October 20, 2010
China’s Pyrrhic Victory
Jeffrey Hornung
The recent maritime row between Japan and China over the seizure of a Chinese fishing boat captain continues to cast
a pall over bilateral relations. While Tokyo is facing domestic criticism for blinking in the face of Chinese pressure,
Beijing is being criticized by Western and Japanese media as being aggressive in its efforts to expand its control of
adjacent maritime areas. Although the incident has largely been framed as a victory for China and a loss for Japan,
Beijing has little to celebrate.
The row began on September 7 when the Japanese Coast Guard (JCG) arrested the captain of a Chinese fishing trawler
operating in Japanese territorial waters off the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyutai in Chinese) on suspicion of obstructing the
official duties of the JCG. According to the JCG, the fishing trawler, captained by Zhan Qixiong, rammed two of their
vessels after being ordered to stop.
While Japanese authorities pursued the matter through their domestic legal system, Beijing reacted in increasingly
erratic terms. In addition to suspending bilateral cabinet-level exchanges and making repeated calls on Japan’s
ambassador to China, including an unceremonious midnight call, Beijing postponed talks with Tokyo on the signing of
a 2008 treaty for the joint development of gas fields in the area.
In what was viewed as unnecessary escalation, Beijing followed with punitive measures in areas unrelated to the
incident. This included the suspension of a visit by 1,000 Japanese university students to the Shanghai Expo, the
postponement of a Japanese pop concert in Shanghai, the urging of domestic travel agencies to exercise restraint in
arranging tours to Japan, the halting of shipments of rare-earth materials to Japan, and the targeting of goods bound for
export to and import from Japan with thorough customs inspections that added costly delays to shipments. Then, nearly
three weeks after Captain Zhan’s seizure, Premier Wen Jiabao of China warned of taking further retaliatory measures if
Zhan was not released, which was subsequently followed by the arrest of four Japanese nationals in Hebei Province
whom Beijing accused of illegally entering a defense zone and videotaping military targets. Shortly after their arrest,
the Naha District Public Prosecutor’s Office released Zhan with a suspended indictment on September 24.
While it is difficult for Japan to avoid the image of buckling under escalating Chinese pressure, China did not attain a
diplomatic victory worth celebrating. Beijing’s disagreement with Tokyo’s move to arrest Zhan and try him under
Japanese domestic law is understandable given that recognizing Tokyo’s right would be de facto recognition of Japan’s
sovereignty over the islands. However, Beijing’s lack of restraint in handling the matter will have long-lasting negative
consequences for the image it is trying to promote.
China has long sought to shake off its “century of humiliation” and become an equal to other great powers. While the
West has cried foul on Beijing’s two decades of double-digit defense spending increases and military modernization
program, the Chinese leadership has worked hard to reassure its neighbors that these things are not to be feared. Yet,
China’s actions vis-à-vis Japan negate these efforts and serve to reinforce the image of China as an aggressive rising
power. Tying issues unrelated to the fishing trawler incident to punish Japan appears to be yet another instance of
Beijing forcefully pursuing its territorial claims in the South China Sea, Yellow Sea, and the larger East China Sea.
Critics of China have used the incident to demonstrate that Beijing has malicious intentions in its rise. China disputes
this. It does not matter which side is right. Although hypersensitive to world opinion, China’s leadership apparently
fails to understand that its neighbors look at China’s actions and perceive it as a potential aggressor. Because China’s
neighbors are increasingly concerned about China’s forceful diplomacy in dealing with its territorial disputes, Beijing’s
behavior will never garner support in the region. Instead, it makes regional states increasingly wary of the motives
behind China’s military modernization and serves to unite them in a mutually shared interest to protect their
sovereignty. This, in turn, may serve to push the region closer to the United States, which does not lay claim to any
territory in the region and prioritizes freedom of navigation.
Gone are the days of worrying about Japan reestablishing some postwar economic version of its Greater East Asia CoProsperity Sphere. Those worries have been replaced by fears that China may be seeking to establish regional
dominance akin to the Chinese-centered imperial tribute system. China wants to reassure the region that its rise is
peaceful. But as long as Beijing employs diplomatic tactics that others perceive as strong-armed, it will always do
harm to that aim. Beijing needs to be cognizant that short-term victories can create long-term damage.
Jeffrey Hornung is associate professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu. The views expressed
in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Asia-Pacific Center for
Security Studies, the U.S. Pacific Command, the U.S. Department of Defense, or the U.S. government.
The Japan Chair invites other essays for the Platform. Please contact Eri Hirano at (202) 775-3144 or by e-mail at
[email protected].
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