“I
slamists have been the greatest beneficiaries of the Arab Spring, not only on account of their superior organizational abilities, but also because of the support they have received as a result of their
prominence as victims of authoritarianism. Islamists have been joined in the uprisings by other
popular movements. Many recently empowered Islamist organizations are now involved in a power struggle,
in which the logical response is to forge large coalitions with liberals, secularists, and leftists.
New expressions of Islamism are gaining adherents who are aware of widespread
changes around the world and who are committed to the principles of human rights,
democracy, and diversity. The future actions of Islamist leaders will reveal whether
these commitments are genuine or hollow.
Transformation in the Middle East demands a shift in U.S. strategy. Authoritarian
regimes can preserve U.S. interests in the short term, but only democratic forces can
provide stability, enduring cooperation, and shared values.
It is also important to ponder the regional aspects of the Arab Spring: How will it affect the remaining authoritarian regimes in the region? How will it influence the relationship between Islamists on the one hand,
and liberals and leftists on the other? Can mainstream Islamist tendencies survive? What are the characteristics of an Islamist civil state? These are some of the questions whose answers only time will reveal.
—Mokhtar Benabdallaoui, July 12, 2012
”
Democratic Transition in the Middle East: Between
Authoritarianism and Islamism
2
Dr. Mokhtar Benabdallaoui
Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fellow
National Endowment for Democracy
July 12, 2012
Presentation Overview
3
I.
II.
III.
IV.
An Overview of the Arab Uprisings
Social Islamization Versus Political Islamism
Six Categories of Arab Countries
Case Studies





V.
The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt
Al-Nahda in Tunisia
The Justice and Development Party in Morocco
The Justice and Charity Party in Morocco
Hezbollah in Lebanon
The Outlook for Islamism and Democracy
I. An Overview of the Arab Uprisings
4
“A Summer Storm”
5
Major Characteristics of the Arab Uprisings
Spontaneous



Governments, citizens, and academics failed to predict large-scale
protests
Demonstrations occurred with minimal central planning
Protests were organic and lacked major leaders or organizational
capacity
Diverse

Joined by various segments of society: leftists, seculars, Islamists, women,
and liberals
Region-wide

Unrest touched every country in the Middle East, from the Atlantic coast
to the Gulf
Why is the Arab Spring So Unpredictable?
6
When fundamental liberties are banned, it is difficult to
observe transformation within a society
“The Arab Exception”


Claim that Arab society and culture were incompatible with
democracy
The Arab Spring repudiated this thesis
Disregard of Sociological Indicators





Urbanization
Rising education levels and literacy rates
Modern nuclear family structure
Integration of women into the labor market
New forms of communication
“Mechanic” Social Relations
7
Characteristic of countries with poor social
integration
Strong allegiance to tribe, sect, and religion
Examples:



Syria
Yemen
Libya
Dominant
Sect
Religious
and
Ethical
Barriers
Sect 2
Sect 3
Organic Social Relations
8
Characteristic of countries with high levels of social integration
Identity based on citizenship, strong allegiance to nation
Examples:


Egypt
Tunisia
Representative
1
Representative
5
Representative
4
Representative
2
Representative
3
Levels of Institutionalization
9
The inheritance of the presidency posed problems for
authoritarians in Syria, Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen


Widely unpopular among population
Eroded the legitimacy of the rulers
The Influence and Role of the Military
The loyalty and mission of the military played a role in the fate
of Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Libya, and Yemen
 The outcomes of the uprisings depended in large part on the
degree of institutionalization of the military

10
II. Social Islamization Versus Political
Islamism
Social Islamization Versus Political
Islamism
11
Social Islamization
Political Islamism

Spontaneous action emanating from below

Intentional action from above

Source of collective & individual identity

Goal: to mobilize and govern

Specific tool to assert modernity

A political order

An ethical framework

An economic theory

A social model
Can Social Islamization Encourage Radicalization?
 When the government imposes unjustified restrictions on the population
 When a political party or government focuses on one component of
identity
Consequences of Monolithism
12
Identification 1
Religion
Fundamentalism
Identification 2
Tribe
Ethnicity
Racism
Identification 3
Nation
Chauvinism
Composite Identity
13
Religion
Human
Ethnic
National
14
Characteristics of Classical Political
Islamism
Classical Political Islamism




Rigidly orthodox
Dogmatic
Fundamentalist
Totalitarian (Islam is the solution)
These Characteristics Were Not Exclusive to Islamism

Any political entity that bases its legitimacy on religion can commit similar
transgressions

Often leads to confusion between the sacred and the secular, the religious
and the political
A Shift in the Rhetoric of Islamism
15
Rejection of the Idea of the Caliphate
 Discarded in favor of democracy
Abandonment of the Implementation of Sharia
 An increasing commitment to universal values
 Still adhere to general principles of sharia as source of legislation, but refrain
from the immediate implementation of its rigid stipulations
Neutralization of the Mosque
 An agreement in principle to distinguish religion from political activities
 Distinction between sacred and public space
Acceptance of the Civil State
 Equality under the law
 Citizenship
 Opportunities for minorities and women
The Diversity of Islamists
16
Elements that have led to the diversity of Islamist
organizations:
Different interpretations of religious texts
 Changes in social or political contexts
 Relations with government
 Organizational structure

Big/Small
 Administrative/Charismatic
 Public/Secret


Dissent within the group
III. Six Categories of Arab Countries
17
Countries of Revolution
18
Tunisia





Well integrated society
High performance on human resource indicators
Historical ties to Europe
Well-educated and literate population
Strong national identity
Egypt




Well integrated society
Strong national identity
Long political and social traditions
History as a coherent state
Libya

Transitioned from a civil war to revolution as a result of NATO intervention
Yemen – The “Incomplete Revolution”




Split within the ruling tribe leads to conflict and Saleh’s resignation
Rebellion: the Houthi movement in northern Yemen
Tensions between northern and southern Yemen
Al-Qaeda vies for autonomy in the south
Countries in the Throes of Change
19
Syria
A civil war with complex outcomes
 Characterized by tension and outright conflict between
sectarian groups
 Regional implications with a direct impact on Iran, Israel,
Lebanon, and the countries of the Gulf

Bahrain
A dynamic of sectarian conflict with paradoxical results
 Direct interference from regional powers such as Saudi
Arabia
 Implications for regional power balance and sectarian
relationships

Countries of Reform
20
Morocco





Protesters had bold ambitions but only achieved limited reforms
King Mohammad VI responded quickly and proposed reforms, including:
 Empowerment of a prime minister elected by a parliamentary majority
 Separation of powers
 Expansion of the prerogatives of mayors
These initiatives appeared to signal the beginning of a transformation to a
constitutional monarchy
However, they contained ambiguous language and were solely intended to
pacify protesters, not implement true reform
Human rights and press freedoms are still suppressed
Jordan

King Abdullah promised reforms but failed to deliver
 Reorganization of the cabinet and removal of multiple prime ministers is a
ploy to deflect blame and appeal to the protesters, but has failed to foster
actual reform
Countries of Continuity
21
The Countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council
 The regimes attempted to maintain their honor and have
found a temporary reprieve from unrest by buying social
peace and stability
Are these maneuvers sufficient, or will the Gulf monarchies
be forced to implement real democratic reforms in the future?
 While subsidizing the material needs of their populations has
temporarily quelled unrest, this “grace period” will be short
 Eventually, rising unemployment levels, coupled with a large
and well-educated youth, will force real democratic reform
in the Gulf
Countries of Ostensible Exception
22
Because of unique circumstances, these countries lack the stability,
unity, and determination necessary for sustained protests:
Algeria


A heritage of a long and painful civil war
Hundreds of thousands killed in the 1990s in violence between Islamists
and the military
Sudan



Iraq




Recent secession of South Sudan
Simultaneous civil wars
The plight of everyday life
Foreign occupation
Experienced a series of wars since the 1980s
Sectarian conflicts between Sunnis, Shias, and Kurds
Plight of everyday life
The Real Exception
23
Lebanon
 Country
is a sectarian democratic oligarchy
 Affected by the legacy of a long and brutal civil war
 Vulnerable to the influence of regional powers
 Politically unstable due to tenuous ruling coalitions
 Conservatism of the society paralyzes the
modernization of the state
 Political gridlock and sectarian concerns hamper
progress and the transformation of the political system
IV. Case Studies
24
“We should get married
before we learn about
sectarianism.”
The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt
25
Economic Challenges
Avoid government bankruptcy
 Programs to create jobs
 Initiatives to attract foreign investment
 Educational investments to foster prosperity

The Puzzle of Success

Economic prosperity can be created by unpopular political
decisions, relationships, and concessions
Can democracy grow despite restrictions imposed by the
military?
Yes, the Muslim Brotherhood needs national unity to resist
military hegemony
 It needs cooperation from political rivals, including secular
parties, to balance the power of the military

Al-Nahda in Tunisia
26
The Legacy of Habib Bourguiba

The success of contemporary Tunisia is largely due to one man: former
president Habib Bourguiba
Al-Nahda: The Avant-Garde Islamist Organization




The first self-critical political party
The first party accepting of political diversity
Europe will remain Tunisia’s privileged partner
Tunisia will invest primarily in the Maghreb
Will Tunisia become a new democratic Islamist paradigm for the Middle East?


Al-Nahda’s success will increase the power and prestige of Tunisia
Al-Nahda could become a model for other Islamist groups in the
Middle East
The JDP and J&C in Morocco
27
The Justice and Development Party (JDP)
 In
response to protests, the king brought the JDP into the
government to resolve social and economic crises
 However, the JDP has no real power and serves as a
scapegoat
 The party is now blamed for the country’s continuing
problems
 Possesses a weak mobilization capacity
 Disadvantaged due to the fragmented political arena
Justice and Charity (J&C)
A
paradox: political Sufism
 Believe that change can only come from society
Hezbollah in Lebanon
28
What theoretical framework is useful for understanding
wilayat al-Fakih?




The necessity of Iranian support, which is vital to Hezbollah’s
political power
From waiting for salvation to taking initiative on public issues
From the goal of an Islamic republic to “Lebanon first”
The genius of the Lebanese system
Political Trends Do Not Favor Hezbollah

Strategic alliance with a failed state—Syria



From the protected to the protector of Syria
A decrease in Iran’s regional role
Sunni-Shia polarization
V. The Outlook for Islamism and
Democracy
29
Islamism and Arab Societies
30

The experience of the Egyptian elections shows that a vote for
Islamists is often a vote of protest instead of a vote for Islamist
principles, which foreshadows the rise of other political strains

The inclusion of Islamists in the political arena will moderate
their speech, force them to embrace compromise, and make
religion more inconsequential—which is good for democracy
and Arab societies

The existence of Islamist regimes in Arab countries, and
increased ties due to political similarities, can promote economic
integration and free trade and enhance prosperity in the region
Islamism and Democracy
31

The collapse of four military and police regimes—Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and
Yemen—presents a unique opportunity to establish democracy in the region

It is time for the reform of religion: between a new Islamism and Salafism

The new Islamism is an effective means of removing “inviolability” from public
policy

Islamists have started to embrace universal principles, such as human rights
and respect for individual freedoms

Islamists are on the path to democracy



Engage in more efforts to abandon dogmatism (epitomized by the slogan Islam
is the solution)
Reject the use of religion in politics, which foments sectarianism
Elaborate concrete political projects
32
Islamists and Relations with the
United States
The Cost of “Stability”
 The embrace of military and authoritarian regimes has failed to
promote stability or democracy in the Arab world
Towards a New Option for Stability and Development in the Middle
East?
 Embrace of legitimate, democratically elected governments is the
most effective, low-cost way to promote stability and American
interests in the Middle East




Islamists share the same free market principles as the United States
An inclusive policy can promote real pluralism in the future
Political engagement will mitigate some religious restrictions to
promote economic and political goals
The United States should partner with democratic Islamist
governments to promote stability, freedom, and economic
opportunities in the Arab world