Research and Geospatial Information
Luton Population Projections 2011-2041
November 2015
Introduction
Luton Borough Council (LBC) produced a set of demographic projections using the most up to date
data available. These data projections include updated births, death and migration trends.
Key Features of the Projections
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LBC consider that the official mid-year population estimates for Luton produced by the
Office for National Statistics have under-estimated the population. Since the 2011 Census
the data have more accurately reflected Luton’s population to use as a base for the
projections. Research is on-going to measure the accuracy of the official estimates.
The projections run from 2011 to 2041 and are based on projecting current trends in fertility,
mortality and migration with the population estimates from 2011-2014 used as a base for the
projections.
A ten year migration trend taking an average of the past ten years migration trends was
used to give a longer trend then the official method which uses a five year trend.
The POPGROUP forecasting model was used for the projections.
If current trends continue then Luton’s population is projection to increase by approximately
50,000 (25%) in the next 20 years and by 70,000 (35%) in the next 30 years.
All age groups are projected to rise with the largest proportionate increase in the older age
group.
Ten Year Migration Trend
Table 1: Luton Population Projections Ten Year Migration Trend
Source: Luton Borough Council, using POPGROUP software
Research and Geospatial Information Team
Department of Environment and Regeneration
Luton Population & Household Projections
November 2015
Figure 1: Luton Population Pyramid 2011 & 2041
Source: Luton Borough Council, using POPGROUP software
The population of Luton is projected to increase from 203,650 in 2011 to 254,050 in 2031 and to
274,250 in 2041 an increase of 35% in 30 years. The older population groups are projected to
have the highest population percentage increase but all age groups population are projected to
increase.
Figure 2: Migration and Natural Change of the population 2011-2041, five year migration
trend
Source: Luton Borough Council, using POPGROUP software
Research and Geospatial Information Team
Department of Environment and Regeneration
Luton Population & Household Projections
November 2015
Figure 2 shows the projected natural change (births minus deaths) and net migration throughout
the forecasting period. The chart shows that population growth in Luton is mainly influenced by the
high birth rate in Luton which is projected to continue over the 30 year forecasting period.
Appendix: Methodology
1: Population Forecasting Model
The projections used the POPGROUP and Derived Forecasts model. POPGROUP is owned by
the Local Government Association and maintained by Edge Analytics.
2: Base Population
For this set of projections the ONS’ mid-year population estimates from 2011-2014 were used as a
base. Whilst there has been problems with the official figures under-estimating the population of
Luton the data following the 2011 Census has improved and is within confidence limits to use as a
base. Luton Borough Council will continue to monitor the population estimates using local
administrative data and intelligence to determine whether demographic change is being captured
by the official figures.
3: Fertility Rates
The fertility rates were taken from the ONS’ local authority fertility rates and the schedules used
are provided by POPGROUP derived from official government statistics.
4: Mortality Rates
The mortality rates were taken from the ONS’ local authority mortality rates and the schedules
used are provided by POPGROUP derived from official government statistics.
5: Student Adjustment
No adjustment was made for the student population because of the lack of quality data about the
student population in Luton. Methods are being looked at to obtain data about the residency of the
student population for future projections.
5: Migration Components for Luton
The migration trend was derived from the average of the migration components of change from the
Office for National Statistics. A ten year trend was used for international & internal migration to
other parts of the UK, this is consistent with earlier projections for Luton’s Strategic Housing Market
Assessment. Internal migration is then trended against population in the future projections.
For more information on this topic contact Research & Geospatial Information via
[email protected]
Research and Geospatial Information Team
Department of Environment and Regeneration