Quaternary Science Reviews 87 (2014) 24e33 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Quaternary Science Reviews journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/quascirev Abundant C4 plants on the Tibetan Plateau during the Lateglacial and early Holocene Elizabeth K. Thomas a, *, Yongsong Huang a, Carrie Morrill b, Jiangtao Zhao c, Pamela Wegener a, Steven C. Clemens a, Steven M. Colman d, Li Gao a, e a Department of Geological Sciences, Brown University, Box 1846, Providence, RI 02912, USA Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado and NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Boulder, CO 80305, USA State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an 710075, China d Large Lake Observatory, University of Minnesota, Duluth, MN 55812, USA e GeoIsoChem Corporation, 738 Arrow Grand Circle, Covina, CA 91722, USA b c a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: Received 14 October 2013 Received in revised form 12 December 2013 Accepted 17 December 2013 Available online 24 January 2014 Plants using the C4 (Hatch-Slack) photosynthetic pathway are key for global food production and account for ca 25% of terrestrial primary productivity, mostly in relatively warm, dry regions. The discovery of modern naturally-occurring C4 plant species at elevations up to 4500 m in Tibet and 3000 m in Africa and South America, however, suggests that C4 plants are present in a wider range of environments than previously thought. Environmental conditions on the Tibetan Plateau, including high irradiance, rainfall focused in summer, and saline soils, can favor C4 plants by offsetting the deleterious effects of low growing season temperature. We present evidence based on leaf wax carbon isotope ratios from Lake Qinghai that C4 plants accounted for 50% of terrestrial primary productivity on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau throughout the Lateglacial and early Holocene. Despite cold conditions, C4 plants flourished due to a combination of factors, including maximum summer insolation, pCO2 ca 250 ppmv, and sufficient summer precipitation. The modern C3 plant-dominated ecosystem around Lake Qinghai was established ca 6 thousand years ago as pCO2 increased and summer temperature and precipitation decreased. C4 plants were also intermittently abundant during the Last Glacial period; we propose that C4 plants contributed a significant portion of local primary productivity by colonizing the exposed, saline Qinghai Lake bed during low stands. Our results contrast with state-of-the-art ecosystem models that simulate <0.5% C4 plant abundance on the Tibetan Plateau in modern and past environments. The past abundance of C4 plants on the Tibetan Plateau suggests a wider temperature range for C4 plants than can be inferred from modern distributions and model simulations, and provides paleoecological evidence to support recent findings that C4 plant evolution and distribution was determined by a combination of climatic and environmental factors (temperature, irradiance, precipitation amount and seasonality, and soil salinity). Moreover, this finding highlights the exceptional sensitivity of high-elevation ecosystems to environmental change, and provides critical benchmarks for ecosystem model validation. Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Leaf wax Carbon isotope C4 photosynthesis Paleoecology Tibetan Plateau Monsoon 1. Introduction Under present atmospheric CO2 concentrations, C4 plants are minor or absent in cool, high-elevation environments (Ehleringer et al., 1997; Collatz et al., 1998; Sage et al., 1999; Edwards and Smith, 2010). The modern distribution of C4 plants is likely a result of preferential adoption of C4 photosynthesis by clades adapted to warm, mesophytic conditions (>22 C mean growing * Corresponding author. Tel.: þ1 716 417 3062. E-mail address: [email protected] (E.K. Thomas). 0277-3791/$ e see front matter Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.12.014 season temperature, ca 1200 mm yr1 rainfall), where the C4 photosynthetic pathway imparts a competitive advantage (Collatz et al., 1998; Edwards and Smith, 2010). Ecosystem models incorporate a 22 C minimum mean monthly temperature requirement for C4 plants in addition to a 25 mm month1 minimum precipitation threshold for all plants (Collatz et al., 1998; Still et al., 2003). Therefore, these models reconstruct few C4 plants at latitudes >50 or elevations >2500 m asl (e.g., Fig. 1), which may result in underestimates of global primary production (Still et al., 2003). The existence of >50 C4 plant species on the Tibetan Plateau and other high-elevation regions challenges this 22 C threshold criterion (Fig. S1; Tieszen et al., 1979; Cavagnaro, 1988; Wang et al., E.K. Thomas et al. / Quaternary Science Reviews 87 (2014) 24e33 25 plant abundance reconstruction with the CCSM3 transient simulation of C4 plant abundance. 1.1. Setting Fig. 1. Location map. Lake Qinghai (black) and catchment (dark gray), Tibetan Plateau (light gray), modern boundary of 5% C4 plants (thick black line; Still et al., 2003), and sites mentioned in text (white dots; H, Huanxian; W, Weinan (Liu et al., 2005); X, Xunyi (Zhang et al., 2003); M, Mangshan (Peterse et al., 2011)). C4 plants abundance is variable and heterogenous, ranging from 0 to 80% in Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and Indonesia (Still et al., 2003). Inset: C4 grass abundance at 9 ka simulated with the CCSM3 transient simulation (Z. Liu et al., 2009), showing no C4 grasses on the Tibetan Plateau, but consistent minor C4 grass abundance in Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and Indonesia (white; see Fig. S5 for more time slices). 2004) and indicates that C4 plants can successfully compete with C3 plants at high-elevations despite cold conditions, given other environmental conditions that favor C4 plants (Pyankov et al., 2000). Such conditions include 20% higher irradiance than at sea level, >50% of rainfall falling in summer, and high salinity soils (up to 10 ppt; Baogen et al., 2013). Furthermore, the evolution of C4 photosynthesis in cold-, arid-, salt-adapted clades, such as Chenopodiaceae sensu stricto (s.s.), eudicotyledonous plants that are abundant in Asian deserts, may eliminate strict temperature limitations for some C4 plants (Pyankov et al., 2000; Kadereit et al., 2012). The Tibetan Plateau and other high-elevation regions experience amplified responses to global climatic change due to cloudand snow-albedo feedbacks (X. Liu et al., 2009; Diffenbaugh et al., 2012). High-elevation plant ecosystems must adapt to amplified climatic change under already harsh (cold, arid) conditions, and are therefore bellwethers of climatic and environmental change. Reconstructions of plant ecosystem variability during climate regimes different than today elucidate mechanisms that cause plant ecosystem change, and provide information to improve ecosystem model accuracy in sensitive high-elevation regions. We present a sub-millennial-resolution 32-ka-long reconstruction of C4 plant abundance on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau based on d13C of leaf wax C28 n-acids (d13Cwax) from Lake Qinghai (37 N, 100 E, 3194 m above sea level; Fig. 1). We augment our findings with a 16-ka-long pollen record from Lake Qinghai (Ji et al., 2005); a detailed interpretation of the 32-ka-long pollen record is in preparation (S. Xue, personal communication). Our work builds on research by An et al. (2012), who developed an age model and initial climate reconstructions from the Lake Qinghai drill cores. We compare our C4 plant abundance reconstruction with existing climate, environmental, and ecological records. We use output from a 21-ka-long transient simulation of the Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3) to evaluate past seasonal temperature and precipitation changes around Lake Qinghai. We also compare our C4 Lake Qinghai is well suited for evaluating average landscape properties because æolian and fluvial processes deliver leaf waxes to the closed-basin lake from a large catchment (30,000 km2) at high-elevations (3194 to >4000 m above sea level; An et al., 2012). Today, Lake Qinghai’s catchment contains temperate and alpine steppe vegetation, dominated by C3 Poaceae and Artemisia (Chen and Peng, 1993; Herzschuh et al., 2009). Mean annual precipitation is 370 mm, with 60% falling in June through August; mean annual evaporation is >1000 mm (“China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System,” 2012). The average temperature for July, the warmest month, is 16 C. In the Lake Qinghai catchment, May is the first month with average surface temperatures above 0 C, so is the month when C3 plants begin to grow, if there is enough precipitation and/or snow melt. In contrast, C4 plants thrive during the summer, when temperature is highest, but only when there is sufficient moisture. We use these basic guidelines to interpret our record of C4 plant abundance. 1.2. Determining past C4 plant abundance Different enzyme-mediated reactions in the C3 and C4 photosynthetic pathways impart distinct carbon isotope compositions on plant biomass: C4 plants are ca 15& enriched in 13C relative to C3 plants (O’Leary, 1981). These distinct d13C compositions are also reflected in leaf waxes (Chikaraishi and Naraoka, 2007; Rao et al., 2008). Leaf waxes are n-alkyl lipids that form a protective layer on leaves; plants in arid regions produce particularly high abundances of leaf waxes (Shepherd and Griffiths, 2006). Leaf waxes are abraded from the leaf surface and carried to a lake basin by wind and/or water and are preserved well in Quaternary lake sediments (Castañeda and Schouten, 2011). We use leaf wax isotopic endmember values for C3 and C4 plants, discussed below, to calculate C4 plant abundance. 2. Methods 2.1. Lipid biomarker extraction and purification 131 samples were obtained from ICDP drill cores LQDP05 1A and LQDP05 1F for organics analysis. The stratigraphy, age model, and initial climate reconstructions for these drill cores are described in previous work (An et al., 2012). Free lipids were extracted from freeze-dried samples with an Accelerated Solvent Extractor 200 (Dionex) using dichloromethane (DCM):methanol 9:1 (v:v). Nalkanoic acids were prepared by first separating the TLEs on solid phase Aminopropyl silica gel flash columns using three column volumes of DCM:Isopropanol 2:1 (v:v) and 4% acetic acid in diethyl ether. The acid fraction was methylated in anhydrous 5% HCl in methanol at 60 C overnight. Hydroxyl-carboxylic acids were removed from the methylated acid fractions using silica gel flash columns with DCM as the eluant, after eluting apolar compounds with hexane. 2.2. Carbon isotope analysis The carbon isotope ratio of fatty acid methyl esters (FAMEs) was determined on an HP 6890 gas chromatograph interfaced to a Thermo Finnigan Delta Vplus isotope ratio mass spectrometer through a combustion reactor at Brown University. Isotope values 26 E.K. Thomas et al. / Quaternary Science Reviews 87 (2014) 24e33 are expressed in per mille (&) relative to Vienna Pee Dee Belemnite (VPDB). The FAME d13C values were corrected for the isotopic contribution of the carbon in the methyl group added during methylation. The analytical error, calculated using the results of duplicate analyses of each extract, is 0.4& (1s) and an external FAME standard, injected once after every sixth sample injection, had an analytical error of 0.7& (1s). 2.3. Transient simulation The transient simulation of the past 21,000 years was carried out using the low-resolution version (T313) of the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3; Z. Liu et al., 2009; He, 2011; Liu et al., 2012). CCSM3 is a global, ocean-atmosphere-sea ice-land surface climate model coupled without flux corrections. The atmospheric component is the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 at a horizontal resolution of T31 (approximately 3.75 in latitude and longitude) and 26 hybrid vertical levels. The land model, which predicts plant functional types using a dynamic vegetation scheme, uses the same grid as the atmospheric component. The ocean model is an implementation of the Parallel Ocean Program model with longitudinal resolution of 3.6 and variable latitudinal resolution, with finer resolution in the North Atlantic and tropics (w0.9 ). The vertical resolution is 25 levels extending to a depth of 5.5 km. The dynamicethermodynamic sea ice model uses the same horizontal grid and land mask as the ocean component. The T313 present-day control simulation reproduces the major features of global climate, with improved ocean circulation compared to earlier versions of this model (Yeager et al., 2006). Results from the higher-resolution (T421) version of CCSM3 for Last Glacial Maximum and middle Holocene conditions capture important paleoclimate patterns documented by proxy records (Otto-Bliesner et al., 2006). Detailed information about the forcings used in the transient experiment can be found in He (2011), Liu et al. (2012), and Z. Liu et al. (2009). Briefly, orbital forcing varied transiently (Berger, 1978), and greenhouse gas (CO2, CH4, and N2O) concentrations were based on ice core measurements (Joos and Spahni, 2008). Continental ice sheets were based on the ICE-5G reconstruction (Peltier, 2004) and altered approximately once per thousand years. Meltwater forcing (MWF) prior to 14.5 ka was the DGL-A scheme (Z. Liu et al., 2009), which includes an abrupt termination at the Bolling-Allerod. Following this, major periods of MWF were prescribed from 14.4 to 13.9 ka to the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean and from 12.9 to 11.7 ka and from 9.0 to 8.2 ka to the North Atlantic (He, 2011; Liu et al., 2012). To generate time series of climate variables from the transient simulation for the Lake Qinghai area, we averaged the four closest grid cells to the lake (Fig. 2). This choice was made to average out random fluctuations from individual grid cells while accounting for the relatively low resolution of the model and the large topographic gradients in this region. The transient evolution of temperature and precipitation for these four grid cells is representative of monsoonal Asia as a whole (Figs. 2, S2 and S3). Fig. 2. Surface temperature, precipitation, and moisture balance (precipitation minus evaporation) time series from the CCSM3 transient simulation (Z. Liu et al., 2009). Each time series was produced from the average of four grid cells surrounding Lake Qinghai (Figs. S2 and S3). Average winter (DecembereFebruary) variables plotted in black; May, June, July, and August variables plotted individually. Simulated modern temperatures are cooler than modern observations (“China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System,” 2012), likely because modern observations are point measurements and the model temperatures are averaged over a large area. Nonetheless, the magnitude of glacialeinterglacial-scale modeled temperature change is similar to reconstructed temperature change on the CLP. (years 1986e2005 AD). We used all models in the CMIP5 archive as of May 2013 that provided the information necessary for our analysis (Table S1). For models providing ensembles for the RCPs, we analyzed just one ensemble member given the expectation that differences among the models are typically larger than differences between ensemble members. The grid resolutions vary among the models and to ensure that we consistently averaged the same spatial area we first bilinearly interpolated results from all models to the CCSM4 grid. Then, we calculated the area average for a 3 3 box centered on the location of Lake Qinghai (37 N, 100 E). 3. C28 n-acid carbon isotopes as a proxy for C4 plant abundance 2.4. CMIP5 model results 3.1. Leaf wax sources To provide an estimate of conditions that the Tibetan Plateau plant ecosystem will be experiencing in ca 2050 AD, we extracted temperature and pCO2 data for the Tibetan Plateau from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model projections. Temperature and precipitation anomalies for the Lake Qinghai area at ca 2050 AD were calculated from CMIP5 model projections, using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 (years 2040e2059 AD) relative to historical climate simulations The most abundant n-acid chain lengths in Lake Qinghai sediments are C26 and C28. Terrestrial plants in the modern Lake Qinghai catchment produce mainly mid- to long-chain n-acids, with a peak at C24; C26 and C28 n-acids compose ca 10% each of total terrestrial plant leaf wax production (Wang and Liu, 2012). In contrast, aquatic plants produce mainly C16 n-acids. C26 is <10%, and C28 is <5% of total aquatic plant leaf wax production (Wang and E.K. Thomas et al. / Quaternary Science Reviews 87 (2014) 24e33 Liu, 2012). Aquatic pollen is a minor component (<1% average) of the total pollen flux throughout the entire 32-ka record, except from 20.5 to 15.5 ka, when aquatic pollen averages 5%, and briefly peaks at 65% at ca 18 ka (Fig. 3; Ji et al., 2005; S. Xue has generated aquatic pollen data for the past 32 ka in Lake Qinghai and reconstructs pollen abundance up to 65% at 20.5, 18, and 15.5 ka, personal communication). Terrestrial plants are therefore the dominant source of long-chain n-acids, with the possible exception 27 of brief intervals between 20.5 and 15.5 ka. We report d13C of the C28 n-acid because aquatic plants produce fewer C28 n-acids, and are less likely to contaminate the terrestrial signal. 3.2. Carbon isotope end members In order to convert d13Cwax to C4 plant abundance, we must determine reasonable C3 and C4 plant C28 n-acid d13C values for the Fig. 3. Lake Qinghai d13Cwax compared to local precipitation and pollen reconstructions. A. Qinghai d13Cwax. Error bars on data points are 1s analytical precision. Horizontal black and gray bars are 14C age constraints, shown with 1s calibrated range; gray arrows and numbers indicate reservoir correction applied to ages of the same shade, Holocene ages had a 135-year reservoir correction; black stars indicate depths of 14C ages that are >20 ka older than their depositional age based on this age model (An et al., 2012). B. Inferred C4 plant abundance and uncertainty calculated using likely range of C3 and C4 plant end member 13Cwax values (solid black line and gray range). Thin black line shows 0% C4. C. Lake Qinghai ostracode d18O (Liu et al., 2007), age model adjusted to match age model from ref. (An et al., 2012). Negative values in the early Holocene indicate more summer precipitation (2s analytical error is 0.2&). D. Percent carbonate and flux of large grains in Lake Qinghai sediments (An et al., 2012). Higher %CaCO3 in the Holocene likely indicates more precipitation, the increase at 11.5 ka is likely due to a sedimentological transition as well as a precipitation increase. Larger grain size flux corresponds to stronger westerly winds, and likely greater winter precipitation. E. Percent Poaceae, Chenopodiaceae s.s., tree, and aquatic pollen, and pollen concentration in Lake Qinghai sediments (Ji et al., 2005). Age model from Ji et al. (2005) adjusted to match age model for our samples by correlating percent total organic carbon from the two records. Gray bars highlight Younger Dryas and Heinrich Events 1e3, defined by 18O-enriched intervals in the Chinese speleothem records (Wang et al., 2008). 28 E.K. Thomas et al. / Quaternary Science Reviews 87 (2014) 24e33 Tibetan Plateau. We are not aware of any published modern C28 nacid d13C values for this region. We use C28 n-acid d13C values for C3 and C4 plants at lower elevations, adjusted for known effects of elevation and aridity, to determine end member values for the Tibetan Plateau. 3.2.1. C3 plant d13Cwax end member The d13C of C28 fatty acid in C3 trees and herbs from Thailand and Japan, where mean annual precipitation is ca 1500 mm, is 36.9 1.7& (Chikaraishi and Naraoka, 2007). When C3 plants are drought-stressed, as is the case for plants on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, their biomass becomes enriched in 13C by up to 3& relative to non drought-stressed C3 plants (Passey et al., 2002). A compilation of carbon isotope fractionation during CO2 uptake and fixation (Dleaf) by trees throughout the world shows that trees in dry regions have lower Dleaf, and therefore higher d13C, than trees in wet regions, even within a single genus (Diefendorf et al., 2010). C3 plants at higher elevations also have lower Dleaf, perhaps due to decreased atmospheric pressure (Li et al., 2007; Diefendorf et al., 2010; Zhou et al., 2011). Assuming that this relationship applies to grasses and herbs as well as trees, we apply an empirically derived equation for leaf d13Cwax enrichment: Dleaf ¼ 4.20(0.26) *log10(MAP) 0.06(0.01)*Oaltitude þ 9.31(0.90), MAP ¼ mean annual precipitation in mm, (Diefendorf et al., 2010) using an average catchment MAP of 370 mm and an elevation of 3500 m. The combination of aridity and high-elevation at Lake Qinghai would cause up to 5.3 2.2& enrichment of C3 plant d13Cwax compared to plants in Japan and Thailand (Chikaraishi and Naraoka, 2007; Diefendorf et al., 2010). The modern landscape around Lake Qinghai is dominated by C3 plants, and the minimum late Holocene d13Cwax in Lake Qinghai sediments is 32.9&. This is 4& enriched in 13C relative to d13Cwax of C3 trees and herbs in Japan and Thailand, close to the predicted 5.3& enrichment. We therefore use 33 2& for the C3 plant d13Cwax end member at Lake Qinghai. The glacial period was drier than the Holocene at Lake Qinghai (Colman et al., 2007; An et al., 2012), likely causing C3 plant d13C to be more enriched. Although we do not have quantitative estimates of precipitation amount, a site with 100 mm growing season precipitation would contain C3 plants 2& enriched relative to modern C3 plants at Lake Qinghai using the equation above (Diefendorf et al., 2010). Thus, the glacial C3 plant d13Cwax end member value may have been closer to 31&, which would decrease our calculated C4 plant abundance during the glacial period by 5e10% (Fig. 3B). Note that the 31& C3 plant d13Cwax end member results in negative C4 plant abundance during the late Holocene, and is therefore likely only applicable to the glacial period. 3.2.2. C4 plant d13Cwax end member The d13C of C28 fatty acid in C4 plants from Thailand and Japan, where mean annual precipitation is ca 1500 mm, is 21.4 2.1& (Chikaraishi and Naraoka, 2007). Unlike C3 plants, drought-stressed C4 plants do not exhibit changes in biomass d13C (Passey et al., 2002). Drier conditions on the Tibetan Plateau, or changes in precipitation amount between the glacial and Holocene periods likely do not affect the C4 plant d13Cwax end member. There is evidence that C4 Chenopodiaceae s.s., a dominant form of C4 plants in central Asian deserts, have lower Dleaf at high-elevations (0.1& per 100 m; Pyankov et al., 2000; Van de Water et al., 2002). At 3500 m on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, the C4 plant d13Cwax end member value would be 18&, ca 3& enriched in 13C relative to C4 plant d13Cwax at low elevations (Chikaraishi and Naraoka, 2007). 3.2.3. Aquatic plant d13Cwax end member at Lake Qinghai Aquatic plants are intermittently abundant in the Lake Qinghai record (Fig. 3; Ji et al., 2005). Aquatic pollen in the Lake Qinghai record is mainly Myriophyllum sp. with minor amounts of Potamogeton sp. and Sparganium sp. Carbon isotopes of bulk Potamogeton sp. material from Lake Qinghai are 17.8 to 15.9& (W. Liu et al., 2013). Cladophora sp., aquatic phytoplankton that do not produce pollen and produce only a small relative proportion of long chain n-acids, have bulk carbon isotope values of 33.6 to 28.6& (Wang and Liu, 2012; W. Liu et al., 2013). C28 n-acid carbon isotopes tend to be depleted relative to bulk values, and therefore the bulk values cited here are maxima for aquatic d13Cwax end members. The studies of plants at Lake Qinghai do not provide information regarding the concentration of n-acids produced by aquatic and terrestrial plants, although other research demonstrates that terrestrial plants produce more n-acids than aquatic plants (Gao et al., 2011). Aquatic plants are therefore unlikely to have contributed significant amounts of n-acids to the Lake Qinghai sediments throughout most of the record. One exception to this is the interval at 18 ka, when aquatic pollen is >65% (S. Xue, personal communication). Depleted d13Cwax values, ca 34&, also occur in this interval, and may be a result of increased aquatic plant productivity, particularly Cladophora sp., which has depleted bulk d13C values. 3.3. C4 plant abundance, error estimates, and alternate interpretations Lake Qinghai d13Cwax ranges from 32.9 to 21.9& (Fig. 3). d13Cwax was most 13C-depleted from 32 to 21 ka and 6 to 0 ka and most 13C-enriched during the Lateglacial and early Holocene (13.7e 8.3 ka; Fig. 3). This 10& range is most likely a result of changing C3 and C4 plant biomass in the Lake Qinghai catchment. We therefore use the isotopic end members, 33 2& for C3 plants and a range from 21 to 18& for C4 plants, and the Lake Qinghai d13Cwax record to calculate C4 plant abundance from 32 ka to the Late Holocene (Fig. 3B; black line end members: 33& for C3 and 18& for C4 plants). C3 plants were dominant (>80%) during the glacial period, with two intervals of abrupt C4 plant expansion. During the Lateglacial and early Holocene, C4 plants were abundant (ca 50%) in the Lake Qinghai catchment. The modern C3-dominated ecosystem developed ca 6 ka. Due to uncertainty in our end member estimates, we present a range of possible C4 plant abundance (Fig. 3B). We stress that aridity-driven changes in C3 plant 13CO2 discrimination would cause d13Cwax variations no greater than ca 3&. If aridity were the main cause of changes in Lake Qinghai d13Cwax, the dry late Holocene would be more enriched in 13C than the wet early Holocene (Passey et al., 2002; Wang et al., 2003; Diefendorf et al., 2010; An et al., 2012; Dietze et al., 2013; Hudson and Quade, 2013). This is opposite the trend that we observe (Fig. 3). Furthermore, CAM plants, such as Crassulaceae and Isoetes, are rare in this part of the Tibetan Plateau, in both modern surveys and in the pollen record, and so would likely not influence d13Cwax (Chen and Peng, 1993; Ji et al., 2005; Herzschuh et al., 2010). Thus, we interpret the Lake Qinghai d13Cwax record as indicating changes in terrestrial plant ecology, specifically changes in C3 and C4 plant biomass. 4. Discussion We propose that two distinct sets of environmental conditions caused C4 plants to flourish in the Lake Qinghai catchment: 1. From 21 to 15 ka: C3 plants dominated, but arid conditions caused Lake Qinghai level to drop, exposing the lake bed, which was colonized by early-succession, cold- and salt-tolerant C4 Chenopodiaceae s.s. and, 2. During the Lateglacial and early Holocene: moderate pCO2 and warm, wet summers caused C4 Chenopodiaceae s.s. and Poaceae to flourish throughout northeastern Tibet (Fig. 4). We use these boundary conditions to incorporate precipitation into the E.K. Thomas et al. / Quaternary Science Reviews 87 (2014) 24e33 29 Fig. 4. Qinghai d13Cwax record compared to other climate and environmental reconstructions. A. Qinghai d13Cwax. Maximum summer insolation (gray; Laskar et al., 2004). B. Ages of glacier maxima in the Dalijia Mountains (J. Wang et al., 2013). C. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations from Antarctic ice cores (Jouzel et al., 2007). D. Mean annual air temperature on the CLP (Peterse et al., 2011; see SI for calibration details; 1s analytical error is 0.2 C). E. Total organic carbon (TOC) d13C from Weinan and Huanxian loess sections (Liu et al., 2005) and from Lake Rutundu in Kenya (Wooller et al., 2003), and d13Cwax from Xunyi loess section (Zhang et al., 2003), note different y-axis scales. Inferred C4 abundance from the original publications (1s analytical error is 0.1e0.3&). F. Speleothem d18O from Sanbao and Hulu caves (Wang et al., 2008). Gray bars as in Fig. 3. model by Ehleringer et al. (1997) that predicts the CO2 and temperature conditions that favor C3 or C4 plants (Fig. 5, curves representative for the Tibetan Plateau). The boundary conditions between C3 and C4 plants calculated by Ehleringer et al. (1997) cannot explain the changes in C4 plant abundance that we reconstruct at Lake Qinghai. We therefore constructed a schematic representation of the effects of precipitation (Fig. 5). Therein, isohyets represent dry (ca 100 mm/growing season; Last Glacial), wet (ca 330 mm/growing season; early Holocene), and moderate precipitation conditions (ca 220 mm/growing season; modern) and serve as boundaries between conditions that favor C3 and C4 plants. The isohyets were drawn to have slopes similar to those calculated by Ehleringer et al. (1997), and were positioned to represent a best fit to our %C4 plant results. Our results support recent findings that the conditions that favor C4 plant productivity shift not only in response to temperature and pCO2, but also in response to growing season precipitation (Edwards and Still, 2008; Edwards and Smith, 2010). 4.1. Plant ecosystems in the Lake Qinghai catchment during the glacial period During the glacial period (32e14 ka), Lake Qinghai d13Cwax ranged from 34.0 to 22.5&, indicating C3 plants were dominant (Fig. 3). Overall primary productivity was low from 32 to 15 ka, as indicated by low pollen counts (Fig. 3) and multiple bulk organic geochemical proxies (X. Liu et al., 2013). Mean annual temperature reconstructed on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP; Peterse et al., 2011) and summer temperature at Lake Qinghai in the transient simulation of the CCSM3 (Z. Liu et al., 2009) were 3e6 C lower than present (Figs. 2e4, and S2; see SI). Precipitation, reconstructed using carbonate in Lake Qinghai sediments and simulated by 30 E.K. Thomas et al. / Quaternary Science Reviews 87 (2014) 24e33 Fig. 5. Schematic diagram illustrating environmental conditions (temperature, pCO2 and precipitation) controlling plant ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau. Increased precipitation causes C4 plants to be favored under cooler and higher pCO2 conditions, as shown by isohyets based on data from this paper: wet isohyet (green), moderate isohyet (gray), dry isohyet (brown). Temperature and pCO2 axes and slopes of isohyet boundaries based on Ehleringer et al. (1997), and isohyets are drawn to yield a best fit to our %C4 plant results. “Moderate precipitation” corresponds to 220 mm in summer, based on modern instrumental data (“China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System,” 2012; all three conditions are arid: 50% more summer precipitation during the “wet” early Holocene would be ca 330 mm; 50% less summer precipitation during the “dry” LGM would be ca 110 mm; Fig. 2). Ellipses indicate conditions at time periods in the Lake Qinghai d13Cwax record, outline color corresponds to precipitation conditions, fill corresponds to dominant photosynthetic pathway (C3, white; C4, yellow), ellipses cover the temperature range for that time period based on 20% temperature amplification at Lake Qinghai relative to the CLP (X. Liu et al., 2009; Peterse et al., 2011; see SI). Black dots and bars are ranges of projected pCO2 and temperature at Lake Qinghai in 2040e2059 AD from CMIP5 simulations using emissions scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 (Taylor et al., 2011). (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.). CCSM3, was low throughout the glacial period (Figs. 2 and 3, and S3; see SI; Z. Liu et al., 2009; An et al., 2012). Although these harsh conditions were more favorable for C3 plants (Fig. 5), two distinct intervals exhibit rapid shifts to elevated C4 plant abundance: 21.0e 20.0 ka (average 40%, range 20%e70%) and 17.5e15.8 ka (average 35%, range 25%e60%). We interpret these peaks in d13Cwax as a local plant community response to changes in lake level during the coldest and driest portion of the glacial period (23e15 ka; Figs. 3 and 4). 4.1.1. C4 plants may have colonized dry, salty lake beds during the glacial period The most likely reason for the large (up to 10&) intermittent increases in d13Cwax from 21 to 15 ka (Fig. 3) is an increase in C4 plant abundance. This is a surprising finding, however, because the conditions on the Tibetan Plateau during the glacial period were extremely cold and dry, inhibiting most primary productivity, and certainly not favorable to warm-adapted C4 plants (Figs. 3 and 5). We propose one possible interpretation of these brief d13Cwax increases: Lake Qinghai level dropped during the dry glacial period, so cold-, salt-, drought-tolerant C4 Chenopodiaceae s.s. colonized the dry, salty Lake Qinghai bed. Summer monsoon precipitation was low during the glacial period, and westerly wind strength decreased starting ca 23 ka (Fig. 3; An et al., 2012), so total precipitation likely decreased, causing the Lake Qinghai level to drop. Modeled water balance (precipitation minus evaporation) was low during maximum glacial conditions, further evidence for enhanced aridity in the Lake Qinghai catchment (Fig. 2). Submerged beach ridges and sandy-silt layers that date to ca 19 ka indicate low levels at Lake Qinghai (Colman et al., 2007). Aquatic plant pollen is not readily transported over long distances (Cook, 1988), so the presence of abundant aquatic plant pollen at the drill site from 21 to 15 ka suggests that aquatic plants were growing near the drill site (Fig. 3; Ji et al., 2005; S. Xue, personal communication). These plants generally root in water that is <7 m deep (Sheldon and Boylen, 1977), so this provides further evidence for lower Lake Qinghai levels. Other records at Lake Qinghai and elsewhere in Tibet indicate dry conditions and lower lake levels during the glacial period (Herzschuh et al., 2010; Mügler et al., 2010; An et al., 2012; X. Liu et al., 2013; Y. Wang et al., 2013). The Qinghai lake bed did not desiccate completely, however, as sedimentation was continuous with no evidence for subaerial exposure at the drill site, located at the depocenter of the lake (An et al., 2012). Glacier maxima in the Dalijia Mountains, 220 km southeast of Lake Qinghai, at 21.8 1.5 ka and 17.3 1.5 ka, are evidence of maximum cold conditions, corresponding to the lowest temperatures reconstructed on the CLP (Fig. 4; Peterse et al., 2011; J. Wang et al., 2013). Despite cold and arid conditions, low pCO2 would have favored C4 plants (Figs. 4 and 5; Jouzel et al., 2007). Chenopodiaceae s.s. are early succession plants, and C4 photosynthesis is more abundant in Chenopodiaceae s.s. lineages that exhibit salttolerance and succulence, both of which would have been critical adaptations to surviving the arid glacial period on the Tibetan Plateau (Pyankov et al., 2000; Wang, 2007; Kadereit et al., 2012). Chenopodiaceae s.s. pollen was abundant (20e40%) during the glacial d13Cwax peaks (Fig. 3; Ji et al., 2005; S. Xue, personal communication). We hypothesize that C4 Chenopodiaceae s.s. colonized the exposed, salty lake bed when Lake Qinghai levels dropped during the glacial period. This increase in C4 Chenopodiaceae s.s. would have been a local phenomenon, constrained to exposed lake beds (Fig. S1). This hypothesis can be tested in future studies: other desiccated lake beds may also show intermittent increases in d13Cwax, whereas terrestrial sediment deposits (e.g., loess) on the Tibetan Plateau would not contain evidence for these d13Cwax increases. 4.2. Transition to the Lateglacial period At ca 16 ka, the westerly winds strengthened, likely in response to Heinrich Event 1 (H1; Sun et al., 2011; An et al., 2012). From 16 to 14.5 ka, tree pollen increased in abundance and d13Cwax decreased, indicating that C3 plants dominated during H1 (Fig. 3; Ji et al., 2005). Immediately following H1, d13Cwax increased, but returned to consistently low values (32&) from 14.5 to 13.7 ka. Artemisia represented 80% of pollen from 14.5 to 13.7 ka, which would explain the strong C3 plant signal in d13Cwax. Other proxies indicate increasing temperature, increasing summer precipitation, and increasing seasonal insolation contrast during this time period (Figs. 3 and 4, and S4), so it is unclear why the d13Cwax and pollen suggest stable ecological conditions from 14.5 to 13.7 ka. 4.3. C4 plants were abundant on the Tibetan Plateau during the Lateglacial and early Holocene During the Lateglacial and early Holocene (13.7e8.3 ka), Lake Qinghai d13Cwax ranged from 29.5 to 21.8&, corresponding to an average of 50% C4 plants (Fig. 3). We hypothesize that this increase in C4 plant abundance was caused by a combination of environmental changes: high seasonal insolation contrast, moderate pCO2 and warm conditions, and greater summer precipitation. Winter insolation was low and summer insolation was high at Lake Qinghai during the early Holocene, resulting in a seasonal insolation contrast of ca 350 W m2 (Fig. S4; Laskar et al., 2004). E.K. Thomas et al. / Quaternary Science Reviews 87 (2014) 24e33 Cold winters and springs likely inhibited C3 plant growth, whereas short, hot, wet summers favored C4 plant productivity (Ehleringer et al., 1997; Pyankov et al., 2000). Global pCO2 was 240e 260 ppmv (Jouzel et al., 2007), values that favor C4 photosynthesis only at higher temperatures (Fig. 5; Ehleringer et al., 1997). Lateglacial and early Holocene temperature was 1e3 C higher than present, according to a pollen record from Lake Luanhaizi in the nearby Qilian mountains, the CCSM3 transient simulation, and the temperature reconstruction on the CLP (Figs. 2 and 4; Z. Liu et al., 2009; Herzschuh et al., 2010; Peterse et al., 2011). Precipitation increased from 13.7 to 12 ka and peaked 12 to 8 ka, according to d18Oostracode from Lake Qinghai, the pollen record from Lake Luanhaizi, and the CCSM3 transient simulation (Figs. 2e4; Liu et al., 2007; Z. Liu et al., 2009; Herzschuh et al., 2010; An et al., 2012). Higher lake levels, suggesting wetter conditions, existed throughout Tibet during the early Holocene, including at Lake Donggi Cona, 200 km southwest of Lake Qinghai (Dietze et al., 2013; Hudson and Quade, 2013). Warmer conditions were favorable for primary production, as indicated by increased pollen flux at ca 14.8 ka and multiple bulk organic geochemical proxies from Lake Qinghai (Fig. 3; An et al., 2012; X. Liu et al., 2013). Poaceae and Chenopodiaceae s.s. each composed 10e20% of total pollen flux during the Lateglacial and early Holocene, Chenopodiaceae s.s. pollen increased slightly during the Younger Dryas (Fig. 3; Ji et al., 2005). Tree pollen decreased to 10% during the Younger Dryas, and increased abruptly to 20% at the end of the Younger Dryas, when total pollen counts also increased. Although the existing data do not distinguish C3 from C4 plant pollen, the 10& increase in d13Cwax cannot be explained by changes in C3 plant water stress, and so C4 plants must have flourished during the Lateglacial and early Holocene. Relatively warm, wet conditions, occurring at a time of maximum seasonal contrast during the Lateglacial and early Holocene, would be favorable to both C4 Poaceae and C4 Chenopodiaceae s.s. This increase in C4 plant abundance may have resulted from a few extant taxa that proliferated on the QinghaieTibetan Plateau during this period, or may have resulted from C4 plant species shifting to higher elevations as climate became more conducive to their growth (Fig. S1). In either case, the Lateglacial and early Holocene increase in C4 plant abundance was driven by regional and global environmental conditions, and therefore C4 plants were likely dominant throughout the region around Lake Qinghai. 4.4. Mid-Holocene development of a C3-plant-dominated ecosystem The mid-Holocene d13Cwax decrease is mirrored by decreasing bulk organic matter d13C (X. Liu et al., 2013). Aquatic plants exert only a minimal influence on d13Cwax, so we can more confidently conclude that this decrease in carbon isotope values is due to a decrease in C4 plant biomass. The initial decline of C4 plants during the mid-Holocene (8e6 ka) coincided with high counts of tree pollen, as well as decreasing precipitation and insolation, as well as decreasing seasonal contrast (Figs. 2e4, and S4; Laskar et al., 2004; Ji et al., 2005; Peterse et al., 2011; An et al., 2012). C3 plants dominated the Lake Qinghai catchment after ca 6 ka, coincident with high pCO2 and modeled increasing May temperatures and winter precipitation, which favored C3 plant productivity (Figs. 2e 4; Still et al., 2003). Whereas arboreal pollen declined during the late Holocene, likely due to decreased precipitation (Herzschuh et al., 2009), Chenopodiaceae s.s. and Poaceae remained constant, suggesting that C3 plants within these clades became dominant, replacing C4 Chenopodiaceae s.s. and Poaceae that had dominated during the early Holocene (Fig. 3). Today, high pCO2 means that most C4 plant communities are near the edge of their ecological 31 niche, especially those in cold regions (Fig. 5). The predicted 2e3 C temperature increase on the Tibetan Plateau by 2050 AD will not be sufficient to offset the deleterious effects of 450e500 ppmv CO2, likely resulting in the demise of C4 plants in cold, dry, highelevation regions (Fig. 5; Taylor et al., 2011). 4.5. C4 plants in high-elevation ecosystems In contrast to the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, high-elevation sites in equatorial Africa and South America hosted flourishing C4 plant communities during the glacial period. The different timing of maximum C4 plant abundance is likely due to different temperatures and seasonal contrasts. The equatorial sites had higher mean annual temperatures than the northeastern Tibetan Plateau during the glacial period (Figs. 4 and S4). Seasonal insolation contrast is minimal at the equator, ranging from 40 to 60 W m2, with minimum insolation contrast occurring during the glacial period when there were maximum C4 plants (Fig. S4; Berger et al., 2006). Thus, seasonal insolation contrast may not play a dominant role in plant ecosystem variability at the equator. Instead C4 plants flourished during the glacial period likely due to sufficiently warm rainy seasons and low pCO2 (Figs. 4 and S4; Jouzel et al., 2007; Loomis et al., 2012). At latitudes similar to Lake Qinghai but at lower elevation on the CLP, C4 plants rarely exceeded 40% abundance. Despite their relatively low abundance, C4 plants persisted on the CLP until the late Holocene, perhaps due to warmer, wetter summers (Fig. 4; Zhang et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2005). 5. Conclusions Our paleoecological data demonstrate that C4 plants can thrive on the Tibetan Plateau, and provide benchmarks for ecosystem models that infer <0.5% C4 plants on the Tibetan Plateau today. The CCSM3 transient simulation infers 0% C4 grasses even during time periods when Lake Qinghai d13Cwax suggests up to 50% C4 plants (Figs. 1 and 3, and S5; Still et al., 2003; Z. Liu et al., 2009). Although we have evidence for abundant C4 plant biomass around Lake Qinghai during the glacial period, it will be most important to correctly model the increase in C4 plant abundance during the Lateglacial and early Holocene, which was likely a more widespread phenomenon. Arid- and cold-adapted Chenopodiaceae s.s. likely evolved C4 photosynthesis as a further adaptation to cold, dry, salty conditions on the Tibetan Plateau (Kadereit et al., 2012), and therefore do not fit with the warm, wet thresholds for C4 plants that are currently incorporated into ecosystem models (Collatz et al., 1998; Still et al., 2003). As the spatial resolution of climate and ecosystem models increases, it will be necessary to account for unusual ecosystem dynamics, including cold-, arid-, salt-adapted C4 Chenopodiaceae s.s., in spatially heterogenous, high-elevation regions. The combination of saline soils, high irradiance, and summerfocused precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau inherently favor C4 plants, whereas cool conditions and high pCO2 favor C3 plants. A delicate ecological balance therefore exists on the Tibetan Plateau and in other high-elevation regions, where we document large paleoecological transitions between C3 and C4 plants. Lake Qinghai d13Cwax provides a paleoecological perspective for studies of modern distributions of C4 plants, which find that temperature, precipitation, and pCO2 all play important roles (Ehleringer et al., 1997; Collatz et al., 1998; Sage et al., 1999; Edwards and Smith, 2010; Kadereit et al., 2012). Due to relatively high pCO2 today, C4 plant communities in cold, dry, high-elevation regions are at the edge of their ecological niche, and will likely decline further as pCO2 increases (Taylor et al., 2011). 32 E.K. Thomas et al. / Quaternary Science Reviews 87 (2014) 24e33 Author contributions YH designed the study; EKT, JZ, PW, and LG performed sample preparation and analysis; EKT, YH, SMC, and SCC performed data analysis and interpretation; CM provided model output and analysis; EKT wrote the main paper and the Supplementary Information, with input from YH, CM, SMC, and SCC. Acknowledgments We thank R. Tarozo for lab assistance and E. J. Edwards and one anonymous reviewer for providing feedback on the manuscript. We thank the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program, the United States National Science Foundation, the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the Ministry of Science and Technology of China for their support for the Lake Qinghai Drilling Project, which was led in part by A. Zhisheng. We thank Z. Liu and B. Otto-Bliesner for sharing CCSM3 output. The CCSM3 transient simulation is supported by the P2C2 program at the US National Science Foundation, the Abrupt Change Program, EaSM program, and INCITE computing program at the US Department of Energy, and NCAR. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table S1) for producing and making available their model output. 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