Belgrade Domestic Energy Model : Pathways to Space Heating
Energy Reduction
a
M. Kavgic ([email protected]), D. Mumovic
a, A.
Summerfield
b
a The
Bartlett School of Graduate Studies, University College London, Gower Street, WC1E 6BT London, UK
b The Energy Institute, University College London, Gower Street, WC1E 6BT London, UK
CIBSE Technical Symposium, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, UK, 11-12 April 2013
OBJECTIVES
•On-site survey-Temperature
To develop:
1. Physically based disaggregated bottom-up domestic energy model of the Belgrade
DH system
housing stock (BEDEM).
Individual central
heating
2. Explorative scenarios for reduction of the domestic space heating energy use by
Non-central heating
2030.
oMean external winter
temperature ~7C°.
METHODOLOGY
o High temperatures in
dwellings with DH system
lead to occupant frequent
window opening to provide
cooling.
BEDEM model form and structure:
Module 1
External data sources:
Stock stratification:
On-site survey:
Official statistics
Urban layout
2009/2010
Standards
Age
Temperature, RH
Research studies
Form
96 households (SE10%)
Space heating type (fuel)
 Living room, Bedroom
Questionnaire
Mean daily temperature profiles (95%CI) for: a) left - living room and b) bedroom
Module 2
•Validation
o~6% discrepancy between BEDEM predictions and top-down data.
o~4% discrepancy between BEDEM predictions and measured data.
Module 2
Base Model scenario and Validation:
Results and Uncertainty analyses:
 Base case year-2010
Local Sensitivity Analysis
Eight multi-zone archetypes using TRNSYS
Monte Carlo model
 Base Model scenario-no change to current trends
Official top-down data
District heating (DH) system measurements
• Uncertainty analyses
o Sensitivity analysis-Most influential input parameters on model output:
1. Temperature (Si,j = 1.15)
2. Space heating system efficiency (Si,j = -0.60)
3. External temperature (Si,j = -0.38)
4. U-window (Si,j = 0.23)
o Monte Carlo model-90% of the prediction fell within ±18.5% of the
mean, and 50% of the predictions were within ±8% of the mean.
Module 3
Explorative scenarios to 2030:
Demand 1 - ~40% of the stock refurbished to the energy class ‘D’(≤113kWh).
Results and
Uncertainty analysis:
Demand 2 - ~20% of the stock refurbished to the energy class ‘C’ (≤75kWh).
Monte Carlo model
Module 3
Supply - ~13% improvement in DH system efficiency.
Demand 2 and Supply - ~20% of the stock refurbished to the energy class
‘C’(≤75kWh) and 13% improvement in DH system efficiency.
• Explorative scenarios results by 2030 (95%CI)
RESULTS
Base Model 5803 GWh
Module 1
Demand 1 -13 %
• Housing stock stratification
Demand 2 -14 %
Supply
BELGRADE HOUSING STOCK
~ 600,000 households
~90% post-World War II buildings
Demand 2 and Supply
-19 %
SFH (~50%)
DH system
-13 %
Individual central
heating (gas, electricity,
solid fuels)
CONCLUSION
• BEDEM is the first domestic energy model in Serbia and as such has its
weaknesses, mainly due to the scarce data available.
• Due to their poor thermal performance, single-family houses and multi-storey
Non-central heating
(electricity)
Non-central heating
(electricity, solid fuels)
buildings 1946/70 are likely to provide the greatest energy savings, while having
the largest potential for application of various energy-efficiency measures.