Geopolitical issues of new Arctic
Sea routes
A major consequence of climate change in the area
CAMILLE ESCUDÉ – SCIENCES PO PARIS
[email protected]
A revival of interest for the Arctic sea routes
At the end of 20th Century
- End of Cold War
- Effects of the global warming in
the Arctic
1979-2009 : the summer arctic ice cap lost 50
% half of her surface and 75% of her volume
A sea ice free summer Arctic?
End of the arctic summer ice cap :
- 2080? (IPCC, 2007)
- 2040? (IPCC, 2011)
- 2020? (Wang, M., Overland, J. (2009) « A sea ice
free summer Arctic within 30 years? »)
Arctic ocean free of ice during
several months
Arctic sea routes appear
On the map : significant distance saving for commercial
shipping
Some advantages
…
But too many obstacles yet
• Distance saving
• Unpredictible shipping conditions
• Political security
• Technical obstacles (lack of infrastructures…)
• Financial obstacles
escort, equipments, …)
(high taxes, ice-breakers
• Not compatible yet with the ‘just-in-time
logic’ of international trade
• Environmental risks
No ‘Arctic maritime highway’ (F. Lasserre)
+ Two very different Arctic sea routes!
The Northwest passage, an ice desert
• A frozen route most part of
year
• Until now, little politcal
interest
• No development plan, very
few infrastructures (ports, icebreakers)
• Very little traffic: only 120
complete crossing since 1906
The Northeast passage, a much more promising route
• A strategic route for USSR and Russia for a
Century
• An ice-free route most part of the year
• An essential transport axis for northern Russia
• A rising traffic due to ressources exploitation
8
6
4
2
0
1935 1940 1950 1960 1965 1970 1980 1987 1991 1994 1999 2001 2008
Yearly traffic (millions of t.)
Arctic routes not used yet for
international shipping BUT for:
- Ressources exploitation and routing
- Local service
- Growing tourism
- Fishing
3% 5%
17 %
15 %
Icebreaker
Tourism
Sailing
5%
Tugboat
Local service
Research
55 %
Nature of boats that did a partial or complete
transit in the Northwest passage in 2012
Arctic sea routes : what for a geopolitical ‘scramble’?
• Sovereignty claims (Canada, Russia)
• But a better geopolitical situation than 10 years ago
• Major cooperation initatives (Arctic Council)
• The Polar Code (IMO, November 2014)
‘covers the full range of design, construction, equipment, operational, training, search
and rescue and environmental protection matters that are relevant to ships operating in
arctic waters’
Camille Escudé - [email protected]