then the tree will be overturned by a combination of the gust and the constant wind provided the gust factor GV is large then the moment Mg can be expressed in terms of the moment Fm(u0) due to the constant wind by Mg = Fm(u0) GV2 (22) Again, by putting = m and neglecting squared terms in m, the angular velocity (20) is given by I02 = [(Fm(u0) – M0) – (Mm – M0) + (Mm – M0)2]m 1 + —- [Fm(u0)G2V – M0]22 2I0 (23) As in the previous section, the right-hand side of equation (23) must remain positive for the tree to continue to tip. As the signs of all of the coefficients are known it can be confirmed that this Figure 5 Graph of the right-hand side of equation (23). 02 England (jr/d) 5/7/00 11:40 am Page 232 232 F O R E S T RY enough and the length of the gust long enough to satisfy condition (25). Note that condition (25) depends on the non-dimensional ratios of the moments Mm/M0, Fm(u0)/M0 and the quantity I0/M0 which has the dimension of time squared. Note also that the condition (25) is independent of the quantity Wm, the tipping moment due to the weight of the tree. If we define the nondimensional parameters by the following expressions – – Fm = Fm(u0)/M0, Mm = Mm/M0, – I 0 = I0m/M02 (27) then the gust factor for failure must satisfy 1 – – 2 GV2 > — – 1 + [ I 0 (Mm – 1)(2r – 3)r] Fm Graphs of û against the constant wind speed u0 for different values of are given on Figure 6. It will be seen that all of the curves terminate as u0 tends to the critical wind speed of 29.9 m s–1. The case where the gust velocity û is less than the constant wind speed u0 is of no practical interest, so we are concerned with the region of the graph above the line û = u0. It is also necessary to have an estimate of the time interval over which a gust will blow and this will clearly depend on the gust velocity. If an hour-long wind-velocity time series is divided into time steps of length f, then the maximum wind velocity û which can be expected to act for this time can be found, using an empirical expression due to Wieringa (1973), to be (28) where – – Mm – Fm r = 1 + ————— – Mm – 1 (29) These results are general and based only on the assumption that the resisting moment at the root base has the form given in equation (2), where m is small. The application of them to the case of a Sitka spruce modelled as a uniform cylinder is given in the next section. Mean wind speed failure criterion In the previous section the failure condition (28) was derived and found to depend on the nondimensional parameters defined in (27) and (29), which, in turn, are functions of the constant wind speed u0 and the duration of the gust. If we adopt the numerical values for a Sitka spruce which were used in equations (12) and (13) the non-dimensional parameters become – – – Fm = 1.62 u2010–3, Mm = 1.6, I 0 = 0.352 –2, r = 1 + (2.67 – 2.71 u2010–3) (30) Windthrow will take place provided the gust velocity û and its duration satisfy the inequality (28), which implies that windthrow is just possible if r û = 24.81 1 + 0.376 —(2r – 3) (31) Figure 6. The gust velocity required to cause windthrow as a function of the constant wind speed for gust durations of = 0.2, 0.5, 1, 2, 5, 10 s. 02 England (jr/d) 5/7/00 11:40 am Page 233 A D Y N A M I C A N A LY S I S O F W I N D T H R O W O F T R E E S û 3600 — ln ——— – = 1 + 0.42 — u u f (32) where /u is the turbulence intensity and u– is the mean wind speed (which we have taken to be the constant wind speed u0 in this paper). For an isolated tree /u is approximately 0.2 with higher values in a forest environment. Our initial calculations are based on a turbulence intensity of 0.2 and results for a higher turbulence intensity are given later. It must be noted that the f used in this expression is not strictly the same as , the duration of the gust. More sophisticated expressions than (32) are available (see Baker (1995)) but an empirical formula such as (32) provides an adequate model for this analysis. Plotting this expression for various values of f will give a family of straight lines passing through the origin. The intersection of each line of this family with the corresponding curve given by equation (31) for 233 the same value of and f will produce a wind speed failure line as shown by the thick line on Figure 7. Values of the gust velocity û would not be expected to occur above this failure line. Alternatively we can eliminate the gust duration = f from equations (31) and (32) and solve numerically for û as a function of u0. The result of this calculation is shown on Figure 8 and has been plotted as the heavy line on Figure 7. It can be seen by inspection of these graphs that failure can occur at a minimum mean wind speed of about 17.7 m s–1 or 39 m.p.h. with a gust speed of about 27.5 m s–1 or 61 m.p.h., with a gust duration of about 5 s. Although a gust duration of 5 s seems a very short time to give an impulse to the tree, the time needed to tip the tree to its position of maximum resistance is of the order of 2 s. So, for consistency, we should look for gusts of shorter duration. A gust of speed 35.1 m s–1 (78 m.p.h.) of duration Figure 7. The mean wind speed failure line when the turbulence intensity is 0.2. 02 England (jr/d) 5/7/00 11:40 am 234 Page 234 F O R E S T RY Figure 8. The mean wind speed failure line with a turbulence intensity of 0.2. Gust duration: 1 s, 2 s, 5 s. 1 s superimposed on a wind speed of about 21 m s–1 or 46 m.p.h. will cause windthrow. In a more turbulent environment with a greater value of the turbulence intensity the straight lines on Figure 7 are steeper so that failure can occur at a lower mean wind speed. Repeating the calculation above with a turbulence intensity of 0.4 yields the graph in Figure 9. This indicates that failure can occur with a minimum mean wind speed of about 13.2 m s–1 with a gust speed of about 27.8 m s–1 for a duration of 5 s. Note that the gust speed is almost the same for both levels of turbulence intensity. A more conservative estimate based on the duration of 1 s yields the mean wind speed of 15.6 m s–1 (34.6 m.p.h.) approximately and a gust speed of 37 m s–1 (82 m.p.h.). Sensitivity analysis Although we have thought of the tree as a rigid cylindrical body, the analysis applies for any shape of body for which the wind loading is proportional to the wind velocity squared and generates a moment Fm about the base of the tree. The – – – non-dimensional quantities Fm, Mm, I 0 defined in (27) determine the mean wind speed for which windthrow is possible, as derived above. It is interesting to determine how sensitive this critical wind speed is to changes in these quantities. If each non-dimensional quantity in turn is multiplied by parameter p while keeping the others constant, the critical mean-wind speed for failure may be calculated as a function of the multiplier p, as p varies over a given range such as 0.5 p 1.5. To be explicit, the wind speed was calculated corresponding to a gust duration of 1 s which should yield a good approximation to the minimum wind speed. The results of these perturbations are shown in Figure 10. It will be seen that the critical wind – speed is largely independent of variations in Mm – and in I 0. This means that the results obtained are relatively insensitive to variations in the maximum reaction moment Mm, and the angle m at which it occurs. Similarly it is insensitive to the moment of inertia I0 and the duration of the wind gust. We have noted that the moment of inertia used in the calculation did not include any allowance for the presence of the root plate or the canopy, but the results indicate that the critical wind speed only increases by about 5 per cent when the value of I0 is increased by 50 per cent. The critical wind speed is quite sensitive to the – non-dimensional parameter Fm = Fm(u0)/M0. Hence the moment Fm(u0) generated by the wind and the initial reaction moment M0 generated by the root base need to be accurately estimated. A – variation of 10 per cent in Fm will produce a variation of about 5 per cent in the estimated critical wind speed. Hence if the reaction moment M0 of the root plate is increased by (say) 20 per cent, the – non-dimensional quantity Fm is decreased by 17 per cent and the critical wind speed necessary to cause windthrow is increased by about 8 per cent. Similarly the calculation rests on an estimated value of the equivalent drag coefficient cD as 0.6. If this is increased by 10 per cent, corresponding to a revised estimate of the moment due to the wind loading on the canopy, then the critical wind speed will be reduced by 5 per cent. It has been suggested that since the tree bends under the wind loading the extra moment due to 02 England (jr/d) 5/7/00 11:40 am Page 235 A D Y N A M I C A N A LY S I S O F W I N D T H R O W O F T R E E S 235 Figure 9. The mean wind speed failure line with a turbulence intensity of 0.4. the weight of the bent tree should be taken into account. Using the dimensions of the Sitka spruce given in equation (13), the moment is enhanced by a factor of 1.4. This factor results from modelling the tree as a uniform cylinder and is clearly an overestimate, since the weight distribution along the tree is not uniform. Alternatively, if the tapering stem model proposed by Gardiner (1989) is used, the enhancement factor due to the stem is 1.09. Gardiner has suggested the overall enhancement factor should be about 20 per cent which will reduce the critical mean wind speed to about 19 m s–1. This model depends directly upon the gust model introduced in the failure criterion section. If different aerodynamic gust models are introduced the calculations must be revised starting – from equations (28) and (29). If I 0 is fixed at 0.352 corresponding to a gust duration of = 1 s, the critical mean wind speed decreases with an increasing gust factor as shown in Figure 11. The wind speeds corresponding to Wieringa’s model with turbulence intensities of 0.2 and 0.4 are shown in the figure. Conclusion The behaviour of a tree under a strong aerodynamic loading is governed by the resistance of the root plate. Using a simple model of the root plate resistance, the steady wind speed to cause windthrow of the tree can be estimated. The effect of a gust on the tree has been modelled as an impulsive loading on the tree. This, together with a model of the gustiness of the wind, enables us to estimate the critical mean wind speed at which windthrow of trees is likely to occur. The results 02 England (jr/d) 236 5/7/00 11:40 am Page 236 F O R E S T RY – – – Figure 10. Variation of the critical mean wind speed due to changes in Fm, Mm and I 0. Figure 11. Graph of the critical–mean wind speed as a function of the gust factor for a constant value of the non-dimensional parameter I 0. TI is the turbulence intensity in Wieringa’s (1973) model. 02 England (jr/d) 5/7/00 11:40 am Page 237 A D Y N A M I C A N A LY S I S O F W I N D T H R O W O F T R E E S for an isolated Sitka spruce tree yield realistic wind speeds and depend on comparatively few non-dimensional parameters. 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