DESERTEC: Solar Power from the Desert
Franz Trieb
DLR Stuttgart
September 2009
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Trans-Mediterranean High Voltage Direct Current Electricity Grid:
Interstate Highways for Renewable Electricity in EUMENA
EUMENA:
Europe
Middle East
North Africa
www.desertec.org
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Studies:
MED-CSP
TRANS-CSP
AQUA-CSP
Assessment of the renewable energy potential for
the sustainable supply of electricity and water in
50 countries of Europe, the Middle East and
North Africa taking into consideration the option of
Concentrating Solar Power (CSP).
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50 Countries in EUMENA analysed
Europe (EU)
Scandinavia
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
South-Eastern Europe
Western Asia
North Africa
Arabian Peninsula
Middle East & North Africa (MENA)
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Criteria for Sustainable Electricity Supply:
 Inexpensive
low electricity cost
no long term subsidies
 Secure
diversified and redundant supply
power on demand
based on inexhaustible resources
available or at least visible technology
capacities expandable in time
 Compatible
low pollution
climate protection
low risks for health and environment
fair access
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Portfolio of Energy Sources for Electricity:
 Coal, Lignite
 Oil, Gas
 Nuclear Fission, Fusion
 Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)
 Geothermal Power (Hot Dry Rock)
 Biomass
 Hydropower
 Wind Power
 Photovoltaic
 Wave / Tidal
ideally stored
primary energy
storable primary
energy
fluctuating
primary
energy
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Renewable Energy Technologies
Geothermal
Hydropower
Concentrating
Solar Power
Biomass
Tides
Waves
Photovoltaic
Wind Power
http://www.erneuerbare-energien.de/inhalt/36983/35338/
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Concentrating Solar Power
Parabolic Trough (PSA)
Up to 550 °C
Steam Turbines
Linear Fresnel (MAN/SPG)
Solar Tower (SNL)
over 1000 °C
Gas Turbines,
Engines
Dish-Stirling (SBP)
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Conventional Thermal
Power Power
Plant Plant
Principle of a Concentrating
Solar Thermal
Concentrating
Solar Collector
Field (Mirrors)
Solar
Heat
Fuel
Thermal
Power Cycle
(e.g. Steam
Turbine)
Thermal
Energy
Storage
Electricity
• concentrated, easily
storable solar thermal
energy as fuel saver
• spinning reserve
• firm capacity,
power on demand
Process Heat
• combined generation of
process heat for cooling,
industry, desalination, etc.
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ANDASOL 1, Guadix, Spain
(50 MW, 7 h Storage, 2009)
www.solarmillennium.de
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High Voltage Direct Current Transmission
Voltage:
Power:
Length:
Source:
± 800.000 Volt
6400 Megawatt
2070 km
Hydropower
http://www.abb.com
http://www.siemens.com
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Renewable Electricity Potential in Europe, Middle East & North Africa
Biomass (0-1)
Geothermal (0-1)
Solar (10-250)
Max
Min
Wind Energy (5-50)
Hydropower (0-50)
Electricity Yield
in GWh/km²/y
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Economic Renewable Electricity Potentials vs. Demand in EUMENA
16000
> 630000
Solar
Electricity in TWh/y
14000
Geothermal
12000
How Does a
Sustainable Mix
Look Like?
10000
Hydro
Wind
8000
Biomass
6000
Wave/Tide
Desalination
4000
MENA
2000
Europe
0
Potentials
Demand 2000
Demand 2050
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Installed Capacity vs. Peak Load in EUMENA
2400
2400 Photovoltaic
Installed Capacity [GW]
Wind Power
2000
2000 Geothermal
Hydropower
1600
1600 Biomass
1200
1200
Import/Export
Desalination
800
800
Tidal/Wave
CSP
Oil & Gas
Coal
400
0
2000
5000 h/a
2010
400
2000 h/a
2020
2030
2040
Nuclear
Firm Capacity
0
2050
Peak Load
Year
 100 % availability plus 25 % reserve capacity
www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp
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Firm Power Capacity based on Renewables and Fuel
(no fossil or nuclear base load supply)
60
Power Supply [GW]
50
40
30
20
10
0
25.6.
26.6.
27.6.
Combined Heat & Power
Import & Pump Storage
28.6.
29.6.
Domestic Renewables
Balancing Power (fossil)
30.6.
1.7.
Solar Import
Surplus
Hourly Model Germany 2050 (Brischke 2005)
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Availability and Redundancy
 Power on Demand by a Mix of Fluctuating and Balancing Sources
 Increased Number of Non-Correlated Energy Sources
 Increased Number and Reduced Average Size of Power Plants
 Increased Number of Supply Regions
 Additional HVDC Grid Infrastructure for Long-Distance Transfer
 Domestic Sources Dominate the Electricity Mix
 Non-depletable Sources Dominate the Electricity Mix
 Strategy is Based on Proven Technologies
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Carbon emissions of EUMENA power sector are reduced to 38 %
until 2050 in spite of a quickly growing demand
4000
Avoided
Import Solar
CO2-Emissions in Mt/y
3500
Photovoltaics
3000
Wind
2500
Geothermal
Hydropower
2000
Wave / Tidal
1500
Biomass
1000
CSP Plants
Oil / Gas
500
Coal
Nuclear
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
1% of Land Area Required
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Environmental Security
 Reduced Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Power Generation
 Reduced Risks of Nuclear Radiation and Proliferation
 Reduced Local Pollution by Combustion Products
 Optimal Land Use (1%) through Diversified Mix
 Technology based on Recyclable Materials
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Equipment Cost Learning Curves
http://ec.europa.eu/research/energy/pdf/weto_final_report.pdf
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www.oilnergy.com
Coal Price
Nuclear Decommissioning Cost
National Audit Office UK
Nuclear Decommissioning Authority UK
11 GW Capacity
61 £ Billion of 2007
= 6000 €/kW
http://www.nao.org.uk/publications/0708/the_nuclear_decommissioning_au.aspx
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Electricity Cost [c/kWh]
Electricity Cost (Example Spain)
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
2000
Investment Phase
2010
Profit Phase
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
TRANS-CSP Mix
BaU Mix 2000
€2000, Fuel Cost: IEA / WEO 2005, after 2020 CCS
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Economic Security
 Economic Risk Hedged by Increased Portfolio
 Intrinsic Trend to Lower Cost and Lower Price Volatility
 Energy Cost Stabilization through Investment in New Sources
 Prevention of Cost Escalation due to Environmental Constraints
 Prevention of Cost Escalation due to Scarcity
 Reduction of Energy Subsidies in Europe and MENA
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Energy Import for Power Generation
Import Dependency of European Power Generation
90%
80%
Import Dependency
in TRANS-CSP
Scenario
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
Current Trend of
Import Dependency
20%
10%
0%
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp
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Solar Power & Desalination Plants
HVDC Line
Conventional AC Grid
(artist view created with
Google Earth)
Energy,
Water,
Food,
Labor and
Income
for further
300 Million
People
in MENA ?
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Political Security
 Conflict Prevention between EU and MENA Reducing Pressure on Fuels
 Conflict Prevention in MENA Solving Energy and Water Scarcity
 Conflict Prevention in Europe Increasing Energy Diversity
 Reduction of European Energy Import Dependency
 Addition of Energy Corridors for European Supply
 Initiating EU-MENA (Energy) Partnership
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Challenges
 Requires New Structures and New Thinking (Change of Paradigm)
 Requires Long-Term Financing Schemes due to Long-Term Investments
 Based on International Cooperation and Interdependencies
 Higher Complexity than Using Ideally Stored Fossil Energy Sources
 More Stakeholders Involved due to Decentralized Generation
 Cultural and Political Differences in EUMENA
 Lobby Groups Acting Against Each Other
 Speed of Environmental Change and Conflict Potentials
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Thank You!
www.dlr.de/desertec
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Some Background Information
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Total EU-MENA HVDC Interconnection 2020 – 2050 *
Year
2020
2030
2040
2050
Lines x Capacity GW
4 x 2.5
16 x 2.5
28 x 2.5
40 x 2.5
Transfer TWh/y
60
230
470
700
Capacity Factor
0.60
0.67
0.75
0.80
Turnover Billion €/y
3.8
12.5
24
35
Land Area
km x km
15 x 15
30 x 30
40 x 40
50 x 50
3100 x 0.1
3600 x 0.4
3600 x 0.7
3600 x 1.0
Cum. Investment CSP
Billion €
HVDC
42
5
134
16
245
31
350
45
Elec. Cost
€/kWh
0.050
0.014
0.045
0.010
0.040
0.010
0.040
0.010
CSP
HVDC
CSP
HVDC
* All countries analysed in TRANS-CSP
www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp
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Effect of Thermal Energy Storage on the Availability of CSP
9000
Annual Full Load Hours [h/y]
8000
7000
SM4
6000
SM3
5000
SM2
4000
SM1
ANDASOL 1
3000
Nevada Solar 1
2000
SM1
SM2
SM3
SM4
SolarField
1
SolarField
2
SolarField
3
SolarField
4
Storage
1
Storage
2
Storage
3
1000
0
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
Direct Normal Irradiation [kWh/m²/y]
SM = Solar Multiple
1 Solar Field = 6000 m²/MW
1 Storage = 6 hours (full load)
Power Block
www.dlr.de/tt/csp-resources
Electricity
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Electricity Supply in Europe (TRANS-CSP Scenario)
4500
Import Solar
Photovoltaics
Wind
Geothermal
Hydropower
Biomass
Wave / Tidal
CSP Plants
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Electricity [TWh/y]
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp
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Electricity Supply in the Middle East & North Africa
4500
4000
Desalination
Export Solar
Photovoltaics
Wind
Geothermal
Hydropower
Biomass
Wave / Tidal
CSP Plants
Oil / Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Electricity [TWh/y]
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp
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AQUA-CSP Scenario for Middle East & North Africa
Water Consumption [Bm³/y]
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
Natural Water Used
Groundwater Over-Use
2020
2025
2030
Wastewater reused
CSP Desalination
www.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp
2035
2040
2045
2050
Fossil Fuel Desalination
Efficiency Gains
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Solar Electricity Generating System - SEGS, California, USA
(354 MW, online since 1985)
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Global Potential for Concentrating Solar Power
Global Technical Potential: 3,000,000 TWh/y
Global Electricity Consumption: 18,000 TWh/y
www.dlr.de/tt/csp-resources
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DNI Class
Africa
Australia
2000-2099
102,254
6,631
138,194
18,587
2100-2199
2200-2299
139,834
36,762
141,066
87,751
2300-2399
2400-2499
209,571
148,001
203,963
207,753
2500-2599
2600-2699
178,480
142,490
2700-2800+
346,009
49,625
Total
1,459,370
697,600
Central
Asia,
Caucase
Canada
14,280
300
372
177
64
0
0
0
15,193
DNI Class
Middle East Mexico
2000-2099
3,432
1,606
12,443
3,378
2100-2199
2200-2299
39,191
3,650
60,188
5,807
2300-2399
2400-2499
71,324
15,689
34,954
7,134
2500-2599
32,263
1,534
2600-2699
2700-2800+
36,843
1,878
Total
290,639
40,675
Other
Developing Other East
Asia
Europe
Russia
4,491
6
5,174
13
10,947
2
30,776
0
19,355
0
4,429
0
253
0
136
0
75,561
21
China
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8,332
18,276
43,027
28,415
11,197
11,330
2,180
3,079
125,835
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Central
South
America
India
Japan
31,572
7,893
20,585
1,140
24,082
550
20,711
774
6,417
426
3,678
13
5,120
119
11,827
15
123,992
10,928
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
South Korea EU27+
USA
0
866
14,096
0
497
17,114
0
660
21,748
0
162
16,402
0
90
23,903
0
69
8,116
0
31
2,326
0
34
0
0
2,409
103,704
CSP potentials in TWh/y available in the REACCESS world regions for different DNI Classes
www.dlr.de/tt/csp-resources
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